Azerbaijan Strategic Performance Unit September 2009
Transcript of Azerbaijan Strategic Performance Unit September 2009
Azerbaijan Strategic Performance Unit
September 2009
Baku
Azerbaijan country context
Strengths:
• Promising future for the oil and gas sector • Strong adherence to PSAs• State Oil Fund accumulating oil revenues
• Area: 86,600 km2
• Population: 8.7 million (end 2008)
Oil history – famous Azerbaijan oil firsts:
• First oil well in the world was drilled (not dug by hand) in 1848 in Baku in Bibi Heybat oil field
• In 1900 Azerbaijan produced more than 50% of world’s oil = 11.4 million tons
• In 1897-1907 the 1st largest oil pipeline in the world was built from Baku to Batumi = 883 km x 200mm
• About 80% of oil production during World War II in the former USSR was made in Baku (peak production – 23.5 million tons in 1941)
• First offshore oil production in the world started in Azerbaijan (1924 – Bibi Heybat beach, 1947 – Oil Rocks - in the open sea)
Ceyhan
TURKEY
Ankara
Erzurum
Cyprus
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Caspian SeaGEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
Tbilisi
Baku
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
IsraelJordan
Greece
Bulgaria
Romania
Moldova Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
TurkmenistanSangachal
Vale
BP Azerbaijan Interests
0 300 km200100
Caspian Sea
Turkey
Iran
IraqSyria
Russia
Georgia
Baku
Ceyhan
Erzurum
Kazakhstan
Black Sea
Tbilisi
Med.
Sea
Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
ACG Oil Production & Development
Araz-Alov-Sharg Exploration
Shah Deniz Gas Production & Development
Sangachal TerminalSouth
Caucasus Pipeline Gas
WREP Pipeline Oil
BTC Pipeline Oil
Supsa
1998 - 2030 SD gross production
-50
100150200250300350400
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
mb
oed
1998 - 2024 ACG Gross production
Chirag
Azeri
DWG
COP
0
400
800
1,200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
mbd
1998 - 2024 ACG Gross production
Chirag
Azeri
DWG
COP
0
400
800
1,200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
mbd
1998 - 2030 SD gross production
-50
100150200250300350400
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
mb
oed
Stage 1
Stage 2
BP Operated Interests in Azerbaijan
Alov
SOCAR 40%
BP
15%
StatoilHydro
15%
ExxonMobil15%TPAO
10%
EnCana
5%
ACG
BP34.1%
Chevron
10.3%Inpex10.0%
SOCAR10.0%
StatoilHydro8.6%
ExxonMobil8.0%
TPAO6.7%
Devon Energy5.6%
Itochu3.9%
Hess2.7%
Shah Deniz
StatoilHydro
25.5%
BP
25.5%
SOCAR
10.0%
LUKOil
10.0%Total
10.0%
NICO
10.0%
TPAO
9.0%
BTC
30.1%
2.4%
25%
3.4%8.9%
2.5%
6.5%
5%
5%
2.5%
8.7%
BP
Chevron
SOCAR
StatoilHydro
TPAO
Itochu
Hess
Total
Inpex
Eni
ConocoPhillips
SCPC(technical operator)StatoilHydro
25.5%
BP
25.5%
SOCAR
10.0%
LUKOil
10.0%Total
10.0%
NICO
10.0%
TPAO
9.0%
Project Schedule
Appraise Select Define Execute PSA signed / Sanction CVP gate Operation
First Oil
First Oil WA
Ceyhan Lifting
First Oil C&WP Start-up
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
First Oil
ACG PSA
Early Oil Project
Central Azeri & C&WP
West & East Azeri
ACG Phase 3
BTC
Shah Deniz PSA
Shah Deniz St1
Shah Deniz St2
Chirag Oil Project
2009
First Oil EA
2010
First Gas to Turkey
2011 2012
Manpower
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Agency
Expats
NationalsManpower
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Agency
Expats
Nationals
Capex ($bn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ACG
• Potential ultimate recovery > 5bn bbl gross
• Peak production ~1 mmbd gross
• Total capital cost >$20bn gross
• Latest 2009 production forecast 819 mbd
• Project start-up dates:– EOP
Nov 1997
– Central Azeri Feb 2005
– West Azeri Dec 2005
– Gas injection May 2006
– East Azeri Oct 2006
– Phase 3 (DWG) Apr 2008
– COP 3Q’2013
Deepwater Gunashli Phase 3
Chirag
EOP
Chirag
COP
West Azeri
Phase 2
Central Azeri
Phase 1
East Azeri
Phase 2
Sangachal Terminal
BTC, WREP, Rail
1998 - 2024 ACG Gross production
Chirag
Azeri
DWG
COP
0
400
800
1,200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
mbd
1998 - 2024 ACG Gross production
Chirag
Azeri
DWG
COP
0
400
800
1,200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
mbd
1998 - 2024 ACG Gross production
Chirag
Azeri
DWG
COP
0
400
800
1,200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
mbd
Shah Deniz
• Recoverable volumes (total)
~180 bcm of gas
~600 mmbbls of condensate• Stage 1 plateau gas production
8.6 bcma• Total capital cost
>$4bn• Latest 2009 gas production forecast
680 mmscfd• Latest 2009 condensate production forecast 41 mbd • Project start-up dates:
− TPG 500 platform installed
Apr 2006− First gas
Dec 2006− First gas to Georgia
Jan 2007− First gas to Turkey
Jul 2007
Georgia SPA
Azerbaijan SPA
Shah Deniz Stage 1 Gas Sales
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcma
BOTAS
Stage 1
Decline SalesBTC SPA
Georgia SPA
Azerbaijan SPA
BTC and SCP
BAKU
TBILISI
CEYHAN
Sangachal
Erzurum
