Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

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This is a spreadsheet to backtest portfolio returns from 1972-2011 [1985-20 sample portfolios like Coffeehouse and draws charts to compare the growth. The worksheet Returns_72_11 calculates portfolio returns (total/cagr/sharpe ratio/ The worksheet Returns_85_11 calculates portfolio returns (total/cagr/sharpe ratio/ The worksheet Data_72_11 includes the returns of various funds from 1972-2011 The worksheet Data_85_11 includes the returns of various funds from 1985-2011 (to The worksheet Compare_Portfolios allows you to compare upto 5 different portfolios The Spreadsheet also includes the total/cagr etc for a portfolio that's rebalanced charts reflect both the returns. It's now easier to compare different portfolios for the user defined time periods You can change the time period for comparing the lazy portfolios in cells E4 and E pale bl 1 - %allocation of funds in worksheet Portfolio 2 - You can change the Starting Year in Cell B57/K57 in worksheet Portfolio 3 - You can change the Ending Year in Cell B58/K58 in worksheet Portfolio 4 - Initial investment for your portfolio 5 - MAR (Minimum Acceptable Return) returns [Used in calculating Sortino Ratios] 6 - Expense ratio for the funds using Index Returns/Synthetic returns in Data_72_1 For example to calculate the returns from 1981-1990 change cell B57 (for Starting Year) to 1981 in worksheet Portfolio change cell B58 (for Ending Year) to 1990 in worksheet Portfolio The spreadsheet would return the porfolio return over the period 1981-1990. To calculate returns for a portfolio that includes sector funds (Health/P. Metals/ Change your allocation to include the sector funds change cell K57 to 1991 in worksheet Portfolio change cell K58 to 2000 in worksheet Portfolio The spreadsheet would return the porfolio return over the period 1991-2000. Adding returns for additional Funds Lets say you want to enter returns for a Fund in the worksheet Data_85_10 The worksheet Portfolio is a simple way to change the allocations of various funds The worksheet Data_Sources lists the sources of the various fund returns You can also change the percentage allocations of any fund. If the total doesn't The worksheet Lazy_Portfolios_85 compares 25 lazy portfolios and shows a chart wit Things you can change: (Cells that can be changed have 1. Enter Fund Name in cell AQ1 in Data_85_10 2. Enter Fund Symbol in cell AQ2 3. Enter ER (Expense Ratio) in cell AQ3 4. Enter starting year for the Fund in cell AQ4 5. Add the fund returns in cell cell AQ56 6. If you have returns for the Fund from inception then there is no ER deduction b deducted from the returns. If you want no ER to be deducted, then enter an ER of 0

Transcript of Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Page 1: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

This is a spreadsheet to backtest portfolio returns from 1972-2011 [1985-2011 if you want to include Sector/Tax-Exempt funds]

sample portfolios like Coffeehouse and draws charts to compare the growth.The worksheet Returns_72_11 calculates portfolio returns (total/cagr/sharpe ratio/correlation etc) for funds from 1972-2011The worksheet Returns_85_11 calculates portfolio returns (total/cagr/sharpe ratio/correlation etc) for funds[includes sector funds] from 1985-2011The worksheet Data_72_11 includes the returns of various funds from 1972-2011The worksheet Data_85_11 includes the returns of various funds from 1985-2011 (to include many of the funds that were started in 1984)

The worksheet Compare_Portfolios allows you to compare upto 5 different portfolios for 1972-2011 and 1985-2011 with the abilty to change the starting and ending yearsThe Spreadsheet also includes the total/cagr etc for a portfolio that's rebalanced annually (default) and one that is not rebalanced (un-rebalanced) and thecharts reflect both the returns.

It's now easier to compare different portfolios for the user defined time periods

You can change the time period for comparing the lazy portfolios in cells E4 and E5 in the Lazy_Portfolios_85 worksheet

pale blue1 - %allocation of funds in worksheet Portfolio2 - You can change the Starting Year in Cell B57/K57 in worksheet Portfolio3 - You can change the Ending Year in Cell B58/K58 in worksheet Portfolio4 - Initial investment for your portfolio5 - MAR (Minimum Acceptable Return) returns [Used in calculating Sortino Ratios]6 - Expense ratio for the funds using Index Returns/Synthetic returns in Data_72_11 and Data_85_11 worksheets

For example to calculate the returns from 1981-1990change cell B57 (for Starting Year) to 1981 in worksheet Portfoliochange cell B58 (for Ending Year) to 1990 in worksheet PortfolioThe spreadsheet would return the porfolio return over the period 1981-1990.

To calculate returns for a portfolio that includes sector funds (Health/P. Metals/Energy) or Windsor II funds from 1991-2000Change your allocation to include the sector fundschange cell K57 to 1991 in worksheet Portfoliochange cell K58 to 2000 in worksheet PortfolioThe spreadsheet would return the porfolio return over the period 1991-2000.

Adding returns for additional FundsLets say you want to enter returns for a Fund in the worksheet Data_85_10

The worksheet Portfolio is a simple way to change the allocations of various funds. It provides the CAGR/total/Sharpe Ratio etc. It also compares your portfolio to

The worksheet Data_Sources lists the sources of the various fund returns

You can also change the percentage allocations of any fund. If the total doesn't add up to 100% then you would see an

The worksheet Lazy_Portfolios_85 compares 25 lazy portfolios and shows a chart with the risk/return for all the 25 lazy portfolios.

Things you can change: (Cells that can be changed have

1. Enter Fund Name in cell AQ1 in Data_85_102. Enter Fund Symbol in cell AQ2 3. Enter ER (Expense Ratio) in cell AQ3 4. Enter starting year for the Fund in cell AQ4 5. Add the fund returns in cell cell AQ56 6. If you have returns for the Fund from inception then there is no ER deduction but if you are using synthetic returns then the ER is deducted from the returns. If you want no ER to be deducted, then enter an ER of 0 in cell AQ3

Page 2: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

DISCLAIMERPlease use this spreadsheet only for learning purposes and as a need for diversification. Don't change your Asset Allocation purely based on historical returns.Past returns are not indicative of future returns.

For comments/Feedback/updates visit

Regards,Simba

Revision History

Rev11a1. Added the returns for 20112. Fixed sharpe ratio in Data_72_11 and Data_85_113. Updated conditional formating for Portfolio returns4. Updated the formulas in Data_72_11 and Data_85_11 so it doesn't reflect 0.00 for the future years/undefined funds/columns5. Updated the conditioning formating for Max drawdown

Rev10c1. Corrected the symbol for VG International Small from VFWIX to VFSVX2. Corrected the returns for VUSXX (Admiral Treasury Money Market / Tbills)3. Corrected the chart data for Rolling Returns (Nominal and Real) for 1985-2010 charts.

Rev10b1. Added a Chart for 3, 5, 10 and 15 year Rolling Returns for both Nominal and Real Returns2. Rolling Returns Chart has the checkbox option to display either 3,5,10, 15 or all the Rolling Returns 3. Updated the portfolio composition for Fund Advice Ultimate Buy & Hold in Lazy_Portfolios_85 worksheet

Rev10a1. Added the returns for 20102. Replaced VINEX with VFWIX from 2010 onwards3. Fixed Correlations table in Data_72_10 and Data_85_104. Fixed Sharpe Ratio in Returns_85_10

Rev9b1. Fixed a typo and modified 2008 to 2010 in worksheet Lazy_Portfolios_852. Added the returns for PCRIX, PGLIX and BRSIX3. Corrected the 2009 returns for VBMFX4. Added returns for International Small5. Fixed the data point for Portfolio 2 in the CAGR vs Std Dev chart in Lazy_Portfolios_85 worksheet

Rev9a

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520

Visit the Bogleheads Forum - http://www.bogleheads.orgVersion # rev11a

Page 3: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1. Added the returns for 20102. Added Return vs. Risk charts at bottom of Portfolio worksheet (Thanks to Paul Douglas Boyer)3. Moved the data from SP_72_10 and SP_85_10 to the Returns_72_10 and Returns_85_10 worksheets. 4. Moved the Portfolio comparison section from Portfolio worksheet to Compare_Portfolios worksheet5. Updated the source/returns for Gold

Rev8i1. Corrected the returns for BRSIX,VMGIX for 20082. Corrected the formula to deduct the ER's. Earlier I was using (ActualReturns-Inflation). The new formula uses (ActualReturn-Inflation)/(1+Inflation%)3. Corrected the Std deviation for Unrebalanced_Returns in Returns_72_10 tab

Rev8h1. Corrected the Formula to calculate the total real value for rebalanced portfolio in the Compare Portfolio section2. Corrected the Formula to calculate the un-rebalanced returns in Returns_72_10 and Returns_85_10 for 2008 and higher years3. Fixed a typo for Down SD in the Compare Portfolio section for 1985-20084. Fixed the formula for Sortino Ratio in SP_72_10 and SP_85_10 worksheets

Rev8g1. Corrected the Sortino Formula in Returns_72_10 and Returns_85_10

Rev8f1. Fixed CAGR formula for Comparing 72-08 portfolios2. Updated the Compare Portfolio section to now have the ability to select different time periods instead of the fixed 1972-2008 or 1985-20083. Fixed Correlation for CHP and SBFS in SP_72_10 and SP_85_104. Charts in Excel spreadsheet now have dynamic titles that reflect the time period being tested5. The unrebalanced calculations now include the time period being tested instead of the entire 1972-2008 or 1985-2008 time periods6. User can now change the time period for comparing the Lazy Portfolios7. The correlations in the Lazy Portfolio are now time period dependent instead of being fixed for the entire period8. Updated the formula for Sortino Ratio9. Updated the formula for Sharpe Ratio to calculate Tbill average only for the time period being tested instead of the entire period

Rev8e1. Sharpe Ratio uses the average of Tbill for the selected Time period instead of using the average for the entire 1972-2008 or 1985-2008 periods.2. Fixed the formula used for 2008 and onwards returns in Returns_85_10 worksheet3. Fixed the formula used for 2010 and onwards returns in Returns_72_10 worksheet

Page 4: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

This is a spreadsheet to backtest portfolio returns from 1972-2011 [1985-2011 if you want to include Sector/Tax-Exempt funds]

sample portfolios like Coffeehouse and draws charts to compare the growth.The worksheet Returns_72_11 calculates portfolio returns (total/cagr/sharpe ratio/correlation etc) for funds from 1972-2011The worksheet Returns_85_11 calculates portfolio returns (total/cagr/sharpe ratio/correlation etc) for funds[includes sector funds] from 1985-2011The worksheet Data_72_11 includes the returns of various funds from 1972-2011The worksheet Data_85_11 includes the returns of various funds from 1985-2011 (to include many of the funds that were started in 1984)

The worksheet Compare_Portfolios allows you to compare upto 5 different portfolios for 1972-2011 and 1985-2011 with the abilty to change the starting and ending yearsThe Spreadsheet also includes the total/cagr etc for a portfolio that's rebalanced annually (default) and one that is not rebalanced (un-rebalanced) and the

It's now easier to compare different portfolios for the user defined time periods

You can change the time period for comparing the lazy portfolios in cells E4 and E5 in the Lazy_Portfolios_85 worksheet

background)1 - %allocation of funds in worksheet Portfolio2 - You can change the Starting Year in Cell B57/K57 in worksheet Portfolio3 - You can change the Ending Year in Cell B58/K58 in worksheet Portfolio4 - Initial investment for your portfolio5 - MAR (Minimum Acceptable Return) returns [Used in calculating Sortino Ratios]6 - Expense ratio for the funds using Index Returns/Synthetic returns in Data_72_11 and Data_85_11 worksheets

For example to calculate the returns from 1981-1990change cell B57 (for Starting Year) to 1981 in worksheet Portfoliochange cell B58 (for Ending Year) to 1990 in worksheet PortfolioThe spreadsheet would return the porfolio return over the period 1981-1990.

To calculate returns for a portfolio that includes sector funds (Health/P. Metals/Energy) or Windsor II funds from 1991-2000Change your allocation to include the sector fundschange cell K57 to 1991 in worksheet Portfoliochange cell K58 to 2000 in worksheet PortfolioThe spreadsheet would return the porfolio return over the period 1991-2000.

is a simple way to change the allocations of various funds. It provides the CAGR/total/Sharpe Ratio etc. It also compares your portfolio to

You can also change the percentage allocations of any fund. If the total doesn't add up to 100% then you would see an ERROR.

compares 25 lazy portfolios and shows a chart with the risk/return for all the 25 lazy portfolios.

6. If you have returns for the Fund from inception then there is no ER deduction but if you are using synthetic returns then the ER is deducted from the returns. If you

Page 5: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Please use this spreadsheet only for learning purposes and as a need for diversification. Don't change your Asset Allocation purely based on historical returns.Past returns are not indicative of future returns.

Regards,

Revision History

Rev11a1. Added the returns for 20112. Fixed sharpe ratio in Data_72_11 and Data_85_113. Updated conditional formating for Portfolio returns4. Updated the formulas in Data_72_11 and Data_85_11 so it doesn't reflect 0.00 for the future years/undefined funds/columns5. Updated the conditioning formating for Max drawdown

Rev10c1. Corrected the symbol for VG International Small from VFWIX to VFSVX2. Corrected the returns for VUSXX (Admiral Treasury Money Market / Tbills)3. Corrected the chart data for Rolling Returns (Nominal and Real) for 1985-2010 charts.

Rev10b1. Added a Chart for 3, 5, 10 and 15 year Rolling Returns for both Nominal and Real Returns2. Rolling Returns Chart has the checkbox option to display either 3,5,10, 15 or all the Rolling Returns 3. Updated the portfolio composition for Fund Advice Ultimate Buy & Hold in Lazy_Portfolios_85 worksheet

Rev10a1. Added the returns for 20102. Replaced VINEX with VFWIX from 2010 onwards3. Fixed Correlations table in Data_72_10 and Data_85_104. Fixed Sharpe Ratio in Returns_85_10

Rev9b1. Fixed a typo and modified 2008 to 2010 in worksheet Lazy_Portfolios_852. Added the returns for PCRIX, PGLIX and BRSIX3. Corrected the 2009 returns for VBMFX4. Added returns for International Small5. Fixed the data point for Portfolio 2 in the CAGR vs Std Dev chart in Lazy_Portfolios_85 worksheet

Rev9a

Page 6: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1. Added the returns for 20102. Added Return vs. Risk charts at bottom of Portfolio worksheet (Thanks to Paul Douglas Boyer)3. Moved the data from SP_72_10 and SP_85_10 to the Returns_72_10 and Returns_85_10 worksheets. 4. Moved the Portfolio comparison section from Portfolio worksheet to Compare_Portfolios worksheet5. Updated the source/returns for Gold

Rev8i1. Corrected the returns for BRSIX,VMGIX for 20082. Corrected the formula to deduct the ER's. Earlier I was using (ActualReturns-Inflation). The new formula uses (ActualReturn-Inflation)/(1+Inflation%)3. Corrected the Std deviation for Unrebalanced_Returns in Returns_72_10 tab

Rev8h1. Corrected the Formula to calculate the total real value for rebalanced portfolio in the Compare Portfolio section2. Corrected the Formula to calculate the un-rebalanced returns in Returns_72_10 and Returns_85_10 for 2008 and higher years3. Fixed a typo for Down SD in the Compare Portfolio section for 1985-20084. Fixed the formula for Sortino Ratio in SP_72_10 and SP_85_10 worksheets

Rev8g1. Corrected the Sortino Formula in Returns_72_10 and Returns_85_10

Rev8f1. Fixed CAGR formula for Comparing 72-08 portfolios2. Updated the Compare Portfolio section to now have the ability to select different time periods instead of the fixed 1972-2008 or 1985-20083. Fixed Correlation for CHP and SBFS in SP_72_10 and SP_85_104. Charts in Excel spreadsheet now have dynamic titles that reflect the time period being tested5. The unrebalanced calculations now include the time period being tested instead of the entire 1972-2008 or 1985-2008 time periods6. User can now change the time period for comparing the Lazy Portfolios7. The correlations in the Lazy Portfolio are now time period dependent instead of being fixed for the entire period8. Updated the formula for Sortino Ratio9. Updated the formula for Sharpe Ratio to calculate Tbill average only for the time period being tested instead of the entire period

Rev8e1. Sharpe Ratio uses the average of Tbill for the selected Time period instead of using the average for the entire 1972-2008 or 1985-2008 periods.2. Fixed the formula used for 2008 and onwards returns in Returns_85_10 worksheet3. Fixed the formula used for 2010 and onwards returns in Returns_72_10 worksheet

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To calculate portfolio returns from 1972-2011, Enter fund allocations here

Starting Allocation

Total US Market - TSM VTSMX 66.00% 45.31%Large Cap Value - LCV VIVAXLarge Cap Blend - LCB VFINXLarge Cap Growth - LCG VIGRXMid-Cap Blend - MCB VIMSXSmall Cap Value - SCV VISVXSmall Cap Blend - SCB NAESXSmall Cap Growth - SCG VISGXMicro Cap BRSIXREIT VGSIXIntl Developed - EAFE VDMIXEmerging Mkt - EM VEIEXTotal_Intl - EAFE85/EM15 VGTSXIntl Pacific VPACXIntl Europe VEURXIntl.Value VTRIXCommodities PCRIXLong Term Govt Bond - LTGB VUSTX 66.00% 23.32%5 Yr T-Bills VFITXTotal Bond VBMFXTbills/Treasury Money Mkt VUSXXSynthetic TIPS VIPSXWellington - Balanced VWELXWellesley - Balanced VWINXWindsor VWNDX2 Year ST Treasury VFISXGOLD GLD 66.00% 31.37%VG Intl Small VFSVX

198% ERROR 100%

Ending Allocation if not rebalanced

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# of Years for backtest 40Starting Year for backtest 1972Ending Year for backtest 2011Initial Investment 4000MAR Nominal 5% Avg TBill Return (Nominal) = 5.41%MAR Real 2% Avg TBill Return (Real) = 0.97%

Total CAGR Std.Dev C-US

Portfolio Growth - Nominal ERROR #VALUE! 20.58 0.78 3.00 0.40Portfolio Growth - Real $1,028,971 14.88 18.65 0.82 2.45 0.44Coffee House - Nominal $529,519 10.43 11.27 0.50 1.03 0.91Coffee House - Real $38,575 5.83 11.32 0.48 0.68 0.89

ERROR #VALUE! 17.66 0.28 0.66 0.25

ERROR #VALUE! 15.34 0.30 0.43 0.30

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

Portfolio Growth without Rebalancing (Nominal)

Portfolio Growth without Rebalancing (Real)

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Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

Portfolio Rebalanced CHP Portfolio UnBalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = ERROR

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 529519.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = ERROR

B59
Minimum Acceptable Return (Nominal) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
B60
Minimum Acceptable Return (Real) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
G62
Correlation to US Market
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$0

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Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

Portfolio Rebalanced CHP Portfolio UnBalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = ERROR

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 529519.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = ERROR

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Avg. Drawdown Rebalanced = 1.0% Avg. Drawdown Unbalanced = 4.6%

Max. Drawdown Rebalanced = 23.2%

Max. Drawdown Unbalanced = 27.8%

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Portfolio Growth (Real) 1972 - 2011Portfolio Rebalanced CHP Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 1028971.45

CHP Real (Rebalanced) = 38574.76

Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = ERROR

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3-Year Rolling Returns 5-Year Rolling Returns

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Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Real) 1972 - 2011

3-Year Rolling Returns 5-Year Rolling Returns 10-Year Rolling Returns 15-Year Rolling Returns

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0.00%

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5-Year Rolling Returns[Real]

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Rolling Returns (Real) 1972 - 2011

3-Year Rolling Returns 5-Year Rolling Returns 10-Year Rolling Returns 15-Year Rolling Returns

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To calculate portfolio returns from 1985-2011, Enter the fund allocations here

Total US Market - TSM VTSMX 50.00% 52.16%Large Cap Value - LCV VIVAXLarge Cap Blend - LCB VFINXLarge Cap Growth - LCG VIGRXMid-Cap Blend - MCB VIMSXSmall Cap Value - SCV VISVXSmall Cap Blend - SCB NAESXSmall Cap Growth - SCG VISGXMicro Cap BRSIXREIT VGSIXIntl Developed - EAFE VDMIXEmerging Mkt - EM VEIEXTotal_Intl - EAFE85/EM15 VGTSX 30.00% 36.71%Intl Pacific VPACXIntl Europe VEURXIntl.Value VTRIXCommodities PCRIXLong Term Govt Bond - LTGB VUSTX5 Yr T-Bills VFITX 20.00% 11.14%Total Bond VBMFXTbills/Treasury Money Mkt VUSXXSynthetic TIPS VIPSXWellington - Balanced VWELXWellesley - Balanced VWINXEnergy Fund VGENXHealth Care Fund VGHCXPrecious Metals Fund VGPMXWindsor VWNDXWindsor II VWNFXShort term Tax Exempt VWSTXInter Tem Tax Exempt VWITXLong Term Tax Exempt VWLTXHigh Yield Corp VWEHX2 Year ST Treasury VFISXMid-Cap Growth Index VMGIXMid-Cap Value Index VMVIXVG Extended Market VEXMXGlobal Bond Fund PIGLXST Investment Grade VFSTXGOLD GLDVG Intl Small VFSVX

Starting Allocation

Ending Allocation if not rebalanced

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100% 100%

# of Years for backtest 27Starting Year for backtest 1985Ending Year for backtest 2011Initial Investment 10000MAR Nominal 5% Avg TBill Return (Nominal) = MAR Real 2% Avg TBill Return (Real) =

C-Intl Total CAGR Std. Dev Sharpe Ratio

0.32 Portfolio Growth - Nominal $141,056 10.30 15.30 0.47 0.730.36 Portfolio Growth - Real $65,817 7.23 14.88 0.47 0.760.68 Coffee House - Nominal $49,247 9.74 10.97 0.56 0.910.67 Coffee House - Real $57,447 10.37 10.70 0.56 0.94

0.18 $123,712 9.76 17.08 0.41 0.59

0.23 $57,724 6.71 16.62 0.41 0.60

Sortino Ratio

Portfolio Growth without Rebalancing (Nominal)

Portfolio Growth without Rebalancing (Real)

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Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

Portfolio Rebalanced CHP Portfolio UnBalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = ERROR

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 529519.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = ERROR

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Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

CHP Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = 141055.71

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 49247.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = 123711.93

K59
Minimum Acceptable Return (Nominal) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
K60
Minimum Acceptable Return (Real) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
H62
Correlation to International Market
M72
Starting Year for backtesting (1985-2008)
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Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

Portfolio Rebalanced CHP Portfolio UnBalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = ERROR

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 529519.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = ERROR

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Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

CHP Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = 141055.71

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 49247.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = 123711.93

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Avg. Drawdown Rebalanced = 1.0% Avg. Drawdown Unbalanced = 4.6%

Max. Drawdown Rebalanced = 23.2%

Max. Drawdown Unbalanced = 27.8%

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Avg. Drawdown Rebalanced = 4.0%

Avg. Drawdown Unbalanced = 5.9%

Max. Drawdown Rebalanced = 29.1%

Max. Drawdown Unbalanced = 35.5%

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Portfolio Growth (Real) 1972 - 2011Portfolio Rebalanced CHP Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 1028971.45

CHP Real (Rebalanced) = 38574.76

Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = ERROR

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$12Portfolio Growth (Real) 1985 - 2011

CHP Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 65817.12

CHP Real (Rebalanced) = 57447.12

Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = 57724.45

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Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1972 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Real) 1985 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Real) 1972 - 2011

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Rolling Returns (Real) 1985 - 2011

15-Year Rolling Returns 3-Year Rolling Returns 5-Year Rolling Returns 10-Year Rolling Returns 15-Year Rolling Returns

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4.16%1.25%

C-US C-Intl

0.93 0.900.93 0.890.90 0.740.89 0.73

0.91 0.92

0.91 0.92

Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1972 - 2011 Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1985 - 2011Portfolio Growth (Real) 1972 - 2011 Portfolio Growth (Real) 1985 - 2011

$0

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$12

Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

CHP Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = 141055.71

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 49247.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = 123711.93

P62
Correlation to US Market
Q62
Correlation to International Market
Page 18: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1972 - 2011 Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

CHP Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = 141055.71

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 49247.03

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = 123711.93

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Avg. Drawdown Rebalanced = 4.0%

Avg. Drawdown Unbalanced = 5.9%

Max. Drawdown Rebalanced = 29.1%

Max. Drawdown Unbalanced = 35.5%

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12Portfolio Growth (Real) 1985 - 2011

CHP Portfolio Rebalanced Portfolio Unbalanced

Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 65817.12

CHP Real (Rebalanced) = 57447.12

Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = 57724.45

0.00%

200.00%

400.00%

600.00%

800.00%

1000.00%

1200.00%

3-Year Rolling Returns 5-Year Rolling Returns

10-Year Rolling Returns 15-Year Rolling Returns

Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

Page 19: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Rolling Returns (Real) 1972 - 2011 Rolling Returns (Real) 1985 - 2011

0.00%

200.00%

400.00%

600.00%

800.00%

1000.00%

1200.00%

3-Year Rolling Returns 5-Year Rolling Returns

10-Year Rolling Returns 15-Year Rolling Returns

Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

0.00%

200.00%

400.00%

600.00%

800.00%

1000.00%

1200.00%3-Year Rolling Returns [Real]

5-Year Rolling Returns[Real]

10-Year Rolling Returns [Real]

15-Year Rolling Returns [Real]

Rolling Returns (Real) 1985 - 2011

15-Year Rolling Returns

Page 20: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.00%

200.00%

400.00%

600.00%

800.00%

1000.00%

1200.00%3-Year Rolling Returns [Real]

