Aviation Week & Space Technology - 29 September 2014.pdf

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1/52A PentonPublication AviationWeek.com/awst

Space Cooperationin Turbulent Times

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WEEKAVIATION& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

Wall Streets Gripe

With JetBlue

COLD COMFORT

Defending Greenland

The F-22s

First Kill

RICH MEDIA

EXCLUSIVE

RICH MEDIA

EXCLUSIVE
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Put simply, the 787 equals super efficiency, dramatically cutting our fuel

costs and contributing to record profits for Ethiopian.

Passengers love it and whenever we introduce the Dreamliner on a route

then our load factors improve.

Its clear that the airplane is a technology game-changer,

representing the future of aviation.

Tewolde Gebremariam

CEO

Ethiopian Airlines

THE DREAMLINER EFFECT.

ETHIOPIAN SUCCESS.

www.newairplane.com/787/dreamliner-effect
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Editor-In-ChiefJoseph C. Anselmo

Executive EditorJames R. Asker

Managing Editors Jen DiMascio, Jens Flottau, Graham Warwick

Assistant Managing EditorMichael Stearns

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Director, Digital Content StrategyRupa Haria

DEFENSE, SPACE AND SECURITY

EditorsJen DiMascio (Managing Editor), Jefferson

Morris (Associate Managing Editor), Michael Bruno,

Amy Butler, Michael Fabey, Sean Meade, Frank Morring, Jr.,

Bill Sweetman (Chief Editor, Defense Technology Edition)

CIVIL AVIATION/MAINTENANCE, REPAIR AND OVERHAUL

EditorsJens Flottau (Managing Editor), MadhuUnnikrishnan (Associate Managing Editor), Sean Broderick,

Cathy Buyck, John Croft, William Garvey, Fred George,

Rupa Haria, Kerry Lynch, Guy Norris, Bradley Perrett,

Jessica Salerno, Adrian Schofield, Brian Sumers, Lee Ann

Tegtmeier (Chief Editor, MRO Edition), Jeremy Torr

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AVIATION WEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 3

CELEBRATING THE 2014 RECIPIENTS OF AWARDS FOR:

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INITIATIVE, INSPIRATION, IMPACT AWARD Samantha Pappas, MQ-4C Air Vehicle Test Lead,Naval Air Systems Command 5.1

LEADERSHIP AWARD Leanne Caret, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Boeing Defense,Space & Security

LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD Carolyn Huntoon, Consultant

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8 Feedback

9 Whos Where

10-11 The World

12 Up Front

14 Commanders Intent

16 Inside Business Aviation

17 Airline Intel

18 In Orbit

19 Washington Outlook

47 Classified

48 Contact Us

49 Aerospace Calendar

THE WORLD

10ATK offers conceptfor solid-fuelrocket to replace the Russian-

built RD-180 as Atlas V power

10Embraer establishesU.S. footholdfor production of defense systems

stateside with rollout of the A-29

10First flight for Airbus A320neoopens flight-test campaign with

first deliveries slated for mid-2016

11Oleg Ivanovsky dies,was Sovietspace-technology pioneer

who helped design Sputnik 1

BUSINESS AVIATION

20Airbus engineering expertise tohelp accelerate Aerion supersonic

bizjet design toward production

AIR TRANSPORT

21Aircraft financiers, other business

leaders voicing concerns that the in-

dustry could be in for an awakening

23Air Frances acquiescence to key

demands of striking pilots

could seal the carriers fate

24Wall Street sends message to

JetBlue along with new CEO:

Start acting more like competitors

25Growing number of avionics pro-

viders working to keep data flowing

to ATC despite passengers or crew

32Upset recovery flight training takes

on new importance as more com-

prehensive rules come into force

DEFENSE

26Stealthy, twin-engine F-22 finallyhas destroyed its first target in a

conflict, after nearly 10 years of use

27Given regionaltensions, manyEuropean nations hope to shore

up supply of cruise missiles

28Latest vision for data-sharing acrossships, aircraft and satellites is now

being dubbed the combat cloud

29U.S. Army ponderswhether to deve-lop a new advanced rotorcraft or

put UH-60 through another upgrade

44Japanese requirement for fourmore AEW&C aircraft is

offering export sales opportunity

45Denmark bolstersits Arctic claimsby strengthening defenses in

Greenland, exerting its sovereignty

When Expedition 40 returned to Earth on Sept. 11 after 169 days on theInternational Space Station, Russian technicians were on hand, as always, torecover the two cosmonauts and a U.S. astronaut from their Soyuz capsule.

NASA photo by Bill Ingalls. Today, the U.S. and Russia rely on each other tokeep their human spaceflight programs going. But geopolitical conflicts and

funding constraints present space agencies with new obstacles to cooperationthat require innovative solutions. As the 65th International AstronauticalCongress convenes in Toronto this week, special reports starting on page 36 andan editorial on page 50 examine the future of space cooperation.

Props, simulatorsand jetsare vehicles in the battle for custom-

ers at worlds largest upset recoverytraining providers

ON THE COVER

32

AVIATIONWEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

Digital Extras Tap this icon in articlesin the digital edition of AW&STfor exclusivefeatures. If you have not signed up to

receive your digital subscription, go toow.ly/AkXJo

Winner2013

ContentsSeptember 29, 2014 Volume 176 Number 34

20

Aerion possessed the technology and the vision to develop its supersonic

business jet concept, all that was lacking were the resources and some

skillsand thats where the Airbus Group comes into the picture. Some

of its senior engineers from the military aircraft division will be sent to

Reno, Nevada, to work with the Aerion team.
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45

EDITORIALS

50Chinese are intenton being a spacepower on par with U.S. and Russia,so bring them into the tent

50Pilots will have to share the blameif Air France folds because itcan no longer be competitive

26

29

SPACE31FAA spacetransportation offi ce pub-

lishes recommended practices forhuman spaceflight occupant safety

SPACE COOPERATION

36Tensions related to the Ukraine situ-ation and other matters have leftspace alliances relatively unscathed

38Competition for public fundsworldwide and export controlscomplicate space cooperation

40Following the ISS model, civilagencies tap private partners

for spaceflight developments

42Chinese spacestation offeringa range of opportunities forinternational coooperation

September 29, 2014 Volume 176 Number 34

A roundup of what youre reading on AviationWeek.com

The Sept. 25 inaugural flight of the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-powered Airbus A320neo is the

most significant milestone in the history of the single-aisle twin since the original CFM56-5-powered

prototype flew for the first time in February 1987, writes Senior Propulsion Editor Guy Norris. Read

about the flight on page 10, then take a peek inside Aviation Weeks archives to see how we

covered the A320s debut 27 years ago. ow.ly/BV25PAviationWeek.com/100

The F-22 made its first combat strike last week. Read our story (page

26) and two blogs inspired by the event. Senior International Military

Editor Bill Sweetman asks whether an unmanned aircraft could have done

the job just as well: ow.ly/BUUqX And Senior Pentagon Editor Amy Butler

ponders whether there wasmore at play than dropping a bomb:ow.ly/BUUBe AviationWeek.com/Ares

RAPTOR ATTACK

Nominations for Aviation Weeks 58th annual Laureate Awards close Oct. 3.

Review the categories and enter now!ow.ly/BUu3x

On last weeks column by Pierre Sparaco on the Air France-KLM

pilot strike, Stephane wrote, The main problem is not the Air

France pilots, whose productivity is the same as their European

peers. The big [problem] is the number of ground staff.ow.ly/BUXlh

Keep up with all the news and blogs from Aviation Weeks editors.

Follow @AviationWeekor like us atFacebook.com/AvWeekFollow

On the Web

READER

COMMENT
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LIMIT THE LIGHTLED Astray (AW&STSept. 22,

p. 28) is timely. Ive found the greentaxi lights at Denver International Air-port to be too bright. After landing, weasked ground control if they could dimthem and were told that they were as

dim as they could be. We were also toldthat many such complaints are lodged.All pilots should tell the FAA to dis-

approve further use of LEDs until thedimming problem is resolved. Also, theFAA needs to publish in its Airport/Facility Directory and in Jeppesenmaterials where LED lighting is in use,and issue appropriate cautions.

Bob WalkerCHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA

BLUE SOLUTIONLED Astray is long overdue. In the

case of automobiles, it is obvious thatthese lights are an order of magnitudemore dazzling than incandescents.

