Back to the Future Part II - FAMA...Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of FEMSA/FAMA Raging&Bull&...

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.

October 2nd, 2014

Back to the Future Part II

On Behalf of

FEMSA/FAMA

Raging Bull (1980)

Es2mated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2014 Projected*

2.4% 1.3%

2.0% 3.1%

5.4% 7.4%

6.4% 0.2%

2.8% 5.4%

4.7% 1.7%

2.2% 3.2%

1.6% 1.2%

0.3% 1.9%

0.7% 1.1%

1.8%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Mexico

Brazil Latin America and Caribbean

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan India** China

Developing Asia Russia

Central/eastern Europe Sub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countries United States

Canada United Kingdom

Japan Spain

Italy Germany

France Euro area

Advanced economies

Annual % Change Source: International Monetary Fund, July 2014 WEO Update

*The IMF’s global and regional growth figures for 2014 are based on new purchasing power parity (PPP) weights derived from the recently released 2011 International Comparison Program survey (see box) and are not comparable to the 2013 figures reported in the April 2014 WEO **For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 5.4 percent for 2014.

Debt by Selected Country 2013 Es2mates*

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0

Saudi Arabia Russia China

Indonesia South Africa

Mexico Argentina

Brazil India

Germany Canada

United Kingdom France Spain

United States Italy Japan

General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP

*IMF Staff Estimates

Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2014 WEO

Rank Exchange Index % Change

4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 56.7% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 38.3% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.5% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 25.5% 8 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 21.4%

12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 20.2% 5 Euronext CAC 40 18.0%

10 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 16.6% 3 London SE FTSE 100 12.0% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 9.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 2.9% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -6.8%

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth*

Source: Yahoo! Finance

*Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.

S&P Select Sector Performance 12-‐Month Percent Change as of September 26, 2014

Source: Standard & Poor’s

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Telecommunication Services

Energy

Consumer Discretionary

Utilities

Consumer Staples

Industrials

Financials

Materials

Information Technology

Health Care

6.0%

9.8%

10.9%

11.0%

11.5%

13.3%

15.7%

18.0%

25.5%

27.0%

12-‐month percent change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008 – September 2014*

Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 index depicted in orange

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

May-‐08

Jul-‐08

Se

p-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Jan-‐09

Mar-‐09

May-‐09

Jul-‐09

Se

p-‐09

Nov

-‐09

Jan-‐10

Mar-‐10

May-‐10

Jul-‐10

Sep-‐10

Nov

-‐10

Jan-‐11

Mar-‐11

May-‐11

Jul-‐11

Sep-‐11

Nov

-‐11

Jan-‐12

Mar-‐12

May-‐12

Jul-‐12

Sep-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Jan-‐13

Mar-‐13

May-‐13

Jul-‐13

Sep-‐13

Nov

-‐13

Jan-‐14

Mar-‐14

May-‐14

Jul-‐14

Sep-‐14

S&P 500 FRB Credit Reserve $Trillions

*Through 9/24/2014

Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corpora2ons Earnings per Share

Symbol Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Estimated

Q2 2014 Reported Surprise Symbol Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Estimated Q2 2014 Reported Surprise

CMG $2.82 $3.09 $3.50 $0.41 BTU $0.33 -‐$0.29 -‐$0.28 $0.01 COF $1.87 $1.82 $2.04 $0.22 DD $1.28 $1.17 $1.17 $0.00 UTX $1.70 $1.71 $1.84 $0.13 GE $0.36 $0.39 $0.39 $0.00 FCX $0.22 $0.51 $0.58 $0.07 MMM $1.71 $1.91 $1.91 $0.00 COH $0.89 $0.53 $0.59 $0.06 AMD -‐$0.09 $0.03 $0.02 -‐$0.01 TXN $0.58 $0.59 $0.62 $0.03 YHOO $0.35 $0.38 $0.37 -‐$0.01 DOW $0.64 $0.72 $0.74 $0.02 STI $0.68 $0.76 $0.72 -‐$0.04 HON $1.28 $1.36 $1.38 $0.02 UPS $1.13 $1.25 $1.21 -‐$0.04 VFC $0.32 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01 MCD $1.38 $1.44 $1.40 -‐$0.04 XRX $0.27 $0.26 $0.27 $0.01 MSFT $0.66 $0.60 $0.55 -‐$0.05 VZ $0.73 $0.90 $0.91 $0.01 CAT $1.45 $1.53 $1.69 -‐$0.16

