Autocrats Untying Their Hands-Political Prosecution of...
Transcript of Autocrats Untying Their Hands-Political Prosecution of...
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
1
Autocrats Untying Their Hands: Political Prosecution of
Corruption in a Limited Autocracy
Jia Li, University of Chicago
Abstract
Autocrats have an incentive to purge rival elites in the course of anticorruption. But
can an autocrat purge his rivals by political prosecution in a limited autocracy where
power-sharing arrangements tie his hands? Empirical observation from China, an
institutionalized autocracy with a history of politicized anticorruption, sheds light on
this question. Xi Jinping’s anticorruption campaign provides network evidence that the
autocrat is untying his hands and purging rivals despite the constraints on his power.
Studying the network where purged elites are nodes and their colleague relations are ties,
this paper argues that the emphasis on political prosecution against an elite explains his
centrality in the purged network, which suggests that political prosecution drives the
campaign as much as cleansing graft does. The independent variable, emphasis on
political prosecution, is estimated by the ratio of intraparty duration to procuratorial
duration. Centrality, as the dependent variable, is constructed by PageRank algorithm.
The finding suggests that an autocrat in a limited autocracy is capable of reneging on
power sharing.
Keywords: limited autocracy; network analysis; corruption; China
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
2
Autocrats with hands tied: can they purge rivals by political prosecution?
Autocrats have an incentive to purge rival elites in the course of anticorruption. As a strategy
to enforce political order, they manipulate judicial processes and employ courts to monitor
regime elites (Magaloni, 2008b). Cleansing graft is a convenient excuse for purging rivals.
Autocrats use anticorruption agencies as political instruments to repress regime elites (Svensson,
2005). In autocracies, anticorruption is enforced in a highly selective way, based on political
considerations as well as economic graft (Manion, 1998). It is a politicized cause that serves to
consolidate autocrats’ power.
In limited autocracies, however, the power of autocrats is substantially constrained by
power-sharing arrangements. Autocrats rule on the consent of small-sized selectorate (Bueno de
Mesquita, et al., 2003). They have to credibly commit themselves to sharing power in institutions
with regime elites in order to build and secure the loyalty of their winning coalitions (Gandhi &
Przeworski, 2007; Magaloni, 2008a; Boix & Svolik, 2013). Institutionalization reduces the risk
of coup, but the rule of autocrats remains under threat of allies’ rebellion (Svolik, 2012). Regime
elites may challenge autocrats via power-sharing institutions. The power of autocrats in limited
autocracies is therefore constrained. It leads us to question to what extent those autocrats can
prioritize their personal agenda at the expense of regime elitesat large when they wield
autocratic power.
Can an autocrat, with his hands tied by power-sharing arrangements in a limited autocracy,
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
3
take advantage of anticorruption and massively purge his rivals? China is an example of
institutionalized durable autocracy. This paper provides evidence from Xi Jinping’s
anticorruption campaign that power-sharing arrangements can be fragile. This paper shows that
the network structure of purged elites is shaped by political prosecution as much as by the efforts
to cleanse graft. It means that the Chinese autocrat is untying his hands and breaking down the
established power-sharing deals.
China: anticorruption in a limited autocracy
The regime of the Communist Party of China (CCP1) provides an example of
institutionalized and durable autocracy. After Mao Zedong, the regime has developed a system
of reciprocal accountability: the Central Committee under the command of the Politburo, and the
Politburo in turn held accountable to the Central Committee (Shirk, 1993). Power sharing has
been effectively established in the post-Deng China. In the absence of a strongman,
arrangements that divide the party-state’s supreme power between standing members of the
Politburo emerge and consolidate. This institutional design of “collective leadership” (jiti
lingdao) is the key to China’s developmental miracle (Hu, 2014b). Some scholars go as far as
calling it a “collective presidency (jitizongtong zhi)” (Hu, 2012; 2014a). The party-state
delegates power to its bureaucrats in functional and local agencies who enforce policies made by
1 The party uses “CPC” as its official abbreviation, but “CCP” is more commonly used in the English-speaking world. This paper refers the party as “CCP”.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
4
the party center, and bureaucratic interests significantly dictate policy outcomes (Lieberthal &
Oksenberg, 1988). Moreover, conventions on power transition have emerged and functioned
effectively on recent occasions: from Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin and to Hu Jintao (Kou,
2010), and most lately to Xi Jinping. The durability of CCP regime is largely attributed to its
power-sharing institutions that alleviate the monitoring problems between autocrats and regime
elites (Svolik, 2012). This durability, however, comes with a cost. An autocrat selected by
institutionalized rules is fettered thereby, and so he can hardly overturn the regime’s fundamental
programs (Kou, 2006; 2010). His personal autocracy is vulnerable to potential challenges by
regime elites at large. Power-sharing arrangements tie his hands when he seeks to meet critical
challenges in governance – the “tough bones” (Chan, 2014) – and leave a legacy in CCP history
(Zhai, 2014).