5-Year Rolling Returns[Real]

10-Year Rolling Returns [Real]

15-Year Rolling Returns [Real]

Rolling Returns (Real) 1985 - 2011

15-Year Rolling Returns

Page 21: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Portfolio Growth (Nominal) 1985 - 2011Portfolio Growth (Real) 1985 - 2011

Page 22: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Rolling Returns (Nominal) 1985 - 2011

Page 23: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Rolling Returns (Real) 1985 - 2011

Page 24: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

To compare portfolios from 1972-2011, Enter fund allocations here

Compare 5 portfoliosP1 P2 P3 P4 P5

Total US Market - TSM VTSMXLarge Cap Value - LCV VIVAXLarge Cap Blend - LCB VFINXLarge Cap Growth - LCG VIGRXMid-Cap Blend - MCB VIMSXSmall Cap Value - SCV VISVX 65.00% 25.00% 50.00% 80.00% 100.00%Small Cap Blend - SCB NAESXSmall Cap Growth - SCG VISGXMicro Cap BRSIXREIT VGSIXIntl Developed - EAFE VDMIXEmerging Mkt - EM VEIEXTotal_Intl - EAFE85/EM15 VGTSXIntl Pacific VPACXIntl Europe VEURXIntl.Value VTRIXCommodities PCRIXLong Term Govt Bond - LTGB VUSTX 65.00% 25.00% 50.00% 20.00%5 Yr T-Bills VFITXTotal Bond VBMFXTbills/Treasury Money Mkt VMPXXSynthetic TIPS VIPSXWellington - Balanced VWELXWellesley - Balanced VWINXWindsor VWNDX2 Year ST Treasury VFISX 25.00%GOLD GLD 65.00% 25.00%VG Intl Small VFSVX

195% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Page 25: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Compare 5 Portfolios

Initial Investment for comparing portfolios 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000Starting Year for backtest 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972Ending Year for backtest 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011# of Years backtesting 40 40 40 40 40Offset 0 0 0 0 0MAR Nominal 5% Avg TBill Return (Nominal) = 5.41%MAR Real 2% Avg TBill Return (Real) = 0.97%

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5Average 23.42% 10.81% 11.97% 13.66% 14.79%

Std. Dev. 20.61% 8.16% 12.17% 16.94% 20.86%

Down SD 4.63% 2.25% 5.13% 8.23% 10.68%

Up SD 17.31% 6.90% 8.55% 10.06% 12.11%

CAGR 21.85% 10.53% 11.32% 12.36% 12.79%

Sharpe 0.87 0.66 0.54 0.49 0.45

Sortino 3.97 2.59 1.36 1.05 0.92

US Mkt. Corr. 0.31 0.32 0.68 0.75 0.76

Intl. Corr. 0.24 0.22 0.35 0.45 0.47

Total - Rebalanced (N) 27140422 548452 728080 1059162 1231297

Total-Unbalanced (N) 1170070 489028 748530 1038190 1231297

Total - Rebalanced (Real) 4942859 99885 132599 192896 224246

6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00%

0.00%

1.20%

2.40%

3.60%

4.80%

6.00%

7.20%

8.40%

9.60%

10.80%

12.00%

13.20%

14.40%

15.60%

16.80%

18.00%

19.20%

20.40%

21.60%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

ali

ze

d R

etu

rn

B63
Minimum Acceptable Return (Nominal) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
B64
Minimum Acceptable Return (Real) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
Page 26: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1972 39.55% 16.12% 6.09% 6.49% 6.75%

1973 28.41% 12.38% -13.76% -21.21% -26.17%

1974 37.54% 16.64% -7.13% -13.88% -18.39%

1975 23.04% 10.77% 31.53% 45.10% 54.15%

1976 42.42% 18.47% 34.87% 45.90% 53.25%

1977 27.76% 11.54% 10.28% 17.02% 21.52%

1978 36.74% 15.44% 10.03% 16.93% 21.52%

1979 103.53% 42.35% 16.82% 27.78% 35.09%

1980 23.13% 12.35% 10.43% 19.24% 25.11%

1981 -10.79% 0.50% 8.14% 12.04% 14.64%

1982 53.77% 25.48% 34.12% 30.57% 28.21%

1983 14.35% 7.60% 19.36% 30.71% 38.28%

1984 -1.46% 2.56% 8.63% 4.69% 2.07%

1985 43.30% 19.88% 30.68% 30.69% 30.70%

1986 33.90% 15.94% 15.67% 10.56% 7.15%

1987 7.30% 4.24% -5.25% -6.49% -7.31%

1988 14.79% 7.10% 19.18% 25.19% 29.20%

1989 17.45% 8.82% 15.04% 13.30% 12.14%

1990 -11.74% -2.36% -8.10% -16.43% -21.98%

1991 31.44% 14.70% 29.40% 36.59% 41.37%

1992 19.55% 9.14% 18.10% 24.52% 28.80%

1993 37.38% 15.98% 20.15% 22.17% 23.52%

1994 -7.36% -2.97% -4.38% -2.79% -1.73%

1995 36.53% 17.08% 27.81% 26.43% 25.51%

1996 9.69% 4.82% 9.94% 16.65% 21.12%

1997 15.39% 7.52% 22.70% 27.98% 31.50%

1998 3.32% 3.12% 3.17% -2.76% -6.71%

1999 -3.31% -0.81% -2.77% 0.76% 3.11%

2000 23.26% 11.15% 20.80% 21.45% 21.88%

2001 11.99% 6.56% 9.00% 11.82% 13.70%

2002 17.83% 8.86% 1.24% -8.03% -14.20%

2003 38.35% 15.34% 19.94% 30.29% 37.19%

2004 22.85% 9.05% 15.34% 20.26% 23.55%

2005 19.79% 8.05% 6.34% 6.18% 6.07%

2006 27.90% 11.67% 10.49% 15.74% 19.24%

2007 21.28% 10.16% 1.09% -3.81% -7.07%

2008 -2.97% 0.53% -4.76% -21.14% -32.05%

2009 27.48% 10.93% 9.15% 21.86% 30.34%

2010 40.96% 16.42% 16.88% 21.64% 24.82%

2011 22.55% 9.24% 12.56% 2.53% -4.16%

2012201320142015

6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00%

0.00%

1.20%

2.40%

3.60%

4.80%

6.00%

7.20%

8.40%

9.60%

10.80%

12.00%

13.20%

14.40%

15.60%

16.80%

18.00%

19.20%

20.40%

21.60%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard DeviationA

nn

ua

liz

ed

Re

turn

Page 27: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

To compare portfolios from 1985-2011, Enter fund allocations here

Compare 5 portfoliosP1 P2 P3 P4

Total US Market - TSM VTSMX 25.00% 15.00% 7.50%Large Cap Value - LCV VIVAX 15.00% 7.50%Large Cap Blend - LCB VFINXLarge Cap Growth - LCG VIGRXMid-Cap Blend - MCB VIMSX 5.00%Small Cap Value - SCV VISVX 66.00% 5.00% 5.00%Small Cap Blend - SCB NAESX 5.00% 5.00%Small Cap Growth - SCG VISGXMicro Cap BRSIX 5.00%REIT VGSIX 25.00% 10.00% 5.00%Intl Developed - EAFE VDMIXEmerging Mkt - EM VEIEX 7.50% 7.50%Total_Intl - EAFE85/EM15 VGTSX 25.00%Intl Pacific VPACX 7.50% 7.50%Intl Europe VEURX 7.50% 7.50%Intl.Value VTRIX 7.50% 7.50%Commodities PCRIXLong Term Govt Bond - LTGB VUSTX 66.00%5 Yr T-Bills VFITXTotal Bond VBMFX 20.00% 15.00%Tbills/Treasury Money Mkt VMPXXSynthetic TIPS VIPSX 25.00% 15.00%Wellington - Balanced VWELXWellesley - Balanced VWINXEnergy Fund VGENXHealth Care Fund VGHCXPrecious Metals Fund VGPMXWindsor VWNDXWindsor II VWNFXShort term Tax Exempt VWSTXInter Tem Tax Exempt VWITXLong Term Tax Exempt VWLTXHigh Yield Corp VWEHX2 Year ST Treasury VFISXMid-Cap Growth Index VMGIXMid-Cap Value Index VMVIXVG Extended Market VEXMXGlobal Bond Fund PIGLXST Investment Grade VFSTX

GOLD GLD 66.00%VG Intl Small VFSVX

Page 28: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

198% 100% 100% 100%

ERROR

Initial Investment for comparing portfolios 10000 10000 10000 10000Starting Year for backtest 1985 1985 1985 1985Ending Year for backtest 2011 2011 2011 2011# of Years backtesting 27 27 27 27Offset 0 0 0 0MAR Nominal 5% Avg TBill Return (Nominal) = MAR Real 2% Avg TBill Return (Real) =

P1 P2 P3 P4Average 19.51% 11.28% 11.89% 11.70%

Std. Dev. 15.22% 13.62% 14.89% 13.87%

Down SD 4.63% 7.74% 8.24% 7.41%

Up SD 10.61% 7.78% 8.64% 8.47%

CAGR 18.54% 10.39% 10.84% 10.80%

Sharpe 1.01 0.52 0.52 0.54

Sortino 3.14 0.81 0.84 0.90

US Mkt. Corr. 0.48 0.85 0.89 0.86

Intl. Corr. 0.53 0.89 0.90 0.91

Total - Rebalanced 986906 144255 160910 159378

Total - Unbalanced 217166 124637 160529 158913

Total - Rebalanced (Real) 460494 67310 75081 74366

6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00%

0.00%

1.20%

2.40%

3.60%

4.80%

6.00%

7.20%

8.40%

9.60%

10.80%

12.00%

13.20%

14.40%

15.60%

16.80%

18.00%

19.20%

20.40%

21.60%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

ali

ze

d R

etu

rn

4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

aliz

ed r

etu

rn

K63
Minimum Acceptable Return (Nominal) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
K64
Minimum Acceptable Return (Real) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
Page 29: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1985 43.97% 29.09% 35.46% 33.02%

1986 34.42% 31.28% 30.25% 30.16%

1987 7.41% 8.08% 7.87% 8.33%

1988 15.02% 19.92% 21.25% 21.94%

1989 17.72% 15.42% 21.51% 18.80%

1990 -11.92% -9.33% -9.41% -9.26%

1991 31.93% 26.20% 26.66% 26.50%

1992 19.85% 5.66% 7.07% 7.80%

1993 37.96% 21.03% 23.70% 24.35%

1994 -7.47% 2.82% 0.92% 1.12%

1995 37.09% 15.27% 21.53% 17.67%

1996 9.84% 16.84% 15.49% 12.67%

1997 15.63% 14.06% 13.95% 11.63%

1998 3.37% 6.28% 7.75% 6.05%

1999 -3.36% 14.34% 17.99% 18.94%

2000 23.61% 1.19% 0.03% 0.10%

2001 12.17% -2.84% -4.43% -1.47%

2002 18.10% -3.92% -9.57% -5.02%

2003 38.94% 28.84% 31.29% 31.42%

2004 23.20% 18.10% 16.69% 16.11%

2005 20.09% 9.01% 10.44% 10.03%

2006 28.33% 19.41% 19.42% 15.94%

2007 21.60% 4.04% 5.54% 7.37%

2008 -3.02% -30.26% -30.08% -27.49%

2009 27.90% 26.45% 26.92% 26.45%

2010 41.59% 15.67% 14.96% 14.31%

2011 22.90% 2.03% -2.15% -1.61%

2012201320142015

6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00%

0.00%

1.20%

2.40%

3.60%

4.80%

6.00%

7.20%

8.40%

9.60%

10.80%

12.00%

13.20%

14.40%

15.60%

16.80%

18.00%

19.20%

20.40%

21.60%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

ali

ze

d R

etu

rn

4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

aliz

ed r

etu

rn

Page 30: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

P520.00%

5.00%

25.00%

12.50%

12.50%

25.00%

Page 31: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

100%

1000019852011

270

4.16%1.25%

P58.55%

6.18%

2.36%

4.64%

8.38%

0.71

1.51

0.63

0.75

87914

86600

41021

4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

aliz

ed r

etu

rn

Page 32: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

20.75%

20.04%

7.74%

5.04%

12.50%

0.74%

11.62%

3.06%

13.68%

-1.75%

17.51%

4.20%

5.63%

9.93%

5.01%

2.41%

-0.54%

6.65%

14.14%

6.70%

8.63%

11.40%

13.39%

-1.66%

10.81%

13.86%

9.46%

4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5

Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

aliz

ed r

etu

rn

Page 33: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

To compare the Lazy Portfolios for different time periods (between 1985-2010), Change the starting and ending year in cells E4 and E5

Initial Investment 10000

Starting Year (>=1985) 1985

Ending Year (<= 2010) 2011

MAR Nominal 5%

Offset 0

# of Years of Backtesting 27

Average Std. Dev. Down SD Up SD CAGR

Wellington P1 11.47% 11.85% 6.05% 7.27% 10.55%

Wellesley P2 10.44% 9.56% 4.06% 6.63% 10.02%

P3 P3 19.09% 15.27% 4.59% 10.45% 18.27%

Taylor Larimore 3 Fund P4 11.82% 15.66% 9.09% 7.90% 10.13%

Taylor Larimore 4 Fund P5 11.86% 15.72% 9.18% 7.78% 10.18%

Rick Ferri Core Four P6 11.72% 14.86% 8.57% 8.04% 10.21%

Bill Berstein No Brainer Cowards P7 10.72% 11.79% 6.67% 6.19% 9.62%

Bill Berstein No Brainer P8 11.34% 14.34% 8.05% 8.04% 9.86%

Bill Bernstein Smart Money P9 10.72% 11.79% 6.67% 6.19% 9.62%

Dilbert's Portfolio P10 10.77% 13.40% 7.31% 7.36% 9.67%

Ted Aronson Family Taxable P11 12.26% 14.90% 7.82% 9.02% 10.81%

Bill Schultheis Coffee House P12 10.62% 11.06% 5.85% 6.28% 9.74%

P13 12.01% 12.09% 6.02% 7.89% 10.82%

David Swenson Lazy Portfolio P14 11.29% 12.61% 7.04% 6.88% 10.18%

David Swenson Yale Endowment P15 11.83% 12.66% 6.58% 7.89% 10.87%

2nd Grader P16 12.32% 17.29% 10.34% 8.22% 10.32%

Frank Armstrong Ideal Idx P17 10.99% 13.03% 7.40% 7.82% 9.66%

Scott Burns Couch Portfolio P18 10.05% 10.06% 5.52% 5.16% 9.48%

Scott Burns Margaritaville P19 11.41% 14.24% 8.01% 7.67% 10.04%

Scott Burns Four Square P20 10.30% 11.25% 6.19% 5.82% 9.41%

Scott Burns Five Fold P21 10.70% 11.50% 6.35% 7.04% 9.82%

P22 11.59% 11.93% 6.83% 6.37% 10.57%

Harry Browne Permanent P23 8.19% 5.82% 2.30% 4.06% 8.11%

Larry Swedroe Simple Portfolio P24 11.39% 11.94% 6.35% 7.00% 10.37%

P25 10.48% 8.44% 3.66% 6.09% 9.84%

FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio

Scott Burns Six Ways from Sunday

Larry Swedroe Minimize FatTails Portfolio

E6
Minimum Acceptable Return (Nominal) Used in calculating Sortino Ratios
Page 34: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5

Wellington Wellesley P3

Total US Market - TSM VTSMX 50.0% 50.0%

Large Cap Value - LCV VIVAX

Large Cap Blend - LCB VFINX

Large Cap Growth - LCG VIGRX

Mid-Cap Blend - MCB VIMSX

Small Cap Value - SCV VISVX 65.0%

Small Cap Blend - SCB NAESX

Small Cap Growth - SCG VISGX

Micro Cap BRSIX

REIT VGSIX

Intl Developed - EAFE VDMIX

Emerging Mkt - EM VEIEX

Total_Intl - EAFE85/EM15 VGTSX 30.0% 30.0%

Intl Pacific VPACX

Intl Europe VEURX

Intl.Value VTRIX

Commodities PCRIX

Long Term Govt Bond - LTGB VUSTX 65.0%

5 Yr T-Bills VFITX

Total Bond VBMFX 20.0% 10.0%

Tbills/Treasury Money Mkt VMPXX

Synthetic TIPS VIPSX 10.0%

Wellington - Balanced VWELX 100.0%

Wellesley - Balanced VWINX 100.0%

Energy Fund VGENX

Health Care Fund VGHCX

Precious Metals Fund VGPMX

Windsor VWNDX

Windsor II VWNFX

Short term Tax Exempt VWSTX

Inter Tem Tax Exempt VWITX

Long Term Tax Exempt VWLTX

High Yield Corp VWEHX

2 Year ST Treasury VFISX

Mid-Cap Growth Index VMGIX

Mid-Cap Value Index VMVIX

VG Extended Market VEXMX

Global Bond Fund PIGLX

ST Investment Grade VFSTX

GOLD GOLD 65.0%

VG Intl Small VFSVX

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

TaylorLarimore3 Fund

TaylorLarimore4 Fund

Page 35: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0 0

0 0

0 0

100.0% 100.0% 195.0% 100.0% 100.0%

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5

Wellington Wellesley P3Average 11.47% 10.44% 19.09% 11.82% 11.86%

Std. Dev. 11.85% 9.56% 15.27% 15.66% 15.72%

Down SD 6.05% 4.06% 4.59% 9.09% 9.18%

Up SD 7.27% 6.63% 10.45% 7.90% 7.78%

CAGR 10.55% 10.02% 18.27% 10.13% 10.18%

Sharpe 0.62 0.66 0.98 0.49 0.49

Sortino 1.07 1.34 3.07 0.75 0.75

US Mkt. Corr. 0.91 0.68 0.48 0.94 0.93

Intl. Corr. 0.65 0.42 0.53 0.90 0.91

Total - Rebalanced (N) 150020 131786 928407 135453 136998

Total - Unbalanced (N) 150020 131786 213875 121942 122961

Total - Rebalanced (Real) 70000 61492 433198 63203 63924

$1 Portfolio = 15.00 13.18 92.84 13.55 13.70

1985 28.53% 27.41% 43.30% 36.59% 35.68%

1986 18.40% 18.34% 33.90% 31.01% 31.92%

1987 2.28% -1.92% 7.30% 8.88% 9.60%

1988 16.11% 13.61% 14.79% 19.36% 20.49%

1989 21.60% 20.93% 17.45% 22.63% 21.86%

1990 -2.81% 3.76% -11.74% -7.82% -8.09%

1991 23.65% 21.57% 31.44% 26.05% 26.09%

1992 7.93% 8.67% 19.55% 3.65% 3.66%

1993 13.52% 14.65% 37.38% 18.77% 19.35%

1994 -0.49% -4.44% -7.36% 1.03% 1.59%

1995 32.92% 28.91% 36.53% 24.42% 22.66%

1996 16.19% 9.42% 9.69% 13.45% 13.48%

1997 23.23% 20.19% 15.39% 17.07% 16.90%

1998 12.06% 11.84% 3.32% 18.03% 17.43%

1999 4.41% -4.14% -3.31% 20.73% 21.57%

2000 10.40% 16.17% 23.26% -7.69% -8.37%

2001 4.19% 7.39% 11.99% -9.84% -9.95%

2002 -6.90% 4.64% 17.83% -13.35% -12.52%

2003 20.75% 9.66% 38.35% 28.57% 28.97%

2004 11.17% 7.57% 22.85% 13.36% 13.76%

2005 6.82% 3.48% 19.79% 8.14% 8.16%

2006 14.97% 11.28% 27.90% 16.60% 16.22%

2007 8.34% 5.61% 21.27% 8.79% 9.25%

2008 -22.30% -9.84% -2.97% -30.74% -31.53%

TaylorLarimore3 Fund

TaylorLarimore4 Fund

Page 36: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

2009 22.20% 16.02% 27.48% 26.56% 27.04%

2010 10.94% 10.65% 40.96% 13.17% 13.14%

2011 3.85% 9.63% 22.55% -2.38% -1.81%

2012201320142015

Page 37: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

To compare the Lazy Portfolios for different time periods (between 1985-2010), Change the starting and ending year in cells E4 and E5

Intl. Corr. 1$ Portfolio

0.62 1.07 0.91 0.65 150019.50 150019.50 69999.66 15.00

0.66 1.34 0.68 0.42 131786.15 131786.15 61491.91 13.18

0.98 3.07 0.48 0.53 928406.88 213875.16 433198.13 92.84

0.49 0.75 0.94 0.90 135453.44 121941.94 63203.08 13.55

0.49 0.75 0.93 0.91 136997.89 122960.95 63923.73 13.70

0.51 0.78 0.95 0.87 137936.24 123083.18 64361.57 13.79

0.56 0.86 0.92 0.82 119290.44 128354.69 55661.37 11.93

0.50 0.79 0.96 0.80 126762.92 121323.07 59148.05 12.68

0.56 0.86 0.92 0.82 119290.44 128354.69 55661.37 11.93

0.49 0.79 0.99 0.67 120810.57 115678.82 56370.66 12.08

0.54 0.93 0.86 0.93 159852.43 163400.40 74587.74 15.99

0.58 0.96 0.90 0.74 123117.57 111821.44 57447.12 12.31

0.65 1.16 0.82 0.93 160132.80 153371.35 74718.57 16.01

0.57 0.89 0.89 0.87 137129.77 136505.55 63985.26 13.71

0.61 1.04 0.89 0.86 162313.33 148495.67 75736.01 16.23

0.47 0.71 0.94 0.89 141922.05 129523.57 66221.36 14.19

0.52 0.81 0.86 0.92 120498.30 109841.72 56224.96 12.05

0.59 0.92 0.96 0.76 115421.18 107648.64 53855.96 11.54

0.51 0.80 0.86 0.95 132520.83 116743.32 61834.72 13.25

0.55 0.86 0.86 0.92 113511.27 102183.27 52964.78 11.35

0.57 0.90 0.86 0.87 125505.84 111523.30 58561.50 12.55

0.62 0.96 0.83 0.83 150769.93 141314.42 70349.81 15.08

0.69 1.39 0.69 0.70 82105.54 84427.64 38310.75 8.21

0.61 1.01 0.84 0.85 143644.85 138763.30 67025.23 14.36

0.75 1.50 0.67 0.81 126092.32 165106.74 58835.15 12.61

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

Mkt. Corr.