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Jobs -‐0.7%

Incomes 2.7%

Profits 49.2%

Housing -‐10.5%

Stocks 25.9%

-‐60%

-‐40%

-‐20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percen

t cha

nge sinc

e en

d of 200

7

Top Gun (1986) Profits out of the Danger Zone

Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance

The Golden Child (1986) Highest Earning Hedge Fund Managers, 2013

Source: Forbes

Manager Hedge Fund Firm 2013 Earnings Net Return

George Soros Soros Fund Management $4 billion 22%

David Tepper Appaloosa Management $3.5 billion 42%

Steve Cohen SAC Capital Advisors $2.3 billion 19%

John Paulson Paulson Enhanced $1.9 billion 26%

Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises $1.7 billion 31%

James Simons Renaissance Technologies $1.1 billion 18%

Ray Dalio Bridgewater Associates $900 million 5.25%

Ken Griffin Citadel $900 million 19.25%

Larry Robbins Glenview Capital $750 million 43%

Leon Cooperman Omega $730 million 25%

2013 S&P 500: +29.6%

Airplane! (1980) David Tepper’s Move against the Market

Source: Forbes, Bloomberg

2013 Appaloosa Management: +$3.5 billion (42%)

“Our big play versus the market is airlines. That’s a big play. We’re the biggest holder of all these different airlines. No hedge fund owned as many airlines as we did and not too many people did. Delta, UAL, LCC, US Air, AMR. We owned big percentages in all those stocks. And you know what, they did pretty good… pretty freaking good.” -‐David Tepper

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Median Weekly Earnings, Full-‐Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q2 through 2014Q2

*SA, Constant 1982-‐1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-‐U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+

$320

$325

$330

$335

$340

$345

$350

2000

Q2

2000

Q4

2001Q2

2001Q4

2002

Q2

2002

Q4

2003

Q2

2003

Q4

2004

Q2

2004

Q4

2005

Q2

2005

Q4

2006

Q2

2006

Q4

2007

Q2

2007

Q4

2008

Q2

2008

Q4

2009

Q2

2009

Q4

2010Q2

2010Q4

2011Q

2 20

11Q4

2012Q2

2012Q4

2013Q2

2013Q4

2014Q2

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession Watch as of July 2014

Industrial Produc2on January 2001 through August 2014

Source: Federal Reserve

The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan-‐01

Jul-‐01

Jan-‐02

Jul-‐02

Jan-‐03

Jul-‐03

Jan-‐04

Jul-‐04

Jan-‐05

Jul-‐05

Jan-‐06

Jul-‐06

Jan-‐07

Jul-‐07

Jan-‐08

Jul-‐08

Jan-‐09

Jul-‐09

Jan-‐10

Jul-‐10

Jan-‐11

Jul-‐11

Jan-‐12

Jul-‐12

Jan-‐13

Jul-‐13

Jan-‐14

Jul-‐14

Inde

x (200

7 = 100)

(Base year: 2007)

Gross Domes2c Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q2

-‐10%

-‐8%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Per

cent

Cha

nge from

Pre

ceding

Per

iod (SAAR)

2014Q2: +4.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Contribu2ons to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q2 – 2014Q2

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-‐3.0

-‐2.0

-‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Personal Consumption

Government Spending

Net Exports Gross Investment

1.2

0.0

-‐0.5

1.0 1.4

0.0

0.6

2.5 2.5

-‐0.7

1.1

0.6 0.8

-‐0.2

-‐1.7 -‐1.1

1.8

0.3

-‐0.3

2.9

SAAR (%

)

Q2-‐13 Q3-‐13 Q4-‐13 Q1-‐14 Q2-‐14

Ordinary People (1980)

-‐1000

-‐800

-‐600

-‐400

-‐200

0

200

400

600 Jan-‐02

Jun-‐02

Nov

-‐02

Apr-‐03

Sep-‐03

Fe

b-‐04

Jul-‐04

Dec-‐04

May-‐05

Oct-‐05

Mar-‐06

Aug

-‐06

Jan-‐07

Jun-‐07

Nov

-‐07

Apr-‐08

Sep-‐08

Fe

b-‐09

Jul-‐09

Dec-‐09

May-‐10

Oct-‐10

Mar-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Jan-‐12

Jun-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Apr-‐13

Sep-‐13

Feb-‐14

Jul-‐14

Thou

sand

s


August 2014: +142K

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through August 2014

Na2onal Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2013 v. August 2014

-2

44

46

48

66

168

232

345

367

529

639

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Information

Government

Other Services

Mining and Logging

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure and Hospitality

Education and Health Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

Thousands, SA

All told 2,482K Jobs gained


U.S. Year-‐over-‐year Percent Change: 1.8%

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2013 v. August 2014 Percent Change

