Avenir Capital Value Fund

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© Avenir Capital Pty Ltd ACN 150 790 355 AFSL 405469 Private Equity Value Investing in Public Markets Investment Presentation

Transcript of Avenir Capital Value Fund

Page 1: Avenir Capital Value Fund

© Avenir Capital Pty Ltd ACN 150 790 355 AFSL 405469

Private Equity Value Investing in Public Markets

Investment Presentation

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Avenir Capital Overview

Avenir specialises in fundamental, value-based and special-situation investments in global equity markets

Avenir is focused on generating strong absolute returns for our investors

Avenir is confident of achieving this outcome given its key attributes: a portfolio manager with 20 years of investment experience; a tested approach combining the best elements of private equity and public market

investing; a disciplined process identifying and exploiting market inefficiency; a high conviction, research driven approach emphasising capital preservation;

Avenir’s interests are aligned with investors in the Fund by: the CIO making a substantial personal investment in the Fund; a unique fee structure with zero fixed annual management fee

Private Equity Value Investing in Public Markets

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Founder and Chief Investment Officer

Relevant experience Deep track record - 20 years of successful investing in Australian and overseas markets Experienced in fiduciary responsibilities of managing third party money Extensive high level board experience and operating as an ‘owner’ of diverse businesses Detailed investment due diligence encompassing business, industry, management and capital structure

Organisations before Avenir Capital Managing Director/co-owner of Catalyst Investment Managers, a private equity firm with over $900

million in FUM Managing Director at CVC Asia Pacific one of the leading private equity groups in Asia with US$4 billion

under management Pacific Equity Partners, the largest Australian based private equity firm AEA Investors Inc, one of the longest standing private equity firms in the United States Management consultant at Bain & Company in Australia, the U.S. and Asia

Education MBA - Harvard Business School Bachelor of Commerce (1st Class Hons) - University of New South Wales.

Adrian Warner – Chief Investment Officer

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Investment Philosophy

Absolute return focus – focus on generating superior long term absolute returns by avoiding short term benchmark chasing behaviour; to beat the market you must do something different

Bottom up investing – invest in compelling stock specific opportunities identified via detailed independent research and due diligence; focus on materially mispriced assets

Risk management – no leverage; investments driven by in-depth research; buy with large margin of safety; think about the downside first; CIO has significant investment in fund

Global opportunities – source the most compelling ideas with asymmetric risk/reward characteristics from a wide global pool; large international network for idea generation

Time arbitrage – benefit from investing in materially mispriced securities that increasingly short-term investors avoid

Selectivity and patience – only invest in mispriced securities; only invest when the odds are in our favour; otherwise hold cash to provide firepower

Aligned interests – the CIO has a significant investment in the Fund; zero fixed management fee and performance fee only when a hurdle reached

Our Sustainable Advantage

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Combining private equity and public market investing

The Avenir Capital Model

Private Equity Public Market Greater opportunity set

Liquidity

Deep discounts to intrinsic value

Lower transaction costs

Focus on investment analysis not ‘deal process’

Conviction investing

Concentrated portfolio

Longer term investment horizon

In depth due diligence

Focus on low risk investing

Avenir Capital

Focus on fundamentals

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3 Underlying Pillars

Worry About Downside First

• Focus on minimising risk of permanent loss of capital

• What is probability of loss; how much can we lose?

• Don’t view volatility as risk

• Worry more about what we can lose than what we might make

• Margin of safety – Always!

Focus on Absolute Returns

• Longer term absolute return focus not short term relative returns

• Avoid closet indexing

• Avoid asset gathering behaviour

• Patient investing to benefit from ‘time arbitrage’

• Not afraid to invest in ‘unloved’ companies

Bottom Up not Top Down

• Fundamental analysis

• Company specific investment decisions

• Don’t try to guess short term market direction

• Look for materially mispriced assets

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Benefits of Allocation to Avenir Capital Exposure to differentiated investment opportunities and risk management philosophy

test

• Focused international exposure

• Access ‘unloved’ part of market

• Ex ‘mainstream’ stocks

• Exposure to special situations

• Experienced high conviction investment manager

• Provides exposure to different risk management philosophy

• Minimise risk of permanent capital loss rather than risk of deviation from benchmark or annual volatility

