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    A2: No Impact

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    Econ collapse causes nuclear warHarris and Burrows 9 - Mathew, PhD European History at Cambride,counse!or in the Nationa! Inte!!ience Counci! "NIC# and $enni%er, member o% the

    NIC&s 'on (ane Ana!ysis )nit *(e+isitin the uture: eopo!itica! E.ects o% theinancia! Crisis/ http:00www1ciaonet1or0ourna!s0tw30+42i20%5667879574;% course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed be!ie+es the %uture is

    !i?e!y to be the resu!t o% a number o% intersectin and inter!oc?in %orces1 @ith so many possib!e permutations o% outcomes, eachwith amp!e (e+isitin the uture opportunity %or unintended conse3uences, there is a rowin sense o% insecurity1 E+en so, history

    may be more instructi+e than e+er1 @hi!e we continue to be!ie+e thatthe reat Depression is not !i?e!y tobe repeated, the !essons to be drawn %rom that period inc!ude the harm%u!e.ects on =ed!in democracies and mu!tiethnic societies "thin? Centra!

    Europe in 7;26s and 7;46s# and on the sustainabi!ity o% mu!ti!atera!institutions"thin? 'eaue o% Nations in the same period#1 here is no reason to thin? that this wou!d not be true in thetwenty-Brst as much as in the twentieth century1 or that reason, the ways in which thepotentia! %or reaterconfict could grow  wou!d seem to be e+en more apt in a constant!y volatile

    economic en+ironmentas they wou!d be i% chane wou!d be steadier1 In sur+eyin those ris?s, the report stressedthe !i?e!ihood that terrorism and nonpro!i%eration wi!! remain priorities e+en as resource issues mo+e up on the internationa! aenda1

     errorism&s appea! wi!! dec!ine i% economic rowth continues in the Midd!e East and youth unemp!oyment is reduced1 or those

    terrorist roups that remain acti+e in 262

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    mi!itary1 Gui!dup o% reiona! na+a! capabi!ities cou!d !ead to increased tensions, ri+a!ries, and counterba!ancin mo+es, but it a!so wi!!

    create opportunities %or mu!tinationa! cooperation in protectin critica! sea !anes1 @ith water a!so becomin scarcer in Asia and the

    Midd!e East,cooperation to manae chanin water resources is !i?e!y to beincreasin!y diFcu!t  both within and between states in a  more dog-eat-dogworld.

    2ACCybersecurity Ad+antae

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    Military operations solve all confict so there’s

    minimal risk Kagan and O’Hanlon 7

    rederic? aan and Michae! >&Han!on, red&s a resident scho!ar at AEI, Michae! is a senior %e!!ow in %orein po!icyat Groo?ins, *he Case %or 'arer round orces/, Apri! 2J, 2669,http:00www1aei1or0B!es0266906J02J026696J2J5aan26696J2J1pd% 

    @e !i+e at a time when wars  not on!y rae in  near!y e+ery reion  but threaten to erupt  in

    many p!aces where the current re!ati+e ca!m is tenuous1 o +iew this as a strateic

    mi!itary cha!!ene %or the )nited tates is not to espouse a speciBc theory o% America&sro!e in the wor!d or a certain po!itica! phi!osophy1 uch an assessment =ows direct!y %rom thebasic bipartisan +iew o% American %orein po!icy ma?ers since @or!d @ar II that o+erseas threats must be counteredbe%ore they can direct!y threaten this country&s shores, that the basic stabi!ity o% the internationa! system is

    essentia! to American peace and prosperity, and that no country besides the U nited S tates is in a

    position to !ead the way in counterin maor cha!!enes to the !oba! order1 'et us

    hih!iht the threats and their conse3uences with a %ew concrete eamp!es,

    emphasiinthose that in+o!+e ?ey strateic reions o% the wor!d such as

    the Persian u!% and EastAsia , or ?ey potentia! threats to American security, such as the spread o% nuc!ear weapons and the

    strenthenin o% the !oba! A! Kaeda 0ihadist mo+ement1 he Iranian o+ernmenthas reected a series o% internationa! demands to ha!t its e.orts at enrichin

    uranium and submit to internationa! inspections1 @hat wi!! happen i% the )or

    Israe!io+ernment becomes con+inced that ehran is on the +ere o% Be!din anuc!ear weaponL North orea , o% course, has a!ready done so, and the ripp!e e.ects

    are beinnin to spread1 $apan&s recent e!ection to supreme power o% a !eader who has

    promised to rewrite that country&s constitution to support increased armed %orcesand, possib!y,e+en nuc!ear weapons may we!! a!ter the de!icate ba!ance o% %ear in Northeast Asia

