AVATAR Case Study - University Programs · AVATAR Case Study Research and Technology Transition ......

AVATAR Case Study

Research and Technology Transition Workshop

July 24-25, 2012

Agenda

• Introduction • Video • AVATAR Background • Example Study • Technology Transition Process • SENTRI/Trusted Traveler Field Test • Path to Transition / Discern Science

What is BORDERS?

• DHS Center of Excellence – Funded by S&T University Programs

• Awarded July 2008 • Supplemental funding for specific projects

– Consortium of 15 universities – Headquartered at University of Arizona – Leverages $250m in on-going research/facilities

• Mission – Conduct border security and immigration research – Educate the next generation of scientists and personnel – Transition prototypes and products to DHS customers

BORDERS Partners

DHS Stakeholders

Customs & Border Protection Immigration & Customs

Enforcement

Transportation Security Administration

Citizenship and Immigration Services

BORDERS Research Areas

• RA 1: Detection, Identification and Screening

• RA 2: Sensor Networks and

Communications • RA 3: Immigration Policy and

Enforcement

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About Me

• Second Year Doctoral Student – Technology Transfer, Commercialization – Entrepreneurship Ecosystems – Automated Credibility Assessment

• Academic History – BS in Systems Engineering & Entrepreneurship – MBA in Marketing and Finance

• Work History – Founder or 1st employee variety of startups – Founded technology trade association for Tucson – Current founder of Startup Tucson

Intro to the AVATAR

8

Research Goals

• Unobtrusive non-invasive credibility assessment – No sensors attached to the body – Real-time, remote analysis – Scalable and robust for high traffic – Useful across contexts – Useful across cultures

Research Questions

• What video, audio, and language-based features measure changes in behavior and reliably detect deception, impostership, and malicious intent?

• What psychophysiological measures are reliable indicators of deception?

– Heart rate - Pupil diameter

– Changes in Blood pressure - Gaze behavior

– Respiration - Thermal temperature

– Blink Rate - Galvanic skin response

• Which interviewing tools and techniques are most effective for identifying imposters, smugglers, terrorists, and other criminals?

Problem Complexity: There are Many Ways To Deceive

• Lies • Fabrications • Concealments • Omissions • Misdirection • Bluffs • Fakery • Mimicry • Tall tales • White lies

• Deflections • Evasions • Equivocation • Exaggerations • Camouflage • Strategic ambiguity • Hoaxes • Charades • Imposters

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Problem Complexity

• Rapid Screening – People usually make rapid decisions about

credibility (7-20 seconds) • Automated Interviews

– Force multiplier – Interview Control and Consistency

• Detecting which questions are most diagnostic – Question set changes for every context

Problem Complexity: Overconfidence and Underachievement

• Humans are poor lie-detectors – ~54% accuracy rate for general population – Accuracy is a function of the quality of base rates – Poor performance affects novices and professionals

• Confidence in judgment is not correlated with

accuracy – Affects attentiveness, verification efforts, and

misallocation of resources

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Interdisciplinary Research

AutomatedDeceptionDetection

Computer Science, Information

Systems

Communication, Linguistics, Speech

& Hearing

Psychology, Cognitive Science,

Nueroscience

Engineering (Electrical &

Systems)

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Research Approach - Multimethodological

Automated Human Screening: 30+ Years of Collaborative, Multi-disciplinary Research

Bioengineering Biometrics

Communication

Computer Science: Computer Vision,

Artificial Intelligence

Information Systems

Criminology

Linguistics Neuroscience

Oculometrics

Polygraph

Insider Threat

Psychology: Cognitive,

Experimental, Social, Organizational

Signal Processing

Virtual Interactions

Automated Virtual Agent for Truth Assessments in Real-Time (AVATAR)

• Avatar-based screening system – Rapid screening technology – Credibility assessment – Artificial intelligence – Stand-off sensor technologies

• Flag suspicious behavior for secondary screening • Can be customized for use with:

- Ports of Entry - airports - detention centers

- visa processing - asylum requests - personnel screening

LDV THERMAL BLINK CAMERA

PUPILLOMETRY EYE TRACKING VOCALIC ANALYSIS

COMPUTER VISION LINGUISTICS FORCE PLATFORM

Non-Invasive Tools for Rapid Screening

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Sensor Integration Platform

Sensor Research

AVATAR Kiosk - Generation 1

• Lab was transformed by packaging sensors into a kiosk


• First working prototype • Kiosk form factor • Embedded sensors • Ruggedized for commercial use