• Margin of safety investing

• Avoid opportunity cost of market moving ‘sideways’ for prolonged period

• Benefit from active stock selection

• Reduced market correlation

• Avenir targets above market rates of return

• Focus on absolute returns not benchmark relative returns

• Patient disciplined investing in only low risk, high return opportunities Broaden

Investment Exposure

Above Market Returns

Risk Management

Avoid cost of ‘Sideways’

Market

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Performance (inception to December 2013) Avenir Value Fund (net of fees and expenses)

Investment Results as at 31 December 2013 (net of fees and expenses)Annualised Return Cumulative Return(since inception*) (since inception*)

Avenir Value Fund + 2.2% + 11.4% + 19.8% + 43.2% + 20.3% + 56.5%MSCI All Country Accumulation + 1.8% + 7.3% + 16.4% + 24.2% + 11.7% + 30.8%All Ords Accumulation + 0.9% + 3.4% + 14.5% + 19.6% + 11.8% + 30.9%* inception 1 August 2011

1 month 3 months 6 months 2013 YTD

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Investment Example: UXC

UXC is an IT services provider that lost its way and inflicted material losses on its shareholders through ill-conceived capital allocation and diversification

We saw an underperforming business with net cash on the balance sheet excess head office cost that could be removed clear catalysts in the form of a new CEO, renewed focus on

exiting non-core businesses and improving core operational metrics

Scope for operational improvement: UXC was earning 6% EBITDA margins vis a vis peers at 15-17% EBITDA margins

We established a position at $0.52 representing <4x EBIT and a >50% discount to intrinsic value

Investment Thesis

Non-core businesses sold and company now focusing on core IT business

Sold for $1.21 plus $0.06 dividends (IRR 126%)

Outcome

Buy

Sold

Source: Bloomberg

A$

UXC Limited (UXC AU)

UXC IT Continuing operations 2011A 2012FRevenue 522.0 535.05Revenue growth % 2.5%EBITDA 33.0 34.8EBITDA margin % 6.3% 6.5%D&A -6.2 -6.2EBIT 26.8 28.6Net Interest -1.0Pre-tax profit 27.6Tax -8.3Net profit 19.3

# shares o/s 305.8Share price 0.50

Implied Valuation 2012F Net (debt)/cash fore 2012FEquity value 152.9 Net (debt) at start of (27.2)Net (debt)/cash 41.3 Sale of FSG 56.0EV 111.6 Tax on sale of FSG (3.5)

FCF (pre dividends) 16.0EBITDA 34.8 Net (debt)/cash end 41.3EBIT 28.6EBITDA multiple 3.2EBIT multiple 3.9

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Investment Example: Oaks Hotels and Resorts

The company found itself amidst great noise and confusion as the Founder/CEO’s personal 35% stake was placed into receivership and he was removed from board

The ex-CEO subsequently sought to overturn the board and instate his own nominees

A mysterious Chinese investor appeared as a material holder on the register and gained a board seat

Amidst the chaotic activity and negative press, the market lost sight of the fact that the business owned stable, long term and separable assets and was generating record revenue/earnings

We acquired shares at an average of $0.26 per share (less than 60% of NAV and 4x FCF) with our estimated intrinsic value being $0.60-0.70 per share

An overseas listed leisure and hospitality operator launched an initial $0.32 per share hostile bid during the confusion

We expressed our view of value to the board and ultimately sold into the revised offer of $.52 per share (IRR 462%)

While our view of intrinsic value was significantly higher than $.52 per share we did not have the financial firepower to join the battle so grudgingly accepted the revised offer

Outcome

Investment Thesis

Buy

Sell

Source: Bloomberg

A$

Oaks Hotels and Resorts (OAK AU)

NET ASSET VALUE CASH FLOW MULTIPLE 2010 2011(1)

30 June 10 Net asset value 70.8 'Core' EBITDA 25.8 30.0Plus: October placement 6.5 Capex/Depreciation 5.2 5.230 Oct 10 Adj NAV 77.3 'Core' EBITA 20.6 24.8

Less# shares 173.8 Cash finance costs 8.8 8.8NAV per share 0.44 Tax 4.0 4.0Average entry share price 0.26 Free cash flow 7.8 12.0Discount to NAV 42%

Current share price 0.26 0.26# shares 173.8 173.8Equity value 45.2 45.2Equity / FCF 5.8 3.8FCF yield (%) 17% 27%(1) Based on mgmt guidance of $30-32m.