    %undamenta!!y and rapid!y1 A!so, in the bac?round, at !east %or now, inoaiwanese tensions

    continue to =are, as do tensions between India and Pa?istan , Pa?istan and

    A%hanistan, eneue!a and the )nited tates, and so on1 Meanwhi!e, the wor!d&snoninter+ention in Dar%ur troub!es consciences %rom Europe to America&s Gib!e Ge!t to its bastions o%

    !ibera!ism, yet with no serious internationa! %orces on o.er, the b!ood!ettin wi!!  probab!y, traica!!y,

    continue unabated1 And as bad as thins are in Ira3 today, they cou!d et worse1 @hat wou!d happen i% the?ey hiite Bure, A!i a! istani, were to dieL I% another maor attac? on the sca!e o% the o!den Mos3ue bombin hit

    either side "or, perhaps, both sides at the same time#L uch deterioration miht con+ince many Americans that the

    war there tru!y was !ostbut the costs o% reachin such a conc!usion wou!d be enormous1 A%hanistan is somewhat

    more stab!e %or the moment, a!thouh a maor a!iban o.ensi+e appears to be in the oFn1 ound ) rand

    stratey must proceed %rom the reconition that, o+er the net %ew years and decades, the wor!dis oin to be a +ery unsett!ed and 3uite danerous p!ace, with A! Kaeda and its associated

    roups as a subset o% a much !arer set o% worries1 he on!y serious response to this internationa!

    en+ironment is to de+e!op armed %orces capab!e o% protectin America&s +ita!interests throuhout this danerous time1 Doing so requires a military capable of a wide

    range of missions including not only deterrence of great power conflict in dealing with potentialhotspots in Korea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Persian Gulf but also associated with a variety of

    Special orces activities and stabili!ation operations1 or today&s ) mi!itary, which a!ready ece!s at hihtechno!oy and is increasin!y %ocused on re-!earnin the !ost art o% counterinsurency, this is Brst and %oremost a

    3uestion o% Bndin the resources to Be!d a !are-enouh standin Army and Marine Corps to hand!e personne!

    intensi+e missions such as the ones now under way in Ira3 and A%hanistan1

    http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdfhttp://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf

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    Kills the economy causes nuclear meltdowns and

    nuclear war ! all cause e"tinction#uterl, eecuti+e editor cientiBc American, 77020’$%

    "red, *Armaeddon 216,/ Gu!!etin o% the Atomic cientists#

    The world lived %or ha!% a century with the constant specter of nuclear war and its potentia!!y

    devastating consequences. The end of the Cold War took the potency out of   this

     Armageddon scenario, yet the existential dangers have on!y multiplied .  Today the

    techno!oies that pose some o% the biggest problems are not  so much military  as commercia!1 They

    come from bio!oy, enery production, and the in%ormation sciences -- and are the +ery techno!oies that

    ha+e %ue!ed our prodiious rowth as a species1 hey are %ar more seducti+e than nuc!ear

    weapons, and more diFcu!t to etricate ourse!+es %rom1 he techno!oies we worry

    about today %orm the basis o  our !oba! civilization and are essential   to oursurvival  .  he mista?e many o% us ma?e about the dar?er aspects o% our hih-tech ci+i!iation is in thin?in thatwe ha+e p!enty o% time to address them1 @e may, i% weOre !uc?y1 Gut itOs more !i?e!y that we ha+e !ess time than we