Their introduction was astonish-ing, and in defiance or ignorance of

basic optical physiology. If you wishto dazzle someone, blue light is best.French headlight design has alwaysrecognized this. Spectroscopic analysisis hardly needed, and dimming themdown will merely reduce the area ofthe retina rendered ineffective.

Lew CreedonOCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA

UPDATED E-8CS, PLEASEI am dismayed that a very old pho-

tograph accompanied More for Less(AW&STSept. 15, p. 42), an excellentarticle about the proposed replacementJoint Surveillance Target Attack Radar

System (Joint Stars) aircraft. The E-8Con page 44 has a WR tail code, whichdates from the 93rd Air Control Wing(ACW) at Robins (Georgia) AFB. Themission and the jets were transferredto the 116th ACW of the Georgia Air Na-tional Guard in 2001 and have sported

GA tail codes since then. Each day ofthe 13 years that followed has seen theseaircraft and crews deployed for combatoperations. Many photos of the aircraft

with the proper markings are available.I served as wing historian, so am

particularly sensitive to this matter.ANG MSgt. (ret.) William T. BrockmanATLANTA, GEORGIA

AIRPOWER SEA CHANGE NEEDEDJust as is the case with the current

Joint Stars, U.S. Air Force culture willcontinue to be the biggest challenge

facing a replacement aircraft. Despitethe immense advances that have beenmade in our ground surveillance andprecision-attack capabilities, the AirForce continues to see itself as playinga supporting role to the Army whenfighting land forces. Unlike naval air-men in the 1930s who had the vision torecognize that technology was makingit feasible and necessary to reversethe roles between naval air and sur-face forces, Air Force leaders continueto be unable to recognize how our in-

creasing capabilities have made it es-sential, for war-fighting effectiveness,to reverse the roles between air andland forces. As is the case with surfaceforces in naval warfare, land forces

will continue to play an important rolein military operations, but increas-ingly land forces should be supportingour airpower.USAF Lt. Col. (ret.) Price T. BinghamMELBOURNE, FLORIDA

FLIGHT SAFETY, FROM THIS VIEW

I feel that Lee Moaks recent View-point warrants a rebuttal (AW&STSept. 15, p. 58). On Aug. 1, 2010, Presi-dent Barack Obama signed PL 111-216,The Airline Safety and FAA Extension

Act, into law. The act included provi-sions for creating Federal AviationRegulation (FAR) Part 117 Flight Time/Duty Time rules. Regardless of re-gional airline new hire issues; this FARcreated an artificial pilot shortage insenior pilot ranks and affected safety.

Part 117 is a fiasco for many inter-national pilots. Crew rest has beenimpinged by longer working hours andfewer hours of scheduled rest at layover

hotels. Now international flights aretreated the same as a 1-hr. city-hoppingflight between small towns.

Stakeholders, FAA, Airlines 4America (industry group), and theAirline Pilots Association (ALPA) eachhad politics and economics to consider.Commercial interests were correct, therule does require more pilots and costsmore. Pilots on property are now suffer-ing the brunt of longer working hours

and less layover time between flights.The overall excuse we hear from the

pilots unions is that Part 117 rules arebased on science. But there are flaws inthe pseudo-science used to create newrest rules. International flying is not re-gional flying. During some internationaltrips pilots, in-theater are scheduledfor multiple legs over water with shortlayovers for 2-3 consecutive days.

It is time for Congress to demandanswers from the FAA, airline man-agement, and ALPA as to why they

have lengthened flights and shortenedlayovers between flights.Capt. William M. ErmolovichSAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA

EYES ON THE SKIES WHEN FLYINGI agree with reader Keith Darrow

that the selfie category added to thisyears Aviation Week annual photoissue is dangerous (AW&STSept. 22,p. 10). It is not safe to use a camera

when flying solo. Either in the late1970s or early 80s the Air Force lost

two A-7 jets due to a mid air collisionbetween a lead and his wingman.Cause: Lead was flying his jet whilelooking through a camera lens tryingto take a picture of his wingman.

David DelisioWALKERSVILLE, MARYLAND

C-130 BUSTSurely the photograph with Slice

and Dice (AW&STSept. 22, p. 18) wasnot a C-17 dispersing flares. It lookslike the venerable C-130.

Mark CanepaFRESNO, CALIFORNIA

(The reader is correct-Ed.)

Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technologywelcomesthe opinions of its readers on issues raised inthe magazine. Address letters to the ExecutiveEditor, Aviatio n Week & Spac e Technology,1911 Fort Myer Drive , Suite 600, Ar lington, Va.22209. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-ma ilto:[email protected] should be sh orter than 200 words, andyou must giv e a genuine identi fication, addressand daytime telephone number. We will notprint anonymous letters, but names wi ll be

withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.

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SPACE

SpaceX Delivers to ISSA temporarily reduced crew of threeon the International Space Stationpending arrival on a Soyuz capsule late

Sept. 25 EDT of three new crewmatesthat was launched earlier that daygrappled the fourth SpaceX Dragon car-go capsule to reach the orbiting outpostunder the companys $1.6 billion, 12-flightcontract with NASA. Astronauts usedthe stations robotic arm early Sept. 23to catch the vehicle with its 4,885-lb.cargo as it rendezvoused with the orbit-ing science laboratory, and berthed itto the U.S.-segment Harmony module.The cargo includes 20 mice, fruit fliesand plant samples, which will serve assubjects in experiments intended to

investigate changes in physiology andmetabolism brought on by weightless-ness at the molecular and genetic levels.The RapidScat sensor, which arrivedin the Dragons unpressurized trunk,

will be extracted with the robot arm andmounted outside the stations Columbusmodule to measure wind speed anddirection on ocean surfaces, providinginformation that could in part improvetropical weather forecasts (AW&STSept. 15, p. 17).

Playing NiceThe U.S. Strategic Command has finallysigned a data-sharing agreement withkey allies that is designed to streamlinethe process of gathering informationfrom orbiting satellites and providingspace situational awareness to foreignoperators. Such information is crucialfor launch support, satellite maneuverplanning, support for on-orbit anomalies,electromagnetic interference reportingand investigation, satellite decommis-sioning activities and on-orbit conjunc-

tion assessments, command officialssay. The agreement was signed Sept. 23.

DEFENSE

South Korea Orders F-35sSouth Korea and the U.S. governmenthave completed negotiations on SouthKoreas order for 40 Lockheed MartinF-35A Joint Strike Fighters, accord-ing to the South Korean government.The negotiations covered price, off-sets and technical details, and openedthe way for South Korea to sign aletter of offer and acceptance for the

new aircraft. Deliveries are expectedbetween 2018 and 2021.

AIR TRANSPORT

Comac Assembling First C919Final assembly of the first Comac C919narrowbody airliner has begun, withthe joining of the forward and centerfuselage sections at the Chinese statemanufacturers new plant at Shanghai.While assembling the aircraft, due to flynext year, Comac says it is also workingon the development of onboard systems.The exact time planned for next years

first flight has not been disclosed, but itis probably late in the year.

Embraer Rolls OutFirst USAF Super TucanoAfter years of bitter competitions,

Embraer has nally established a U.S.

foothold for production of defense

systems stateside with the rollout of its

rst A-29 Super Tucano for sale to the

U.S. Air Force.

Embraer is teamed with Sierra Nevada

Corp. to deliver 20 Super Tucanos to the service, which then plans to transfer them to

Afghan forces. The team also is training U.S. instructor pilots and maintainers, who will

train Afghan forces to use the system. Training in Afghanistan is slated for early next

year. This was the companys rst successful venture into the U.S. defense market. Embraer

previously won a contract with Lockheed Martin to supply ERJ 145s for intelligence aircraft;

the deal cratered once it became evident the platforms were too small to contain the

equipment required for the service.

First Flight for A320neoFour years after its launch, the Airbus

A320neo has completed its rst ight.

The aircraft landed back at Toulouses

Blagnac airport at 2:22 p.m. local time

on Sept. 25 after 2-hr. and 22-min.

During the ight, the aircraft stayed

near Toulouse and started opening the ight envelope at a medium

speed and altitude range initially.

The aircraft was own by Philippe Pellerin and Etienne Miche

de Malleray, both experimental test pilots. Also on board were

Test Flight Engineer Jean-Paul Lambert and Flight Test Engineers

Manfred Birnfeld and Sandra Bour-

Schaeffer.

Airbus will use eight new-engine-op-

tion aircraft for the ight-test campaign:

four A320s, two A319s and two A321s.