Total - Rebalanced

(Nominal)

Total - Unbalanced

(Nominal)

Total - Rebalanced

(Real)

Page 38: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13

48.00% 15.00% 15.00% 70.00% 5.00%

10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 6.00%

25.00% 15.00% 10.00% 6.00%

10.00% 10.00% 5.00% 10.00% 6.00%

5.00% 25.00% 5.00% 10.00%

5.00%

6.00%

8.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 6.00%

6.00%

5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 6.00%

24.00% 10.00%

5.00% 5.00% 15.00%

5.00% 25.00% 5.00% 5.00%

6.00%

10.00%

20.00%

20.00% 30.00% 40.00%

15.00% 8.00%

5.00%

25.00% 12.00%

10.00%

40.00% 40.00%

12.00%

Rick Ferri Core Four

BillBersteinNo BrainerCowards

BillBersteinNo Brainer

Bill BernsteinSmartMoney

Dilbert's Portfolio

Ted Aronson FamilyTaxable

BillSchultheisCoffee House

FundAdviceUltimateBuy & Hold

Page 39: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13

11.72% 10.72% 11.34% 10.72% 10.77% 12.26% 10.62% 12.01%

14.86% 11.79% 14.34% 11.79% 13.40% 14.90% 11.06% 12.09%

8.57% 6.67% 8.05% 6.67% 7.31% 7.82% 5.85% 6.02%

8.04% 6.19% 8.04% 6.19% 7.36% 9.02% 6.28% 7.89%

10.21% 9.62% 9.86% 9.62% 9.67% 10.81% 9.74% 10.82%

0.51 0.56 0.50 0.56 0.49 0.54 0.58 0.65

0.78 0.86 0.79 0.86 0.79 0.93 0.96 1.16

0.95 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.99 0.86 0.90 0.82

0.87 0.82 0.80 0.82 0.67 0.93 0.74 0.93

137936 119290 126763 119290 120811 159852 123118 160133

123083 128355 121323 128355 115679 163400 111821 153371

64362 55661 59148 55661 56371 74588 57447 74719

13.79 11.93 12.68 11.93 12.08 15.99 12.31 16.01

34.05% 28.36% 38.56% 28.36% 27.69% 33.78% 27.07% 32.71%

28.11% 20.82% 19.81% 20.82% 14.98% 34.22% 18.92% 28.74%

6.95% 4.69% 1.31% 4.69% 1.34% 10.34% 1.51% 11.14%

18.26% 17.09% 15.64% 17.09% 14.65% 22.13% 16.56% 18.83%

21.63% 18.58% 21.12% 18.58% 24.15% 21.15% 16.61% 18.15%

-7.65% -4.48% -4.51% -4.48% -1.73% -9.46% -5.58% -7.04%

27.04% 25.11% 24.62% 25.11% 28.69% 28.68% 25.74% 21.76%

5.12% 9.64% 7.13% 9.64% 8.86% 5.40% 10.20% 5.44%

17.80% 17.39% 16.03% 17.39% 10.19% 24.38% 16.72% 22.89%

0.94% 0.18% 0.49% 0.18% -0.92% 0.72% -0.40% 1.72%

24.33% 20.16% 25.15% 20.16% 30.51% 19.20% 22.60% 15.89%

15.38% 13.48% 16.66% 13.48% 15.75% 10.26% 14.08% 10.57%

17.99% 14.80% 22.10% 14.80% 24.53% 10.24% 17.43% 8.28%

15.32% 6.62% 15.56% 6.62% 18.86% 7.97% 6.75% 8.68%

18.13% 14.18% 15.67% 14.18% 16.44% 25.06% 8.27% 21.39%

-4.43% 2.59% -2.77% 2.59% -3.98% -6.68% 7.25% 3.71%

-7.43% 0.09% -5.36% 0.09% -5.15% -6.19% 1.88% -0.45%

-11.73% -7.12% -13.02% -7.12% -12.19% -6.45% -5.56% -1.65%

28.38% 24.13% 28.80% 24.13% 23.14% 29.98% 23.54% 29.35%

14.32% 12.43% 13.13% 12.43% 10.04% 14.95% 13.80% 15.27%

8.04% 7.25% 5.79% 7.25% 4.91% 11.02% 6.24% 9.18%

17.50% 14.74% 17.12% 14.74% 12.14% 13.17% 15.15% 15.95%

6.43% 4.58% 7.06% 4.58% 5.92% 9.71% 2.63% 6.83%

-30.32% -24.51% -27.79% -24.51% -24.41% -26.79% -20.21% -21.42%

Rick Ferri Core Four

BillBersteinNo BrainerCowards

BillBersteinNo Brainer

Bill BernsteinSmartMoney

Dilbert's Portfolio

Ted Aronson FamilyTaxable

BillSchultheisCoffee House

FundAdviceUltimateBuy & Hold

Page 40: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

26.14% 24.65% 23.99% 24.65% 21.87% 26.55% 20.26% 22.54%

14.42% 13.34% 12.55% 13.34% 13.89% 15.54% 14.68% 13.79%

-0.84% -1.36% -2.54% -1.36% 2.94% 0.36% 2.02% -1.96%

Page 41: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5 P6

P7 P8

P9 P10

P11 P12

P13 P14

P15 P16

P17 P18

P19 P20

P21 P22

P23 P24

P25Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

aliz

ed R

etu

rn

Page 42: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P21

2nd Grader

30.00% 30.00% 60.00% 50.00% 34.00% 25.00% 20.00%

9.25%

6.25%

9.25%

6.25%

20.00% 20.00% 8.00% 20.00%

15.00% 15.00%

5.00% 5.00%

30.00% 31.00% 33.00% 25.00% 20.00%

15.00%

15.00% 15.00% 10.00% 50.00% 33.00% 25.00% 20.00%

15.00% 30.00%

25.00% 20.00%

DavidSwenson Lazy Portfolio

David Swenson Yale Endowment

FrankArmstrongIdeal Idx

Scott Burns Couch Portfolio

Scott Burns Margaritaville

Scott Burns Four Square

Scott Burns Five Fold

Page 43: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P21

11.29% 11.83% 12.32% 10.99% 10.05% 11.41% 10.30% 10.70%

12.61% 12.66% 17.29% 13.03% 10.06% 14.24% 11.25% 11.50%

7.04% 6.58% 10.34% 7.40% 5.52% 8.01% 6.19% 6.35%

6.88% 7.89% 8.22% 7.82% 5.16% 7.67% 5.82% 7.04%

10.18% 10.87% 10.32% 9.66% 9.48% 10.04% 9.41% 9.82%

0.57 0.61 0.47 0.52 0.59 0.51 0.55 0.57

0.89 1.04 0.71 0.81 0.92 0.80 0.86 0.90

0.89 0.89 0.94 0.86 0.96 0.86 0.86 0.86

0.87 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.76 0.95 0.92 0.87

137130 162313 141922 120498 115421 132521 113511 125506

136506 148496 129524 109842 107649 116743 102183 111523

63985 75736 66221 56225 53856 61835 52965 58561

13.71 16.23 14.19 12.05 11.54 13.25 11.35 12.55

28.05% 30.71% 37.10% 32.61% 20.32% 32.50% 24.79% 23.60%

27.11% 28.99% 32.22% 30.01% 18.92% 35.19% 26.95% 25.35%

7.32% 5.98% 9.66% 8.59% 4.85% 11.94% 9.45% 6.80%

17.86% 18.39% 21.53% 19.14% 18.22% 22.10% 18.17% 17.19%

17.25% 18.67% 23.36% 15.61% 17.27% 17.82% 16.64% 15.03%

-6.84% -7.26% -9.57% -9.45% -0.10% -7.23% -3.42% -5.85%

26.12% 27.17% 28.01% 23.07% 25.06% 23.24% 21.08% 23.95%

6.55% 6.69% 3.91% 5.28% 8.44% 2.83% 3.08% 5.34%

18.88% 20.44% 19.43% 20.79% 12.94% 21.44% 19.10% 19.17%

1.69% 0.73% 1.84% 1.45% 1.41% 2.74% 2.26% 2.41%

17.36% 20.06% 24.42% 17.86% 18.19% 15.54% 16.19% 15.96%

16.24% 15.40% 15.22% 12.54% 12.43% 10.89% 9.05% 14.24%

14.56% 15.69% 19.05% 11.60% 19.39% 12.76% 9.20% 11.07%

7.30% 8.15% 18.90% 8.32% 12.93% 13.91% 13.49% 7.53%

14.89% 13.31% 24.03% 13.49% 15.75% 20.50% 14.28% 10.62%

0.60% 2.23% -10.57% 2.04% -2.99% -7.23% -5.29% 1.04%

-2.02% -2.55% -11.89% -3.55% -1.79% -7.94% -5.31% -1.78%

-4.57% -3.27% -15.44% -7.56% -2.18% -6.62% 0.47% 1.13%

26.77% 26.81% 31.71% 26.96% 19.68% 26.61% 24.07% 26.39%

15.65% 16.56% 14.59% 14.50% 10.40% 13.86% 13.30% 16.79%

8.43% 9.16% 8.52% 8.36% 4.29% 8.03% 4.45% 5.93%

17.69% 17.39% 17.34% 17.75% 7.97% 14.21% 12.11% 16.70%

4.87% 5.07% 9.11% 6.15% 8.54% 10.81% 10.47% 5.08%

-26.83% -24.46% -35.74% -25.74% -19.95% -28.09% -21.67% -24.74%

DavidSwenson Lazy Portfolio

David Swenson Yale Endowment

2nd Grader

FrankArmstrongIdeal Idx

Scott Burns Couch Portfolio

Scott Burns Margaritaville

Scott Burns Four Square

Scott Burns Five Fold

Page 44: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

24.39% 22.36% 29.32% 23.07% 19.75% 25.44% 23.35% 24.60%

14.33% 15.28% 14.21% 12.97% 11.63% 11.52% 11.41% 14.78%

1.47% 5.52% -2.47% -3.43% 7.10% -0.11% 2.21% 3.46%

Page 45: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Portfolios Return vs. Risk

P1 P2

P3 P4

P5 P6

P7 P8

P9 P10

P11 P12

P13 P14

P15 P16

P17 P18

P19 P20

P21 P22

P23 P24

P25Annualized Standard Deviation

An

nu

aliz

ed R

etu

rn

Page 46: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

P22 P23 P24 P25

16.67% 25.00%

15.00%

15.00% 15.00%

13.00%

16.66%

4.00% 15.00%

16.66%

13.00%

25.00%

25.00%

16.66% 40.00% 35.00%

16.66%

35.00%

16.66%

25.00%

Scott Burns Six Ways from Sunday

Harry BrownePermanent

LarrySwedroeSimple Portfolio

LarrySwedroeMinimize FatTails Portfolio

Page 47: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

P22 P23 P24 P25

11.59% 8.19% 11.39% 10.48%

11.93% 5.82% 11.94% 8.44%

6.83% 2.30% 6.35% 3.66%

6.37% 4.06% 7.00% 6.09%

10.57% 8.11% 10.37% 9.84%

0.62 0.69 0.61 0.75

0.96 1.39 1.01 1.50

0.83 0.69 0.84 0.67

0.83 0.70 0.85 0.81

150770 82106 143645 126092

141314 84428 138763 165107

70350 38311 67025 58835

15.08 8.21 14.36 12.61

22.02% 18.81% 26.25% 21.20%

23.24% 16.72% 24.41% 22.12%

6.68% 6.54% 7.01% 9.34%

17.88% 4.63% 25.01% 18.85%

19.76% 13.06% 14.85% 16.48%

-5.10% 1.42% -8.00% 0.17%

20.00% 11.79% 25.78% 24.22%

5.47% 3.60% 10.63% 10.78%

20.39% 11.82% 23.08% 22.30%

1.73% -1.49% 1.94% -0.57%

17.52% 17.99% 14.87% 8.30%

17.53% 4.96% 12.19% 8.44%

11.70% 7.07% 14.23% 7.16%

2.85% 10.02% 3.69% -0.24%

12.34% 5.04% 13.73% 13.04%

6.93% 2.28% 3.61% 3.85%

-1.91% -0.56% 1.70% 6.94%

0.84% 5.54% -3.26% 5.38%

27.61% 13.49% 27.30% 17.86%

20.09% 6.28% 15.34% 10.71%

12.37% 8.28% 7.58% 7.24%

17.19% 10.94% 13.15% 8.76%

10.40% 12.49% 6.94% 11.59%

-27.76% -1.90% -23.57% -11.39%

Scott Burns Six Ways from Sunday

Harry BrownePermanent

LarrySwedroeSimple Portfolio

LarrySwedroeMinimize FatTails Portfolio

Page 48: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

26.88% 10.29% 23.93% 20.23%

14.55% 13.83% 13.64% 9.64%

2.59% 9.96% 1.80% 1.92%

Page 49: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Data_Sources

Page 49

Credit to Trevh/Cb/Alec from Vanguard Diehards / Bogleheads forum for compiling this data from various sources.A special thanks to Gummy (gummy-stuff.org) for all the Math & Excel help.

For comments/Feedback/updates visit

Annual Return Data Sources:http://www.tamasset.com/other/AC2705.xlshttp://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2006_Issues/jfp0206-art7.cfmhttps://flagship.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByTypehttp://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/us/annualReturns.jspCPI-U data was collected from http://www.bls.gov/cpi and the actual data was obtained from ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

Credit to Cb/Gnobility/Jeff for calculating the synthetic returns of CCF data Credit to Stratton for the Global Bond Funds DataCredit to CraigR for the Gold returns - http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/22/permanent-portfolio-historical-returns/#more-299

Folowing is the list of the Abbreviations and a summary of the data sources by year range.

MKT = US Cap Weighted Market: EAFE============================= ================================CRSP Market Decile 1-10 1972-1992 MSCI EAFE Index 1972-2000 (Developed Only)Vanguards Total Stock Market Index Fund 1993-2011 Vanguard Developed Mkts Idx (VDMIX) 2001-2011

LCB = US Large Blend: EM===================== ================================S&P 500: Standard & Poors 1972-1976 IFA website (added back expenses):1972-1987 Vanguards 500 Index Fund 1977-2011 (http://www.ifa.com/library/support/data/IFAindexdata.asp)

Allocated 50% IFA Intl Value Index and 50% IFA Intl SmallLCV = US Large Value: MSCI Emerging Mkts Index 1988-1994===================== Vanguard Emerging Mkts Idx - 1995-2011Fama and French 1972-1978 Russell 1000 Value Index 1979-1992Vanguards Value Index Fund 1993-2011 EAFE/EM

INTLT - Total International:LCG = US Large Growth: ================================================== MSCI EAFE Index 1972-1987 (Developed Only)Fama and French 1972-1978 85% EAFE IndexRussell 1000 Growth Index 1979-1992 Vanguards Total International Index Fund 1997-2011Vanguards Growth Index Fund 1993-2011

PacificMCB = US Mid Blend: =============================================== MSCI Data 1972-1990CRSP Decile 3-5 1972-1978 Vanguard Pacific Stock Index (VPACX) 1991-2011Russell Mid Cap Index 1979-1998Vanguards Mid Cap Index Fund 1999-2011

EuropeMCG = US Mid Growth: =============================================== MSCI Data 1972-1984Russell Mid Cap Growth Index 1986-1995 Vanguard Europe Stock Index (VEURX) 1991-2011

http://www.bogleheads.org

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520

http://gnobility.com/Syn_Comm/CCF_1972-2007_san.xls

Page 50: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Data_Sources

Page 50

MSCI Mid Cap Growth Index 1996-2011 International ValueMCG = US Mid Value: =============================================== IFA Intl Value (ifa.com) 1972-1974Russell Mid Cap Value Index 1986-1995 MSCI EAFE Value 1975-1996MSCI Mid Cap Value Index 1996-2011 Vanguard Intl Value (VTRIX) 1997-2011 SCB = US Small Blend: Windsor===================== ==================================Ibbotson 1972-1978 Vanguard Windsor (VWNDX) - 1972-2011Russell 2000 Index 1979-1991Vanguards Small Cap Index Fund 1992-2011 Windsor II

==================================SCV = US Small Value: Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX) 1985-2011=====================Ibbotson 1972-1978 EnergyRussell 2000 Value Index 1979-1998 ============================Vanguards Small Cap Value Index Fund 1999-2011 Vanguard Energy (VGENX) - 1985-2011

SCG = US Small Growth: Health Care====================== ============================Ibbotson 1972–1978 Vanguard Health (VGHCX) - 1985-2011Russell 2000 Growth Index 1979-1998Vanguards Small Cap Growth Index Fund (VISGX) 1999-2011 Precious Metals

============================MICRO = US MicroCap Blend: Vanguard Precious Metals (VGPMX) - 1985-2011==========================CRSP Decile 10 1972-1997 Short Term Treasuries BRSIX Bridgeway Ultra Small Market 1998-2011 ===============================

ST Treasury (2F) IFA website: 1972-1991

Extended market Index Vanguard Short Term Treasury (VFISX) 1992-2011=============================55% Mid-Cap(VIMSX)+45% Small Cap(NAESX) - 1985-1987 5YT - InterTerm Treasury Bonds:VG Extended Mkt - 1988-2011 ===============================

Tamasset Spreadsheet 1972-1991REIT = Real Estate: Vanguards InterTerm Treasury Fund (VFITX) 1992-2011===================Nat. Assn. of Real Estate Inv Trusts 1972-1996 Tbill - Risk Free Benchmark for Sharpe:Vanguards REIT Index Fund - 1997-2011 ===============================

T-Bills 1972-1983Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VMPXX) 1984-2011VG Treasury (VMPXX) merged with Admiral Treasury (VUSXX) in Aug 2009

Page 51: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Data_Sources

Page 51

Credit to Trevh/Cb/Alec from Vanguard Diehards / Bogleheads forum for compiling this data from various sources.

CPI-U data was collected from http://www.bls.gov/cpi and the actual data was obtained from ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

Credit to CraigR for the Gold returns - http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/22/permanent-portfolio-historical-returns/#more-299

ITB = Intermediate Term Bonds:================================ ==============================MSCI EAFE Index 1972-2000 (Developed Only) Ibbotson 1972Vanguard Developed Mkts Idx (VDMIX) 2001-2011 Lehman Brothers 1973-1986

Vanguards Total Bond Index Fund 1987-2011

================================ TIPSIFA website (added back expenses):1972-1987 ===============================(http://www.ifa.com/library/support/data/IFAindexdata.asp) Synthetic TIPS data provided by Cb (Data from Kothari's paper)Allocated 50% IFA Intl Value Index and 50% IFA Intl Small http://www.diehards.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=281MSCI Emerging Mkts Index 1988-1994 Vanguard Inflation-Protected Security Fund (VIPSX) 2001-2011Vanguard Emerging Mkts Idx - 1995-2011

LTGB = Long Term Government Bonds:==================================Tamasset Spreadsheet 1972-1986Vanguards Long Term Treasury(VUSTX) 1987-2011

============================MSCI EAFE Index 1972-1987 (Developed Only) High Yield Corporate

==================================Vanguards Total International Index Fund 1997-2011 Vanguard High Yield Corporate (VWHEX) 1985-2011

CPI-U (Inflation)============================ ==================================

Consumer Price Index - Urban - 1972-2011Vanguard Pacific Stock Index (VPACX) 1991-2011 Compiled by Bureau of Labor and Statistics

Commodities============================

============================ COMM - Commodities/Natural ResourcesCollaterallized Chase Index 1972-1990

Vanguard Europe Stock Index (VEURX) 1991-2011 DJ-AIJ plus T-Bills 1991-1996

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520

http://gnobility.com/Syn_Comm/CCF_1972-2007_san.xls

Page 52: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Data_Sources

Page 52

DJ-AIG plus Yahoo's IPS 'category' returns 1997-2001 (prior to VIPSX)DJ-AIJ plus VIPSX - 2001-2002

============================ Pimco PCRIX 2003-2011IFA Intl Value (ifa.com) 1972-1974MSCI EAFE Value 1975-1996 Global Bonds (Unhedged)Vanguard Intl Value (VTRIX) 1997-2011 ============================

JP Morgan Global Gov Bond - 1987-1996Pimco Global Bond PIGLX Instl - 1997-2011

==================================Vanguard Windsor (VWNDX) - 1972-2011 Short Term Investment Grade

==================================Vanguard ST Investment Grade (VFSTX) 1985-2011

==================================Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX) 1985-2011 Gold

==================================

============================Vanguard Energy (VGENX) - 1985-2011 http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

Kitco returns - 1972 - 2004GLD ETF - 2004 - 2011

============================Vanguard Health (VGHCX) - 1985-2011 International Small

============================Intl Small IFA website (added back expenses):1972-1974

============================ Intl Small 1975-1996Vanguard Precious Metals (VGPMX) - 1985-2011 VG Intl Explorer - 1997 - 2009

FTSE All-World ex-US Small Cap Idx (VFSVX) 2010-2011

===============================ST Treasury (2F) IFA website: 1972-1991

Vanguard Short Term Treasury (VFISX) 1992-2011

5YT - InterTerm Treasury Bonds:===============================Tamasset Spreadsheet 1972-1991Vanguards InterTerm Treasury Fund (VFITX) 1992-2011

Tbill - Risk Free Benchmark for Sharpe:===============================

Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VMPXX) 1984-2011VG Treasury (VMPXX) merged with Admiral Treasury (VUSXX) in Aug 2009

http://www.finfacts.ie/Private/curency/goldmarketprice.htm

http://www.onlygold.com/TutorialPages/prices200yrsfs.htm - 1972-2011

Page 53: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Data_Sources

Page 53

Synthetic TIPS data provided by Cb (Data from Kothari's paper)

Vanguard Inflation-Protected Security Fund (VIPSX) 2001-2011

Page 54: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Data_Sources

Page 54

DJ-AIG plus Yahoo's IPS 'category' returns 1997-2001 (prior to VIPSX)

FTSE All-World ex-US Small Cap Idx (VFSVX) 2010-2011

http://www.onlygold.com/TutorialPages/prices200yrsfs.htm - 1972-2011

Page 55: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Year US Mkt LCV LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG

VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX

Allocation 66%

Amount 2640

1972 11.01

1973 -12.05

1974 -18.04

1975 25.37

1976 17.46

1977 -2.89

1978 4.82

1979 15.03

1980 21.42

1981 -2.56

1982 13.58

1983 14.37

1984 2.84

1985 21.09

1986 10.48

1987 0.99

1988 11.73

1989 18.91

1990 -4.08

1991 22.73

1992 6.33

1993 6.87

1994 -0.11

1995 23.62

1996 13.83

1997 20.45

1998 15.35

1999 15.71

2000 -6.98

2001 -7.24

2002 -13.83

2003 20.69

2004 8.26

2005 3.95

2006 10.24

2007 3.62

2008 -24.45

2009 18.94

2010 11.28

2011 0.63

2012

LCB-500 Idx

Page 56: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

2013

2014

2015

Portfolio Total CAGR Std.Dev C-US C-Intl

Nominal ERROR #VALUE! 20.58 0.78 3.00 0.40 0.32Real 1028971.45 14.88 18.65 0.82 2.45 0.44 0.36

0 39 40 Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = ERRORCorrelation of your portfolio with different assets

Portfolio US Mkt LCV LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG

Correlation VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX

0.40 0.34 0.39 0.42 0.35 0.23 0.36 0.42

Returns without Rebalancing

Year US Mkt LCV LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG

VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX

Allocation 66% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Amount 2640

1972 3080.31

1973 2517.99

1974 1829.62

1975 2532.87

1976 3203.06

1977 3062.71

1978 3286.17

1979 4034.32

1980 5343.40

1981 5135.93

1982 6192.44

1983 7540.45

1984 7864.83

1985 10377.59

1986 12025.53

1987 12206.77

1988 14376.67

1989 18496.39

1990 17353.63

1991 23331.01

1992 25568.87

1993 28230.65

1994 28182.66

1995 38269.23

1996 46290.46

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

LCB-500 Idx

LCB-500 Idx

I58
Correlation with EAFE Intl
Page 57: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1997 60635.87

1998 74739.78

1999 92535.32

2000 82754.34

2001 73676.18

2002 58233.66

2003 76489.91

2004 86066.44

2005 91213.22

2006 105360.39

2007 111144.67

2008 69976.69

2009 90059.99

2010 105451.25

2011 106463.58

2012

2013

2014

2015

%Allocation 45.31%

Portfolio CAGR Std.Dev C-US C-Intl

Nominal ERROR #VALUE! 17.66 0.28 0.66 0.25 0.18

Real ERROR #VALUE! 15.34 0.30 0.43 0.30 0.23

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = ERROR

CoffeeHouse Portfolio

Year LCB LCV SCV SCB EAFE / EM REIT ITB

0 VFINX VIVAX VISVX NAESX VGTSX VGSIX VBMFX Nominal Allocation 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 40%

1972 1.88 1.88 0.68 0.42 3.80 0.78 2.20 11.62

1973 -1.49 -0.38 -2.62 -3.11 -1.50 -1.57 1.28 -9.38

1974 -2.66 -2.33 -1.84 -2.01 -2.37 -2.16 2.71 -10.65

1975 3.70 5.69 5.41 5.24 3.63 1.90 3.23 28.81

1976 2.37 4.37 5.32 5.70 0.29 4.73 4.59 27.38

1977 -0.80 0.12 2.15 2.51 2.26 2.21 1.12 9.58

1978 0.59 0.31 2.15 2.32 3.54 1.01 0.80 10.71

1979 1.80 2.02 3.51 4.28 0.42 3.56 2.55 18.14

1980 3.19 2.41 2.51 3.83 2.29 2.41 2.55 19.20

1981 -0.52 0.11 1.46 0.18 -0.05 0.58 4.23 5.99

1982 2.09 1.97 2.82 2.46 -0.12 2.13 10.06 21.42

1983 2.13 2.80 3.83 2.88 2.54 3.03 3.19 20.41

1984 0.62 0.99 0.21 -0.75 0.79 2.06 5.63 9.55

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

Portfolio Returns

Page 58: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1985 3.12 3.12 3.07 3.08 5.69 1.89 7.11 27.07

1986 1.81 1.97 0.72 0.55 6.83 1.90 5.15 18.92

1987 0.47 0.03 -0.73 -0.90 2.65 -0.38 0.38 1.51

1988 1.62 2.29 2.92 2.46 3.00 1.33 2.94 16.56

1989 3.14 2.49 1.21 1.59 1.86 0.86 5.46 16.61

1990 -0.33 -0.83 -2.20 -1.97 -2.15 -1.56 3.46 -5.58

1991 3.02 2.43 4.14 4.58 1.93 3.54 6.10 25.74

1992 0.74 1.36 2.88 1.79 -0.86 1.44 2.86 10.20

1993 0.99 1.81 2.35 1.87 3.88 1.94 3.87 16.72

1994 0.12 -0.07 -0.17 -0.05 0.55 0.30 -1.06 -0.40

1995 3.75 3.69 2.55 2.87 0.96 1.51 7.27 22.60

1996 2.29 2.19 2.11 1.81 0.75 3.50 1.43 14.08

1997 3.32 2.98 3.15 2.46 -0.11 1.85 3.78 17.43

1998 2.86 1.46 -0.67 -0.26 1.56 -1.63 3.43 6.75

1999 2.11 1.26 0.31 2.31 2.99 -0.40 -0.30 8.27

2000 -0.91 0.61 2.19 -0.27 -1.56 2.64 4.56 7.25

2001 -1.20 -1.19 1.37 0.31 -2.02 1.24 3.37 1.88

2002 -2.22 -2.09 -1.42 -2.00 -1.51 0.38 3.30 -5.56

2003 2.85 3.23 3.72 4.56 4.03 3.57 1.59 23.54

2004 1.07 1.53 2.36 1.99 2.08 3.08 1.70 13.80

2005 0.48 0.71 0.61 0.74 1.56 1.19 0.96 6.24

2006 1.56 2.22 1.92 1.56 2.66 3.51 1.71 15.15

2007 0.54 0.01 -0.71 0.12 1.55 -1.65 2.77 2.63

2008 -3.70 -3.60 -3.21 -3.61 -4.41 -3.71 2.02 -20.21

2009 2.65 1.96 3.03 3.61 3.67 2.96 2.37 20.26

2010 1.49 1.43 2.48 2.77 1.11 2.83 2.57 14.68

2011 0.20 0.10 -0.42 -0.28 -1.46 0.85 3.02 2.02

2012

2013

2014

2015

Portfolio Total CAGR Std.Dev C-US C-Intl

Nominal 529519.03 10.433 11.27 0.50 1.03 0.91 0.68

Real 38574.7607 5.829 11.32 0.48 0.68 0.89 0.670 39 40

Correlation of your portfolio with different assetsPortfolio LCB LCV SCV SCB REIT EAFE/ EM ITB TIPS

