AXA Investment Managers - WKO.at...Global Framlington -2.76 14.31 - 6.35 3.78 - 3.54 Jan-13 AXA WF...
Transcript of AXA Investment Managers - WKO.at...Global Framlington -2.76 14.31 - 6.35 3.78 - 3.54 Jan-13 AXA WF...
AXA Investment Managers
Herbst 2016
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` Equity markets and the long-term story
` Why allocate to small caps
` Why you need a specialist active manager
` Why choose AXA Investment Managers
` Why invest in small caps now
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Equity markets are increasingly volatile … making asset allocation increasingly difficult
You can find opportunity in volatility, if you know where to look
Challenges shouldn’t obscure the longer-term investment case for equities, particularly smaller companies
growth for longer Slower
markets Volatile
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Investors often overlook smaller companies
of current small cap investors plan to allocate more to small caps in 2016
35% Potential to boost
Source: 2016 Citywire Survey
Portfolio
Diversification
parts of economy fastest-growing Exposure to
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performance
... and 28% of investors not currently invested in small cap, plan to do so in 2016.
Historically, small caps have tended to outperform large caps
Small caps tend to provide stronger returns when large cap returns are modest
This chart shows US data. *Based on the period 1926-1929 **Based on the period 2010 – February 2015 Notes: Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy (February 2015), Ibbotson, Bloomberg, DataStream, Global Financial Data The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
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Average annual return
1920’s* 1930’s 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s**
Large Cap +19.2% -0.1% +9.2% +19.4% +7.8% +5.9% +17.6% +18.2% -0.9% +15.5%
Small Cap -4.5% +1.4% +20.7% +16.9% +15.5% +11.5% +15.8% +15.1% +6.3% +17.5%
Difference -23.7% +1.5% +11.5% -2.5% +7.7% +5.6% -1.8% -3.1% +7.2% +2%
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Global indices: rolling 3-year largest drawdown, peak to trough
Time is your friend… over the longer-term small caps have been no more volatile than large caps
Source: Rosenberg Equities, S&P, MSCI, DataStream. Total return drawdown, 3-year rolling. As at 31.12.15 The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
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S&P World S&P Small MSCI EM
Why allocate to small caps
Why investors should structurally allocate to small caps
15% of the global equity investment universe
Small companies often lead innovation
Offer earnings growth
premium over the
long-term
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1 2 3
Source 1: JP Morgan, December 2015
Majority of fund buyers only allocate 6 - 10% to small caps*, structurally underweight to 15% of the equity universe
*Source: Citywire Survey 2016 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Factset and JP Morgan; December 2015
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Miss out on potential returns from 90% of companies globally:
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Global equities by region, by number of stocks
Large caps
Small/mid caps 200 1877
Japan 806 3358
US/Canada
36 434
Australia/NZ
456 2219
W. Europe
56 436
Lat Am
308 5007
Asia ex-Japan
Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa
115 1474
Small caps usually have a natural bias towards the fastest growing part of the company life cycle
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Companies cluster where innovation is
possible
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Company evolution:
Small companies often lead innovation We believe that we are in a phase of immense innovation
Source McKinsey Research - December 2014. Shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as advice or a recommendation.
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2 In
nova
tion
Innovation Water power Mechanization
Textiles Commerce
Steam Power Railroad
Steel Cotton
Electricity Chemicals Internal
combustion engine
Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Space
Digital Networks Biotechnology
Software Information technology
Sustainability Radical resource
Productivity Whole system
design Biomimicry
Green Chemistry Industrial ecology
Renewable energy Green
nanotechnology
1st wave
2nd wave
3rd wave
4th wave
5th wave
6th wave Waves of Innovation
1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
Small caps have offered an earnings growth premium over the long-term
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Long-term global aggregate operating income growth
Source: JP Morgan, June 2015. The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance
2.4% Small and mid caps have posted average earnings
growth 2.4% higher than large caps since
1990
23/27 Small caps have
outperformed large caps over 23 of the last 27
years
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Earnings premium: Earnings persistency:
Forecasted long-term growth in small caps is larger
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P/E: Price/Earnings ratio. EPS: Earnings per share. PEG: Price/Earnings to Growth Source: FactSet at 29/02/2016, assuming small cap is universe of stocks with market cap $0.25bn to $5bn. The base universe is taken from Datastream Europe Index for Europe and Russell 2000 Index for US. Note that MSCI World index captures large and mid cap stocks, whereas MSCI World Small Cap is dedicated to small caps. The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
Fundamental Factor MSCI World Index MSCI World Small Cap
Fwd P/E 14.45x 15.10x
Est 3-5 Yr EPS Growth 8.9 10.0
Long Term PEG 1.62 1.51
Small cap valuations provide cheaper access to growth
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Why you need a specialist active manager
Why investors should choose a specialist active manager
Experience shows that small caps are inherently more inefficiently priced, and require specialist knowledge
Active managers can select the most compelling businesses in a stock-specific universe
Active managers can benefit from small cap M&A premium
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2
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Shrinking sell-side coverage of small caps Typically under-researched and under-owned
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Small caps are inherently more inefficiently priced
Average Number of Analysts by Capitalization*: December 2014
Source: Rosenberg Equities as of October 2014. Large Cap >$10 bil market cap. , Mid Cap between $10 bil .- $2 bil., Small Cap <$2 bn. *According to IBES (Institutional Brokers' Estimate System)
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Small caps often define their own growth trajectories Active managers can identify opportunities in stock-specific universe
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Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis (Based on S&P and BMI Indices Top 100-Large Caps & Bottom 100=Small Caps) as of June 2014.