    thin?1 here may be a !imited window o% opportunity %or pre+entin catastrophes such as pandemics, runaway c!imate chane, and cyber attac?s on nationa! power rids1 Emerindiseases1 he in=uena pandemic o% 266; is a case in point1 Gecause o% risin prosperity and tra+e!, the wor!d has rown more conduci+e to adestructi+e =u +irus in recent years, many pub!ic hea!th oFcia!s be!ie+e1 Most peop!e probab!y remember 266; as a time when hea!th oFcia!so+erreacted1 Gut in truth, the 266; +irus came %rom nowhere, and by the time it reached the radar screens o% hea!th oFcia!s, it was a!ready we!! on its wayto spreadin %ar and wide1 H7N7 cauht us a!! with our pants down, says =u epert (obert 1 @ebster o% t1 $ude Chi!drenOs (esearch Hospita! inMemphis, ennessee1 Ge%ore it became apparent that the +irus was a mi!d one, hea!th oFcia!s must ha+e %e!t as i% they were starin into the abyss1 I% the+irus had been as dead!y as, say, the 7;7 =u +irus or some more recent strains o% bird =u, the resu!t wou!d ha+e ri+a!ed what the p!anners o% the 7;cean, chanin the atmosphericdynamics upon which the monsoon depends -- ?eepin much o% the sunOs enery %rom reachin the sur%ace, and !essenin the power o% storms1 At thesame time, the bui!dup o% reenhouse ases -- emitted main!y %rom de+e!oped countries in the northern hemisphere -- has a +ery di.erent e.ect on theIndian summer monsoon: It ma?es it stroner1 hese two opposite in=uences ma?e the %ate o% the monsoon diFcu!t to predict and subect to instabi!ity1 Asma!! in=uence -- a bit more carbon dioide in the atmosphere, and a bit more brown hae -- cou!d ha+e an outsie e.ect1 he Indian monsoon, 'enton

    be!ie+es, cou!d be teeterin on a ?ni%eOs ede, ready to chane abrupt!y in ways that are hard to predict1 @hat happens thenL More than a bi!!ion peop!edepend on the monsoonOs rains1 >ther tippin points may be in p!ay, says 'enton1 he @est A%rican monsoon is potentia!!y near a tippin point1 o arereen!andOs !aciers, which ho!d enouh water to raise sea !e+e!s by more than 26 %eetR and the @est Antarctic Ice heet, which has enouh ice to raisesea !e+e!s by at !east 76 %eet1 (eiona! tippin points cou!d hasten the i!! e.ects o% c!imate chane more 3uic?!y than current!y proected by theIntero+ernmenta! Pane! on C!imate Chane1 Computer hac?in1 he computer industry has a!ready made it possib!e %or computers to hand!e a +ariety o%

    tas?s without human inter+ention1 Autonomous computers, usin techni3ues %ormer!y ?nown as artiBcia! inte!! ience,

    ha+e beun to eert contro! in +irtua!!y e+ery sphere o% our !i+es1 Cars, %or instance, cannow ta?e action to a+oid co!!isions1 o do this, a car has to ma?e decisions: @hen does it ta?e contro!L How muchbra?in power shou!d be app!ied, and to which whee!sL And when shou!d the car a!!ow its re=e-cha!!ened dri+er

    to reain contro!L Cars that dri+e themse!+es, current!y bein Be!d tested, cou!d hit dea!er showrooms in a %ew

    years1 Autonomous computers can ma?e our !i+es easier and sa%er, but they can a!so ma?e them

    more danerous1 A case in point is tunet, the computer worm desined by the ) and Israe! to attac?

    IranOs nuc!ear %ue! proram1 It is a watershed in the brie% history o% ma!ware -- the $ason Gourne o% computercode, desined %or maimum autonomy and e.ecti+eness1 tunetOs creators a+e their proram the best trainin

    possib!e: they stoc?ed it with detai!ed technica! ?now!ede that wou!d come in handy %or whate+er situation

    tunet cou!d concei+ab!y encounter1 A!thouh the so%tware inc!uded rende+ous procedures and communication

    codes %or reportin bac? to head3uarters, tunet was bui!t to sur+i+e and carry out its mission

    e+en i% it %ound itse!% cut o.1  he uranium centri%ues that tunet attac?ed are +ery

    simi!ar in princip!e to the enerators that power the ) e!ectrica! rid 1 Goth are monitored andcontro!!ed by prorammab!e-!oic computer chips1 tunet c!e+er!y caused the uranium centri%ues to throw

    themse!+es o.-ba!ance, in=ictin enouh damae to set the Iranian nuc!ear industry bac? by 7 months or more1 A

    simi!ar piece o% ma!ware insta!!ed on the computers that contro! the enerators at the baseo% the rand Cou!ee Dam wou!d !i?ewise cause them to sha?e, ratt!e, and ro!! -- and e+entua!!y

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    ep!ode1  I% tunet-!i?e ma!ware were to insinuate itse!% into a %ew hundred power enerators in the )nitedtates and attac? them a!! at once, the damae wou!d be enouh to cause b!ac?outs on the East and @est Coasts1