Around 3,000 ight-test hours are

planned. The initial ight-test aircraft is

powered by Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engines and will be joined by

a second Pratt-equipped airliner later this fall. The two CFM Interna-

tional Leap-1A-powered A320neos are to follow in the late spring and

summer of 2015. The A320neo with PW1100G engines is scheduled to

enter revenue service in the fourth quarter of 2015 while delivery of the

The World


ATK Develops So lid-FuelRD-180 Replacement

Concepts for replacing the Russian-built

RD-180 rocket engine presented to the

U.S. Air Force last week include a solid-

fuel concept developed by ATK, drawing onheritage from the companys space shuttle

and national security product lines.

ATK is stressing its experience in building

solid-fuel motors for the U.S. strategic forces

and NASAs space shuttle eet as a fast way

AIRBUS/P.PIGEYRE

to replace the RD-180 to power the United

Launch Alliance Atlas V to orbit. Because

these motors are kind of synergistic with

motors that weve developed or are in

development today, the timeline on them is

three years to have them developed, tested,

test-red and to the customer, says formershuttle commander Kent Rominger, vice

president of business development for ATKs

Space Launch Div.

In lieu of the Atlas V rst stage, which car-

ries a single RD-180 generating 860,000 lb.
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rst CFM-equipped aircraft is planned for the second quarter of 2016.

With few modications made to the aircraft itself, Airbuss main

challenge beyond the ight tests will be to succeed with an un-

precedented ramp-up of NEO production, from zero to 46 aircraft

per month within three years. The transition from the current A320

version to the NEO is to be completed in 2018. The manufacturer has

gone to great lengths to prepare companies in its supply chain for the

ramp-up and plans to implement the new production capacity in the

rst quarter of 2017.

Airbus has a total of 3,257 rm orders for the A320neo family,

which is equivalent to a market share of around 60%. Airbus is

preparing for a major shift in demand among the different versions

and plans to allocate almost half of the production to the A321neo.

It also has raised maximum passenger capacity to allow for lower

unit costs. The A319neo will hold 160 passengers (up from 156),

the A320neo will go to 189 from 180 and the A321neo will carry

240 passengers, 20 more than the current A321.

For more breaking news, go toAviationWeek.com


Check 6Aviation Week editors discuss the first flight of theA320neo and whats next for Airbus in the latest Check 6.AviationWeek.com/podcast

Photo GalleryFollow an illustrated timeline of the A320neofamily developmenttap here in the digital edition or go toAviationWeek.com/A320neoTimeline

thrust and the necessary tankage to carry its

kerosene fuel and liquid-oxygen oxidizer, ATK

would use two solid-fuel stages, one twice as

long as the other, plus as many as ve strap-

on solid-fuel boosters.

The Atlas V stack would remain at the

same height191 ft.to allow use of theexisting space launch complexes at Cape

Canaveral and Vandenberg AFB, California.

ATK would develop a separate mobile launch

platform and integration facilities, which

would allow the variant using its concept to

OBITUARY:Oleg Ivanovsky, a Soviet space-technology

pioneer who helped design Sputnik 1 and

bolted Yuri Gagarin into the Vostok capsule

he also helped to design before the historic

rst human spaceight, has died, accord-ing to the Russian space agency, Roscos-

mos. He was 92. The time and place of his

death were not announced.

Ivanovsky was recruited for the Soviet

space program by Sergei Korolev, the legendary general de-

signer who oversaw his nations entries in the Cold War space

race. A 1953 graduate of the Moscow Power Engineering Institute,

Ivanovsky became a chief designer of space vehicles at Korolevs

design bureau, known as OKB-1, where he had worked since return-

ing from combat with the Red Army during World War II. Ivanovsky

helped Gagarin mount the gantry and get

settled in the Vostok 1, and later as-

sisted in rebolting the hatch after Korolev

signaled that there was an indicationul-

timately found to be falsethat it had not

sealed properly. Roscosmos says Ivanovsky,at right in the photo, was the last person to

shake Gagarins hand before the launch.

After Gagarins ight, Ivanovsky was

transferred to the staff of the Council of

Ministers organization that oversaw the Soviet military industrial

base, and in 1965 became deputy chief designer at the Lavoch-

kin organization. In that role, he oversaw the design of the Soviet

Unions robotic lunar rovers and other major spacecraft. The author

of seven books on space, Ivanovskys ofcial honors included the

Soviet Unions Lenin and State prizes.

AP/WIDE WORLD FILE PHOTO

be phased in without shutting down a pad for

modications. Were assuming that is unac-

ceptable to the Air Force, says Rominger.

The two new stages would use com-

posite cases instead of steel for greater

performance, and solid-propellant grain

designs tailored to provide a comparablelaunch environment to the Atlas V. Thrust

oscillation from the vibrations generated by

solid-fuel motors as they burn out caused

design problems with NASAs Ares I crew

launch vehicle, which had a rst stage

based on ATKs shuttle solid-fuel boosters.

That should not be a problem with the Atlas

V, Rominger says, because the two-stage,

solid-fuel stack will not tune with the

vehicles cryogenic upper stage to produce

unacceptable loads on the payload.

ATK believes its concept also will bringcheaper operations than the use of the liquid-

fuel engines proposed by Aerojet Rocketdyne

and others (AW&STSept. 15, p. 27). We feel

we can be very competitive in both develop-

ment and recurring costs, says Rominger.

Collins Cockpit for MA700Avic expects to wrap up supplier selec-tion for the MA700 by the middle of Oc-tober, following its choice of the RockwellCollins Pro Line Fusion avionics suitefor the cockpit of the 78-seat turboprop.Pratt & Whitney Canada and GEsDowty will supply the MA700s enginesand propellers, respectively.

BUSINESS

More Money

Financial analysts at RBC CapitalMarkets expect Lockheed Martin to

soon announce a 15% increase in itsplanned dividend payment to share-holders to $6.12 a share, as well as in-creased stock buyback plans. Share

buybacks and dividend payouts areat record highs for aerospace anddefense companies, as well as acrossWestern stock markets.

BUSINESS AVIATION

NetJets To Charter in ChinaNetJets is to begin providing char-

ter services within China followingreceipt of an air operators certificate

from the Civil Aviation Administra-tion of China. The Chinese equivalentof FAA Part 135 approval allowsNetJets Business Aviation Ltd. toprovide ad-hoc charter service withits initial fleet of two Hawker 800s

based in Zhuhai. NetJets Chinesearm plans to offer aircraft manage-ment and block charter as the nextsteps. Ultimately, NetJets plans tooffer fractional aircraft ownershipin China, but because of the lack ofairspace flexibility the timeframe is

a bit premature, says Chairman andCEO Jordan Hansell.
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12/52


13/52

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14/52

Commanders Intent

COMMENTARY

By Bill Sweetman

Read Sweetmans posts onour weblog ARES,updated daily:

AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

Control Sqdn. opera-

tions officer.

It seemed like a goodidea at the time, butlessons learned from

Vigilant Eagle likelyaided in the executionof a more-recent exer-cise, its name unknown.Russian Mikoyan MiG-31Foxhound long-rangefighters (photo)a typethat Russian forces flew in

Vigilant Eagleaccompa-nied two Tupolev Tu-95MS bombers toa point 55 nm from the Alaskan coaston Sept. 17. Two Ilyushin Il-78 tankerssupported the formation, which turned

back when it was intercepted by a pairof Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptors.

The nuclear-attack drill was partof an escalation in long-range Russianoperations worldwide, and showed adeveloping tactic in which MiG-31sescorted Tu-95s and Tu-142 recon-naissance aircraft. The change follows

the introduction of the modernizedMiG-31BM, now due to be flyinguntil 2029. Also entering service isthe Tu-95MSM, armed with the newKh-101/102 cruise missile that hasa reported range of up to 2,700 nm(AW&STSept. 15, p. 47). This weaponsmix offers the attacker new tacticaloptionsincluding a reconnaissance-strike complex with the MiGs asshootersand poses correspondingchallenges for the defender.

Along with Russias persistence inthe development of the Bulava sea-launched ballistic missile, the replace-ment of older intercontinental ballistic

Four years ago, a North American Aerospace Defense Com-mand officer sang the praises of a joint exercise with Russianforces, named Vigilant Eagle. This exercise is one milestone

in working together. Our folks are proud to be a part of such an

important event and are passionate about partaking in efforts

to protect our borders, said Lt. Col. John Oberst, the 176th Air

Goodbye Global ZeroNuclear investments will be a hard sell

missiles by the road-mobile RS-26 andthe apparent breach of the Intermedi-ate-range Nuclear Forces treaty by thetesting of the Iskander-K truck-mobilecruise missile, these developmentshave (to put it mildly) weakened theargument that if the U.S. led the wayin cutting its nuclear forces, the rest ofthe world would follow.

