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European Heat Pump Market and StatisticsReport 2015

ehpa.org

Cover pictures of the European Heat Pump

Market and Statistics Report 2015:

In order to make the application potential of heat pump technology more visible, the cover page of the European Heat Pump Market and Statistics Report 2015shows 6 examples of successful heat pump applications.

Example 1 Portopiccolo Sistiana (Trieste - Italy)

Photo: © Clivet

Commissioning: 2015

Building type: multipurpose: residential and touristic village (houses, restaurant, shops, hotel)

Heat source: sea water (Oceano-thermal WSHP System)

Heat pump type: 17 water-to-water reversible heat pumpsby Clivet + 611 terminal units by Clivet

Service: heating, cooling and domestic hot water

Source ground water temperature is more or less temperature: constant throughout the year at around

13°C. Sea water temperature varies from9°C in winter to 28°C in summer.

Supply 7 °C for chilled water and 40 °C for temperature: hot water Heating capacity: 7.4 MW

Heating capacity: 2.2 MW

Cooling capacity: 4.4 MW

Example 2 Edeka Buschkühle, Germany

Photo: © Daikin

Company: Daikin

The 2 Conveni-Pack systems supply 32 metres of service counters,12.5 metres of convenience fridges, one cooling storage room for fruit, an air curtain and five indoor units; the ZEAS systemsupplies two deep freezers with a total capacity of 5 kW.

System: k 2 x Refrigeration condensing units formedium temperature refrigeration(Conveni-Pack)

k 1 x Refrigeration condensing unit forlow-temperature refrigeration (ZEAS)

Example 3 Schelderode, Belgium

Photo: © Ittech BVBA

Company: Ittech BVBA

Commissioning: 2013

Building type: Training facility (commercial)

Heat Source: Brine water

Heat Pump type: NIBE F1345-30

Source and Brine source. A high temperature circuitflow temperature: on 45°C for pool heating and a low

temperature circuit on maximum 30°Cdepending on outside temperature.

Heating capacity: The heat pump has a maximal capacity of30.7 kW under the conditions 0/35°EN14511. 70000 kWh/year in this project.

Example 4 Kaffee Partner, Germany

Photo: © Daikin

Building type: Office

A chiller was planned in the original concept; but then it wasdecided to install 7 VRV systems (total cooling capacity approx.272 kW) leading to a lower investment, a reduction in energyand less required space. In total, 70 offices and meeting roomson four floors are air conditioned.

System: k 7 x VRV III outdoor units (heat pump) k 3 x condensing unit for air handling

application k 15 x concealed ceiling units k 69 x 4-way blow cassette units

Example 5 Stiebel Eltron

Photo: © Stiebel Eltron

Commissioning: November 2013

Heat source: Brine

Heat pump type: Ground Source Heat Pump

Building type: Multi residential apartment building

Service: Apartments for rent

Special The electricity produced from 135 kWp PV characteristics: installed on the roof is used to run the

heat pumps (2xWPL 52 and 1xWPL 27HT)to maximise the self-consumption. If thePV generators produce excess electricity,heat pump is turned on and the additionalstorage tanks are loaded. The extra energysaved during a sunny day will be used farinto the night without having to switch onthe heat pumps.

Capacity: Total of 135 kW for heating (4 200 m²living area) and domestic hot water for 58 apartments.

Example 6 Markthal, Rotterdam

Photo: © Markthal Rotterdam

k Situated in the heart of the centre of Rotterdam the markethall, opened in October 2014, measures no less than 80 000m2. It accommodates 20 shops, 8 restaurants, a supermarket,a parking garage, 228 apartments, and a market square withapproximately 100 food stands.

k In order to achieve maximum sustainability for this bow-shaped complex, a thermal storage system was installed toprovide cooling and heating for the Markthal as well as theoffice building located next to it.

k A passive, zero-energy ventilation system was alsoimplemented.

k Thermal storage with heat pumps

k Exchange of hot and cold air between the shops andapartments and the thermal storage with heat pumps

3 4 6

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5

European Heat Pump Market and StatisticsReport 2015

Authors

Thomas NowakPhone: +32 2 400 10 17Email: [email protected]

Pascal WestringPhone: +32 24 00 10 17Email: [email protected]

European Heat Pump AssociationRue d’Arlon 63-67B-1040 Brussels

National Editors

AustriaSiegfried Kopatsch Verband Wärmepumpe AustriaPhone: +43 732 600 300Email: [email protected]

BelgiumJan Lhoëst Warmtepomp Platform VlaanderenPhone: +32 2 218 87 47Email: [email protected]/warmtepompen

Czech RepublicJosef Slovacek Czech Heat Pump Association AVTCPhone: +420 724 324 445Email: [email protected] | www.avtc.cz

Milan PoláčekTepelná čerpadla AITPhone: +420 724 324 445Email: [email protected]

DenmarkLars Abel VarmepumpefabrikanternePhone: +45 72 20 12 71Email: lars.abel@varmepumpefabrikanterne.dkwww.varmepumpefabrikanterne.dk

EstoniaJüri Miks Estonian Heat Pump AssociationESPELPhone: +372 50 86 772Email: [email protected] www.espel.ee

FinlandJussi Hirvonen Finnish Heat Pump AssociationSULPUPhone: +358 505 00 27 51Email: [email protected]

FranceValérie Laplagne UniclimaPhone: +33 1 45 05 72 69Email: [email protected]

GermanyTony Krönert | BWP GermanyPhone: +49 30 208 799 711Email:[email protected]

HungaryTarek MaiyalehHungarian Heat Pump AssociationPhone: +361 463 26 24Email: [email protected]

IrelandJonathan Jennings and Richard Sherlock Heat Pump Association of IrelandEmail: [email protected]

ItalyAlberto Spotti ANIMA / AssoclimaPhone: +39 02 45 1 85 55Email: [email protected] www.assoclima.it

The NetherlandsPeter Wagener Dutch Heat Pump AssociationDHPAPhone: +31 55 506 00 05Email: [email protected] www.dhpa-online.nl

Reinoud Segers Statistics NetherlandsEmail: [email protected] www.cbs.nl

NorwayBård Baardsen | NorskVaermepumpefoerening NOVAPPhone: +47 22 80 50 30Email: [email protected] www.novap.no

PolandSebastian Kaletka Polish Organization of Heat PumpTechnology Development PORT PCPhone: +48 664 979 972Email: [email protected] www.portpc.pl

PortugalNuno Roque | PortugueseAssociation of IndustrialRefrigeration and Air Conditioning Phone: +351 213 224 [email protected] | www.apirac.pt

Slovak RepublicPeter Tomlein Slovak Association for Cooling and Air Conditioning SZ CHKTPhone: +42 124 564 69 71Email: [email protected]

SpainPilar Budí Asociacion De Fabricantes DeEquipos De Climatización AFECPhone: +34 91 402 76 38 Email: [email protected] www.afec.es

SwedenAnne-Lee BertenstamSwedish Refrigeration & Heat PumpAssociation SKVPPhone: +46 8 522 275 05Email: [email protected] www.skvp.se

SwitzerlandStephan Peterhans Swiss Heat Pump Association FWSPhone: +41 31 350 40 65Email: [email protected]

United KingdomKelly Butler | BEAMA Domestic Heat Pump AssociationPhone: +44 0 20 7793 3000Email: [email protected] www.beama.org.uk

ChinaCooper Zhao | Cooper ZhaoInternational Copper AssociationEmail:[email protected]

JapanJuriko Terao International Department &Technical Research DepartmentHeat Pump & Thermal StorageTechnology Center of Japan (HPTCJ)Phone: +81 3 5643 2416Email: [email protected] www.hptcj.or.jp

Contribution Chapter 2+3Sander Ramp European Heat Pump AssociationEmail: [email protected] www.ehpa.org

Contribution Chapter 4Philippe Nellissen | EmersonClimate Technologies GmbHEric Delforge | Mayekawa Europe

© 2015 The European Heat Pump Association AISBL (EHPA)Rue d’Arlon 63-67B-1040 BrusselsPhone: +32 2 400 10 17Fax: +32 2 400 10 [email protected]

Design byEbmeyer & Ebmeyer GmbH, Munich

www.2-se.de

The content of this publication may not be copied, reproduced, republished, downloaded, posted,broadcast or transmitted in any way without EHPA's writtenpermission.

