Automotive Fuel Markets in Eastern/Central Europe & · PDF filePresented at UN/EPA Partnership...

Presented at UN/EPA Partnership on Cleaner Fuels & Vehicles, November 14, 2002 by the International Fuel Quality Center - www.ifqc.org

Automotive Fuel Markets inEastern/Central Europe &Former Soviet Union (FSU)

Automotive Fuel Markets inEastern/Central Europe &Former Soviet Union (FSU)

Presented by Tammy W. Klein,Director, Americas and Global Environmental Policy

International Fuel Quality CenterHart Downstream Energy Services

email:[email protected]


Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

q Regional Overview

q FSU Crude Capacity

q Fuel (gasoline, jet, distillate) Production

q Fuel Consumption

q What’s Driving Automotive Fuel Specifications?

q European Enlargement & Fuel Quality

q European Gasoline & Diesel Specifications

q Lead Phase Out Progress

q Conclusionsq Appendix: Sulfur Specifications


Eastern/Central Europe & FSU RegionEastern/Central Europe & FSU Region

q Central Region: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia,Hungary

q Baltic Region: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia

q Adriatic Region: Slovenia, Croatia, Yugoslavia (Serbia),Bosnia, FYR Macedonia, Albania

q Southeast Region: Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Cyprus

q Former Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldavia,Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan


Eastern/Central Europe & FSU Crude CapacityEastern/Central Europe & FSU Crude Capacity

World Crude Refining Capacity

17%

14%

25%

31%

10%

2%

1%

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

North America

Asia

Latin America

Africa

Australia


Fuel Production in Eastern/Central EuropeFuel Production in Eastern/Central EuropeFuel Production in Eastern/Central Europe

Source: EIA, 2000 data Distillate includes on-road diesel and fuel oil

Poland

Czech

Rep

.Slo

vaki

aHungar

yLith

uania

Latvi

aEst

oniaSlo

venia

Croat

iaYugosl

avia

Bosnia

FYR Mac

edonia

Alban

iaRom

ania

Bulgar

iaTurk

eyCyp

rus

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

GasolineJet FuelDistillate

BPD


Fuel Production in Former Soviet UnionFuel Production in Former Soviet UnionFuel Production in Former Soviet Union

Source: EIA, 2000 data Distillate includes on-road diesel and fuel oil

Russia

Ukrai

ne

Belar

us

Mold

avia

Azerb

aija

n

Georg

ia

Armen

ia

Kazak

hstan

Kyrgyz

stan

Turkm

enis

tan

Tajik

ista

n

Uzbek

ista

n

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

GasolineJet Distillate

BPD


Fuel Consumption in Eastern/Central EuropeFuel Consumption in Eastern/Central EuropeFuel Consumption in Eastern/Central Europe

Source: EIA, 2000 data

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Poland

Czech

Rep

.

Slova

kia

Hungary

Lithuan

ia

Latvi

a

Estonia

Slove

nia

Croat

ia

Yugoslav

ia

Bosnia

Mac

edonia

Alban

ia

Roman

ia

Bulgar

ia

Turkey

Cypru

s

Distillate

Jet

Gasoline

Distillate includes on-road diesel and fuel oil


Fuel Consumption in Former Soviet UnionFuel Consumption in Former Soviet UnionFuel Consumption in Former Soviet Union

Source: EIA, 2000 data

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Russia

Ukrai

ne

Belar

us

Mold

avia

Azerb

aija

n

Georg

ia

Armen

ia

Kazak

hstan

Kyrgyz

stan

Turkm

enis

tan

Tajik

ista

n

Uzbek

ista

n

DistillateJetGasoline

Distillate includes on-road diesel and fuel oil


What’s Driving Automotive Fuel Specifications?What’s Driving Automotive Fuel Specifications?What’s Driving Automotive Fuel Specifications?

Australia

China

Brazil

USA

Argentina

Middle East

India

South Africa

Fuel specifications

Fuel specifications•

Lead§Sulfur§

Benzene§Aromatics

§Distillation

§Octane/Cetane

§Additives

§Oxygenates

Engine technologiesEngine technologies• Direct Injection• Hybrids• Fuel cells

Alternative fuels

Alternative fuels• Bio-fuels• LPG• CNG• Gas to Liquid

• H2

EnvironmentEnvironment• Global• Country• Regional• Local

Public PolicyPublic Policy

Refining IndustryRefining Industry& technology& technology

EconomyEconomy


European Enlargement & Fuel QualityEuropean Enlargement & Fuel QualityEuropean Enlargement & Fuel Quality

