Bacchus Marsh Retail and Commercial Assessment · Final report Austin Miller 15 September 2008 John...

A u g u s t 2 0 0 8

Bacchus Marsh Retail and Commercial Assessment

Input into Bacchus Marsh Structure Plan

Prepared for

Moorabool Shire Council

by

Essential Economics Pty Ltd

Authorship

Report stage Author Date Review Date

Draft report Sean Stephens &

Austin Miller 13 August 2008 John Henshall 15 August 2008

Final report Austin Miller 15 September 2008 John Henshall 15 September 2008

Disclaimer

Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material and the integrity of the analysis presented herein, Essential Economics Pty Ltd accepts no liability for any actions taken on the basis of its contents.

Contact details

For further details please contact:

Essential Economics Pty Ltd 96 Pelham Street Carlton Victoria 3053 Australia PH 61 3 9347 5255 FAX 61 3 9347 5355 EMAIL [email protected] WEB www.essentialeconomics.com

ABN 38 894 627 397

Job Code: 07188

Contents

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 4 1 Bacchus Marsh Town Centre Profile .......................................................................................... 5 1.1 Bacchus Marsh Location and Regional Context ................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Structure Plan Study Area .................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Centre Description ............................................................................................................................................. 8 1.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 2 Precinct Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Precinct Definitions ......................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Precinct Descriptions ....................................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 3 Market Assessment ................................................................................................................ 24 3.1 Retail Hierarchy ............................................................................................................................................... 24 3.2 Trade Area Definition ...................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 Trade Area Population ..................................................................................................................................... 27 3.4 Main Trade Area Retail Spending .................................................................................................................... 31 3.5 Market Assessment ......................................................................................................................................... 32 3.6 Non‐Retail Development Opportunities .......................................................................................................... 34 3.7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 4 Opportunity Analysis .............................................................................................................. 36 4.1 Opportunities and Recommendations by Precinct .......................................................................................... 36 4.2 Opportunities for Overall Bacchus Marsh Town Centre .................................................................................. 39

B A C H U S M A R S H S T R U C T U R E P L A N E C O N O M I C A S S E S S M E N T

E s s e n t i a l E c o n o m i c s P t y L t d

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INTRODUCT ION

Bacchus Marsh is the largest town in Moorabool Shire and a rapidly growing urban area on the fringe of metropolitan Melbourne. The Bacchus Marsh Central Activity Centre Local Structure Plan seeks to re‐invigorate the town’s commercial centre and to create a high quality activity centre which serves the needs of the surrounding region into the future.

An economic assessment is required as input to the Structure Plan in order to inform land use planning for the study area and, in particular, to support the objectives developed in the “Growing Moorabool” Economic Development Strategy and Action Plan (2006).



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1 BACCHUS MARSH TOWN CENTRE PROF I LE

This chapter describes the town of Bacchus Marsh and its locational context, and identifies the study area to be considered by the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre Structure Plan. A general description of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is then provided.

1.1 Bacchus Marsh Location and Regional Context

Bacchus Marsh is a major town located on the Western Freeway approximately 50km west of the Melbourne CBD and midway between Melbourne and Ballarat. The town effectively straddles the Western Freeway between the Werribee and Lerderderg Rivers, with the suburb of Darley located on the north side of the freeway, Bacchus Marsh located south of the freeway, and Maddingley located south of the Werribee River.

Bacchus Marsh is located on a flat alluvial plain and is part of an intense agricultural area which includes a large number of orchards and other intensive cropping on land located on the urban fringe. The Avenue of Honour is located at the main eastern entry to Bacchus Marsh and this is a well‐known feature of the town; it is also the location for a number of wholesale fruit and vegetable stalls.

Bacchus Marsh is closely related to Melbourne through the town’s location on the Western Freeway and the availability of VLine rail services which link the town to the Melbourne CBD. On this basis, Bacchus Marsh is often considered a commuter town for people at work in Melbourne.

In relative terms, Bacchus Marsh is closer to the Melbourne CBD than the suburbs of Pakenham and Mornington which are both part of the Melbourne metropolitan area.

Map 1.1 shows the location of Bacchus Marsh and its regional context.

1.2 Structure Plan Study Area

The Bacchus Marsh Town Centre Structure Plan needs to consider the long‐term potential for ongoing growth and development of the centre in a manner consistent with State and Local Government policy objectives. For this reason, a relatively broad study area has been defined.

The town centre is located south of the Western Highway and is generally defined to include an established main‐street style retail and commercial area along Main Street, as well as a number of retail and commercial premises located along Gisborne Road and Grant Street.

This retail and commercial area forms part of the study area, which is shown in Map 1.2. The area is bounded by the edge of the Avenue of Honour in the east, the alignment of Fisken Street in the east, by Station Street in the south, and land on the western side of Gisborne Road and Grant Street.

The defined study area includes a wide range of uses in addition to the traditional town centre functions focussed on Main Street, and deliberately includes the railway station precinct in the south in order to ensure that transit‐oriented development opportunities are exploited in the structure planning process.



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1.3 Centre Description

The retail, commercial and administrative functions of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre are concentrated in the north of the study area, as shown in Map 1.2. Main Street forms the east‐west spine of the existing town centre, with most major uses located either directly on Main Street, or in close proximity. This part of the centre is the most vibrant in terms of pedestrian and street activity and includes the Bacchus Marsh Village Shopping Centre.

Along the western edge of the centre, Gisborne Road and Grant Street incorporate the Bacchus Marsh Hospital, Bacchus Marsh College and Maddingley Park, in addition to a number of retail and commercial uses. The Bacchus Marsh railway station is located on the southern edge of the town centre, approximately 1.2km south of Main Street.

Tenancy Mix

A floorspace survey of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre was undertaken by Essential Economics and Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy in April 2008 in order to calculate the retail floorspace in the centre by category. The results of this floorspace survey for the overall centre are shown in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Bacchus Marsh Town Centre Retail Floorspace Summary, April 2008

Category No. of Businesses Retail Floorspace (m2) % of Retail Floorspace

Food, Liquor and Groceries 12 7,780 38%Café and Restaurant 9 880 4%Takeaway Food 12 1,450 7%Total Food 33 10,110 50%Apparel 15 2,880 14%Homewares 12 2,270 11%Bulky Merchandise 3 1,070 5%Leisure 13 1,950 10%Total Non‐Food 43 8,170 40%Services 17 2,090 10%Occupied Retail 93 20,370 100%Vacant (vacancy rate) 22 4,090 17%Total Retail 115 24,460 ‐Source: Essential Economics Floorspace Survey 10th April 2008; Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy

The Bacchus Marsh Town Centre operates with a relatively high vacancy rate of 17%. In general, a typical strongly‐performing strip shopping centre can have a vacancy rate of approximately 4% to 6%, thus the existing vacancy rate in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre reflects a relatively poor trading outcome.

The issue of a high vacancy rate is a long‐term problem which has been recognised in previous studies including “A Strategy for Retail Business Development in Bacchus Marsh Town Centre” prepared by Essential Economics in March 2001. In that report, a total of 98 occupied retail businesses were identified in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre from a similar floorspace survey undertaken in 2000, and this figure is actually higher than the 93 businesses identified in this current study, seven years later, and which are shown in Table 1.1.

Food retail is the largest retail floorspace category in the Town Centre, accounting for 10,110m2 or 50% of total occupied retail floorspace. This figure represents a high share of overall floorspace for a centre of this size. Generally, the dominance of food retailing is typical of a smaller centre serving primarily a



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neighbourhood retail shopping function as opposed to a higher‐order centre serving a sub‐regional sized catchment area and which is typically characterised by a higher share of non‐food retail floorspace.