This report was prepared to the best of our knowledge. The opinions and interpretations presented are those of the authors and editors and do not necessarily apply to all industry actors.Neither the authors, the editors nor EHPA shall be held liable or responsiblefor any loss, cost damages or expensesincurred or sustained by anyone resulting from use of this report.

3Contents

Contents

Editorial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1 European Heat Pump Market and Statistics Report 2014 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2 European Energy Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

3 European Legislation affecting Heat Pumps: 2014 Update . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

3.1 Multi-dimensional topics under the Energy Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

3.2 GHG emission reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

3.3 Energy efficiency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

3.4 Renewable energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

3.5 Supply security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

3.6 Competitiveness & local jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

3.7 Affordability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

3.8 Smart grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

3.9 EHPA targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

4 Industry and Technology Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

5 European Heat Pump Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

5.1 European heat pump market development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

5.2 EU country overview: EU-21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

5.3 Market penetration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

5.4 Market segmentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5.5 An economic force and a provider of local labour:the European heat pump industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

5.6 Heat pumps in the energy debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

5.7 Outlook for 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

6 Focus reports on selected European markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

6.1 Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

6.2 Belgium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

6.3 Czech Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

6.4 Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

6.5 Estonia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

6.6 Finland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

6.7 France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

6.8 Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

6.9 Hungary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

6.10 Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

6.11 Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

6.12 Lithuania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

6.13 The Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

6.14 Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

6.15 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

6.16 Portugal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

6.17 Slovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

6.18 Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

6.19 Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

6.20 Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

6.21 United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

7 Focus reports on selected markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

7.1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

7.2 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

7.3 Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

7.4 USA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

Annex I | EHPA sales data acquisition and processing methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

Annex II | EHPA heat pump statistics: questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Annex III | Consolidated sales of heat pump units 2005– 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Annex IV | Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

List of figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

List of tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

4 Contents

5Editorial

Dear Reader,

It is time for the 2015 edition of Europe's heat pump markets and statistics report.We have worked a lot behind the scenes to improve the content of this edition evenfurther. Part of this work was a complete revision of the database backend of ourstatistics. This resulted not only in a streamlined and more uniform presentation of data in the report, but will eventually lead to an interactive online database that allows the user to evaluate available data according to his/her personalrequirements.

Data collection was complete end of July. A number of updates and revisionsexecuted since then have made the information presented today increasinglyaccurate.

On the content side we have improved the report’s consistency by adding generaldata from Eurostat sources, thus making the presented information more coherentand more reliable.

We then added historical sales data to each national chapter to make the countryreports more complete.

The European heat pump market continues to grow slowly: 2014 is the third yearof recovery with heat pump sales growing by roughly 3%. Initial data for 2015shows that this trend is going to continue.

We are optimistic that growth should accelerate further in the coming years, as anumber of policy measures already in place, among them the energy label,highlight the benefit of heat pump technology for the energy transition. Heatpumps have an untapped potential both towards the renewable and the energyefficiency targets. Their proper recognition will help achieve the current targets butwill also allow policy makers to announce more ambition.

The main limiting factor for our technology is still the price of fossil fuel and fossilfuel based systems. More precisely, it is the price ratio between alternative energysources and electricity. In many countries this ratio has deteriorated even further,reducing the traditional operating cost advantage of heat pump technology.

It is high time to take brave political decisions that result in the acknowledgmentof the benefits of heat pumps and to reimburse the technology for its positivecontribution to energy efficiency, supply security and grid stability. Heat pumps canand should be a cornerstone of European energy policy, to the benefit of theindividual and society at large.

Last, this report would not be what it is without the national editors, specialcontributors and the team in the EHPA office. We would like to thank them for theirwork, for input given and for critical comments made. We hope that you enjoyreading the report and if you do, please drop us a line on your perception of itsquality.

Thomas Nowak Pascal Westring

Editorial

T he number of heat pump units sold in the European heat pump marketincreased by 3.5% in 2014. A total of 796 746 units were sold in the 21European countries covered by this year’s EHPA report. Assuming a useful life of 20 years, the heat pump stock at the end of 2014 exceeds7.51 million units (see table 1-1).

SUM EU-11 SUM EU-21 TOTAL STOCK

2005 446 037 1 015 607

2006 504 428 1 525 401

2007 568 131 2 114 519

2008 770 538 2 918 976

2009 686 076 3 644 998

2010 671 392 800 388 4 437 530

2011 666 873 808 591 5 237 003

2012 621 818 750 436 5 979 042

2013 635 273 769 879 6 741 251

2014 659 911 796 746 7 517 019

The heat pump market continues to be governed by three major trends:

1. Air is and will remain the dominant energy source for heat pumps (note thatcooling-only units are not counted in the report, see Annex II).

2. Sanitary hot water heat pumps are the fastest growing heat pump segmentacross Europe. This category is the only one showing double-digit growth.Sanitary hot water units combine a heat pump and a hot water storage tank.They are either sold as stand alone units with the heat pump and the tank inone casing or as systems combining a heat pump and a separate tank.

3. Larger heat pumps for commercial, industrial and district heating applicationsare increasingly popular. They quite often use geothermal or hydrothermalenergy. However also here, air is an energy source used by a number ofinstallations. Air, water and ground can either carry renewable energy or wasteheat from processes. In the later case, this type of heat pump improves energyefficiency, but does not use a renewable source.

Compared to 2013 a total of 8 markets have reported a loss, however this wasovercompensated by growth in particular in the larger markets like France, Finlandand Spain. The group of top-10 markets by sales volume was led by France,followed by Italy and Sweden, with annual sales greater than 100 000 units inFrance and Italy. Germany, Finland, Norway and Spain exceed 50 000 sold units per year.

7Executive summary

European Heat Pump Marketand Statistics Report 2015Executive Summary

Table 1-1: Heat pumps inEurope – sales and stock,2005–2014

1

In relative terms, Ireland (+53.5%) and Lithuania (+52.1%) experienced by far thestrongest growth, followed by France (+27.1%) and Poland (+24.6%), all showingmore than 20% growth. These 4 top growth countries enjoy a positivedevelopment over the last two years, the French, Polish, Lithuanian and Estonianmarkets can look back at 4 years of growth now.

Growth in mature markets like France, Norway and Switzerland must be attributedat least partly to the renovation segment. This is a positive sign, as it also meansthat technology and business models to address this sector are developed and canbe used in other countries that will inevitably follow this evolution. After all thegrowth potential for heat pumps lies in the renovation sector.

Overall, the industry is optimistic for a continued market growth and moremarkets returning to growth in 2015 due to a positive legal environment.

Looking in more detail at the Scandinavian countries reveals a significant growthperspective. If all countries had the same market penetration as Sweden, theannual sales number of heat pumps in Europe would be 5 times todays... resultingin 4.9 million units sold per year and a stock of 36.9 million units in 2020 and 85.9million in 2030.

8 Executive summary

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Figure 1-2: Development of heat pumps sales in 21 European countries –growth heat map

Figure 1-1: Development ofheat pump sales in Europe2005–2014, by category

For policy makers, this is good news as it provides a huge potential to reduceEurope's energy demand for heating, cooling and hot water production.

In 2014, a total heat pump capacity of over 6.6 GW was installed producing approx.13 TWh of useful energy, integrating 8.15 TWh of renewables in heating andcooling and avoiding 2.09 Mt of CO2-equivalent emissions. An additional 4.7 TWhof primary energy was saved resulting in a reduced final energy demand of 10.42TWh. In order to produce the 2014 sales volume and to maintain the installedstock, a total of 43 465 man years of employment were necessary. Obviously realemployment related to the heat pump market is larger.

In aggregated terms, a total of more than 7.5 million heat pump units wereinstalled since 1995. This amounts to an installed thermal capacity of 66.3 GW.

