Aviation Weather Center: Products & Services Overview Utility of Ensemble Model Guidance
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Transcript of Aviation Weather Center: Products & Services Overview Utility of Ensemble Model Guidance
Aviation Weather Center:Aviation Weather Center: Products & Services OverviewProducts & Services Overview
Utility of Ensemble Model GuidanceUtility of Ensemble Model Guidance
Andy Fischer, Pat Murphy, & David BrightAndy Fischer, Pat Murphy, & David BrightChicago Aviation Weather WorkshopChicago Aviation Weather Workshop
February 25, 2011February 25, 2011
Support for the FAASupport for the FAA
System Ops Flight Standards Flight Safety
FAA – FAA – Gives NWS requirements for products/servicesGives NWS requirements for products/services
CCFP
No cost
to FAA
CWSUADDS
SIGMET
AIRMET
Area Forecast
Sig Wx Low
Winds Aloft
TAF
“Red Book” Gx
No cost to FAA
WAFS SIGWX
Intl. SIGMETs
IFFDP
No cost to FAA
ICAO/WMO
AWC’s Area of Responsibility for AWC’s Area of Responsibility for Aviation Warnings (SIGMETs)Aviation Warnings (SIGMETs)
SIGMET, AIRMET & SIGMET, AIRMET & Area ForecastArea Forecast
3 Forecast Desks 24/73 Forecast Desks 24/7 CONUS & Coastal WtrsCONUS & Coastal Wtrs
Graphic & Text ForecastsGraphic & Text Forecasts AIRMETs AIRMETs
26280 routine issues/yr26280 routine issues/yr
FA FA 6570 routine issues/yr6570 routine issues/yr
SIGMET (non Convective)SIGMET (non Convective) ~ 500 avg. annual~ 500 avg. annual
Low-Level GraphicLow-Level Graphic 1456 routine issues/yr1456 routine issues/yr
BOSZ WA 071545 AIRMET ZULU UPDT 3 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL 072100 AIRMET ICE...ME NH VT MA AND CSTL WTRS FROM 70NW PQI YOW TO YSC TO 70NW PQI MOD ICE BTN FRZLVL AND 140. FRZLVL SFC-040. CONDS CONTG BYD 21Z THRU 03Z.
1 Forecast Desk 24/71 Forecast Desk 24/7 SIGMET for thunderstormsSIGMET for thunderstorms
““Warning” ProductWarning” Product
Associated Hazards:Associated Hazards:Turbulence, Icing, & Wind Turbulence, Icing, & Wind Shear Shear
CONUS and coastal watersCONUS and coastal waters Issued Hourly / Valid for 2 hrsIssued Hourly / Valid for 2 hrs ~ 30,000~ 30,000 issued annually issued annually
Convective SIGMETConvective SIGMET
MKCE WST 071855 CONVECTIVE SIGMET 8E VALID UNTIL 2055Z FL AND CSTL WTRS FROM 40NNE CTY-30N OMN-70WSW PIE-170W PIE-40NNE CTY AREA EMBD TS MOV FROM 27020KT. TOPS TO FL350. REF INTL SIGMET CHARLIE SERIES.