TURKEY
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
BLACK SEA
CASPIAN SEA
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
BAKU
TBILISI
CEYHAN
Sangachal
Erzurum
TURKEY
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
BLACKSEA
CASPIANSEA
MEDITERRANEANSEA
South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP)Full capacity 20 bcma Length 690 km Diameter 42” Gross Capex $1.1bn First gas Jan 2007
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (BTC)Full capacity (March, 2009) 1.2 mmbdLength 1768 kmDiameter 46/42/34” Gross Capex $3.9bnFirst tanker departed June 2006
3000m
2000m
1000m
Sea Level
1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
BTC Pipeline Route Profile (Distance in km)
AzerbaijanGeorgiaTurkey
Sangachal Terminal 1992Sangachal Terminal 2000Sangachal Terminal 2001Sangachal Terminal 2002Sangachal Terminal 2003Sangachal Terminal 2004
Sangachal Terminal - history
Sangachal Terminal 2005Sangachal Terminal 2007
Sangachal Terminal – present
• One of the largest terminals in the world
• Area 542 hectares
• Processing capacity
• oil 1.2 million bpd
• gas 1.25 bcf/day
• Storage capacity 3 million barrels
• Hosts the largest energy museum in the region – Caspian Energy Centre
ST - a strategic hub for the Caspian
BP Azerbaijan Overview
Baseline: 2004
The FuturePresent: 2009
People: 3000 BP staff +
agency
Infrastructure: • 2 export pipelines• Sangachal EOP
Terminal
Production:
130 mbd
4000 BP staff + agency
• 3 export pipelines and rail• Expanded Sangachal
terminal
• Over 900 mboed
>2000 BP staff
• 3 export pipelines and rail• One of the biggest terminals in the
world
• Oil and condensate peak ~1 mmbd• Gas peak > 2.3 bscf/day
GROWTH Capital Spend 2004: $12m/
day
GROWTH Capital Spend 2004: $12m/
day
GROWTH Capital Spend 2009: $6m/day
GROWTH Capital Spend 2009: $6m/day
Sangachal
Chirag
NREP, WREP
Shah Deniz Stage 1
Sangachal
Chirag
Central Azeri/CWP
BTC, SCP, WREP, Rail
EastAzer
i
West
Azeri
ACG Phase 3
GROWTH Capital Spend Future: $19m/day
GROWTH Capital Spend Future: $19m/day
ChiragCOP
Sangachal
ACG Phase
3
Central Azeri/CWP
EastAzer
i
West
Azeri
SD Stage
1SD
Stage 2
BTC, SCP WREP, Rail
ACG
Central Azeri & C&WPCentral Azeri & C&WP
Sangachal TerminalSangachal TerminalChiragChirag
DWG DUQ and PCWU sail away and installation
DWG, DUQ &PCWUDWG, DUQ &PCWU
Shah Deniz
TPG500 TPG500
Progress on SDX-05Progress on SDX-05 Sangachal Terminal – First GasSangachal Terminal – First Gas
SCPSCP
BTC
RoW ReinstatementRoW Reinstatement
The British Hawthorn tanker with first BTC cargo departing Ceyhan on 04 June 2006The British Hawthorn tanker with first BTC cargo departing Ceyhan on 04 June 2006
The official inauguration of BTCThe official inauguration of BTC
Georgia Pump StationGeorgia Pump Station
BP – a responsible operator
•Security and human rights
•Environmental responsibility
•Professional development of local staff
•Our role in society
•Revenue impact and management
•External stakeholder engagement
Optional slide
Security & human rights
• Working with communities
• Interacting with public security
• Grievance resolution
• External monitoring
Optional slide
Environmental responsibility
During ConstructionAfter
Optional slide
Professional development of local staff
• Caspian Technical Training Centre (CTTC)
• Educational assistance
• Special entrance and development program
• Career planning
83% of BP’s professionals in the Caspian are nationals
Azerbaijan Strategic Performance Unit has been led by national President since September 2009
Optional slide
• Community Investment Programme
• Environmental Investment Programme
• Educational initiatives
• Revenue transparency
• Local content
• Regional Development Initiative
Our role in societyOptional slide
Revenue impact and management
Capacity building
Reporting
Macro-econometric model and capacity building to SOFAZ (2006-2007)
Macroeconomic advisory and institution reform assistance to MoED (2008-2010)
Business environment enabling project with IFC (2009-2010)
EITI reporting continues
Azerbaijan Sustainability Report www.bp.com/caspian/2008sr
Procurement and Supply Chain Management
Communication and outreach
Sustainable Development Initiative • Provision of transparent sources of
finance • Provision of hands on training and
development for local companies (EDTP)
Local content strategyMaximize local content by:
• increasing the number of companies participating in contracts
• raising the value of locally-awarded contracts
• Enterprise Center (2002-2009)• Web portal• Best of Business Award• Link between SME and oil
companies
• In 2008 local, operations-only, single-year spend in Azerbaijan was over $1 billion • Focus on localizing specific sectors through PSCM• Formation of the Local Content Group
Optional slide
External stakeholder engagement
• Governments
• NGOs
• Communities
• Media
• Other interested parties
Optional slide
Azerbaijan Strategic Performance Unit