AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis)...
Transcript of AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis)...
![Page 1: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
AVs and Transit
Stephen Buckley, P.E., AICPNACV SummitJune 12, 2018
![Page 2: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Electric Shared
AutomatedConnected
New Mobility
Source: WSP, 2017.
![Page 3: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Source: Google, 2014.
![Page 4: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Promise of AVs
‒ Improved road safety‒ More equitable access for all ‒ Economic benefits of less
lost productivity‒ Increased travel options‒ Reduced stress of driving‒ Reduced fuel consumption
and emissions‒ Reduced collisions, reducing
incident-related congestion‒ In the future, potentially
greater capacity, reducing recurring congestion
4
![Page 5: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Key Factors
Speed of Technological Advancement
Economics Public Acceptance
Political Support Market for a Shared Model
![Page 6: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Private Ownership Model
Driven by Auto Industry
Incremental Moves in Functionalities
Mostly Privately Owned
Here Today
Initially Driven by Tech and Ride-Hailing Companies
Jump to Fully Automated
Transportation-as-a-Service
A few (or many, many) years away
Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis)
Two Paths
![Page 7: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Electric Shared
AutomatedConnected
New Mobility
Source: WSP, 2017.
![Page 8: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Electric Shared
AutomatedConnected
New Mobility
Source: WSP, 2017.
![Page 9: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Recent Trends in Transit Ridership
![Page 10: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Ridership Trends
![Page 11: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Ridership Trends
https://ggwash.org/view/67101/public-transit-ridership-is-down-in-the-washington-region-and-in-other-us-cities 4/4/2018
![Page 12: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Impacts of Ride-hailing on Transit
![Page 13: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Annual TNC Trips
![Page 14: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Ride-hailing and Transit
‒Conventional wisdom is that Ride-hailing services are cannibalizing transit ridership
‒With automation, prices will likely decrease, making (automated) ride-hailing even more attractive
![Page 15: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Fare Choices
‒ In line with the narrative: ‒ most users are under the age of 35, ‒ most use the service on a weekly basis, ‒ most don’t own a car.
‒Less predictably: ‒ a substantial number of trips are by people from
households earning less than $38,000 per year ‒ NOT linking to transit‒ high off-peak usage
![Page 16: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Fare Choices: Complement or Competition?
42%
23%
18%
5%
12%
![Page 17: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Fare Choices: Private to Shared?
23%
18%
41% of trips were previous in vehicles
![Page 18: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Fare Choices: New Vehicle Trips?
42%
5%
12%
59% of trips were previous not in vehicles
![Page 19: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Fare Choices: Shift from Transit Trips?
42%
42% of trips were previous on transit
![Page 20: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Fare Choices
‒Key Findings:
‒59% of all ride-hailing trips are adding additional cars to the road system
‒42% of passengers would have used public transit for their trip
![Page 21: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
TCRP 195
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24996/broadening-understanding-of-the-interplay-between-public-transit-shared-mobility-and-personal-automobiles
![Page 22: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
TRR 195: Key Findings
1. The heaviest TNC use across the regions in this study is during evening hours and weekends.
2. Most TNC trips in the study regions are short and concentrated in downtown core neighborhoods. Across the five regions represented in the TNC trip data, the mean TNC trip was between 2 and 4 miles.
3. There is no clear relationship between the level of peak‐hour TNC use and longer‐ term changes in the study regions’ public transit usage.
4. Among survey respondents, people who use transit or commute by driving solo do so as part of a routine; TNCs are used on a more occasional basis.
5. Transit travel and wait times were top concerns of survey respondents who replaced transit trips with TNC trips.
6. TNC usage takes place in communities of all income levels.
7. TNC use is associated with decreases in respondents’ vehicle ownership and single‐occupancy vehicle trips.
![Page 23: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
APTA
Source: http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/APTA-Understanding-Recent-Ridership-Changes.pdf
![Page 24: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Should Transit Be Concerned?
![Page 25: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Cost Per Mile
Source: http://uberestimate.com/prices/Philadelphia/ (April 14, 2018); ARK Investment Management (2015);Morgan Stanley (2016); World Economic Forum/Boston Consulting Group (2016)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Shared AVs (2030)
![Page 26: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Average Length of Transit Trips
Source: APTA 2011 Fact Book
v
![Page 27: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Cost Per Mile
Source: http://uberestimate.com/prices/Philadelphia/ (April 14, 2018); ARK Investment Management (2015);Morgan Stanley (2016); World Economic Forum/Boston Consulting Group (2016)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Shared AVs (2030)
![Page 28: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Launched in February
With new Express Pool option, Uber customers
walk a block or two to catch a ride
- Chicago Sun Times, February 26, 2018
![Page 29: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
How Close are AVs?