1996“Euro 2”

2000“Euro 3”

2005“Euro 4”

200810 ppm2003

Latvia - CEN 1993 (CEN 1999 by 1/1/04)Lithuania - CEN 1993 (CEN 1999 by 1/1/03)Estonia - CEN 1993 (CEN 1999 by 1/1/04)Bulgaria - CEN 1993, CEN 1999Romania – CEN 1993, CEN 1999Malta – Dir. 98/70 Transition periodTurkey CEN 1993 (CEN 1999 by 1/1/05)

Slovenia - Dir.98/70 2000Slovakia - Dir.98/70 2000Czech Rep - Dir. 98/70 2000Hungary - Dir. 98/70 2000Poland – Dir. 98/70 (1/1/03)Cyprus – Dir. 98/70 (1/1/03?)

Source: IFQC’s A Summary of Worldwide Automotive Fuels Specifications, January 2002


European Gasoline & Diesel SpecificationsEuropean Gasoline & Diesel SpecificationsEuropean Gasoline & Diesel Specifications

Gasoline

EN 228:1993

Euro II

Dir 98/70 – 2000EN 228: 1999

Euro III

Dir. 98/702005

Euro IV

Dir. 98/702009

(EP/Council)

Aromatics, vol%, max - 42 35 (Review) *Olefins , vol%, max - 18 18 (Review) *Benzene, vol%, max 5.0 1.0 1.0 (Review) *Oxygen, wt%, max - 2.7 2.7 (Review) *Sulfur, ppm, max 500 150 50(10) 10RVP, kPa 35 - 100 60.0 /70.0 60.0/70.0 (Review) *Lead, g/l max 0.013 None None none

Diesel (*)

EN 590:1993

Dir 98/70 – 2000EN 590: 1999

Dir. 98/702005

Dir. 98/702009*

(EP/Council)Poly Aromatics, vol%, max N/A 11.0 11.0 (Review) *Sulfur, ppm, max 2,000 350 50/10 10Cetane number, min 49 51 51 (Review) *Density @ 15 oC , kg/m3 820 - 860 845 845 (Review) *Distillation, T95 oC, max 370 360 360 (Review) *

* Review clause: By end 2005 the European Commission will carry out a review of the parameters and alternativefuels and see if new specifications are necessary, the outcome of the various commitments with the auto-manufacturersto reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of new passenger cars, the effect of metallic additives on new pollutionabatement technologies. The Review will also confirm the diesel 10ppm introduction end date e.g. 2009 and will alignthe non-road diesel fuel quality with the on-road diesel fuel quality.


Eastern/Central European & FSU Fuel SpecsEastern/Central European & FSU Fuel Specs

POLAND

BELARUS

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

MOLDAVIA

ROMANIA

TURKEY

BULGARIA

CYPRUS

ALBANIAMACEDONIA

BOSNIA

CROATIA

SLOVENIA

YUGOSLAVIA

HUNGARY

CZECH REP. SLOVAKIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIAOther FSU Countries

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

AZERBAIJAN

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TADJIKISTAN

TUKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

Country following spec EN 228:1993 for gasoline and EN590:1993 for diesel

Country following spec EN 228:1999 for gasoline and EN 590:1999 for diesel

Country following Former Soviet Union specifications

Little to no data


Eastern/Central European & FSULead Phase-Out

Eastern/Central European & FSUEastern/Central European & FSULead Phase-OutLead Phase-Out

POLAND

BELARUS

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

MOLDAVIA

ROMANIA

TURKEY

BULGARIA

CYPRUS

ALBANIAMACEDONIA

BOSNIA

CROATIA

SLOVENIA

YUGOSLAVIA

HUNGARY

CZECH REP. SLOVAKIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIAOther FSU Countries

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

AZERBAIJAN

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TADJIKISTAN

TUKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

Country still using leaded gasoline

Country that completed lead phase out


Lead Phase-Out OverviewLead Phase-Out OverviewLead Phase-Out Overview

q Regional Framework: UN/ECE Pan-European LeadPhase-Out Strategy, adopted June 1998 promotes:q Phase out of leaded petrol/gasoline,

q By 1 January 2005 leaded petrol should no longer be marketed inEuropean Countries,

q Aim to have unleaded petrol market share of at least 80% by 1 January2002 at the latest,

q Limit for the lead content of 0.15 g/l max by January 2000 at the latest,

q Lead content of unleaded petrol shall not exceed 0.013 g/l.

q EU Framework: Directive 98/70/EC calls for lead ban.

q Accession country implementation mandatory.

q No derogation requests currently on the table.


