Back to the Country of the Future
42
Back to the Country of the Future: Forecasts, European Crisis and the New Middle Class in Brazil (with special reference to women) Coordination: Marcelo Neri
Transcript of Back to the Country of the Future
Back to the Country of the Future:
Forecasts, European Crisis and the New Middle Classin Brazil (with special reference to women)
Coordination: Marcelo Neri
Executive Summary: Outline• Chronicle of a New Foretold Crisis
– New Year, New Crisis? (The W of the Question)– After the Crisis (a Tsunamy or a ripple?)– Is the Brazilian Inequality in its lowest historical level?
• The Future of the Brazilian New Middle Class– Measures of Polarization and Conceptualization of the Middle Class– Class Scenarios for 2014– The Great Decade (2004 to 2014)
• Life Satisfaction Expectation– The Country of the Future– The Collective of Brazilian
• Are Women more Optimistic than Men?– Female´s Future Felicity: The Biggest in the World– The Future of Women (Women of the Future)
2,7
%
0,5
%
4,6
%
6,1
%
6,0
%
4,0
%
3,3
%
0,9
%
0,5
%
0,5
%
2,0
% 2,7
%
Renda Média
mai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 jun10 a jun11 jul10 a jul11
ago10 a ago11 set10 a set11 out10 a out11 nov10 a nov11 dez10 a dez11 jan11 a jan12
Average Income
Per Capita Income Changes over previous 12 Month
Source: CPS/FGV from the PME/IBGE microdata
All the major inflections of the income distribution over the last 20 years wereantecipated by PME www.fgv.br/cps/debatesocial Growth slows in the end of the year: post-new crisis but also high initial basis in 2010 due to presidential election bussiness cycle and to the resumption from the previouscrisis. Growth accelerates again from October onwards until al least January 2012
2,7
%
-1,5
%
-7,5
%
0,5
%
0,3
% 2,1
%4,6
%
-1,9
%
-8,8
%
6,1
%
-1,2
%
-11
,7%
2,7
%
-2,1
%
-7,9
%
Renda Média Gini Pobreza
mai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 jan11 a jan12
PovertyAverage Income
Recent Evolution
Source: CPS/FGV from the PME/IBGE microdata
The combination of Growth and inequality fall lead to a fall in poverty.
Chronicle of the Crisis (until January 2012)• The european crisis hasn’t reached the pocket of the
Brazilians at least not those in the basis of the distribution.
• Growth of per capita household income of 2,7% in 12 meses, matching with the growth from 2002-08 andsuperior to the 0% produced in 2009 as a result of the 2008 crisis and the -4,57% from the Asian+ Russian crisis (end of1990s).
• In 12 months ended in January 2012 poverty falls 7,9%, three times faster than the UN Millenium Goal.
• In the 12 months ended in January 2012 the Gini falls at a 2,1%, rate almost 50% faster than the one from the firstyears of the last decade, which became known as theperiod of the fall of inequality,.
0,5367
0,58280,5902
0,6091
0,5957
0,54480,5377
0,5190
0,46
0,48
0,5
0,52
0,54
0,56
0,58
0,6
0,62
1960# 1970 1979 1990 2001 2009 2010* 2012 Jan*
Long-term Vision – The Minimum of Brazilian Inequality
Source: CPS/FGV from microdata the PNAD (September), PME e Censo / IBGE e Langoni 1973.
obs: PNAD adjusted by # Census e *PME.
The Brazilian Gini falls from 0.596 in 2001 to 0.519 in Janeiro 2012,almost 3.3% lower than its minimal historical level since 1960.