Many China watchers expect Xi to try untying his hands and striking down his enemies in
an anticorruption campaign (Huang, 2014; Sternberg, 2014; Tiezz, 2014; Wang, 2014). This
means that he will effectively break down the power-sharing arrangements. Power sharing,
indeed, can be fragile. It frequently fails in the emergence of an established autocracy: if the
autocrat is able to repress regime elites in the course of his personalizing power, regime elites
may eventually lose their capacity of allies’ rebellion that keeps the autocrat in check (Svolik,
2012). In the case of China, a massive anticorruption campaign can evidence such a process. If
we observe a campaign that is structurally driven by political prosecution, we may infer that the
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
5
autocrat is pursuing his own agenda against the will of regime elites at large and thus power
sharing is falling apart.
China has a long record of politicized anticorruption. Cleansing graft is never the only
rationale behind (Wedeman, 2005). In part, China’s periodic and concerted anticorruption efforts
are by-products of its economic policies (Quade, 2007). The “higher” goals of CCP, including
state transformation in 1949-1953, regime consolidation in 1954-1966 and national
modernization since 1978, fuel its fight against corruption (Gong, 1994). Leaders in communist
regimes are well aware that corruption undermines the foundation of their regimes and
sometimes take proactive measures (Holmes, 1993). The regimes wage campaigns when they
expect to gain incremental legitimacy therefrom (Manion, 2004).
They do not, however, crack down corruption at all cost. In China, CCP omits high-level,
high-stakes corruption cases so as to prevent damage to the party’s image (Fabre, 2001).
Punishing senior officials results in a waste of the regime’s human capital investment on those
fallen cadres (Zhu, 2015). Besides, corruption enhances CCP’s control over its party apparatuses
because graft provides elites with economic compensation (Fan & Grossman, 2001).
Anticorruption is, therefore, a mere “symbolic” issue (Guo, 2014). When the regime does decide
to prosecute top leaders for corruption, it is often more about power struggle than cleansing graft
per se (Wedeman, 2012). In China, the issue of corruption has turned a weapon against political
enemies (Shirk, 1993). For example, Zhou Yongkang’s downfall is deemed as a result of his
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
6
conspiracy with Bo Xilai to challenge Xi’s position (Guo, 2014). In this paper, we go beyond
analyzing individual cases and look for evidence at the campaign’s structural level.
Argument: political prosecution and network centrality
The elites prosecuted in an anticorruption campaign can be analyzed in the purged network
where each purged elite is a node and their colleague relations are ties. Figure 1 is a sketch that
illustrates how such a network may be structured. Some nodes are obviously more central than
others in this illustrative network. A number of individual attributes of political elites may
account for the varying centrality. First, an elder elite is more likely to occupy a central network
position, as an elite with a longer career can form more colleague relations in the course. Second,
political mobility of an elite has an impact on his position. If an elite has served in many an
institution, he is more likely to be central in the network than someone else who builds the entire
career in one single place. Third, political seniority affects centrality. A higher-ranking elite has
formed colleague relations at various levels in the political hierarchy of the regime, and so he is
expected to occupy a central position.
The network we are interested in is not composed of all elites; rather, it is a purged network.
Some attributes specific to purged elites also explain their centrality. Centrality of an elite in the
purged network is about how many colleagues of his are prosecuted and therefore in the purged
network. Ties in this purged network are not colleague relations per se: colleague relations are
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
7
mere “trellis” that hold the actually meaningful interrelations between the purged elites.2 This
paper is to discover what these meaningful interrelations are.
Figure 1: Illustrative Network
The purged network is a subset of the entire elite network. It grows as the anticorruption
campaign unfolds, evidence of economic or political corruption emerges that links one elite to
others, and thus other elites are put under investigation as well. Structurally, an elite is central in
the purged network if his case leads anticorruption agencies to many of his colleagues. For
example, if an elite is involved in a large amount of graft in numerous cases, there is a good
chance that many of his colleagues collude with him. The more corrupt one elite is, the more
evidence of graft should emerge during his investigation, and so the more colleagues in collusion
with him will be further inspected. If the campaign aims only at cleansing graft, we should
interpret the ties in the purged network as the collusion of economic graft. The centrality of an
elite, therefore, is determined by the value of graft in his case.
