Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance

Category 1b: Excel, without a consultant

Oregon was the first state to witness the Aug. 21, 2017 total eclipse that crossed 14 states. This scheduled event gave us time to plan. But with no recent precedents in the U.S., we had to analyze what we needed to plan for.

A pervasive cultural interpretation of an eclipse is a dragon devouring the sun. The sun is a life-giver, a constant; something that blots out the sun must be bad.

Today our scientific and cultural understanding of eclipses has changed. Eclipses are wonders, not worries. But government agencies charged with protecting the public still have lots to fear when large crowds try to travel all at once before and after the event!

OregonDOT recognized the potential crises that could occur when hundreds of thousands of people flock to hundreds of events spread across the 350-mile long, 60-mile wide path of the moon’s shadow. We teamed with other state agencies tasked with protecting lives, the state tourism agency and the Governor’s office to ensure we communicated consistent messages to eclipse viewers about public safety, disaster preparedness, disaster response and tourism: Prepare them, not scare them.

We based our strategic plans on a great deal of data analysis.

Using secondary quantitative historical meteorological information on August cloudiness, OregonDOT determined eclipse viewers would likely gather in four areas: the mid-Oregon coast; near Salem, in the Willamette Valley; in Madras, in central Oregon; and in a widespread area of eastern Oregon.

Using secondary quantitative information on historical rural state highway traffic volumes, we calculated that if eclipse viewers treated this event as just a quick “in/out” then each area

could experience 70-mile backups in each direction.

Partner state agencies used secondary quantitative research from destination marketing groups and event organizers on the number of campsites, hotel rooms and permitted events to identify 630 local fairs, festivals and activities.

From these analyses, we developed a risk assessment defining our worst-case scenario:

Up to one million visitors, arriving just before and leaving just after the eclipse.

Insights and analysis

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 2

OregonDOT and three other state agencies led the collaboration with 60 state and local agencies for more than nine months before the eclipse (with Oregon Emergency Management, Travel Oregon and Oregon Parks).

Goal: Visitors and residents will be prepared to have a safe and enjoyable experience viewing the eclipse in Oregon, and will want to visit Oregon again in the future.

Audiences: People who would travel through the path of totality (or on the main highways leading there) in the days immediately surrounding Aug. 21; health

care providers; food vendors; gas station operators; Oregon residents and businesses in the path of totality; truckers; local, national and international media.

Objectives quantifiably measured OregonDOT audiences’ behaviors, not our outputs. (For this discussion of OregonDOT’s work, we’ve omitted other agency campaign objectives not under our purview.)

1. (If people heed our message, they’ll drive cautiously and patiently.) Zero people die in eclipse traffic crashes.

2. (If people heed our message, they won’t leave right after the eclipse.) Traffic backups post-eclipse will not exceed three times normal congestion for more than eight consecutive hours. (This ties to our agency operational goals; see further explanation in evaluation)

OregonDOT Budget

Budgeted Actual Ratio Purpose

Materials $100 $25 25% Poster background donated by artist (estimated value)

Social $280 $280 100% Facebook ads, $20/day cap, 14 days; cost per link click=18¢

Staff $49,830 $40,227 81% $33/hour flat rate; 1,510 hours estimated; 1,220 hours actual

Total $50,210 $40,532 81% Budget on target (under budgeted amount)

Strategy: We formed a joint information system with more than 60 state, county, municipal, federal, tribal and nonprofit partners. Collaboration among state agencies and the Governor’s office was the most extensive and positive experience any of us can remember. Tourism officials realized that just inviting everyone to come here for the eclipse could have unintended consequences due to crowd size. Life safety agencies found positive ways to talk about proper preparation. We created five calls to action and supporting talking points (see matrix).

Many of the other states in the path of totality adopted OregonDOT’s message

“Arrive early, stay put, leave late.”

Planning

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 3

Outreach using press releases, magazines and social media began a year before the eclipse, ramping up at six months and again at three months. We scheduled prewritten social media posts from agencies, shared by the rest.

We strategically paired prevention messaging. For example, with the anticipated traffic jams and potentially high temperatures, heat related illness was a concern. OregonDOT teamed with the Oregon Health Authority to explain how to prepare for heat issues while sitting in traffic. We warned businesses in the path of totality that their employees should have alternate plans for getting to work on the day of the eclipse.

Our social media outreach focused on positive “Be prepared” messages, rather than the more negative messaging usually associated with life-safety agencies—even playing off celestial puns such as “Luna(r)tic”…

…and writing poetry! Note that our transportation message is embedded, as well as a tourism message.

We added a message more than two months out as we received feedback. “It’s not a game day: The eclipse is a three-day event, not a three hour event” helped people recognize they couldn’t just “pop in and out” and still have a good time.

A detailed press release/message matrix plan is shown on the last page of this document.

Execution

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 4

One month before, OregonDOT and two dozen state agencies coordinated a social media campaign ending right before the eclipse with a Twitter chat. And we created 8 hours of training on managing Joint Information Centers for county and city emergency managers and communicators, simulating the days around the eclipse in four areas of the state. They experienced many of the simulated events for real a month later!