OUTLOOK VALID 072055-080055 FROM 30N CRG-190ENE OMN-100SW SRQ-100WSW PIE-30N CRG WST ISSUANCES POSS. REFER TO MOST
Collaborative Convective Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)Forecast Product (CCFP)
1 Forecast Desk 20/71 Forecast Desk 20/7 Strategic traffic flow Strategic traffic flow
managementmanagement Collaborators:Collaborators:
FAAFAAMeteorologists at Meteorologists at
CWSUs, Airlines, and CWSUs, Airlines, and AWCAWC
CanadaCanada ~ 25,000 ~ 25,000 Forecast Forecast
Polygons annuallyPolygons annually
Significant Weather FcstsSignificant Weather Fcsts
2 Forecast Desk 20/72 Forecast Desk 20/7 Covers FL250 - FL630Covers FL250 - FL630 Global forecastGlobal forecast
24 hour forecast:24 hour forecast: Jet StreamsJet Streams ThunderstormsThunderstorms TurbulenceTurbulence Tropopause Tropopause
HeightsHeights Active VolcanoesActive Volcanoes Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones
18,980 routine 18,980 routine issuances/yr issuances/yr
Gulf of Mexico & CaribbeanGulf of Mexico & Caribbean
1 Forecast Desk 24/71 Forecast Desk 24/7 Oceanic (Atlantic and Oceanic (Atlantic and
Pacific) SIGMETsPacific) SIGMETs Weather Forecasts Weather Forecasts
primarily for Helicopter primarily for Helicopter OperationsOperations CloudsClouds VisibilityVisibility ThunderstormsThunderstorms Rain/FogRain/Fog WindWind
4,000 Operating Oil Platforms4,000 Operating Oil Platforms 30,000 personnel living on oil 30,000 personnel living on oil
platformsplatforms 600 Helicopters600 Helicopters 1.3 Million flights annually1.3 Million flights annually
World Area Forecast CenterWorld Area Forecast Center
World Area Forecast System (WAFS)World Area Forecast System (WAFS) Formulated by International Civil Aviation Organization and the Formulated by International Civil Aviation Organization and the
WMO WMO Improve the quality and consistency of enroute guidance provided Improve the quality and consistency of enroute guidance provided
for international aircraft operationsfor international aircraft operations World Area Forecast Centers (WAFC)World Area Forecast Centers (WAFC)
WAFC – WashingtonWAFC – WashingtonAWC provides Significant Weather Forecasts AWC provides Significant Weather Forecasts NCEP Central Operations Provides Wind and Temperature Grids NCEP Central Operations Provides Wind and Temperature Grids
ChartsChartsNWS Telecommunications Gateway supports satellite data broadcastsNWS Telecommunications Gateway supports satellite data broadcasts
WAFC – LondonWAFC – LondonMet Office – ExeterMet Office – Exeter
AWC Product IssuancesAWC Product Issuances
ProductProduct #/Year#/Year
Convective SIGMETConvective SIGMET ~30,000~30,000
Non-Convective SIGMETNon-Convective SIGMET 500500
Collaborative Convective Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)Forecast Product (CCFP)
25,00025,000
AIRMETsAIRMETs 26,28026,280
Area Forecasts (FA)Area Forecasts (FA) 6,5706,570
Significant Weather LowSignificant Weather Low 1,4561,456
Significant Weather HighSignificant Weather High 18,89018,890
Operational Automated Operational Automated ProductsProducts
Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG)
Forecast Icing Severity (FIS)
Current Icing Product (CIP)
Forecast Icing Probability (FIP)
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Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) makes available to the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) makes available to the aviation community text, digital and graphical forecasts, analyses, aviation community text, digital and graphical forecasts, analyses, and observations of aviation-related weather information and observations of aviation-related weather information
Meets FAA requirements for “Qualified Internet Meets FAA requirements for “Qualified Internet Communications Provider”Communications Provider” Allows operational use by part 121/135 operators (airlines)Allows operational use by part 121/135 operators (airlines)
Operational Since 2003Operational Since 2003 AveragingAveraging
9 million hits per month9 million hits per month 100 GB per day100 GB per day
Not just a web display Not just a web display Is a dynamic databaseIs a dynamic database
Already has many NEXTGEN Already has many NEXTGEN data service capabilitiesdata service capabilities
ADDS joint developedADDS joint developed NCAR, GSD, and AWCNCAR, GSD, and AWC
New Products – Looking New Products – Looking Toward NextGenToward NextGen
Valid 18-00Z Valid 18-00Z tomorrowtomorrow
Depicts 40, 60, 80% Depicts 40, 60, 80% probability of probability of thunderthunder
Uses CCFP “look Uses CCFP “look and feel” and feel”
Quick look at where tomorrow’s Quick look at where tomorrow’s main impact will bemain impact will be