2 They are “trellis” in a way similar to how Andrew Nathan (1973) theorizes the relationship between formal bureaucracies and factional ties in Chinese politics.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
8
Conversely, as this paper would argue, an elite may be central in the purged network
because his investigation emphasizes on political prosecution. If the autocrat deems an elite as a
potential threat and intends to unseat him, the autocrat will not prosecute the threatening
individual alone but also purge those who are close to him. Anticorruption agencies will find
evidence of a clique around the targeted elite. The emphasis on political prosecution against an
elite makes him the hub of a clique. If political prosecution structurally drives the anticorruption
campaign, the meaningful interrelations underlying the ties should be potential political alliance.
Centrality, in this case, is a product of the emphasis on political prosecution.
Figure 2: Causal Mechanism
Figure 2 presents the argument. The emphasis on political prosecution against an elite is the
independent variable that causally leads to his centrality in the purged network. Emphasis on
political prosecution is estimated by its relative duration, that is, the ratio of intraparty duration
to procuratorial duration. This paper uses PageRank to measure centrality.
Network: elites prosecuted for corruption in Xi’s early reign
PageRank score of a node
�
DV: Centrality of an elite in purged network
�measured by�
IV: Emphasis on political prosecution against an elite
Statistical correlation�
Causal mechanism�
Relative duration of political prosecution
�
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
9
Purged elites as nodes
This paper studies the network of CCP elites, at or above vice-provincial/ministerial/army
level,3 who are prosecuted for corruption during Xi Jinping’s early reign from November 2012
to March 2015. There are 104 elites in the sample, including 72 civilian cadres and 32 military
generals (see Appendix and Table 1). The unit of analysis is individual elite.
Table 1: Elites Prosecuted for Corruption in Xi Jinping’s Early Reign
Civilian Cadres Rank Level1 FS VS FP VP Total
Number of Elites 1 2 7 62 72 Military Generals
Rank Level2 VS FMR VMR FA VA Total Number of Elites 1 0 6 10 15 32
Note: Data for civilian cadres from CCDI website at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/, and for military generals from the
website of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at http://www.81.cn/.
1. Civilian rank levels: FS: full-state level; VS: vice-state level; FP: full-provincial level; VP: vice-provincial level.
2. Military rank levels: VS: vice-state level; FMR: full-military-regional level; VMR: vice-military-regional level;
FA: full-army level; VA: vice-army level. The vice-/full-military-regional levels are considered between the state
levels and the provincial levels.
The campaign during Xi’s early reign is impressive because of the number and seniority of
the “big tigers” it hunts down. For the first time in CCP history, a retired standing member of the
Politburo, Zhou Yongkang, is put in jail for corruption. Also a first-timer, a retired
Vice-Chairman of Central Military Commission (CMC), Xu Caihou, is hunted down.4 Two
incumbent national leaders, both as Vice-Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese
3 Provincial level (sheng ji), ministerial level (bu ji) and army level (jun ji) refer to the same rank level in different institutions. “Provincial level” is used in local hierarchies in provinces, provincial-level municipalities or their equivalents. “Ministerial level” applies to positions or cadres in central institutions, e.g. ministries of the State Council, central departments of CCP Central Committee, etc. “Army level” is a rank level in the military. In this paper, we mostly use “provincial level” for short. 4 Guo Boxiong, the other Vice-Chairman of CMC during Hu Jintao’s reign, was investigated for corruption in April 2015. He is the second vice-state-level military leader who ever falls down due to corruption in CCP history.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
10
People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), are prosecuted.
March 2015 marks the end of Xi’s early reign for three reasons. First, by that time Xi had
assumed offices of all major positions that grant him the autocratic power. He was elected the
General Secretary of CCP and the Chairman of CMC in November 2012, became the President
of the People’s Republic of China in March 2013, found and chaired the Central Leading Group
for Comprehensively Deepening Reform and the National Security Commission in January 2014,
and found and chaired the CMC Leading Group for Deepening National Defense and Military
Reform in March 2014. The general secretaryship of the party, the chairmanship of the military
and the presidency of the state compose the trinity of supreme power in post-Deng China, and
the three newly founded coordinating institutions are critical to the expansion of Xi’s power
beyond his two predecessors.
Second, Xi proclaimed his pivotal programs, the “Four Comprehensives”, in February 2015
(“Renmin ribao”, 2015). Those programs include: to comprehensively build a moderately
prosperous society; to comprehensively deepen reform; to comprehensively govern the nation
according to law; and to comprehensively strictly govern the party. In February 2015, the four
programs were fabricated to form an organic whole that pointed to the direction of Xi’s “Chinese
Dream”. They set the tone for the subsequent national “Two Sessions”, the annual meetings of
the National People’s Congress and the National Committee of CPPCC, in the following March.
