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A2: No Impact
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Econ collapse causes nuclear warHarris and Burrows 9 - Mathew, PhD European History at Cambride,counse!or in the Nationa! Inte!!ience Counci! "NIC# and $enni%er, member o% the
NIC&s 'on (ane Ana!ysis )nit *(e+isitin the uture: eopo!itica! E.ects o% theinancia! Crisis/ http:00www1ciaonet1or0ourna!s0tw30+42i20%5667879574;% course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed be!ie+es the %uture is
!i?e!y to be the resu!t o% a number o% intersectin and inter!oc?in %orces1 @ith so many possib!e permutations o% outcomes, eachwith amp!e (e+isitin the uture opportunity %or unintended conse3uences, there is a rowin sense o% insecurity1 E+en so, history
may be more instructi+e than e+er1 @hi!e we continue to be!ie+e thatthe reat Depression is not !i?e!y tobe repeated, the !essons to be drawn %rom that period inc!ude the harm%u!e.ects on =ed!in democracies and mu!tiethnic societies "thin? Centra!
Europe in 7;26s and 7;46s# and on the sustainabi!ity o% mu!ti!atera!institutions"thin? 'eaue o% Nations in the same period#1 here is no reason to thin? that this wou!d not be true in thetwenty-Brst as much as in the twentieth century1 or that reason, the ways in which thepotentia! %or reaterconfict could grow wou!d seem to be e+en more apt in a constant!y volatile
economic en+ironmentas they wou!d be i% chane wou!d be steadier1 In sur+eyin those ris?s, the report stressedthe !i?e!ihood that terrorism and nonpro!i%eration wi!! remain priorities e+en as resource issues mo+e up on the internationa! aenda1
errorism&s appea! wi!! dec!ine i% economic rowth continues in the Midd!e East and youth unemp!oyment is reduced1 or those
terrorist roups that remain acti+e in 262
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mi!itary1 Gui!dup o% reiona! na+a! capabi!ities cou!d !ead to increased tensions, ri+a!ries, and counterba!ancin mo+es, but it a!so wi!!
create opportunities %or mu!tinationa! cooperation in protectin critica! sea !anes1 @ith water a!so becomin scarcer in Asia and the
Midd!e East,cooperation to manae chanin water resources is !i?e!y to beincreasin!y diFcu!t both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dogworld.
2ACCybersecurity Ad+antae
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Military operations solve all confict so there’s
minimal risk Kagan and O’Hanlon 7
rederic? aan and Michae! >&Han!on, red&s a resident scho!ar at AEI, Michae! is a senior %e!!ow in %orein po!icyat Groo?ins, *he Case %or 'arer round orces/, Apri! 2J, 2669,http:00www1aei1or0B!es0266906J02J026696J2J5aan26696J2J1pd%
@e !i+e at a time when wars not on!y rae in near!y e+ery reion but threaten to erupt in
many p!aces where the current re!ati+e ca!m is tenuous1 o +iew this as a strateic
mi!itary cha!!ene %or the )nited tates is not to espouse a speciBc theory o% America&sro!e in the wor!d or a certain po!itica! phi!osophy1 uch an assessment =ows direct!y %rom thebasic bipartisan +iew o% American %orein po!icy ma?ers since @or!d @ar II that o+erseas threats must be counteredbe%ore they can direct!y threaten this country&s shores, that the basic stabi!ity o% the internationa! system is
essentia! to American peace and prosperity, and that no country besides the U nited S tates is in a
position to !ead the way in counterin maor cha!!enes to the !oba! order1 'et us
hih!iht the threats and their conse3uences with a %ew concrete eamp!es,
emphasiinthose that in+o!+e ?ey strateic reions o% the wor!d such as
the Persian u!% and EastAsia , or ?ey potentia! threats to American security, such as the spread o% nuc!ear weapons and the
strenthenin o% the !oba! A! Kaeda 0ihadist mo+ement1 he Iranian o+ernmenthas reected a series o% internationa! demands to ha!t its e.orts at enrichin
uranium and submit to internationa! inspections1 @hat wi!! happen i% the )or