Five days before the eclipse—when the first trickle of visitors arrived—OregonDOT led the opening of a statewide multi-agency coordination center to direct a dozen local joint information centers around the state. Each local JIC was responsible for monitoring and messaging in its area; the coordination center synchronized messages, provided statewide perspective and helped quash rumors.

During the days around the eclipse, we strategically stationed our communicators around Oregon.

Lincoln Co

area Salem area

Central Oregon area

John Day area

Central HQ Social media

North of path

South of path

Local JICs Angela Lou Peter Tom S Tom F EOC/

livestream

Dave T MAC/JIC

Greg/John (photo/video)

Sarah

Kevin

Sally

Don

Kimberly

Jared

Gary State JIC Agency EOC

Shelley Lauren

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 5

There were no traffic fatalities and no major crashes.

Travel times, while long, were not triple normal levels for more than eight hours: Many people heeded our message to not travel immediately after the eclipse. We gathered real-time traffic volumes and used historical traffic volume to compute a ratio of actual travel time to the average travel time for similar August weekdays in the past four years.

This background on the creation of this two-dimensional objective will help explain the eight graphs on the next page.

Our goal is that visitors and residents will be prepared to have a safe and enjoyable experience viewing the eclipse in Oregon, and will want to visit Oregon again in the future.

Our transportation messages/calls to action are “Arrive early; stay put; leave late” and “It’s not a game day: The eclipse is a three-day event, not a three hour event.”

If travelers heed our messages, they won’t leave immediately after the eclipse. But we realize that some people must leave right away due to their own schedules.

If most people don’t leave right after the eclipse, they shouldn’t experience a large rise in expected travel times along major routes out of the path of totality. But since some have to leave right away, they will experience some level of increased travel time.

We define a measure that links eclipse travelers’ travel time through defined highway segments to the “usual” travel time under normal (non-eclipse) traffic conditions. This ratio is similar to Texas Transportation Institute’s “travel time index” that compares actual commute time to the theoretical travel time if traffic flowed at the speed limit.

Our ratio computes how much worse the actual travel time was during and after the eclipse, compared to the average travel time of a similar weekday in the same month over the last 4 years under normal traffic conditions. We compute this for each hour.

There are many ways to define “large rise” and “expected travel time,” all equally valid. We picked definitions we felt were reasonable:

o Large rise is 3× expected, lasting for more than 8 hours. We could have chosen 2x or 2.5x or 4 hours or 6 hours. We chose the larger numbers because most of the highways we analyzed are two-lane roads with no divided median: They’re more likely to close in both directions when there’s a crash in one direction. So one crash can skew numbers for quite some time, if a low threshold is chosen.

o Expected travel time is the hourly average travel times of a similar weekday in the same month, over the last 4 years. We chose similar weekdays in the same month to try to hold constant other possible variables: traffic volumes change by day of week and month of year.

Anything above 3× for 8 or more hours demonstrates too many travelers did not heed our messages—our communications campaign failed to influence those travelers.

Calculations using several thousand data points result in the following “travel time ratio” graphs.

Evaluation (quantitative, assessing objectives)

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 6

The traffic ratio graph for U.S. 97 Northbound from Madras to I-84 on Monday 8/21 spikes at 9:00 p.m. due to a property-damage-only crash, which blocked the highway for an hour.

U.S. 97 southbound from Madras to Redmond—a two-lane highway—experienced the most congestion: Almost 7 hours of travel times more than three times the average.

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 7

This travel time analysis is corroborated by Oregon’s speed maps along Interstate 5 on the day of the eclipse (looking specifically at traffic both north and south of Salem). Green indicates traffic is flowing freely; yellow and amber indicate slowing and then more slowing; red indicates stop-and-go (and stopped). Traffic was indeed heavy: At times the red line stretched about 30 miles! But the red lines did not last longer than 8 hours.

The view from OregonDOT

headquarters Salem, OR 10:19 a.m.

Aug. 21, 2017

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 8

Newspaper editorials don’t usually compliment state government. The Oregonian did! Its editorial read in part, “This was an effective informational campaign…”

Other newspapers made similar comments…

Social media and website

OregonDOT’s Facebook platform saw huge engagement! Our agency’s eclipse webpage was the most popular in all of Oregon state government; in August, it saw 1.15 million views.

Other results

More than 1,300 passengers rode the Amtrak Cascades train on the day of the eclipse, the largest since we started keeping track 5 years ago. Normally, we have 250-350 passengers weekdays.

Remembering our goal

Our final press release thanked visitors and invited them to return.

We’re pretty sure they will.