All installed heat pumps produce 133.4 TWh of useful energy, 85.8 TWh of whichbeing renewable. Their use saved 109.3 TWh of final and 51.7 TWh of primaryenergy. The heat pumps stock helped to avoid 22.1 Mt of CO2 emissions.

Figure 1-3 shows the split of renewable energy production from heat pumps on acountry level. France is the country that produces the most renewable energy,followed by Sweden.

The heat pump stock in 2014 (heat pumps sold in the past twenty years)contributed to 22.1 Mt of greenhouse gas emission savings (see figure 1-4). Thedistribution of emission savings per country is very similar to that of renewableenergy production, since both calculations are directly linked to the number ofunits installed.

9Executive summary

Figure 1-3: RES from 2014heat pump stock, by country(in TWh)

10 Executive summary

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In summary, heat pump markets are growing slightly. In light of the total heatingmarket, this growth is insufficient to achieve the aim for decarbonisation ofheating and cooling by 2050. It needs brave governmental decision makers toaddress the elephant in the room: a distorted price mechanism that favours theuse of fossil fuels and fossil fuel technology. Heat pump emissions are coveredunder ETS due to the fact that electricity production (electricity being the auxiliaryenergy source used in more than 99% of all heat pumps sold) is covered. At thesame time the environmental damage of fossil fuel use is left for society to payfor. A perceived cheap way of heating is actually paid for via other budgets, namelyby health and environmental protection services.

The heat pump industry re-iterates its call on decision makers in the EuropeanCommission and the Member States to address this issue.

The heating and cooling strategy currently under development could be a goodvehicle to do so. In any case, it should make heat pumps a cornerstone.

Clearly, today's business as usual will not be enough to unearth the technology’spotential, instead significant government intervention is necessary to shape thesustainable energy supply in all Member States of the European Union.

Figure 1-4: Greenhousegas emissions saved by2013 heat pump stock,by country (in Mt)

Current energy consumption and the threat of climate changeIn older forecasts European energy consumption was expected to grow until 2030(see table 2-1). However, more recent assessments, such as those from IEA, expecta slight decline in overall European primary energy consumption towards 2030(see table 2-1). Under a continuation of current policies all scenarios forecast verymodest decline in consumption.

When trying to avert climate change, the current modest decline in energydemand is not enough. This situation is increasingly acknowledged by policymakers and think tanks, notably by the International Energy Agency (IEA), whichsent a clear and alarming message: current efforts, taking into account the impact of measures already announced by governments on improvement ofenergy efficiency and RES support, leave the world on a trajectory consistent withaverage temperature increase of 3,6°C. This can have devastating impact on theenvironment [1]. This year, G7 heads of state and governments announced totaldecarbonisation of the energy system before the end of this century and USPresident Barack Obama mentioned climate change as the greatest threat theworld is currently facing [2]. Therefore, in the EU (and elsewhere) policy-measuresare needed in order to significantly decrease our energy consumption by followingthe ‘energy efficiency first’ principle and to ensure supply of the remaining energydemand from renewable energy sources.

The extent of the challenge becomes obvious when considering that currently,over 70% of European energy is produced from fossil fuels. Another 14% of energy

11European energy trends

Table 2-1: Primary energyconsumption in the EU 27forecasts

Type (Mtoe) Eurostat POLES 2009 (IPTS) PRIMES 2009 (EC) WEO 2013 (IEA)

Present Baseline Mitigation Baseline Reference Present Current policies New policies 450 ppm

Year 2013 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2012 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030

Coal and Lignite 285 324 343 225 196 287 260 261 253 294 255 224 249 180 221 112

Oil 472 693 671 585 492 627 579 605 560 526 487 439 476 403 466 340

Gas 373 582 617 550 552 463 439 412 393 392 418 484 403 434 391 377

Nuclear 226 254 314 262 345 238 268 227 244 230 223 184 223 206 225 231

Renewables 196 268 351 331 356 209 263 279 305 199 254 304 263 330 268 391

Imports-exports n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2 -2 -2 -2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aof electricity

Total primary 1 566 2 121 2 296 1 952 1 941 1 822 1 807 1 782 1 753 1614 1 638 1 636 1 614 1 552 1 571 1 451energyconsumption

Total energy- 3 614 4 493 4 452 3 690 3 134 3 404 3 193 3 403 3 193 3442 3 238 3 108 3 147 2 701 2 972 2 035related CO2emission(Mt CO2)

2European Energy Trends

demand is covered by nuclear power and the rest comes from renewable energysources.

A sustainable energy system will most likely have to be based on a completereversal of these shares – over 70% of renewables and only a negligible share fromfossil and nuclear sources. Strong and decisive action promoting energy efficiencyand the deployment of renewable energy sources is needed in order to limit the increase of average global temperature to 2°C. To avoid a distorted marketmechanism, the immediate phase out of subsidies for fossil and nuclear energysources is necessary, yet difficult to achieve.

Under the 2030 climate and energy framework, the European Commission (EC)proposed targets of a 40% reduction in GHG emissions, 30% increase in energyefficiency and at least 27% of energy from renewables [3]. Many stakeholdersargued that these targets are not ambitious enough and they are bound to faildue to the fact that they are mandatory only on the EU level and not at MemberState level. Climate Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete has repeatedly stressedthat the targets are minimum values and expressed his believe in the possibilityof overachieving the targets.

The EU's long-term perspective, expressed in the Energy Roadmap 2050 is moreambitious. It sets a goal of an 80% – 95% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050 throughdomestic reductions alone (compared to 1990 levels) (see www.roadmap2050.eu).Achieving this goal makes a decarbonised heating and electricity sector mandatory.

Ambitious energy efficiency and GHG reduction targets are expected to have asignificant and much needed economic and environmental impact on theEuropean economy. Investment into the sector will contribute to a sustainableenergy supply and will provide local employment. The EC set up a StrategicInvestment Fund through the so-called Juncker Plan. This plan should attract large-scale investments in various sectors of the EU economy, amongst which therenewable energy sector. Ambitious targets would reduce uncertainty in themarket and may further encourage investments in energy efficiency andrenewables. It should reduce the costs of financing and lower the need for supportmechanisms. At the same time ambitious targets will contribute to technologicaldevelopment, diversification and increased competitiveness of the EU energysector on a global level.

Heat pumps provide the best available technologies for energy efficiency andrenewable energy integration. This is supported by calculations from the industry,but also by independent studies. According to MacKay (2008) if we replace all fossilfuel heaters with electric-powered heat pumps we can reduce the energy requiredto 25% of today’s levels [4].

12 European energy trends

Figure 2-1: Heat pumps at the heart of 100%renewable energy systems [6]

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In a recent publication from Heat Roadmap Europe, work package 2 of theSTRATEGO project, heat pumps are considered at the heart of a 100% renewableenergy system [5] [6].

A recent Ecofys study shows that heat pump technologies can contributeapproximately 47% of the necessary decrease of the GHG emissions in the EU´sbuilding sector by 2030 and thus also help governments achieve their long-termdecarbonisation targets for 2050 [7]. The study reveals, that a ‘business as usual’scenario without strong and decisive heat pump support will risk not achievingthe target at all (see figure 2-3, datapoint “without any heat pumps").

European import dependency The EU has limited access to fossil energy sources and thus imports more thanhalf of its energy consumption (see figure 2-4). Due to declining indigenousproduction import dependency is expected to increase, notably via new gaspipelines and LNG terminals [8]. Since a number of studies now point to a decreasein gas demand, it must be questioned, whether today’s infrastructure investmentsdo not end as stranded assets of the future [9].

Increased import dependency has a negative impact on supply security. A shortstudy by EHPA has revealed that the useful energy derived from gas imports fromRussia could be replaced in its entirety by adding 54 million heat pumps to thecurrent stock of 7.4 million; a move that would create local jobs, increase supplysecurity and ensure a long-term affordable, renewable and efficient energy supply.

Reliance on fossil fuel imports is a constant drain of financial resources out of Europe. In 2013, the bill for energy imports amounted to €545 billion, nearly€1.5 billion per day.


