BACLIAT - Business Adaptaiton

Climate Ready

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool

Introduction 1

Section 1: Assessing the impacts of a changing climate 2

Section 2: The business case for adapting to a changing climate 4

Section 3: Climate change projections for the 21st Century 6

Section 4: BACLIAT Workshop 10

Section 5: Threats and opportunities for all sectors

arising from a changing climate 15

Examples of Sectoral Impacts 19

Building design and construction 22

Business, e.g. Motor manufacturing 25

Section 6: Further support 28

Contents

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool 1

This report presents an overview of climate change impacts and shows how the BACLIAT tool can be used in a workshop setting to help businesses and organisations adapt to the changing climate.

BACLIAT is aimed at business managers as well as those in business-facing organisations and is based on practical experience of working with businesses. The BACLIAT process can also be tailored to suit the needs of non-business organisations.

Originally developed by UKCIP, BACLIAT has been updated and incorporated into the Environment Agency’s Climate Ready Support Service.

Introduction

The weather already significantly affects economic activity. As the climate changes, all sectors of UK business will be faced with preparing for a range of new threats and opportunities.

2 BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

The Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool (BACLIAT) provides a simple process for organisations to assess the potential impacts of climate change on their business.

BACLIAT can be used at the level of a single organisation or an entire business sector. It recognises that a changing climate affects all business areas, and not just the more obvious ones of product design or service delivery.

BACLIAT invites consideration of the opportunities as well as the threats from a changing climate, under the following headings:

• logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure

• finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation

• markets: changing demand for goods and services

• process: impacts on production processes and service delivery

• people: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

• premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management

• management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

Section 1: Assessing the impacts of a changing climate


The basis of all climate change impacts assessment is to consider the expected changes to the climate and ask the question: ‘What will this do to my sector or business?’. Using your own knowledge or that of other specialists, you can then suggest what will be the likely ‘threats’ and ‘opportunities’ of different climatic conditions. In speculating about future impacts it is useful to start by considering how weather currently affects your operations, and those of your competitors and sector.

These initial assessments of impacts can form part of the first tier of the risk-based approach to decision making. It is important to keep a record of the assessment process so that it can be revisited and reviewed as part of a robust risk assessment process.

Example assessments for generic impacts on sectors can be found in Section 5.

Before you can begin your BACLIAT assessment you will need to define the context for your enquiry.

The context is defined under these seven headings.

• time: over what time period are you interested in the climate impacts?

• location: where are you interested in finding out about climate change impacts?

• greenhouse gas emissions: how should you take account of different projections for greenhouse gas emissions?

• sector: which sector(s) are you considering?

• socio-economic outlook: what will the UK and your sector look like in the time period you are considering?

• business areas: which business areas within your organisation are at greatest risk?

• climate variables: which are the important climate variables when considering climate impacts?

Business organisations are encouraged to make use of a risk-based approach to decision making, particularly where long-term planning or investment is involved.

Section 1: continued


An understanding of the likely business risks and opportunities, and why a planned approach should be taken is also required (see Figure 1). Some companies will also be driven to adapt by regulatory and other requirements.

Managing risks and exploiting opportunitiesThe climate impacts summarised in Section 5 will directly affect sales, productivity, input costs and overheads, and could translate to a range of new or increasing business risks (see Figure 1). The impacts of climate change could also present some strategic opportunities for business. For example, there may be business development opportunities arising from new or growing markets, new production possibilities, or opportunities arising from being better placed than competitors to deal with climate risks (first mover advantage).

Regulatory and other requirementsThe Climate Change Act 2008 created a framework for building the UK’s capacity to adapt. Under the Act, the UK government has the power to require public authorities and some businesses such as utilities and transport operators to report how they are assessing and managing the risks of climate change. Its influence could extend much further throughout the public and private sectors through supply chains, and growing awareness of climate vulnerabilities highlighted by the National Risk Assessment (NAP), also part of the Climate Change Act.

Other requirements that could drive business adaptation include:

• planning policy

• thresholds within contracts or service level agreements (for example, a facilities management company being required to guarantee they will not close the building for more than 3 days in a year)

• requirements for contractors to local authorities that have adaptation as a local priority

Potential future requirements include:

• updating of industry codes and standards to take account of the changing climate

• legal upper temperature limit for workplaces

• requirements of insurers or insurance products that take account of the climate risk

Section 2: The business case for adapting to a changing climate

The business case for adapting to a changing climate can be made in terms of maximising profits, managing risks and making the most of strategic opportunities.