Third, and most significantly, March 2015 witnesses the first national Two Sessions after Xi
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
11
had assumed all his significant offices and proclaimed his pivotal programs. People’s Congress
and CPPCC are the legislative and political advisory institutions. Constitutionally, the National
People’s Congress is the supreme power organ in the People’s Republic of China, and all
executive, judicial, procuratorial and military branches are ultimately accountable to the National
People’s Congress. CPPCC, on the other hand, serves as the United-Front council that coopts
elites from satellite parties and a wide range of social strata. It makes political sense to set the
end time of Xi’s early reign on a national Two Sessions.
Colleague relations as ties
We code each and every political position that an elite has held in his career. For each
position, we code both its vertical and horizontal affiliation and its start and end time. We then
construct a matrix form where every prosecuted elite occupies a column and a row. Each cell in
this 104×104 matrix denotes whether the column elite and the row elite have any colleague
relation. It is a dummy variable, with 1 denoting the existence of colleague relation – and thus a
tie in the purged network – and 0 for nonexistence.
A colleague relation is coded if two elites have worked in the same institution at the same
time (see Figure 3). They are considered colleagues only if they work in the same unit on the
lowest shared rank level and their full rank levels are the same or next to each other. For example,
a vice provincial governor and a municipal party chief in that province can be colleagues. On the
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
12
other hand, a minister cannot have colleague relation with someone lower than a departmental
vice-director in his ministry.
Figure 3: Coding of Ties
Note: Reprinted from “Xi Jinping’s Tiger Hunt: Fighting Corruption or Fighting Enemies?” by J. Li, 2014, paper presented at Annual Conference of Chinese Association of Political Science, Taipei, Taiwan (ROC).
The purged network
With the nodes and ties coded as above, we apply the Fruchterman-Reingold algorithm for a
force-directed layout (Fruchterman & Reingold, 1991) in R to transform the cadres and their
colleague relations into a sociogram (see Figure 4). The purged network includes 18 isolated
nodes, 4 isolated dyads, and 78 interrelated nodes that form the major component.
The size of each node signifies the elite’s rank level: the higher-ranking an elite, the larger
his node. The only full-state-level elite, Zhou Yongkang, is positioned in the center of the major
component. He took charge of law enforcement from 2007 to 2012 when he was a standing
member of the Politburo. In this network, he has ties with his subordinate cadres from China
National Petroleum Corporation, Sichuan Province, Ministry of Public Security, Politics and
Provincial Party Chief�Provincial Deputy Party Chief�
Mayor�
Vice-Mayor
Municipality A� Municipality B�
Director of Department X�
Deputy Director of Department X
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
13
Law Commission, among others.
Figure 4: Network of Purged Elites in Xi’s Early Reign
Note: Data for nodes from CCDI website at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/ and PLA website at http://www.81.cn/, and
for ties from “Chinese Political Elites Database” at http://cped.nccu.edu.tw and “Leading Cadres of CPC and Chinese Government Database” at http://cpc.people.com.cn/gbzl/index.html.
There are three vice-state-level elites in the network. Ling Jihua was a Vice-Chairman of
the National Committee of CPPCC and a former top aide of Hu Jintao. He was the Director of
the General Office of CCP, a position that makes him a broker between numerous nodes. Xu
Caihou, a Vice-Chairman of CMC between 2002 and 2012, is relatively peripheral in the
network because he has few colleague relations with civilian cadres. Su Rong, another
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Li_Chuncheng
Wu_Yongwen
Yi_Junqing
Chen_Qiang
Liu_Tienan
Ni_Fake
Guo_Yongxiang
Wang_Suyi
Wang_Yongchun
Jiang_Jiemin
Ji_Jianye
Chen_BaihuaiGuo_Youming
Chen_Anzhong
Fu_Xiaoguang
Tong_Mingqian
Li_Dongsheng
Yang_Gang
Li_Chongxi
Ji_Wenlin
Zhu_Zuoli
Jin_Daoming
Shen_Peiping
Fang_Wenping
Xu_Caihou
Yao_Mugen
Wei_Jin
Shen_WeichenSong_Lin
Mao_Xiaobing
Fu_Linguo
Tan_Qiwei
Wang_Shuaiting
Ye_Wanyong