Evolution of Different Income Groups(50%-, 40% e 10%+) Share in Income
12
.16
%
12
.09
%
10
.56
%
12
.12
%
12
.35
%
12
.16
%
36
.41
%
39
.52
%
38
.47
%
39
.28
%
40
.11
%
40
.52
%
51
.43
%
48
.40
%
50
.97
%
48
.60
%
47
.54
%
47
.32
%
1976 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997
50 - 40 10 +1
2.6
5%
12
.55
%
13
.19
%
14
.10
%
14
.74
%
15
.39
%
40
.30
%
40
.20
%
40
.72
%
40
.78
%
41
.65
%
41
.78
%
47
.05
%
47
.25
%
46
.09
%
45
.12
%
43
.61
%
42
.83
%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
50 - 40 10 +
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Polarization and Inequality: Parallels
0.2
5
0.2
6
0.2
6
0.2
7
0.2
6
0.2
6
0.2
6
0.2
6
0.2
6
0.2
5
0.2
5
0.2
5
0.2
4
0.2
4
0.2
3
0.2
3
0.5
8
0.6
1
0.6
0
0.6
0
0.6
0
0.6
0
0.5
9
0.6
0
0.5
9
0.5
8
0.5
7
0.5
7
0.5
6
0.5
6
0.5
5
0.5
4
0.5400.5480.5560.5640.5720.5800.5880.5960.6040.612
0.2300
0.2350
0.2400
0.2450
0.2500
0.2550
0.2600
0.2650
0.2700
19
92
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
PER
Gini
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Inequality in Per Capita Familiar IncomePOF and PNAD are Very Similar
048
12162024283236404448525660646872768084889296
1001 4 7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
10
0
Re
nd
a
População
PNAD 2002-2003
POF 2002-2003
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
As the difference resumes into the means and our classes were defined by the relative
distribution, we just need to multiply the values of the PNAD by the POF factor,
mantaining the same proportions in each class.
Measures of Polarization andConceptualization of Middle Class
• The EGR strategy generates brackets of income classes of theincome distribution observed in practice. The brackets chosenwere the ones which better distinguish the 3 groups in a sense that they select the lowest possible differences insidethem and on the other hand maximize the differencesbetween groups. We initially calculated the brackets ofincome for the case of 3 segments (AB, C e DE) .
• We made an adjustment in the brackets of classes by the POF, which is the most complete in capturing different incomesources, but without changing the percentages themselves.
Definição das Classes Econômicas
limites
Inferior Superior
Classe E 0 1085
Classe D 1085 1734
Classe C 1734 7475
Classe B 7475 9745
Classe A 9745
* ajustado pela POF
** atualizado a preços de julho de 2011
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Classes and Total Household Income (calculated by per capita terms)
Definition of Economic Classes
Limits
Class EClass DClass CClass BClass A
*Adjusted by POF**Updated to July 2011 Prices
Classes Scenarios until 2014 Per Capita Familiar Income (R$) by State of the Federation
Income Levels in 2009 Income Variation 2001 a 2009
Menos de 10%
de 10% a 20%
de 20% a 30%
de 30% a 40%
Mais de 40%
Aumento Acumulado da RendaFamiliar Per Capita - 2001-2009
Renda Per Capita Média 2009
226.72 - 609.15
609.15 - 991.58
991.58 - 1374.01
1374.01 - 1756.44
1756.44 - 2138.87
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Evolution of the Mean Per Capita Household Income by UFs1993, 1995, 2003, 2009 e 2014
1993
1995
2003
2009 2014
Renda Per Capita Média 1993
226.717 - 609.15
609.15 - 991.58
991.58 - 1374.01
1374.01 - 1756.44
1756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 1995
226.72 - 609.15
609.15 - 991.58
991.58 - 1374.01
1374.01 - 1756.44
1756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 2003
226.72 - 609.15
609.15 - 991.58
991.58 - 1374.01
1347.01 - 1756.44
1756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 2009
226.72 - 609.15
609.15 - 991.58
991.58 - 1374.01
1374.01 - 1756.44
1756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 2014
226.74 - 609.15
609.15 - 991.58
991.58 - 1374.01
1374.01 - 1756.44
1756.44 - 2138.87
25
1,0
1
26
5,2
9
28
6,0
8
31
6,4
1
33
5,3
1
35
9,8
7
37
5,0
0
45
4,7
7
48
5,5
3
52
0,0
0
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
450,00
500,00
550,00
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Median Per Capita Household Income
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Future Scenarios
47
7,8
9
49
2,4
5
52
4,7
4
57
2,6
8
58
5,5
0
61
7,6
5
63
0,2
5
72
9,2
2
76
6,2
5
80
5,5
4
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Mean per Capita Household Income
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Future Scenarios
Looking to the future is also to review expectations over time. We superestimated themean income growth in our forecasts but underestimate the inequality componentIn a way that the two errors cancel each other reasonably well, resulting in the fact thatthe ascendent trajectories of the upper classes are mantained. It increases the relativeweight of the inequality effect versus pure income effects in the distributional changeobserved.