Figure 2-2: Total CO2-eqemissions for all countries [7]

Figure 2-3: EU energydependency per MemberState, 1995–2012 [10]


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Russia supplies 27% of the total EU gas demand through Ukraine. Disputesbetween Russia and Ukraine about natural gas prices caused several disruptionsof gas supply in the last decade, affecting some Eastern EU Member States.

As a response to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, the EC presented the Europeanenergy security strategy identifying main focus areas for boosting energy securityin Europe. This strategy consists measures, such as the completion of the internalenergy market, a unified external energy policy and strengthening emergency and solidarity mechanisms. Increasing indigenous energy production, includingrenewables deployments is also part of this strategy.

Before investing heavily in expensive and long term gas infrastructures, the EUshould carefully consider the need for these investments. The demand for gas has been overestimated the last years. E3G reports that in contrast to officialprojections, EU gas demand is falling and is now 23% below its peak. Demand isfalling across all three major sectors: power, industry and residential. 80% of gasdemand comes from seven western European nations with strong renewables andefficiency policies in place [12]. Compared to the year before, in 2013 natural gasdemand fell by 1.2% per cent, continuing the trend of a falling year-on-year gasdemand in Europe (-10.5% in 2011 and -2.2% in 2012) [11]. EC projections for gasconsumption had to be revised downwards every year since 2003.

Figure 2-4: Gas supplyorigins per Member State(2013 data) [11]

A continuous overestimation of gas demand is dangerous as inflated gasconsumption projections can skew the economic evaluation of new projects.

Investment in domestic and emission free renewable energy production andenergy efficiency simultaneously boosts Europe´s energy security, contributes tothe mitigation of the climate change and increases local employment, and thusthese objectives should be high on the EU energy strategy agenda.

Heat pumps can serve as immediate solution to this issue and significantlycontribute to the overall European energy security. In order to replace all importsof Russian natural gas for heating purposes by renewable and energy efficientdomestic production, around 54 million heat pump units should be installed. Thiscannot be done sufficiently fast and effective without support!

European RES H&C DevelopmentsAccording to the EC, current measures implemented by the EU Member States aresufficient to keep the EU on track with its 2020 renewable energy targets [13].However, not all Member States are on track to meet their individual targets andthe target trajectory is actually increasing between today and 2020.


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Since the heating and cooling sector is often not properly recognised, a change inthis perspective would enable EU Member States to achieve even more ambitiousgoals easily (see figure 2-6).

Today, heat is mainly generated from fossil fuels, predominantly gas. Renewableand energy efficient technologies must be supported in order to reap the potentialof the heating and cooling sector to reach the 2020 targets. According to ECOFYS(2013), reaching targets for the building sector would not be possible without heatpump technology at all. And, if sufficiently supported, heat pumps can lead to 47%savings of total CO2 emissions in the sector by 2030.

Sources

[1] IEA (2014) World Energy Outlook, p. 24[2] Australian Broadcast Corporation (2015). Barack Obama announces limits on US power plant emissions,

declares climate change greatest threat facing world. 4 August 2015. Available at:www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-04/obama-says-climate-change-greatest-threat-facing-world/6669828

[3] European Commission (2015). Energy Strategy. European Commission:https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy

[4] MacKay, D. J. C. (2008) Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, UK.[5] Heat Roadmap Europe (2015). Heat Roadmap Europe 3. Work Package 2 Stratego project.

Available at: www.heatroadmap.eu/publications.php[6] Connolly, D., K. Hansen & D. Drysdale (2015) Stratego. Creating National Energy Models for 2010

and 2050. [7] Ecofys (2013): Heat Pump Implementation Scenarios until 2030, Cologne.[8] Eurostat (2015). Energy production 2003 and 2013.

Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Energy_production,_2003_and_2013_(million_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent)_YB15.png

[9] Jones, D. M. Dufour & J. Gaventa (2015). Europe’s Declining Gas Demand. Trends and facts on European gas consumption. Available at:http://www.e3g.org/docs/E3G_Trends_EU_Gas_Demand_June2015_Final_110615.pdf

[10] Council of the European Union (2014). Commission Staff Document. In-depth study of European Energy Security. SWD(2014) 33 final. Available at: http://register.consilium.europa.eu/doc/srv?l=EN&f=ST%2010409%202014%20ADD%201

[11] Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) (2014). Annual Report on the Results of Monitoring the Internal Electricity and Natural Gas Markets in 2013.

[12] E3G (2015) Europe’s declining gas demand. Availabe at: http://e3g.org/news/media-room/europes-declining-gas-demand

[13] European Comission (2015). COM(2015) 293 final. Renewable energy progress report {SWD(2015) 117 final}.

[14] Progress reports


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17European legislation affecting heat pumps

3European Legislationaffecting Heat Pumps:2015 Update

A t the end of 2014 a new European Commission (EC) took office under theleadership of President Jean-Claude Juncker. President Juncker proposed a better coordinated working program of EU institutions and fleshed outten priorities for 2015. Some of these priorities will affect the heat pump industry.The most relevant and encompassing priority is:

A resilient Energy Union with a forward-looking climate change policy

➔ Follow-up to the 2030 energy package agreed last October

➔ Preparation of the EU role in the Paris Climate change conference in 2015

➔ Actions to strengthen energy security

The goal of a resilient Energy Union with an ambitious climate policy at its core is to give EU consumers – households and businesses – secure, sustainable,competitive and affordable energy. Achieving this goal will require a fundamentaltransformation of Europe's energy system. The Energy Union is structured aroundfive dimensions: supply security, internal energy market, energy savings, emissionsreductions and research & innovation. The Energy Union Package was presentedin February 2015.

In 2015 EHPA has re-structured its communication to show the coherence of heatpump technology with the dimensions of the Energy Union.

Figure 3-1: The Energy Unionflower: heat pumpscontribute to all fivedimensions (Source: EHPA)

supplysecurity

renewableenergy

GHG emissionreduction

competitivelocal jobs

smart grids

energyefficiency affordability

Heat pumpsolutions

Energy security

Decarbonisedeconomy

Energyefficiency

Research,innovation,

competitivenessIntegrated

market

➔ Energy Union (State of the Energy Union)➔ Heating and Cooling Strategy➔ Better Regulation Package➔ Communication on Waste to Energy➔ Circular Economy

➔ COP21➔ EU2020 and 2030 Climate and Energy framework➔ EU 2050 Roadmap➔ ETS➔ F-Gas Regulation

➔ Energy Efficiency Directive➔ EPBD➔ Energy labelling➔ Ecodesign➔ Ecolabel

➔ Renewable Energy Directive➔ RES self-consumption and support schemes

➔ European Energy Security Strategy

➔ Investment ➔ Research➔ Trade➔ State aid

➔ Energy costs and energy poverty

➔ Market Design➔ Storage➔ Demand response/smart appliances➔ Smart cities and grids

18 European legislation affecting heat pumps

EHPA policy structure: matching heat pump benefits with policy areas

Energy Union

GHG emissionreduction

energyefficiency

renewableenergy

supplysecurity

competitivelocal jobs

affordability

smart grids


3.1 Multi-dimensional topics under the Energy Union

3.1.1 Energy Union In 2015 the EC presented a vision for an ambitious Energy Union and in Februarythis vision was translated into a concrete Strategy. The idea of an Energy Union isa novelty, since it aims to transfer certain legislative powers to the EU level. Whilethis is a challenge, doing so is deemed to be a 'triple win' because an energystrategy agreed upon by the Member States of the European Union, yet executedby the EU as a single actor would provide benefits to consumers, the economy,and the environment. The announcement of the Strategy was thus followed byan action to secure support on the level of policymakers and society. Most notably,Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič started his so-called Energy Union Tour to discussthe content and benefits of an Energy Union with stakeholders and to collect theirviews. The results of the tour are expected to complement the EC’s analysis. Oneresult of the discussion with Member States are country-specific fiches, along withrecommendations. Once finalised, these fiches and recommendations will bemade public and will be part of the first State of the Energy Union speech, whichis envisaged for 18 November 2015.