Israe!io+ernment becomes con+inced that ehran is on the +ere o% Be!din anuc!ear weaponL North orea , o% course, has a!ready done so, and the ripp!e e.ects
are beinnin to spread1 $apan&s recent e!ection to supreme power o% a !eader who has
promised to rewrite that country&s constitution to support increased armed %orcesand, possib!y,e+en nuc!ear weapons may we!! a!ter the de!icate ba!ance o% %ear in Northeast Asia
%undamenta!!y and rapid!y1 A!so, in the bac?round, at !east %or now, inoaiwanese tensions
continue to =are, as do tensions between India and Pa?istan , Pa?istan and
A%hanistan, eneue!a and the )nited tates, and so on1 Meanwhi!e, the wor!d&snoninter+ention in Dar%ur troub!es consciences %rom Europe to America&s Gib!e Ge!t to its bastions o%
!ibera!ism, yet with no serious internationa! %orces on o.er, the b!ood!ettin wi!! probab!y, traica!!y,
continue unabated1 And as bad as thins are in Ira3 today, they cou!d et worse1 @hat wou!d happen i% the?ey hiite Bure, A!i a! istani, were to dieL I% another maor attac? on the sca!e o% the o!den Mos3ue bombin hit
either side "or, perhaps, both sides at the same time#L uch deterioration miht con+ince many Americans that the
war there tru!y was !ostbut the costs o% reachin such a conc!usion wou!d be enormous1 A%hanistan is somewhat
more stab!e %or the moment, a!thouh a maor a!iban o.ensi+e appears to be in the oFn1 ound ) rand
stratey must proceed %rom the reconition that, o+er the net %ew years and decades, the wor!dis oin to be a +ery unsett!ed and 3uite danerous p!ace, with A! Kaeda and its associated
roups as a subset o% a much !arer set o% worries1 he on!y serious response to this internationa!
en+ironment is to de+e!op armed %orces capab!e o% protectin America&s +ita!interests throuhout this danerous time1 Doing so requires a military capable of a wide
range of missions including not only deterrence of great power conflict in dealing with potentialhotspots in Korea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Persian Gulf but also associated with a variety of
Special orces activities and stabili!ation operations1 or today&s ) mi!itary, which a!ready ece!s at hihtechno!oy and is increasin!y %ocused on re-!earnin the !ost art o% counterinsurency, this is Brst and %oremost a
3uestion o% Bndin the resources to Be!d a !are-enouh standin Army and Marine Corps to hand!e personne!
intensi+e missions such as the ones now under way in Ira3 and A%hanistan1
http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdfhttp://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf
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Kills the economy causes nuclear meltdowns and
nuclear war ! all cause e"tinction#uterl, eecuti+e editor cientiBc American, 77020’$%
"red, *Armaeddon 216,/ Gu!!etin o% the Atomic cientists#
The world lived %or ha!% a century with the constant specter of nuclear war and its potentia!!y
devastating consequences. The end of the Cold War took the potency out of this
Armageddon scenario, yet the existential dangers have on!y multiplied . Today the
techno!oies that pose some o% the biggest problems are not so much military as commercia!1 They
come from bio!oy, enery production, and the in%ormation sciences -- and are the +ery techno!oies that
ha+e %ue!ed our prodiious rowth as a species1 hey are %ar more seducti+e than nuc!ear
weapons, and more diFcu!t to etricate ourse!+es %rom1 he techno!oies we worry
about today %orm the basis o our !oba! civilization and are essential to oursurvival . he mista?e many o% us ma?e about the dar?er aspects o% our hih-tech ci+i!iation is in thin?in thatwe ha+e p!enty o% time to address them1 @e may, i% weOre !uc?y1 Gut itOs more !i?e!y that we ha+e !ess time than we