0,5
82
98
0,5
71
1
0,5
68
23
0,5
62
27
0,5
55
01
0,5
48
6
0,5
44
76
0,5
26
18
0,5
20
08
0,5
14
07
0,5
0,51
0,52
0,53
0,54
0,55
0,56
0,57
0,58
0,592
00
3
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Gini Index
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Future Scenarios - Inequality
Composição de Classes 1992 a 2014*
Composição de Classes 1992 a 2014
Avaliando o Impacto da Desigualdade**
*crescimento de classes projetado de 2010 a 2014– com redução de desigualdade
** crescimento de classes projetado de 2010 a 2014 – com e sem redução de desigualdade
The inequality impact: scenarios of the samegrowth with inequality fallingX no fall (that menas, just growth):The proportion of the classe C population in 2014 :60,1% with inequality fallingX 56,4% with pure growth.
The inequality-effect considers the differences ofGrowth between states and the ones withineach state (a separate model for each)
Prospective Classes Scenarios
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Class Composition 1992 to 2014*
Class Composition 1992 to 2014*Assessing Inequality Impact
*class growth forecasted onwards 2010 to 2014 – with inequality reduction** class growth forecasted onwards 2010 to 2014 – with and withouti nequality reduction
28
,12
25
,4
22
,8
19
,32
18
,26
16
,02
15
,32
10
,92
9,6
8,5
9
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
26
,73
27
,16
27
,06
26
,35
25
,11
24
,35
23
,62
19
,31
17
,83
16
,36
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
37
,56
39
,73
41
,81
44
,94
46
,9 49
,22
50
,45 56
,89
58
,75
60
,19
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
7,6 7,7
1
8,3
2 9,4 9,7
4
10
,41
10
,61 1
2,8
7
13
,82
14
,85
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Classe E - % Classe D - %
Classe C - %Classe AB - %
Forecasts to 2014 (with inequality-effect and growth effect combined) – Economic Classes
28
,30
25
,50
22
,83
19
,40
18
,34
15
,97
15
,14
10
,72
9,3
9
8,4
1
27
,95
25
,3
22
,78
19
,23
18
,17
16
,06
15
,5
11
,11
9,8
8,7
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Homem
Mulher
Classe E Classe D
26
,81
27
,19
27
,12
26
,16
24
,95
24
,17
23
,46
19
,22
17
,74
16
,232
6,6
5
27
,14
27
,01
26
,52
25
,26
24
,52
23
,78
19
,4
17
,92
16
,49
10
15
20
25
30
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Homem
Mulher
Classe C Classe AB
37
,37
39
,68
41
,78
45
,08
46
,95
49
,45
50
,81
57
,20
59
,09
60
,57
37
,73
39
,78
41
,85
44
,8
46
,85 49
50
,1 56
,61
58
,43
59
,84
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Homem
Mulher7
,52
7,6
4
8,2
7 9,3
5
9,7
6
10
,41
10
,59 1
2,8
6
13
,77
14
,79
7,6
6
7,7
8
8,3
7 9,4
5
9,7
1
10
,42
10
,62 1
2,8
7
13
,85
14
,91
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Homem
Mulher
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Future Scenarios of Classes opened by gender
As an economic class is a household concept there is no difference between men andwomen, that’s why individual concepts such as education, income and happiness are more relevant in terms of gender .
% Classe ABC 1995
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 2003
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 2009
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 2014
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
% Classe ABC 1993
13.01 - 28.32
28.32 - 43.63
43.63 - 58.93
58.93 - 74.24
74.24 - 89.55
Evolution of the Population Share of Class ABC between Brazilian States 1993, 1995, 2003, 2009 e 2014
1993
1995
2003
2009 2014
Populational Pyramid and Economic Classes 2003, 2011 e 2014
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
In the 2003-14 period, 52,1 million people will join class C and another 15,7 million onclasses AB. A total of 67,8 million, bigger than the UK population.Remarkably, given the contraction of consumer markets in developed countries.
Time changes: Class C: + 40 million people in 2003-11 and + 13 million in 2012-14. Classes AB: + 9,2 million people from 2003 to 2011 and + 7,7 million from 2012 to 2014.
AB population will grow proportionally more than C: 29,3% and 11,9%, respectively.We’ll talk more and more about New Class AB in the future as we did up to now withrespect to the so called New Class C.