The food retail offer in the centre is dominated by the Coles, ALDI and Foodworks supermarkets, as well as a large number of fresh food and takeaway food outlets. For a centre of this size, particularly in the context of its proximity to Melbourne, there is a only relatively modest Café and Restaurant presence at 4% of retail floorspace.

Apparel is the largest non‐food category in the centre, although this comprises a limited number of national brand tenants (primarily in the Bacchus Marsh Village), with the balance comprising niche apparel traders (such as workwear, school uniforms), lower‐order independent stores and op shops.

Other major non‐food retailers include a modest sized Thrifty Link hardware store in Grant Street, The Reject Shop, Warehouse Sales (home electrical) and a large pharmacy.

Centre Function

Retail

The retail sector in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre primarily provides a basic range of neighbourhood‐oriented retail goods and services. On this basis, the centre is able to provide for the basic day‐to‐day needs of the resident population of Bacchus Marsh and surrounds in relation to groceries, liquor, food catering (takeaway and restaurants) and other basic convenience retailing.

However, despite the broader “town centre” role for Bacchus Marsh and surrounding areas, the centre lacks the range and quality of retailers able to meet the higher‐order retail needs of the population. Thus, many residents have to travel to more distant centres such as Melton, Ballarat and centres across Melbourne to access these higher‐order needs. In particular, residents would travel to these centres for major purchases such as fashion, bulky merchandise, homewares etc, as well as visit major national brand retailers not present in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.

Non‐Retail Commercial

The commercial sector in Bacchus Marsh is relatively small for a centre serving a town centre role. Typically, major town centres in regional areas of Victoria contain a larger and more diverse non‐retail commercial presence due to their role as a major service centre for a regional catchment. The proximity and relative accessibility of Ballarat and Melbourne is likely to contribute to this modest non‐retail presence in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.

Commercial office space is estimated at approximately 10,000m2 and includes a mix of real estate, insurance, legal and other basic professional services. There are also a number of notable office vacancies, including some examples of old and redundant office development located adjacent to the Bacchus Marsh Village.

A number of scattered office tenancies are identified, either on or adjacent to Main Street in the higher activity parts of the centre. A range of commercial premises are located on the fringes of the town centre, particularly at the eastern end adjacent to the Avenue of Honour, and in Grant Street. Office space includes a mixture of purpose built small‐scale offices, and shop front office uses integrated into the retail areas of the centre.



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The presence of the Bacchus Marsh hospital with its regional health care role (including the Melton area) has been the catalyst for a number of associated supporting and allied health services. The area around the hospital located on Grant street houses a range of support services principally serving the private healthcare sector. These facilities include auxiliary treatment and x‐ray, consulting rooms and alternative therapy practitioners.

Despite the relatively limited office presence, importantly the centre does contain bank branches for the four major banks and full post office facilities are located in the Bacchus Marsh Village Shopping Centre.

Located to the north‐east of the Bacchus Marsh rail station is a dedicated light industrial area accommodating a range of trade and warehousing uses.

Other Facilities

Other major community and administrative facilities located in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre include:

• Bacchus Marsh Hospital,

• Moorabool Shire Council Offices,

• Bacchus Marsh Bowling Club,

• Bacchus Marsh RSL, and

• Bacchus Marsh Community Centre.

These community facilities contribute to the broader “town centre” role of the centre as a focus for servicing Bacchus Marsh residents and residents of surrounding rural areas, as well as adding to the centre’s overall vibrancy and activity levels .

Employment

Estimates of employment in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre have been prepared with the assistance of Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy and are based on floorspace data and standard industry employment ratios. We have crosschecked this data against 2006 ABS Journey to Work results in order to ensure the accuracy of this data.

On the basis of this analysis, an estimated 1,900 jobs are located in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre across all employment categories. This estimate includes approximately 700 jobs in the retail sector.

Total employment in the urban area of Bacchus Marsh is estimated at approximately 3,220 jobs, based on Journey to Work data. On this basis, approximately 60% of total employment in Bacchus Marsh is generated by the town centre. This figure highlights that in addition to the centre’s role as a service provider to the surrounding population, the centre also has an important role in generating employment and income within the local community.



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1.4 Conclusion

Bacchus Marsh is located 50 km west of the Melbourne CBD and is closely related to Melbourne through its location on the Western Freeway and the Melbourne‐Ballarat rail line. The Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is located south of the freeway and is generally defined to include a predominantly main‐street style retail and commercial area along Main Street. The Bacchus Marsh Structure Plan is assessing the potential for ongoing growth and development in the town centre, and considers a study area defined to include land as far south as the Bacchus Marsh railway station. Based on a floorspace survey, the study area is estimated to include approximately 20,370m2 of occupied retail floorspace. On an overall basis however, there is a relatively high vacancy rate of 17% in the centre which is well above normal expectations and this has been a long‐term problem in the centre. Nonetheless, the town centre employs an estimated 1,700 people and this represents approximately 60% of the total jobs located in the urban area of Bacchus Marsh.



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2 PREC INCT ANALYS IS

This chapter provides a precinct‐based analysis of the Study Area to provide a localised appreciation of the issues impacting on the town centre and the opportunities to generate land use outcomes consistent with policy direction.

2.1 Precinct Definitions

The Bacchus Marsh Town Centre has been divided into five precincts upon which an analysis of the existing situation in the centre can be assessed, as well as future opportunities for the Structure Plan identified.

The precincts are shown on the following page in Map 2.1 and are defined as follows:

• Main Street West Precinct – includes the main‐street oriented retail along Main Street west of the Village Shopping Centre, including the retail/commercial areas on Gisborne Road, Graham Street and Grant Street.

• The Village Precinct ‐ includes the Village Shopping Centre and areas fronting Main Street, as well as a strip of shops located on the south side of Main Street opposite the shopping centre.

• Eastern Fringe Precinct ‐ incorporates the balance of the Main Street shops, Council offices and the low intensity commercial area extending east towards the Avenue of Honour.

• Grant Street Precinct ‐ incorporates the area of Grant Street between the Millbank Street intersection in the north and across the Werribee River to Labilliere Street in the south.

• Station Precinct – includes the area around the Bacchus Marsh Railway station, including the light industrial area and Maddingley Park.

These five areas play different roles in the day‐to‐day operation of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.

In the following sections of this report, each precinct is analysed individually to identify the current land‐use mix and trading performance, the role the precinct plays in the town centre, how it well it is performing this role, and issues which need to be addressed in the Structure Plan process.

The analysis in this chapter is principally concerned with developing an understanding of the current operation of each precinct and identification of relevant issues. More specific recommendations as to future policy and land use outcomes in each precinct are presented in the issues and opportunities analysis in Chapter 4.



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Source: MapInfo and Google Earth ProProduced by: Essential EconomicsMap 2.1 Bacchus Marsh Structure Plan ‐ Retail Precincts

Main Street West Precinct The Village Precinct Grant Street Precinct

Eastern Fringe Precinct Major FeatureStation Street Precinct



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2.2 Precinct Descriptions

Main Street West Precinct

Description

The Main Street west precinct occupies the street‐based high activity areas of the town centre located to the west of the Village Shopping Centre. The precinct includes both the street‐based retailing along both sides of Main Street, as well as a range of uses located in side streets. The major retail tenant in the Main Street West precinct is the Foodworks supermarket which is located off Bennet Street, adjacent to the large car park.

Floorspace Summary

The Main Street West Precinct contains a total of 6,420m2 of occupied retail floorspace or one‐third of the occupied retail floorspace in the overall town centre. Although food represents the largest share of retail floorspace in this precinct, there is also a mix of retailers in non‐food categories, most particularly in homewares and general merchandise.