thin?1 here may be a !imited window o% opportunity %or pre+entin catastrophes such as pandemics, runaway c!imate chane, and cyber attac?s on nationa! power rids1 Emerindiseases1 he in=uena pandemic o% 266; is a case in point1 Gecause o% risin prosperity and tra+e!, the wor!d has rown more conduci+e to adestructi+e =u +irus in recent years, many pub!ic hea!th oFcia!s be!ie+e1 Most peop!e probab!y remember 266; as a time when hea!th oFcia!so+erreacted1 Gut in truth, the 266; +irus came %rom nowhere, and by the time it reached the radar screens o% hea!th oFcia!s, it was a!ready we!! on its wayto spreadin %ar and wide1 H7N7 cauht us a!! with our pants down, says =u epert (obert 1 @ebster o% t1 $ude Chi!drenOs (esearch Hospita! inMemphis, ennessee1 Ge%ore it became apparent that the +irus was a mi!d one, hea!th oFcia!s must ha+e %e!t as i% they were starin into the abyss1 I% the+irus had been as dead!y as, say, the 7;7 =u +irus or some more recent strains o% bird =u, the resu!t wou!d ha+e ri+a!ed what the p!anners o% the 7;cean, chanin the atmosphericdynamics upon which the monsoon depends -- ?eepin much o% the sunOs enery %rom reachin the sur%ace, and !essenin the power o% storms1 At thesame time, the bui!dup o% reenhouse ases -- emitted main!y %rom de+e!oped countries in the northern hemisphere -- has a +ery di.erent e.ect on theIndian summer monsoon: It ma?es it stroner1 hese two opposite in=uences ma?e the %ate o% the monsoon diFcu!t to predict and subect to instabi!ity1 Asma!! in=uence -- a bit more carbon dioide in the atmosphere, and a bit more brown hae -- cou!d ha+e an outsie e.ect1 he Indian monsoon, 'enton
be!ie+es, cou!d be teeterin on a ?ni%eOs ede, ready to chane abrupt!y in ways that are hard to predict1 @hat happens thenL More than a bi!!ion peop!edepend on the monsoonOs rains1 >ther tippin points may be in p!ay, says 'enton1 he @est A%rican monsoon is potentia!!y near a tippin point1 o arereen!andOs !aciers, which ho!d enouh water to raise sea !e+e!s by more than 26 %eetR and the @est Antarctic Ice heet, which has enouh ice to raisesea !e+e!s by at !east 76 %eet1 (eiona! tippin points cou!d hasten the i!! e.ects o% c!imate chane more 3uic?!y than current!y proected by theIntero+ernmenta! Pane! on C!imate Chane1 Computer hac?in1 he computer industry has a!ready made it possib!e %or computers to hand!e a +ariety o%
tas?s without human inter+ention1 Autonomous computers, usin techni3ues %ormer!y ?nown as artiBcia! inte!! ience,
ha+e beun to eert contro! in +irtua!!y e+ery sphere o% our !i+es1 Cars, %or instance, cannow ta?e action to a+oid co!!isions1 o do this, a car has to ma?e decisions: @hen does it ta?e contro!L How muchbra?in power shou!d be app!ied, and to which whee!sL And when shou!d the car a!!ow its re=e-cha!!ened dri+er
to reain contro!L Cars that dri+e themse!+es, current!y bein Be!d tested, cou!d hit dea!er showrooms in a %ew
years1 Autonomous computers can ma?e our !i+es easier and sa%er, but they can a!so ma?e them
more danerous1 A case in point is tunet, the computer worm desined by the ) and Israe! to attac?
IranOs nuc!ear %ue! proram1 It is a watershed in the brie% history o% ma!ware -- the $ason Gourne o% computercode, desined %or maimum autonomy and e.ecti+eness1 tunetOs creators a+e their proram the best trainin
possib!e: they stoc?ed it with detai!ed technica! ?now!ede that wou!d come in handy %or whate+er situation
tunet cou!d concei+ab!y encounter1 A!thouh the so%tware inc!uded rende+ous procedures and communication
codes %or reportin bac? to head3uarters, tunet was bui!t to sur+i+e and carry out its mission
e+en i% it %ound itse!% cut o.1 he uranium centri%ues that tunet attac?ed are +ery
simi!ar in princip!e to the enerators that power the ) e!ectrica! rid 1 Goth are monitored andcontro!!ed by prorammab!e-!oic computer chips1 tunet c!e+er!y caused the uranium centri%ues to throw
themse!+es o.-ba!ance, in=ictin enouh damae to set the Iranian nuc!ear industry bac? by 7 months or more1 A