96.205.81463.592.062 48.919.137
65.879.496105.468.908 118.013.742
13.330.25022.526.223
29.116.200
Classe DE Classe C Classe AB
92.868.780 83.296.780 96.205.814
45.646.118 55.359.38965.879.496
8.825.702 12.930.328
13.330.250
Classe DE Classe C Classe AB
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Populational Pyramid and Economic Classes 1993, 1995 e 2003
From the changes in 1993-2003 period, a big one was between 1993 and 1995, originated by the Real Plan boom occured after July 1994.
Populational Pyramid and Economic
Classes 1993 e 2014
92.868.78048.919.137
45.646.118118.013.742
8.825.702
29.116.200
Classe DE Classe C Classe AB
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Changes in forecasted classes between 1993 and 2014 indicates 21 million peoplemigrating to the classes AB and 83 million to the class C.
These actually configure remarkable decades after the so called Brazilian lost 1980’s and beginning of 1990s.
Future Happiness (Life Satisfaction in Five Years) - 2015
Felicidade Futura (2015)
2.8 - 4
4 - 5.19
5.19 - 6.39
6.39 - 7.58
7.58 - 8.78
No Data
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
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World Future Happiness - 2015
Brazil is the world champion of Future Happiness in 2015 (actuallyfour-times champion in the 4 CPS/FGV Researches on the topic)
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
Future Felicity Index (FFI) World Rank – 2015 BRICS, PIIGS & BIGs
IFF Rank IFF Rank
Brazil 8.6 1 Mali 6.6 86
Costa Rica 8.2 6 Congo 6.5 91
Denmark 8.1 11 Turkey 6.5 96
Ireland 8.0 16 Morocco 6.4 101
Switzerland 7.8 21 Russian Federation 6.4 105
U. Kingdom 7.7 26 Senegal 6.4 106
South Africa 7.7 27 China 6.2 111
Netherlands 7.6 31 Slovenia 6.2 116
Austria 7.5 36 India 6.1 119
Argentina 7.4 41 Iraq 6.1 121
Uruguay 7.3 46 Sri Lanka 6.0 126
Peru 7.2 51 Estonia 5.8 131
Italy 7.1 56 Egypt 5.7 136
France 7.0 61 Haiti 5.4 141
Germany 7.0 62 Greece 5.3 145
Honduras 6.9 66 Portugal 5.2 146
Indonesia 6.8 71 Macedonia 5.0 151
Bangladesh 6.7 76 Syrian Arab Republic 4.7 156
Spain 6.7 81
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
Future Felicity Index (FFI)
• FFI allows us to reconcile two qualifications awarded to Brazil: country of the future and young country (because the future happiness falls with age see next slide)
• The “Brasileiro, Profissão Esperança” (Brazilian, ProfessionHope) is also the spirit of the new middle class, that life willimprove.
• The expectation of the nation is almost two points lower thanthe sum of happiness of each brazilian. The problem is more from Brazil than from each Brazilian.
• How can each Brazilian expect so much for his/her life and atthe same time give a grade so low to the life of all? The grade of all can’t overcome the nation mean grade.
• The Brazilian major problems were not (or are) individual, butcollective: inequality, inflation, informality, violence, lack ofdemocracy, corruption etc. We can evolve a lot as a society.
Life Satisfaction with respect to different moments & Life Cycle (Age)
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
Passado Presente Futuro
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata
Past Present Future
Who is expect higher happiness: males orfemales?In the World:
• Women report greater happiness than men: in the future (6.74 women X 6.69 men), in the present (5.35 women X 5.31 men) and in the past (4.94 from women against 4.92 from men).
• Single women are happier than married ones? Data indicates that singlewomen show mean future happiness of 7.28 against 6.68 of marriedones.On the other hand, unmarried women show lower levels of happiness(separated 6.57 and divorced 6.46). In the widows case, the means are lower: 5.6.
• Women with children under 15 years of age report greater life satisfactionexpectation (7.02) than those who don’t (6.73).
• However, there is a particular age effect happening on people’s future happiness. The younger the person, more future happiness, which couldexplain the fact that unmarried are more optimistic than widows for example.
After all, who is expects higher happiness: married women or single ones?
In the World: • Comparing women at the same age bracket (25 to 29 years). Data indicates
that single women have a mean future happiness of 7.4, against 7 frommarried. The “mismatched” show lower levels of happiness (both separatedand divorced have 6.6). In the widows case, the means are even lower 5.4.
• There is evidence that future happiness of those that stay unmarried fallsmore as age increases. For example, at the 50 to 54 years bracket it falls to 6.2, against 6.4 of married, reversing positions.