Correlation VFINX VIVAX VISVX NAESX VGSIX VGTSX VBMFX VIPSX

0.88 0.88 0.91 0.92 0.81 0.68 0.42 0.27

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 529519.03CHP Real (Rebalanced) = 38574.76

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

Page 59: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

D10 REIT EAFE EM Total Intl Pacific Europe Int.Val COMM LTGB

BRSIX VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX

66%

2640

3.58

-0.90

2.73

5.89

10.89

-0.63

-0.96

-0.96

-2.80

1.08

26.42

0.29

10.03

20.24

15.96

-2.10

6.04

11.83

3.81

11.50

4.88

11.08

-4.64

19.87

-0.83

9.17

8.61

-5.72

13.02

2.84

11.00

1.77

4.70

4.36

1.15

6.10

14.86

-7.95

5.89

19.32

Page 60: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = ERROR Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 1028971.45

D10 REIT EAFE EM Pacific Europe Int.Val COMM LTGB

BRSIX VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX

0.25 0.26 0.32 0.23 0.32 0.26 0.38 0.25 0.40 0.20

D10 REIT EAFE EM Pacific Europe Int.Val COMM LTGB

BRSIX VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 66%

2640

2783.24

2745.49

2858.86

3113.78

3627.46

3592.73

3540.41

3488.85

3340.61

3395.26

4754.58

4775.45

5501.34

7188.06

8925.93

8641.93

9432.67

11123.94

11766.91

13817.88

14840.40

17332.11

16113.66

20965.48

20703.42

EAFE85 / EM15

EAFE85 / EM15

Page 61: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

23581.19

26658.54

24349.91

29151.71

30408.15

35477.18

36427.97

39021.64

41600.97

42324.83

46235.65

56647.91

49821.84

54270.93

70161.46

23.32%

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = ERROR Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = ERROR

Total Total

Nominal Real Real

10000 400011161.63 7.94 4317.58

10115.00 -16.63 3599.36

9037.53 -20.46 2862.76

11641.48 20.46 3448.39

14828.68 21.47 4188.72

16249.15 2.70 4301.71

17989.88 1.55 4368.59

21253.93 4.28 4555.60

25334.52 5.94 4826.18

26852.87 -2.69 4696.40

32604.54 16.94 5491.99

39259.53 16.01 6371.44

43009.22 5.39 6714.83

Portfolio Returns

Page 62: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

54653.21 22.42 8220.48

64993.28 17.63 9669.59

65973.22 -2.80 9398.61

76900.37 11.63 10491.64

89672.61 11.43 11690.86

84669.46 -11.01 10403.33

106461.28 22.00 12691.98

117325.28 7.10 13592.87

136936.92 13.59 15440.62

136394.54 -2.99 14978.80

167225.58 19.57 17910.02

190773.94 10.41 19775.05

224019.97 15.46 22832.54

239149.26 5.06 23987.88

258932.36 5.44 25293.21

277712.73 3.74 26239.06

282939.28 0.33 26324.40

267216.35 -7.75 24284.34

330129.76 21.26 29448.36

375700.88 10.22 32456.77

399125.83 2.73 33341.61

459577.42 12.29 37440.30

471668.90 -1.39 36918.61

376363.49 -20.28 29431.93

452599.67 17.07 34456.45

519054.88 12.99 38931.71

529519.03 -0.92 38574.76

Page 63: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

5 Yr T ITB TBILL STIPS Bal Bal Windsor GOLD VG Intl Smal

VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX

66%

2640

32.12

47.02

47.53

-18.23

-2.96

14.62

24.07

82.93

9.72

-21.69

9.56

-10.98

-12.88

3.47

13.74

14.34

-10.29

-2.13

-1.23

-6.88

-4.04

11.36

-1.69

0.38

-3.28

-14.34

-0.81

0.30

-3.84

0.29

16.47

12.62

2.96

11.72

14.49

20.18

3.27

15.83

19.32

6.32

ST Treasury

Page 64: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 1028971.45

5 Yr T ITB TBILL TIPS Bal Bal Windsor GOLD VG Intl Smal 0

VFITX VBMFX VMPXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX PIGLX VFSVX 0

0.18 0.25 0.01 -0.07 0.35 0.26 0.21 0.11 0.73 0.20

5 Yr T ITB TBILL STIPS Bal Bal Windsor GOLD VG Intl Smal

VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 66% 0% 0%

2640

3924.60

6720.41

11560.38

8367.27

7992.26

9762.61

13322.58

30061.87

34488.98

23153.45

26507.34

22096.79

17784.27

18719.47

22617.67

27530.33

23237.60

22487.76

22069.45

19767.98

18557.59

21751.19

21194.47

21316.58

20257.85

ST Treasury

ST Treasury

Page 65: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

15857.57

15663.77

15734.18

14818.40

14883.05

18597.32

22153.72

23146.81

27257.68

33240.74

43402.44

45555.20

56483.89

73016.73

80004.43

31.37%

Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = ERROR

Page 66: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Total

ERROR

4000

46.70 5868.15

34.07 7867.63

32.21 10402.16

13.02 11756.89

25.39 14742.37

11.10 16378.13

27.92 20951.15

96.99 41271.96

28.33 52964.79

-23.18 40690.09

49.56 60856.46

3.68 63093.07

-0.01 63087.16

44.79 91345.78

40.18 128050.02

13.23 144991.40

7.48 155836.90

28.62 200432.38

-1.49 197444.77

27.35 251454.85

7.17 269492.76

29.31 348481.57

-6.44 326034.90

43.87 469080.34

9.73 514724.58

15.29 593432.62

23.16 730859.72

10.30 806106.57

2.20 823821.57

-4.11 789981.90

13.64 897733.85

35.08 1212668.64

15.92 1405737.64

20.03 1687320.95

25.87 2123864.63

29.90 2758857.68

-6.31 2584784.79

26.82 3278086.11

36.49 4474305.62

26.27 5649911.53

Portfolio Returns

Page 67: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ERROR7920

23.59 9788.15

22.43 11983.89

35.59 16248.85

-13.75 14013.92

5.77 14822.78

10.76 16418.05

22.73 20149.16

86.53 37585.05

14.87 43172.99

-26.61 31684.64

18.21 37454.36

-8.12 34412.68

-9.48 31150.43

16.48 36285.11

20.07 43569.13

11.04 48379.03

-2.75 47046.94

10.76 52108.09

-1.76 51189.99

11.19 56916.87

3.60 58966.87

14.16 67313.95

-2.71 65490.79

23.00 80551.30

8.32 87251.73

Portfolio Returns

Page 68: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

14.70 100074.63

16.97 117062.08

13.29 132619.40

-4.45 126724.44

-6.12 118967.38

-5.60 112308.16

20.27 135071.60

9.75 148234.90

7.99 160071.87

13.03 180925.96

10.98 200782.76

-14.25 172179.80

14.05 196365.73

18.52 232738.90

10.26 256629.46

Page 69: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Growth of 4000 TBILL Inflation0.4 1.0% VMPXX CPI-U

Max. Drawdown Rebalanced = 23.2% 0.244000 Avg. Drawdown Rebalanced = 1.0% 1984

5.41% 4.39%0.97%

41.87 5674.85 0.40 0.40 0.0% 3.55 3.41 0.1423.34 6999.12 0.54 0.54 0.0% 6.64 8.71 -1.9017.69 8237.55 0.71 0.71 0.0% 7.74 12.34 -4.095.69 8706.45 0.80 0.80 0.0% 5.55 6.94 -1.30

19.58 10410.85 1.00 1.00 0.0% 4.85 4.86 -0.024.12 10839.63 1.12 1.12 0.0% 4.85 6.70 -1.74

17.34 12719.24 1.43 1.43 0.0% 6.94 9.02 -1.9073.88 22115.74 2.81 2.81 0.0% 10.14 13.29 -2.7914.06 25224.25 3.61 3.61 0.0% 11.03 12.52 -1.32

-29.47 17791.09 2.77 3.61 23.2% 14.43 8.92 5.0544.04 25627.05 4.15 4.15 0.0% 10.24 3.83 6.17-0.11 25598.47 4.30 4.30 0.0% 8.54 3.79 4.58-3.81 24623.76 4.30 4.30 0.0% 9.54 3.95 5.3839.49 34348.69 6.23 6.23 0.0% 7.37 3.80 3.4438.66 47627.66 8.73 8.73 0.0% 6 1.10 4.858.42 51639.05 9.88 9.88 0.0% 6.12 4.43 1.612.93 53152.67 10.62 10.62 0.0% 7.18 4.42 2.64

22.90 65327.29 13.66 13.66 0.0% 8.87 4.65 4.04-7.16 60650.07 13.46 13.66 1.5% 7.94 6.11 1.7323.57 74944.12 17.14 17.14 0.0% 5.73 3.06 2.594.15 78056.04 18.37 18.37 0.0% 3.53 2.90 0.61

25.85 98234.52 23.75 23.75 0.0% 2.86 2.75 0.11-8.88 89512.59 22.22 23.75 6.4% 3.81 2.67 1.1140.31 125597.41 31.97 31.97 0.0% 5.49 2.54 2.886.20 133387.01 35.09 35.09 0.0% 5.09 3.32 1.71

13.36 151209.43 40.45 40.45 0.0% 5.12 1.70 3.3621.20 183272.33 49.82 49.82 0.0% 5 1.61 3.337.41 196856.68 54.95 54.95 0.0% 4.55 2.68 1.82

-1.15 194592.34 56.16 56.16 0.0% 5.8 3.39 2.33-5.57 183747.91 53.85 56.16 4.1% 3.99 1.55 2.4011.00 203962.75 61.19 61.19 0.0% 1.51 2.38 -0.8532.59 270432.34 82.66 82.66 0.0% 0.82 1.88 -1.0412.27 303603.87 95.82 95.82 0.0% 1 3.26 -2.1816.07 352382.58 115.02 115.02 0.0% 2.77 3.42 -0.6222.75 432561.13 144.77 144.77 0.0% 4.55 2.54 1.9624.80 539855.31 188.06 188.06 0.0% 4.65 4.08 0.55-6.40 505330.66 176.19 188.06 6.3% 1.97 0.09 1.8823.46 623902.33 223.45 223.45 0.0% 0.53 2.72 -2.1334.47 838988.21 304.99 304.99 0.0% 0.01 1.50 -1.4722.64 1028971.45 385.12 385.12 0.0% 0.02 2.96 -2.86

Portfolio Returns Real

Total in 1972 dollars

Previous Max Growth

TBill72Real

Page 70: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Growth of 4000

0.4 4.6% Max. Drawdown Unbalanced = 27.8%

10000 Avg. Drawdown Unbalanced = 4.6%19.52 4780.67 0.40 0.40 0.0%12.63 5384.34 0.49 0.49 0.0%20.70 6498.78 0.66 0.66 0.0%

-19.35 5241.35 0.57 0.66 13.8%0.86 5286.68 0.61 0.66 8.8%3.81 5487.90 0.67 0.67 0.0%

12.57 6177.96 0.82 0.82 0.0%64.65 10171.77 1.54 1.54 0.0%2.09 10384.32 1.76 1.76 0.0%

-32.62 6996.77 1.29 1.76 26.6%13.85 7965.80 1.53 1.76 13.2%

-11.48 7051.57 1.41 1.76 20.3%-12.92 6140.62 1.27 1.76 27.8%12.22 6891.04 1.48 1.76 16.0%18.77 8184.52 1.78 1.78 0.0%6.32 8702.18 1.98 1.98 0.0%

-6.87 8104.40 1.92 1.98 2.8%5.84 8577.62 2.13 2.13 0.0%

-7.42 7941.55 2.09 2.13 1.8%7.88 8567.49 2.33 2.33 0.0%0.68 8625.86 2.41 2.41 0.0%

11.10 9583.50 2.75 2.75 0.0%-5.24 9081.03 2.68 2.75 2.7%19.95 10892.83 3.29 3.29 0.0%4.84 11419.51 3.57 3.57 0.0%

Portfolio Returns Real

Total in 1972 dollars

Previous Max Growth

Page 71: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

12.78 12878.53 4.09 4.09 0.0%15.12 14825.66 4.78 4.78 0.0%10.33 16356.85 5.42 5.42 0.0%-7.58 15117.77 5.18 5.42 4.4%-7.56 13975.52 4.86 5.42 10.3%-7.79 12886.93 4.59 5.42 15.3%18.05 15213.02 5.52 5.52 0.0%6.29 16169.19 6.06 6.06 0.0%4.42 16883.66 6.54 6.54 0.0%

10.23 18610.43 7.39 7.39 0.0%6.62 19843.09 8.21 8.21 0.0%

-14.32 17000.76 7.04 8.21 14.2%11.03 18875.43 8.02 8.21 2.2%16.77 22041.14 9.51 9.51 0.0%7.09 23604.95 10.49 10.49 0.0%

Page 72: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1 0 0 0

46.70% 37.52% 29.81% 26.11% 26.00%34.07% 26.07% 22.79% 26.35% 23.84%32.21% 23.28% 21.64% 23.14% 22.03%13.02% 16.34% 31.74% 19.75% 21.80%25.39% 21.24% 35.13% 22.76% 20.69%11.10% 40.94% 22.51% 24.13% 20.82%27.92% 47.88% 30.02% 24.37% 20.53%96.99% 24.77% 24.67% 22.22% 20.61%28.33% 13.82% 8.86% 17.12% 14.77%

-23.18% 6.01% 11.52% 14.06% 15.65%49.56% 15.74% 25.77% 19.98% 18.43%

3.68% 14.50% 18.96% 16.04% 16.40%-0.01% 26.61% 19.82% 18.64% 17.74%44.79% 31.97% 26.01% 17.85% 18.51%40.18% 19.49% 16.67% 17.78% 15.79%13.23% 16.11% 14.45% 14.93% 12.90%

7.48% 10.84% 13.20% 15.13% 12.92%28.62% 17.29% 17.46% 16.71% 14.66%-1.49% 10.37% 10.22% 14.93% 13.87%27.35% 20.85% 18.89% 15.36% 15.38%

7.17% 9.04% 15.40% 12.13% 15.29%29.31% 20.29% 17.10% 12.79% 16.77%-6.44% 13.88% 15.97% 13.28% 14.29%43.87% 22.10% 19.85% 15.73% 16.63%

9.73% 15.93% 11.92% 13.66% 16.22%15.29% 16.13% 8.95% 15.23% 17.32%23.16% 11.55% 8.63% 16.61%10.30% 2.63% 10.66% 13.46%

2.20% 3.65% 11.76% 15.06%-4.11% 13.75% 15.42% 18.44%13.64% 21.18% 21.87% 21.74%35.08% 23.41% 25.17%15.92% 20.54% 16.34%20.03% 25.20% 18.45%25.87% 15.28% 21.54%29.90% 15.57% 21.61%-6.31% 17.49%26.82% 29.78%36.49%26.27%

Rolling Returns1 year

Rolling Returns3 years

Rolling Returns5 years

Rolling Returns10 years

Rolling Returns15 years

Page 73: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

23.59% 27.07% 13.36% 14.87% 12.04%22.43% 12.71% 10.90% 14.36% 11.24%35.59% 7.34% 10.95% 11.13% 9.55%

-13.75% 0.35% 18.26% 6.72% 8.08%5.77% 12.87% 25.24% 9.98% 9.02%

10.76% 36.36% 16.41% 11.38% 9.38%22.73% 38.03% 17.93% 11.41% 8.90%86.53% 16.29% 11.30% 8.85% 8.37%14.87% -0.12% -3.69% 3.32% 3.77%

-26.61% -7.28% -3.42% 1.72% 4.25%18.21% -0.57% 6.58% 6.03% 6.99%-8.12% -1.05% 5.25% 4.64% 6.77%-9.48% 8.18% 6.45% 6.94% 8.50%16.48% 15.81% 10.84% 7.71% 10.14%20.07% 9.04% 7.13% 8.30% 8.69%11.04% 6.15% 5.49% 7.19% 6.93%-2.75% 1.90% 4.04% 7.54% 5.78%10.76% 6.55% 7.43% 9.54% 7.28%-1.76% 4.21% 4.68% 9.79% 7.22%11.19% 9.56% 9.49% 9.49% 7.90%

3.60% 4.79% 8.92% 7.65% 8.01%14.16% 10.96% 11.16% 6.65% 8.51%-2.71% 9.03% 11.70% 7.21% 6.46%23.00% 15.18% 15.16% 8.51% 7.60%

8.32% 13.27% 9.49% 7.11% 7.33%

Rolling Returns1 year

Rolling Returns3 years

Rolling Returns5 years

Rolling Returns10 years

Rolling Returns15 years

Page 74: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

14.70% 14.98% 6.40% 7.57% 7.46%16.97% 8.19% 2.33% 7.21%13.29% 0.54% 2.90% 3.93%-4.45% -5.39% 2.25% 4.00%-6.12% 2.15% 4.78% 6.27%-5.60% 7.61% 8.75% 7.99%20.27% 12.54% 12.32%

9.75% 10.23% 4.97%7.99% 10.64% 5.78%

13.03% 2.46% 7.77%10.98% 2.77% 7.24%

-14.25% 5.05%14.05% 14.23%18.52%10.26%

Page 75: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1 0 0 0

41.87% 27.23% 21.08% 16.10% 17.96%23.34% 15.34% 13.82% 16.27% 15.86%17.69% 14.15% 12.69% 13.85% 14.47%

5.69% 9.58% 21.84% 11.57% 14.80%19.58% 13.47% 23.71% 14.71% 13.81%

4.12% 28.55% 11.31% 16.42% 14.06%17.34% 32.52% 18.78% 16.90% 14.07%73.88% 11.84% 15.01% 15.37% 14.60%14.06% 5.03% 2.17% 11.44% 9.77%

-29.47% 0.49% 6.37% 9.17% 11.30%44.04% 11.44% 21.77% 15.47% 14.37%-0.11% 10.26% 15.04% 11.78% 12.56%-3.81% 22.99% 15.73% 14.39% 14.02%39.49% 28.00% 21.55% 13.78% 14.86%38.66% 15.67% 12.04% 13.84% 12.26%

8.42% 11.11% 9.49% 10.85% 9.42%2.93% 5.51% 8.61% 11.34% 9.59%

22.90% 12.13% 13.07% 13.18% 11.46%-7.16% 6.11% 6.50% 11.66% 10.78%23.57% 17.44% 15.67% 12.36% 12.45%

4.15% 6.10% 12.22% 9.38% 12.40%25.85% 17.18% 14.14% 10.08% 13.76%-8.88% 10.73% 13.28% 10.66% 11.54%40.31% 19.10% 17.07% 12.99% 13.82%

6.20% 13.42% 9.15% 10.87% 13.50%13.36% 13.85% 6.62% 12.48% 14.59%21.20% 8.77% 6.17% 13.57%

7.41% 0.09% 8.09% 10.67%-1.15% 1.19% 9.05% 12.23%-5.57% 11.59% 12.61% 15.73%11.00% 18.22% 18.68% 18.80%32.59% 19.99% 21.49%12.27% 16.95% 13.32%16.07% 21.15% 15.49%22.75% 12.77% 18.95%24.80% 12.99%-6.40% 15.83%23.46%34.47%22.64%

Rolling Returns(Real)1 year

Rolling Returns(Real)3 years

Rolling Returns(Real)5 years

Rolling Returns(Real)10 years

Rolling Returns(Real)15 years

Page 76: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

-52.19% -13.38% -11.97% -3.51% -1.33%12.63% 3.11% 2.80% 5.24% 4.07%20.70% -0.61% 2.79% 2.73% 2.76%

-19.35% -5.48% 9.37% -0.57% 1.87%0.86% 5.63% 14.65% 2.77% 2.81%3.81% 24.38% 5.77% 4.47% 3.27%

12.57% 23.69% 7.74% 4.72% 3.06%64.65% 4.24% 2.68% 2.75% 2.97%

2.09% -7.83% -9.60% -1.69% -0.75%-32.62% -12.10% -7.87% -2.65% 0.32%13.85% -4.26% 3.19% 2.05% 3.32%

-11.48% -4.72% 1.78% 0.80% 3.25%-12.92% 5.09% 2.82% 3.12% 5.08%12.22% 12.32% 6.91% 3.99% 6.75%18.77% 5.55% 2.88% 4.69% 5.38%

6.32% 1.58% 0.92% 3.39% 3.63%-6.87% -3.00% -0.18% 4.00% 2.65%5.84% 1.87% 3.41% 6.23% 4.29%

-7.42% 0.19% 1.15% 6.67% 4.32%7.88% 6.46% 6.52% 6.65% 5.16%0.68% 1.96% 5.92% 5.02% 5.31%

11.10% 8.09% 8.35% 4.10% 5.71%-5.24% 6.02% 9.12% 4.73% 3.90%19.95% 12.35% 12.49% 5.94% 5.00%

4.84% 10.82% 6.77% 4.48% 4.81%

Rolling Returns(Real)1 year

Rolling Returns(Real)3 years

Rolling Returns(Real)5 years

Rolling Returns(Real)10 years

Rolling Returns(Real)15 years

Page 77: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

12.78% 12.72% 4.12% 5.01% 4.96%15.12% 5.49% 0.01% 4.42%10.33% -1.95% 0.52% 1.38%-7.58% -7.64% -0.23% 1.44%-7.56% 0.21% 2.23% 3.84%-7.79% 4.98% 5.90% 5.38%18.05% 9.42% 9.02%

6.29% 6.95% 2.25%4.42% 7.06% 3.14%

10.23% 0.23% 5.48%6.62% 0.47% 4.87%

-14.32% 3.56%11.03% 11.56%16.77%

7.09%

Page 78: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Year MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG

VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX

Allocation 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Amount 5000

1985 15.97

1986 7.94

1987 0.75

1988 8.89

1989 14.33

1990 -3.09

1991 17.22

1992 4.80

1993 5.21

1994 -0.09

1995 17.90

1996 10.48

1997 15.50

1998 11.63

1999 11.91

2000 -5.29

2001 -5.49

2002 -10.48

2003 15.68

2004 6.26

2005 2.99

2006 7.76

2007 2.75

2008 -18.52

2009 14.35

2010 8.55

2011 0.48

2012

2013

2014

2015

Portfolio Total CAGR Std. Dev C-US C-IntlNominal 141055.71 10.30 15.30 0.47 0.73 0.93 0.90Real 65817.12 7.23 14.88 0.47 0.76 0.93 0.89

0 26 27 Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = 141055.71Correlation of your portfolio with different assets

Portfolio US Mkt LCV LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG

Correlation VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

LCB-500 Idx

H44
Correlation with S&P (VFINX)
I44
Correlation with EAFE Intl
Page 79: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.93 0.91 0.92 0.86 0.86 0.67 0.82 0.82

Returns without Rebalancing

Year MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG

VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX

Allocation 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Amount 5000

1985 6597.46

1986 7645.13

1987 7760.35

1988 9139.85

1989 11758.93

1990 11032.43

1991 14832.50

1992 16255.20

1993 17947.40

1994 17916.89

1995 24329.35

1996 29428.78

1997 38548.76

1998 47515.20

1999 58828.57

2000 52610.39

2001 46839.03

2002 37021.57

2003 48627.83

2004 54716.03

2005 57988.05

2006 66982.00

2007 70659.31

2008 44487.10

2009 57254.90

2010 67039.76

2011 67683.35

2012

2013

2014

2015

Allocation 52.16%

Page 80: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Portfolio Total CAGR Std. Dev C-US C-IntlNominal 123711.93 9.76 17.08 0.41 0.59 0.91 0.92Real 57724.45 6.71 16.62 0.41 0.60 0.91 0.92 Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = 123711.93

CoffeeHouse Portfolio

Year LCV LCB SCV SCB REIT EAFE/ EM ITB

VIVAX VFINX VISVX NAESX VGSIX VGTSX VBMFX Nominal

Allocation 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 40%

1985 3.12 3.12 3.07 3.08 1.89 5.69 7.11 27.07

1986 1.97 1.81 0.72 0.55 1.90 6.83 5.15 18.92

1987 0.03 0.47 -0.73 -0.90 -0.38 2.65 0.38 1.51

1988 2.29 1.62 2.92 2.46 1.33 3.00 2.94 16.56

1989 2.49 3.14 1.21 1.59 0.86 1.86 5.46 16.61

1990 -0.83 -0.33 -2.20 -1.97 -1.56 -2.15 3.46 -5.58

1991 2.43 3.02 4.14 4.58 3.54 1.93 6.10 25.74

1992 1.36 0.74 2.88 1.79 1.44 -0.86 2.86 10.20

1993 1.81 0.99 2.35 1.87 1.94 3.88 3.87 16.72

1994 -0.07 0.12 -0.17 -0.05 0.30 0.55 -1.06 -0.40

1995 3.69 3.75 2.55 2.87 1.51 0.96 7.27 22.60

1996 2.19 2.29 2.11 1.81 3.50 0.75 1.43 14.08

1997 2.98 3.32 3.15 2.46 1.85 -0.11 3.78 17.43

1998 1.46 2.86 -0.67 -0.26 -1.63 1.56 3.43 6.75

1999 1.26 2.11 0.31 2.31 -0.40 2.99 -0.30 8.27

2000 0.61 -0.91 2.19 -0.27 2.64 -1.56 4.56 7.25

2001 -1.19 -1.20 1.37 0.31 1.24 -2.02 3.37 1.88

2002 -2.09 -2.22 -1.42 -2.00 0.38 -1.51 3.30 -5.56

2003 3.23 2.85 3.72 4.56 3.57 4.03 1.59 23.54

2004 1.53 1.07 2.36 1.99 3.08 2.08 1.70 13.80

2005 0.71 0.48 0.61 0.74 1.19 1.56 0.96 6.24

2006 2.22 1.56 1.92 1.56 3.51 2.66 1.71 15.15

2007 0.01 0.54 -0.71 0.12 -1.65 1.55 2.77 2.63

2008 -3.60 -3.70 -3.21 -3.61 -3.71 -4.41 2.02 -20.21

2009 1.96 2.65 3.03 3.61 2.96 3.67 2.37 20.26

2010 1.43 1.49 2.48 2.77 2.83 1.11 2.57 14.68

2011 0.10 0.20 -0.42 -0.28 0.85 -1.46 3.02 2.02

2012

2013

2014

2015

Portfolio Total CAGR Std Dev C-US C-Intl

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

Portfolio Returns

Sharpe Ratio

Sortino Ratio

Page 81: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Nominal 49247.029888216 9.744 10.97 0.56 0.91 0.90 0.74