A U.S. administration that startedout showing sympathy with the GlobalZero movement has quietly made

decisions that point in a very differentdirection. Notably, the future of thenuclear-deterrence triad seems moreassured than it has for many years.

Between Barack Obamas first elec-tion and inauguration, the first signifi-cant contract for what is now the OhioReplacement Program submarine proj-ect was signed, and the administrationhas continued to support it. The contro-

versial issue of whether, when and howthe Long-Range Strike Bomber will benuclear-capable has been put to bed:Every LRS-B will be nuclear-capableand will be nuclear-certified two yearsafter it enters service.

The LRS Family of Systems defini-tively includes a new cruise missile andat a symposium in Washington earlier

this month, Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson,commander of U.S. Air Force GlobalStrike Command, said the nuclear-tipped version will take priority over aconventionally armed missile.

The new submarine and the LRS-B are uploadable systems that cancarry more warheads if strategicrequirements change. A senior air forceofficial last week said the LRS-B would

be designed with hardpointssuggest-ing it could be a cruise-missile carrier.

Also recently revealed is a newICBM to replace the Minuteman III,

the first such weapon since the short-lived Peacekeeper. Many analysts hadexpected the Minuteman to soldier onlike Washingtons hatchet, with everypiece being replaced from time to time,if the land-based ICBM survived atall. Now, the Ground-Based StrategicDeterrent missile will replace the Min-uteman in existing silos after 2030.

But these plans are fiscally and po-litically difficult. The nuclear establish-ment is returning from a long procure-ment holiday, and finding what you

usually find: leaky faucets, blown fuses,weed-ridden yards and a pile of bills.

The Ohio replacement will eat one-third of the U.S. Navys shipbuilding

budget (strained by the well-above-ex-pectations cost of Ford-class carriersand Littoral Combat Ships) and theservice is calling for top-line reliefthe technical term for some of the AirForce or Armys money.

While it now seems accepted that theNational Nuclear Security Administra-tion can do a Washingtons-hatchet trick

on the nuclear stockpile, its infrastruc-ture is heavy with Cold War and evenWorld War II hardware; not only will thisnot last forever, but it is not an environ-ment that attracts the best talent.

But the longest holiday of all hasbeen philosophical: Most people, evenin the armed forces, have been able tospend a long time not thinking aboutdeterrence, and the world in whichsuch matters are discussed remainssmall and somewhat isolated. As the

world moves into an era of multiple,sometimes unstable nuclear playersand as the bills come due, that is aluxury we cant afford. c

DIMITRYPICHUG

IN

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16/52

Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey

COMMENTARY

Business & Commercial

AviationEditor-in-ChiefWilliam Garvey blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

This signal airplane is among theworlds most prosaic, a Cessna 172, thesingle-engine, four-place, high-winger

that populates major airports andgrass strips throughout the world.With 48,000 delivered since produc-tion began in Wichita in 1955, the Sky-hawk is the most populousairplane ever.

What caused the smilingcrowd to gather round

when this one rolled outthe door in late August wasits birth order: the 10,000thsingle-engine aircraft pro-duced at Cessnas facility

in Independence, Kansas(photo). Its birth, a manu-facturing mini-miracle.

In the mid-1980s, Cessnaand other light-plane build-ers were in big trouble. Bythen their 17,000-airplane years of thesupercharged 1970s seemed imagined;in 1986, they shipped fewer than 1,500.Wichita was awash in pink slips. Cess-nas employee count had cratered from18,000 in 1981 to less than 3,000 five

years later. Turbine airplanes were still

selling, but the market for new piston-powered aircraft had evaporated.

Meanwhile, light planes were attract-ing the unwelcome attention of triallawyers who were steadily filing productliability suits against airframers andtheir vendors, often involving equipmentthat was decades old. The expense of de-fending sometimes frivolous suitsandof settlements, judgments and increasedinsurance rateshad the manufacturershowling for relief.

Russ Meyer, the Harvard lawyerwho then headed Cessna, became soconcerned about the suffocating situ-ation and the seemingly infinite liability

Drumroll, please, for little N708LU. It was frustratingly slowin arriving, but still the fantastic result of bold posturing,hard politicking and delivery on a decade-old promise.

Crossing the LineLegislative grenade and a signaturefinally put things in motion

attendant to the tens of thousands ofCessnas already in the field, that he shutdown piston-engine plane production.

He said Cessna, whose light planes hadtaught the world to fly, would not buildone more until the liability problem wasfixed. The year was 1986.

The solution eventually was a billto limit the period of product liability,formally a statute of repose, to 18

years from the date of manufacture.The legislation was sponsored by U.S.Sen. Nancy Kassebaum (R-Kan.) andU.S. Rep. Dan Glickman (D) of Wichita.

Both worked the Capitol and signed uphundreds of co-sponsors. Meanwhile,Meyer, with Ed Stimpson, then-pres-ident of the General Aviation Manu-facturers Association, promoted thelegislation to anyone who would listen.

There was one who would notThe worst congressman in history,the nearly always gentlemanly Meyerrecalled recently. He was Jack Brooks,the stogie-chomping, gruff-talking,Marine who represented East Texasand chaired the House Judiciary Com-mittee. A trial lawyers champion, the

brusque Brooks clearly viewed Glick-mans bill as a threat to fellow solici-

tors income streams and refused torelease it from committee. For years.

Finally, Glickman, a Democrat like

Brooks, pulled the pin from a legislativegrenade, authoring a discharge peti-tion that lawmakers could sign to forcethe bill to the floor. When the signaturesexceeded the minimum required foraction, Brooks finally relented andreleased the bill. It passed quickly.

President Bill Clinton signed the Gen-eral Aviation Revitalization Act (GARA)into law on Aug. 17, 1994, telling Glick-man, Kassebaum, Stimpson, Meyer andothers in the Oval Office, I know its go-ing to create jobs. As it turned out, one

job went to Glickman, who, after losing

his reelection bid later that year, becameClintons agriculture secretary.

Having repeatedly pledged to restartlight-plane production once the liabilitymatter was resolved, Meyer proved goodto his word. But since the previous facili-ties had been fully repurposed, he had tofind another location. Every governor

wanted us, Meyer recalls, but Kansaswas our heritage, our roots.

The winning site was a 213-acre ploton a former U.S. Navy training field inIndependence, a small town 100 mi.

southeast of Wichita that, having recent-ly lost some key industries, welcomedCessna hungrily. The IndependenceBulldogs marching band greeted Meyerand entourage on a freezing ramp thatDecember. Eighteen months later, Sky-hawks were coming down the brand-newassembly line. The year was 1996.

Cessna was prepared to deliver1,500-2,000 single-engine 172s, 182s,and 206s annually by 1998, and thus

would have passed the 10,000 markby the early 2000s. But GARA did not

protect sales projections from ter-rorisms fallout and global economiccollapse. So, to help absorb some of thecapacity at the 528,500-sq.-ft. facility,the company moved assembly of thesingle-engine TTx there (along withthe Mustang and M2 jets). That helpedto finally push N708LU across the line,a decade later than expected.

Reflecting on it all, Meyer says hesparticularly proud of GARA, withoutquestion the most important piece of leg-islation in the history of the light aircraftindustry. The Independence plant, its500 employees, and one celebrated Sky-hawk are prima facie evidence.c


TEXTRON AVIATION
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17/52

COMMENTARY

Through the ups and downs of its 30-year history, Virgin Atlan-tic Airways has been amazingly successful at establishingits brand, Chief Executive Craig Kreeger recently pointed out,although less successful at making money. The carriers highestprofit was a pretax gain of 99 million ($162 million, at todaysrate) in 1999, Kreeger told The Wall Street Journal this month.

Finding Its WayVirgin Atlantic looks to find profits intransatlantic routes and cooperation with Delta

Airline Intel


By Cathy Buyck

Brussels Bureau ChiefCathy Buyck blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/wings

[email protected]

Kreeger, a former American Air-lines executive, was appointed CEO ofthe U.K. carrier in February 2013 witha clear mandate: to turn around thegroups financials, without tarnishingthe brand, and grow the customerexperience. The 55-year-old U.S.national is confident Virgin Atlantic ison the right track and will be profit-able by year-end, stanching years ofred ink.