Why take a planned approach?Climate change is an on-going, long-term phenomenon with a degree of uncertainty attached to it and as such it is often difficult to see how its effects can be managed within the short planning horizons of a commercial organisation. Therefore, it is tempting to wait for changes to take effect and respond to them as they happen. Much adaptation will be passive or occur in a reactive way. However, this is inherently a more risky approach and a planned approach is more likely to lead to efficient adaptation. Four arguments for taking a planned approach to adaptation are outlined below.

1. Difficulty in recognising the climate signal. Weather and climate are different. Weather is what happens outside your window each day. Climate is a long term trend (usually over 30 years). Consequently extreme weather events can make the longer term climate trends harder to see, allowing uncertainty to creep into the decision-making process.

2. Adaptive capacity needs to be built over time. For example, information may be required in order to: determine the best adaptation option; understand synergies and conflicts in the broader context; re-write relevant policies, plans and procedures; and assign roles and responsibilities. All of this requires a certain amount of forward planning and time.

3. Retrofitting is often more expensive. Maintenance programmes, new buildings or the replacement of old equipment represent an opportunity to take account of the future climate even if no impacts are currently being felt. Although there may be costs associated with this, in many cases it is likely to be cheaper in the long run.

4. Planning ahead is still possible in the face of uncertainty. It is true that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding future climate impacts. A risk-based approach allows you to make decisions in the face of uncertainty and is more likely to lead to efficient adaptation.

Figure 1: Building the business case for adaptation. Image adapted

from UKCIP Changing climate for business, 2010.


The scientific case for climate change

A range of risks & opportunities

The case for a planned approach3

1

2

Page 4

Page 6

Pages 10

Potential impacts on:

• Markets

• Logistics

• Process

• Finance

• People

• Premises

Climate change

• Reputational risk

• Environmental risk

• Operational risk

• Financial risk

• Health & safety risk

• Strategic risk

• Production opportunity

• Market opportunity


Section 3: Climate change projections for the 21st Century

In the UK climate change is expected to mean the following:

Changes to the long-term/seasonal averages:

• generally warmer, drier summers

• milder, wetter winters

• rising sea levels

Changes in extremes:

• more very hot days

• more intense downpours of rain

• fewer days with frost

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk give projections for a range of climate variables at a resolution of 25 km across the UK. Projections are made for three emissions scenarios (High, Medium and Low), which make different assumptions about future technologies and economic growth, and therefore the levels of greenhouse gas emissions we can expect.

Dealing with uncertaintyThere is a high level of certainty that climate change is happening and is being largely driven by greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are uncertainties relating to the future rates and geographical distribution of these changes. In order to help deal with this, the UKCP09 projections are probabilistic in nature, allowing users to identify the change associated with different levels of confidence.

Figures 2 and 3 show a small selection of the information available from UKCP09 at the 10, 50 and 90% probability levels. The current evidence suggests that the change is very unlikely to be less than that indicated by the 10% probability level, or more than indicated by the 90% probability level.

Unavoidable climate change in the UK.

http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk



Figure 2: Change in winter and summer precipitation for the 2050s (2040–2069)

under the High emissions scenario. Image © UK Climate Projections 2009

Figure 3: Change in summer mean temperature for the 2050s (2040–2069)

under the High emissions scenario. Image © UK Climate Projections 2009

–70 –50 –30 –10 0 10 30 50 70

10% probability levelVery unlikely to be less than

50% probability levelCentral estimate

90% probability levelVery unlikely to be greater than

Win

ter

Sum

mer

Change in summer mean temperature (ºC) for the 2050s, High emissions scenario

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10% probability levelVery unlikely to be less than

50% probability levelCentral estimate

90% probability levelVery unlikely to be greater than

Sum

mer


Unavoidable climate changeDue to the inertia in the climate system, we are already committed to a certain amount of climate change as a result of the greenhouse gases emitted in the past. The time lag between emission and the resulting temperature change is around 30–40 years. Figure 4 shows the effect on projected global temperature of past greenhouse gas emissions, which will influence our climate until around the mid-century. These are changes that we are already committed to. Although it is important to reduce emissions now to avoid the amount of change that is associated with the top of the High emissions line in Figure 4, we also need to adapt to the changes that are unavoidable.

What about extremes?The maps in Figures 2 and 3 show seasonal averages. However, it is often the extremes of climate that are the main concern for business. The UKCP09 probabilistic projections and the Weather Generator (WG) allow users to explore changes in the frequency of some extreme events. Table 1 shows the sort of information that can be obtained using the Weather Generator. In this case, the expected increase in the annual number of warm days is shown for the 2040s under the High emissions scenario.