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.4 18 MISSOURI 1.8 35 KANSAS 0.8 2 NEVADA 3.5 18 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.8 35 PENNSYLVANIA 0.8 2 TEXAS 3.5 20 MASSACHUSETTS 1.6 37 ILLINOIS 0.7 2 UTAH 3.5 20 MINNESOTA 1.6 37 MICHIGAN 0.7 5 FLORIDA 2.8 20 WISCONSIN 1.6 37 MISSISSIPPI 0.7 6 DELAWARE 2.7 23 ARKANSAS 1.5 37 NEW MEXICO 0.7 6 OREGON 2.7 23 LOUISIANA 1.5 37 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.7 8 NORTH CAROLINA 2.4 25 KENTUCKY 1.3 42 NEBRASKA 0.6 9 COLORADO 2.3 25 MAINE 1.3 43 IDAHO 0.5

10 GEORGIA 2.2 27 IOWA 1.2 43 VIRGINIA 0.5 11 CALIFORNIA 2.1 27 NEW YORK 1.2 45 MARYLAND 0.4 11 TENNESSEE 2.1 27 RHODE ISLAND 1.2 45 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.4 11 WASHINGTON 2.1 27 WYOMING 1.2 45 VERMONT 0.4 14 ARIZONA 2.0 31 ALABAMA 1.1 48 CONNECTICUT 0.3 14 INDIANA 2.0 31 HAWAII 1.1 48 OHIO 0.3 14 OKLAHOMA 2.0 31 WEST VIRGINIA 1.1 50 NEW JERSEY 0.1 17 MONTANA 1.9 34 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.0 51 ALASKA -0.8


U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.1%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) August 2014 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.8 17 VIRGINIA 5.6 33 WEST VIRGINIA 6.6 2 NEBRASKA 3.6 17 WASHINGTON 5.6 36 ILLINOIS 6.7 2 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.6 17 WISCONSIN 5.6 36 NEW MEXICO 6.7 2 UTAH 3.6 21 OHIO 5.7 38 ALASKA 6.8 5 VERMONT 4.1 22 INDIANA 5.8 38 NORTH CAROLINA 6.8 6 HAWAII 4.3 22 LOUISIANA 5.8 40 ALABAMA 6.9 6 MINNESOTA 4.3 22 MASSACHUSETTS 5.8 41 ARIZONA 7.1 8 NEW HAMPSHIRE 4.4 22 PENNSYLVANIA 5.8 41 KENTUCKY 7.1 9 IOWA 4.5 26 ARKANSAS 6.3 43 OREGON 7.2

10 WYOMING 4.6 26 FLORIDA 6.3 44 CALIFORNIA 7.4 11 IDAHO 4.7 26 MISSOURI 6.3 44 MICHIGAN 7.4 11 MONTANA 4.7 29 MARYLAND 6.4 44 TENNESSEE 7.4 11 OKLAHOMA 4.7 29 NEW YORK 6.4 47 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.6 14 KANSAS 4.9 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.4 47 NEVADA 7.6 15 COLORADO 5.1 32 DELAWARE 6.5 49 RHODE ISLAND 7.7 16 TEXAS 5.3 33 CONNECTICUT 6.6 50 MISSISSIPPI 7.9 17 MAINE 5.6 33 NEW JERSEY 6.6 51 GEORGIA 8.1


Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) August 2014

Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR

1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.8 9

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3

2 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 12

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6

3 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 12 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6

3 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 14

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7

5 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 5.5 15

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8

5 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 16

Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0

7 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 17

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.7

8 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 18

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.9

9 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 19

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.0

9 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 20

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7


Firefighters: Occupa2onal Outlook


•  Employment for firefighters is projected to grow 7% from 2012-‐2022, slower than the average for all occupations (11%) (WRONG, WRONG, WRONG);

•  As population ages, demand for firefighters will increase

•  2/3 of situations that firefighters respond to are medical

•  Volunteer positions will be converted to paid positions in

areas where population growth creates a need for a full-‐time workforce

Volunteers Tough to Find


•  Volunteers have dropped from 300,000 to 50,000 over past 30 years

•  Training costs have increased •  Businesses increasingly reluctant to allow employees to volunteer

•  Single-‐Income families no longer commonplace

Field of Dreams (1989)

15-‐Year & 30-‐Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through September 2014*

Source: Freddie Mac

3.36%

4.20%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Feb-‐95

Aug

-‐95

Feb-‐96

Aug

-‐96

Feb-‐97

Aug

-‐97

Feb-‐98

Aug

-‐98

Feb-‐99

Aug

-‐99

Feb-‐00

Aug

-‐00

Feb-‐01

Aug

-‐01

Feb-‐02

Aug

-‐02

Feb-‐03

Aug

-‐03

Feb-‐04

Aug

-‐04

Feb-‐05

Aug

-‐05

Feb-‐06

Aug

-‐06

Feb-‐07

Aug

-‐07

Feb-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Feb-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Feb-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Feb-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Feb-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Feb-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Feb-‐14