    @ith such widespread destruction, it cou!d ta?e many months to restore power tothe rid1 It seems incredib!e that this shou!d be so, but the wor!dwide capacity to manu%acture

    enerator parts is !imited1 enerators enera!!y !ast 46 years, sometimes

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    Modern society depends on strong cy&er security

    to survive'(e&astian )9 "(ohan,- research %or the oFce o% irinia enator Mar? @arner C Computer cience %rom)A, 8-2J *he edera! o+ernment&s (o!e in Preser+in Cybersecurity %or Critica! In%rastructure/#

     he intersection o% critica! in%rastructure and cyberspace has presented many cha!!enes to po!icyma?ers1 Critica!in%rastructure inc!udes areas !i?e the water and %ood supp!y, te!ecommunications ,

    nuc!ear power, transportation, ban?in, and enery---areas crucia! to the %unctionin

    o% society1 S Howe+er, remote access to critica! in%rastructure %rom cyberspace has p!acedthese systems at ris? o% destruction by other countries, ma!icious actors, or

    terrorists 1 his ana!ysis proposes three options that the %edera! o+ernment can imp!ement: strenthenin partnershipsbetween the pub!ic and pri+ate sectors, interatin resources under a @hite House oFcia!, and increasin co!!aboration between!e+e!s o% critica! in%rastructure1 A%ter scrutiniin these options under the criteria o% po!itica! %easibi!ity, industry acceptance, and

    eFcacy, this ana!ysis recommends that the %edera! o+ernment pursue a combination o% a!! three po!icy options1 Critica!

    in%rastructure inc!udes areas such as transportation, water supp!ies, pub!ic hea!th,

    te!ecommunications, enery, ban?in and Bnance, emerency and in%ormationser+ices, nuc!ear %aci!ities, %ood supp!ies, and de%ense and chemica! industries "Mote.T Par%oma?, 266J#1 Accordin to the Department o% Home!and ecurity&s Nationa! tratey %or Home!and ecurity, critica!in%rastructure consists o% *assets, systems, and networ?s, whether physica! or +irtua!, so +ita! to the )nited tates that their

    incapacitation or destruction wou!d ha+e a debi!itatin e.ect on security, nationa! economic security, pub!ic hea!th or sa%ety, or any

    combination thereo%/ "Home!and ecurity Counci!, 2669#1 iure 7 i!!ustrates the myriad o% in%rastructures and their

    interdependencies with one another1 imp!y put, critica! in%rastructures comprise the %oundation %orthe modern economy and nationa! security, so the %edera! o+ernment shares responsibi!ity %or protectinthem1 Howe+er, the o+ernment rests in a precarious position because the pri+ate sector owns about eihty

    percent o% critica! in%rastructure "orest, 2668, p1 9#1 urthermore, about eihty percent o% a!! American commerce occurs on

    pri+ate!y owned te!ecommunications networ?s, primari!y the Internet "heohary, 266;, p1 26#1 E+en the most

    +a!uab!e nationa! de%ense systems re!y on pri+ate!y owned te!ecommunications S e+era!

    o+ernment oFcia!s ha+e emphasied the catastrophic e.ects o% compromised cybersecurity1 Pau!

    urt, an ad+isor on President >bama&s transition team, warned o% a *cyber atrina,/ a catac!ysm in which

    o+ernment aencies wou!d %ai! to coordinate a%ter a cyber attac? and wou!d subsequentlycollapse "Epstein, 266;#1 S In %act, Director o% Nationa! Inte!!ience Dennis G!air stated that cyber attac?saainst Bnancia! sectors and physica! in%rastructure cou!d *se+ere!y impact the

    nationa! economy/ and disturb enery sources !i?e oi! and e!ectricity %or an indeBnite period"Annua! hreat Assessment, 266;#1 Geyond threatenin the pri+ate sector, intruders ha+e been speciBca!!y taretin the %edera!

    o+ernment&s in%ormation techno!oy in%rastructure1 A report by the Internationa! Gusiness Machines Corporation re+ea!ed that o%the 249 mi!!ion security attac?s carried out in the Brst ha!% o% 266