Global climate changeIncreasingly, businesses operate in global markets and rely on global supply networks. Thus the way the climate is expected to change outside the UK will have implications for businesses based here as they make plans to adapt. For example, in Asia, as well as increasing temperatures, we currently expect increasing precipitation across most of the continent, an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, snow melt leading to floods and water shortages in areas that already suffer from water stress. Figure 5 shows the expected increase in hot days and heavy rainfall days in Asia.


Location Baseline (1961–1990) 2040s

London 15 50

Derry 1 3

Plymouth 3 21

Table 1: Estimated annual number of warm days (temperature greater than 25°C) (High emissions scenario, central estimate)

Source: UK Climate Projections, 2009



0

1

2

3

4

5

210020902080207020602050204020302020201020001990

Tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

(ºC)

Year

High emissions

Low emissions

Figure 4: Temperature change associated with High and Low emissions scenarios over the

21st century. Image © UK Climate Projections 2009

Source: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, 2007. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.

Hanson (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/figure-10-2.html

Figure 5: Projected number of hot days (>30°C) and heavy rainfall days (>100 mm/day) in Asia

21002080206020402020200019801960194019201990

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Num

ber o

f hot

day

s (>

30 C

)

21002080206020402020200019801960194019201990

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

Num

ber o

f hea

vy ra

infa

ll da

ys

(100

mm

/day

)

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/figure-10-2.html


Section 4: BACLIAT Workshop

Business areas and future climateThe objective of this workshop is to draw upon employee knowledge to brainstorm potential future impacts of climate change on a business, organisation or sector.

The objective of this workshop is to draw upon employee knowledge to brainstorm potential future impacts of climate change on a business, organisation or sector.

You can run BACLIAT workshops:

• at an individual company

• within departments/divisions of larger organisations

• for a sector group

• to raise awareness of a group of business managers from several companies

You can expect the following outcomes:

• increased awareness of the range of threats and opportunities that climate change could bring, many of which will not have been experienced in the past

• a good idea of how climate risks are spread across different business areas

You will be in a better position to:

• carry out a climate change risk assessment

The workshop process has four steps:

1 Underpinning knowledgeBefore the workshop, make sure you understand how the climate is likely to change and the difference between climate and weather

2 Preparing for the workshopMake sure you have everything you need to deliver a successful workshop

3 Running the workshop Step by step guide to how to deliver the workshop

4 After the workshopThoughts and ideas about how to use the meeting outputs to contribute towards developing strategy and policy


Step 1: Underpinning knowledgeIn the UK we can generally expect the following from climate change:

• warmer, drier summers

• milder and wetter winters

• rising sea levels

• more very hot days and heatwaves

• more intense downpours of rain

• a possible increase in storms in the winter

Before you start assessing the potential impacts of future climate change, it is important to be clear on the difference between weather and climate. Climatedescribes the average and variability of weather over an extended period (usually 30 years). The weather describes what is happening at any point in time including events such as heatwaves, rain,snow, sleet and high winds.

In most cases it is extreme weather events that affect businesses rather than climate trends.

BACLIAT Business AreasBACLIAT uses a set of six generic business areas, developed in partnership with a range of UK trade associations and professional bodies. These six areas are designed to be applicable to any type of business or sector. Under each there will be several potential threats and benefits for your business arising from climate change.

The six areas are:

• Markets

• Process

• Logistics

• People

• Premises

• Finance

The six headings and some generic impacts are given in Table 2. Running the workshop will uncover impacts specific to your business.



Table 2: Generic impacts in BACLIAT business areas

Business area Generic impacts

Markets • Increasing or decreasing demand for some products and services • New requirements of existing products and services • Emerging markets for new products and services • Changing customer behaviour • Marketing opportunities • Unable to satisfy increased demand or segments of the market • Competitors’ position enhanced or reduced by climate change • Advantages for early movers in response to changed markets and lifestyles

Process • Impacts on climate-sensitive processes or equipment • Impacts on climate-sensitive activities • Exceedence of limits set out in policies, procedures or contracts

Logistics • Disruption of supply chain due to transport disruption • Disruption of supply chain due to impact on suppliers • Disruption of supply chain due to raw material price or availability • Disruption to utilities supply • Changing packaging or distribution process requirements

People • Impacts on thermal comfort of employees • Impacts on thermal comfort of customers, suppliers or others • Impacts of inclement weather on outdoor staff • Recruitment-related issues • Business implications of climate-driven social trends

Premises • Damage or degradation of building fabric • Impacts on the internal environment • Impacts on the outdoor environment

Finance • Insurance related issues • Investment related issues • Potential new liabilities



Step 2: Preparing for the workshopReviewCheck the six generic business areas (markets, process, logistics, people, premises and finance) are appropriate for your company/sector. You may wish to amend these areas; for example, you could use the headings offered by the CBI report,* or develop a set of headings that match your organisational structure. The latter approach may be useful when moving towards assigning responsibility for implementing adaptation measures.