Zhao_Zhiyong
Su_Rong
Du_Shanxue
Ling_ZhengceWan_Qingliang
Yang_Jinshan
Tan_Li
Zhang_Tianxin
Han_Xiancong
Wu_Changshun
Zhou_Yongkang
Zhang_Qibin
Zhu_Heping
Chen_Chuanping
Nie_Chunyu
Bai_Yun
Bai_Enpei
Ren_Runhou
Sun_Zhaoxue Pan_Yiyang
Qin_Yuhai
Cai_Guangliao
Yuan_Shijun
He_Jiacheng
Zhao_Shaolin
Liu_Zheng
Gao_Xiaoyan
Wang_Aiguo
Huang_Xianjun
Liang_Bin
Sui_Fengfu
Zhu_Mingguo
Zhang_Daixin
Fan_ChangmiYu_Daqing
Wang_Min
Han_Xuejian
Ling_Jihua
Sun_Hongzhi
Zhang_Dongshui
Chen_Jianfeng
Yang_Weize
Wang_Jianping
Lu_Wucheng
Liu_Hongjie
Guo_ZhenggangXu_Aimin
Jing_Chunhua
Li_Zhi
Qiu_He Liao_Yongyuan
Fu_Yi
Zhao_Liping
Li_Daqiu�
Wang_Minggui�
Liao_Shaohua�
Lan_Weijie�
Yang_Baohua�
Zhang_Gongxian�
Chen_Tiexin�
Dai_Weimin�
Duan_Tianjie�
Ma_Xiangdong�
Huang_Xing�
Cheng_Jie�
Ma_Jian�
Chen_Hongyan�
Wang_Sheng�
Si_Xinliang�
Xu_Jianyi�
Xu_Gang�
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
14
Vice-Chairman of the National Committee of CPPCC, is tied with cadres who are mostly his
former subordinates in Jiangxi Province. All the four national leaders are marked in brackets.
The Shanxi Clique marked in a dotted-line circle is the only clique5 of more than three
nodes. Those ten prosecuted elites are all colleagues in the standing committee or government of
Shanxi Province, which connects each pair of them.
Research design
Dependent variable: centrality
The dependent variable is centrality, a measurement of a node’s position relative to others
in network. Literature of social network analysis provides various measurements to quantify
different characteristics of nodes. John Padgett and Christopher Ansell (1993) attribute the rise of
Medici family in medieval Florence to their unique position of structural hole between the old
and new prominent families in the city-state. Padgett (2012) also studies China’s economic
reform under Deng Xiaoping and suggests that Deng’s brokerage position, which connects him
with the elders, military elites and reformist faction, facilitates his success.
Besides brokerage, centrality provides a classical perspective of measuring the importance
of a node. People in central positions in network have better opportunities to access and spread
information (de Nooy, Mrvar & Batagelj, 2005). Three basic structural attributes indicate
5 In graph theory, “clique” refers to a maximal complete subnetwork containing at least three nodes and every two of them are connected. It has the maximal density that any two of the nodes that are possible to be connected are connected. For a detailed explanation of concepts like component, clique, faction, density and others, see Chapter 3 in de Nooy, Mrvar & Batagelj (2005) and Chapter 11 in Borgatti, Everett & Johnson (2013).
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
15
centrality in different ways. First, studies of communication activity prefer degree centrality that
counts the number of ties incident with a node. Second, studies concerning control of
communication require betweenness centrality, that is, the number of shortest paths from all
nodes to all others that pass through a given node. Third, studies that focus on independence
suggest closeness centrality, the inverse of the sum of distances between one node and all others
(Freeman, 1979).
This paper uses PageRank, an eigenvector centrality that measures both quantity and quality
of a node’s ties. Google develops the algorithm to rank web pages (Brin & Page, 1998):
𝑃𝑅! = 1− 𝑑 + 𝑑𝑃𝑅!𝐶!!
In the algorithm, PR! is the PageRank score of node i, the one we are interested in. j
stands for all nodes with ties to node i, and C! is the number of ties of node j. We usually set
the damping factor, d, at 0.85 (Brin & Page, 1998). In this paper, PageRank measures the
relative importance of an elite in the purged network. If an elite scores high in PageRank, it
suggests that he occupies a central position among all prosecuted elites.
We expect the centrality distribution to be right-skewed since most elites are not densely
connected to others and only a few are well connected in the purged network. So we perform
logarithmic transformation on PageRank scores in the models so as to make the skewed
distribution proximate to normal.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
16
Independent variable: political prosecution
We take advantage of the two-stage prosecution procedure in China (see Figure 5) to
estimate the emphasis on political prosecution in a case. The first stage is intraparty inspection.