Aug

-‐14

Rate

15-‐yr 30-‐yr

*Week ending 9/25/2014

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through August 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

August 2014 504K

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through August 2014


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Jan-‐99

Jul-‐99

Jan-‐00

Jul-‐00

Jan-‐01

Jul-‐01

Jan-‐02

Jul-‐02

Jan-‐03

Jul-‐03

Jan-‐04

Jul-‐04

Jan-‐05

Jul-‐05

Jan-‐06

Jul-‐06

Jan-‐07

Jul-‐07

Jan-‐08

Jul-‐08

Jan-‐09

Jul-‐09

Jan-‐10

Jul-‐10

Jan-‐11

Jul-‐11

Jan-‐12

Jul-‐12

Jan-‐13

Jul-‐13

Jan-‐14

Jul-‐14

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

1 Unit 5 units or more

August 2014: 1 Unit: 643K 5 Units or more: 304K

U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through August 2014


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Jan-‐99

Jul-‐99

Jan-‐00

Jul-‐00

Jan-‐01

Jul-‐01

Jan-‐02

Jul-‐02

Jan-‐03

Jul-‐03

Jan-‐04

Jul-‐04

Jan-‐05

Jul-‐05

Jan-‐06

Jul-‐06

Jan-‐07

Jul-‐07

Jan-‐08

Jul-‐08

Jan-‐09

Jul-‐09

Jan-‐10

Jul-‐10

Jan-‐11

Jul-‐11

Jan-‐12

Jul-‐12

Jan-‐13

Jul-‐13

Jan-‐14

Jul-‐14

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

1 Unit 5 units or more

August 2014: 1 Unit: 626K 5 Units or more: 343K

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

3.8% 3.8% 4.0%

5.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8%

7.4% 8.4%

9.0%

10.3% 11.0%

12.8%

12-‐M

onth %

Cha

nge

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros July 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

The Shining (1980)

September-‐14 86.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005

20

07

Feb-‐08

Apr-‐08

Jun-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Oct-‐08

Dec-‐08

Feb-‐09

Apr-‐09

Jun-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Oct-‐09

Dec-‐09

Feb-‐10

Apr-‐10

Jun-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Oct-‐10

Dec-‐10

Feb-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jun-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Oct-‐11

Dec-‐11

Feb-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jun-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Oct-‐12

Dec-‐12

Feb-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jun-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Oct-‐13

Dec-‐13

Feb-‐14

Apr-‐14

Jun-‐14

Aug

-‐14

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 – September 2014

Source: Conference Board

U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2001 through August 2014


-‐15.0%

-‐10.0%

-‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0% Jan-‐01

Jul-‐01

Jan-‐02

Jul-‐02

Jan-‐03

Jul-‐03

Jan-‐04

Jul-‐04

Jan-‐05

Jul-‐05

Jan-‐06

Jul-‐06

Jan-‐07

Jul-‐07

Jan-‐08

Jul-‐08

Jan-‐09

Jul-‐09

Jan-‐10

Jul-‐10

Jan-‐11

Jul-‐11

Jan-‐12

Jul-‐12

Jan-‐13

Jul-‐13

Jan-‐14

Jul-‐14

August 2014: 5.0%

Year to

Yea

r % cha

nge

-‐0.8%

1.7%

1.9%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

4.8%

6.7%

7.1%

7.1%

8.1%

8.9%

-‐5.0% -‐3.0% -‐1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0%

Gasoline Stations

Electronics & Appliance Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Furniture & Home Furn. Stores

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Food & Beverage Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores

Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers

Internet, etc. Retailers

Food Services & Drinking Places

Health & Personal Care Stores

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

12-‐month % change

Sales Growth by Type of Business August 2013 v. August 2014*


*August 2014 advanced estimate

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through August 2014

Source: Conference Board

-‐1.5%

-‐1.0%

-‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5% Aug

-‐07

Nov

-‐07

Feb-‐08

May-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Feb-‐09

May-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Nov

-‐09

Feb-‐10

May-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Nov

-‐10

Feb-‐11

May-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Nov

-‐11

Feb-‐12

May-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Feb-‐13

May-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Nov

-‐13

Feb-‐14

May-‐14

Aug

-‐14

One

-‐mon

th Per

cent

Cha

nge

August 2014 = 103.8 where 2004=100

Coming to America (1988) •  Economy gained momentum over the course of last year;

•  Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos;

•  The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps;

•  The world is not perfect -‐ black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;

•  Healthcare reform could slow full-‐time hiring over the course of the year; and

•  Regions with rapid population growth and/or significant import/export activity, industrial output and energy production will lead the way.

Thank You � Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup � You can always reach me at [email protected]

� Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com.

� Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)

� Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

Back to the Future Part II - FAMA...Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of FEMSA/FAMA Raging&Bull&...

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