* Future Proof: Preparing your Business for a Changing Climate, CBI,

2009 www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/CBI_Futureproof

_Preparing-business-for-CC.pdf (398KB)

Who to invite• The wider the range of participants involved (for

example representatives from different business area, functions, locations, responsibilities etc.) the richer the output will be.

• Give yourself about an hour – though larger companies or those with a wide variety of location or activities may need longer.

Step 3: Running the workshopYou will need the following to run the workshop

• Flipchart paper

• Post-it notes

• Pens

• Blu Tack

• Sticky dots

Additionally you may wish to prepare a presentation or handout outlining the extreme weather events you have experienced and the expected longer term changes to the climate.

The Workshop• Explain the purpose of the workshop. If you are

planning to use it as a starting point for a climate risk assessment, explain where it fits into the bigger picture.

• Provide participants with the headline climate change messages.

• Explain that you are going to look at ‘how to live with the changing climate’ (adaptation) and how it is different from ‘reducing greenhouse gas emissions’ (mitigation).

• Ask participants to think about the first business area, e.g. Markets. What are the opportunities and challenges the organisation will face in the future as a result of the changing climate?

• Encourage participants to think of things that have happened in the past and could become more frequent with climate change as well as more imaginative suggestions of impacts that have not yet happened.

• On post-it notes, ask participants to write their thoughts and stick them on to the sheet in the appropriate column.

• As the number of post-its builds, think about grouping similar thoughts together.

• Repeat the process for each of the theme headings. Once the group has grasped the idea, you could try completing 2 sheets at a time.

Don’t worry about ideas being captured under the ‘wrong’ headings. Similarly it does not matter about duplication, as this can be tidied up before the information is used as part of a climate risk assessment or other study.

• Once all the sheets are completed, give participants a limited number of sticky dots. Ask them to vote with the dots for the ideas that are the most urgent to tackle for the business / organisation, or some other criteria that suits your requirements.

• Use the results of this ‘dotmocracy’ to form the basis of a management response, which could include the adoption of climate risk in policies and process such as marketing, facilities management, process efficiency, business resilience planning, insurance, investment, risk registers etc.


http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/CBI_Futureproof_Preparing-business-for-CC.pdf

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/CBI_Futureproof_Preparing-business-for-CC.pdf


Step 4: After the workshopTo use the information for awareness raising or as the start of a climate risk assessment it will need to be tidied up:

• Remove duplicates.

• You can discard the BACLIAT headings in favour of a structure that works for you, for example, to fit with your organisational structure – this allows responsibility for each area of risks to be assigned and for the appropriate people to be involved in further discussions.

• Re-express each impact so that it is clear what the climate/weather driver is, where the impact will be felt and what the business consequences are.

• You may also find value in developing a list of climate risks that include past events and events that will continue to happen as climate changes (at a decreased on increased frequency) as well as potential impacts that have not yet been experienced.

Now that you have some idea of how climate change could affect you, you may wish implement a risk assessment to identify a set of priority climate risks or you may wish to use the workshop outputs as part of a more rigorous approach to developing an adaptation plan or strategy, for example by using the Adaptation Wizard.


Threats OpportunitiesManagement Actions

Figure 6: Outputs from the BACLIAT process

Markets

Process

Logistics

People

Premises

Finance


Section 5: Threats and opportunities for all sectors arising from a changing climate The table below shows just a few examples of typical impacts that the BACLIAT workshop can reveal. They can be applied to virtually all business sectors, but should not be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for business.

Threats

• Vulnerability of supplies of goods and services (e.g. raw materials, components)

• Disruption to utilities, especially electricity supply, water supply and sewerage

• Vulnerability of transport and delivery systems for goods and services in and out

Examples of potential impacts

Agriculture: increased demand for water in summer but supply vulnerable in hotter, drier summers

Retail: transport systems vulnerable (e.g. floods, landslips) for delivery of products to retail outlets

Manufacturing: disruption to production through failure of electricity supply from storm damaged power lines.