The Energy Union roadmap, presented in February, shows the initiatives to bedeveloped as part of the Strategy, with a clear timetable for adoption andimplementation as well as respective responsibilities. A heating and coolingstrategy is part of this roadmap. Further, Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañeteannounced “energy efficiency first” as a fundamental principle of the EnergyUnion. This means that Member States are urged to give energy efficiency primaryconsideration in their policies and to consider energy efficiency as an energy sourcein its own right.

3.1.2 Heating and cooling strategyThe EU energy roadmap aims for an 80 to 95% decarbonisation of the energysector by 2050. This target cannot be achieved without a contribution from theHeating and cooling sector, since it currently represents around half of the EUenergy consumption [1] (with 84% still generated from fossil fuels). The ECannounced that the heating and cooling strategy would be a Communication, tobe executed mainly by the revised Renewable Energy Directive and the soon to berevised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The EC aims to present thestrategy at the end of 2015.

3.1.3 Better regulation packageThe 2014 European elections showed that many citizens are concerned with whatthey perceive as an undesirable level of EU involvement in their daily lives. Betterregulation is therefore a critical self-reflection to find out if the EU has acted onlywhere it is of added value. The aim of the Better Regulation agenda is also to makesure that law-making procedures remain at the highest standard in terms ofimpact assessment, transparency, public consultation, and implementation.

3.1.4 Circular EconomyThe EC is aiming to present a new, more ambitious circular economy strategytowards the end of 2015, to transform Europe into a more competitive resource-efficient economy, addressing a range of economic sectors, including waste. Acircular economy requires action at all stages of the lifecycle of products. TheWaste Framework Directive will also be revised under these new circular economyproposals.[2] Improvements in terms of resource and energy efficiency can bemade at all stages.[3]

3.2 GHG emission reduction

3.2.1 COP21The United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP21 (21st Conference of theParties) will be held in Paris in December 2015. The conference objective is toachieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nationsof the world. More specifically, the overarching goal is to reduce greenhouse gasemissions to limit the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2 degreesCelsius above pre-industrial levels.

On 25 February 2015, the EC presented the EU’s vision for a global climate changeagreement called the Paris Protocol.[4] The document:

➔ Outlines the national efforts to be made to achieve a 40% domestic GHGemission reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 (in line with the EuropeanCouncil's decision of October 2014 approved by the Environment Council on 6 March 2015).

➔ Recalls the EC's vision for a legally binding agreement, containing fair andambitious global commitments to reduce global GHG emissions by at least 60%below 2010 levels in 2050.

➔ Underlines the need for the Protocol to require GHG emissions reductions fromall sectors, including fluorinated gases.

3.2.2 EU 2020 and 2030 Climate and Energy frameworkThe 2020 climate and energy package is a set of binding legislation which aims toensure that the EU meets its ambitious climate and energy targets for 2020. Thesetargets, known as the "20-20-20" targets, set three key objectives for 2020:

➔ A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels;

➔ Raising the share of EU energy consumption from renewable resources to 20%

➔ A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency.

On 23 October 2014 EU leaders agreed on the domestic 2030 greenhouse gasreduction target of at least 40% compared to 1990 together with the other mainelements of the 2030 policy framework for climate and energy, as proposed by theEuropean EC in January 2014. The 2030 policy framework aims to make the EU’seconomy and energy system more competitive, secure and sustainable and alsosets a target of at least 27% for renewable energy and energy efficiency by 2030.The 2030 framework also takes into account the long-term perspectives set out bythe EC (such as the EU 2050 Roadmap).

3.2.3 EU 2050 RoadmapThe EC’s Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050 aimsto look beyond short-term objectives and set out a cost-effective pathway forachieving much deeper emission cuts by the middle of the century. All majoreconomies will need to make deep emission reductions if global warming is to beheld below 2°C compared to the temperature in pre-industrial times.

3.2.4 Emissions Trading SystemThe EU emissions trading system (ETS) is a key policy of the EU to combat climatechange. Putting a price on carbon is an important tool to reduce industrialgreenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. A higher carbon price also promotesincreased investment in clean, low-carbon technologies. The ETS, launched in2005, is now in its third phase, running from 2013 to 2030. However, there hasbeen a growing surplus of allowances, largely because of the economic crisis. Thissurplus puts the orderly functioning of the carbon market at risk.


In order to counter this risk the EC has taken the initiative to postpone theauctioning of some allowances. EU negotiators now reached an agreement tobring forward to 2019 a reform to help curb a surplus of permits. The EC will nowfocus its efforts on preparing a post-2020 overhaul of the ETS.

3.2.5 F-Gas RegulationTo control emissions from fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases), including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the EU has adopted two legislative acts: the ’MAC Directive’on air conditioning systems used in small motor vehicles, and the ‘F-gasRegulation’ which covers all other key applications in which F-gases are used. As of1 January 2015 a new F-gas regulation is in place. This strengthens the previousmeasures and introduces a number of far-reaching changes by:

➔ Limiting the total amount of the most important F-gases that can be sold inthe EU from 2015 onwards and phasing them down in steps to one-fifth of 2014sales in 2030. This will be the main driver of the move towards more climate-friendly technologies;

➔ Banning the use of F-gases in many new types of equipment where less harmfulalternatives are widely available, such as fridges in homes or supermarkets, airconditioning and foams and aerosols;

➔ Preventing emissions of F-gases from existing equipment by requiring checks,proper servicing and recovery of the gases at the end of the equipment's life.

3.3 Energy efficiency

3.3.1 Energy Efficiency DirectiveThe 2012 Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) establishes a set of measures to help theEU reach its 20% energy efficiency target by 2020. Under the Directive, all EUcountries are required to use energy more efficiently at all stages of the energychain from its production to its final consumption. This means that Europeanhouseholds and industries need to become much more energy efficient. EUcountries were required to transpose the Directive's provisions into their nationallaws by 5 June 2014.

According to the Energy Efficiency Communication of July 2014, the EU is expectedto achieve energy savings of 18–19% by 2020 – missing the 20% target by 1–2%.The fact that the target is non-binding is often blamed for this. President Junckerdescribed in the Political Guidelines for the new EC that he would like tosignificantly enhance energy efficiency beyond the 2020 objective. A review of theEED is foreseen for 2016.

3.3.2 Energy Performance of Buildings DirectiveAnnually, buildings are responsible for 40% of energy consumption and 36% ofCO2 emissions in the EU. Currently, about 35% of the EU's buildings are over 50years old. By improving the energy efficiency of buildings, total EU energyconsumption could be reduced by 5– 6% and CO2 emissions could be lowered byabout 5%. The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) (2010/31/EU)aims for high efficiency requirements for new buildings and deep renovations. Itobliges the Member States that all new buildings in 2020 should be nearly ZeroEnergy Buildings (nZEBs). All new public buildings must be nearly zero-energy by2018. The EPBD acknowledges heat pump applications in line with the RESDirective, and also explicitly mentions their reversible characteristic.

An EC progress report from 2013 found that EU countries had to significantly stepup their efforts to take advantage of the opportunities presented by nearly zero-energy buildings. 24 Member States missed the transposition deadline in 2012and infringement procedures are ongoing. The review of the EPBD, including Smart


Finance for Smart Buildings, which facilitates access to existing fundinginstruments, is foreseen for 2016. Also, the EC announced it would develop a‘Smart Financing for Smart Buildings’-initiative to make existing buildings moreenergy-efficient.

3.3.3 Energy labellingThe energy label is a benchmark for the end-consumer to see how economical,environmentally friendly and/or energy saving the product is. The success of thelabel has been a driver for innovative industry developments, with most of theproducts being in the top classes (A+++, A++, A+) today. Under the currentlegislation a maximum A++ on the product label is applicable from 26 September2015. According to EC, the use of the A+++ label is not allowed at the moment. Theenergy label for heat pumps is based on the system's efficiency determined viaErP Lot 1, 2 and 10.