Evaluation (qualitative: Newspaper editorials)

OregonDOT eclipse press release message matrix

OregonDOT: Avoiding cosmic jams on the way to and from the celestial dance 9

Category 1b: Excel, without a consultant

Date Date

Title Audiences Key messages

(priority order) Message bullets

(alphabetical order) Channel Meas

6/2

Here it comes! #Eclipse2017 means we all have to be ready

Oregon residents

What you do to plan ahead will make or break your eclipse-viewing experience

1. Be prepared 2. Do what you can to help 3. Expect delays 4. Expect traffic changes 5. Look out for each other 6. Stock up early

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/19f1de3

GD

6/5 ODOT plans U.S. 97 support for eclipse

Central Oregon/ Bend residents

1. It’s our intent to keep highways open 2. We’ll have resources spread across

the system to handle any trouble

1. Be prepared for adverse driving conditions 2. Expect delays 3. Expect the unexpected 4. Give yourself plenty of time to get to your

destination

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/19fb342

GD

6/9

ODOT Eclipse update June 9, 2017 (“cosmic traffic jam”)

Oregon residents

1. All construction in the path of totality will be stopped Aug. 18-22

2. We’re all in this together

1. Be prepared 2. Caution friends and family 3. Consider working from home 4. Expect traffic changes 5. Help keep roads clear 6. Meet your needs in advance 7. Travel with friends

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1a104de

GD

6/15 August 21 Eclipse expected to draw 1 million visitors

Oregon businesses

A plan to deal with extra traffic helps you keep customers happy and get employees to work on time

1. Allow flexible work hours 2. Car pool 3. Postpone deliveries 4. Telecommute

via Transportation Options distribution

6/21 T minus 2 months— Don’t be a luna(r)-tic

Oregon residents

Visitors

1. Keep your hands on the wheel, your mind on the task and your eyes on the road, not the sky

2. ODOT crews will be posted on critical travel routes

3. All travelers have a shared responsibility to stay safe

4. Properly supplied and informed, we avoid becoming “highway luna(r)-tics”

1. Arrive early, stay put, leave late 2. Be prepared 3. Caution friends and family 4. Help keep roads clear 5. Help our visitors enjoy Oregon 6. Plan to get to where you need to be before you

need to go! 7. Travel with friends

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1a42ae6

http://www.flashalert.net/news.html?id=1200#news105466

GD FA

6/30 Plan to have fun; plan ahead, so you will

• Residents • Visitors

All travelers have a shared responsibility to stay safe

1. Different traffic patterns 2. Emergency operation centers open 3. More signs with advice 4. ODOT trucks pre-positioned 5. Over-dimension loads restricted 6. Truck scales closed 7. Work zones

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1a6aa22

GD

7/7

• Don’t let events eclipse your good judgement on the road

• Changes coming to ease congestion

• Residents • Visitors • Truckers

1. Be patient 2. Expect delays 3. Plan ahead

1. MCTD is taking steps to ease

expected congestion 2. Trucking operators should be aware

of highway conditions

5 secrets of celestial success 1. www.TripCheck.com 2. www.facebook.com/OregonDOT 3. twitter.com/OregonDOT 4. 5-1-1 5. Local media 1. Fire danger will be high 2. Most work zones suspended 3. No large parking, roadside pullout or scale parking 4. No over-width loads

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1a8628c

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1a86276

GD

7/14

7 steps to avoid starting a wildfire during your eclipse travels

• Residents • Visitors

1. Arrive early, stay put, leave late 2. Don’t let your vehicle start a wildfire

1. Avoid driving/parking on dry grass 2. Carry fire extinguisher water, shovel 3. Check your tire pressure 4. Clean exhaust systems 5. Follow recreational forest laws 6. Inspect the vehicle undercarriage 7. Make sure nothing’s dragging

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1aa0d9e

& ODF

GD

7/21 6 ways to beat the heat during #OREclipse

• Residents 1. Don’t treat this as a game day 2. Stay cool; stay hydrated; stay informed

1. Avoid traveling at the expected peak times 2. Have a plan B 3. Learn symptoms of heat-related illnesses

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1abb442

& OHA

GD

7/28

ODOT urges travelers to not pop in and out of #OReclipse

• Residents • Visitors

It’s not a game day: Treat the 3-hour eclipse like a 3-DAY event

1. Arrive early: Don’t be late for your very important date

2. Stay put: Once you arrive, help other travelers by staying off the road

3. Leave late: Beat the congestion somewhere cool and comfortable

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1ad59a2

GD

8/4

Prudence or predicament? Don’t procrastinate planning your #OReclipse travel

• Residents • Visitors

• Plan ahead • Kill these rumors

1. ODOT is NOT planning to close highways 2. ODOT is NOT planning to turn any highways into

one-way roads 3. ODOT is NOT prohibiting truck traffic 4. Rest areas will be open, but they are NOT

available for camping

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1aeeeaf

GD

8/11 #DriveHealthy during the #OReclipse

• Residents • Visitors

• Don’t treat this as a game day • Arrive early, stay put, leave late

1. Showing up Monday morning is too late 2. Leaving immediately after the eclipse is too early 3. Can you travel with others 4. Move over 5. Shoulders are for emergency stopping not parking

• https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDOT/bulletins/1b0687f

• FA

GD FA