simi!ar piece o% ma!ware insta!!ed on the computers that contro! the enerators at the baseo% the rand Cou!ee Dam wou!d !i?ewise cause them to sha?e, ratt!e, and ro!! -- and e+entua!!y
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ep!ode1 I% tunet-!i?e ma!ware were to insinuate itse!% into a %ew hundred power enerators in the )nitedtates and attac? them a!! at once, the damae wou!d be enouh to cause b!ac?outs on the East and @est Coasts1
@ith such widespread destruction, it cou!d ta?e many months to restore power tothe rid1 It seems incredib!e that this shou!d be so, but the wor!dwide capacity to manu%acture
enerator parts is !imited1 enerators enera!!y !ast 46 years, sometimes
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Modern society depends on strong cy&er security
to survive'(e&astian )9 "(ohan,- research %or the oFce o% irinia enator Mar? @arner C Computer cience %rom)A, 8-2J *he edera! o+ernment&s (o!e in Preser+in Cybersecurity %or Critica! In%rastructure/#
he intersection o% critica! in%rastructure and cyberspace has presented many cha!!enes to po!icyma?ers1 Critica!in%rastructure inc!udes areas !i?e the water and %ood supp!y, te!ecommunications ,
nuc!ear power, transportation, ban?in, and enery---areas crucia! to the %unctionin
o% society1 S Howe+er, remote access to critica! in%rastructure %rom cyberspace has p!acedthese systems at ris? o% destruction by other countries, ma!icious actors, or
terrorists 1 his ana!ysis proposes three options that the %edera! o+ernment can imp!ement: strenthenin partnershipsbetween the pub!ic and pri+ate sectors, interatin resources under a @hite House oFcia!, and increasin co!!aboration between!e+e!s o% critica! in%rastructure1 A%ter scrutiniin these options under the criteria o% po!itica! %easibi!ity, industry acceptance, and
eFcacy, this ana!ysis recommends that the %edera! o+ernment pursue a combination o% a!! three po!icy options1 Critica!
in%rastructure inc!udes areas such as transportation, water supp!ies, pub!ic hea!th,
te!ecommunications, enery, ban?in and Bnance, emerency and in%ormationser+ices, nuc!ear %aci!ities, %ood supp!ies, and de%ense and chemica! industries "Mote.T Par%oma?, 266J#1 Accordin to the Department o% Home!and ecurity&s Nationa! tratey %or Home!and ecurity, critica!in%rastructure consists o% *assets, systems, and networ?s, whether physica! or +irtua!, so +ita! to the )nited tates that their
incapacitation or destruction wou!d ha+e a debi!itatin e.ect on security, nationa! economic security, pub!ic hea!th or sa%ety, or any
combination thereo%/ "Home!and ecurity Counci!, 2669#1 iure 7 i!!ustrates the myriad o% in%rastructures and their
interdependencies with one another1 imp!y put, critica! in%rastructures comprise the %oundation %orthe modern economy and nationa! security, so the %edera! o+ernment shares responsibi!ity %or protectinthem1 Howe+er, the o+ernment rests in a precarious position because the pri+ate sector owns about eihty
percent o% critica! in%rastructure "orest, 2668, p1 9#1 urthermore, about eihty percent o% a!! American commerce occurs on
pri+ate!y owned te!ecommunications networ?s, primari!y the Internet "heohary, 266;, p1 26#1 E+en the most
+a!uab!e nationa! de%ense systems re!y on pri+ate!y owned te!ecommunications S e+era!
o+ernment oFcia!s ha+e emphasied the catastrophic e.ects o% compromised cybersecurity1 Pau!
urt, an ad+isor on President >bama&s transition team, warned o% a *cyber atrina,/ a catac!ysm in which
o+ernment aencies wou!d %ai! to coordinate a%ter a cyber attac? and wou!d subsequentlycollapse "Epstein, 266;#1 S In %act, Director o% Nationa! Inte!!ience Dennis G!air stated that cyber attac?saainst Bnancia! sectors and physica! in%rastructure cou!d *se+ere!y impact the
nationa! economy/ and disturb enery sources !i?e oi! and e!ectricity %or an indeBnite period"Annua! hreat Assessment, 266;#1 Geyond threatenin the pri+ate sector, intruders ha+e been speciBca!!y taretin the %edera!