The vacancy rate in the Main Street West Precinct is an unacceptably high 25%, although this is to some degree inflated by the vacant former Foodworks site located on Main Street. If the former Foodworks site is excluded, the vacancy rate for this precinct falls to 13% with 990 m2 of vacant floorspace.

Table 2.1 Main Street West Precinct – Retail Floorspace Summary


Food, Liquor and Groceries 3 2,060 32%

Café and Restaurant 3 360 6%

Takeaway Food 5 710 11%

Total Food 11 3,130 49%

Apparel 4 530 8%

Homewares 8 1,220 19%

Bulky Merchandise 1 120 2%

Leisure 5 510 8%

Total Non‐Food 18 2,380 37%

Services 8 910 14%

Occupied Retail 37 6,420 100%

Vacant (vacancy rate) 6 2,100 25%

Total Retail 43 8,520 ‐Source: Essential Economics Floorspace Survey 10th April 2008; Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy

Role and Function

The Main Street West precinct is the defining part of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre for both residents and visitors to the town. Generally, this precinct has a pleasant street‐based aspect, and is the most active section of the town centre in terms of pedestrian and customer activity. A number of improvements have been made to the streetscape, such as the small Church Street Mall and street furniture.



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The Foodworks supermarket, although not a full‐line store with a comprehensive range of food and groceries, is conveniently located with excellent access to the adjacent Council car park. The Foodworks is relatively busy and well‐run, however this area in general suffers from a lack of integration with the balance of the town centre – including both the Village Shopping Centre to the east and the Main Street retail strip to the south.

The key connections between the Foodworks and the balance of the centre are Gell Street and the Church Street mall. These side streets include a mix of office and retail service providers which also extends into Graham Street, where the Holden dealership occupies a large site to the rear of the Main Street shops.

Main Street itself has a genuine town centre atmosphere, including banking facilities and a mix shops including cafes, homewares, beauty and other convenience retailing. A number of hotels and bistros (including the large Courthouse Hotel) are located in this area and give Main Street a genuine leisure feel which is attractive to locals and visitors to the town. Vibrancy in Main Street is compromised by the presence of vacancies however, including the former Foodworks supermarket.

Alternative uses for some of the older premises could be considered, for example, backpacker accommodation, art/photographic gallery space, internet cafe, etc. These are facilities which would appeal to tourists and other visitors to the town, and in some cases would also be popular with residents (e.g. galleries, etc).

Takeaway food is concentrated near the very busy Grant Street intersection, and includes McDonalds and KFC outlets. Grant Street and Gisborne Road are both extremely busy during peak times, when cars can be backed up some distance from the roundabout.

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Map 2.2 Main Street West Precinct

Significant Feature Main Street West Precinct

Source: Google Earth Pro and MapInfoProduced by: Essential Economics



1 6

The Village Precinct

Description

The Village Precinct includes the Bacchus Marsh Village Shopping Centre which occupies most of the block bound by Main Street, Young Street and Bennett Street.

The Village shopping centre is an enclosed shopping centre development with a multi‐storey carpark at the northern end of the site. The carpark is located adjacent to an internalised mall with a large open central area including a food court and Coles supermarket. An ALDI and Target Country are also located in the centre. A number of tenancies have frontage to Main Street and a small pedestrian square in the south. A number of vacant offices are located near the southern entrance to the centre.

The Village Precinct also includes the shops on the southern side of Main Street opposite the Village Shopping Centre, the Royal Hotel and some additional shops located in Young Street.

Floorspace Summary

The Village Precinct is the dominant retail area in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre, and contains approximately 11,700m2 of occupied retail floorspace, or 57% of total retail floorspace in the town centre.

The Village Shopping Centre contains approximately 9,500m2 of retail floorspace, including the anchor tenants of Coles (3,500m2), ALDI (1,500m2) and Target Country (850m2). However, despite the presence of these anchors, the Village Shopping Centre is characterised by vacant shops and this contributes to an overall vacancy rate across the Village Precinct of approximately 15%; this is a high vacancy rate.

The Village Precinct has a relatively low share of retailers in non‐food product categories, and in particular the Village Shopping Centre lacks a genuine range of non‐food and comparison shopping options.

Table 2.2 The Village Precinct – Retail Floorspace Summary


Food, Liquor and Groceries 5 5,730 49%

Café and Restaurant 6 520 4%


Total Food 17 6,730 57%

Apparel 10 2,100 18%

Homewares 3 1,000 9%


Leisure 4 710 6%

Total Non‐Food 18 4,360 37%

Services 5 620 5%


Vacant (vacancy rate) 16 1,990 15%




1 7

Role and Function

The Village Shopping Centre is Bacchus Marsh’s major retail destination, including Coles (the town’s only full‐line supermarket), ALDI, Country Target, Warehouse Sales, the Australia Post office and a range of other specialty shops and uses. The expectation is that the Village Shopping Centre should be a focus for some higher‐order retail functions such as national brand fashion and homewares retailers, in addition to its convenience retail role. However, at present the centre does not appear to be fulfilling this role.

The high vacancy rate in the Village Shopping Centre contributes to a general lack of vibrancy and activity which is not assisted by poor integration with the balance of the Village precinct and the balance of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre, generally. The interface of the shopping centre is poor on all four sides, including the southern entrance and pedestrian square on Main Street. In general, the quality of the shopping experience for consumers at Bacchus Marsh Village Shopping Centre is inferior to that at competing centres in Ballarat and Melbourne.

The street‐based tenancies on both sides of Main Street in the Village precinct are similar to those found further west in the Main Street West precinct, with a range of takeaway outlets, cafe and restaurants and other small shops present. The vacancy rate for these tenancies on Main Street is lower than for the Village Shopping Centre, although there are a small number of vacancies, and in general this area trades relatively successfully.

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Source: MapInfo and Google Earth ProProduced by: Essential Economics

Note: Approximate out lines onlyMap 2.3 The Village Precinct

Significant Feature The Village Precinct/



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Eastern Fringe Precinct

Description

The Eastern Fringe precinct has been defined to include those parts of the study area located on either side of Main Street to the east of the Village precinct. The precinct includes a mix of municipal, community, commercial and retail facilities, with the intensity of development generally reducing towards the eastern edge of the Bacchus Marsh urban area. The precinct also incorporates a number of residential dwellings which are inter‐mixed with the retail and commercial uses.

Floorspace Summary

The Eastern Fringe precinct contains only a small amount of retail. The primary role of this precinct is its community and civic function related to the presence of the Moorabool Shire offices and associated facilities, as well as a diverse range of commercial uses integrated with the residential dwellings in the eastern part of the precinct.

The Council‐owned land in Main Street where the Shire offices are located is currently the subject of an Expression of Interest (EOI) process. The EOI relates to the redevelopment of the site for a new Bacchus Marsh Community learning Centre, RSL Sub‐Branch and a mix of retail including fresh food and general services. The Shire offices are expected to be relocated out of the town centre to a new site at Darley.

Table 2.3 Eastern Fringe Precinct – Retail Floorspace Summary


Food, Liquor and Groceries ‐ ‐ ‐

Café and Restaurant ‐ ‐ ‐


Total Food 1 80 50%

Apparel ‐ ‐ ‐

Homewares ‐ ‐ ‐

Bulky Merchandise ‐ ‐ ‐

Leisure 1 80 50%

Total Non‐Food 1 80 50%

Services ‐ ‐ ‐

Occupied Retail 2 160 100%

Vacant (vacancy rate) ‐ ‐ ‐

Total Retail 2 160 ‐Source: Essential Economics Floorspace Survey 10th April 2008; Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy

Role

The Eastern Fringe precinct is an important entry point to town, accommodating important civic and community uses in addition to office and general commercial activities. The major community facilities in the precinct include:

• Shire offices,

• Bacchus Marsh Bowling Club,

• Bacchus Marsh RSL,

• public library,



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• adult education centre.