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Investment Example: Collins Foods CKF was a busted IPO in which a private equity seller exited 100% of

their position and management downgraded the prospectus forecast shortly after the IPO

The market reacted savagely and the stock fell from $2.50 to $1.00

We, however, saw a relatively stable and well run business with well aligned management the CEO owned 7% of the equity and had not sold in the IPO

We established a position at $1.11 representing <5.5x EBIT and FCF and a 40-50% discount to intrinsic value

Investment Thesis

Shortly after our purchase the company paid a 6.5c dividend Current value ~$1.80 plus $0.115 dividend (IRR 66%)

Outcome

Buy

Current value

Source: Bloomberg

A$

Collins Foods (CKF AU)

6.5c div

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No fixed management fee; Performance fee only on return above threshold

Key Fund Terms

Fund Avenir Value Fund

Fund Objective To achieve superior absolute returns over the medium to long term with an emphasis on capital preservation

Investment Type Long/Short International equities; No leverage employed(1)

Investor Eligibility Wholesale clients

Investment Horizon 3 - 5 years

Reporting Quarterly investor letter

Applications/Redemptions Monthly / Quarterly

Management Fee 0% p.a.

Performance Fee 25% p.a. (+GST) of returns in a performance fee period once the Fund exceeds the higher of the previous HWM and the hurdle rate

Hurdle Rate 6% p.a.

[1] The Fund does employ select short positions.

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Institutional Infrastructure

Trustee Investment Manager

Avenir Value Fund

Prime Broker Administrator Risk

Management/Portfolio Monitoring

Auditor

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Why invest with Avenir?

Summary

Experienced successful management team Deep track record - 20 years of successful investing in Australian and overseas markets for leading companies Extensive investigative due diligence experience encompassing business, industry, management, capital structure

and financial valuation analysis Extensive high level board experience; operating as an ‘owner’ in diverse businesses and industries Leveraging a broad base of industry knowledge and large international network

Effective and differentiated investment strategy Invest in compelling research driven, value-based and special-situation ideas sourced globally Focus on long-term absolute returns not short-term benchmark chasing Benefit from time arbitrage in an increasingly short-term focused market Invest only when we find extremely mispriced securities which we can buy with limited risk of permanent loss of

capital (patience and selectivity)

Disciplined risk management Worry more about what we might lose than what we might make in any investment Invest only when a material margin of safety is available (otherwise hold cash) Define risk as the likelihood of permanent loss of capital not volatility or deviation from a benchmark Manager/CIO interests aligned through a significant investment in the Fund Manager/CIO interests aligned via a unique performance fee only structure (zero fixed annual management fee)

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Appendix:

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Strategy Consistent with Private Equity Heritage

•Concentrated portfolio investing in only the best opportunities • Intense focus on downside risk minimisation • Simple businesses: Avoid single product, technology or resource risk •Medium/long term investment horizon • Patience, patience, patience

Investment Framework/

Risk Management

• Extensive investigative due diligence and financial analysis experience •Deep experience in assessing competitive position, industry structure and

management team •Operational experience in assessing strategy viability, timeframes and

operational capability • Extensive experience in assessing capital structure, financial viability and bank

pressure points

Due Diligence

Margin of Safety Low Risk, High Uncertainty Investing Event Driven/Special Situation Opportunities

Key Elements Added

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Principal: Private Equity Returns

(1) Includes co-investments (2) Before expenses, fees and carried interest

Transaction Investment(1) IRR Money Multiple

Return Measurement(2)

Exit Value

NOTE: The results above are the work of teams of professionals and no single individual was solely responsible for any investment.