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), the principal intraparty
anticorruption agency (Guo, 2014), initiates preliminary inspection against a cadre and decides
whether to go into formal disciplinary inspection. It then takes a varying period of time for CCDI
to conclude party sanction.6 For years, the intraparty inspection and its opaque and coercionary
“double designated” (shuanggui7) have earned a forbidding reputation of brutal torture and
suspects often end up with forced confession (Human Rights Watch, 2016). The second stage is
procuratorial investigation. The Supreme People’s Procuratorate (SPP) investigates into the cases
of senior CCP cadres and files complaints of prosecution with designated provincial courts. The
cases are then heard and cadres sentenced.
6 For a more detailed description of CCDI’s inspection procedure, see Guo (2014). 7 “Shuanggui”, in its literal meaning, refers to the directive that a party member “be present at a designated time and designated location” in order to comply with disciplinary inspection (CCDI, 1994, Article 28 Section 3).
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
17
Figure 5: Intraparty Inspection and Procuratorial Investigation
Among the 104 purged elites in Xi’s early reign, we are able to retrieve complete data of 57
cases. The dates of case proceeding of these cadres are publicly available, either covered in news
reports or publicized by party or state agencies. In the intraparty stage from putting an elite under
disciplinary inspection to concluding the party sanction, CCDI spends 181.79 days on average.
The maximal record, 512 days, belongs to Song Lin, the chairman of board and party chief of a
Hong Kong-based state-owned enterprise. In contrast, it takes CCDI only 50 days to conclude
inspection on Yang Baohua, a Vice-Chairman of Hunan Provincial CPPCC, which sets the
minimal record. In the procuratorial stage from opening criminal investigation to filing a
complaint of prosecution, the average duration is 355.63 days. Chen Chuanping, the Party Chief
of Taiyuan Municipality in Shanxi Province, holds the maximal record of 579 days. The famous
Zhou Yongkang case sets the minimal record at 118 days.
Two-stage prosecution�
Procuratorial investigation�
Intraparty inspection�
2. Announcement of disciplinary
inspection�
3. Dismissal from office�
4. Conclusion of disciplinary
sanction�
6. Prosecution by filing a complaint�
5. Prosecurate opens
investigation�
7. Trial�
Judicial proceeding�
8. Sentence�
1. Preliminary inspection�
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
18
Figure 6: Correlation between Intraparty Duration and Procuratorial Duration
Note: Data for intraparty duration from CCDI website at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/, and for procuratorial duration
from SPP reports at http://www.spp.gov.cn/qwfb/ and other media resources.
It is reasonable to expect that the more complicated or severe a case is, the longer it should
take both party and state agencies to investigate into it. Therefore, the intraparty duration and
procuratorial duration should be highly correlated in a positive way. Counter-intuitively, though,
they are not. Figure 6 presents the intraparty duration versus procuratorial duration of the 57
cases. The Pearson’s r is only 0.036, indicating a very weak correlation.
The puzzling weak correlation results from the difference of substance under investigation
in the two stages (see Table 2). CCDI performs political prosecution as well as inspection on
economic graft. In contrast, the procuratorate is only concerned with offenses of state law and,
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Intr
apar
ty D
urat
ion
(Day
s)
Procuratorial Duration (Days)�
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
19
with few exception, elites are prosecuted for economic graft only. Although the procuratorate
often relies on the evidence and confession obtained in the previous intraparty stage, it has to go
all the way through formal procedures to verify and, if necessary, re-investigate into the facts of
economic graft that have been established by intraparty agencies.
Table 2: Different Substance under Investigation in the Two Stages
Economic Graft Political Prosecution First Stage: Intraparty Inspection
- Taking, seeking or offering bribe;
- Accepting huge amount of gift by oneself or family;
- Embezzlement; - Taking advantage of public
office; etc.
- Forming cliques within the party; - Inappropriate open discussion of
party policy; - Violation of political practices and
political disciplines; - Disloyalty and dishonesty to the
party; etc. Second Stage: Procuratorial Investigation
- Accepting and offering bribe; - Embezzlement; - Huge property without
identified sources; etc.
Note: Data for intraparty inspection from CCDI notices and reports at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/, and for
procuratorial investigation from SPP reports at http://www.spp.gov.cn/qwfb/ and other media resources.
This difference of substance allows us to estimate the emphasis on political prosecution.