The current situation makes difficult for consumers to distinguish the bestperforming products. Therefore the EC is reviewing the current energy-labelingscheme and a new proposal was presented in the summer of 2015. On the agendaare a few issues, such as the proposal for a rescaling from A to G and possible opentop classes. The EC proposal will be sent to the European Parliament and theCouncil. When approved by the co-legislators, the EC will implement thesechanges for product groups that have an energy label within a period of five yearsfor most products.

3.3.4 EcodesignThe Ecodesign Directive for Energy-related Products (ErP) aims at reducing theenvironmental impact of products, including the energy consumption throughouttheir entire life cycle. This should benefit both businesses and consumers, byenhancing product quality and environmental protection and by facilitating freemovement of goods across the EU. ErP regulations exist for the following HVACappliances:

➔ space heaters up to 400 kW {gas and oil boilers, electric boilers, heat pumps(electrical and gas), cogeneration of heat and power appliances, integratedpackages (space heater + supplementary space heater + solar thermal device +temperature control)};

➔ water heaters and hot water storage tanks up to 400 kW {gas or oil waterheaters, electric water heaters, heat pump water heaters, solar thermal waterheaters, storage tanks up to 2,000 litres, integrated packages (water heaters +solar thermal device)};

➔ air conditioners and air-to-air heat pumps up to 12 kW.

3.3.5 EcolabelThe overall objective of the Ecolabel scheme is to promote products with reducednegative environmental impacts compared to similar products in the sameproduct group, thus contributing to the efficient use of resources and a high levelof environmental protection. The Ecolabel can be awarded to electrically driven,gas driven or gas absorption heat pumps with the purpose of space heating or theopposite process space cooling, with a maximum heating capacity of 100 kW. Heatpumps exclusively providing hot water for sanitary use, and those only extractingheat from a building are excluded.

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3.4 Renewable energy

3.4.1 Renewable Energy DirectiveThe main instrument to boost the use of renewable energy in the EU is theRenewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC). The Directive sets a 20% binding targetfor overall share of renewables in total EU final energy consumption by 2020. TheDirective officially recognises heat pumps as a technology that uses air, water andground as renewable energy sources. A bi-annual summary on NationalRenewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) is published on the EC’s TransparencyPlatform.[5] The 2015 report from shows that 25 EU countries are expected tomeet their 2013/2014 interim renewable energy targets. In 2014, the projectedshare of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption was 15.3%.

The renewable energy share in the heating and cooling sector was 16.6%.[6] Inmany Member States, a strong development of the renewable heating sector wasa key driver for reaching and exceeding these Member States' interim targets.[7]In the heating and cooling sector, 22 Member States were on track and 6(Denmark, Ireland, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia) did not meet theirplanned 2013 renewable energy deployment level.[8] Heat pumps contributed 7.4Mtoe to renewable heating and cooling in 2013, which is far above the plannedlevels indicated in the NREAPs.

The figure projects 2020 with current and planned policies (on the basis of NREAPand 2013 Member State progress reports) in place, and does not take into accountthe policies implemented after 2013 or the necessary additional efforts byMember States in order for them to comply with the legally binding targets.


Figure 3-2: Expected RESdeployment in MemberStates and 2020 RES targetsSource: EuropeanCommission. RenewableEnergy Progress reportCOM(2015) 293 final, p. 6

Figure 3-3: Final energyconsumption in Europe: by sector with renewableshare in 2014 against 2020target.Source: EuropeanCommission RenewableEnergy Progress reportCOM(2015) 293 final, p. 6.Based on Eurostatcalculation. 2014 data aremodel-based estimates.

3.4.2 RES self-consumption and support schemesNew enabling technologies such as smart grids, smart metering, smart homes,self-generation and storage equipment are empowering citizens to takeownership of the energy transition. Consumers can generate their own electricityfrom renewable energy sources. Self-generated electricity can also be stored forlater use through small-scale energy storage (e.g. heat pumps).

Following a public consultation on electricity market design, the EC will preparelegislative proposals in the second half of 2016. Possible amendments to theinternal market legislation, Renewables Directive, Energy Efficiency Directive andInfrastructure Regulation could be foreseen.[9]

3.5 Supply security

3.5.1 European Energy Security StrategyThe EU imports more than half of all the energy it consumes. Its importdependency is particularly high for crude oil (more than 90%) and natural gas(66%). The total import bill is more than €1 billion per day. Many countries are alsoheavily reliant on a single supplier, often Russia. This dependence leaves themvulnerable to supply disruptions, whether caused by political or commercialdisputes, or infrastructure failure. Every year 40% of the total energy consumed inEurope is used for the generation of heat for either domestic or industrialpurposes.

The EC released its Energy Security Strategy in May 2014. The Strategy aims toensure a stable and abundant supply of energy for European citizens and theeconomy. With regard to this Communication, as well as other EC communicationsa draft report was set up in the European Parliament’s ITRE Committee inDecember 2014. Heat pumps were specifically mentioned in one of the approvedcompromise amendments due to a suggested amendment from EHPA. At theplenary session in June 2015 the report was down voted due to last-minuteamendments on controversial issues such as shale gas.

3.6 Competitiveness & local jobs

3.6.1 Investment On 13 January the EC adopted the legislative proposal to launch a new investmentprogramme to put Europe on the path of economic recovery. This Investment Planintends to mobilise public and private sources of finance (€315 billion) to beinvested in the real economy over the next three years (2015-2017). Investmentsneed to be directed mature projects that would not have been realised withoutadditional money.

On 28 May 2015 EU legislators reached a political agreement on the Regulation fora European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI). Member States unanimouslyendorsed it on 10 March and the European Parliament voted through theRegulation at their plenary session on 24 June, allowing the EFSI to be operationalby early autumn as planned. Multiple Member States have pledged to co-financeprojects receiving funding through EFSI.[10] In 2016 progress will be assessed andfurther options may be considered ahead of the mid-term review of the Multi-annual Financial Framework.

The Capital Markets Union (CMU) is a plan of the EC that aims to create deeper andmore integrated capital markets in the 28 Member States of the EU and is a keytool in the Investment Plan. With the CMU, the EC will explore ways of, amongstothers, improving access to finance for businesses, particularly SMEs.[11] But alsofor long-term infrastructure projects undertaken in areas such as energy.


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3.6.2 Research The EC’s Energy Union strategy dedicates one of its five dimensions to research,innovation and competitiveness. From a heat pump perspective the mostimportant topics relating to research in a European framework are Horizon 2020and the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan).[12] Horizon 2020is the biggest EU Research and Innovation programme ever with nearly €80 billionof funding available over 7 years (2014 to 2020) – in addition to the privateinvestment that this money will attract.[13] The SET-plan aims to accelerate thedevelopment and deployment of low-carbon technologies. It seeks to improve newtechnologies and bring down costs by coordinating research and helping tofinance projects. A communication addressing the role of the SET-Plan will beadopted in September 2015.

3.6.3 TradeOne example of enhanced trade policies that affect the heat pump industry is theGreen Goods Initiative. In July 2014 the EU and 13 other members of the WorldTrade Organization (WTO) launched negotiations to liberalise global trade inenvironmental goods. The initiative aims to remove barriers to trade andinvestment in ’green’ goods, services and technologies.[14] Heat pumps areplanned to be included in the list of covered products.

Also, in 2013 EU governments gave the EC a mandate to negotiate a TransatlanticTrade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Negotiations started in June 2013. Sincethen there have been eight negotiating rounds with the United States. A possibleagreement would have an immediate impact on regulatory trade barriers. Thenegotiations include the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors.

3.6.4 State aidOn April 9, 2014, the EC adopted new Guidelines on State aid in the field ofenvironmental protection and energy for 2014 –2020. A review of the Guidelinesis foreseen in the 2017–2019 period, as part of the Energy Union Roadmap. Stateaid is generally prohibited under European Union (“EU”) competition rules, butmay be allowed under certain conditions where it is in the overall interest of theEU. The Guidelines include aid for energy from renewable sources and aid forenergy efficiency measures.