Extended Convective Forecast Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP)Product (ECFP)
ECFP + SPC + AWC = ECFP + SPC + AWC = ConsistencyConsistency
Automated based on SREF Prob 26hr in advance
Partially automated based on SREF 9hr in advance
6hr CCFP
Aviation Impact Guidance for Aviation Impact Guidance for Convective Weather (AIGCW)Convective Weather (AIGCW)
Historic Traffic
All levels FL > 250 FL < 100
Raw SREF Prob
Ensemble Guidance at AWCEnsemble Guidance at AWC Develop specialized guidance for the specific application
(convection and other aviation weather hazards)
Design guidance that…Help blend deterministic and ensemble approachesProvide guidance for uncertainty/probabilistic forecastsProvide guidance that aids confidence (i.e., better
deterministic forecasts) Illustrates plausible scenariosAllows for diagnostic analysis – not just a statistical black-box
NWS/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)
EMC SREF system (21 members)87 hr forecasts four times daily (03, 09, 15, 21 UTC) North American domainModel grid lengths 32-45 km Multi-model: Eta, RSM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARWMulti-analysis: NAM, GFS initial and boundary conds. IC perturbations and physics diversityRecently added bias-correction to some fields
Ensembles Available at AWC: SREF
SREF 3h Calibrated Probability of a Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm = > 1 CG Lightning Strike in 40 km grid box
(Bright et al., 2005) http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/84173.pdf
Perfect Forecast
No Skill
Calibrated SREF Thunder ReliabilityCalibrated SREF Thunder Reliability
Calibrated Thunder Probability
Climatology
Frequency[0%, 5%, …]
SREF Probability Convective Cloud Top > 37 KFt
Test Version: 03Z SREF Day 1 ENH Guidance (Summer 2008)
Probability Echo Tops >= 35KFT
Outline
Introduction
Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)
Future Aviation Ensemble ApplicationsApplications and calibration under development
One hourly SREF thunderstorm guidance (through F036) *Calibration of potential impacts of convection in SREF ^Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast (RREF) – 1hr updates, RUC based
*Storm scale (e.g., supercells, squall lines) applications being evaluated
*Not discussed today^Collaborating with John Huhn, Mitre Corp.
Gridded Flight Composite (20 km)December 2007 to August 2008 – Above 250 KFT
20 km Grid (AWIPS 215)Data from John Huhn, Mitre
Probability (%) aircraft is inside grid box
Gridded Flight Composites (20 km Grid) at 00 UTCJanuary 1, 2004 to December 31, 2008
All Flights < 10,000 Feet All Flights > 25,000 Feet
Snapshot probability of an aircraft inside the 20 km (AWIPS 215) grid box
SREF Guidance 15 UTC 10 June 2008 F009 valid at 00 UTC 11 June 2008
Calibrated Probability of a T-Storm Probability of Tops > 37,000 Feet
SREF Impact Guidance 15 UTC 10 June 2008 F009 valid at 00 UTC 11 June 2008
Impact of Thunderstorms: < 10 kft Impact of Tops: En Route > 25 kft
Future Applications: Storm Scale Ensemble (SSEF)
NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) HWT Spring Experiment
Focused on experimental high-res WRF forecasts since 2004 (dx ~2-4 km) Convection allowing ensemble forecasts (2007-2009) to address uncertainty
10 WRF members 4 km grid length over 3/4 CONUS Major contributions from: SPC, NSSL, OU/CAPS, EMC, NCAR Resolving convection explicitly in the model
Evaluate the ability of convection allowing ensembles to predict: Convective mode (i.e., type of severe wx) Magnitude of severe type (e.g., peak wind) Aviation impacts (e.g., convective lines/tops) QPF/Excessive precipitation Year 1 Objective (2007): Assess the role of physics vs. initial condition uncertainty at high resolution
2003 Spring Experiment
Probability Updraft Helicity > 50 m2/s2
Probability of Supercell Thunderstorms
F026: Valid 02 UTC 22 Apr 2008UH > 50 + 25 mi
Observed Radar
Radar BREF 0142 UTC 22 Apr 2008
Probability Updraft Helicity > 50 m2/s2
View of the left split looking south from Norman, OK (0145 UTC 22 Apr 2008)
(Numerous large hail reports up to 2.25”)
Jack Hales
Convective Mode: Linear Detection
Determine contiguous areas exceeding 35 dbZEstimate mean length-to-width ratio of the
contiguous area; search for ratios > 5:1Flag grid point if the length exceeds:
200 miles
Probability Linear Mode Exceeding 200 miles
Squall Line Detection F024: Valid 00 UTC 18 Apr 2008Linear mode + 25 miles
Probability Linear Mode Exceeding 200 miles
Squall Line Detection F026: Valid 02 UTC 18 Apr 2008Linear mode + 25 miles
Squall Line Detection
Probability Linear Mode Exceeding 200 miles
F028: Valid 04 UTC 18 Apr 2008Linear mode + 25 miles
Linear Convective Mode: Impacts
Aviation impacts ~ 01 UTC18 April 2008
Image provided by Jon Racy