In addition to the civic and community functions, the Eastern Fringe precinct also provides an important range of business uses that would otherwise be unsuited to location in the more intensely developed areas to the west, and these uses include a funeral home, service station, automotive repairs, a selection of medical consulting rooms, and rural supplies. A number of commercial offices, including in converted residential buildings, are also located through the precinct.

Details of the proposed redevelopment of the civic area are unavailable at the time of writing due to the confidential nature of the tender process. However, as already noted, the EOI is expected to involve the relocation of Council offices, improve some existing community facilities and introduce a range of retail uses likely to include some cafes and restaurants, fresh food stalls (possibly including a supermarket) and other specialty shops.



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Source: MapInfo and Google Earth ProProduced by: Essential Economics

Note: Approximate out lines onlyMap 2.4 Eastern Fringe Precinct

Significant Feature Eastern Fringe Precinct/



2 0

Grant Street Precinct

Description

The Grant Street precinct is shown in Map 2.5 and incorporates a mix of retail and commercial uses scattered along Grant Street, from Millbank Street in the north to Bacchus Marsh College in the south (near Taverner Street). Three distinct small strips of activity exist, including some peripheral trade and medical uses in the north near the Bacchus Marsh Hospital; takeaway, consulting room and trade uses directly north of the Werribee River; and a small cluster of shops and hotel at the Grant and Labilliere Street intersection, opposite Maddingley Park. In the south of the precinct, the Werribee River and Peppertree Park give the area a pleasant appearance.

Floorspace Summary

The Grant Street precinct incorporates a relatively broad mix of land uses including convenience retail, peripheral trade and retail uses and a notable number of medical consulting uses associated with the Bacchus Marsh Hospital which is also located in the precinct.

The food retail tenancies are focussed on serving a convenience role and include a small general store. The precinct also includes the town’s only hardware store. Importantly, this part of the centre contains no vacancies, highlighting the benefits of a strong degree of accessibility and visibility to retailers trading in this part of the centre.

At present, two small developments are under construction and incorporate additional consulting rooms. Also notable is a mixed use development on the corner of Labilliere and Grant Street which incorporates ground floor retail and shop‐top housing.

Table 2.4 Grant Street Precinct – Retail Floorspace Summary


Food, Liquor and Groceries 6 540 26%

Café and Restaurant ‐ ‐ ‐


Total Food 8 720 35%

Apparel 2 250 12%

Homewares 1 50 2%


Leisure 1 100 5%

Total Non‐Food 5 800 38%

Services 5 560 27%


Vacant (vacancy rate) ‐ ‐ ‐


Role

The Grant Street precinct operates as the principal north‐south axis linking the Bacchus Marsh urban area, and connects the Bacchus Marsh train station to Main Street in the Town Centre. However, the retail and commercial functions are scattered, and there is a lack of continuous street‐based activity between the station in the south and Main Street in the north.



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The precinct is characterised by the heavy traffic which uses Grant Street, and which supports much of the retail and commercial uses located in the precinct. For convenience‐oriented retailers, the ability for customers to park near particular shops, make their purchase, and then continue their journey, is a particular advantage.

The Grant Street precinct also incorporates an important range of community facilities including Peppertree Park, which includes the municipal swimming centre, and the Bacchus Marsh Hospital. The presence of the hospital and nearby private consulting rooms means that the area serves as an important medical service role to the surrounding region.

There is an area of B2 zoned land principally consisting of residential houses around the south‐west corner of the Waddell and Grant Streets. B2 zoning is intended for the development of larger office buildings. It is unclear that there is demand for office of this size that could not be provided using the more flexible B1Z classification. The X‐ray centre opposite is the largest development on Grant Street and is located on B1Z. A review of the planning mechanisms for this area may be necessary.

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Bacchus Marsh HospitalBacchus Marsh HospitalBacchus Marsh HospitalBacchus Marsh HospitalBacchus Marsh HospitalBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita lBacchus Marsh Hospita l

Peppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming PoolPeppertree Park Swimming Pool

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Source: MapInfo and Google Earth ProProduced by: Essential EconomicsMap 2.5 Grant Street Precinct

Significant Feature Grant Street Precinct



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Station Street Precinct

Description

The Bacchus Marsh train station is located at the southern edge of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre on Station Street. The area immediately around the station is used for car parking. To the north‐west are located Maddingley Park and Bacchus Marsh College, while a significant light industrial area is situated to the east, as shown in Map 2.6.

With the exception of the light industrial uses, there is no significant retail or commercial use in the precinct.

Role

The Station precinct serves Bacchus Marsh’s large commuter workforce who take advantage of the train link to Melbourne. However, the lack of regular public transport within Bacchus Marsh and Darley generates the requirement for a large amount of car parking within the station precinct.

No retail or commercial development is located in proximity to the station.

e Riveree Riveree Riverbee Riverribee Rivere Riveree Riveree Riverbee Riverribee Rivere Riveree Riverbee Riverribee Rivere Riveree Riveree Riverbee Riverribee Rivere Riveree Riveree Riverbee Riverribee River

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Maddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley ParkMaddingley Park

Industrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial AreaIndustrial Area

Railway StationRailway StationRailway StationRailway StationRailway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway StationRa ilway Station

Bacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh CollegeBacchus Marsh College


Station Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street PrecinctStation Street Precinct

Source: MapInfo and Google Earth ProProduced by: Essential EconomicsMap 2.6 Station Street Precinct

Significant Feature Station Street Precinct



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The light industrial area to the east of the station provides important local business and employment opportunities and is almost fully developed. This area plays an important employment generation role for the township. Re‐location of the precinct is therefore not an important policy priority, and something that could be addressed in future policy reviews.

The area adjacent to the station west of the Industrial Area is occupied by Maddingley Park and Bacchus Marsh College, both of which are important community facilities.

2.3 Conclusion

The Bacchus Marsh Town Centre contains a relatively diverse mix of uses which are distributed across the study area. Five precincts have been defined to reflect the various roles and functions operating within the centre and to assist in the preparation of policy direction and recommendations in the structure planning process. The three precincts based on Main Street contain the most intensive and important retail and commercial functions, while the Grant Street and Station precincts are less‐ intensively developed, although they do contain important social infrastructure including the hospital and train station.



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3 MARKET ASSESSMENT

This chapter of the report provides a market assessment of the potential for growth and development of retail and commercial uses in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre. The analysis is intended to inform the structure plan and assist in the preparation of the recommendation contained in Chapter 4 of this report.

3.1 Retai l Hierarchy

For the purposes of preparing a retail and commercial assessment for individual activity centres, we classify the role and function of centres according to a retail centre hierarchy normally used in a retail‐economic assessment. The hierarchy is based on a range of factors including the size of the centre, its retail elements (department stores, discount department stores, supermarkets etc), the size of its geographic catchment, and the function it serves in terms of meeting the convenience and comparison shopping needs of its catchment or trade area. The hierarchy relevant to the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is shown in Table 3.1 below.

Table 3.1 Bacchus Marsh Retail Hierarchy

Retail HierarchyRetail

Floorspace (m2)

Anchor TenantsDistance from Bacchus

Marsh (km)1

Capital City

Melbourne CBD 650,000Myer, David Jones, Target,

Big W, DFO50

Regional CentreHighpoint 140,000 Myer, Big W, Target, Harris

Scarfe, Safeway40

Ballarat CBD 115,000 Myer, Target, Big W, Safeway Coles

50

Sub Regional CentreWatergardens 90,000 Kmart, Coles, Safeway 30Melton CAD 35,000 Kmart, Coles, Safeway 12Sunshine CAD 70,000 Big W, Safeway, Coles 35Large Neighbourhood Centre (Town Centre)Bacchus Marsh 20,000 Coles, Foodworks, Country Target 0Small Neighbourhood Centre (Town Centre)Darley 2,000 IGA 2Ballan 2,000 IGA 20Source: Essential Economics, Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy1. Direct distance

Each level in the hierarchy is described in the following paragraphs:

• Capital City is the retail, commercial and administrative centre of state‐wide significance.