Intraparty duration is a function of both effort of political prosecution and value of economic
graft, whereas procuratorial duration is only related to economic graft. The independent variable,
relative duration of political prosecution, is thus estimated by:
𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖 =d!"#$d!"#$
In this equation, 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖 is the relative duration of political prosecution, d!"#$ refers to the
intraparty duration and d!"#$ is the procuratorial duration. Both durations are measured in day.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
20
The more emphasis put on political prosecution against an elite, the larger the ratio. We can
show the validity of this estimation by the following proof. Let us suppose that α is an
institutional coefficient that measures the efficiency of intraparty inspection on economic graft, β
is an institutional coefficient that measures the efficiency of intraparty inspection on political
prosecution, and λ is an institutional coefficient that measures the efficiency of procuratorial
investigation into economic graft. Let x be the value of economic graft and y be the emphasis on
political prosecution. We have:
𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖 =d!"#$d!"#$
=𝛼𝑥 + 𝛽𝑦𝜆𝑥 =
𝛼𝜆 +
𝛽𝜆 ×
𝑦𝑥
Since all cases in our sample are handled by CCDI and under SPP’s direction, the three
institutional coefficients, α, β and λ, are constant in all cases. Therefore, !!, the emphasis on
political prosecution divided by the value of graft, is the only moving part that accounts for the
variation in 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖. We can thus conclude that this variable of political prosecution is a valid
estimator of relative emphasis on political prosecution against an elite.
Control variables
1) Graft
We measure economic graft by the monetary value of bribe and embezzlement (million
Chinese Yuan, RMB). If anticorruption agencies only focus on cleansing graft, this variable
should have a larger effect on centrality than political prosecution has.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
21
The distribution of graft is right-skewed. The mean value of economic graft of all purged
elites is significantly larger than the median value because of several cases of exceptionally huge
amount of economic corruption. So we log this variable in the models in order to normalize its
distribution.
2) Career length
A cadre with a longer career is likely to have more colleague relations in network. We
measure career length by the number of years of an elite’s public service, from the year he starts
working to the year he is put under disciplinary inspection.
3) Mobility
A mobile career means that an elite has served in numerous institutions, which increases the
chance of him being a colleague with more other elites. We measure mobility by the number of
institutions where an elite has worked. We count institutions at or above vice-provincial level,
such as provinces or provincial-level municipalities, central ministries of the State Council,
central departments of CCP Central Committee, etc.
4) Political seniority
A high-ranking elite has formed colleague relations at various administrative levels and is
thus expected to be central in network. In the models, political seniority is a categorical variable
with three values: state level, full-provincial level and vice-provincial level.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
22
Data
We compile the list of prosecuted elites with information from CCP official media. CCDI
puts online its case notices and reports starting from December 2012.8 We compile the list of
civilian prosecuted elites with data retrieved there. The disciplinary actions against military
generals are released at the official PLA website9 from time to time. The list of prosecuted
military elites is compiled based on news reports retrieved there.
To estimate centrality, this paper collects information of colleague relations from the
“Chinese Political Elites Database” constructed by Chien-wen Kou at National Chengchi
University in Taiwan10 and the “Leading Cadres of CPC and Chinese Government Database”
constructed by the official news website of CCP.11 Both databases hold resumes that, in most
cases, include complete career information of senior CCP cadres. We also retrieve information of
career length, mobility and political seniority of purged elites from those databases.
For the variable of political prosecution, this paper relies primarily on public notices that
CCDI and SPP issue. The data of intraparty duration are compiled from CCDI reports.12 For
procuratorate duration, we retrieve information from the SPP website13 and a variety of official
8 See “Jilv Shencha (紀律審查, Disciplinary Inspection)” from Zhongyang jiwei jianchabu wangzhan (中央紀委監察部網站, the website of CCDI/Ministry of Supervision), at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/ 9 See Zhongguo junwang (中國軍網, the website of PLA), at http://www.81.cn/ 10 See “Zhonggong zhengzhi jingying ziliaoku (中共政治菁英資料庫, Chinese Political Elites Database)”, at http://cped.nccu.edu.tw 11 See “Zhongguo dangzheng lingdao ganbu ziliaoku (中國黨政領導幹部資料庫, Leading Cadres of CPC and Chinese Government Database)” constructed by Zhongguo gongchandang xinwen wang (中國共產黨新聞網, CPC News.cn), at http://cpc.people.com.cn/gbzl/index.html 12 See “Jilv Shencha (紀律審查, Disciplinary Inspection)” from Zhongyang jiwei jianchabu wangzhan (中央紀委監察部網站, the website of CCDI/Ministry of Supervision), at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/ 13 See “Quanwei Fabu (權威發布, Official Announcements)” from the website of Zuigao Renmin Jianchayuan (最高人民檢察院網站, SPP website), at http://www.spp.gov.cn/qwfb/
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
23
media of CCP and state agencies.
Value of graft is learned from procuratorate complaints and court judgments collected in the
same way as for procuratorate duration.
Results and discussion
Table 3 shows descriptive statistics. PageRank measures the network centrality of purged
CCP cadres, which refers to their connectedness to each other in the purged network. Zhou
Yongkang scores the highest PageRank at 0.0373. As a seasoned politician who retires as a
national leader after working in a wide range of party and state institutions, his outstanding
importance in the purged network is expected. In contrast, there are 7 purged cadres who do not
share a colleague relation with anyone else in the purged network and thus score 0 in PageRank.