• Automated Kiosk • Interactive intelligent

agent • Embedded sensors • Avatar-based

interviewer • Expert system

• Biometric reader • Multilingual capacity

Sample Avatar Interviewers

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• Travelers packed a bag and were interviewed by an automated screening kiosk

• Half of participants also constructed and packed an explosive device:

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Example Experiments: Bomb Studies

Sample Results: Gaze Analysis

•Control •Average = 12.43% •SD = 6.46%

•Bomb •Average = 28.52% •SD = 13.67%

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Eye Gaze: Guilty

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Eye Gaze: Innocent

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The Voice of a Bomb Maker

“Has anyone given you a prohibited substance to transport through this checkpoint?”

BOMB MAKER INNOCENT

Bomb Makers had 25.34% greater variation in their vocal pitch when answer this question:

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Explaining the Variation in Pitch

•Intonation •Pitch contours reveal a steep pitch rise over time

•Increased pitch at the end of an utterance reflect uncertainty

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Bomb Maker Innocent

Pitc

h (H

z)

Time (s)

TECHNOLOGY TRANSITION EFFORTS

Technology Transition Philosophy

• Technology transition starts at the beginning • The Last Research Mile (Dr. Jay Nunamaker)

– Find a painful problem – Propose a new solution – Listen carefully to the reactions – Devise an approach to ease their pain – Design and build a prototype – Test in the lab – Test in the field

• This is an iterative process – Bring lessons learned back to lab to drive improvement

“Last Mile” Research Road Map

• Proof-of-Concept prototype (POC) • Proof-of-Value (POV) • Proof of self-sustaining Use (POU)

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Real Problem POC POV

POU

SENTRI - Trusted Traveler Pilot Test

• Expedited processing for pre-approved, low-risk travelers entering U.S. – on-line application – background check – Personal interview consists of 20 standard questions

Trusted Traveler Pilot Test DeConcini Port of Entry, Nogales AZ

• Dec. 9, 2011 : 8- week field trial of AVATAR for SENTRI Program – Tucson Field Office provided space at SENTRI Enrollment Center in

Nogales – Work and meeting space provided by UA Santa Cruz County

• Personal interview is time-consuming for officers – Takes time away from higher-level tasks – Most applicants are low risk – SENTRI applications are expected to increase – Hiring levels expected to remain stable

• AVATAR acts as force multiplier to conduct interviews and segment risk

– 1 officer can monitor 4-8 AVATAR kiosk and receive real-time feedback

– Confirm the “good people” and move them through quickly – All others sent to officer for secondary screening

Trusted Traveler Pilot Test DeConcini Port of Entry, Nogales AZ

• Pilot Phase 1 (Dec 2011 – Jan 2012) – Conducted 175 interviews

(English only) – Demos: Comm. Bersin and

Aguilar, Pres. Luc Portelance (CBSA)

• Lessons learned: – Rewrite English script – Translate Spanish – Recognize when a person

speaks over AVATAR – Establish a training program

• Pilot Phase 2: July 2012 – Incorporate researcher and

CBP feedback – 1000 Interviews

Commission Bersin

Future Directions

• Examine and improve resilience to countermeasures – Mental and Physical countermeasure detection

• Non-contact measurement of Electrodermal Activity – Partnering with Night Vision Lab

• Expanded SENTRI role and additional applications – Lowering Language Level – Reciprocal Avatar Behavior / Interactive Dialog – Separating Avatar and Human voice

Potential Future Applications

• All Trusted Traveler Programs

• I-94 visas • TSA domestic travel • Apprehension

interviews • Periodic investigations • New hires

– Customize kiosks for these applications

Path to Transition

• Patent process started for AVATAR technologies • Vocalics, Linguistics, Kinesics, Ocular, etc.