The Melbourne CBD is located 50km east of Bacchus Marsh and is linked by strong road and rail links. The CBD contains major department stores, discount department stores and Australia’s largest range of specialty retailing. Many residents of Bacchus Marsh would visit the CBD at least occasionally in order to undertake comparison shopping in categories such as apparel and homewares etc, or for recreation‐related visits.



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• Regional centres typically serve residents of a large regional catchment with their higher‐order shopping (and non‐retail) requirements.

Highpoint is a regional shopping centre located 40km east of Bacchus Marsh which effectively serves the western suburbs of Melbourne and beyond. The centre contains a large Myer department store in addition to an extensive range of specialties, including apparel and fashion tenants. Highpoint attracts patronage from residents of Bacchus Marsh seeking access to these retail formats.

The Ballarat CBD is located 50km west of Bacchus Marsh and also contains an extensive range of retail and commercial facilities which would be accessed by many residents of Bacchus Marsh.

• Sub‐regional centres serve a large catchment and typically contain one or more discount department stores and major full‐line supermarkets in addition to a significant range of specialty shops. Shoppers frequent sub‐regional centres for both their weekly and higher‐order shopping and non‐retail requirements.

Sub‐regional centres of relevance to the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre include Melton, Sunshine and Watergardens. Although some distance from Bacchus Marsh, these centres offer a range of goods and services not available locally and which would be visited regularly by Bacchus Marsh residents. Melton, in particular, is relatively accessible to Bacchus Marsh and contains the closest discount department store (Kmart) and major hardware retailer (Bunnings).

• Large Neighbourhood centres serve the basic day‐to‐day retail and service needs of the surrounding catchment and typically include at least one full‐line supermarket, as well as a variety of specialty stores primarily aimed towards convenience retailing, although generally also containing a small number of higher‐order specialty stores (including fashion and homewares etc).

Despite its broader town centre role to Bacchus Marsh and surrounding areas, in a functional sense the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre serves a retail role typical of a large neighbourhood activity centre.

• Small Neighbourhood centres tend to serve a very localised catchment with a small retail and commercial offer, and an increased focus on convenience (or day‐to‐day) retail outlets.

Small neighbourhood centres of relevance include the small centre at Darley and the Ballan town centre.

3.2 Trade Area Definition

The trade area for a retail activity centre is based on a range of factors including:

• the size and composition of retail facilities in the subject centre,

• the relative proximity and composition of other retail centres,

• road and other transport access to and from the centre,

• physical barriers such as major roads, rivers and rail lines, and

• residential development patterns.

The main trade area defined for the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is shown in Map 3.1 and takes into account our assessment of likely trading patterns.



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The trade area describes the geographic region within which a centre is an important destination for shoppers wishing to visit the type of retail offered by that centre. Typically, around 70% to 90% of retail turnover at an activity centre is derived from residents of the main trade area, with the balance in trade coming from beyond this area.

The main trade area (MTA) for the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is defined as follows:

• Primary Trade Area (PTA) – includes the town of Bacchus Marsh as well as rural hinterland which is generally the area incorporating the Moorabool–Bacchus Marsh statistical local area (SLA);

• Secondary Trade Area (STA) – includes the towns of Ballan, Blackwood, Gordon and Mount Edgerton as well as a rural hinterland which generally comprises the Moorabool–Ballan SLA.

The overall MTA generally includes most of the area between Melton in the east and Ballarat in the west. Although the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is easily the largest and most comprehensive retail and commercial centre in the MTA, as described in Section 3.1, a number of larger and higher‐order centres in Ballarat, Melton and Melbourne are easily accessible to MTA residents.

3.3 Trade Area Population

Socio‐Economic Characteristics

A summary of the socio‐economic characteristics of the MTA as sourced from the 2006 ABS Census of Population and Housing is shown in Table 3.2 below. For comparison purposes, information for the MTA is compared with the benchmark for Victoria.

The key socio‐economic features of residents of the MTA include the following:

• Per capita income‐levels in the MTA are 10% lower than the Regional Victoria benchmark;

• The proportion of households in the MTA earning more than $2,000 per week of 14.9% is lower than the Victorian average of 17.8%;

• The average household size in the MTA (2.74) is slightly above the Victorian average (2.57);

• The MTA has a high proportion of the population aged 14 years or less (3.8% higher), yet a relatively lower share aged between 15 and 44 years (0.8% lower). There is a higher share of the population aged 45 to 65 years (additional 2%) relative to the Victoria benchmark;

• The median age of residents in the MTA of 37 years is the same as the Victorian average;

• The MTA has a high share of the population Australian‐born (87.2%), and this is consistent with many rural and regional areas of Australia;

• Detached dwellings are the preferred dwelling type in the MTA, accounting for 93% of total dwellings relative to 78% across the State. There is a below average share of semi‐detached and unit/apartment dwellings;

• The median housing loan repayment in the MTA is 6% lower than for Victoria; and

• The median rental payment in the MTA is 18% below the Victorian average.



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In general, the latest 2006 Census results show that the population of the Moorabool Region has moderate income levels. Although the average household income level in the Region ($22,620) is below the total Victorian average ($25,150), it is above the Regional Victorian average ($21,490). Moreover, a higher share of households in the PTA earn $2,000 or more per week (16%) compared with the Regional Victoria average (10%). The population in the PTA also tends to be younger than for the surrounding region, and has relatively high housing costs as measured by the levels of mortgage and rental payments.

Table 3.2 Summary of Main Trade Area Socio‐Economic Characteristics, 2006

IndicatorPrimary Trade

AreaSecondary Trade Area

Main Trade Area

Total Victoria

IncomeMean household income per capita (annual) $23,022 $21,479 $22,621 $25,146Variation from Total Victoria ‐8.4% ‐14.6% ‐10.0%% of h'holds earning $2,000pw or more 16.2% 11.5% 14.9% 17.8%Average household size 2.79 2.61 2.74 2.57Age Structure0‐14 years 23.5% 21.8% 23.1% 19.3%15‐24 years 13.6% 11.1% 12.9% 13.7%25‐44 years 26.9% 26.3% 26.8% 28.8%45‐64 years 25.4% 29.9% 26.6% 24.6%65 years and over 10.6% 10.8% 10.6% 13.7%Median age (years) 36 39 37 37Place of BirthAustralia 87.7% 85.7% 87.2% 74.5%Other Major English Speaking Countries 7.4% 7.9% 7.5% 6.9%Other overseas born 4.9% 6.4% 5.3% 18.5%% English only spoken at home 96.1% 96.1% 96.1% 78.5%Occupied Private DwellingsDetached 92.7% 95.4% 93.4% 77.5%Semi‐detached 0.7% 2.2% 1.1% 9.1%Flat/unit or apartment 5.8% 0.7% 4.3% 12.6%Other 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7%Home OwnershipFully owned 34.0% 36.2% 34.6% 37.3%Being purchased 47.0% 50.1% 47.9% 36.6%Renting 18.6% 13.2% 17.1% 25.4%Housing CostsMedian housing loan repayment (monthly) $1,224 $1,083 $1,186 $1,262Variation from Total Victoria ‐3.0% ‐14.2% ‐6.0% ‐% with repayments above $2,000 per month 12.8% 9.2% 11.7% 19.1%Median rental payment (weekly) $160 $142 $156 $190Variation from Total Victoria ‐16.1% ‐25.6% ‐18.0% ‐OccupationManagers & professionals 27.3% 29.3% 27.8% 34.9%Clerical & sales workers 35.8% 29.1% 34.0% 34.0%Technicians & trades workers 16.9% 18.7% 17.3% 14.3%Machinery operators & drivers 10.1% 10.4% 10.2% 6.7%Labourers & related workers 9.9% 12.5% 10.6% 10.1%

Source: 2006 ABS Census of Population and HousingNote: MESC Major English Speaking Countries ‐ Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, UK,



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Journey to Work Data

Analysis of Journey to Work data from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing shows that 30% of the jobs undertaken by residents of the MTA are actually located outside the MTA boundary. This includes over 800 people whose place of employment is located in Melbourne. These figures highlight the fact that Bacchus Marsh is to a significant extent a commuter suburb for Melbourne, although relative to Melton (40% commuter rate) the MTA is relatively more self‐sufficient in employment terms.