Manufacturing: vulnerability of ‘just in time’ delivery systems to disruption in transport (see retail above)

Opportunities

• Maintaining supply and transport of goods and services through awareness and adaptation planning

• Create secure systems of water storage and electricity generation on site

Logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure


Finance: implications for investments, insurance and stakeholder reputation

Markets: changing demand for goods and services

Threats

• Failure to climate-proof creates difficulties in securing investment and/or insurance cover at reasonable cost

• Potential liabilities are associated with previous actions which future changes in climate may reveal as vulnerable

• Potential liabilities if climate change is not factored into long-term decisions about the future

Threats

• Decreased or disappearing demand for present range of goods and/or services

• Competitors’ position enhanced by changing climate


Insurance policies: check stance of Association of British Insurers on undefended flood risks and impacts on premiums

Investment issues: possibility of new tests for climate-proofing of development projects and Operating and Financial Review (OFR) reporting

Liabilities: new liabilities on historic projects may occur but remedial action is unlikely to be cost-effective

Future developments: improved specification that takes account of future climate is likely to be cost-effective in most (but not all) cases


Tourism: Mediterranean summer becomes too hot so more holidays taken in UK

Agriculture: more demand for warm weather food and drink products

Urban lifestyles: warmer summers encourage al-fresco eating, pavement cafes, siestas

Leisure: less snow for winter sports in Scotland and Alps

Opportunities

• Evidence of climate-proofing enhances reputation with all stakeholders, provides security for investment and opportunity for reduced insurance premiums

• Potential risks reduced and liabilities diminished through pro-active risk assessment and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies

Opportunities

• New products or modifications to existing products to respond to changing market

• Become an early mover in response to changed markets and lifestyles

• Undertake market research and product development with climate change in mind




Process: impacts on production processes and service delivery

People: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

Threats

• Increased difficulties or entirely new problems affecting production process and service delivery arising from increased temperature (especially in the south), extreme events of storms and torrential rain

Threats

• Threat to working conditions and travel arrangements for staff

• Failure to attract or retain staff through reputation as poor employer (e.g. business not climate proofed, no training on impacts and adaptation)


Building construction: fewer delays on site through frosts but vulnerability of structure during construction from more torrential rain and storm damage

Food and drink production: additional temperature control required

Leisure: pitches, parks, golf links vulnerable to drought

Engineering: greater temperature control required for sensitive production processes


Agriculture, construction, forestry: external workforce exposed to increased sunlight and temperatures in summer

Offices, retail etc.: internal environment uncomfortable as a result of increased summer temperatures

Housing: more northerly locations could become more attractive as residential locations as the south gets hotter

Leisure: generally more outdoor activity

Opportunities

• Some aspects of production process or service delivery made easier as a result of changing climate (e.g. fewer frosts to damage agricultural crops)

Opportunities

• Opportunity to improve working conditions for staff

• Opportunity to improve travel arrangements for staff (e.g. walk/cycle)

• Reputational opportunities as good employer increases recruitment and retention of high quality staff

• Avoid high cost technical fixes by low cost management fixes (e.g. siestas)



Premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management

Management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

Threats

• Vulnerability due to proximity to potential riverine, coastal and urban flooding

• Building fabric vulnerable to wind, rain and storm

• Building structure vulnerable to storm and subsidence

• Internal environment: challenge of coping with increased summer temperatures (without adding to greenhouse gases)

Threats

• Business failure or reduced profits if climate change is not included in policy, management structure and procedures nor in job descriptions of appropriate staff and not supported by senior management


All building projects: need to insist on use of future rather than historic climate data for both new-build and refurbishment

Major infrastructure investment: systematic risk assessment should include climate change alongside other risks

Retail sites: Premises inaccessible due to car park flooding

Existing buildings: challenge of refurbishing to climate-proofed standards


Climate risks treated as risk management exercise:

• risk analysis undertaken (and ignored if no real risk!) and integrated with other decision-making procedures

• inclusion of climate risks in appropriate management policies

• identification of appropriate roles and responsibilities of key members of staff

• help to build capacity in other organisations where some of the risk is located (e.g. suppliers)

Opportunities

• Include expected climate through lifetime of building in specification for sustainable design and construction of new-build

• Maintain, manage and refurbish premises to an enhanced specification to anticipate climate change

• Optimise location of premises with regard to flooding, logistics and employee preference in new development

Opportunities

• Pro-actively manage climate impacts and adaptation issues

• Adopt risk management approach to management of climate change issues

• ‘Mainstream’ climate impacts and adaptation into conventional business strategy and management



Examples of Sectoral ImpactsAgriculture


Finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation

Threats

• More refrigerated distribution and storage required and problems with livestock transportation in summer heat conditions

• Floods, landslips and so on disrupting transport infrastructure in the short- and long- term, creating problems with raw materials in and goods out

• Limited availability of water (Section 57 of Water Resources Act restricts agricultural use of water) and potential interruption of supply (and/or cost increase) to irrigation systems in glasshouses and poly-tunnels