But the prospective turnaround

comes with a deep restructuring of theairlines network and the realizationthat much of its heritage and gameplan needed adjusting. The indepen-dent streak and lone ranger attitudeare being dropped for a closer relation-ship with its joint-venture partner andshareholder, Delta Air Lines, whichpurchased Singapore Airlines 49%stake last year for $360 million.

Virgin Atlantic is also ditching itslongtime love for four-engine widebod-ies, replacing its Boeing 747-400s and

ineffi cient Airbus A340s with A330sand 787-9s to reduce fuel costs. It hastaken delivery of 10 A330-300s, and its787-9s will start commercial service

next month. The airline is the 787-9European launch customer and hasfirm orders for 21 of the type.

Virgin Atlantic will cease year-roundflights from London to Tokyo Naritaand Mumbai and cancel seasonalservices to Vancouver and Cape Town,South Africa, between now and early2015. The aircraft used for these routes

will be redeployed on the transatlanticmarket, including: a new daily servicefrom Heathrow Airport to Detroit, a

key Delta hub; additional daily servicesto New York John F. Kennedy Airportand Los Angeles; as well as seasonaldaily flights to Atlanta and San Fran-cisco in summer and Miami in winter.

The network changes also involve aroute swap with Delta. A daily Heath-row-Newark, New Jersey, service will

be taken over by Delta, while Virgin At-lantic will fly the Manchester-Atlantaroute. Delta will also launch a new dailyservice between Manchester and New

York-JFK next summer.

The network revamp amounts to 500more flights between the U.K. and U.S.in the summer of 2015. Once all networkchanges are implemented, Virgin At-

lantic will put more than two-thirds ofits capacity on the transatlantic routes

while trimming its global footprint. No

new non-U.S. long-haul routes are beingconsidered for the moment.The heavy dependence on the North

Atlantic is not novel for the airline. Infact, it was the reason for its near-downfall after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror-ist attacks, and its consequent decisionto reduce capacity to North America.This strategy is now being reversed.

Kreeger insists it was not a strate-gic objective to refocus on the North

Atlantic, but simply a matter of a routeanalysis. Is the route profitable? Ifnot, do we think it could be profit-

able if we put a different airplane onthe route? he says. Four that were asignificant drain on the financials werediscontinued, but Virgin Atlantics ser-

vices to the U.S. are its most financiallysuccessful.

The airline is adding capacity onroutes with the most financial upswingand those into Delta hubs, such asDetroit, New York-JFK, Atlanta andLos Angeles. The performance of thecarriers transatlantic services hasimproved due to the partnership with

Delta, which offers one-stop connec-tions in the U.S. for Virgin AtlanticsU.K.-based customers and provides theairline effective distribution and accessto corporate accounts in the U.S.

The Virgin Atlantic-Delta transat-lantic joint venture is still in its infancyand, while it has not yet receivedanti-trust immunity status, it presentsother transatlantic alliances a strongercompetitor. It is especially unwelcomenews for Air France-KLM. Followingthe deal with Virgin Atlantic, Delta

has pulled its U.S.-U.K. traffi c out ofits long-established three-way transat-lantic joint business with Air France-KLM and Alitalia. cJO

EPRIESAVIATI

ON.N

ET
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18/52

In Orbit

COMMENTARY

By Frank Morring, Jr.

Senior Editor FrankMorring, Jr., blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/onspace

[email protected]

Jeff Bezos, the billionaire entre-preneur behindAmazon.com,hasdefinitely placed his mark on theplanet. His retail genius is embodiedin the convenience of online shoppingfor just about everything (thats whereI bought my camera), and in the saddecline of bookstores and record shopsthat once afforded pleasant respitefrom the hustle-bustle of modern life.

For the past 14 years, Bezos hasbeen working to put his mark off theplanet as wellquietly, as is his wont.

Blue Origin, the startup space com-pany Bezos endowed, has generateda fair amount of smoke and fire at itsWest Texas test site, but very littlepublicity. The Seattle-based companyemploys a PR firm, and maintainsa website that affords snippets ofinformation about its suborbital- andorbital-spacecraft developments. Butin general, the companys work takesplace behind a veil of secrecy.

Some of that work has been quiteimpressive, as Blue works toward un-manned flight tests in 2018 of a biconicorbital vehicle aimed at human space-flight (AW&STDec. 9, 2013, p. 29). Now

They dont call it the bullet train for nothing. Hurtling throughJapans industrial heartland last April en route to a space so-lar power conference in Kobe, I realized Mount Fuji was looming

majestically above the clouds off to the right. But at 200 mph, the

Shinkansen moves so fast that

I couldnt really see the blurred

foreground in the viewfinder of

my point-and-shoot camera as

I snapped a keepsake image. It

was only when I downloaded

my shot that I realized it was

dominated by a huge Amazon

fulfillment center. The blank

gray structure literally blotted

out Japans 12,000-ft. special

place of scenic beauty (photo).

Space CadetBezos has a vision for commercial space

the companyand its founderhavetaken a major step into the limelight

with the Sept. 17 announcement thatit is developing a 550,000-lb.-thrustrocket engine for United Launch Alli-ance (AW&STSept. 22, p. 26).

Coming as it did when the U.S.is rethinking its decision to launchnational security payloads with theRussian RD-180 engine that powersULAs Atlas V, the announcement drew

a standing-room-only crowd to hearBezos explain why space interests him,and what he wants to do there.

First, the why: You dont chooseyour passions, Bezos says. Yourpassions choose you. For me, space issomething that I have been in love withsince I was five years old. I watchedNeil Armstrong step onto the surface ofthe Moon, and I guess it imprinted me.

Given his career, Bezoss early fascina-tion is a ringing endorsement for theinspirational value of space explorationas an engine for the economy. He is saidto spend a day a week on Blue Originaway from his day job atAmazon.com.

Im very, very lucky, he says. Iget to live and work in the future. Itsfantastic, and thats where I spend the

vast majority of my time.During the Washington press confer-ence announcing the engine deal, ULAPresident and CEO Tory Bruno said he

wasnt accustomed to sharing the stagewith another rocket scientist. It is clearthat Bezostrained in computer scienceand electrical engineeringhas pickedup some propulsion expertise in choos-ing technology for the new BE-4 engine.

We evaluated all the usual suspectsin terms of operating cycles, he says.We looked at gas generator, we lookedat tap-off, and we chose ox-rich staged

combustion as the right cycle for thisengine. Its been a very good choice.Its 550,000-lb.-thrust. It uses liquefiednatural gas [LNG] as a fuel, liquid oxy-gen as an oxidizer. As you can see fromthe model, it uses a single turbopump,one shaft, so its as simple as it can be

while still being high-performing andhighly reliable.

The Blue/ULA deal is entirely private,with the launch company making whatBruno calls a major investment in thenew engine. Using LNG also will require

a redesign of the Atlas V or whateverlaunch vehicle ULA intends as a follow-on, including larger tanks able to handlethe low-temperature, high-pressure fuel.

Lockheed Martin, which contrib-uted the Atlas design as its half ofthe ULA joint venture, already is setup to manufacture LNG tanks at theMichoud Assembly Facility in NewOrleans, where it once built externaltanks for the space shuttle. And whilehe has used government funds at Bluein the past, Bezos makes it clear he

prefers the private approach.What I dont like to do is start some-

thing that isnt fully funded, becauseone of the things that slows down de-

velopment is start-and-stop cycles, hesays. So its important to me to knowthat Blue Origin is on a path that it canfund this engine on its own.

Ultimately, Bezos says, Blue hopes tofly the BE-4 in a reusable vertical-take-off/vertical-landing launch-vehicle stageto cut the cost of access to space dramat-ically. That could mean a new customer

base for the Bezos enterprise. What wewant to have happen is millions of peopleliving and working in space.c


FRANKMOR

RING,

JR./

AW&ST
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19/52

Washington Outlook

Sierra Nevada Corp. is not happy about its loss to Boeing andSpaceX in the competition for federal funds to completecommercial human vehicles to take crews to the InternationalSpace Station (ISS), but it plans to keep building its reusablelifting-body spaceplane and use it to compete for the next roundof ISS commercial cargo-delivery contracts NASA awards. Lossof the bidding war to two capsule designsBoeings CST-100

and the crew variant of the Space X Dragon (AW&STSept. 22,p. 24)didnt sit well with Sierra Nevadas managers. Theywere contemplating a formal protest of NASAs decision withthe Government Accountability Offi ce on technical and financialgrounds, according to Mark Sirangelo, head of the companys

Space Systems unit in Louisville, Colorado.