Map 3.2 on the following page shows the broad geographic spread of employment for residents of the MTA

MTA Population

Estimates of the MTA population have been prepared based on official ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) data for 2001 and 2006, as well as our own estimate of the 2008 population based on more recent data.

In 2006 the MTA population was estimated at 22,800 persons, and this represented an average increase of 280 persons or 1.3% per annum since 2001. This rate of population growth has been more moderate than previous population projections prepared by Council and the State Government.

Table 3.3 Main Trade Area Population Trends and Forecasts, 2001 to 2031

Population (no.)Primary 15,440 16,590 17,160 18,140 21,510 24,950Secondary 5,940 6,210 6,350 6,570 7,220 7,870

Main Trade Area 21,380 22,800 23,520 24,710 28,730 32,820Average Annual Growth Primary 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5%Secondary 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%Main Trade Area 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%Average Annual Growth Primary 230 290 330 340 340Secondary 50 70 70 70 70Main Trade Area 280 360 400 400 410Source: Essential Economics, Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy, ABS Regional Population Statistics, DSE "Victoria in Future 2004"Note: Totals subject to rounding

20312001 2006 2011 20212008

Population forecasts to 2031 have been prepared, having regard for the “Victoria in Future 2004” projections prepared by the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment adjusted for current population levels. These forecasts were also prepared with the assistance of Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy.

The MTA is forecast to continue experiencing relatively consistent population growth over the foreseeable future, with the total population forecast to reach 32,820 persons by 2031.

Over the next 23 years therefore, the MTA population is forecast to increase by a total of approximately 10,000 persons (net) at an average annual growth rate of 1.5% per annum.



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Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Trade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade AreaTrade Area

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Bacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus MarshBacchus Marsh

Mount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount HelenMount Helen

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DaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesfordDaylesford

MeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMeltonMelton

BallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallanBallan

GisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborneGisborne

SunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunburySunbury

SydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenham

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SunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshineSunshine

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KynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKynetonKyneton

MelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourneMelbourne

GeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelongGeelong

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Bacchus Marsh /Ballan SLAsJourney To Work Profile (workers)

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Source: MapInfo and ABS 2006 censusProduced by: Essential EconomicsMap 3.2 Bacchus Marsh Main Trade Area ‐ Journey To Work Profile



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Although much of this growth is expected to occur in new residential areas on the fringe of the existing Bacchus Marsh urban area, there will also be opportunities for infill development, including areas within the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre. This trend towards semi‐detached housing or units/apartments in established areas will be assisted by an ageing population and demographic changes which are driving lower average household sizes.

3.4 Main Trade Area Retai l Spending

Per Capita Retail Spending

Estimates of per capita retail spending by MTA residents have been prepared using the “MarketInfo” micro‐simulation model which utilises ABS Household Expenditure Survey, ABS Census and a range of other socio‐economic indicators to prepare spending estimates on a small area basis. Essential Economics has prepared these spending estimates with the assistance of Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy.

As shown in Table 3.4 below, per capita retail spending by MTA residents is approximately 8% below the Victorian average. This is in part a function of the socio‐economic profile of the MTA, although regional areas generally tend to have lower overall levels of retail spending relative to metropolitan Melbourne. On this basis, per capita retail spending in Bacchus Marsh is relatively consistent with average spending across Regional Victoria.

Table 3.4 Main Trade Area, Per Capita Retail Spending, 2008 ($2008)

Per Capita Spending ($2008)Primary 4,460 1,360 4,860 410 11,090Secondary North 4,440 1,110 4,280 380 10,210Main Trade Area 4,460 1,290 4,710 400 10,860Victoria Average 4,650 1,680 5,000 470 11,800Var'n from Victorian Average Primary ‐4% ‐19% ‐3% ‐13% ‐6%Secondary North ‐5% ‐34% ‐14% ‐19% ‐13%Main Trade Area ‐4% ‐23% ‐6% ‐15% ‐8%Source: MarketInfo; Essential Economics; Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy

Total RetailFood

CateringTrade Area

Food, Liquor and

GroceriesServicesNon Food

Spending by MTA residents on day‐to‐day non‐discretionary items, in particular groceries, tends to be less sensitive to socio‐economic characteristics and this is reflected in Table 3.4. In contrast, spending on discretionary products, such as food catering which includes spending on cafes and restaurants as well as Takeaway food, is well below the benchmark average.

Total Retail Spending

Table 3.5 summarises current and forecast retail spending by MTA residents between 2008 and 2031 (expressed in constant 2008 dollars).These figures are based on the population estimates and forecasts prepared in Table 3.3 and the per capita retail spending estimates in Table 3.4, and also take into account real growth in per capita spending of 1% per annum over time.



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Total spending by MTA residents in 2008 is estimated at approximately $255 million, and this is forecast to increase to approximately $449 million by 2031 as a result of population and real spending growth. This spending growth will support both improved turnover at existing traders, as well as additional retail floorspace at centres including the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.

Table 3.5 Main Trade Area Retail Spending, 2008 to 2031 ($2008m)

Retail Category 2008 2011 2021 2031 Growth p.a (%)Primary Trade AreaFLG $76.7m $83.5m $109.4m $140.2m 2.7%Food Catering $23.4m $25.5m $33.4m $42.8m 2.7%Non‐Food $83.4m $90.8m $119.0m $152.4m 2.7%Services $7.0m $7.6m $10.0m $12.8m 2.7%

Total Retail $190.5m $207.5m $271.7m $348.2m 2.7%Secondary Trade AreaFLG $28.2m $30.0m $36.4m $43.9m 1.9%Food Catering $7.1m $7.5m $9.1m $11.0m 1.9%Non‐Food $27.2m $28.9m $35.1m $42.3m 1.9%Services $2.4m $2.6m $3.1m $3.7m 1.9%

Total Retail $64.9m $69.0m $83.8m $100.9m 1.9%Main Trade AreaFLG $104.9m $113.6m $145.9m $184.1m 2.5%Food Catering $30.5m $33.0m $42.5m $53.8m 2.5%Non‐Food $110.6m $119.8m $154.1m $194.7m 2.5%Services $9.4m $10.2m $13.1m $16.5m 2.5%

Total Retail $255.3m $276.5m $355.5m $449.1m 2.5%Note: In 2008 dollars and including GST. Real per capita growth rate ‐ 1.0%

3.5 Market Assessment

A market share analysis of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre has been prepared in order to assess the market performance of the centre and assist in identifying the potential for retail floorspace growth and change in the centre.

An estimate of retail turnover in the Bacchus marsh Town Centre in 2008 is shown in Table 3.6. These estimates are based on our observations of the trading performance in the centre, combined with reference to relevant retail industry benchmarks. Total retail turnover has then been allocated to MTA residents based on likely trading patterns for retailers in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.