3.7 Affordability

3.7.1 Energy costs and energy povertyEnergy poverty is a situation where a household is unable to access a socially andmaterially required level of energy services at home. In the EU, the problem ofhaving access to electricity and energy services is no longer an issue but theaffordability of energy services is. This is generally recognised by the term energypoverty. How will the current energy transition in the EU benefit those who arealready marginalised and struggling economically? Over the past five years thenumber of people living in energy poverty has increased.[15] In addressing theissue of energy poverty it is important to understand the causes and consequencesof energy poverty in the EU. It is generally accepted that energy poverty is causedby three factors; the low household income (also relative to the size of theproperty), the high cost of energy and the poor energy efficiency of the house.


3.8 Smart grids

3.8.1 Market DesignAs part of the Energy Union strategy on 15 July the EC presented proposals tolaunch a redesign of the European electricity market. The proposal is an importantstep towards implementing the Energy Union strategy with a forward-lookingclimate change policy. The redesign is needed to adjust for the energy transition;the share of electricity produced by renewables will grow from 25% today to 50%in 2030.[16]

Market design is the set of arrangements that governs how market playersgenerate, trade, supply and consume electricity and use the electricityinfrastructure. It is % that the design allows all players to fully reap the potentialof new technologies. Effective regulatory oversight is needed. The new marketdesign initiative aims to improve the functioning of the internal electricity marketin order to allow electricity to move freely to where and when it is most needed,provide the right signals and incentives to drive the right investments, while fullyintegrating increasing shares of renewable energy.[17]

3.8.2 StorageIncreasing shares of variable energy from renewables pose a challenge to a secureoperation of the grid. It is % that generators and consumers are able to respond tothis flexibility challenge. Integrating storage in the electricity market would furtherincrease the necessary flexibility: electricity should be stored when there is asurplus and prices are low. This stored energy can then be used when generationis limited and prices are high evening out variable power production.[18]

3.8.3 Demand response/smart appliancesSmart appliances or smart homes, together with storage capacity and self-generation can empower citizens to effectively respond to financial incentives inthe energy market. Equipment can buy electricity when prices are low and use itwhen the prices are high.

3.8.4 Smart cities and gridsEfficient transmission and distribution of electricity is fundamental for the wellbeing of citizens and the functioning of our economies. Increased energy demand,an aging electricity network, and the challenge of integrating electricity fromrenewable sources are major challenges. Developing a smart grid, or smart cities,is an excellent way to deal with these challenges. A smart grid is a modernizedelectrical grid that uses information and communications technology to gatherand act on information on the behavior of suppliers and consumers in the market.Empowered consumers with smart appliances or smart homes, flexible prices, andstorage are key elements in a smart grid. Smart grids are so promising inaccommodating the energy transition that Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič said:“smart grids should become Europe's shale gas.”


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3.9 EHPA targets

➔ The EU and the Member States should consider heat pump solutions as part ofthe energy infrastructure and crucial for the Energy Union as they help meetingclimate targets for 2030 and speeding up the energy transition, reducedependency and making the EU more competitive.

➔ The “energy efficiency first” principle should be implemented in the EU’s heatingand cooling strategy for buildings and industrial processes to fully unleash thetechnologies’ potentials and reduce the need for fossil fuel based infrastructureinvestment.

➔ Member States should accurately report on renewable energy produced by heatpumps.

➔ The heating and cooling strategy should promote a revised energy marketdesign with a functioning carbon pricing mechanism for the heating andcooling sector and flexible intraday energy prices. Also sound building- andproduct-related policies are needed, which encourage citizens, business andindustry to make choices in line with the EU’s vision for heating and cooling.

➔ The thermal storage provided by heat pump systems needs to be supported.Load factor based, cost-flexible electricity tariffs are essential to create newbusiness models enabling end-users to become active consumers or evenproducers of energy.

➔ Decisions on research and development funding should be based on theidentified needs of energy users and policy priorities. Research and developmentshould prioritise development and deployment of technological and socialinnovation facilitating a quick energy transition, while measuring first the fullpotential of the currently available technologies.

➔ Successful public and private incentive mechanisms, such as the “Europeanfund for Strategic Investments” need to be developed in line with the objectivesof the Energy Union. Only the best systems should be rewarded to quicklyunleash their full potential.

Sources:

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/news/heating-and-cooling-conference-26-27-februaryEC Renewable Energy Progress report COM(2015) 293 final

[2] http://ec.europa.eu/environment/waste/target_review.htm[3] http://ec.europa.eu/smart-

regulation/impact/planned_ia/docs/2015_env_065_env+_032_circular_economy_en.pdf[4] http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2015022501_en.htm[5] http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy[6] EC Renewable Energy Progress report COM(2015) 293 final[7] EC Renewable Energy Progress report COM(2015) 293 final, p. 6[8] EC Renewable Energy Progress report COM(2015) 293 final, p. 6[9] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-15-5351_en.htm[10] http://ec.europa.eu/priorities/jobs-growth-investment/plan/index_en.htm[11] http://ec.europa.eu/finance/capital-markets-union/index_en.htm[12] http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/what-horizon-2020[13] https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/technology-and-innovation/strategic-energy-technology-plan[14] http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=1116[15] http://bpie.eu/uploads/lib/document/attachment/60/BPIE_Fuel_Poverty_May2014.pdf[16] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-15-5351_en.htm[17] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-15-5351_en.htm[18] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-15-5351_en.htm


Securing a reliable, economic and sustainable energy supply as well asenvironmental and climate protection are part of the European 2020 targetsand most of the EU members’ political agenda today. In essence, thedecarbonisation or mitigation of burning fossil fuels will be the real 21st centurychallenge. Renewable energy and improving energy efficiency are the mostimportant steps to achieve these goals of energy policy.

About 30% of the global energy demand (IEA, 2014) and CO2 emissions can beattributed to industry, especially the big primary materials industries such aschemical and petro-chemical, iron and steel, cement, paper and non-metallic. It isimportant to understand how this energy is used. Moreover, the national andinternational trends and the potential for efficiency gains are crucial.

While impressive efficiency gains have already been achieved in the past twodecades, energy use and CO2 emissions in manufacturing industries could bereduced further if best available technologies were to be applied worldwide.

Heat pumps have been globally recognised as a technology to improve energyefficiency and reduce CO2 emissions. The heat pump markets are currently growingat a steady pace, however, in many countries this growth is primarily subject toresidential heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as systems providingdomestic hot water.

Barriers and opportunitiesEven if the awareness of the benefits grows, and the technology enhancementsand economics continue to improve, heat pumps for industrial applications haveoften been neglected and only few carried out applications can be found. Some ofthese application barriers are listed below:

➔ Lack of knowledgeThe integration of heat pumps into industrial processes requires knowledge ofthe capabilities of industrial heat pumps, as well as knowledge about theprocess itself. Only few installers and decision makers in the industry have thiscombined knowledge, which enables them to integrate a heat pump in themost suitable way.

➔ Low awareness of heat consumption in companiesIn most companies knowledge about heating and cooling demands of theirprocesses is quite rare. This requires expensive and time-consuming measure -ments to find an integration opportunity for industrial heat pumps.

➔ Long payback periodsCompared to oil and gas burners, heat pumps have relatively high investmentcosts. At the same time companies expect very low payback periods of less than2 or 3 years. Some companies would be willing to accept payback periods up to5 years, when it comes to investments into their energy infrastructure. To meet

28 Industry and technology trends

4 Industry and TechnologyTrends

29Industry and technology trends

these expectations heat pumps need to have long running periods and goodefficiencies to become economically feasible.

➔ High temperature applicationMainstream understanding of heat pump technology is that it is limited to anaverage heat sink temperature below 65°C. That is why the technology is oftendisregarded in industrial heating processes.

Industrial heat pumps (IHPs), however, offer various opportunities to all types ofmanufacturing processes and operations:

➔ Energy EfficiencyIncreased energy efficiency is certainly the IHPs most prominent benefit, butfew companies have realised their untapped potential in simplifying productionprocesses and tackling environmental problems at the same time.