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    *his could collapse civili+ation',dhikari ’)9 "(ichard,- !eadin ourna!ist on ad+anced-IP issues %or se+era! maor pub!ications, inc!udin

     he @a!! treet $ourna! *Ci+i!iationOs Hih ta?es Cyber-tru!e: KTA @ith en1 @es!ey C!ar? "ret1#/#

     he con=icts in the Midd!e East and A%hanistan, to name the most prominent, are ta?in their to!! on human !i%e

    and !imb1 Howe+er, the esca!atin cybercon=ict amon nations is %ar more danerous, aruesretired enera! @es!ey C!ar?, who spo?e with echNews@or!d in an ec!usi+e inter+iew1 S11 ItOs a matter o%thousands o% probes a day, in and out, aainst systems that be!on to ob+ious tarets !i?e the )nited

    tates Department o% De%enseR not-so-ob+ious tarets !i?e ban?s and enery companiesR and

    indi+idua! consumers or tapayers1 S1 @e are, as a ci+i!iation, 3uite +u!nerab!e todisruption, and this security prob!em doesnOt ust a.ect one nation but the who!e !oba! economic in%rastructure1

     Qou canOt concei+e o% the threats %rom the point o% +iew o% a traditiona! war1 Cyber-e.orts are onoin todayR weOre

    in a cyber-stru!e today1 @e donOt ?now who the ad+ersaries are in many cases, but we ?now what the sta?es

    are: continued economic +ita!ity and, u!timate!y, !oba! ci+i!iation 1 

    ,%- #entri.cation /,0e are not the cause o1 #entri.cation

    Madden $2 "Da+id is an assistant pro%essor in the Department o% ocio!oy and the Cities Proramme at the'ondon choo! o% Economics, he uardian, >ctober 2674#

    Here&s how entriBcation ta!? typica!!y oes: poor neihborhoods are said to need *reeneration/ or *re+ita!iation/,

    as i% !i%e!essness and torpor as opposed to impo+erishment and disempowerment were the prob!em1 Ec!usion is

    rebranded as creati+e *renewa!/1 he !ibera! mission to *increase di+ersity/ is per+erse!y used as

    an ecuse to turn residents out o% their homes in p!aces !i?e Har!em or Griton areas

    %amous %or their !on histories o% independent po!itica! and cu!tura! scenes1 A%ter

    entriBcation ta?es ho!d, neihborhoods are commended %or ha+in *bounced bac?/

    %rom po+erty, inorin the %act that po+erty has usua!!y on!y been bounced e!sewhere1

    In an insidious way, the narrati+e o% *urban renaissance/ the ta!e o% heroic e!ites redeemin a city that had been!ost to the danerous c!asses permeates a !ot o% contemporary thin?in about cities, despite bein a

    condescendin and o%ten racist %antasy1 @hen entriBcation is criticied these days, it tends to be done in terms

    that mudd!e the issues1 he !east use%u! way to criticie entriBcation is to obsess about an area&s character,

    coo!ness, or e+en worse, *rit/1 'amentin the pro!i%eration o% cupca?es and cappuccino is a stap!e o% reportin on

    p!aces !i?e @i!!iamsbur or Da!ston1 Gut this ?ind o% story reduces somethin that&s a!! about ine3ua!ity to midd!e-

    c!ass aoniin o+er authenticity1It&s beyond time that po!icyma?ers, p!anners and urbanites de-

    entriBed their thin?in about cities1

    'in? urn: oin Dar?

    *errorists aren’t going dark evidence proves

    ,dhikari  78 34ichard ,dhikari writer 1or *ech 5ews 0orld 6Harvard 4esearchers /e&unk0arnings o1 *errorists #oing /ark8 e&ruary % %)$: http-;;www'technewsworld'com;story;

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    sur+ei!!ance and !aw en%orcement aencies ha+e been ca!!in %or an end to encryption

    because they say it !ets terrorists communicate and p!an with impunity and is responsib!e %or

    oin dar? -- the inabi!ity o% !aw en%orcement to monitor communications1

     hatOs not true, accordin to the Ger?man Center, which notes the %o!!owin: Not a!!

    companies !i?e!y wi!! adopt end-to-end encryption and other tech no!oy %or obscurin user

    data because most businesses pro+idin communications ser+ices re!y on access to that

    data %or re+enue streams and product %unctiona!ity , inc!udin user data reco+eryR o%tware

    ecosystems are %ramented and %ar more standardiation and coordination than current!y

    eists wou!d be needed to ensure that encryption becomes widespread and comprehensi+eR

    Networ?ed sensors and the Internet o% hins wi!! row substantia!!y, possib!y enab!in rea!-

    time interception and recordin, and, in essence, pro+idin a wor?around to encrypted

    channe!sR and Metadata isnOt encrypted, and it needs to remain unencrypted in order %or

    systems to operate1