Overall retail turnover in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is estimated at approximately $127 million in 2008 (rounded), including $79 million (rounded) in food turnover. The overall trading level in the centre is estimated at $6,240/m2 is a relatively strong overall trading level. However, this high overall trading level is influenced by the relatively high share of floorspace occupied by Food, Liquor and Grocery traders in the centre and this is traditionally a category which generates a high level of sales per square metre of floorspace.

Based on likely trading patterns, it is estimated that approximately 90% or $114 million of turnover at the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is derived from MTA residents.



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Table 3.6 Bacchus Marsh Town Centre Estimated Retail Turnover, 2008 ($2008)

Retail CategoryRetail

Floorspace

(m2)

Trading Level ($/m2)

Retail Turnover ($m)

Share to MTA Residents (%)

Turnover to MTA

Residents ($m)

Food, Liquor and Groceries 7,780 8,500 66.1 90% 59.5Café and Restaurant 880 5,300 4.7 90% 4.2Takeaway Food 1,450 5,300 7.7 90% 6.9Total Food 10,110 7,763 78.5 90% 70.6Apparel 2,880 5,200 15.0 90% 13.5Homewares 2,270 5,000 11.4 90% 10.2Bulky Merchandise 1,070 5,000 5.4 90% 4.8Leisure 1,950 6,000 11.7 90% 10.5Total Non‐Food 8,170 5,309 43.4 90% 39.0Services 2,090 2,500 5.2 90% 4.7Total Retail 20,370 6,239 127.1 90% 114.4Source: Essential Economics; Tim Nott Economic Analysis + Strategy

Market Share Analysis

An estimate of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre’s current market share of MTA spending is shown in Table 3.7. This analysis is based on the sales to MTA residents shown in Table 3.6 and the MTA retail spending estimate in Table 3.5. According to this analysis, the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is estimated to have a MTA market share of approximately 45% in 2008.

Table 3.7 Bacchus Marsh Town Centre Market Share, 2008 ($2008)

Retail CategoryRetail TO to MTA

Residents, 20081Available Retail Spending, 2008

Market Share, 2008

Food, Liquor and Groceries 59.5 104.9 56.7%Café and Restaurant 4.2 13.0 32.3%Takeaway Food 6.9 17.5 39.6%Total Food 70.6 135.4 52.2%Apparel 13.5 28.0 48.2%Homewares 10.2 23.2 44.0%Bulky Merchandise 4.8 27.0 17.8%Leisure 10.5 32.5 32.4%Total Non‐Food 39.0 110.6 35.3%Services 4.7 9.4 50.0%Total Retail 114.4 255.3 44.8%Source: Essential Economics1. TO = Turnover, MTA = Trade Area

This market share is relatively high for a centre serving primarily a large neighbourhood retail role and which includes a focus on basic day‐to‐day retail items. The market share performance reflects a number of factors, including the following:

• The centre is centrally‐located and accessible to the MTA residents;



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• The centre serves a relatively broad town centre role as a key community, commercial and administrative hub to the surrounding region, in addition to its neighbourhood‐level retail function;

• The lack of another major competing retail destination in the MTA; and

• The centre offers a relatively comprehensive range of food, liquor and grocery items.

Retail Floorspace Growth

A forecast of supportable retail floorspace at the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre has been prepared based on the forecast retail spending growth identified for the MTA in the period to 2031 in Table 3.5, the maintenance of Bacchus Marsh Town Centre’s current market share shown in Table 3.7 and real retail turnover growth of 0.5% per annum for existing traders.

On this basis, an achievable and sustainable increase in retail floorspace at the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is as follows:

• An additional 7,000m2 of floorspace between 2008 and 2021;

• A further 6,000m2 of new retail floorspace between 2021 and 2031.

A total of 13,000m2 of additional retail floorspace is therefore considered supportable at the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre by 2031. This would result in total occupied retail floorspace of approximately 33,500m2 in 2031, or an increase of 65% on existing levels.

It is expected that some of this growth in occupied retail floorspace will involve the utilisation of some of the existing vacant retail floorspace in the centre. The existing vacancy levels in the centre are currently excessive, and it is important that over time this vacancy rate declines to more closely reflect the operation of a vibrant and successful activity centre.

However, it is also important to recognise that some of the vacant floorspace currently in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre is as a result of poorly designed and located tenancies. Even with strong growth in supportable retail floorspace in the centre, these tenancies will be difficult for retailers to successfully occupy. As a result, where there are redundant retail tenancies, Council should encourage the refurbishment or redevelopment of this floorspace in order to meet minimum retail industry standards, or otherwise encourage an alternative non‐retail use.

Regardless of how additional floorspace is provided, the ability to achieve this increase will be subject to the physical constraints associated with the centre and the need to ensure that floorspace in the centre is well designed and functional. It is important to note that poorly designed retail floorspace that has neither exposure nor accessibility to potential customers is likely to be vacant, irrespective of the retail‐economic factors involved.

3.6 Non‐Retai l Development Opportunities

The commercial office market in Bacchus Marsh has only modest growth prospects over coming years, although some ongoing growth is anticipated in‐line with population growth and the requirements of the resident population for supporting commercial and business services.

For the foreseeable future the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre and Bacchus Marsh urban area generally, lacks the critical mass of population and economic activity required to drive a large‐scale office sector. A



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further factor is the high share of the local workforce who commute to Melbourne and other areas for work, as this in effect further reduces the opportunities for local business linkages and synergies.

Nevertheless, over time, the incremental growth or redevelopment of office space in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre will occur and is encouraged wherever possible. In particular, opportunities exist or can be expected to emerge for further development of medical consulting suites and other allied health facilities in proximity to the Bacchus Marsh hospital. The ongoing redevelopment and refurbishment of existing office space in the centre is also encouraged to ensure that the quality of office stock in the centre remains strong, and therefore appealing to new and expanding office‐based firms.

Where possible, the form and location of future office development in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre should avoid interfering with the core retailing functions present in the centre, particularly in the high intensity areas around Main Street.

3.7 Conclusion

In functional terms the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre serves a retail role similar to that of a large neighbourhood activity centre: the retail sector is dominated by basic grocery and convenience oriented shopping, with a limited presence of higher‐order comparison shopping categories. The centre serves a main trade area (MTA) generally defined to include most of the rural area between Melton in the east and Ballarat in the west, although a number of much larger and higher‐order centres in Ballarat, Melton and Melbourne are easily accessible to MTA residents. The 2008 population of the MTA is estimated at 23,520 persons and this is forecast to increase to 32,820 persons in 2031. Total spending by MTA residents is estimated at $255 million in 2008. Approximately 45% of this available spending is directed to the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre and, assuming this share continues, forecasts show there is demand for an additional 13,000m2 of supportable retail floorspace in the town centre by 2031.



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4 OPPORTUNITY ANALYS IS

This chapter of the report provides input to the Bacchus marsh Structure Plan by describing the potential opportunities for growth and change in the land use within the study area.

4.1 Opportunities and Recommendations by Precinct

Main Street West

1 Promote the continued role of the Main Street West precinct as a high activity street‐based precinct incorporating a mix of retail, commercial and leisure related facilities. The precinct should continue to present attractively and fulfil its role as the “face” of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre to visitors.

2 Encourage ongoing development which provides street‐level activity and a high degree of pedestrian amenity. Build on the existing high quality street environment on parts of Main Street and in Church Street.

3 Promote the redevelopment and refurbishment of redundant tenancies and buildings, including the former Foodworks site on Main Street.