➔ Environmental footprintEU members will enforce national emission targets for their industry. This iswhy many of the major industry players put the CO2 footprint as one of the toppriorities of their corporate policy strategies. IHPs are the best way ofsignificantly reducing combustion related emissions. Indeed, in order to reachthe right return of investment, IHPs run a larger amount of hours and they aremore efficient than residential heat pumps.

➔ Fossil fuels price and return of investmentFor industrial heat pump implementation, the operational cost savings are animportant factor for the return of investment calculation. For a roughassessment, the ratio between the amount and cost of electricity and theamount and cost of fossil fuel on the site gives the basic COP (Coefficient ofPerformance) you have to reach for this application to pay off. The fossil fuelcost increase negatively impacts the manufacturing cost and thus increases theinterest for IHP and results in acceptable return of investment requirements.

➔ High temperature and high capacity capabilityFor the past years, heat pump technology has evolved considerably. Withammonia as refrigerant, 90°C hot water is currently a standard and a well-established temperature level. The picture below describes the status of vapourcompression IHPs. Scroll compressors with HFC that can reach up to 150 kW inthe range of 70 –75°C can be considered. Based on HFC or ammonia andfollowing operating conditions, single or twin screw and reciprocating

Figure 4-1: Capacity andtemperature range.Source: Emerson ClimateTechnologies GmbH


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5 technologies can reach up 90°C with different level of performances. There arealso other types of refrigerants like CO2 that can reach 90°C, though applicablefor lower capacities (see figure 4-1).High capacity heat pumps are being deployed in a wide range of branchesincluding chemical and biochemical processes, food & beverage, manufacturingprocesses, ICT (cooling for data centres) and many other industries. Accordingly,it is expected that this market segment will experience significant growth inthe coming years.

➔ Heat source and needsComparing with residential heat pumps, the range of heat sources for industrialapplications is larger than only air, water and geothermal energy. Other sourcesare available such as rejected heat at condenser from a refrigeration system, oilcooling, process waste like exhaust gas and many others. As waste heatproduction and heat demand occur at the same time, this represents a goodmatch (see Figure 4-2).

Due to the technology improvement heat sources up to 70°C are feasible and heat-upgrade the source up to 90°. That yields numerous potential applications,including district heating, scalding, pre-heating, process drying, sanitation andpasteurisation.

The optimal utilisation of heat pump technology is achieved when cooling of theheat source is also part of the process.

Research and developmentAppropriate heat pump technology is important for reducing CO2 emissions andprimary energy consumption as well as increasing the amount of renewableenergy usage in industrial processes. The expansion of industrial applications isalso crucial for enhancing these effects even more. In particular, development anddissemination of high-temperature heat pumps for hot water supply, heating ofcirculating hot water, and generation of hot air and steam is necessary. Specificproblem areas are

➔ lack of refrigerants in the underlying temperature range

➔ lack of experimental and demonstration plants

In terms of R&D, two main trends can be expected:

➔ Improvements in efficiency (and cost) for the existing temperature range up to90°C

➔ Developments of new technologies and new refrigerants that allow highertemperatures for the whole capacity range.

Figure 4-2: Sources andneeds. Source: EmersonClimate Technologies GmbH


Besides natural refrigerants (like ammonia, CO2, Hydrocarbon, etc.), the F-GasDirective drives the development of low GWP refrigerants for refrigeration andheat pump applications. These new refrigerants are supposed to fit the existingtemperature range but mainly allow higher temperatures. Moreover, naturalrefrigerant like hydrocarbons can already allow high temperature heat pumps inthe range of 120 –140°C.

In parallel with this environmental aspect, these new refrigerants must also followrules for health and safety (toxicity, flammability), efficiency and design costs (highvapour density, low pressure) limiting high investments and operation costs.

ConclusionIndustrial heat pumps are using waste process heat as the heat source, deliverheat at higher temperature for use in industrial process heating or preheating, orfor space heating and cooling in industry. They can significantly reduce fossil fuelconsumption and greenhouse gas emissions in drying, washing, evaporation anddistillation processes in a variety of applications as well as heating and cooling ofindustrial and commercial buildings. Industries that can benefit from thistechnology include food and beverage processing, wood products, textiles, andchemicals.

The introduction of heat pumps with operating temperature below 100°C is inmany cases considered to be easy. However, higher temperature application stillrequire additional R&D activities for the development of high temperature heatpumps, integration of heat pumps into industrial processes and development ofhigh temperature, environmentally sound refrigerants.

Sources

[1] Application of Industrial Heat Pumps, IEA Industrial Energy-related Systems and Technologies Annex 13,IEA Heat Pump Programme Annex 35

[2] IEA, 2013 2013 Key World Energy Statistics, IEA International Energy Agency [3] Leonardo, 2007 Leonardo energy: Power Quality & Utilisation Guide: Industrial Heat Pumps, Feb. 2007,

www.leonardo-energy.org[4] Heat pumps in non-domestic applications in Europe: Potential for an energy revolution,

Philippe Nellissen, Emerson Climate Technologies GmbH, Stephan Wolf, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, 8th EHPA Forum, Brussels May 28th 2015


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Industrial heat pumps are everywhere. This large variation of the heat pump familyis usually custom made to cater precisely to the requirements of the respectiveprocess or application. They can lift energy otherwise wasted to useful levels.Industrial heat pumps come in all sizes ranging from a few 100 kW to approx.

35 MW. Used in cascades, they can provide several MWs ofenergy. The biggest heat pumps installed run the districtheating grids of Gothenburg, Stockholm, Oslo and Helsinki, butthe technology is used across Europe.

Assessing the potential of the industrial heat pump segment isa challenge. Although a significant number of case descriptionsis available, they mainly describe techno-economic solution ofthe individual case and cannot be used for an assessment of thewhole market.

Instead, a top down approach was used to identify the amount of energy that canbe provided by heat pumps in industry. Figure 4-3 shows the total heat demand ofEuropean industry. Its total final energy consumption accounted for 3 450 TWh in2012 with about 60% (2 023 TWh) being used for heat generation.

These figures are based on an estimation of the useful heat energy consumptionin the industry segments, assumptions on the available heat sources and on thetemperature levels to be reached, as well as on the equipment capability which istechnically feasible.

The heat demand occurs on different temperature levels. Since applications inneed of temperatures higher than 150°C (i.e. steel and non-metallic segments)can not be provided by heat pumps, they are excluded of the further consideration.In addition, waste heat in these applications occurs at temperatures that areapplicable for direct use.

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Figure 4-3: Estimationof the heat demand in the EuropeanIndustry in (TWh).Source: EUROSTAT, 33 countries

Infobox

Illustration 4-1: Industrial heat pump in Drammen, Norway. Source: Star RenewableEnergy(www.neatpump.com)


Figure 4-4 shows the demand in temperature ranges below 150°C that can beprovided by industrial HPs. Temperatures below 100°C can be provided by state ofthe art heat pumps, above that, prototypes exist and ready-to-market productsare expected in the near future.

However a large amount of the energy demand is in the lower temperature rangeswhich represents a large potential for industrial heat pumps.

This is a first estimation for the potential and we have to make some comments:

➔ A better understanding of the potential can be achieved, if more literature anddata from other EU member states is taken into consideration and bottom-upcalculations for different member states are carried out.

➔ District heating is not included in this study. Including this would significantlyincrease the number of applications, namely in the area of space heating witha temperature range of 60 to 100°C.

The range from 80°C up to 150°C represents a non-negligible part of the potential.The type of applications corresponding to the temperature of 60°C could bewashing applications or drying for small elements, local heating. Applicationscorresponding to temperatures up to 70-90° could be drying, pre-heating, boiling,pasteurisation, or even laundering or colouring.

Chemical, paper, food & tobacco industries represent more than 50% of theestimated potential. They have another temperature range. In the paper industry,the high temperature potential is bigger than in the food and tobacco industriesfor example.

Figure 4-4: PotentialIHP for Heat Generationin TWh. Total potential:174 TWh

34 European heat pump market statistics

The European Heat Pump Market covers twenty one (21) markets in detail:Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Norway,Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

The analysis provides sales data

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