Threats

• Investment in equipment ties farmer into the relevant crop until capital is paid off, so difficult to change crops

• Agriculture perceived as a poor industry in which to invest as it is vulnerable to climate change

• Investment may not be available to respond to impacts of changing climate (e.g. hardstanding around buildings to deal with winter mud)

Opportunities

• Supplying local markets either in UK generally or very locally, provides for local sourcing and regional distinctiveness offering a new marketing approach with reduced food miles

• On-site processing to supply local markets and add value

• Build relationships with water companies for farmers to provide water storage facility on their land and provide on-site water storage generally

Opportunities

• Consider risks and opportunities of climate change within (say) a 5 year business plan

• Evidence of climate-proofing business improves reputation with investors, insurers and other stakeholders and may liberate investment funding

The table below shows the outcomes of the BACLIAT checklist applied to businesses in the agriculture sector. These are edited highlights from a CCFB workshop using the BACLIAT checklist – they are not to be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for this sector.






Threats

• Loss of traditional markets, loss of local competitive advantage, and new competition in existing markets (e.g. as a result of global climate change)

• Quality issues relating to climate (e.g. overheating of grain) and supermarkets demanding washed produce – which is very water intensive

• Maintaining a supply to markets

Threats

• Existing crops may no longer be viable in new climate conditions

• Problems of access to land especially in flood or torrential rain conditions

• Less frequent frosts will affect quality of certain crops, reduce soil conditioning and reduce kill-off of pests and diseases

• Water quality reduced in summer

Threats

• Difficult to respond to increased demand for staff leading to staff shortages or unskilled staff

• Staff need training in new skills associated with new crops, new technologies and new approaches to land management

• Exposure of workforce to increased sun and skin cancer risk

Opportunities

• UK can compete with other countries by growing new products that need a warmer climate

• Changing customer demand in response to climate (more salads and fresh fruits)

• Diversification into new areas such as tourism, biomass, renewables and manufacturing (hemp)

Opportunities

• New species and varieties of plants can be grown (e.g. English vineyards for English wines) and new types of livestock (e.g. buffalo for English mozzarella)

• Crops for renewable energy and transport fuel

• Better growing conditions (higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide) for existing crops will increase productivity

Opportunities

• Possible increased local employment opportunities arising from new crops, livestock etc.

• Provide staff training to respond to diversification of employment patterns, new crops, technologies, land management etc.





Threats

• Farm buildings vulnerable to extremes of wind, summer heat, driving rain – a particular concern for animal welfare (e.g. summer shade for pigs)

• Curtilages to buildings vulnerable to extreme downpours of rain, flash flooding and increased run-off and erosion

• Existing buildings not adapted to new climate, especially in hot summer conditions

Threats

• Diversification generally including cultivation of new crops could mean that farmers are moving into areas in which they have no experience and are therefore more vulnerable

• Risk of reactive adaptation rather than adaptation responses based on long-term planning

• More outsourcing and use of contractors could mean that farmers are less flexible and more reliant on contractors

Opportunities

• Generally milder winters requiring less winter housing for livestock

• Farmers diversifying can convert existing buildings to other uses (e.g. residential accommodation and tourist information/education centres) designed to take account of future climates

• Threat to existing buildings provides an opportunity to create climate-proofed new buildings

Opportunities

• Consider risks and opportunities of climate change within (say) a 5 year business plan

• Staff development – training and education could include overseas trips to other farms that are

growing crops which UK will be able to grow in new climatic conditions


Building design and construction




Threats

• Flooding, especially flash flooding, will disrupt transport for site deliveries

• Site work more difficult therefore more pre-fabrication – therefore longer delivery lines for materials/components that will be vulnerable to extreme events, and generate more carbon dioxide emissions

• Utilities generally (energy distribution, drainage infrastructure) vulnerable to extreme weather events

Threats

• Construction industry needs clarification of design standards in the face of changing climate and performance indicators of well-adapted buildings

• Implications for insurance (of buildings, professional indemnity, employers liability) for existing buildings, new buildings and during the construction process

Opportunities

• Specify building solutions where production is close to point of use, including pre-fabricated buildings and components

• Use local sourcing to reduce ‘travel miles’ and vulnerability to transport disruption

• Opportunities for timber production (more carbon dioxide growth) for use where ‘lightweight construction’ is appropriate

Opportunities

• Clients attracted to designers and contractors with evidence of climate future-proofing in building projects

• Good risk management will appeal to financiers and insurers and provides opportunity to market risk management expertise

• Good reputation attracts good staff, customers and investors

The table below shows the outcomes of the BACLIAT checklist applied to businesses in the building design and construction sector. These are edited highlights from a CCFB workshop using the BACLIAT checklist – they are not to be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for this sector.