Real 57447.12216557 10.372 10.70 0.56 0.94 0.89 0.73

0 26 27

Correlation of your portfolio with different assets

Portfolio LCB LCV SCV SCB REIT EAFE/ EM ITB TIPS

Correlation VFINX VIVAX VISVX NAESX VGSIX VGTSX VBMFX VIPSX

0.88 0.95 0.89 0.92 0.78 0.74 0.45 0.29

CHP Nominal (Rebalanced) = 49247.03CHP Real (Rebalanced) = 57447.12

Rolling Returns

100001985 13703.36 37.03% 25.29% 23.46% 15.30% 16.40%1986 18006.01 31.40% 19.55% 14.08% 14.23% 13.42%1987 19665.31 9.22% 16.79% 13.13% 12.53% 10.59%1988 23411.55 19.05% 10.43% 11.97% 13.31% 9.00%1989 28680.08 22.50% 12.54% 11.98% 13.25% 9.54%1990 26480.93 -7.67% 6.46% 7.68% 13.03% 8.96%1991 33366.18 26.00% 15.90% 14.38% 13.09% 10.12%1992 34607.33 3.72% 7.55% 11.94% 9.35% 9.54%1993 41225.92 19.12% 14.42% 14.66% 7.54% 9.93%1994 41511.80 0.69% 12.46% 14.53% 8.34% 6.19%1995 51835.79 24.87% 18.22% 18.65% 9.62% 7.73%1996 58633.54 13.11% 16.15% 11.82% 8.05% 7.04%1997 68583.18 16.97% 18.52% 6.82% 8.36% 6.03%1998 81224.43 18.43% 9.73% 0.87% 7.63%1999 97613.08 20.18% 0.13% 2.49% 2.25%2000 90622.03 -7.16% -9.81% 1.27% 2.66%2001 81541.70 -10.02% 0.45% 4.40% 4.73%2002 71614.82 -12.17% 8.43% 9.92% 5.63%2003 91846.72 28.25% 16.22% 14.85%2004 103963.14 13.19% 12.51% 2.02%2005 112410.14 8.13% 11.24% 4.07%2006 130817.30 16.38% -3.35% 5.05%2007 143110.20 9.40% -1.01% 1.52%2008 101485.17 -29.09% 0.17%2009 126887.92 25.03% 11.60%2010 143828.73 13.35%2011 141055.71 -1.93%2012

2013

2014

2015

Portfolio Balance

Rolling Returns1 year

Rolling Returns3 years

Rolling Returns5 years

Rolling Returns10 years

Rolling Returns15 years

Page 82: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

D10 REIT EAFED EM Total Intl Pacific Europe Intl Value COMM

BRSIX VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX

0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0%

3000

17.06

20.50

7.94

9.00

5.57

-6.46

5.78

-2.58

11.63

1.64

2.89

2.25

-0.32

4.68

8.98

-4.68

-6.04

-4.52

12.10

6.25

4.67

7.99

4.66

-13.23

11.02

3.34

-4.37

Portfolio Nominal (Rebalanced) = 141055.71 Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 65817.12

D10 REIT EAFE EM Pacific Europe Intl.Val COMM

BRSIX VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX

EAFE85 / EM15

Page 83: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.61 0.53 0.88 0.77 0.90 0.70 0.92 0.85 0.26

D10 REIT EAFED EM Total Intl Pacific Europe Intl Value COMM

BRSIX VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX

0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0%

3000

4706.13

7921.73

10017.03

13021.12

15440.85

12114.97

14448.45

13207.71

18329.54

19334.26

21194.87

22784.50

22543.12

26059.84

33856.95

28571.88

22814.65

19374.20

27189.75

32856.09

37971.79

48087.47

55550.64

31052.81

42458.51

47179.89

40310.50

36.71%

Page 84: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Portfolio Nominal (Unbalanced) = 123711.93 Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = 57724.45

Total Total

Nominal REAL REAL

4000 100005082.93 22.42 12242.28

6044.59 17.63 14400.35

6135.73 -2.80 13996.80

7151.99 11.63 15624.57

8339.85 11.43 17410.51

7874.54 -11.01 15493.07

9901.25 22.00 18901.41

10911.64 7.10 20243.06

12735.59 13.59 22994.81

12685.15 -2.99 22307.04

15552.53 19.57 26672.34

17742.61 10.41 29449.82

20834.60 15.46 34003.16

22241.68 5.06 35723.74

24081.57 5.44 37667.70

25828.21 3.74 39076.30

26314.29 0.33 39203.38

24852.01 -7.75 36165.24

30703.17 21.26 43855.71

34941.43 10.22 48335.95

37120.03 2.73 49653.70

42742.23 12.29 55757.64

43866.78 -1.39 54980.71

35003.06 -20.28 43831.24

42093.27 17.07 51313.96

48273.83 12.99 57978.71

49247.03 -0.92 57447.12

PortfolioReturns

Page 85: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

11985 1.37 37.03% 25.29% 23.46%1986 1.80 31.40% 19.55% 14.08%1987 1.97 9.22% 16.79% 13.13%1988 2.34 19.05% 10.43% 11.97%1989 2.87 22.50% 12.54% 11.98%1990 2.65 -7.67% 6.46% 7.68%1991 3.34 26.00% 15.90% 14.38%1992 3.46 3.72% 7.55% 11.94%1993 4.12 19.12% 14.42% 14.66%1994 4.15 0.69% 12.46% 14.53%1995 5.18 24.87% 18.22% 18.65%1996 5.86 13.11% 16.15% 11.82%1997 6.86 16.97% 18.52% 6.82%1998 8.12 18.43% 9.73% 0.87%1999 9.76 20.18% 0.13% 2.49%2000 9.06 -7.16% -9.81% 1.27%2001 8.15 -10.02% 0.45% 4.40%2002 7.16 -12.17% 8.43% 9.92%2003 9.18 28.25% 16.22% 14.85%2004 10.40 13.19% 12.51% 2.02%2005 11.24 8.13% 11.24% 4.07%2006 13.08 16.38% -3.35% 5.05%2007 14.31 9.40% -1.01% 1.52%2008 10.15 -29.09% 0.17%2009 12.69 25.03% 11.60%2010 14.38 13.35%2011 14.11 -1.93%2012

2013

2014

2015

Portfolio ReturnsCumulative

Rolling Returns1 year

Rolling Returns3 years

Rolling Returns5 years

Page 86: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

LTGB 5 Yr T ITB TBILL TIPS Wellington Wellesley Energy Health P.Metals

VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX

0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2000

4.00

2.96

0.53

1.16

2.60

1.88

3.00

1.50

2.29

-0.87

4.09

0.38

1.79

2.12

-0.70

2.81

1.51

2.83

0.47

0.68

0.46

0.63

2.00

2.66

-0.34

1.47

1.96

Portfolio Real (Rebalanced) = 65817.12

LTGB 5 Yr T ITB TBILL STIPS Bal Bal Energy Health P.Metals

VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VMPXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX

Page 87: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.01 0.03 0.32 0.24 0.31 0.88 0.66 0.51 0.57 0.43

LTGB 5 Yr T ITB TBILL TIPS Wellington Wellesley Energy Health P.Metals

VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX

0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2000

2399.76

2754.96

2827.50

2992.20

3381.37

3699.75

4254.75

4573.87

5096.67

4875.98

5872.63

5985.39

6521.68

7213.63

6959.71

7936.15

8535.33

9743.08

9973.99

10313.11

10552.37

10883.72

11969.91

13564.31

13335.07

14315.20

15718.09

11.14%

Page 88: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Portfolio Real (Unbalanced) = 57724.45

Page 89: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

15.30% 16.40%14.23% 13.42%12.53% 10.59%13.31% 9.00%13.25% 9.54%13.03% 8.96%13.09% 10.12%

9.35% 9.54%7.54% 9.93%8.34% 6.19%9.62% 7.73%8.05% 7.04%8.36% 6.03%7.63%2.25%2.66%4.73%5.63%

Rolling Returns10 years

Rolling Returns15 years

Page 90: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a
Page 91: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Windsor Windsor II V Int TE V LT TE Hi-Yld C

VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX VWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Windsor WindsorII ST TE Inter TE LT TE MCG MCV Global Bo ST Inves

VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX VWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

V ST TE

ST Treasury

MidCap Growth

MidCap Val

V Ext Mkt

Global Bond Fund

ST Investment Grade

Hi-Yld Corp

ST Trsry

VG Ext Mkt

Page 92: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.83 0.77 0.23 0.48 0.50 0.81 0.14 0.86 0.76 0.90 0.24 0.61

Windsor Windsor II V Int TE Hi-Yld C

VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX VWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

V ST TE

V LT TE

ST Treasury

MidCap Growth

MidCap Val

V Ext Mkt

Global Bond Fund

ST Investment Grade

Page 93: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a
Page 94: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

GOLD Total

GLD VFSVX

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

10000

37.03 13703.36

31.40 18006.01

9.22 19665.31

19.05 23411.55

22.50 28680.08

-7.67 26480.93

26.00 33366.18

3.72 34607.33

19.12 41225.92

0.69 41511.80

24.87 51835.79

13.11 58633.54

16.97 68583.18

18.43 81224.43

20.18 97613.08

-7.16 90622.03

-10.02 81541.70

-12.17 71614.82

28.25 91846.72

13.19 103963.14

8.13 112410.14

16.38 130817.30

9.40 143110.20

-29.09 101485.17

25.03 126887.92

13.35 143828.73

-1.93 141055.71

GOLD VG Intl S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GLD VFSVX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

VG Intl Small

Portfolio Returns

Page 95: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.03 0.77

GOLD Total

GLD VFSVX

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1000037.03 13703.36

33.70 18321.82

12.46 20604.89

22.07 25153.17

21.58 30581.15

-12.21 26847.15

24.91 33535.70

1.49 34036.78

21.56 41373.61

1.82 42127.14

22.00 51396.85

13.23 58198.66

16.18 67613.55

19.49 80788.67

23.34 99645.22

-10.56 89118.42

-12.26 78189.01

-15.41 66138.85

29.71 85791.57

14.10 97885.24

8.81 106512.21

18.25 125953.19

9.71 138179.87

-35.52 89104.22

26.87 113048.48

13.70 128534.85

-3.75 123711.93

VG Intl Small

Portfolio Returns

Page 96: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a
Page 97: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

TBILL Inflation1 4.0% VMPXX CPI-U

Max. Drawdown Rebalanced = 29.1% 0.2410000 Avg. Drawdown Rebalanced = 4.0% 1984

4.16% 2.87%1.25%

32.02 13201.86 1.00 1.00 0.0% 7.37 3.8029.97 17158.67 1.31 1.31 0.0% 6 1.104.58 17944.17 1.44 1.44 0.0% 6.12 4.43

14.01 20458.39 1.71 1.71 0.0% 7.18 4.4217.06 23949.34 2.09 2.09 0.0% 8.87 4.65

-12.98 20840.37 1.93 2.09 7.7% 7.94 6.1122.25 25478.31 2.43 2.43 0.0% 5.73 3.060.80 25681.13 2.53 2.53 0.0% 3.53 2.90

15.94 29774.28 3.01 3.01 0.0% 2.86 2.75-1.93 29199.68 3.03 3.03 0.0% 3.81 2.6721.78 35559.01 3.78 3.78 0.0% 5.49 2.549.48 38928.83 4.28 4.28 0.0% 5.09 3.32

15.01 44772.53 5.00 5.00 0.0% 5.12 1.7016.55 52183.84 5.93 5.93 0.0% 5 1.6117.04 61073.42 7.12 7.12 0.0% 4.55 2.68

-10.20 54841.95 6.61 7.12 7.2% 5.8 3.39-11.39 48592.76 5.95 7.12 16.5% 3.99 1.55-14.21 41686.24 5.23 7.12 26.6% 1.51 2.3825.89 52476.72 6.70 7.12 5.9% 0.82 1.889.62 57526.63 7.59 7.59 0.0% 1 3.264.55 60146.28 8.20 8.20 0.0% 2.77 3.42

13.49 68260.96 9.55 9.55 0.0% 4.55 2.545.11 71747.25 10.44 10.44 0.0% 4.65 4.08

-29.15 50832.37 7.41 10.44 29.1% 1.97 0.0921.72 61873.27 9.26 10.44 11.3% 0.53 2.7211.68 69097.51 10.50 10.50 0.0% 0.01 1.50-4.75 65817.12 10.29 10.50 1.9% 0.02 2.96

Portfolio Returns Real

Total in 1985 dollars

Growth of 10000

Previous Max Growth

Page 98: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1 5.9%Max. Drawdown Unbalanced = 35.5%

10000 Avg. Drawdown Unbalanced = 5.9%32.02 13201.86 1.00 1.00 0.0%32.25 17459.61 1.34 1.34 0.0%7.69 18801.52 1.50 1.50 0.0%

16.91 21980.32 1.84 1.84 0.0%16.18 25536.84 2.23 2.23 0.0%

-17.26 21128.58 1.96 2.23 12.2%21.20 25607.75 2.45 2.45 0.0%-1.37 25257.74 2.48 2.48 0.0%18.30 29880.94 3.02 3.02 0.0%-0.83 29632.52 3.07 3.07 0.0%18.98 35257.90 3.75 3.75 0.0%9.59 38640.10 4.25 4.25 0.0%

14.23 44139.54 4.93 4.93 0.0%17.59 51903.89 5.90 5.90 0.0%20.12 62344.87 7.27 7.27 0.0%

-13.49 53932.01 6.50 7.27 10.6%-13.60 46594.81 5.71 7.27 21.5%-17.38 38498.73 4.83 7.27 33.6%27.32 49017.11 6.26 7.27 13.9%10.50 54163.51 7.14 7.27 1.8%5.22 56990.53 7.77 7.77 0.0%

15.32 65722.85 9.19 9.19 0.0%5.41 69275.46 10.08 10.08 0.0%

-35.57 44630.95 6.50 10.08 35.5%23.51 55124.86 8.25 10.08 18.2%12.02 61750.10 9.38 10.08 7.0%-6.52 57724.45 9.03 10.08 10.5%

Portfolio Returns Real

Total in 1985 dollars

Growth of 10000

Previous Max Growth

Page 99: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a
Page 100: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1 0 0 0

3.44 37.03% 25.29% 23.46% 15.30% 16.40%4.85 31.40% 19.55% 14.08% 14.23% 13.42%1.61 9.22% 16.79% 13.13% 12.53% 10.59%2.64 19.05% 10.43% 11.97% 13.31% 9.00%4.04 22.50% 12.54% 11.98% 13.25% 9.54%1.73 -7.67% 6.46% 7.68% 13.03% 8.96%2.59 26.00% 15.90% 14.38% 13.09% 10.12%0.61 3.72% 7.55% 11.94% 9.35% 9.54%0.11 19.12% 14.42% 14.66% 7.54% 9.93%1.11 0.69% 12.46% 14.53% 8.34% 6.19%2.88 24.87% 18.22% 18.65% 9.62% 7.73%1.71 13.11% 16.15% 11.82% 8.05% 7.04%3.36 16.97% 18.52% 6.82% 8.36% 6.03%3.33 18.43% 9.73% 0.87% 7.63%1.82 20.18% 0.13% 2.49% 2.25%2.33 -7.16% -9.81% 1.27% 2.66%2.40 -10.02% 0.45% 4.40% 4.73%

-0.85 -12.17% 8.43% 9.92% 5.63%-1.04 28.25% 16.22% 14.85%-2.18 13.19% 12.51% 2.02%-0.62 8.13% 11.24% 4.07%1.96 16.38% -3.35% 5.05%0.55 9.40% -1.01% 1.52%1.88 -29.09% 0.17%

-2.13 25.03% 11.60%-1.47 13.35%-2.86 -1.93%

TBill85Real

Rolling Returns1 year

Rolling Returns3 years

Rolling Returns5 years

Rolling Returns10 years

Rolling Returns15 years

Page 101: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

37.03% 27.25% 25.05% 15.47% 16.56%33.70% 22.44% 14.40% 14.13% 13.29%12.46% 18.62% 12.85% 12.25% 10.16%22.07% 9.22% 10.56% 12.62% 8.09%21.58% 10.06% 10.47% 12.38% 8.52%

-12.21% 3.63% 6.62% 12.54% 8.06%24.91% 15.51% 13.87% 12.75% 9.62%

1.49% 7.90% 11.66% 8.83% 9.22%21.56% 14.73% 14.71% 6.87% 9.79%

1.82% 12.05% 14.32% 7.57% 5.25%22.00% 17.08% 18.79% 8.80% 6.80%13.23% 16.27% 11.64% 7.56% 6.30%16.18% 19.63% 6.08% 8.03% 5.16%19.49% 9.64% -0.44% 7.41%23.34% -1.08% 1.21% 0.98%

-10.56% -12.77% -0.36% 1.27%-12.26% -1.26% 3.63% 3.73%-15.41% 7.78% 10.01% 4.70%29.71% 17.21% 15.88%14.10% 13.65% 0.76%

8.81% 12.18% 2.92%18.25% -5.77% 3.83%

9.71% -3.54% -0.36%-35.52% -2.38%26.87% 11.56%13.70%-3.75%

Rolling Returns1 year

Rolling Returns3 years

Rolling Returns5 years

Rolling Returns10 years

Rolling Returns15 years

Page 102: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1 0 0 0

32.02% 21.52% 19.09% 11.31% 12.82%29.97% 15.72% 9.56% 10.42% 9.96%

4.58% 11.76% 8.23% 8.54% 7.19%14.01% 5.11% 7.43% 9.57% 5.78%17.06% 7.59% 7.79% 9.82% 6.48%

-12.98% 2.35% 4.04% 9.81% 6.02%22.25% 12.63% 11.28% 10.16% 7.32%

0.80% 4.65% 8.85% 6.67% 6.79%15.94% 11.46% 11.76% 4.96% 7.09%-1.93% 9.35% 11.88% 5.83% 3.63%21.78% 15.31% 15.90% 7.02% 5.13%

9.48% 13.64% 9.05% 5.40% 4.53%15.01% 16.20% 4.53% 5.78% 3.56%16.55% 7.00% -1.42% 4.83%17.04% -2.35% 0.11% -0.26%

-10.20% -11.95% -1.19% 0.13%-11.39% -1.46% 1.86% 2.34%-14.21% 5.79% 7.03% 3.08%25.89% 13.00% 11.47%

9.62% 9.16% -0.63%4.55% 7.64% 1.47%

13.49% -5.45% 2.81%5.11% -3.22% -0.73%

-29.15% -1.25%21.72% 8.99%11.68%-4.75%

Rolling Returns(Real)1 year

Rolling Returns(Real)3 years

Rolling Returns(Real)5 years

Rolling Returns(Real)10 years

Rolling Returns(Real)15 years

Page 103: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

32.02% 23.42% 20.62% 11.47% 12.98%32.25% 18.52% 9.86% 10.32% 9.84%

7.69% 13.51% 7.96% 8.27% 6.76%16.91% 3.97% 6.08% 8.91% 4.89%16.18% 5.22% 6.33% 8.97% 5.49%

-17.26% -0.37% 3.02% 9.34% 5.14%21.20% 12.25% 10.78% 9.82% 6.84%-1.37% 4.99% 8.58% 6.17% 6.49%18.30% 11.76% 11.81% 4.31% 6.96%-0.83% 8.95% 11.68% 5.07% 2.71%18.98% 14.21% 16.04% 6.22% 4.23%

9.59% 13.76% 8.87% 4.92% 3.81%14.23% 17.29% 3.81% 5.46% 2.71%17.59% 6.91% -2.70% 4.61%20.12% -3.53% -1.14% -1.50%

-13.49% -14.84% -2.77% -1.22%-13.60% -3.13% 1.11% 1.36%-17.38% 5.15% 7.12% 2.17%27.32% 13.97% 12.47%10.50% 10.27% -1.86%

5.22% 8.55% 0.35%15.32% -7.83% 1.62%

5.41% -5.69% -2.56%-35.57% -3.76%23.51% 8.95%12.02%-6.52%

Rolling Returns(Real)1 year

Rolling Returns(Real)3 years

Rolling Returns(Real)5 years

Rolling Returns(Real)10 years

Rolling Returns(Real)15 years

Page 104: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

YEAR MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG D10 REIT2011 VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX VGSIX

ER 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.67 0.21YOI 1993 1993 1977 1992 1999 1999 1992 1999 1998 1997

Minimum for the Year

1972 16.68 18.75 18.79 21.23 8.86 6.75 4.16 3.46 -0.86 7.771973 -18.26 -3.80 -14.85 -21.77 -26.66 -26.17 -31.06 -39.24 -42.09 -15.681974 -27.34 -23.26 -26.63 -29.36 -25.36 -18.39 -20.08 -33.55 -29.37 -21.561975 38.44 56.87 36.95 33.91 57.05 54.15 52.45 62.83 71.25 19.051976 26.46 43.70 23.68 17.54 40.09 53.25 57.04 43.17 54.66 47.291977 -4.38 1.19 -7.97 -9.90 3.77 21.52 25.11 20.02 22.38 22.141978 7.30 3.08 5.90 6.67 10.66 21.52 23.22 18.33 27.55 10.071979 22.77 20.25 18.00 23.63 32.21 35.09 42.77 50.45 41.25 35.621980 32.45 24.14 31.90 39.29 32.21 25.11 38.28 51.95 29.63 24.141981 -3.88 1.09 -5.20 -11.49 2.18 14.64 1.77 -9.41 7.08 5.781982 20.57 19.75 20.90 20.24 23.03 28.21 24.61 20.72 27.15 21.351983 21.77 28.03 21.30 15.75 23.53 38.28 28.80 19.82 36.39 30.331984 4.30 9.87 6.21 -1.22 1.18 2.07 -7.51 -15.99 -20.04 20.651985 31.95 31.22 31.23 32.61 31.71 30.70 30.80 30.70 24.86 18.851986 15.88 19.75 18.06 15.15 17.94 7.15 5.46 3.36 -0.37 18.951987 1.51 0.29 4.71 5.07 -0.02 -7.31 -9.01 -10.71 -15.47 -3.801988 17.78 22.94 16.22 11.06 19.54 29.20 24.61 20.12 20.00 13.261989 28.66 24.94 31.36 35.60 26.02 12.14 15.93 19.92 4.80 8.571990 -6.18 -8.29 -3.32 -0.52 -11.69 -21.98 -19.68 -17.59 -31.76 -15.581991 34.44 24.34 30.22 40.89 41.19 41.37 45.76 50.85 47.31 35.421992 9.59 13.56 7.42 4.77 16.14 28.80 17.93 7.55 32.71 14.361993 10.41 18.10 9.89 1.53 14.05 23.52 18.70 13.14 24.57 19.451994 -0.17 -0.73 1.18 2.89 -2.31 -1.73 -0.51 -2.62 -3.55 2.981995 35.79 36.94 37.45 38.06 34.10 25.51 28.74 30.70 29.23 15.061996 20.96 21.86 22.88 23.74 18.74 21.12 18.12 11.04 16.02 35.021997 30.99 29.77 33.19 36.34 28.72 31.50 24.59 12.64 20.69 18.521998 23.26 14.64 28.62 42.21 9.86 -6.71 -2.61 0.97 -2.46 -16.321999 23.81 12.57 21.07 28.76 15.07 3.11 23.13 19.53 31.49 -4.042000 -10.57 6.08 -9.06 -22.21 18.10 21.88 -2.67 1.59 0.67 26.352001 -10.97 -11.88 -12.02 -12.93 -0.50 13.70 3.10 -0.78 23.98 12.352002 -20.96 -20.91 -22.15 -23.68 -14.61 -14.20 -20.02 -15.41 4.90 3.752003 31.35 32.25 28.50 25.92 34.14 37.19 45.63 42.88 79.43 35.652004 12.52 15.29 10.74 7.20 20.35 23.55 19.90 16.06 20.12 30.762005 5.98 7.09 4.77 5.09 13.93 6.07 7.36 8.64 4.08 11.892006 15.51 22.15 15.64 9.01 13.60 19.24 15.64 11.94 11.48 35.072007 5.49 0.09 5.39 12.56 6.02 -7.07 1.16 9.63 -5.40 -16.462008 -37.04 -35.97 -37.02 -38.32 -41.82 -32.05 -36.07 -40.00 -39.49 -37.052009 28.70 19.58 26.49 36.29 40.22 30.34 36.12 41.85 25.95 29.582010 17.09 14.28 14.91 16.96 25.46 24.82 27.72 30.69 24.86 28.302011 0.96 1.00 1.97 1.71 -2.11 -4.16 -2.80 -1.58 -7.86 8.47201220132014

