Availability and characteristics of the future UK biomass resource

Dr Patricia Thornley & Mr Andrew Welfle,SUPERGEN Bioenergy Hub,University of Manchester

1. Background to the SUPERGEN Bioenergy Hub2. Context for future UK biomass resource 3. Specifics of future UK biomass resource

Presentation overview

Hub Objectives– Act as a focal point for sharing and dissemination of

scientific knowledge and engineering understanding to facilitate near-term deployment of technologies

– Investigate and develop new approaches for dealing with the very significant engineering challenges associated with deployment of more novel technologies

– Improve scientific understanding of the fundamental aspects of different forms of biomass and its conversion

– Take a whole-systems perspective to comprehensively evaluate the potential of future technology options

– Adopt an interdisciplinary approach to look beyond the engineering and technical aspects of bioenergy and ensure adequate consideration of the impacts on ecosystems, social responses to technology deployment and the economic context of policy development

Tyndall Manchester Aston University University of Bath Leeds University Newcastle University Rothamsted Research

Drax Progressive Energy

Renewable Energy AssociationNorth Energy Associates

Sustainable Energy LtdRenewable Energy Systems

GreenacresBiomass Energy Centre

Danish Tecnologik InstituitDalkia

SUPERGEN Bioenergy Hub

ProjectsInitial projects

1. Emissions from solid biomass2. Impact of feedstock parameters on

airborne emissions3. Evaluation of substitute natural gas4. Streamlining the supply chain5. Carbon uncertainties in the supply chain6. Gasification integration7. Torrefaction integrated assessment8. Carbon capture & storage enabling

technologies9. Bio-oil upgrading10. Whole systems analysis of novel biofuel

technologies

Later work1. Public perceptions2. Biochar3. Biomass for carbon/materials4. Micro algae5. Sustainability of imports6. Food-fuel conflict7. Gasification demo plantetc.

2. Context for future UK biomass resource

(1)DECC, 2009, ‘Biomass Supply Curves for the UK’, www.decc.gov.uk/publications/

(2) Thornley et al., “Sustainability constraints on UK bioenergy development”, Energy Policy, 2009

The biomass resource from UK feedstocks could reach around 10% of current UK primary energy demand by 2030, at a cost of less than £5/GJ 1

Plus a large global woody biomass element Supergen Bioenergy research shows that the

sustainable level of UK biomass resource is lower than this: 4.9% of total energy demand (4.3% of heat demands, 4.3% of electricity, and 5.8% of transport fuel). 2

Plus a large global woody biomass element

Availability and characteristics of future UK biomass resource

Making efficient use of available waste often maximizes sustainability benefits, particularly greenhouse gas balances

Future feedstocks (1)

Greenhouse gas savingsGHG emissions (kg CO2e/MWh)

Savings compared to UK grid

Savings compared to CCGT plant

Savings compared to EU fossil fuel mix

Forest residues

58 90% 86% 92%

Recycled wood

-740 226% 280% 204%

Eucalyptus 149 75% 64% 79%

Thornley et al., “Assessing the sustainability of bioelectricity supply chains”, BIOTEN conference, Birmingham

Feedstock characteristics significantly impact on plant performance

Uniform feedstocks are particularly attractive Technologies that are “omnivorous”/feedstock

flexible are key to unlocking significant resources

Future feedstocks (2)

Thornley, P., “Biofuels Review”, Report for Government Office for Science, prepared as part of the Foresight Programme, June 2012

Second generation technologies help address many sustainability issues because of their “whole-chain” (not their thermodynamic!) efficiency

Future feedstocks (3)

Greenhouse gas savings are not dependent on efficiency

Thornley et al., “Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options”, Energy Policy 37 (2009), 890-903

Importance of advanced technologies

First generation

Second generation

Final fuel product

Conversion product

Convertible portion of biomass

BiomassLand area

Thornley, P., “Biofuels Review”, Report for Government Office for Science, prepared as part of the Foresight Programme, June 2012

3. Specifics of future UK biomass resource

Modelling Approach

Stage One – Assessment of the UK Land Area Available for Biomass Resource Growth

Stage Two – Biomass Planting Scenarios & Quantifying the Indigenous Biomass Resource

Stage Three – The Bioenergy Resource Demand: Balancing Indigenous Potential vs. Imports

Developing Resource Forecast Scenarios

Food Focus Prime aim of enhancing

food security and increasing self

sufficiency.

- Increased crop yield productivity rates.- Decreased food waste rates.- Balanced waste management forecast.- Reduced land for bioenergy crop growth.

Economic Focus

Emphasis placed on economic development

over other considerations.

- Increased rate of built-up area expansion.- Increased food & forest/wood product exports.- Focus on forestry expansion/productivity- Increased utilisation of forestry residues.

Energy Focus

Focus on enhancing and expanding the bioenergy

sector.

- Increased focus on forestry expansion/productivity-High utilisation of biomass wastes and residues.-Waste management focusing on energy recovery.-Increased land availability for bioenergy crops.

Conservative Focus

Future pathway with increased emphasis on

conservation and resource protection.

- Reduced expansion of built-up land area.- High focus on forestry expansion & preservation.-Reduced rates of waste generation- Waste management focusing on resource recovery.

Potential Resource Availability within each Scenario

Base 2015 2020 2030 20500

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Energy Focus Scenario

Tonn

es R

esou

rce

('000

ODT

eq

v.)

Base 2015 2020 2030 20500

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Economic Focus Scenario

Tonn

es R

esou

rce

('000

ODT

eq

v.)

Base 2015 2020 2030 20500

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Conservation Focus Scenario

Tonn

es R

esou

rce

('000

ODT

eq

v.)

Base 2015 2020 2030 20500

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Food Focus Scenario

Tonn

es R

esou

rce

('000

ODT

eq

v.)

Grown Biomass Resource

Energy Crops, Forestry Product, SRF, SRC etc

Residue Biomass Resource

Agricultural, forestry, industry etc

Waste Biomass Resource

MSW, Sewage/Sludges, Industry etc

Conclusions– Waste resources will be even more significant in future– Integration of bioenergy with the global food system is

important– Imports are essential for UK targets and flexible

technologies are needed to be resilient to their characteristics

– Second generation technologies improve many “sustainability” issues because of their higher efficienty potential

– The interfaces between the food system, land system, energy system and biomaterials demands must be taken into account in bioenergy resource assessments

Availability and characteristics of the future UK biomass resource

Dr Patricia Thornley & Mr Andrew Welfle,SUPERGEN Bioenergy Hub,University of Manchester