of small caps’ share price move is related to
idiosyncratic factors
2
60%
… versus small caps Large caps
80% of large caps’ share
price move is correlated with macro factors
80%
40%
20%
60%
Large caps Small capsMacro factors Stock-specific factors
Smaller companies are more likely to benefit from M&A
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Larger companies seeking to acquire growth or a niche capability
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Entrepreneurs selling out when businesses grow beyond a certain point
Lower interest rates are making funding more accessible
2015 was the strongest year for M&A volumes on record; third consecutive year of increases
Source: Bloomberg, February 2016
Why choose AXA Investment Managers
Why investors choose AXA Investment Managers
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Our exceptional research capability unlocks more investment opportunities
Our Small cap DNA fosters long-term performance
Our Small cap strategies have generally outperformed across the 3 and 5-year horizons
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* Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance
*
Our research capability unlocks more investment opportunities
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12,000 global small caps
1,000 direct contacts with management teams
Source: AXA IM; February 2016
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AXA IM currently manages €27bn of small cap assets (€4bn of which in dedicated small cap products), placing long-term drivers of risk at the heart of our investment process
40+ years of knowledge and experience to remain resilient through all market cycles over time
Our small cap DNA fosters long-term performance Long-term view of investing in the early stages of growth
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Source: AXA IM, February 2016; 40 years refer to Framlington’s small cap investing experience
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Our range of small cap strategies has generally outperformed across the 3 and 5-year horizons
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Source: AXA IM as at 29/02/2016. Basis: NAV, gross income reinvested, gross of fees in EUR (except for AXA Framlington Japan which is net income reinvested). AXA WF Funds are Luxembourg SICAVs. The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
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Note that these Funds may involve risks relating to geopolitics, liquidity, credit, derivatives, counterparties, leverage, currency, emerging markets, portfolio concentration, operational risks, risks linked to method and model, and others. Further explanation of the risks associated with investment can be found in the prospectus of each individual Fund
Absolute return % pa
Relative Return % pa
1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 3Y 5Y SI Inception Date Fund Name
Global Rosenberg -5.88 15.03 13.73 2.16 2.61 3.23 2.15 Oct-99 AXA Rosenberg Global Small Cap Equity Alpha
Global Framlington -2.76 14.31 - 6.35 3.78 - 3.54 Jan-13 AXA WF Framlington Global Small Cap
US Rosenberg -8.94 15.98 14.60 3.28 3.53 3.27 3.91 Jul-87 AXA Rosenberg US Small Cap Equity Alpha Fund
UK Framlington 3.88 22.07 19.38 9.33 7.00 6.16 7.47 Apr-01 AXA Framlington UK Smaller Companies
Europe Rosenberg -4.71 14.62 12.38 -1.23 -0.03 1.06 0.63 Oct-96 AXA Rosenberg Pan European Small Cap Equity Alpha Fund
Europe Framlington 8.85 18.11 14.05 16.58 8.13 6.41 1.92 Mar-01 AXA WF Framlington Europe Small Cap
Europe Microcap Framlington 2.64 19.84 10.68 4.09 6.74 0.72 -1.22 Mar-05 AXA WF Framlington Europe MicroCap
Japan Rosenberg -0.03 11.91 9.27 -2.07 -1.33 -0.46 0.32 Sep-96 AXA Rosenberg Japan Small Cap Equity Alpha Fund
Japan Framlington 7.95 21.70 12.48 14.21 10.89 6.94 3.78 Feb-84 AXA Framlington Japan
Asia Rosenberg -10.12 2.86 7.68 -1.54 2.16 5.12 3.79 Oct-06 AXA Rosenberg Pacific ex Japan Small Cap Equity Alpha Fund
Small caps present a significant opportunity for alpha
Source: AXA IM as at 31.12.15; AXA WF Framlington European Small Cap F EUR; AXA Rosenberg Global Small Cap Alpha Fund. The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance. Cumulative performance calculations are gross of fees, based on the reinvestment of dividends. An investor’s return will be reduced by the management fees and other expenses
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100% MSCI Index
100% Rosenberg Global Small Cap
100% MSCI World Small Cap Index
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
13% 15% 17% 19%
An
nu
alis
ed lo
ng
ter
m r
etu
rn
Volatility
100% MSCI Europe Index
100% Framlington European Small Cap
100% EuroStoxx
Small Index
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
18% 19%
An
nu
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ed lo
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m r
etu
rn
Volatility
Small caps tend to offer a significant increase in alpha with a moderate impact on risk, while also lowering beta relative to large-cap equities
Efficient frontier examples
Why small caps?