Threats

• Building fabric generally vulnerable to increased temperatures, driving rain and other extreme events

• Could NHBC’s 10 year guarantee period need extending?

• Existing buildings not well-adapted to new climate, especially in hot summer conditions, leading to reduced value of existing buildings if they are not future climate-proofed

Threats

• Excessive heat in summer will affect on-site construction processes

• Need to damp down on-site dust in dry summer conditions

• Extreme rainfall events make muddy site conditions and restrict on-site days

• Partly completed structures more vulnerable to wind and storm damage

Opportunities

• Opportunities for concrete in situations where high thermal mass is appropriate, especially by recycling waste materials from other industries, thereby reducing use of virgin materials

• Specify flood-resistant solutions in vulnerable locations

Opportunities

• Fewer frosts reducing interruptions to on-site processes

• Developing expertise and technology in water management and drainage

• Developing expertise in the design of well-adapted buildings

• Developing expertise in managing construction processes in response to climate change






Threats

• Extreme discomfort in summertime in all building types, especially in the south

• On-site workforce exposed to increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation and temperatures

• Dissatisfied occupants of buildings that are not fit-for-purpose (e.g. building occupiers experiencing flooding, inadequate drainage, lack of solar control and cooling, problems with air tightness, driving rain and winds)

Threats

• Risk of flooding to properties and building sites

• Provision of cooling through installation of air-conditioning will increase capital cost, running costs and emissions of greenhouse gases

• Poor working conditions on site including in site huts particularly in higher summer temperatures

Threats

• Danger of ignoring climate change issues altogether

• Danger of over-reacting to climate change issues

• Unforeseen or unplanned-for regulations

• Ultimately business failure

Opportunities

• Greater comfort and lower fuel bills in winter

• Training staff on climate change issues – including design, on-site activities and so on (applies at many levels, degree, HND, individual trades)

• Some locations that are currently not popular because of poor weather will become more attractive as the climate changes

Opportunities

• Clients will require increased maintenance of existing buildings

• Opportunities for high thermal mass building solutions which can reduce air-conditioning requirements

• Opportunity to develop expertise and reputation in climate-related building issues

Opportunities

• Putting climate change into management and planning systems thus climate future-proofing business and buildings

• Make full use of climate scenarios and other weather prediction services

• Influence regulations, especially Building Regulations, through trade and professional bodies and other stakeholders



Business, e.g. Motor manufacturing



Threats

• Significant supply chain interruptions to intensive production schedules and resulting cost implications

• Vulnerable transport systems, on which global supply chain depends, carrying high value products around the world (e.g. one ship carries £30 million worth of product)

Threats

• Failure to climate-proof company, product range, premises and so on will increase potential for legal action, increase insurance premiums and reduce confidence among investors

Opportunities

• Opportunities for concrete in situations where high thermal mass is appropriate, especially by recycling waste materials from other industries, thereby reducing use of virgin materials

• Specify flood-resistant solutions in vulnerable locations

Opportunities

• Demonstrating that climate risks are integrated into business planning improves reputation with investors, insurers and other stakeholders

The table below shows the outcomes of the BACLIAT checklist applied to businesses in the motor manufacturing sector. These are edited highlights from a CCFB workshop using the BACLIAT checklist – they are not to be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for this sector.






Threats

• Increasing globalisation of markets may require products to operate in even wider range of climates, but many cars already designed to operate in harsher climates

• Vehicles to tolerate new extremes of climate, including greater intensity of rainfall (affecting seals, tolerances, wipers, tyres) and increased need for cooling

Threats

• Process environment will become hotter with increased need for cooling of some sort

• Increased drying time for painted products as a result of increased humidity

Threats

• Possible introduction of regulation on maximum working temperature in process environment

• Health hazards arising from excessive heat and respiratory problems and possible increased absenteeism

Opportunities

• Globalisation of markets may permit a ‘one size fits all’ specification for a wide range of climates

• Design and produce low-energy technologies for cooling interior of vehicles

• Include new technology in vehicles to warn drivers of weather-related hazards

• Increased demand for (summer) recreational vehicles

Opportunities

• Changing holiday patterns of workforce with more even distribution throughout the year will aid continuous production

• Staff training including learning from operation of plant in other climates similar to those expected for the UK





Threats

• Buildings generally vulnerable to extremes of wind, summer heat, driving rain and so on – particularly addressing comfort conditions for workforce and performance conditions for production processes

• Existing buildings difficult to adapt to new climatic conditions

Threats

• Perceived lack of suitable data on future climate as a basis for quantified decision making