4 Support the role of the Foodworks supermarket as an important anchor tenant generating significant activity in the precinct. Promote opportunities to improve the permeability between the Foodworks in the north and the Main Street shops to the south.

5 Encourage opportunities to improve the leisure‐oriented retail and other facilities in this part of the centre. This can include an additional café/restaurant offer, fashion, accommodation and other uses which exploit the pleasant street‐based atmosphere of the Main Street strip. Exploit the opportunities provided by the Courthouse Hotel and Flanagans Inn.

6 Promote the integration of the Main Street West precinct with Village precinct to the east and the Grant Street precinct to the south‐west. In particular, the long term goal should be the effective integration of the Village and Main Street West precincts to provide a continuous and high quality mixed‐use precinct in the heart of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.

7 Where appropriate, encourage a broad mix of uses including commercial office and community facilities. In particular, support those uses most suited to the high intensity core of an activity centre.

Village Precinct

1 Support the role of the Village precinct as the location for a range of major anchor tenants including supermarkets, discount department store shopping and mini‐majors. Ensure these anchor tenants support a wide range of specialty shops and other traders which therefore reduce the need for local residents to travel to more distant centres in Melbourne and Ballarat.

2 Promote the redevelopment and long‐term expansion of the Village precinct to accommodate additional development to meet the growing needs of Bacchus Marsh and the surrounding trade area served by the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre.



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3 Encourage the integration of the Village Shopping Centre with the balance of the town centre through improvements to the interface between these components. In particular, promote the “opening up” of the Village centre to Main Street and seek future development which promotes integration with the Main Street West precinct to the west.

4 Promote the redevelopment and refurbishment of the Main Street strip, including the replacement of redundant floorspace, such as the vacant office precinct adjacent to the Village centre.

5 Ensure that the Main Street strip continues to provide a high quality street‐based pedestrian environment and has a functional east‐west link through the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre for cars and for those walking or cycling through the centre.

6 Consider the long‐term potential for development of large vacant land located south of Main Street, possibly including an opportunity for a significant mixed‐use development (including retail). Ensure that any development of the land is consistent with the desire to ensure a high degree of integration and accessibility throughout the Bacchus Marsh town centre. Any retail development should occur subject to provision of retail‐economic analysis which supports the viability of the proposal and considers the potential for trading impacts on the balance of the retail sector in the town centre.

7 Where appropriate, encourage a broad mix of uses, including commercial office and community facilities. In particular, support those uses most suited to the high intensity core of an activity centre.

Eastern Fringe Precinct

8 Support the redevelopment of the Civic precinct to incorporate a high quality mixed‐use development incorporating redeveloped community facilities in addition to retail and commercial uses. Ensure the development is oriented towards Main Street and integrates with the Village precinct immediately to the west.

9 Promote the continued low‐intensity development of commercial and business services located on Main Street east of Lord Street and towards the eastern edge of town. Allow for the continued slow process of transition from residential to commercial use in this eastern fringe area. However, ensure that at all times the commercial uses are low intensity in nature and that this area continues to be a high quality entry‐point to Bacchus Marsh and maintains the existing small town “feel”.

10 Support the role of the Eastern Fringe precinct as a location for a wide variety of community, social and civic facilities located in a low intensity fringe of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre, yet with a high degree of access and integration with the higher intensity uses located to the west.

11 Promote strong pedestrian and other non‐motorised links between the Eastern Fringe and the Village and Main Street West precincts to the west.

12 Encourage a built‐form and development pattern along Main Street which provides an orderly transition from the core town centre functions in the west, to the lower intensity uses occurring towards the eastern edge of the Bacchus Marsh urban area.



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Grant Street Precinct

1 Encourage an orderly transition from the core and higher intensity town centre functions at the northern end of the precinct to the lower intensity uses occurring further south. Ensure that the Grant Street precinct does not unnecessarily duplicate or fragment uses better located in the high activity core of the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre (i.e. Main Street West and Village precincts).

2 Encourage the ongoing development of medical and allied health services in proximity to the Bacchus Marsh Hospital. Support the Grant Street precinct as the location for a range of medical services which complement the hospital operations. This will both increase the range of services available to local residents and generate flow‐on economic benefits to the town.

3 Where appropriate, encourage a relatively dense built form including opportunities for shop‐top housing or two‐storey commercial development. A more dense built form will reduce the pressure for excessive ribbon‐style development along Grant Street, and will allow the precinct to be developed in an integrated manner and sharing public and private infrastructure. We do not advocate densities or building heights above acceptable standards of scale and local amenity.

4 Recognise the important role of Grant Street as a north‐south access route through the Bacchus Marsh urban area. Ensure that development occurs which recognises this role and promotes a mix of motorised and non‐motorised transit modes. Provide a high quality pedestrian environment along the length of the Grant Street precinct.

5 Provide a safe environment for customers utilising the convenience retail shops located on Grant Street. Ensure that at peak times there are opportunities for pedestrians and car‐based shoppers to safely stop and visit the shops. Recognise the willingness of many road users to stop and visit the shops and other uses along Grant Street.

6 Maximise the opportunities associated with Peppertree Park, including the swimming pool complex. The centre is ideally located in a central location to the Bacchus Marsh urban area and there are potential synergies with the nearby hospital (e.g. hydrotherapy). Use of the pool is currently limited to summer months.

Station Precinct

1 Investigate opportunities for the provision of a small retail node adjacent to the Bacchus Marsh rail station (no more than say, 200m2 or two small shops). Ensure that any retail node is accessible to both commuters and residents of the surrounding residential areas.

2 Promote a high quality pedestrian environment in proximity to the station and linking with surrounding uses including the industrial area, Maddingley Park, Bacchus Marsh College etc.

3 Allow for the continued operation of the light industrial area east of the station. This area is an important source of income and employment in the Bacchus marsh community. Although in terms of some policy goals, the location of these industrial uses is sub‐optimal in view of the area’s proximity to the station, there is not a sufficient need at present for measures seeking to relocate these industrial uses to an alternative location.



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4.2 Opportunities for Overall Bacchus Marsh Town Centre

Having regard for the analysis contained in this report and the precinct‐based opportunities identified in the previous section, the following points described key issues to be addressed in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre structure plan:

1 Support the ongoing growth and development of the retail and commercial sector in the town centre. The analysis in Chapter 3 – Market Assessment, identifies the potential for 13,000m2 of additional retail floorspace in the town centre by 2031. This analysis should be considered indicative only, however it does identify the potential for additional retail facilities in the town centre to serve the growing population of the region. Also, there are opportunities to improve the quality and range of retail facilities in the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre in order to reduce escape spending levels.

2 Improvements to the level of integration within the town centre are likely to provide significant benefits to both town centre traders and the general community. At present, particularly in the three precincts identified along Main Street, there is a lack of genuine integration and cross‐use of facilities; this situation contributes to the lack of synergies between traders, and is ultimately the underlying reason for the high vacancy levels that exist in the centre.

3 There are opportunities for medium density residential development to occur either within or immediately adjacent to the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre. At present there are few opportunities for this housing type, and this represents a significant gap in the housing choice available in Bacchus Marsh. The ageing of the population means there are also opportunities to provide retirement or other aged accommodation in proximity to the facilities and services provided by the town centre.

4 The development of community and social infrastructure offers an opportunity to consolidate the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre and create synergies associated with the shared use of public and private infrastructure. Although retail and commercial facilities are most closely associated with the operation of the town centre, the potential for other social infrastructure to contribute to achieving desired outcomes for the Bacchus Marsh Town Centre should be encouraged.

Bacchus Marsh Retail and Commercial Assessment · Final report Austin Miller 15 September 2008 John...

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Transcript of Bacchus Marsh Retail and Commercial Assessment · Final report Austin Miller 15 September 2008 John...