($m)Waters 40 309 225% 7.7x

Pacific Brands 236 1,216 129% 5.2x

Tech Pacific 138 506 122% 3.7x

Mettler Toledo 224 805 91% 3.6x

Vertex 15 51 100% 3.4x

Affinity Health 247 782 124% 3.2x

Frucor 50 155 57% 3.1x

Manchester Tank 28 86 55% 3.1x

Valley Longwall 88 8 n/a 0.1x

Total 1,066 3,918 n/a 3.7x

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The key insight is the search for irrational or forced sellers

Investment Idea Generation

Newspapers

WSJ, FT, AFR, SMH, etc

Magazines Barrons, Forbes, Fortune

Websites Value Investor Insight Tickerspy Motley Fools Marketwatch Seekingalpha Bloomberg CNBC, etc

Read widely with antenna tuned to market overreaction

Poorly covered or unloved stocks

Spin offs

Restructurings / Reorganisations

Companies or industries out of favour

Overleveraged situations

Post bankruptcy equities

Focus on Margin of safety and minimising downside risk

Investigate situations/ opportunities others avoid

52 week low lists

Company screens Low P/E Low price to book value High equity free cash flow

yield

Value investor forums Value Investors Club SumZero Gurufocus Valueforum

Value investing conferences Value investors congress

Hedge fund SEC filings and investor newsletters

Stay close to sources of value investing ideas

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Adrian Warner Principal

Chief Investment Officer

Biographies

Adrian Warner has over 20 years experience in Australian and overseas financial markets. Before establishing Avenir Capital, Adrian was Managing Director and part-owner of Catalyst Investment Managers, a mid-market private equity firm with over $900 million in FUM. Prior to that, Adrian was Managing Director at CVC Asia Pacific one of the leading private equity groups in Asia with US$4 billion under management and part of the CVC Capital partners Group. Prior to CVC, Adrian worked at Pacific Equity Partners, the largest Australian based private equity firm, and at AEA Investors Inc., one of the longest standing private equity firms in the Untied States. Previously, Adrian was a management consultant at Bain & Company in Australia, the U.S. and Asia. Adrian has a MBA from Harvard Business School and a Bachelor of Commerce (1st Class Hons) from UNSW.

Peter brings over 25 years of financial market experience to Avenir Capital. Peter’s primary role is risk management for the Avenir Value Fund. He is also responsible for operations and compliance for Avenir Capital. Peter is one of the two co-founders of Lanterne Asset Management where he has been the COO for 11 years. Prior to joining Lanterne, Peter was a Director of Credit Suisse First Boston Australian Equities. Peter previously held positions at Bain and Company in London and Sydney, and at Roach, Tilley, Grice & Co. in Sydney.

Nicole brings over 20 years of financial markets experience to Avenir Capital. Nicole’s primary responsibility is to lead Avenir Capital’s business development and distribution initiatives. Nicole previously worked as a Director at Merrill Lynch, most recently as Business Manager across the Asia Pacific Research Department and, prior to that, in a variety of research roles covering small cap stocks. Prior to Merrrill Lynch, Nicole worked at James Capel Australia in the research team.

Peter Cozens Chief Operating Officer

Nicole Swan Distribution

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Contacts

General Level 11, 2 Bulletin Place Sydney NSW 2000 Email: [email protected] Web: www.avenircapital.com.au

Avenir Capital Adrian Warner

CEO and Chief Investment Officer Phone: +61 2 8031 7742 Mobile: +61 413 151 925 Email: [email protected]

Peter Cozens Chief Operating Officer Phone: +61 2 8031 7702 Mobile: +61 412 222 928 Email: [email protected]

Nicole Swan Head of Distribution Phone: +61 2 8031 7742 Mobile: +61 415 585 866 Email: [email protected]

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Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared by Avenir Capital Pty Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). It is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or inducement to purchase or subscribe for any shares nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. It also does not constitute a recommendation regarding any shares.

Any decision to invest in the Funds must be made based on the disclosures, terms and conditions set out in the relevant offering documents and subscription application, all of which must be read in their entirety. The shares have not and will not be registered for sale, and there will be no public offering of the shares. No offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) will be made in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful.

The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given hereby as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. This presentation reflects the information available as of the date this presentation was prepared and is subject to change without notice to the recipient.

Past performance may not necessarily be repeated and is no guarantee or projection of future results.

This presentation is intended solely for the information of the person to whom it has been delivered. It is not an advertisement and is not intended for public use or distribution. No part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without prior written permission of Avenir Capital.

Customer information obtained in the normal course of business is strictly protected. Only when deemed appropriate and in the best interests of our customers, we may share it with a limited number of parties related to the Fund, including investment management companies, investment advisory companies, and trust banks. We can guarantee that under no other circumstances and with no other purpose shall the customer information be used and that the confidentiality of the information entrusted to us will never be compromised.