More than 90 surgeworkers, who had beenhired there as the companygeared up for a contract win

were laid off on Sept. 24, butSirangelo says the companyretains a very significantcore team to keep theDream Chaser projectmoving. The company ispreparing for more glidetests of its atmospheric testarticle, following a landinggear mishap that marred theotherwise-successful first flight (AW&STNov. 4, 2013, p. 28). Lockheed Martin has

built flight-hardware composite struc-

ture for the first orbital Dream Chaser.Anticipating a growing market for hu-man transportation to low Earth orbit,Sierra Nevada has an international teamof industrial partners and potential cus-tomers, including the European Space

Agency, German Aerospace Center andJapan Aerospace Exploration Agency. Itretains suffi cient resources to continuethe work, Sirangelo says.c

BEAUTIFUL FRIENDSHIP

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modiarrives for his first state visit to theU.S. at a time when he is trying to

build Indias manufacturing base to

wean the country off foreign defenseimports. But that intake will continuefor quite awhile. Among Modis many

meetings is one with executives from11 multinational companies, includingGeneral Electric and Boeing. India re-cently OKd the purchase of $2.5 billion

worth of CH-47F Chinook and AH-64DApache helicopters, but this has yet tobe finalized. Additional defense dealscould be announced during his visit.

To allow for still more deals cur-rently blocked by export regulations,including one for Raytheons Javelinanti-tank missile, Sen. John McCain(R-Ariz.), a senior member of theSenate Armed Services Commit-tee, recommends the U.S. allow thetransfer of sensitive U.S. technology

to India, which needs to develop thewherewithal to protect it. It shouldmean joint development and produc-

tion of leading-edge military systems,McCain says. Anti-tank missiles, asenvisioned by the Defense Trade andTechnology Initiative, would be a goodstart. But when the prime minister andpresident meet this month, I hope theylay out more ambitious joint ventures,like shipbuilding and maritime capa-

bilities, even aircraft carriers. c

SHOW TIME

The FAA has granted six aerial photoand video operators permission to usesmall unmanned aircraft for filmingon closed sets. Exemptions to a ban onflying commercial UAVs in civil airspace

were via petitions coordinated by theMotion Picture Association of America.

A seventh operator is being considered,says Administrator Michael Huerta.

The exemptions allow operators tofly a UAV within the sterile airspace

of a closed set, keeping thevehicle within line of sight ofthe operator, and require acertified pilot with a privatepilots license. Also, the

FAA requires the UAV tobe inspected before eachflight and any accidents orincidents to be reportedto the agency. The FAA isreviewing 40 more requestsfor exemptions, includingfrom agricultural, survey andpipeline inspection indus-tries. Guidelines have been

posted for a preparing a petition andother operators, particularly groupsrepresenting industry sectors, are be-

ing encouraged to apply. c

STAYING POWER

Sometimes just hanging in can workat least when it comes to the F-35 JointStrike Fighter. The recent fleet-widegrounding due to engine problems hasnot impinged on congressional supportfor the jet. And that is likely to remainthe case provided there is no majordisruption, says Senate Armed Ser-

vices Committee Chairman Carl Levin(D-Mich.), who will retire at the end ofthis term. The further along it getseven though its limping alongthestronger it gets. c

Dream OnSierra Nevada to keep chasing NASA contract

COMMENTARY

Edited by Jen DiMascio

Managing Editor-Defense,Space & Security Jen DiMascio blogs

at:AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]


Lockheed Martin hasbuilt ight-hardware composite

structure for the rst orbital Dream Chaser.

LOCKHEED

MARTIN
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20/5220 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

When it was formed in 2002, Aerion had a technology anda vision, but not the resources or skills needed to turnits idea for an effi cient supersonic transport into a real-

ity. As it worked to validate its supersonic natural laminar-flowdesign, the small company looked for a manufacturer to developand produce its supersonic business jet concept.

Now Airbus Defense & Space hasagreed to a technology collaborationthat Aerion says will give it access toengineering skills in the disciplinesrequired to move the program aheadtoward certification and production.Both companies say they are com-mitting significant resources to thepartnership.

For Airbus Group, supportingAerion in design of its AS2 business jetwill provide valuable work for seniorengineers from its military aircraftdivision, which has been negatively af-fected by declining defense spending.Longer term, the European giantspresence at the high end of the busi-ness jet market through Airbus Cor-porate Jets could conceivably comeinto play.

Reno, Nevada-based Aerion says theengineering collaboration with AirbusDefense & Space marks a huge leapforward to being a program that willresult in an aircraft that will be on the

market in the not too distant future.The schedule calls for a first flight in2019 and certification in 2021. Thethree-engine AS2 will sell for morethan $100 million, but a third marketstudy completed early this year con-firmed a projected market of 600 air-craft over 20 years, Aerion says.

Aerion CEO Doug Nichols confirms

significant commitments have beenmade on both sides, while declining toprovide details. Airbus will locate se-nior engineering staff with the designteam in Reno to provide expertise inaerodynamics, structures, fly-by-wireflight controls and certification plan-ning. They will cover the full spec-trum of technical and industrial disci-plines needed, says Nichols.

The size of the Airbus team hasyet to be defined, says the Europeanmanufacturer. Nichols says Aerionsengineering workload will ramp up

beginning in 2016. Aerions technologyis of interest to Airbus, and this agree-

Graham Warwick Washington

Full Speed AheadAirbus engineering expertise will help acceleratesupersonic business jet design toward production

BUSINESS AVIATION

ment provides Aerion with access toAirbus Group skills in disciplines thatwill move the program solidly towardcommercialization, he says.

The U.S. companys supersonicnatural laminar flow technology, de-

veloped by its chief technology offi-cer, Richard Tracy, allows the AS2 tocruise more effi ciently at high speed

while enabling a configuration thatminimizes the drag penalty of flyingat subsonic speed. The aircraft hastwo cruise design points where rangeand effi ciency are at a maximum: Mach1.4 for flight over water, and over land

where supersonic flight is permitted;and Mach 0.95 where civil supersonic

flight over land is prohibited, includingthe U.S.In countries where supersonic flight

over land is permitted as long as thereare no adverse sonic-boom effects,the AS2 will be able to cruise at up toMach 1.15-1.2 without the boom reach-ing the ground, because of atmo-spheric dissipation, Nichols says. Thismeans the aircraft does not require arelaxation of the regulatory ban onsupersonic flight over land to be com-mercially viable, he notes.

Aerion last year completed flighttests with NASA to validate its designcodes for supersonic natural laminar

AERION CONCEPT

Now with three engines, the 160-ft.-long, Mach 1.6Aerion AS2 has reached the advanced design stage.


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the turn of the decade, Boeing will beshifting from the 777 to the 777X.

The debate about optimal produc-tion rates gained momentum afterUBS published a study signaling cau-tion just days before the Istat event.While its sees a rough balance of sup-

ply and demand in the narrowbodymarket until 2018, production rates forlong-haul aircraft need to be cut by upto 30%, it says.

The disconnect: While current wide-body production plans suggest that de-mand will increase 6% a year until 2018,UBS is forecasting a more modest 4%rise. If UBS is correct, Boeing and Air-

bus would be producing 200-250 moreaircraft per year than the market couldabsorb. The banks analysts suggest

cutting A330 output to four per monthfrom 10, decreasing the 777 rate to fourfrom 8.3 per month, and freezing the787 rate at 10 per month rather thanraising it to 14. But UBS makes themost radical recommendation for thelargest jets: Airbus should cut produc-tion of the A380 to one a monthfrom30 per yearand Boeing should stop

building the 747-8 altogether.That, of course, is unlikely to hap-

pen, at least in the short term. Bothmanufacturers have pledged to keepproduction as stable as possible, al-though Airbus has conceded that A330rates are likely to come down some-

what. UBS believes Airbus will buildonly 40 A330s in 2018, down from this

years high of 110. But introduction ofthe A350 should more than compen-sate for that 70-aircraft reduction.