o+ernment&s in%ormation techno!oy in%rastructure1 A report by the Internationa! Gusiness Machines Corporation re+ea!ed that o%the 249 mi!!ion security attac?s carried out in the Brst ha!% o% 266
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*his could collapse civili+ation',dhikari ’)9 "(ichard,- !eadin ourna!ist on ad+anced-IP issues %or se+era! maor pub!ications, inc!udin
he @a!! treet $ourna! *Ci+i!iationOs Hih ta?es Cyber-tru!e: KTA @ith en1 @es!ey C!ar? "ret1#/#
he con=icts in the Midd!e East and A%hanistan, to name the most prominent, are ta?in their to!! on human !i%e
and !imb1 Howe+er, the esca!atin cybercon=ict amon nations is %ar more danerous, aruesretired enera! @es!ey C!ar?, who spo?e with echNews@or!d in an ec!usi+e inter+iew1 S11 ItOs a matter o%thousands o% probes a day, in and out, aainst systems that be!on to ob+ious tarets !i?e the )nited
tates Department o% De%enseR not-so-ob+ious tarets !i?e ban?s and enery companiesR and
indi+idua! consumers or tapayers1 S1 @e are, as a ci+i!iation, 3uite +u!nerab!e todisruption, and this security prob!em doesnOt ust a.ect one nation but the who!e !oba! economic in%rastructure1
Qou canOt concei+e o% the threats %rom the point o% +iew o% a traditiona! war1 Cyber-e.orts are onoin todayR weOre
in a cyber-stru!e today1 @e donOt ?now who the ad+ersaries are in many cases, but we ?now what the sta?es
are: continued economic +ita!ity and, u!timate!y, !oba! ci+i!iation 1
,%- #entri.cation /,0e are not the cause o1 #entri.cation
Madden $2 "Da+id is an assistant pro%essor in the Department o% ocio!oy and the Cities Proramme at the'ondon choo! o% Economics, he uardian, >ctober 2674#
Here&s how entriBcation ta!? typica!!y oes: poor neihborhoods are said to need *reeneration/ or *re+ita!iation/,
as i% !i%e!essness and torpor as opposed to impo+erishment and disempowerment were the prob!em1 Ec!usion is
rebranded as creati+e *renewa!/1 he !ibera! mission to *increase di+ersity/ is per+erse!y used as
an ecuse to turn residents out o% their homes in p!aces !i?e Har!em or Griton areas
%amous %or their !on histories o% independent po!itica! and cu!tura! scenes1 A%ter
entriBcation ta?es ho!d, neihborhoods are commended %or ha+in *bounced bac?/
%rom po+erty, inorin the %act that po+erty has usua!!y on!y been bounced e!sewhere1
In an insidious way, the narrati+e o% *urban renaissance/ the ta!e o% heroic e!ites redeemin a city that had been!ost to the danerous c!asses permeates a !ot o% contemporary thin?in about cities, despite bein a
condescendin and o%ten racist %antasy1 @hen entriBcation is criticied these days, it tends to be done in terms
that mudd!e the issues1 he !east use%u! way to criticie entriBcation is to obsess about an area&s character,
coo!ness, or e+en worse, *rit/1 'amentin the pro!i%eration o% cupca?es and cappuccino is a stap!e o% reportin on
p!aces !i?e @i!!iamsbur or Da!ston1 Gut this ?ind o% story reduces somethin that&s a!! about ine3ua!ity to midd!e-
c!ass aoniin o+er authenticity1It&s beyond time that po!icyma?ers, p!anners and urbanites de-
entriBed their thin?in about cities1
'in? urn: oin Dar?
*errorists aren’t going dark evidence proves
,dhikari 78 34ichard ,dhikari writer 1or *ech 5ews 0orld 6Harvard 4esearchers /e&unk0arnings o1 *errorists #oing /ark8 e&ruary % %)$: http-;;www'technewsworld'com;story;
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sur+ei!!ance and !aw en%orcement aencies ha+e been ca!!in %or an end to encryption
because they say it !ets terrorists communicate and p!an with impunity and is responsib!e %or
oin dar? -- the inabi!ity o% !aw en%orcement to monitor communications1
hatOs not true, accordin to the Ger?man Center, which notes the %o!!owin: Not a!!
companies !i?e!y wi!! adopt end-to-end encryption and other tech no!oy %or obscurin user
data because most businesses pro+idin communications ser+ices re!y on access to that
data %or re+enue streams and product %unctiona!ity , inc!udin user data reco+eryR o%tware
ecosystems are %ramented and %ar more standardiation and coordination than current!y
eists wou!d be needed to ensure that encryption becomes widespread and comprehensi+eR
Networ?ed sensors and the Internet o% hins wi!! row substantia!!y, possib!y enab!in rea!-
time interception and recordin, and, in essence, pro+idin a wor?around to encrypted
channe!sR and Metadata isnOt encrypted, and it needs to remain unencrypted in order %or
systems to operate1