Lead Phase-Out OverviewLead Phase-Out Overview

Regional Framework: UN/ECE Pan-European LeadPhase-Out Strategy and EU Accession Impact:

q 8 Eastern/Central European countries no longer using lead.

q First wave accession countries have completed lead phase-out. Cyprus and Poland lead phase out planned for 2003.Currently, no leaded fuels marketed in Poland.

q Second wave and third wave accession countries lead phaseout projected between 2003-2005.

q Turkey ready for a ban in 2005 in its bid for EU membership.

q Russia no longer produces leaded gasoline.

q Georgia lead phase out in place.


ConclusionsConclusions

q Positive Factors:q East and Central European Accession Countries moving towards

implementation of Directive 98/70/EC Fuel Quality Specificationsand CEN Standards by 2003-2005

q Tourism from West Europe pushes sulfur reduction in regionincluding FSU to meet automotive technology demands

q Negative Factors:q Russia and FSU countries implementation of better fuel quality slow

and in piecemeal fashion starting with lead ban. Low sulfuravailability only planned in tourism corridors.

q Russian high sulfur crude supplied to much of region

q Actual fuel quality evaluation lacking in entire region

q Monitoring and enforcement lacking in entire region


International Fuel Quality CenterInternational Fuel Quality Center

For more information please contact:

q Sandrine Dixson-Decleve, Director, Europe & Africa,[email protected]

q Vlad Curelea, Manager, Refining, Research & Development,[email protected]


Central/Eastern Europe & FSUGasoline Sulfur Specs


Region Country Sulfur level ppm

Unleaded Leaded

North Central

Poland 500 / 150 -

Czech Rep. 150 -

Slovakia 150 -

Hungary 150 / 50 -

Baltic

Lithuania 500 -

Latvia 500 -

Estonia 500 -


Central/Eastern Europe & FSUGasoline Sulfur Levels

Central/Eastern Europe & FSUGasoline Sulfur Levels

Adriatic

Slovenia 150 -

Croatia 1,000 1,000

Yugoslavia 150 1,000

Bosnia 150 1,000

Macedonia No data No data

Albania No data No data

Southeast

Romania 150 1,500

Bulgaria 500 / 150 No data

Turkey 500 1,000

Cyprus 500 1,000

Region Country Sulfur level ppm

Unleaded Leaded




FSU

Russia 500 1,000

Ukraine 500 1,000

Belarus 500 1,000

Moldavia 500 1,000

Azerbaijan 1,000 1,000

Georgia 1,000 1,000

Armenia 1,000 1,000

Kazakhstan 1,000 1,000

Kyrgyzstan 1,000 1,000

Turkmenistan 1,000 1,000

Tajikistan 1,000 1,000

Uzbekistan 1,000 1,000

Region Country Sulfur level, ppm

Unleaded Leaded


Central/Eastern Europe & FSUDiesel Sulfur & Cetane Specs


Region Country Cetane Sulfur, ppm

North Central

Poland 49 / 50 / 51 2,000 / 350 / 50

Czech Rep. 48 / 51 350

Slovakia 51 350

Hungary 51 350

Baltic

Lithuania 51 500

Latvia 51 500

Estonia 47 / 49 500

Adriatic

Slovenia 51 350

Croatia 51 350

Yugoslavia 45 5,000

Bosnia 51 350

Macedonia No data No data

Albania No data No data




SoutheastRomania 49 / 51 2,000 / 500 / 350

Bulgaria 51 500

Turkey 51 7,000

Cyprus 49 10,000

FSU

Russia 45 / 49 / 51 5,000 / 2,000 / 1,000 / 500 / 350

Ukraine 45 / 49 / 53 2,000 / 1,000 / 500 / 350

Belarus 45 / 49 / 53 2,000 / 1,000 / 500 / 350

Moldavia 45 5,000 / 2,000 / 500

Azerbaijan 45 5,000 / 2,000

Georgia 45 5,000 / 2,000

Armenia 45 5,000 / 2,000

Kazakhstan 45 5,000 / 2,000

Kyrgyzstan 45 5,000 / 2,000

Turkmenistan 45 5,000 / 2,000

Tajikistan 45 5,000 / 2,000

Uzbekistan 45 5,000 / 2,000

Region Country Cetane Sulfur ppm

Automotive Fuel Markets in Eastern/Central Europe & · PDF filePresented at UN/EPA Partnership...

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