In fact, Leahy is more concernedthat Airbus may not deliver as many

A350s as would be in demand be-cause of its conservative productionramp-up. We are being prudent, butit bothers me, he says. Airbus might

soon decide to go for higher produc-tion rates, though: I believe this will

be decided sometime next year, headds. By year-end, the aircraft makerplans to be building three A350s permonth, up from two now; by the endof 2015, it targets producing five A350s

per month; and by 2018, 10 per month.The UBS analysts forecast that Boe-ing 777 production will decline to 60 per

year in 2018 from 96 now, and 747 and767 rates will settle to one per monthin 2016. By 2018, 140 787s will be builtper year, they project, up from 108 this

year. Airbus will deliver 529 narrowbod-ies in 2018 (up from 483 this year), theanalysts expect, and Boeing deliveries

will increase by six aircraft to reach 490over four years, UBS estimates.

UBS is not alone in its concerns. Ear-lier this year, Bank of America MerrillLynch analysts issued similar warnings(AW&STJuly 14, p. 24). And ThomasHollahan, managing director at Citi,says that this industry is still subjectto event risk and it is always good to as-sume another one is around the corner.

Welsh says that the U.K. ExportFinance program is now typically re-ceiving around 80 bids by banks for its

business per transaction, compared to2-3 only a few years ago. He says thatsome of the banks coming in with fi-nancing proposals for aircraft transac-tions are hardly known.

The availability of cheap financing isa key ingredient of the marked changesthe aircraft business has undergone inthe last several years. It is a functionof the proliferation of new financiersin the market, including private equity,and it raises questions for banks es-tablished in aircraft financing and les-sors. However, Air Lease Corp. (ALC)Chairman/CEO Steven Udvar-Hazythinks many of the new entrants will

AIR TRANSPORT

disappear when the next crisis hits.Adam Pilarski, senior vice president

at Avitas, has been warning for sometime that airlines are overordering. IfMiddle East and low-cost airlines suc-ceed, someone else has to fail, he says.Boeing and Airbus have to assume a

huge number of retirements in ordernot to end up in an overcapacity situ-ation, he says. On the other hand, heconcedes that both manufacturers have

become sophisticated in overbookingnarrowbody production, which is mak-ing shifts in delivery schedules easierto handle.

Pilarski also notes the unique setof conditions the industry has beenoperating in for some years: High fuelprices have led to the development ofnew aircraft such as the A320neo andthe Boeing 737 MAX, which airlines

can afford to buy in large quantities be-cause financing is so cheap and easilyavailable. But, he asks, what if one ortwo of the underlying parameters suchas high fuel prices or cheap financingchange over time?

Udvar-Hazy has concerns of a differ-ent nature. There is a good symmetry

between the backlog and productionrates, he says. But our deeper con-cern is about how the very complexsupply chain will deal with production.While Airbus and Boeing are increas-

ing output, other players such as Bom-bardier (with its CSeries), Comac andMitsubishi are entering the market,and Udvar-Hazy worries that somesuppliers will have difficulties. Headds that galleys and seats have thelongest lead times I have ever seen inmy career. . . . We are reaching a pointof saturation. Therefore, ALC is urg-ing manufacturers to not overbuild, hesays, because they may not be able tomeet their contractual obligations.

In terms of airline demand, Udvar-

Hazy is less concerned. We will seea massive shortage of certain types,and in other cases we will see a steadydegradation of values, he says. Over-all, Airbus and Boeing have sold moreaircraft than they can build, he notes.The ALC portfolio of orders, at least, isallocated to a large extent to replacingolder aircraft rather than growing fleets.

Philip Scruggs, president and chiefcommercial officer of AerCap, says heis primarily concerned about carefulmanagement of production. If Airbusand Boeing are not vigilant, they couldrun into lead time and supply issues,he argues. c

In spite of planned hikes in production, analystssay an oversupply of narrowbodies such as the

Boeing 737 is unlikely.

JOEPRIESAVIAT

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When the JetBlue AirwaysBoard of Directors decidednot to renew CEO Dave

Bargers contract but instead elevateairline President Robin Hayes to thetop spot, it implicitly endorsed a viewheld by many on Wall Street that thecarrier, while profitable, lags too far

behind its rivals.Barger, an original JetBlue execu-

tive, took over in 2007 after the boarddetermined the carriers visionaryfounder, David Neeleman, struggled atrunning day-to-day operations. Bargerquickly fixed the operation, helping itrecover from a devastating valentinethat was delivered on Feb. 14, 2007,

when the airline failed to properly pre-pare for and react to an ice storm thathit the New York area. But like Nee-leman, who insisted JetBlue be morerefined than its competitors, Bargerkept the focus on the customer, pre-ferring not to add baggage fees or seatsto aircraft even when most other U.S.

carriers adopted bothpractices.

His resistance to somerevenue-generating ideasmay have been Bargersdownfall. Despite signal-ing in recent months hemight remain at JetBlue,Barger will be replacedon Feb. 16 by Hayes, aformer British Airwaysexecutive vice presidentfor the Americas. Hayes

is not talking revenuehe has not been sayingmuch at allbut WallStreet analysts say they are hopefulJetBlue will start acting more likecompetitors. In arguing this summerfor a CEO change, Cowen & Co. analystHelane Becker wrote: JetBlue is anoverly brand-conscious and customer-focused airline, which has resulted inlagging fundamentals.

JetBlue made money in the secondquarter, although its $230 million prof-it mostly came from the sale of subsid-iary LiveTV to Frances Thales Group.Excluding special items, earnings were

Brian Sumers Los Angeles

Profit Vs. BrandIn a move cheered by Wall Street,

JetBlue appoints new CEO

19 cents per share, roughlyin line with analysts esti-mates. Last year, JetBluehad its most financially re-

warding year in its 15-yearhistory, reporting a profitof $168 million, or 52 cents per share.It also had a strong 2012, with $128 mil-lion in profit, or 40 cents per share.

What I see Dave Barger doing isleading the company through difficulttimes and not going into bankruptcy,says George Hamlin of Hamlin Trans-portation Consulting. If theres some-thing wrong with that, I am living in astrange world.

But Wall Street analysts, who havewatched American Airlines and DeltaAir Lines report massive profits whilemaking relatively minor business mod-el changes, expect Hayes to be moreaggressive in adding revenue. UnderHayess leadership, JetBlue likely

will soon charge for the first checkedbagBarger was also leaning in that

directionand may de-cide to add as many as12 seats to the airlines

Airbus A320s. For now,JetBlues standard pitchon its 150-seat A320s is34 in., three more thanUnited Airlines regulareconomy pitch on thesame aircraft. Hayescould also start monetiz-ing JetBlues onboard In-ternet, as analyst Becker

recommended in a recentnote.Travel industry ana-

lyst Henry Harteveldt of AtmosphereResearch Group says he expects Hayes

will act more forcefully to drive rev-enue, while retaining touches thatmake JetBlue unique. Will the airlineadd a hub somewhere in the middle ofthe country to capture more custom-ers and be more useful and improvethe utility of the airline? Harteveldtasks. If they were to have a hub inthe center part of the country it wouldhelp the airline capture more corpo-rate customers. I think Robin is going

to be very focusedon how to capturemore HVC, or high-

value customers. Tofurther attract thosecustomers, Hayescould unveil premi-

um-cabin marketsbeyond New York,San Francisco andLos Angelestheonly cities that nowhave JetBlues Mintservicepushing theairline beyond its

single-cabin comfort zone.However, neither Hamlin nor

Harteveldt believes Hayes will greatlyshift the airlines culture, at least notquickly. Evolution tends to work bet-ter than trying to boil the ocean and

make massive changes, Harteveldtsays. I dont think there will be anymassive changes announced at once,in part because of the complexity ofthis industry.

Barger was particularly concernedabout anything that might dilute theairlines brand. He often argued thatmore comfortable flights helped drivecustomer preferenceand with that,revenue. Even if Wall Street did not un-derstand it, he defended the practiceof offering more legroom, free Internet

and free snacks. What about some-one who is going to pay you a premiumto fly to from Hartford, Connecticut,to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, he saidin August. All of a sudden its not acommodity business. Theyll pay you apremium for it. . . . Not a whole lot, butenough that over time we can improveupon our financial markers.