Page 105: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

2015

VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX VGSIX

Average 11.34 12.77 11.18 11.01 13.86 14.79 13.91 12.19 14.14 13.41StDEV 18.40 18.19 18.10 20.92 20.13 20.86 22.39 24.41 26.89 18.57CAGR 9.68 11.21 9.58 8.89 11.91 12.79 11.60 9.39 10.82 11.75Variance 338.43 331.04 327.73 437.82 405.15 435.00 501.42 595.95 723.17 344.76

1.00 0.93 0.99 0.96 0.92 0.76 0.85 0.86 0.73 0.62

0.66 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.59 0.46 0.53 0.54 0.45 0.41

0.32 0.40 0.32 0.27 0.42 0.45 0.38 0.28 0.32 0.43$1 Portfolio = $40.33

Best = VEIEX72P - 1$ $40.33 $70.18 $38.80 $30.20 $90.04 $123.13 $80.67 $36.28 $60.90 $85.0072P1 - 1$ $40.33 $70.18 $38.80 $30.20 $90.04 $123.13 $80.67 $36.28 $60.90 $85.0072P2 - 1$ $40.33 $70.18 $38.80 $30.20 $90.04 $123.13 $80.67 $36.28 $60.90 $85.0072P3 - 1$ $40.33 $70.18 $38.80 $30.20 $90.04 $123.13 $80.67 $36.28 $60.90 $85.0072P4 - 1$ $40.33 $70.18 $38.80 $30.20 $90.04 $123.13 $80.67 $36.28 $60.90 $85.00

72P5 - 1$ $40.33 $70.18 $38.80 $30.20 $90.04 $123.13 $80.67 $36.28 $60.90 $85.00

YEAR MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG D10 REIT2011 VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX VGSIX

1972 16.9 19 19 21.5 9.1 7 4.4 3.7 -0.2 81973 -18.1 -3.6 -14.7 -21.6 -26.5 -26 -30.9 -39.1 -41.7 -15.51974 -27.2 -23.1 -26.5 -29.2 -25.2 -18.2 -19.9 -33.4 -28.9 -21.41975 38.7 57.2 37.2 34.2 57.4 54.5 52.8 63.2 72.4 19.31976 26.7 44 23.9 17.8 40.4 53.6 57.4 43.5 55.7 47.61977 -4.2 1.4 -7.8 -9.7 4 21.8 25.4 20.3 23.2 22.41978 7.5 3.3 5.9 6.9 10.9 21.8 23.5 18.6 28.4 10.31979 23 20.5 18 23.9 32.5 35.4 43.1 50.8 42.2 35.91980 32.7 24.4 31.9 39.6 32.5 25.4 38.6 52.3 30.5 24.41981 -3.7 1.3 -5.2 -11.3 2.4 14.9 2 -9.2 7.8 61982 20.8 20 20.9 20.5 23.3 28.5 24.9 21 28 21.61983 22 28.3 21.3 16 23.8 38.6 29.1 20.1 37.3 30.61984 4.5 10.1 6.21 -1 1.4 2.3 -7.3 -15.8 -19.5 20.91985 32.2 31.5 31.23 32.9 32 31 31.1 31 25.7 19.11986 16.1 20 18.06 15.4 18.2 7.4 5.7 3.6 0.3 19.21987 1.7 0.5 4.71 5.3 0.2 -7.1 -8.8 -10.5 -14.9 -3.61988 18 23.2 16.22 11.3 19.8 29.5 24.9 20.4 20.8 13.51989 28.9 25.2 31.36 35.9 26.3 12.4 16.2 20.2 5.5 8.81990 -6 -8.1 -3.32 -0.3 -11.5 -21.8 -19.5 -17.4 -31.3 -15.41991 34.7 24.6 30.22 41.2 41.5 41.7 46.1 51.2 48.3 35.71992 9.8 13.8 7.42 5 16.4 29.1 18.2 7.8 33.6 14.61993 10.62 18.35 9.89 1.53 14.3 23.8 18.7 13.4 25.4 19.71994 -0.17 -0.73 1.18 2.89 -2.1 -1.5 -0.51 -2.4 -2.9 3.21995 35.79 36.94 37.45 38.06 34.4 25.8 28.74 31 30.1 15.31996 20.96 21.86 22.88 23.74 19 21.4 18.12 11.3 16.8 35.31997 30.99 29.77 33.19 36.34 29 31.8 24.59 12.9 21.5 18.77

Correlation w/ US Mkt

Correlation w/ Intl Mkt

Sharpe Ratio

Page 106: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1998 23.26 14.64 28.62 42.21 10.1 -6.5 -2.61 1.2 -1.81 -16.321999 23.81 12.57 21.07 28.76 15.32 3.35 23.13 19.8 31.49 -4.042000 -10.57 6.08 -9.06 -22.21 18.1 21.88 -2.67 1.59 0.67 26.352001 -10.97 -11.88 -12.02 -12.93 -0.5 13.7 3.1 -0.78 23.98 12.352002 -20.96 -20.91 -22.15 -23.68 -14.61 -14.2 -20.02 -15.41 4.9 3.752003 31.35 32.25 28.5 25.92 34.14 37.19 45.63 42.88 79.43 35.652004 12.52 15.29 10.74 7.2 20.35 23.55 19.9 16.06 20.12 30.762005 5.98 7.09 4.77 5.09 13.93 6.07 7.36 8.64 4.08 11.892006 15.51 22.15 15.64 9.01 13.6 19.24 15.64 11.94 11.48 35.072007 5.49 0.09 5.39 12.56 6.02 -7.07 1.16 9.63 -5.4 -16.462008 -37.04 -35.97 -37.02 -38.32 -41.82 -32.05 -36.07 -40 -39.49 -37.052009 28.70 19.58 26.49 36.29 40.22 30.34 36.12 41.85 25.95 29.582010 17.09 14.28 14.91 16.96 25.46 24.82 27.72 30.69 24.86 28.32011 0.96 1 1.97 1.71 -2.11 -4.16 -2.8 -1.58 -7.86 8.472012201320142015

Correlations between different assetsVTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX VGSIX

VTSMX 1.00VIVAX 0.93 1.00VFINX 0.99 0.92 1.00VIGRX 0.96 0.81 0.97 1.00VIMSX 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.82 1.00VISVX 0.76 0.83 0.70 0.59 0.91 1.00NAESX 0.85 0.84 0.79 0.73 0.93 0.94 1.00VISGX 0.86 0.81 0.80 0.77 0.94 0.87 0.96 1.00BRSIX 0.73 0.74 0.66 0.59 0.84 0.90 0.93 0.89 1.00VGSIX 0.62 0.70 0.57 0.45 0.77 0.86 0.79 0.73 0.74 1.00VDMIX 0.66 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.59 0.46 0.53 0.54 0.45 0.41VEIEX 0.57 0.49 0.53 0.51 0.54 0.45 0.55 0.56 0.49 0.40VGTSX 0.66 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.60 0.47 0.56 0.56 0.47 0.42VPACX 0.44 0.41 0.43 0.40 0.36 0.26 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.25VEURX 0.76 0.72 0.76 0.72 0.67 0.53 0.59 0.61 0.50 0.44VTRIX 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.53 0.56 0.46 0.52 0.52 0.45 0.41PCRIX 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.11 -0.01 0.04 0.11 0.02 0.12VUSTX 0.05 0.11 0.08 0.02 0.06 0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 0.00VFITX 0.06 0.11 0.09 0.04 0.08 0.07 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.01VBMFX 0.29 0.32 0.30 0.24 0.31 0.29 0.19 0.18 0.14 0.21VUSXX 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.00 -0.08 -0.03VIPSX 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.29 0.26 0.23VWELX 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.84 0.92 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.70 0.71VWINX 0.71 0.76 0.72 0.61 0.74 0.69 0.60 0.59 0.51 0.63VWNDX 0.85 0.92 0.82 0.70 0.93 0.92 0.89 0.83 0.82 0.81VFISX 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01GLD -0.22 -0.26 -0.24 -0.17 -0.23 -0.24 -0.13 -0.08 -0.18 -0.11VFSVX 0.53 0.48 0.51 0.48 0.46 0.36 0.48 0.49 0.42 0.32

Page 107: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

YearEnd 0.96 1.00 1.97 1.71 -2.11 -4.16 -2.80 -1.58 -7.86 8.47

MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG D10 REITVTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX VGSIX

1972-1975 -1.03% 8.29% 0.40% -2.68% -1.64% -0.21% -3.29% -9.19% -8.71% -4.02%

1976-1980 16.10% 17.48% 13.41% 14.23% 22.97% 30.77% 36.73% 35.98% 34.62% 27.23%

1981-1985 14.20% 17.45% 14.15% 10.04% 15.66% 22.08% 14.59% 7.55% 13.14% 19.12%

1986-1990 10.83% 11.09% 12.78% 12.63% 9.42% 2.34% 2.17% 1.85% -6.29% 3.50%

1991-1995 17.14% 17.78% 16.41% 16.31% 19.63% 22.64% 21.18% 18.50% 24.87% 16.99%

1996-2000 16.68% 16.70% 18.31% 19.17% 17.94% 13.30% 11.43% 8.93% 12.57% 10.18%

2001-2005 1.97% 2.62% 0.42% -1.17% 9.34% 11.89% 9.10% 8.62% 23.88% 18.26%

2006-2010 2.94% 1.36% 2.21% 3.82% 4.27% 4.14% 5.39% 6.42% 0.07% 3.38%

1972-1979 5.44% 12.01% 4.71% 2.86% 8.98% 14.87% 14.83% 9.59% 11.38% 10.84%

1980-1989 16.45% 17.73% 17.04% 15.14% 17.13% 17.18% 14.25% 11.26% 9.79% 15.40%

1990-1999 17.47% 15.55% 18.08% 20.66% 15.38% 12.74% 13.99% 11.26% 14.04% 9.05%

2000-2009 -0.27% 1.23% -1.03% -2.75% 6.13% 7.69% 4.36% 4.84% 8.97% 10.40%

1972-2011 9.68% 11.21% 9.58% 8.89% 11.91% 12.79% 11.60% 9.39% 10.82% 11.75%

Page 108: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

EAFED EM Pacific Europe COMM LTGB 5 Yr T ITB TBILL S-TIPSVDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX

0.27 0.42 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.46 0 0.26 0.26 0.2 0.24 0.22001 1995 1997 1991 1991 1991 2003 1987 1992 1987 1984 2001

Minimum for the Year Maximum for the year

35.93 49.57 37.98 106.99 15.29 36.32 38.69 5.43 4.93 5.49 3.55 -2.59-15.13 -14.16 -14.98 -21.16 -7.95 -14.97 68.40 -1.36 4.33 3.19 6.64 -3.99-23.41 -25.61 -23.74 -21.15 -23.01 -22.88 4.10 4.13 5.43 6.79 7.74 4.9935.04 43.60 36.32 26.38 43.51 38.35 5.11 8.92 7.52 8.08 5.55 16.17

2.22 6.85 2.92 21.31 -6.65 2.86 -5.55 16.50 12.61 11.48 4.85 -0.3017.78 49.97 22.62 13.38 23.57 29.39 3.05 -0.96 1.14 2.79 4.85 7.7832.24 52.96 35.35 48.37 23.97 42.02 26.37 -1.46 3.23 2.00 6.94 9.68

4.52 2.17 4.17 -3.74 14.39 5.50 34.26 -1.46 3.83 6.39 10.14 9.7822.27 26.27 22.87 36.01 14.19 18.21 6.12 -4.25 3.63 6.39 11.03 15.17-1.27 4.16 -0.45 8.02 -10.64 8.49 -22.52 1.64 9.12 10.58 14.43 5.79-1.17 -1.51 -1.22 -6.51 5.42 -2.65 3.84 40.04 28.77 25.15 10.24 -7.7824.26 32.05 25.43 26.08 22.07 28.76 12.24 0.44 7.12 7.98 8.54 16.87

7.61 9.84 7.94 13.17 1.03 8.51 -3.51 15.20 13.70 14.07 9.54 15.5756.28 60.23 56.87 39.01 79.32 54.40 13.03 30.66 19.99 17.76 7.37 8.6869.44 62.02 68.33 93.30 44.11 64.61 -6.19 24.18 14.80 12.87 6.00 21.9624.56 37.12 26.45 39.47 3.82 34.40 17.91 -3.18 2.63 0.94 6.12 8.1828.25 39.81 29.99 34.83 16.09 37.97 18.50 9.15 5.82 7.35 7.18 18.6610.50 64.31 18.58 2.40 28.75 17.62 27.72 17.93 13.01 13.64 8.87 5.89

-23.41 -10.97 -21.54 -34.47 -3.66 -21.99 25.13 5.78 9.42 8.65 7.94 5.9912.20 59.23 19.26 10.35 12.10 10.29 3.77 17.43 15.00 15.25 5.73 15.67

-12.04 10.93 -8.59 -18.17 -3.32 -10.80 6.59 7.40 7.50 7.14 3.53 7.2932.54 74.07 38.78 35.46 29.13 40.40 6.42 16.79 11.43 9.68 2.86 15.47

7.81 -7.69 5.48 13.04 1.88 11.40 5.89 -7.03 -4.33 -2.66 3.81 2.9911.30 0.14 9.62 2.75 22.28 11.70 24.29 30.11 20.44 18.18 5.49 0.60

6.11 15.83 7.50 -7.82 21.26 9.20 18.35 -1.25 1.92 3.58 5.09 3.891.83 -16.82 -1.06 -25.67 24.23 -4.58 -1.00 13.90 8.96 9.44 5.12 7.78

19.98 -18.12 15.60 2.41 28.86 19.46 -25.30 13.05 10.61 8.58 5.00 2.5926.96 61.57 29.92 57.05 16.62 21.81 19.66 -8.66 -3.52 -0.76 4.55 7.68

-14.23 -27.56 -15.61 -25.74 -8.18 -7.48 35.83 19.72 14.03 11.39 5.80 4.59-22.25 -2.88 -20.15 -26.34 -20.30 -14.02 -15.25 4.31 7.55 8.43 3.99 7.40-15.70 -7.43 -15.08 -9.32 -17.95 -13.35 39.93 16.67 14.15 8.26 1.51 16.6138.61 57.65 40.34 38.42 38.70 41.90 29.82 2.68 2.37 3.97 0.82 8.0020.25 26.12 20.84 18.83 20.86 19.77 16.36 7.12 3.40 4.24 1.00 8.2713.34 32.05 15.57 22.59 9.26 17.96 20.50 6.61 2.32 2.40 2.77 2.5926.18 29.39 26.64 11.99 33.42 27.37 -3.04 1.74 3.14 4.27 4.55 0.4310.99 38.90 15.52 4.78 13.82 12.66 23.80 9.24 9.98 6.92 4.65 11.59

-41.62 -52.81 -44.10 -34.36 -44.73 -41.74 -43.33 22.52 13.32 5.05 1.97 -2.8528.17 75.98 36.73 21.18 31.91 33.77 39.92 -12.05 -1.69 5.93 0.53 10.80

8.54 18.86 11.12 15.77 4.91 7.31 24.13 8.93 7.35 6.42 0.01 6.17-12.53 -19.18 -14.56 -14.00 -11.60 -14.58 29.28 9.80 7.56 0.02 13.24

Total Intl

Intl Value

S2
Returns are after deducting an ER of 0.74%
Page 109: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX

11.32 20.92 12.69 12.87 12.17 13.58 12.67 9.15 8.12 7.87 5.41 7.6822.66 32.40 23.46 31.10 22.26 23.05 20.69 11.75 6.66 5.37 3.20 6.69

8.96 16.28 10.14 8.95 9.91 11.15 10.66 8.55 7.92 7.74 5.36 7.48513.70 1049.45 550.47 967.27 495.36 531.46 428.07 138.18 44.39 28.88 10.23 44.74

0.66 0.57 0.66 0.44 0.76 0.60 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.29 0.08 0.20

1.00 0.82 0.99 0.86 0.88 0.98 0.11 -0.08 -0.12 0.01 0.01 0.40

0.26 0.48 0.31 0.24 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.32 0.41 0.46 0.00 0.34

$30.96 $417.23 $47.70 $30.89 $43.80 $68.67 $51.92 $26.58 $21.11 $19.76 $8.08 $17.90

$30.96 $417.23 $47.70 $30.89 $43.80 $68.67 $51.92 $26.58 $21.11 $19.76 $8.08 $17.90

$30.96 $417.23 $47.70 $30.89 $43.80 $68.67 $51.92 $26.58 $21.11 $19.76 $8.08 $17.90

$30.96 $417.23 $47.70 $30.89 $43.80 $68.67 $51.92 $26.58 $21.11 $19.76 $8.08 $17.90

$30.96 $417.23 $47.70 $30.89 $43.80 $68.67 $51.92 $26.58 $21.11 $19.76 $8.08 $17.90

$30.96 $417.23 $47.70 $30.89 $43.80 $68.67 $51.92 $26.58 $21.11 $19.76 $8.08 $17.90

EAFED EM Pacific Europe COMM LTGB 5 Yr T ITB TBILL S-TIPSVDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX

36.3 50.2 38.39 107.55 15.6 36.95 38.69 5.7 5.2 5.7 3.8 -2.4-14.9 -13.8 -14.74 -20.95 -7.7 -14.58 68.4 -1.1 4.6 3.4 6.9 -3.8-23.2 -25.3 -23.52 -20.94 -22.8 -22.53 4.1 4.4 5.7 7 8 5.235.4 44.2 36.72 26.72 43.9 38.99 5.11 9.2 7.8 8.3 5.8 16.4

2.5 7.3 3.22 21.64 -6.4 3.33 -5.55 16.8 12.9 11.7 5.1 -0.118.1 50.6 22.98 13.69 23.9 29.99 3.05 -0.7 1.4 3 5.1 832.6 53.6 35.75 48.77 24.3 42.67 26.37 -1.2 3.5 2.2 7.2 9.9

4.8 2.6 4.47 -3.48 14.7 5.99 34.26 -1.2 4.1 6.6 10.4 1022.6 26.8 23.23 36.38 14.5 18.75 6.12 -4 3.9 6.6 11.3 15.4

-1 4.6 -0.16 8.31 -10.4 8.99 -22.52 1.9 9.4 10.8 14.7 6-0.9 -1.1 -0.93 -6.26 5.7 -2.2 3.84 40.4 29.1 25.4 10.5 -7.624.6 32.6 25.80 26.42 22.4 29.35 12.24 0.7 7.4 8.2 8.8 17.1

7.9 10.3 8.26 13.48 1.3 9.01 -3.51 15.5 14 14.3 9.8 15.856.7 60.9 57.33 39.39 79.8 55.11 13.03 31 20.3 18 7.37 8.969.9 62.7 68.82 93.82 44.5 65.37 -6.19 24.5 15.1 13.1 6 22.224.9 37.7 26.82 39.85 4.1 35.02 17.91 -2.93 2.9 1.14 6.12 8.428.6 40.4 30.37 35.19 16.4 38.6 18.5 9.15 6.1 7.35 7.18 18.910.8 65 18.93 2.68 29.1 18.16 27.72 17.93 13.3 13.64 8.87 6.1

-23.2 -10.6 -21.31 -34.29 -3.4 -21.63 25.13 5.78 9.7 8.65 7.94 6.212.5 59.9 19.61 10.65 12.4 10.8 3.77 17.43 15.3 15.25 5.73 15.9

-11.8 11.4 -8.32 -18.17 -3.32 -10.8 6.58779 7.4 7.78 7.14 3.53 7.532.9 74.8 39.18 35.46 29.13 40.4 6.42077 16.79 11.43 9.68 2.86 15.7

8.1 -7.3 5.79 13.04 1.88 11.4 5.89177 -7.03 -4.33 -2.66 3.81 3.211.6 0.56 9.94 2.75 22.28 11.7 24.2885 30.11 20.44 18.18 5.49 0.8

6.4 15.83 7.81 -7.82 21.26 9.2 18.3467 -1.25 1.92 3.58 5.09 4.12.1 -16.82 -0.77 -25.67 24.23 -4.58 -1.00293 13.9 8.96 9.44 5.12 8

Total Intl

Intl Value

Page 110: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

20.3 -18.12 15.60 2.41 28.86 19.46 -25.3031 13.05 10.61 8.58 5 2.827.3 61.57 29.92 57.05 16.62 21.81 19.6583 -8.66 -3.52 -0.76 4.55 7.9-14 -27.56 -15.61 -25.74 -8.18 -7.48 35.8308 19.72 14.03 11.39 5.8 4.8

-22.04 -2.88 -20.15 -26.34 -20.3 -14.02 -15.2486 4.31 7.55 8.43 3.99 7.61-15.7 -7.43 -15.08 -9.32 -17.95 -13.35 39.9297 16.67 14.15 8.26 1.51 16.6138.61 57.65 40.34 38.42 38.7 41.9 29.82 2.68 2.37 3.97 0.82 820.25 26.12 20.84 18.83 20.86 19.77 16.36 7.12 3.4 4.24 1 8.2713.34 32.05 15.57 22.59 9.26 17.96 20.5 6.61 2.32 2.4 2.77 2.5926.18 29.39 26.64 11.99 33.42 27.37 -3.04 1.74 3.14 4.27 4.55 0.4310.99 38.9 15.52 4.78 13.82 12.66 23.8 9.24 9.98 6.92 4.65 11.59

-41.62 -52.81 -44.1 -34.36 -44.73 -41.74 -43.33 22.52 13.32 5.05 1.97 -2.8528.17 75.98 36.73 21.18 31.91 33.77 39.92 -12.05 -1.69 5.93 0.53 10.8

8.54 18.86 11.12 15.77 4.91 7.31 24.13 8.93 7.35 6.42 0.01 6.17-12.53 -19.18 -14.56 -14 -11.6 -14.58 -7.56 29.28 9.8 7.56 0.02 13.24

VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX

1.000.82 1.000.99 0.88 1.000.86 0.74 0.86 1.000.88 0.72 0.87 0.56 1.000.98 0.84 0.98 0.84 0.85 1.000.11 0.25 0.14 0.12 0.16 0.12 1.00

-0.08 -0.22 -0.11 -0.15 0.02 -0.14 -0.25 1.00-0.12 -0.21 -0.14 -0.20 -0.01 -0.17 -0.22 0.92 1.000.01 -0.05 0.00 -0.13 0.15 -0.04 -0.17 0.81 0.93 1.000.01 -0.06 0.00 -0.02 0.03 0.03 -0.15 0.00 0.25 0.37 1.000.40 0.43 0.42 0.29 0.29 0.41 0.00 -0.07 -0.08 -0.01 0.02 1.000.60 0.48 0.59 0.35 0.70 0.55 0.06 0.26 0.30 0.51 0.14 0.220.40 0.30 0.40 0.16 0.54 0.36 -0.03 0.55 0.61 0.78 0.19 0.190.59 0.52 0.60 0.39 0.62 0.58 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.32 0.15 0.28

-0.08 -0.16 -0.09 -0.12 -0.04 -0.10 -0.29 0.48 0.73 0.78 0.77 0.03-0.04 -0.02 -0.04 0.06 -0.08 -0.05 0.46 -0.22 -0.21 -0.24 -0.04 -0.180.88 0.81 0.89 0.84 0.74 0.88 0.19 -0.26 -0.31 -0.20 -0.06 0.27

Page 111: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

-12.53 -19.18 -14.56 -14.00 -11.60 -14.58 29.28 9.80 7.56 0.02 13.24

EAFED EM Pacific Europe COMM LTGB 5 Yr T ITB TBILL S-TIPSVDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX VUSXX VIPSX

4.52% 8.22% 5.09% 12.92% 4.06% 5.45% 26.44% 4.21% 5.54% 5.87% 5.86% 3.34%

15.27% 25.89% 16.93% 21.72% 13.31% 18.71% 11.87% 1.42% 4.81% 5.76% 7.53% 8.31%

15.32% 18.98% 15.87% 14.91% 15.81% 17.90% -0.30% 16.56% 15.48% 14.96% 10.00% 7.45%

18.03% 35.36% 20.82% 19.52% 16.59% 22.87% 15.94% 10.36% 9.04% 8.59% 7.22% 11.93%

9.43% 23.24% 11.84% 7.28% 11.76% 11.44% 9.15% 12.25% 9.68% 9.27% 4.28% 8.22%

7.14% -1.58% 6.16% -3.93% 15.76% 7.00% 7.30% 6.81% 6.21% 6.35% 5.11% 5.29%

4.37% 18.74% 5.85% 6.14% 3.67% 8.35% 16.64% 7.37% 5.86% 5.43% 2.01% 8.48%

2.61% 12.15% 4.44% 1.56% 3.04% 3.71% 3.39% 5.46% 6.29% 5.71% 2.32% 5.07%

8.95% 16.68% 10.17% 15.62% 8.48% 11.94% 19.72% 3.55% 5.33% 5.74% 6.27% 4.99%

22.25% 31.42% 23.75% 26.07% 18.19% 25.47% 5.75% 12.29% 11.61% 11.49% 8.90% 10.58%

7.06% 12.42% 8.17% 0.26% 14.29% 7.35% 7.34% 8.15% 7.49% 7.53% 4.90% 6.89%

1.08% 9.82% 2.29% -0.69% 1.99% 4.45% 10.81% 7.42% 6.72% 6.06% 2.74% 6.60%

8.96% 16.28% 10.14% 8.95% 9.91% 11.15% 10.66% 8.55% 7.92% 7.74% 5.36% 7.48%

Total Intl

Intl Value

Page 112: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Wellington Wellesley Windsor ST Trsry GOLDVWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX

0.3 0.25 0.36 0.26 0.4 0.5 - - -1972 1972 1972 1992 2004 1997 - - -

10.66 9.48 9.80 3.63 48.66 63.43-11.83 -3.49 -25.00 5.82 71.24 -14.12-17.73 -6.43 -16.80 8.82 72.02 -28.9825.18 17.46 54.50 7.62 -27.62 49.1123.36 23.28 46.40 8.62 -4.48 10.91-4.38 4.27 1.00 3.43 22.15 73.215.32 3.61 8.80 5.23 36.47 64.71

13.54 6.20 22.60 10.11 125.65 -1.2722.58 11.88 22.60 13.80 14.73 34.79

2.90 8.67 16.80 18.59 -32.87 -0.4024.55 23.30 21.70 19.19 14.49 -0.4623.57 18.60 30.10 8.32 -16.64 35.4410.70 16.64 19.47 12.51 -19.52 11.0628.53 27.41 28.03 12.91 5.26 66.6718.40 18.34 20.27 11.61 20.82 58.75

2.28 -1.92 1.23 5.73 21.72 39.9716.11 13.61 28.70 5.63 -15.59 25.3121.60 20.93 15.02 8.42 -3.23 30.12-2.81 3.76 -15.50 8.62 -1.86 -18.3523.65 21.57 28.55 10.41 -10.43 5.30

7.93 8.67 16.50 6.47 -6.12 -20.9813.52 14.65 19.37 6.41 17.21 33.72-0.49 -4.44 -0.15 -0.58 -2.56 15.3332.92 28.91 30.15 12.11 0.58 2.1516.19 9.42 26.36 4.39 -4.97 3.8823.23 20.19 21.97 6.39 -21.72 -14.5612.06 11.84 0.81 7.36 -1.22 25.98

4.41 -4.14 11.57 1.85 0.45 90.2910.40 16.17 15.89 8.83 -5.82 -2.68

4.19 7.39 5.72 7.80 0.44 -22.52-6.90 4.64 -22.25 8.02 24.96 -13.8820.75 9.66 37.01 2.38 19.12 57.3711.17 7.57 13.38 1.03 4.48 31.77

6.82 3.48 4.99 1.77 17.76 20.4914.97 11.28 19.35 3.77 21.95 30.34

8.34 5.61 -3.30 7.89 30.57 5.15-22.30 -9.84 -41.10 6.68 4.96 -46.6222.20 16.02 34.69 1.44 23.99 47.1210.94 10.65 14.82 2.64 29.27 24.97

3.85 9.63 -4.00 2.26 9.57 -4.00

VG Intl Small

Page 113: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

VWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX

10.76 10.36 13.00 7.20 12.10 19.2112.49 9.28 19.31 4.45 29.44 31.4810.03 9.98 11.19 7.11 8.90 15.01

155.89 86.10 372.87 19.78 866.46 991.04 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.92 0.71 0.85 0.08 -0.22 0.53

0.60 0.40 0.59 -0.08 -0.04 0.88

0.43 0.53 0.39 0.40 0.23 0.44

$45.69 $44.89 $69.63 $15.60 $30.30 $268.94

$45.69 $44.89 $69.63 $15.60 $30.30 $268.94

$45.69 $44.89 $69.63 $15.60 $30.30 $268.94

$45.69 $44.89 $69.63 $15.60 $30.30 $268.94

$45.69 $44.89 $69.63 $15.60 $30.30 $268.94

$45.69 $44.89 $69.63 $15.60 $30.30 $268.94

Wellington Wellesley Windsor ST Trsry GOLDVWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX

10.99 9.75 10.2 3.9 49.25 64.25-11.83 -3.49 -25 6.1 71.92 -13.69-17.73 -6.43 -16.8 9.1 72.71 -28.6325.18 17.46 54.5 7.9 -27.33 49.8623.36 23.28 46.4 8.9 -4.10 11.46-4.38 4.27 1 3.7 22.64 74.085.32 3.61 8.8 5.5 37.01 65.53

13.54 6.2 22.6 10.4 126.55 -0.7822.58 11.88 22.6 14.1 15.19 35.46

2.9 8.67 16.8 18.9 -32.60 0.1024.55 23.3 21.7 19.5 14.94 0.0423.57 18.6 30.1 8.6 -16.31 36.12

10.7 16.64 19.47 12.8 -19.19 11.6228.53 27.41 28.03 13.2 5.68 67.50

18.4 18.34 20.27 11.9 21.31 59.542.28 -1.92 1.23 6 22.21 40.67

16.11 13.61 28.7 5.9 -15.26 25.9421.6 20.93 15.02 8.7 -2.84 30.77

-2.81 3.76 -15.5 8.9 -1.47 -17.9423.65 21.57 28.55 10.7 -10.07 5.83

7.93 8.67 16.5 6.75 -5.75 -20.5813.52 14.65 19.37 6.41 17.68 34.39-0.49 -4.44 -0.15 -0.58 -2.17 15.9132.92 28.91 30.15 12.11 0.98 2.6616.19 9.42 26.36 4.39 -4.59 4.4023.23 20.19 21.97 6.39 -21.41 -14.13

VG Intl Small

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12.06 11.84 0.81 7.36 -0.83 25.984.41 -4.14 11.57 1.85 0.85 90.2910.4 16.17 15.89 8.83 -5.44 -2.684.19 7.39 5.72 7.8 0.84 -22.52-6.9 4.64 -22.25 8.02 25.46 -13.88

20.75 9.66 37.01 2.38 19.60 57.3711.17 7.57 13.38 1.03 4.90 31.77

6.82 3.48 4.99 1.77 17.76 20.4914.97 11.28 19.35 3.77 21.95 30.34

8.34 5.61 -3.3 7.89 30.57 5.15-22.3 -9.84 -41.1 6.68 4.96 -46.6222.2 16.02 34.69 1.44 23.99 47.12

10.94 10.65 14.82 2.64 29.27 24.973.85 9.63 -4 2.26 9.57 -4

VWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX

1.000.89 1.000.89 0.75 1.000.26 0.45 0.16 1.00

-0.31 -0.38 -0.32 -0.13 1.000.39 0.18 0.45 -0.25 -0.02 1.00

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3.85 9.63 -4.00 2.26 9.57 -4.00

Wellington Wellesley Windsor ST Trsry GOLD 0 0 0VWELX VWINX VWNDX VFISX GLD VFSVX 0 0 0

0.12% 3.81% 1.43% 6.46% 33.43% 10.42%

11.57% 9.61% 19.31% 8.18% 32.75% 33.31%

17.64% 18.75% 23.12% 14.23% -11.50% 19.98%

10.69% 10.60% 8.78% 7.98% 3.35% 24.22%

14.91% 13.29% 18.36% 6.87% -0.69% 5.56%

13.09% 10.37% 14.97% 5.74% -7.01% 15.67%

6.82% 6.52% 6.04% 4.16% 12.96% 10.76%

5.58% 6.35% 1.01% 4.46% 21.78% 6.11%

4.46% 6.40% 9.64% 6.63% 35.54% 21.16%

16.79% 15.47% 20.11% 11.58% -2.86% 28.36%

12.55% 10.56% 13.03% 6.28% -3.51% 8.58%

6.15% 6.96% 3.59% 4.92% 13.63% 5.73%

10.03% 9.98% 11.19% 7.11% 8.90% 15.01%

VG Intl Small

Page 116: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

InflationCPI-U

- - - - - -- - - - - -

3.418.71

12.346.944.866.709.02

13.2912.52

8.923.833.793.953.801.104.434.424.656.113.062.902.752.672.543.321.701.612.683.391.552.381.883.263.422.544.080.092.721.502.96

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CPI-U4.393.154.35

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.90

-0.08

-0.09

-0.32

$5.49

$5.49

$5.49

$5.49

$5.49

$5.49

InflationCPI-U

3.418.71

12.346.944.866.709.02

13.2912.52

8.923.833.793.953.801.104.434.424.656.113.062.902.752.672.543.321.70

Page 118: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

1.612.683.391.552.381.883.263.422.544.080.092.72

1.52.96

Page 119: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0 0 0 0 0 0 Inflation0 0 0 0 0 0 CPI-U

7.80%

9.23%

4.84%

4.13%

2.79%

2.54%

2.49%

#VALUE!

8.11%

5.10%

2.93%

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

Page 120: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

YEAR MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG D102011 VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX

ER 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.67YOI 1993 1993 1977 1992 1999 1999 1992 1999 1999

Minimum for the Year

1985 31.95 31.22 31.23 32.61 31.71 30.70 30.80 30.70 24.861986 15.88 19.75 18.06 15.15 17.94 7.15 5.46 3.36 -0.371987 1.51 0.29 4.71 5.07 -0.02 -7.31 -9.01 -10.71 -15.471988 17.78 22.94 16.22 11.06 19.54 29.20 24.61 20.12 20.001989 28.66 24.94 31.36 35.60 26.02 12.14 15.93 19.92 4.801990 -6.18 -8.29 -3.32 -0.52 -11.69 -21.98 -19.68 -17.59 -31.761991 34.44 24.34 30.22 40.89 41.19 41.37 45.76 50.85 47.311992 9.59 13.56 7.42 4.77 16.14 28.80 17.93 7.55 32.711993 10.41 18.10 9.89 1.53 14.05 23.52 18.70 13.14 24.571994 -0.17 -0.73 1.18 2.89 -2.31 -1.73 -0.51 -2.62 -3.551995 35.79 36.94 37.45 38.06 34.10 25.51 28.74 30.70 29.231996 20.96 21.86 22.88 23.74 18.74 21.12 18.12 11.04 16.021997 30.99 29.77 33.19 36.34 28.72 31.50 24.59 12.64 20.691998 23.26 14.64 28.62 42.21 9.86 -6.71 -2.61 0.97 -2.461999 23.81 12.57 21.07 28.76 15.07 3.11 23.13 19.53 30.612000 -10.57 6.08 -9.06 -22.21 18.10 21.88 -2.67 1.59 0.672001 -10.97 -11.88 -12.02 -12.93 -0.50 13.70 3.10 -0.78 23.982002 -20.96 -20.91 -22.15 -23.68 -14.61 -14.20 -20.02 -15.41 4.902003 31.35 32.25 28.50 25.92 34.14 37.19 45.63 42.88 79.432004 12.52 15.29 10.74 7.20 20.35 23.55 19.90 16.06 20.122005 5.98 7.09 4.77 5.09 13.93 6.07 7.36 8.64 4.082006 15.51 22.15 15.64 9.01 13.60 19.24 15.64 11.94 11.482007 5.49 0.09 5.39 12.56 6.02 -7.07 1.16 9.63 -5.402008 -37.04 -35.97 -37.02 -38.32 -41.82 -32.05 -36.07 -40.00 -39.492009 28.70 19.58 26.49 36.29 40.22 30.34 36.12 41.85 25.952010 17.09 14.28 14.91 16.96 25.46 24.82 27.72 30.69 24.862011 0.96 1.00 1.97 1.71 -2.11 -4.16 -2.80 -1.58 -7.862012201320142015

VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIXAverage 11.73 11.52 11.79 12.44 13.77 12.43 11.74 10.93 12.59StDEV 18.10 17.01 18.00 21.00 18.38 19.06 19.83 19.93 23.87CAGR 10.13 10.09 10.20 10.33 12.09 10.72 9.89 9.07 10.05Variance 327.55 289.18 324.06 441.00 337.73 363.13 393.40 397.15 570.01

1.00 0.95 0.99 0.96 0.90 0.72 0.88 0.87 0.67

0.67 0.69 0.67 0.59 0.61 0.45 0.58 0.57 0.42

Correlation w/ US Mkt

Correlation w/ Intl Mkt

Page 121: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.42 0.43 0.42 0.39 0.52 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.35$1 Portfolio = $13.54

Best = VEIEX85P - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.27

85P1 - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.2785P2 - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.2785P3 - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.2785P4 - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.2785P5 - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.27

85Lazy - 1$ $13.54 $13.40 $13.78 $14.22 $21.78 $15.65 $12.77 $10.42 $13.27

YEAR MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG D102011 VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX

1985 32.2 31.5 31.23 32.9 32 31 31.1 31 25.71986 16.1 20 18.06 15.4 18.2 7.4 5.7 3.6 0.31987 1.7 0.5 4.71 5.3 0.2 -7.1 -8.8 -10.5 -14.91988 18 23.2 16.22 11.3 19.8 29.5 24.9 20.4 20.81989 28.9 25.2 31.36 35.9 26.3 12.4 16.2 20.2 5.51990 -6 -8.1 -3.32 -0.3 -11.5 -21.8 -19.5 -17.4 -31.31991 34.7 24.6 30.22 41.2 41.5 41.7 46.1 51.2 48.31992 9.8 13.8 7.42 5 16.4 29.1 18.2 7.8 33.61993 10.62 18.35 9.89 1.53 14.3 23.8 18.7 13.4 25.41994 -0.17 -0.73 1.18 2.89 -2.1 -1.5 -0.51 -2.4 -2.91995 35.79 36.94 37.45 38.06 34.4 25.8 28.74 31 30.11996 20.96 21.86 22.88 23.74 19 21.4 18.12 11.3 16.81997 30.99 29.77 33.19 36.34 29 31.8 24.59 12.9 21.51998 23.26 14.64 28.62 42.21 10.1 -6.5 -2.61 1.2 -1.811999 23.81 12.57 21.07 28.76 15.32 3.35 23.13 19.8 31.492000 -10.57 6.08 -9.06 -22.21 18.1 21.88 -2.67 1.59 0.672001 -10.97 -11.88 -12.02 -12.93 -0.5 13.7 3.1 -0.78 23.982002 -20.96 -20.91 -22.15 -23.68 -14.61 -14.2 -20.02 -15.41 4.92003 31.35 32.25 28.5 25.92 34.14 37.19 45.63 42.88 79.432004 12.52 15.29 10.74 7.2 20.35 23.55 19.9 16.06 20.122005 5.98 7.09 4.77 5.09 13.93 6.07 7.36 8.64 4.082006 15.51 22.15 15.64 9.01 13.6 19.24 15.64 11.94 11.482007 5.49 0.09 5.39 12.56 6.02 -7.07 1.16 9.63 -5.42008 -37.04 -35.97 -37.02 -38.32 -41.82 -32.05 -36.07 -40 -39.492009 28.70 19.58 26.49 36.29 40.22 30.34 36.12 41.85 25.952010 17.09 14.28 14.91 16.96 25.46 24.82 27.72 30.69 24.862011 0.96 1 1.97 1.71 -2.11 -4.16 -2.8 -1.58 -7.862012201320142015

Sharpe Ratio

Page 122: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

Correlations between different assetsVTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX

VTSMX 1.00VIVAX 0.95 1.00VFINX 0.99 0.94 1.00VIGRX 0.96 0.83 0.97 1.00VIMSX 0.90 0.92 0.87 0.80 1.00VISVX 0.72 0.82 0.67 0.54 0.89 1.00NAESX 0.88 0.87 0.82 0.75 0.93 0.92 1.00VISGX 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.76 0.94 0.86 0.97 1.00BRSIX 0.67 0.68 0.60 0.52 0.76 0.85 0.89 0.84 1.00VGSIX 0.55 0.68 0.50 0.35 0.76 0.87 0.76 0.71 0.72VDMIX 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.59 0.61 0.45 0.58 0.57 0.42VEIEX 0.61 0.57 0.57 0.53 0.62 0.49 0.66 0.68 0.52VGTSX 0.69 0.69 0.67 0.60 0.64 0.48 0.61 0.62 0.45VPACX 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.24 0.41 0.41 0.32VEURX 0.81 0.83 0.82 0.74 0.72 0.55 0.66 0.65 0.46VTRIX 0.63 0.66 0.62 0.53 0.60 0.45 0.56 0.56 0.41PCRIX 0.26 0.29 0.23 0.18 0.44 0.30 0.34 0.43 0.31VUSTX -0.04 0.06 -0.01 -0.07 -0.03 -0.01 -0.12 -0.08 -0.14VFITX -0.02 0.05 0.01 -0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.11 -0.05 -0.11VBMFX 0.31 0.36 0.33 0.28 0.37 0.32 0.23 0.29 0.14VUSXX 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.26 0.12 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.20VIPSX 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.22VWELX 0.91 0.95 0.90 0.81 0.93 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.65VWINX 0.68 0.76 0.69 0.59 0.76 0.69 0.61 0.64 0.45VGENX 0.49 0.58 0.47 0.35 0.65 0.54 0.55 0.58 0.43VGHCX 0.62 0.69 0.65 0.58 0.68 0.53 0.49 0.55 0.31VGPMX 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.34 0.22 0.33 0.39 0.36VWNDX 0.85 0.92 0.82 0.69 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.88 0.79VWNFX 0.85 0.92 0.85 0.74 0.90 0.82 0.80 0.78 0.63VWSTX 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.15 0.07 0.01 0.04 -0.10VWITX 0.39 0.47 0.40 0.31 0.46 0.42 0.33 0.36 0.23VWLTX 0.43 0.53 0.43 0.33 0.54 0.49 0.38 0.42 0.28VWEHX 0.79 0.81 0.75 0.67 0.85 0.83 0.85 0.84 0.76VFISX 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.02 -0.08 -0.03 -0.09VMGIX 0.90 0.77 0.87 0.88 0.79 0.56 0.82 0.83 0.65VMVIX 0.81 0.89 0.78 0.66 0.96 0.96 0.91 0.87 0.79VEXMX 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.87 0.91 0.79 0.96 0.94 0.81PIGLX 0.28 0.23 0.26 0.28 0.30 0.21 0.28 0.40 0.34VFSTX 0.58 0.57 0.59 0.56 0.66 0.52 0.50 0.57 0.35GLD -0.17 -0.19 -0.19 -0.17 -0.12 -0.23 -0.11 -0.01 -0.06VFSVX 0.59 0.55 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.33 0.53 0.54 0.42

Page 123: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

YearEnd 0.96 1 1.97 1.71 -2.11 -4.16 -2.8 -1.58 -7.86

MKT-TSM LCV 500 Idx LCG MCB SCV SCB SCG D10VTSMX VIVAX VFINX VIGRX VIMSX VISVX NAESX VISGX BRSIX

1985-1990 14.10% 14.21% 15.66% 15.74% 12.86% 6.60% 6.47% 6.17% -1.70%

1991-1995 17.14% 17.78% 16.41% 16.31% 19.63% 22.64% 21.18% 18.50% 24.87%

1996-2000 16.68% 16.70% 18.31% 19.17% 17.94% 13.30% 11.43% 8.93% 12.42%

2000-2005 1.97% 2.62% 0.42% -1.17% 9.34% 11.89% 9.10% 8.62% 23.88%

2006-2010 2.94% 1.36% 2.21% 3.82% 4.27% 4.14% 5.39% 6.42% 0.07%

1985-1989 18.65% 19.34% 19.89% 19.29% 18.53% 13.47% 12.64% 11.69% 5.75%

1990-1999 17.47% 15.55% 18.08% 20.66% 15.38% 12.74% 13.99% 11.26% 13.96%

2000-2009 -0.27% 1.23% -1.03% -2.75% 6.13% 7.69% 4.36% 4.84% 8.97%

1985-2011 10.13% 10.09% 10.20% 10.33% 12.09% 10.72% 9.89% 9.07% 10.05%

Page 124: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

REIT EAFED EM Total Intl Pacific Europe Intl Value COMM LTGB 5 Yr T ITBVGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX

0.21 0.27 0.42 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.46 0 0.26 0.26 0.21997 2001 1995 1997 1991 1991 1991 2003 1987 1992 1987

Minimum for the Year Maximum for the year

18.85 56.28 60.23 56.87 39.01 79.32 54.40 13.03 30.66 19.99 17.7618.95 69.44 62.02 68.33 93.30 44.11 64.61 -6.19 24.18 14.80 12.87-3.80 24.56 37.12 26.45 39.47 3.82 34.40 17.91 -3.18 2.63 0.9413.26 28.25 39.81 29.99 34.83 16.09 37.97 18.50 9.15 5.82 7.35

8.57 10.50 64.31 18.58 2.40 28.75 17.62 27.72 17.93 13.01 13.64-15.58 -23.41 -10.97 -21.54 -34.47 -3.66 -21.99 25.13 5.78 9.42 8.6535.42 12.20 59.23 19.26 10.35 12.10 10.29 3.77 17.43 15.00 15.2514.36 -12.04 10.93 -8.59 -18.17 -3.32 -10.80 6.59 7.40 7.50 7.1419.45 32.54 74.07 38.78 35.46 29.13 40.40 6.42 16.79 11.43 9.68

2.98 7.81 -7.69 5.48 13.04 1.88 11.40 5.89 -7.03 -4.33 -2.6615.06 11.30 0.14 9.62 2.75 22.28 11.70 24.29 30.11 20.44 18.1835.02 6.11 15.83 7.50 -7.82 21.26 9.20 18.35 -1.25 1.92 3.5818.52 1.83 -16.82 -1.06 -25.67 24.23 -4.58 -1.00 13.90 8.96 9.44

-16.32 19.98 -18.12 15.60 2.41 28.86 19.46 -25.30 13.05 10.61 8.58-4.04 26.96 61.57 29.92 57.05 16.62 21.81 19.66 -8.66 -3.52 -0.7626.35 -14.23 -27.56 -15.61 -25.74 -8.18 -7.48 35.83 19.72 14.03 11.3912.35 -22.25 -2.88 -20.15 -26.34 -20.30 -14.02 -15.25 4.31 7.55 8.43

3.75 -15.70 -7.43 -15.08 -9.32 -17.95 -13.35 39.93 16.67 14.15 8.2635.65 38.61 57.65 40.34 38.42 38.70 41.90 29.82 2.68 2.37 3.9730.76 20.25 26.12 20.84 18.83 20.86 19.77 16.36 7.12 3.40 4.2411.89 13.34 32.05 15.57 22.59 9.26 17.96 20.50 6.61 2.32 2.4035.07 26.18 29.39 26.64 11.99 33.42 27.37 -3.04 1.74 3.14 4.27

-16.46 10.99 38.90 15.52 4.78 13.82 12.66 23.80 9.24 9.98 6.92-37.05 -41.62 -52.81 -44.10 -34.36 -44.73 -41.74 -43.33 22.52 13.32 5.0529.58 28.17 75.98 36.73 21.18 31.91 33.77 39.92 -12.05 -1.69 5.9328.30 8.54 18.86 11.12 15.77 4.91 7.31 24.13 8.93 7.35 6.42

8.47 -12.53 -19.18 -14.56 -14.00 -11.60 -14.58 -7.56 29.28 9.80 7.56

VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX12.20 11.56 22.25 13.05 9.92 13.76 13.54 11.70 10.48 8.13 7.5718.57 24.60 35.45 25.37 30.01 24.18 24.53 19.65 11.62 6.53 5.0910.52 8.81 16.70 10.10 6.09 11.12 10.81 9.74 9.89 7.93 7.46

345.00 605.19 1256.56 643.79 900.53 584.45 601.75 386.06 134.92 42.63 25.89

0.55 0.67 0.61 0.69 0.45 0.81 0.63 0.26 -0.04 -0.02 0.31

0.41 1.00 0.78 0.99 0.91 0.88 0.98 0.18 -0.05 -0.07 0.12

Page 125: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.43 0.30 0.51 0.35 0.19 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.54 0.61 0.67

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

$14.89 $9.77 $64.66 $13.44 $4.93 $17.22 $15.96 $12.30 $12.75 $7.86 $6.97

REIT EAFED EM Total Intl Pacific Europe Intl Value COMM LTGB 5 Yr T ITBVGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX

19.1 56.7 60.9 57.33 39.39 79.8 55.11 13.03 31 20.3 1819.2 69.9 62.7 68.82 93.82 44.5 65.37 -6.19 24.5 15.1 13.1-3.6 24.9 37.7 26.82 39.85 4.1 35.02 17.91 -2.93 2.9 1.1413.5 28.6 40.4 30.37 35.19 16.4 38.6 18.5 9.15 6.1 7.35

8.8 10.8 65 18.93 2.68 29.1 18.16 27.72 17.93 13.3 13.64-15.4 -23.2 -10.6 -21.31 -34.29 -3.4 -21.63 25.13 5.78 9.7 8.6535.7 12.5 59.9 19.61 10.65 12.4 10.8 3.77 17.43 15.3 15.2514.6 -11.8 11.4 -8.32 -18.17 -3.32 -10.8 6.58779 7.4 7.78 7.1419.7 32.9 74.8 39.18 35.46 29.13 40.4 6.42077 16.79 11.43 9.68

3.2 8.1 -7.3 5.79 13.04 1.88 11.4 5.89177 -7.03 -4.33 -2.6615.3 11.6 0.56 9.94 2.75 22.28 11.7 24.2885 30.11 20.44 18.1835.3 6.4 15.83 7.81 -7.82 21.26 9.2 18.3467 -1.25 1.92 3.58

18.77 2.1 -16.82 -0.77 -25.67 24.23 -4.58 -1.00293 13.9 8.96 9.44-16.32 20.3 -18.12 15.60 2.41 28.86 19.46 -25.3031 13.05 10.61 8.58

-4.04 27.3 61.57 29.92 57.05 16.62 21.81 19.6583 -8.66 -3.52 -0.7626.35 -14 -27.56 -15.61 -25.74 -8.18 -7.48 35.8308 19.72 14.03 11.3912.35 -22.04 -2.88 -20.15 -26.34 -20.3 -14.02 -15.2486 4.31 7.55 8.43