• Review vulnerability of supply chain and logistics, particularly extreme events, as these seem to be priority areas

• Some product components and testing regimes may need adaptation to cope with climate change

Opportunities

• Lower heating costs in winter

• Design new buildings in anticipation of changed climate

Opportunities

• Processes may be influenced by climate change but global experience will help the industry to adapt

• Demonstrating that climate risks are integrated into business planning improves reputation with investors, insurers and other stakeholders


Section 6: Further support

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) provide probabilistic information on expected changes in the UK’s climate at a regional level throughout the 21st century. http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

The UKCP09 package also includes a Weather Generator, which enables users to estimate the increasing (or decreasing) frequency of specific weather types such as heatwaves or heavy downpours of rain. The Weather Generator is available through an online facility enabling users to access the information at different levels of detail and to customise it for their purposes.

Other sources of informationEnvironment Agency The Environment Agency provides environmental protection and improvement in England and Wales. It works with businesses and other organisations to prevent damage to the environment by providing education and guidance. www.environment-agency.gov.uk

Working in partnership, Climate Ready had developed practical guidance and tools to help organisations identify and evaluate climate change adaptation strategies, including how to assess the costs and benefits of different options. www.environment-agency.gov.uk/climateready

GOV.UKAll government services and information will be transferred to a single website by March 2014. Search or navigate through topics, departments, policies, news and publications. Please note that this is a work in progress, and will change over time. www.gov.uk

Business in the Community (BitC)Business in the Community is a membership organisation that aims to mobilise business for good. www.bitc.org.uk/environment/issues.html

Confederation of British Industry (CBI)The CBI is the premier lobbying organisation for UK business on national and international issues. It works with the UK government, international legislators and policymakers to help UK businesses compete effectively. It has a programme of work on climate change led by its group of energy and climate change experts. www.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/energy-and-climate-change

Federation of Small Business (FSB)FSB is a campaigning pressure group promoting and protecting the interests of the self-employed and owners of small companies. In addition to its lobbying role, it offers a wide range of services to business. www.fsb.org.uk

The Climate Ready Support Service helps business and organisations to adapt to the changing climate.

http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/climateready

http://www.gov.uk/

http://www.bitc.org.uk/environment/issues.html

http://www.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/energy-and-climate-change/

http://www.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/energy-and-climate-change/

http://www.fsb.org.uk


Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Defra takes the lead on adaptation to climate change in the UK. Its website provides a useful overview of climate change adaptation and outlines the government’s approach for developing policy in this area. www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adapting. Content from Defra will be moving to GOV.UK in 2013, please see www.gov.uk/government/organisations /department-for-environment-food-rural-affairs

Adaptation is a devolved issue and the devolved administrations are developing their own programmes.

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/environmentcountryside /climatechange/?lang=en

www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment /climatechange

www.doeni.gov.uk/index/protect_the_environment /climate_change.htm

Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC)DECC was created in 2008 to bring together the government’s climate change and energy policy areas. It leads on work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and on international adaptation initiatives. www.decc.gov.uk and www.gov.uk/government/topics/climate-change

Climate change partnerships in the UKThe English regions and the devolved administrations all now have climate change impacts partnerships that bring together local stakeholders who share an interest in climate change issues. The partnerships share information and provide a focal point for action on climate change in their communities. Some focus only on climate change impacts and adaptation, while others also incorporate work on climate change mitigation. Links to these partnerships can be found on the Climate UK website. www.climateuk.net

Climate UK is the national network of climate change partnerships which seeks to maximise the benefit of the work of each partnership.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. www.ipcc.ch


http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adapting/

http://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-environment-food-rural-affairs

http://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-environment-food-rural-affairs

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/environmentcountryside/climatechange/?lang=en

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/environmentcountryside/climatechange/?lang=en

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange

http://www.doeni.gov.uk/index/protect_the_environment/climate_change.htm

http://www.doeni.gov.uk/index/protect_the_environment/climate_change.htm

http://www.decc.gov.uk

http://www.gov.uk/government/topics/climate-change

http://www.climateuk.net

http://www.ipcc.ch

Would you like to find out more about us,or about your environment?

Then call us on03708 506 506 (Mon-Fri 8-6)

[email protected]

or visit our websitewww.environment-agency.gov.uk

incident hotline 0800 80 70 60 (24 hrs)

floodline 0845 988 1188

Calls to 03 numbers cost the same as calls to standard geographic numbers(i.e. numbers beginning with 01 or 02).

LIT 7841

NA/BWA/pdf

Environment first: This publication is printed on recycled paper

BACLIAT - Business Adaptaiton

Documents

Transcript of BACLIAT - Business Adaptaiton