For all the revenue knocks againstBarger, however, he has left Hayes

with an operationally sound airlinewith strength in three important mar-

ketsNew York, Boston and Fort Lau-derdaleas well as a successful focuscity in Long Beach, California. New

York was always JetBlues home, butBarger pushed the airline to expand inBoston and South Florida, both profit-able markets. He also expanded Jet-Blue into the Caribbean and Centraland South America and created a newpremium transcontinental productcalled Mint, which offers flat-bed seats

between New York and Los Angelesand San Francisco. The product wasdesigned because JetBlue calculated it

was leaking otherwise loyal customerson these key routes. c

AIR TRANSPORTZUMAPRESS/NEWSCOMFILEPHOTO

David Barger will be step-ping down as JetBlue CEO.

Robin Hayes has been ap-pointed CEO of JetBlue.

JOEPRIESAVIATION.N

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25/52AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 25

John CroftWashington

Trouble-Free TrackingCompanies pursue designs for

tamper-proof surveillance and tracking

Skip Nelson could be on the vergeof another first in the field ofautomatic dependent surveil-

lance broadcast (ADS-B) technol-ogytamper-proof ADS-B. Nelsonscompany, Anchorage, Alaska-based

ADS-B Technologies, is one of a grow-ing number of avionics providers thatare envisioning or implementing de-signs and methods to keep data flowingto air traffic control or airline opera-tions centers despite attempts by pas-

sengers or crew to cut the connection.No stranger to ADS-B, he was the

first pilot to fly with ADS-B for criti-cal air traffic control surveillancepurposes as part of the FAAs Capstoneproject in Alaska in 2001. More re-cently, he conducted in a Piper Navajo

what he calls the first demonstration ofa dual-link space-based ADS-B systemin all environments for extended peri-ods of time on a flight from Anchorageto Florida and back. Dual-link meansthe system works with either 978-MHz

universal access transceivers (UATs),an ADS-B solution primarily for air-craft flying at 18,000 ft. or below, and

with 1,090-MHz extended squitter ra-dios, a surveillance solution generallyfor airlines.

Nelson is partnering with satellitenetwork provider Globalstar to offerthe space-based ADS-B Link Aug-mentation System (ALAS), whichsends ADS-B information from anaircraft at 1-sec. intervalsa servicethat competitor Aireon also plans to

offer for the North Atlantic oceanicregion beginning in 2018. The base-line ALAS taps into the coaxial cableantenna feed from an existing ADS-Breceiver to its antenna. The passivecoupler sends a copy of the payloadthrough an ADS-B Technologies low-power modem that embeds the mes-sage in L-band code. The signal is sentout via a skyward-facing L-band andS-band antenna (the S-band portion isfor receiving UAT information) up tothe Globalstar constellation of 24 low-Earth orbiting satellites and down toGlobalstar-built ground stations.

The architecture, however, has the

same Achilles heel as ground-basedADS-Bthe system could be disabledby someone in the cockpit who eitherturns the system to standby or pullsthe circuit breaker. In the disappear-ance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370in March, the aircrafts transponderstopped working as did its AircraftCommunications Addressing and Re-

porting System (Acars) unit, anoma-lies that may have been caused byelectrical issues or perhaps sabotagein the cockpit.

While some have suggested replac-ing the circuit breaker for the ADS-B

with a fuseable link, the problem re-mains that the unit can also be disabled

by setting the controls to standbymode. New designs emerging leavethe transponder as is, and secure thesystem elsewhere.

From a certification standpoint,Jeff Brunner, vice president of certifi-cation engineering for Calgary-basedFlyht Aerospace, says there is no re-quirement that pilots have access tocircuit breakers, which protect power

wires from carrying current levels thatcould start a fire. For certain essential

avionics and systems, designers put thecircuit breaker in the cockpit so thatpilots can have the option of resetting a

breaker in cases of a spurious electricalsurge and other related instances. Butif you put a thicker circuit breaker inan inaccessible position, then theres no

option to reset that breaker, he says.You live with that limitation.Flyht builds automated flight infor-

mation reporting system (Afirs) avi-onics that send routine performanceand burst-mode streaming data toairline operations centers using theIridium satellite network. In use by 30customers on 350 aircraft, the com-pany offers a FlyhtSafe option with a

visual and audible alert to dispatch-ers that is automatically triggered byconditions such as excessive pitch and

bank angles, high speeds below 10,000

ft. or excessive descent rates. In alertmode, it sends selected flight recorderparameters every 20 sec. or less, lead-ing to position reports roughly every2.5 nm traveled at cruise speed. The

tracking and alerting system canbe disabled with the pull of a circuit

breaker however.Al thou gh no ai rl in e cu st om ers

have asked for a tamper-proof option,Flyht has come up with a designanalternate power source that kicks inif the circuit breaker in the cockpit ispulled. Afirs already has an alternatepower source the company installed soairlines can track when the auxiliarypower unit is running while cleaningcrews work on an otherwise unpow-ered aircraft. A tamper-proof system

would involve connecting that backup

power directly to the aircraft batteryor a dedicated emergency battery witha remote circuit breaker.

Nelsons design would use a fuse-able link backup battery with a 10-hr.life. When we detect there has beenan interruption in the signal, otherthan being on the ground, then thesmall ADS-B transmitter embedded in

ALAS would take over and broadcastthe ships position for as long as the

backup battery lasts, he says. Nelsonwould need guidance from the FAAor international community to deter-mine what emergency code the system

would send in that situation. c

JOHN CROFT/AW&ST

Pilots or others have multiple waysto disable transponders, includingenacting a standby mode or pullinga circuit breaker in the cockpit.
http://aviationweek.com/awsthttp://aviationweek.com/awsthttp://aviationweek.com/awst



Amy ButlerWashington

Raptor ReleasedDesigned for Cold War threats, the F-22

makes its first strikeat a terrorist facility

After $79 billion dollars of workand nearly 10 years of operation-al use without a kill, the stealthy,

twin-engine F-22 has finally destroyedits first target in a conflict.

Ironically, however, its initial shot didnot guard against an airborne threat,the rationale behind so many of theF-22s dazzling and expensive features.Instead, a Raptor pilot destroyed afixed ground target, thought to be acommand-and-control facility for Is-lamic State (IS) extremists that havegained footholds in Syria and Iraq. Thepilot, using a GBU-32, a 1,000-lb. Joint

Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), con-ducted the attack early Sept. 23 againsta facility in Raqqah, Syria, ISs self-pro-

claimed capital. The F-22 was includedin the second wave of strikes in Syria.The first included a volley of 47 Toma-hawk missiles launched from two U.S.Navy ships in the Red Sea and northernPersian Gulf largely targeting areas oc-cupied by the previously little-known AlQaeda splinter group Khorasan.

The second surge of strikes, the firstto include aircraft, featured the F-22alongside F-15Es, F-16s, B-1s and un-manned aircraft. A third included F/A-18s from the USS George H.W. Bush,also sailing in the northern Persian Gulf.Of the roughly 200 weapons delivered,96% were precision-guided. Jordan,

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emir-ates, Bahrain and Qatar also providedassistance, including some fighter jets.

This is not necessarily the debutairpower advocates envisioned for theF-22, which was criticized for decadesas a costly boondoggle in air-to-airdominance technology. Many wouldlike to have seen footage of a smol-dering MiG fighter shot down by theRaptor. Though originally included inthe requirements, the ground-attack

capability came late in the aircraftsprotracted development, and some sayit was an afterthought. In testing, the

F-22 dropped its first 1,000-lb. bombin 2004 and its first 250-lb. Small-Di-ameter Bomb (SDB) three years later.

The entire fleet can drop the 1,000-lb.weapon, but fleetwide SDB operationsare slated to start in October 2017.

U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. (ret.) DavidDeptula, a strategist and former cam-paign planner in the service, argues thata ground attack is a fitting debut for thefighter for which he spent so much timeadvocating. This engagement addressesmisnomers that have been applied tothe airplane, that it is incapable ofground attack, he says. That is what[then-Defense Secretary] Bob Gatesdidnt understand. It was not just anair-to-air airplane, Deptula adds, voic-ing a common refrain among F-22 advo-

cates that Gatess decision to end F-22production at 187 jets was premature.Gates, however, justified that by citingthe fighters high development cost andper-unit price of more than $130 million.

The fact remains that the F-22sstealthy qualities appear not to have

been tested. Army Lt. Gen. Mayville,director of operations for the JointStaff, characterized Syrias integratedair defense system as passive. If ithad been active, it would have been for-midable, a factor driving war plannersto employ the F-22.

You have a set of significant air de-fenses, and there is a degree of uncer-tainty regarding how the integrated airdefense system is going to respond andreact, Deptula says. The inclusion ofthe F-22 al

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