3.75 -15.7 -7.43 -15.08 -9.32 -17.95 -13.35 39.9297 16.67 14.15 8.2635.65 38.61 57.65 40.34 38.42 38.7 41.9 29.82 2.68 2.37 3.9730.76 20.25 26.12 20.84 18.83 20.86 19.77 16.36 7.12 3.4 4.2411.89 13.34 32.05 15.57 22.59 9.26 17.96 20.5 6.61 2.32 2.435.07 26.18 29.39 26.64 11.99 33.42 27.37 -3.04 1.74 3.14 4.27

-16.46 10.99 38.9 15.52 4.78 13.82 12.66 23.8 9.24 9.98 6.92-37.05 -41.62 -52.81 -44.1 -34.36 -44.73 -41.74 -43.33 22.52 13.32 5.0529.58 28.17 75.98 36.73 21.18 31.91 33.77 39.92 -12.05 -1.69 5.93

28.3 8.54 18.86 11.12 15.77 4.91 7.31 24.13 8.93 7.35 6.428.47 -12.53 -19.18 -14.56 -14 -11.6 -14.58 -7.56 29.28 9.8 7.56

Page 126: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

VGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX

1.000.41 1.000.44 0.78 1.000.44 0.99 0.85 1.000.26 0.91 0.76 0.91 1.000.46 0.88 0.69 0.88 0.63 1.000.42 0.98 0.81 0.98 0.90 0.85 1.000.38 0.18 0.40 0.24 0.16 0.23 0.24 1.00

-0.08 -0.05 -0.23 -0.09 -0.12 0.05 -0.10 -0.26 1.00-0.10 -0.07 -0.16 -0.09 -0.18 0.07 -0.11 -0.15 0.92 1.000.17 0.12 0.09 0.13 -0.07 0.32 0.09 0.01 0.79 0.90 1.00

-0.16 0.17 0.13 0.17 0.05 0.30 0.19 0.03 0.16 0.33 0.410.22 0.40 0.48 0.43 0.47 0.21 0.40 0.20 0.16 0.16 0.240.67 0.64 0.55 0.65 0.36 0.80 0.62 0.32 0.17 0.22 0.550.56 0.41 0.33 0.42 0.13 0.63 0.39 0.21 0.52 0.59 0.840.58 0.43 0.59 0.48 0.32 0.49 0.48 0.73 -0.21 -0.21 0.020.40 0.36 0.18 0.35 0.11 0.56 0.35 0.24 0.33 0.36 0.590.35 0.55 0.74 0.61 0.60 0.38 0.61 0.43 -0.33 -0.25 -0.120.81 0.65 0.62 0.67 0.45 0.72 0.66 0.37 -0.10 -0.07 0.280.72 0.53 0.44 0.54 0.27 0.66 0.52 0.31 0.07 0.07 0.40

-0.10 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.02 0.23 0.13 -0.06 0.44 0.65 0.740.34 0.36 0.32 0.37 0.19 0.48 0.35 0.12 0.64 0.70 0.870.43 0.37 0.31 0.38 0.17 0.50 0.36 0.22 0.60 0.66 0.850.73 0.64 0.63 0.67 0.46 0.68 0.62 0.26 0.12 0.16 0.45

-0.13 0.05 -0.01 0.05 -0.06 0.18 0.03 -0.09 0.68 0.88 0.860.40 0.65 0.73 0.69 0.57 0.69 0.60 0.35 -0.23 -0.20 0.090.85 0.52 0.51 0.55 0.29 0.65 0.52 0.38 0.03 0.05 0.390.62 0.66 0.70 0.69 0.51 0.74 0.62 0.35 -0.14 -0.13 0.200.25 0.06 0.20 0.10 -0.04 0.14 0.08 0.37 0.15 0.26 0.370.39 0.40 0.48 0.44 0.19 0.57 0.41 0.36 0.24 0.46 0.760.00 0.27 0.31 0.29 0.37 0.08 0.29 0.22 -0.12 -0.11 -0.210.31 0.88 0.78 0.89 0.88 0.75 0.87 0.32 -0.28 -0.29 -0.11

Page 127: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

8.47 -12.53 -19.18 -14.56 -14 -11.6 -14.58 -7.56 29.28 9.8 7.56

REIT EAFED EM Total Intl Pacific Europe Intl Value COMM LTGB 5 Yr T ITBVGSIX VDMIX VEIEX VGTSX VPACX VEURX VTRIX PCRIX VUSTX VFITX VBMFX

5.92% 23.69% 39.22% 26.19% 22.57% 25.26% 27.64% 15.45% 13.51% 10.80% 10.07%

16.99% 9.43% 23.24% 11.84% 7.28% 11.76% 11.44% 9.15% 12.25% 9.68% 9.27%

10.18% 7.14% -1.58% 6.16% -3.93% 15.76% 7.00% 7.30% 6.81% 6.21% 6.35%

18.26% 4.37% 18.74% 5.85% 6.14% 3.67% 8.35% 16.64% 7.37% 5.86% 5.43%

3.38% 2.61% 12.15% 4.44% 1.56% 3.04% 3.71% 3.39% 5.46% 6.29% 5.71%

10.83% 36.13% 52.24% 38.77% 38.92% 32.02% 40.85% 13.60% 15.12% 11.07% 10.36%

9.05% 7.06% 12.42% 8.17% 0.26% 14.29% 7.35% 7.34% 8.15% 7.49% 7.53%

10.40% 1.08% 9.82% 2.29% -0.69% 1.99% 4.45% 10.81% 7.42% 6.72% 6.06%

10.52% 8.81% 16.70% 10.10% 6.09% 11.12% 10.81% 9.74% 9.89% 7.93% 7.46%

Page 128: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

TBILL TIPS Wellington Wellesley Energy Health P.Metals Windsor Windsor II V ST TEVUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX

0.24 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.35 0.36 0.34 0.161984 2001 1972 1972 1985 1985 1985 1972 1985 1985

7.37 8.68 28.53 27.41 14.14 45.40 -5.36 28.03 10.74 6.786.00 21.96 18.40 18.34 12.70 21.42 49.88 20.27 21.41 7.396.12 8.18 2.28 -1.92 6.13 -0.50 38.73 1.23 -2.14 4.117.18 18.66 16.11 13.61 21.37 28.40 -14.19 28.70 24.72 5.618.87 5.89 21.60 20.93 43.45 32.95 30.40 15.02 27.83 7.087.94 5.99 -2.81 3.76 -1.37 16.79 -19.86 -15.50 -9.98 6.575.73 15.67 23.65 21.57 0.28 46.32 4.37 28.55 28.70 7.203.53 7.29 7.93 8.67 6.10 -1.57 -19.41 16.50 11.99 4.712.86 15.47 13.52 14.65 26.52 11.81 93.36 19.37 13.60 3.823.81 2.99 -0.49 -4.44 -1.63 9.54 -5.42 -0.15 -1.16 1.705.49 0.60 32.92 28.91 25.32 45.17 -4.48 30.15 38.83 5.925.09 3.89 16.19 9.42 34.00 21.36 -0.75 26.36 24.18 3.695.12 7.78 23.23 20.19 14.89 28.57 -38.92 21.97 32.37 4.075.00 2.59 12.06 11.84 -20.53 40.80 -3.91 0.81 16.36 4.324.55 7.68 4.41 -4.14 20.98 7.05 28.82 11.57 -5.81 2.585.80 4.59 10.40 16.17 36.43 60.53 -7.34 15.89 16.86 4.913.99 7.40 4.19 7.39 -2.55 -6.87 18.33 5.72 -3.40 4.751.51 16.61 -6.90 4.64 -0.62 -11.36 33.35 -22.25 -16.86 3.490.82 8.00 20.75 9.66 33.80 26.58 59.45 37.01 30.08 1.641.00 8.27 11.17 7.57 36.65 9.51 8.09 13.38 18.31 1.122.77 2.59 6.82 3.48 44.60 15.41 43.79 4.99 7.01 1.654.55 0.43 14.97 11.28 19.66 10.87 34.30 19.35 18.25 3.264.65 11.59 8.34 5.61 37.00 4.42 36.13 -3.30 2.23 4.191.97 -2.85 -22.30 -9.84 -42.87 -18.45 -56.02 -41.10 -36.70 3.740.53 10.80 22.20 16.02 38.36 20.96 76.46 34.69 27.05 3.070.01 6.17 10.94 10.65 13.43 6.16 37.45 14.82 10.62 0.950.02 13.24 3.85 9.63 -1.74 11.45 -21.70 -4.00 2.70 1.60

VUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX4.16 8.15 11.18 10.41 15.35 17.88 14.65 11.41 11.40 4.072.46 5.88 11.71 9.38 20.63 19.05 34.88 18.11 17.05 1.944.13 8.00 10.55 10.02 13.29 16.40 9.20 9.74 9.98 4.056.07 34.62 137.07 87.92 425.49 362.71 1216.29 327.82 290.62 3.74

0.22 0.13 0.91 0.68 0.49 0.62 0.24 0.85 0.85 0.18

0.17 0.40 0.64 0.41 0.43 0.36 0.55 0.65 0.53 0.12

Page 129: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.00 0.68 0.60 0.67 0.54 0.72 0.30 0.40 0.42 -0.05

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

$2.98 $7.99 $15.00 $13.18 $29.05 $60.41 $10.76 $12.31 $13.05 $2.92

TBILL TIPS Wellington Wellesley Energy Health P.Metals Windsor Windsor II V ST TEVUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX

7.37 8.9 28.53 27.41 14.43 45.76 -5.03 28.03 11.12 6.956 22.2 18.4 18.34 12.7 21.42 49.88 20.27 21.41 7.39

6.12 8.4 2.28 -1.92 6.13 -0.5 38.73 1.23 -2.14 4.117.18 18.9 16.11 13.61 21.37 28.4 -14.19 28.7 24.72 5.618.87 6.1 21.6 20.93 43.45 32.95 30.4 15.02 27.83 7.087.94 6.2 -2.81 3.76 -1.37 16.79 -19.86 -15.5 -9.98 6.575.73 15.9 23.65 21.57 0.28 46.32 4.37 28.55 28.7 7.23.53 7.5 7.93 8.67 6.1 -1.57 -19.41 16.5 11.99 4.712.86 15.7 13.52 14.65 26.52 11.81 93.36 19.37 13.6 3.823.81 3.2 -0.49 -4.44 -1.63 9.54 -5.42 -0.15 -1.16 1.75.49 0.8 32.92 28.91 25.32 45.17 -4.48 30.15 38.83 5.925.09 4.1 16.19 9.42 34 21.36 -0.75 26.36 24.18 3.695.12 8 23.23 20.19 14.89 28.57 -38.92 21.97 32.37 4.07

5 2.8 12.06 11.84 -20.53 40.8 -3.91 0.81 16.36 4.324.55 7.9 4.41 -4.14 20.98 7.05 28.82 11.57 -5.81 2.58

5.8 4.8 10.4 16.17 36.43 60.53 -7.34 15.89 16.86 4.913.99 7.61 4.19 7.39 -2.55 -6.87 18.33 5.72 -3.4 4.751.51 16.61 -6.9 4.64 -0.62 -11.36 33.35 -22.25 -16.86 3.490.82 8 20.75 9.66 33.8 26.58 59.45 37.01 30.08 1.64

1 8.27 11.17 7.57 36.65 9.51 8.09 13.38 18.31 1.122.77 2.59 6.82 3.48 44.6 15.41 43.79 4.99 7.01 1.654.55 0.43 14.97 11.28 19.66 10.87 34.3 19.35 18.25 3.264.65 11.59 8.34 5.61 37 4.42 36.13 -3.3 2.23 4.191.97 -2.85 -22.3 -9.84 -42.87 -18.45 -56.02 -41.1 -36.7 3.740.53 10.8 22.2 16.02 38.36 20.96 76.46 34.69 27.05 3.070.01 6.17 10.94 10.65 13.43 6.16 37.45 14.82 10.62 0.950.02 13.24 3.85 9.63 -1.74 11.45 -21.7 -4 2.7 1.6

Page 130: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

VUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX

1.000.01 1.000.29 0.19 1.000.33 0.26 0.89 1.000.06 0.13 0.58 0.37 1.000.47 0.02 0.74 0.75 0.35 1.00

-0.24 0.35 0.25 0.08 0.53 -0.09 1.000.14 0.23 0.91 0.70 0.63 0.62 0.34 1.000.20 0.16 0.93 0.79 0.61 0.72 0.21 0.90 1.000.82 0.26 0.33 0.53 -0.10 0.44 -0.18 0.15 0.21 1.000.34 0.52 0.62 0.85 0.15 0.56 0.07 0.46 0.49 0.690.29 0.48 0.68 0.89 0.27 0.61 0.11 0.52 0.58 0.610.00 0.49 0.84 0.75 0.38 0.49 0.36 0.85 0.77 0.210.62 0.20 0.28 0.56 -0.17 0.39 -0.19 0.03 0.11 0.880.10 0.17 0.70 0.40 0.49 0.40 0.38 0.70 0.61 0.030.06 0.20 0.91 0.78 0.62 0.63 0.25 0.95 0.91 0.120.04 0.19 0.84 0.57 0.54 0.48 0.36 0.86 0.77 0.03

-0.23 0.27 0.32 0.40 0.12 0.16 0.32 0.20 0.34 0.050.48 0.36 0.75 0.83 0.32 0.62 0.23 0.60 0.59 0.70

-0.49 0.14 -0.16 -0.20 0.16 -0.41 0.70 -0.15 -0.23 -0.370.10 0.24 0.46 0.17 0.46 0.27 0.60 0.54 0.34 -0.05

Page 131: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.02 13.24 3.85 9.63 -1.74 11.45 -21.7 -4 2.7 1.6

TBILL TIPS Wellington Wellesley Energy Health P.Metals Windsor Windsor II V ST TEVUSXX VIPSX VWELX VWINX VGENX VGHCX VGPMX VWNDX VWNFX VWSTX

7.24% 11.38% 13.48% 13.24% 15.26% 23.23% 9.93% 11.77% 11.18% 6.25%

4.28% 8.22% 14.91% 13.29% 10.66% 20.69% 8.00% 18.36% 17.57% 4.65%

5.11% 5.29% 13.09% 10.37% 15.09% 30.43% -7.01% 14.97% 16.05% 3.91%

2.01% 8.48% 6.82% 6.52% 20.69% 5.72% 31.35% 6.04% 5.75% 2.52%

2.32% 5.07% 5.58% 6.35% 8.01% 3.93% 14.29% 1.01% 1.47% 3.04%

7.10% 12.50% 17.06% 15.23% 18.91% 24.56% 17.10% 18.20% 15.97% 6.19%

4.90% 6.89% 12.55% 10.56% 9.25% 21.54% -1.23% 13.03% 13.80% 4.45%

2.74% 6.60% 6.15% 6.96% 16.30% 9.24% 17.79% 3.59% 4.16% 3.17%

4.13% 8.00% 10.55% 10.02% 13.29% 16.40% 9.20% 9.74% 9.98% 4.05%

Page 132: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

V Int TE V LT TE Hi-Yld C ST Treasury MidCap Val V Ext MktVWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

0.17 0.16 0.17 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0 0.211985 1985 1985 1992 2007 2007 1988 1987 1982

17.13 20.58 21.78 12.91 31.66 31.66 31.27 1.65 14.9016.21 19.38 16.86 11.61 17.30 17.59 12.30 1.65 11.40

1.64 -1.14 2.65 5.73 2.53 -2.45 -4.09 1.65 4.4610.00 12.24 13.55 5.63 12.61 24.28 19.45 6.25 6.9510.00 11.54 1.89 8.42 31.16 22.38 24.10 13.45 11.45

7.20 6.82 -5.85 8.62 -5.35 -16.32 -14.05 8.05 9.2312.16 13.50 29.01 10.41 46.62 37.54 41.85 14.95 13.08

8.85 9.30 14.24 6.47 8.42 21.38 12.47 4.05 7.2011.55 13.45 18.24 6.41 10.91 15.30 14.49 11.75 7.07-2.12 -5.75 -1.71 -0.58 -2.45 -2.35 -1.76 0.75 -0.0813.65 18.72 19.15 12.11 33.65 34.55 33.80 18.75 12.74

4.20 4.41 9.54 4.39 18.62 21.15 17.65 3.85 4.797.08 9.29 11.91 6.39 20.29 36.72 26.73 -0.90 6.955.76 6.02 5.62 7.36 16.96 1.26 8.32 12.50 6.57

-0.50 -3.53 2.55 1.85 70.09 1.93 36.22 -4.29 3.309.24 13.32 -0.88 8.83 -26.48 22.15 -15.55 0.43 8.175.05 4.54 2.90 7.80 -20.64 8.51 -9.13 2.48 8.147.91 10.11 1.73 8.02 -23.53 -9.92 -18.06 21.33 5.224.46 5.21 17.20 2.38 39.90 37.55 43.43 16.59 4.203.23 4.12 8.52 1.03 13.52 26.84 18.71 11.56 2.112.24 3.07 2.77 1.77 14.72 12.56 10.29 -6.36 2.204.43 5.16 8.24 3.77 9.39 17.51 14.27 5.85 4.993.43 2.54 2.04 7.89 17.00 -4.62 4.33 9.26 5.86

-0.14 -4.87 -21.29 6.68 -47.07 -36.64 -38.73 -2.67 -4.7410.22 14.08 20.13 1.44 42.54 37.61 37.43 17.17 14.03

2.13 1.50 12.40 2.64 28.93 21.63 27.37 11.24 5.219.62 10.69 7.13 2.26 -3.84 -0.44 -3.73 9.20 1.93

VWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX6.84 7.57 8.16 6.01 13.24 13.98 12.20 7.04 6.574.97 7.06 10.25 3.62 24.90 18.61 20.41 7.38 4.516.73 7.34 7.67 5.95 10.28 12.33 10.22 6.80 6.48

24.68 49.88 105.01 13.10 620.00 346.32 416.68 54.50 20.34

0.39 0.43 0.79 0.06 0.90 0.81 0.95 0.28 0.58

0.36 0.37 0.64 0.05 0.65 0.52 0.66 0.06 0.40

MidCap Growth

Global Bond Fund

ST Investment Grade

Page 133: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.54 0.48 0.39 0.51 0.36 0.53 0.39 0.39 0.53

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

$5.80 $6.77 $7.35 $4.76 $14.05 $23.06 $13.83 $5.91 $5.44

V Int TE V LT TE Hi-Yld C V Ext MktVWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

17.33 20.77 21.99 13.2 32 32 31.60 1.65 14.9016.21 19.38 16.86 11.9 17.6 17.9 12.58 1.65 11.40

1.64 -1.14 2.65 6 2.8 -2.2 -3.85 1.65 4.4610 12.24 13.55 5.9 12.9 24.6 19.75 6.25 6.9510 11.54 1.89 8.7 31.5 22.7 24.1 13.45 11.45

7.2 6.82 -5.85 8.9 -5.1 -16.1 -14.05 8.05 9.2312.16 13.5 29.01 10.7 47 37.9 41.85 14.95 13.08

8.85 9.3 14.24 6.75 8.7 21.7 12.47 4.05 7.2011.55 13.45 18.24 6.41 11.2 15.6 14.49 11.75 7.07-2.12 -5.75 -1.71 -0.58 -2.2 -2.1 -1.76 0.75 -0.0813.65 18.72 19.15 12.11 34 34.9 33.8 18.75 12.74

4.2 4.41 9.54 4.39 18.93 21.46 17.65 3.85 4.797.08 9.29 11.91 6.39 20.6 37.08 26.73 -0.9 6.955.76 6.02 5.62 7.36 17.26 1.52 8.32 12.5 6.57-0.5 -3.53 2.55 1.85 70.53 2.2 36.22 -4.29 3.309.24 13.32 -0.88 8.83 -26.29 22.47 -15.55 0.43 8.175.05 4.54 2.9 7.8 -20.43 8.79 -9.13 2.48 8.147.91 10.11 1.73 8.02 -23.33 -9.69 -18.06 21.33 5.224.46 5.21 17.2 2.38 40.26 37.91 43.43 16.59 4.203.23 4.12 8.52 1.03 13.82 27.17 18.71 11.56 2.112.24 3.07 2.77 1.77 15.02 12.85 10.29 -6.36 2.204.43 5.16 8.24 3.77 9.67 17.82 14.27 5.85 4.993.43 2.54 2.04 7.89 17.3 -4.37 4.33 9.26 5.86

-0.14 -4.87 -21.29 6.68 -47.07 -36.64 -38.73 -2.67 -4.7410.22 14.08 20.13 1.44 42.54 37.61 37.43 17.17 14.03

2.13 1.5 12.4 2.64 28.93 21.63 27.37 11.24 5.219.62 10.69 7.13 2.26 -3.84 -0.44 -3.73 9.2 1.93

ST Treasury

MidCap Growth

MidCap Val

Global Bond Fund

ST Investment Grade

Page 134: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

VWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

1.000.98 1.000.64 0.66 1.000.70 0.64 0.19 1.000.18 0.20 0.67 -0.09 1.000.50 0.58 0.85 0.07 0.62 1.000.30 0.34 0.81 -0.07 0.94 0.83 1.000.35 0.39 0.41 0.13 0.21 0.28 0.29 1.000.81 0.82 0.67 0.63 0.45 0.61 0.51 0.38 1.00

-0.13 -0.11 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.19 -0.06 0.25 -0.100.10 0.11 0.43 -0.15 0.72 0.39 0.64 0.00 0.27

Page 135: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

9.62 10.69 7.13 2.26 -3.84 -0.44 -3.73 9.2 1.93

V Int TE V LT TE Hi-Yld C V Ext MktVWITX VWLTX VWEHX VFISX VMGIX VMVIX VEXMX PIGLX VFSTX

10.24% 11.32% 8.05% 8.78% 14.16% 11.51% 10.31% 5.36% 9.68%

8.66% 9.51% 15.34% 6.87% 18.11% 20.39% 19.14% 9.84% 7.89%

5.10% 5.75% 5.65% 5.74% 15.85% 15.87% 13.19% 2.16% 5.94%

4.56% 5.38% 6.47% 4.16% 2.03% 13.93% 6.93% 8.65% 4.35%

3.96% 3.50% 3.26% 4.46% 4.48% 3.52% 5.04% 7.97% 4.90%

10.85% 12.24% 11.07% 8.82% 18.52% 18.09% 15.95% 4.83% 9.77%

6.67% 6.98% 9.82% 6.28% 19.97% 13.72% 16.33% 6.71% 7.02%

4.96% 5.59% 3.54% 4.92% -2.39% 8.64% 1.72% 7.21% 4.92%

6.73% 7.34% 7.67% 5.95% 10.28% 12.33% 10.22% 6.80% 6.48%

ST Treasury

MidCap Growth

MidCap Val

Global Bond Fund

ST Investment Grade

Page 136: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

GOLD

GLD VFSVX0.4 0.5 - - - - - - - -

2004 1997 - - - - - - - -

5.26 66.6720.82 58.7521.72 39.97

-15.59 25.31-3.23 30.12-1.86 -18.35

-10.43 5.30-6.12 -20.9817.21 33.72-2.56 15.330.58 2.15

-4.97 3.88-21.72 -14.56

-1.22 25.980.45 90.29

-5.82 -2.680.44 -22.52

24.96 -13.8819.12 57.37

4.48 31.7717.76 20.4921.95 30.3430.56 5.15

4.96 -46.6223.99 47.1229.27 24.97

9.57 -20.28

GLD VFSVX6.65 16.85

14.23 31.885.73 12.48

202.52 1016.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

-0.17 0.59

0.27 0.88

VG Intl Small

Page 137: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0.18 0.40

$4.50 $23.93

$4.50 $23.93

$4.50 $23.93

$4.50 $23.93

$4.50 $23.93

$4.50 $23.93

$4.50 $23.93

GOLDGLD VFSVX

5.68 67.5021.31 59.5422.21 40.67

-15.26 25.94-2.84 30.77-1.47 -17.94

-10.07 5.83-5.75 -20.5817.68 34.39-2.17 15.910.98 2.66

-4.59 4.40-21.41 -14.13

-0.83 25.980.85 90.29

-5.44 -2.680.84 -22.52

25.46 -13.8819.60 57.37

4.90 31.7717.76 20.4921.95 30.3430.56 5.15

4.96 -46.6223.99 47.1229.27 24.97

9.57 -20.28

VG Intl Small

Page 138: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

GLD VFSVX

1.000.29 1.00

Page 139: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

9.57 -20.28

GOLD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0GLD VFSVX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.66% 30.46%

-0.69% 5.56%

-7.01% 15.67%

12.96% 10.76%

21.78% 6.11%

4.81% 43.28%

-3.51% 8.58%

13.63% 5.73%

5.73% 12.48%

VG Intl Small

Page 140: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

InflationCPI-U

--

3.801.104.434.424.656.113.062.902.752.672.543.321.701.612.683.391.552.381.883.263.422.544.080.092.721.502.96

CPI-U2.871.252.86

0.00 1.57

0.12

0.03

Page 141: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

-1.03

$2.14

$2.14

$2.14

$2.14

$2.14

$2.14

$2.14

InflationCPI-U

3.801.104.434.424.656.113.062.902.752.672.543.321.701.612.683.391.552.381.883.263.422.544.080.092.72

1.52.96

Page 142: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a
Page 143: Backtest Portfolio Returns Rev11a

0 Inflation0 CPI-U

4.07%

2.79%

2.54%

2.49%

2.18%

3.67%

2.93%

2.52%

2.86%