Source: 2016 Citywire Survey
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point into asset class Attractive entry
Innovation & growth areas in economy
appreciation Potential long-term capital
in equity portfolio Diversification
AXA World Funds - Framlington Europe Small Cap Additional Risks
Credit Risk: risk that issuers of debt securities held in the Sub-Fund may default on their obligations or have their credit rating downgraded, resulting in a decrease in the Net Asset Value.
Liquidity Risk: risk of low liquidity level in certain market conditions that might lead the Sub-Fund to face difficulties valuing, purchasing or selling all/part of its assets and resulting in potential impact on its net asset value.
Counterparty Risk: risk of bankruptcy, insolvency, or payment or delivery failure of any of the Sub-Fund's counterparties, leading to a payment or delivery default.
Impact of any techniques such as derivatives: certain management strategies involve specific risks, such as liquidity risk, credit risk, counterparty risk, legal risk, valuation risk, operational risk and risks related to the underlying assets.
The use of such strategies may also involve leverage, which may increase the effect of market movements on the Sub-Fund and may result in significant risk of losses.
Additional risks mentioned in Fund-specific slides
AXA Rosenberg Global Small Cap Alpha Fund Additional Risks
Derivatives: derivatives can be more volatile than the underlying asset and may result in greater fluctuations to the Sub-Fund's value. In the case of derivatives not traded on an exchange they may be subject to additional counterparty and liquidity risk.
Geopolitical Risk: investments issued or traded on markets in different countries may involve the application of different standards and rules (including local tax policies and restrictions on investments and movement of currency), which may be subject to change. The Sub-Fund's value may therefore be impacted by those standards/rules (and any changes to them) as well as the political and economic circumstances of the country/region in which the SubFund is invested.
Liquidity Risk: some investments may trade infrequently and in small volumes. As a result the fund manager may not be able to sell at a preferred time or volume or at a price close to the last quoted valuation. The fund manager may be forced to sell a number of such investments as a result of a large redemption of units in the SubFund. Depending on market conditions, this could lead to a significant drop in the Sub-Fund's value and in extreme circumstances lead the Sub-Fund to be unable to meet its redemptions.
Operational Risk: the Sub-Fund is subject to the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people or systems or those of third parties such as those responsible for the custody of the Sub-Fund's assets.
Risk linked to Method and Model: attention is drawn to the fact that the Sub-Fund's strategy is based on the utilisation of a proprietary share selection model. The effectiveness of the model is not guaranteed and the utilisation of the model may not result in the investment objective being met.
Stock Lending: the Sub-Fund may enter into securities lending agreements and as a result be subject to increased counterparty risk. Should the counterparty fail financially, the securities received will be called upon. However in the event of significant market volatility at the time of default the value of those securities received could fall below the value of the lent securities. In this instance the manager would not have sufficient cash to purchase the equivalent value of securities lent out which could result in a significant negative impact on the Sub-Fund's value.
Further explanation of the risks associated with an investment in this Sub-Fund can be found in the prospectus.
Characteristics disclosure:
The price/earnings data forecast is based on IBES 1-year forward earnings estimates. Dividend yield is not guaranteed and will change in the future. Please note that in this report, the specified benchmark excludes certain benchmark constituent securities that Rosenberg Equities deems not to have sufficient publicly available accounting data for valuation purposes. As such, please note that the “benchmark” portfolio characteristics shown in this report are calculated in good faith by Rosenberg Equities based on the adjusted benchmark, and therefore, deviate from the portfolio characteristics of the full, unadjusted official benchmark. Premium and discounts are calculated by the ratio of fund compared to equity benchmark, for example if benchmark has an forward earnings yield of 8% and the fund 9.5% the premium is 19% or (9.5% - 8%) / 8% = 19%. The descriptions set forth above represent investment objectives and possible characteristics only. Dividend yield and Beta exhibits are based on data from representative accounts. The representative account was chosen on the basis of adequate assets under management and an investment setup that is typical enough to effectuate a fair comparison. No representation is made that Rosenberg Equities will achieve the objectives and characteristics set forth above. An investor’s experience may vary. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Benchmark” refers to the external index provider benchmark specified above or elsewhere in this presentation. For the purposes of this slide, the specified benchmark excludes certain benchmark constituent securities that Rosenberg equities deems not to have sufficient publicly available accounting data for valuation purposes. As such, please note that the above “benchmark” portfolio characteristics are calculated in good faith by Rosenberg Equities based on the adjusted benchmark and therefore, deviate from the portfolio characteristics of the full, unadjusted benchmark.
Any MSCI information herein may only be used for your internal use, it may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.mscibarra.com).
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