Back to the Future: The Return of U.S. Sanctions, …parhami/pres_folder/bava19...2010 --CISADA 2011...
Transcript of Back to the Future: The Return of U.S. Sanctions, …parhami/pres_folder/bava19...2010 --CISADA 2011...
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Back to the Future:The Return of U.S. Sanctions, their Economic Impact,
and Iran’s Response
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Contents
1. What are economic sanctions?
Success / failure factors
2. History of economic sanctions against Iran / JCPOA
3. US reinstatement of sanctions in Nov 2018
4. Impact of Sanctions
5. Iran’s potential response
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What are economic sanctions?
“Economic sanctions are the deliberate government-inspired withdrawal, or threat of withdrawal, of customary trade or financial relations.”*
U.S. Sanctions apply to all persons subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S.
US Person
US citizen or permanent resident wherever located
Anyone physically present in the US
US corporations, partnerships, associations, including their non-US branches
Also covers activities of non-US persons
*Hufbauer
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Key message of economic sanctions
To target country:
We do not approve of your actions
To allies:
We mean what we say
To domestic audiences:
We are protecting our nation’s interests and our values
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Economic Sanctions
Types of Sanctions:
Export Import Financial Loans, Banking
Asset Freeze
Primary sanctions Secondary sanctions
Goals of Sanctions:
Deterrence
Asserting leadership
Regime change
Compensation for nationalized property
Domestic political support
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Primary Sanctions
Prohibits “US persons” from conducting any business transactions with Iran
U.S. IRAN
Example: US oil and banking sanctions against Iran
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Secondary Sanctions
7
Warns “third parties” to stop commercial dealings with Iran or lose the commercial relationship with US entities.
U.S. IRAN
Third Parties
Example: Secondary Sanctions warned financial institutions in other countries: either stop transactions with Iran or lose access to the US financial system.
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Economic sanctions: Success Factors
Economic size and trade size
Type and combination of sanctions used“Carrot and Stick”
International support
Duration of sanctions
Target country’s:• Government--democracy or autocracy• Economic health and political stability
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Economic Sanctions: Failure Factors
Sanctions:
may unify the target country behind their leadership
May prompt adversaries to assume the role of “savior” and support the target country
May alienate allies and certain domestic businesses
may not be adequate
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History of Iran Sanctions: A SummaryUS Sanctions: 1979 –Hostage crisis
1984 –Support for Hezbollah
1992 –Weapons development
1995 –Trade
2001 –Asset freezes/travel bans
2007 –IRGC for destabiizing Iraq
2009 –IRGC for human rights violations
2010 --CISADA
2011 –IRGC for interfering in Syria
2012 –Obama’s Executive Orders • Leveraged CISADA* and expanded
sanctions
• Oil and petrochemicals
• Technology
• Blocked Iran’s access to international financial system
* CISADA: Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010
UN Sanctions:
2006-2008 --Noncompliant with IAEA nuclear safeguards; embargo on nuclear-related materials; blocked financial assistance
2010 – UN Security Council Resolution 1929 supported by all allies, Russia and China
--Oil restrictions; banking (CBI) and financial sector
EU Sanctions:
2007 –Asset Freeze for Nuclear and missiles production
2010 –financial/banking; trade
2012 –Oil/petrochemical imports; shipping insurance; CBI asset freeze
CBI: Central Bank of Iran
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Economic sanctions will be more effective if target country is dependent on industrial imports and has no strategic exports
STRATEGIC EXPORTS
DEPENDENCEon IMPORTS
Little Effective
Highly Effective
Little Effective
?High
Low
Low High
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Effectiveness of economic sanctions: a few examples
STRATEGIC EXPORTS
DEPENDENCEon IMPORTS
China
Liberia IRAN
NorthKorea
Little Effective
Highly Effective
Little Effective
High
Low
Low High
1979-2010 Somewhat effective 2012-2015 Highly effective
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Advancement of science and technology, self sufficiency, and production of strategic goods create more immunity to economic sanctions
STRATEGIC EXPORTS
DEPENDENCEon IMPORTS
China
Liberia IRAN
NorthKorea
Little Effective
Highly Effective
Little Effective
High
Low
Low High
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Iran Nuclear Deal
Also known as Joint comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
A product of sanctions and intense diplomacy
Made Iran compliant in nuclear area
Group of 5 + 1 allowed Iran to once again trade oil internationally
Made sanctions subject to snapback for 10 years
Sanctions remaining:
Ballistic missiles
Support for US-designated terrorist groups
Human rights
Financial transactions restrictions
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Factors that made 2012-2015 Iran Sanctions very effective
Trade
Oil Petrochemicals
Dual Purpose Exports
Secondary Sanctions
ShippingInsurance
International Financial Transactions
Multilateral: US, UN, Group of 5+1Effective
Somewhat Effective
Little Effective
Legend:
One other key factor that, in conjunction with sanctions, led to JCPOA Agreement was intensive diplomacy between Iran and the other parties, especially the United States.