![Page 30: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Waymo Miles Driven
Source: Waymo, November 27, 2017.
![Page 31: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Things are Heating Up…..
GM WILL LAUNCH ROBOCARS WITHOUT STEERING WHEELS NEXT YEAR
Lex Davies, Wired, January 18, 2018
https://www.wired.com/story/gm-cruise-self-driving-car-launch-2019/
WAYMO LAUNCHES ITS SELF-DRIVING ARMADA
ARIAN MARSHALL, Wired.com, Jan. 30, 2018
https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-launches-self-driving-minivans-fiat-chrysler/
Tesla will start rolling out its ‘full self-driving’ package in August, Elon Musk says
Andrew J. Hawkins, The Verge, June 11, 2018, 1:58pm
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/11/17449076/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-elon-musk
![Page 32: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Market Value of Shared Mobility in 2030
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
TRIL
LIO
NS
($U
S)
![Page 33: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Things are Heating Up…..
Uber orders up to 24,000 Volvo XC90s for driverless fleet
Darrell Etherington,TechCrunch November 21, 2017
Waymo to buy 'thousands' of minivans for self-driving vehicle service
Detroit Free Press, Jan. 30, 2018
Waymo Orders Up to 20,000 Jaguar SUVs for Driverless Fleet – WSJ
Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2018
![Page 34: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Launched in March
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqRMTWqhwzM
![Page 35: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Launched in October
![Page 36: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Launched in March
“An EasyMile autonomous shuttle bus became the first vehicle to
operate on California’s roads without a driver behind the wheel….”
- AUVSI, March 7, 2018
![Page 37: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
What Might this Mean for Transit?
![Page 38: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
What Might this Mean for Transit?
‒Challenges‒ Continued pressures on ridership and farebox
‒ Redefining your mission
‒ Workforce transition and (re)development
‒Opportunities‒ Potential reduction in labor costs
‒ Opportunities for use of micro-transit
‒ Opportunities to partner with private producers
![Page 39: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Operational Realities
![Page 40: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Operational Realities
![Page 41: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
How Might Fleets Deploy?
![Page 42: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
How Might Fleets Deploy?
![Page 43: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Wildcards
Catastrophic Event
Public Backlash Regarding
Data and Privacy
![Page 44: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
The Public-Private Disconnect
![Page 45: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
The Models
Ownership
Dispatch and Control
Operational Restrictions
Pricing
Public Fleet
Private Fleet
Private Individual
Centralized Public
Centralized Private
Coordinated Private
Individual Private
Heavily Restricted
Concessioned Routes
Concessioned Areas Unrestricted
Market
High Public Sector Involvement
Low Public Sector Involvement
Regulated (Subsidized?)
![Page 46: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
The Disconnect
Ownership
Dispatch and Control
Operational Restrictions
Pricing
Public Fleet
Private Fleet
Private Individual
Centralized Public
Centralized Private
Coordinated Private
Individual Private
Heavily Restricted
Concessioned Routes
Concessioned Areas Unrestricted
Market
High Public Sector Involvement
Low Public Sector Involvement
Regulated (Subsidized?)
![Page 47: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
How Might this Play Out?
Willing Partner Death FightUnwillingly Regulated
![Page 48: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Why Transit Agencies Need to Act Now…..
‒We are see slides in ridership, particularly with surface transit
‒Even minor losses in farebox revenue may begin a downward spiral
‒When AVs arrive, ride-hailing prices may drop considerably (30-40%), further challenging the cost competitiveness of transit
‒Need to proactively address issues with mission, governance and labor
![Page 49: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Resources
![Page 50: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Resources
![Page 51: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Resources
![Page 52: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Resources
![Page 53: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Resources
![Page 54: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Resources
![Page 55: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Resources
![Page 56: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Resources
![Page 57: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Actions You MUST be Taking….
‒Educate your team and political leadership on what is happening
‒Begin to revisit your vision, mission, principles and goals
‒Begin to discuss models, and how they support your goals
‒Create a road map, and revisit it every year
‒Understand potential impacts to your revenue
‒Begin to think about the details
‒Pilot and test to build capacity
SHARE, SHARE, SHARE!
![Page 58: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Key Takeaways…..
‒This is coming fast – you can guide it or respond to it
‒Government has a chance to shape this, but needs to move
‒While ride-hailing companies have been saying the right things, they are profit-driven and will follow the market
![Page 59: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
![Page 60: AVs and Transit - University of Connecticut€¦ · Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis) Two Paths. Electric Shared Connected Automated New Mobility Source: WSP, 2017. Electric](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4bc86dc73ffb638524791d/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
AVs and Transit
Stephen Buckley, P.E., AICPNACV SummitJune 12, 2018