• In order to compare with a llok on statistical significance, we ran a multinomial ordered logit model that informs us that taking females withthe same age, number of minor children, living at the same country etc (allstatistically different between themselves) happiness expectation is in descending order (unmarried, married, consensual unions, separated, divorced and widow.
Felicidade Futura Fem.
2.58 - 4
4 - 5.19
5.19 - 6.39
6.39 - 7.58
7.58 - 8.98
No Data
Felicidade Futura Masc.
2.58 - 4
4 - 5.19
5.19 - 6.39
6.39 - 7.58
7.58 - 8.98
No Data
Gender, Geography and Future Happiness (2011), Life Satisfaction in 5 Years, by gender
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
microdata
Females
Males
Mulheres
Homens
Diferença
IFF Rank
IFF Rank
IFF Rank
Mundo 6.74 -
6.69 -
0.05 -
Americas 7.22 -
7.1 -
0.12 -
brazil 8.98 1 8.56 1 0.42 0
denmark 8.51 3 8.52 2 -0.01 1
ireland 8.42 4 8.23 5 0.19 -1
switzerland 7.96 18 7.67 24 0.29 -6
united kingdom 7.89 22 7.68 23
0.21 -1
argentina 7.82 23 7.5 29 0.32 -6
costa rica 7.78 24 7.86 17 -0.08 7
austria 7.76 25 7.63 25 0.13 0
france 7.73 26 7.72 21 0.01 5
netherlands 7.67 29 7.44 34 0.23 -5
egypt 7.32 43 6.71 69 0.61 -26
spain 7.28 45 7.43 36 -0.15 9
italy 7.28 44 6.94 54 0.34 -10
morocco 7.27 46 6.95 53 0.32 -7
senegal 7.21 47 7.01 50 0.2 -3
honduras 7.17 51 7.25 43 -0.08 8
mali 7.13 52 7.46 31 -0.33 21
uruguay 7.12 53 7.08 48 0.04 5
south africa 6.87 61 6.8 63 0.07 -2
greece 6.81 62 6.2 92 0.61 -30
india 6.76 64 6.87 57 -0.11 7
germany 6.67 71 6.91 56 -0.24 15
peru 6.62 75 6.68 71 -0.06 4
china 6.61 76 6.44 85 0.17 -9
indonesia 6.57 79 6.23 91 0.34 -12
sri lanka 6.32 89 6.31 87 0.01 2
turkey 6.26 92 5.44 122 0.82 -30
bangladesh 6.16 94 5.85 109 0.31 -15
estonia 6.37 88 6.47 83 -0.1 5
russia 6.1 101 6.3 88 -0.2 13
slovenia 5.89 104 6.47 84 -0.58 20
portugal 5.68 113 6.02 102 -0.34 11
macedonia 5.48 123 5.5 121 -0.02 2
iraq 5.46 124 5.4 124 0.06 0
haiti 5.01 130 5.18 127 -0.17 3
zimbabwe 4.04 132 4.03 132 0.01 0
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata
IFF
2011
Women
X
Men
Females Males Difference
Who is happier?: Brazilian females or males?
• The Brazilian women are happier than men in the future(8.98 her against 8.56 his) and in the present(6.73 heragainst 6.54 his).
• An statistical model which shows that no country hasfuture happiness levels (with and without statisticalcontrols (age, etc)) higher than that found in Brazil.
• No other country reveals future happiness genderdifferences more favorable to females than Brazil.
• Concluding: Brazil is not only the world champion infuture happiness on female and male leagues, but alsowith respect to differences between genders, with womenon top.