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President Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from JCPOA has somewhat reduced effectiveness of US sanctions against Iran
Trade
Oil/Petrochemicals Dual Purpose Exports
Secondary SanctionsShipping Insurance
International Financial Transactions
Effective
Somewhat Effective
Little Effective
Legend:
Unlike JCPOA, what seems to be absent from the 2018 reinstatement of sanctions is lack of ongoing dialogue between the United States and Iran.
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2012 vs. 2018: Is Iran in a better position to weather sanctions?
2012
• Popular policies/Subsidy
• Unemployment 14%
• Inflation 30%
• Foreign exchange Reserves $110B
2018 • Reformist policies
• Subsidized food prices
• Unemployment 11%
• Inflation 10% - 30%
• Foreign exchange Reserves $130B
• More Support for domestic products
• Increased non-oil exports
• Willingness to implement banking reforms
• Refine oil products domestically
• Greater unity
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Despite a weaker impact, reinstatement of US sanctions will still take a heavy toll on Iran’s economy
OPPORTUNITIES
CHALLENGES
Exporters Loss of Market
Share
Lower Gov
Spending
InflationNegative GrowthUnemployment
Uncertainty/Lower
Investment
Technologiyknowledge Exchange
Poverty Inequality
Increased Innovation
Import Substitution
Black Market/High
Costs
Intern’lPayments
Indirect Impacts:
Direct Impacts:
Depreciated Currency
High Interest
Rates
Other Impacts:Negative Impact
Positive Impact
Legend:
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2012-2015 Economic Sanctions
2012-2015 economic experience may provide insights into what Iran should expect under Trump’s sanctions
Source: World Bank, Fall 2018
2012-2015 economic sanctions contributed to increased poverty rate and more inequality
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2012-2015 Economic Sanctions
Poverty rates varied across provinces, with Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman and Golestan experiencing the highest poverty rates (32%)
Source: World Bank, Fall 2018
Tehran, Qom and Alborz experienced the lowest poverty rates (2%)
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F012-2016 Economic Sanctions
Groups most affected by poverty
Households:• with more children• headed by younger adults• With head of household unemployed
Provinces with less urban population• Impact more severe for rural households • 18% of rural population with an employed head of
household below poverty line
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Rouhani’s strategy to counter US economic sanctions
Resistance Economy
Oil export to eight exempted countries
Accelerate bank reforms and FATF compliance
Austerity measures
Leverage EU’s Special Purpose Vehicle
Subsidize basic food prices
Use foreign exchange reserves wisely
Support science and technology R&D
Increase non-oil exports by:
• providing support for technology-oriented exports
• leveraging Iran Expo to promote Iranian products
• Use small- and medium-sized firms for trade
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January 5, 2019
23
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Are the benefits of economic sanctions worth the cost?
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References (1)
Economic sanctions reconsidered, Hufbauer, Gary Clyde.; Schott, Jeffrey J., 1949-; Elliott, Kimberly Ann, 1960-; Institute for International Economics (U.S.), Washington, D.C. : Institute for International Economics; 1990
Economic sanctions reconsidered, Hufbauer, Gary Clyde.Washington, DC : Peterson Institute for International Economics; 2007
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Multilateral Versus Unilateral Sanctions Reconsidered: A Test Using New Data, Bapat, NavinA. (University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill); Morgan, T. Clifton (Rice University), Harvard Dataverse; 2018
Busted Sanctions Explaining Why Economic Sanctions Fail, Early, Bryan.Palo Alto : Stanford University Press; 2015
IMF Country Report No. 18/94, Islamic Republic of Iran, Selected Issues, March 2018
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The Long-term Impact of Economic Sanctions on the Technological Development of Iran, Hussein Fakhari in the Book “Development of Science and Technology in Iran”, edited by Abdol soofi and Mehdi, Goodarzi, 2017
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