• Responding to SBIRs and seeking venture capital

• Started new company: Discern Science Corp. • The science of the ability to judge well

Discern Science • Discern Science was

founded in 2011 – The products being

developed for commercial sale were sponsored by DHS and DoD

• Discern Science is the science of judging well

August 2, 2012 46

Commercialization Efforts

• 2011 • Invention disclosure filed with University • Provisional patent filed with USPTO • Discern Science Corporation formed • License option with University negotiated

• 2012 • SBIR application filed ($250K - $1M)

• “Standoff Counter Human Deception Detection Device” - SBIR A12-060

• Arizona Innovation Challenge ($250) • NSF I-Corps Program ($50K)

Pain • Trusted Traveler-

Domestic – exploding demands

beginning soon • Screening Personnel

– CBP, $250K per year – DoD, $1M per year AVATAR Kiosk Costs $100K in 1st year, $30K each subsequent year

August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 48

Staffing

Work load for the AVATAR

Border Patrol Workload

2012 2022 Th

ousa

nds

Value Proposition • Rapid return on

investment – 100% - 500% ROI on large

scale implementation (20 units or more)

• Improved security and improved utilization of human capital


“The AVATAR (kiosk) received very positive comments during one of Ex-Commissioner’s (Alan) Bersin’s visit to the Nogales enrollment center on December 13, 2011. The pilot is ongoing and … preliminary indications are that there is a potential to use this technology to assist CBP in improving manpower utilization to balance the security and facilitation elements of our mission.” -- Armando Goncalvez, Program Manager – Trade, Tucson Field Office, U.S. Customs and Border Protection

Customer Value


5 CBP Officers cost $1.125 mil Efficiency: 1 Customers to 1 Officer

1 CBP Officer and 6 AVATAR kiosks cost $1.15 mil Yr 1 $400K After Yr 1 Efficiency: 5 Customers to 1 Officer

Year 1 ROI 9% Year 2 ROI 213%

Market (First Five Years)


U.S. Customs and Border Protection $115 million (sales) $34 million (services)

Department of Defense $500 million (sales) $150 million (services)

Transportation Security Administration $60 million (sales) $17 million (services)

$675 Million in Estimate Total Product Sales Revenue $201 Million in Reoccurring Annual Service Revenue

Competitive Advantage • No direct competitor exists for the

AVATAR • Some of the features exist in

separate products – Basic ATM like kiosks exists to

collect information – Current Credibility Assessment

technology require attaching to contact and most rely on a single sensor

• No competitor has scientific validity behind its product – Product requires more than

engineering – Relies on behavioral sciences

• Patents and exclusive licensing of all technology integrated into an AVATAR kiosk


Go to Market Strategy (First 18 Months)

Complete CBP SENTRI Program Field

Trial

Develop Commercial Product with AIC Funding

Receive Order from CBP for Five Units for

SENTRI Program

Obtain Additional

Funding for 2013

Operating Expenses

(Est. $600k)

Expand SENTRI Program

Product Sales and Enter

CBP NEXUS Program

(25 units sold)


Corporate Development


Assumptions and Risks


Critical Assumptions Negative Impacts Mitigation

Target Customers adopt Technology at Rated

Predicted

Slow product adoption slows revenue acquisition

Completing 2nd Field Trial of technology now, working to

ensure product adoption

AVATAR technology development continue as

projected

Delays in technology development could delay initial sale, increase cost,

and future revenue

Extensive on-going prototype development resulting in a

well scoped commercial development project

Funding needs in year 2 are met

Without additional funding in year 2 product development

and sales will slow

Factoring of purchase orders to fund year 2

development

Continued R&D and related funding through Univ. of

Arizona

Future products could be delayed if funding for basic

research at UA were reduced

Develop research tools and talents within Discern to

perform product development research in house

Questions

SUPPORTING SLIDES


Cues & Sensors for Deception Detection

August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary 58

Recommendation

Proof-of-Concept Prototype

• Find out if the proposed solution works • Discover any limitations of the system

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Proof-of-Value

• Sufficient robustness and functionality to solve ONE important, painful problem

• Take it into the field and shepherd the users – MEASURE whether they are more productive

with the system than without

• Write down every compliment, and complaint verbatim – Add dates, names, and contact info (if possible)

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Academic Payoff from Proof-of-Use

• Deep understanding of technical, operational, and economic aspects of the problem domain

• Your nuggets will unify into a sophisticated understanding of the domain

• You can now create value intentionally • You can now find nuggets intentionally • Provide improved products to users in the

field, and leave them behind

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