Future Happiness Simulator
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata
http://www.fgv.br/cps/bd/ncm2014/IndiceFelicidade_eng/index.htm
Why women are happier than men in Brazil?Mean Schooling – age over 25 years:
5,0
6
5,1
6
5,2
8 5,4
4
5,5
0 5,6
4
5,6
9 5,9
4 6,1
1
6,2
4 6,3
9
6,5
0 6,7
0 6,8
4 7,0
1 7,1
6
4,9
1 5,0
6 5,2
5 5,4 5
,51
5,6
4
5,7
5 6,0
5 6,2
2 6,3
7 6,5
4
6,6
6 6,8
9 7,0
4 7,2
3 7,3
7
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
81
99
2
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Homem
Mulher
There was a reversion in adult population schooling by gender: was 5,1 in 1992 (his), against 4,91 (her) and passes to 7,2 (his) against 7,4 (her) in 2009.1996 was the year females overtook males
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Males
Females
Mean Individual Income:: Income
57
1,8
5
61
1,0
1 73
7,6
8
73
8,0
2
74
0,6
3
74
4,4
5
67
1,6
8
69
1,5
6
68
2,7
7
63
7,8
0
65
1,8
8
68
8,0
6
74
1,0
5
75
8,6
2
79
4,7
2
80
6,5
4
21
5,4
9
22
4,2
6
29
6,8
3
31
3,4
1
31
6,4
1
32
8,1
3
31
2,5
3
34
0,0
5
34
8,6
6
33
1,3
8
34
7,6
2
37
6,0
4
41
9,3
9
42
6,9
5
45
5,3
1
46
8,3
1
4
104
204
304
404
504
604
704
804
9041
99
2
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Homem
MulherFemale
Male
There was a reduction in the income differential between men and women. It was 62% in 1992, and it is 42% in 2009.
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
84
,77
91
,25
10
6,3
6
10
8,2
0
10
9,0
6
12
5,9
1
12
1,5
1
12
2,2
5
12
3,4
3
11
7,1
4
12
0,3
9
12
9,4
2
13
7,4
7
13
5,2
6
14
4,7
8
14
7,8
9
58
,39
63
,89
80
,41
85
,25
88
,82
96
,97
97
,6
10
6,1
3
11
0,4
8
10
9,3
1
11
6,2
2
12
5,9
6
14
1,6
1
13
8,5
7
15
2,5
1
15
5,6
4
24
44
64
84
104
124
144
164
19
92
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Homem
Mulher
Other Income Sources (Individual)
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
48
7,0
8
51
9,7
6 63
1,3
2
62
9,8
2
63
1,5
7
61
8,5
4
55
0,1
7
56
9,3
1
55
9,3
4
52
0,6
6
53
1,4
9
55
8,6
4
60
3,5
8
62
3,3
6
64
9,9
4
65
8,6
5
15
7,1
16
0,3
7
21
6,4
2
22
8,1
6
22
7,5
9
23
1,1
6
21
4,9
3
23
3,9
2
23
8,1
8
22
2,0
7
23
1,4
25
0,0
8
27
7,7
8
28
8,3
8
30
2,8
31
2,7
1
4
104
204
304
404
504
604
704
8041
99
2
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Homem
Mulher
Males
Labor
Non Labor
Males
Females
Female
1996 was the year females overtook males in other income sources Bolsa Familia, Retirementbenefits
Income Variation
2001 2009 Var
Mean Individual Income
Male 691.56 806.54 16.63%
Female 340.05 468.31 37.72%
Labor Income
Male 569.31 658.65 15.69%
Female 233.92 312.71 33.68%
Income from Other Sources
Male 122.25 147.89 20.97%
Female 106.13 155.6 46.61%
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
15 a 60 years – Total
Gender
Category YearIncome from
all Labors
Hour-Wage(Positive
Income) byYears of
SchoolingYears of
SchoolingWorkedHours
EAPOccupation
RateParticipationRate on Labor
Marketx x x x
Man
2011 1264,88 3,98 9,74 44,02 0,91 0,81
2003 647,88 2,51 8,61 44,96 0,82 0,81
AccumulatedGrowthRate(%) 95,23% 58,57% 13,12% -2,09% 10,98% 0%
Woman
2011 693,6 3,06 10,45 39,97 0,88 0,62
2003 314,65 1,89 9,3 39,75 0,76 0,59
AccumulatedGrowthRate(%) 120,44% 61,9% 12,37% 0,55% 15,79% 5,08%
Source: CPS/FGV from PME/IBGE microdata
Labor Income Decomposition
In the 2003-11 period, the labor income differential falls because of the wage-effect, but mainly because of the greater “effort to labor” (working journey, occupation andlabor participation)
Learn more about the Center for Social Policies researches at www.fgv.br/cps
New Middle Class
•Visit the Saraiva website
• March 7th, 2012, Wednesday, from 19h.• Bolsa de Valores (BOVESPA)• Rua XV de Novembro, 275, 1º andar, Centro - São Paulo - SP•
• March 9th, 2012 - Friday, from 19h.• Livraria da Travessa (Travessa Bookstore) in Shopping Leblon • Av. Afrânio de Melo Franco, 290 - Leblon - Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Marcelo Neri releases the book published by Editora Saraiva
