Aviation Safety in a changing world FSF MED MAY 2014 Airbus Product Safety Frédéric COMBES Head of...
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Transcript of Aviation Safety in a changing world FSF MED MAY 2014 Airbus Product Safety Frédéric COMBES Head of...
Aviation Safety in a changing world
FSF MED MAY 2014
Airbus Product SafetyFrédéric COMBES
Head of Accident / Incident Investigation
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
In 1960, 40 aircraft took off every hour.
Today, there are 3100 aircraft taking off every hour, that is almost one every second around the world.
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
The number of commercial airlines worldwide increased by 70% over the past 40 years.
It doubled in the Indian sub-continent.
It more than trippled in China.
It was multiplied by 4.5 in CIS.
Today, there are more than 2000 commercial airlines around the world
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
The number of airports for commercial aviation worldwide remained virtually unchanged over the past 40 years.
In Europe, Japan or the US, 1 runway is built every ten years.
In China 82 new airport projects are planned to be started by the end of 2015.
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
The fleet of the largest airline is above 700 aircraft.
40% of airlines have a fleet of less than 5 aircraft.
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
In 1970, a « low cost » airline didn’t mean anything
Today, 15% of the traffic is performed by low cost airlines worldwide
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
In the 80’s, airlines employed almost exclusively local pilots
Today, some airlines employ more than10 different nationalities of pilots
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The changing landscape of Aviation…
A barrel in current US $ was around
33 $ in 1982,
19 $ in 1992
25 $ in 2002
Today, it is above 100 $
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
What will the aeronautical environment look like in the future?
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?
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
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Air Transport is adynamic complex system
with huge variability
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
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What is the Global Safety Perspective ?
What are the possible ways forward ?
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A340 Family
A330 Family
A350 Family
A320 Family
A300/A310 Family
A380 Family
Airbus fleet – End Feb. 2014
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Orders
324 124 124
377 377 353
814 0 0
1313 1061 1048
816 816 400
10241 5961 5749
In operationsDeliveries
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A340 Family
A330 Family
A350 Family
A320 Family
A300/A310 Family
A380 Family
Airbus fleet – End Feb. 2014
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Orders
324 124 124
377 377 353
814 0 0
1313 1061 1048
816 816 400
10241 5961 5749
In operationsDeliveries
13895 Aircraft Ordered390 Operators
8339 A/C Deliveries5556 A/C Backlog
7674 A/C In Operations
~210 000 000 FH since EIS~105 000 000 FC since EIS
More than 25 000 Flights per day
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Ways forward
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MAJOR RISKS• Loosing sight of key assets: high professional
standards• Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES• The holistic nature of air transport• The variability of operational contexts• The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and
its uncertainty
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Ways forward
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MAJOR RISKS• Loosing sight of key assets: high professional
standards• Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES• The holistic nature of air transport• The variability of operational contexts• The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and
its uncertainty
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 10 20 30 40 500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Fatal accident rate – Dec. 2012
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Fatal accident per million departures
1st generation:Early jet
1st generation
All aircraft
3rd generation:Glass-cockpitNav displayFMS
3rd generation
4th generation:FBWFlight EnvelopeProtection
4th generationYears of operation
2nd generation:2nd jet generation
2nd generation
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 10 20 30 40 500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Fatal accident rate
Fatal accident per million departures
1st generation:Early jet
1st generation
All aircraft
3rd generation:Glass-cockpitNav displayFMS
3rd generation
4th generation:FBW*Flight EnvelopeProtection
4th generationYears of operation
2nd generation:2nd jet generation
2nd generation
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
*100% of Airbus today production line from A318 to A380+ B777 and B787
What has aviation learned?• Automation has brought safety benefits & will continue,
• Sharing of information is vital,
• Keeping highest training standards is one of the keys.
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
High professional standards
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EBT, learning from positive, sharing experience
Air Transport: a dynamic complex system with huge variability
Need to maintain the highest professional standards
One example: evolution of pilot job
• Pilots are less & less exposed to manual flying conditions
• Evolution of pilots background
• Demand for new pilots
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
High professional standards
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Taking safety for granted
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developing safety awareness and sound SMS
Within a context of fast developing countries, buzz society, increasing liability stakes
Safe AircraftSafe Airline Operations
Safe Air Transport System
Growing fleet Variability of configurations
Ageing fleet
New business models Increased operational pressure Evolution of aviation professionals
Variety of aviation background
Evolution of ATM New operations (e.g. RNP)
Evolution of regulation
Increased financial pressure
Increased operational pressure & congestion in some areas
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Ways forward
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MAJOR RISKS• Loosing sight of key assets: high professional
standards• Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES• The holistic nature of air transport• The variability of operational contexts• The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and
its uncertainty
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The holistic nature of Air Transport System
A number of safety initiatives have been launched over the years by the individual actors of the air transport system, eg• Flight Envelope Protection• Terrain Avoidance Warning• Runway Overrun Protection• Short Term Conflict Alert• ….
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Need for more combined approaches at ATS level
• RNP deployment program• Regional Aviation Groups• …
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Ways forward
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MAJOR RISKS• Loosing sight of key assets: high professional
standards• Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES• The holistic nature of air transport• The variability of operational contexts• The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and
its uncertainty
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The variability of operational contexts
In many cases ways forward to enhance safety are known,but not implemented, eg• Offer alternatives to circling approach• Runway design: grooving, safe overrun,• Ensure basics are known and understood• Ensure implementation of robust Flight Data Monitoring• Promote the sharing of information• …
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Need for ad hoc approaches
• Capability to focus on the right things to do first
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Ways forward
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MAJOR RISKS• Loosing sight of key assets: high professional
standards• Taking safety for granted
CHALLENGES• The holistic nature of air transport• The variability of operational contexts• The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and
its uncertainty
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The dynamic nature of the Air Transport System… and its uncertainty
Probabilistic approaches allow for anticipating a number of scenarios. Yet, there will always be unprecedented and unanticipated situations…
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From a priori responses…to resilience
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
What’s next
Continue to enhance Safety TOGETHER for more anticipation
SMS, Safety Culture, Safety Strategy
Risk Management
« Big data » - identification of trends
−At individual organisation level
−At a wider scale
Continuous implementation of known Lessons Learnt
Further improving the sharing of Safety information
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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.
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Thank you