Table 3: Descriptive Statistics
Civilian Cadres Min Max Mean Median SD Centrality
(PageRank) 0 0.0373 0.0104 0.0091 0.0075
Career Length (years of service)
25 49 38.44 40 5.74
Mobility (number of institutions)
1 10 3.86 4 2.00
Political Seniority (rank level)
1 3 1.23 1 0.54
Graft (million RMB)
0.91 537.97 54.18 20.86 86.58
Political Prosecution (relative duration)
0.14 1.58 0.55 0.44 0.36
N=57
Note: Political seniority: 1=vice-provincial level; 2=full-provincial level; 3=state level.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
24
The 57 purged cadres generally started their careers in late 1970s, and so the mean value of
career length is 38.44 years. Their careers are mobile, as they have worked in 3.86 provinces or
ministries on average. Most of the purged cadres are at vice-provincial levels with the exceptions
of 3 national leaders and 7 full-provincial level cadres.
The distribution of the monetary value of their graft is highly right-skewed. The charges
against their economic corruption include bribery, embezzlement, possession of huge amount of
properties without identified sources, etc. The cadre who commits the least graft is Chen
Chuanping, who takes bribes worth 910 thousand RMB. In addition to bribery and
embezzlement, nonetheless, Chen as the Party Chief of Taiyuan Municipality also causes more
than 900 million RMB loss of national assets by his abuse of power. There are 8 cadres whose
bribery and embezzlement is worth more than 100 million RMB, 2 cadres more than 200 million,
and 1 cadre more than 500 million. This “champion of graft” is Wu Changshun, a
Vice-Chairman of Tianjin Municipal CPPCC and the Director of Municipal Department of
Public Security. Wu has once worked under Zhou Yongkang.
The mean ratio of intraparty duration to procuratorial duration is 0.55, which suggests that
the time that CCDI spends on disciplinary inspection of a case is on average about a half of what
the procuratorate spends on legal investigation. The least ratio is 0.14 recorded in the case of
Liang Bin, the Director of Hebei Provincial Organization Department. CCDI announces Liang’s
party sanction 67 days after putting him under inspection, and then it takes the procuratorate 465
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
25
days to file his prosecution. Li Chuncheng sets the largest ratio at 1.58. As a Deputy Party Chief
of Sichuan Province and an alternative member of CCP Central Committee, Li is the very first
“tiger” hunted down after Xi took power in November 2012. He waits as long as 509 days for his
disciplinary sanction from CCDI and another 323 days for his case to be prosecuted.
Figure 7: Centrality vs. Career Length, Mobility, Political Seniority, Graft and Political
Prosecution Note: Pearson’s r with centrality: career length=0.077; mobility=0.332; political seniority=0.739; log(graft)=0.352;
political prosecution=0.236. Political seniority is recoded into 6 values in Figure 7: 1=vice-provincial level;
2=vice-provincial level with alternative membership in the Central Committee; 3=full-provincial level;
4=full-provincial level with membership in the Central Committee or CCDI; 5=vice-state level; 6=full-state level.
Figure 7 presents the correlation between centrality and other variables. Most independent
and control variables are not highly correlated with centrality. The number of years of a cadre’s
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
(0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50
Cen
tral
ity (P
age
Ran
k)
Graft: Log(Million RMB)�
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Political Prosecution (Relative Duration)�
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Cen
tral
ity (P
age
Ran
k)
Career Length
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0 2 4 6 8 10
Mobility
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Political Seniority
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
26
public service is the least correlated with his PageRank score in the purged network, with the
Pearson’s r less than 0.1. None of political mobility, logged value of graft and relative duration
of political prosecution is a good predictor of PageRank either.
Political seniority appears to be the sole exception. In the correlation analysis, rank level is
recoded into 6 values. Some vice-provincial-level cadres are more powerful than others because
they sit in the Central Committee as alternative members; they are coded with a separate rank
level. Similarly, those full-provincial-level cadres with any membership in either the Central
Committee or CCDI are distinguished from others without. The three national leaders are
recoded into two groups: full-state level and vice-state level. Zhou Yongkang is the only
observation in the former, whereas Su Rong and Ling Jihua are the two in the latter category.
As Figure 7 shows, there is a clear positive correlation of seniority and centrality. The
Pearson’s r between the rank level of a prosecuted cadre and his PageRank is 0.739, indicating a
high correlation. Zhou Yongkang, the most senior tiger caught in Xi’s anticorruption campaign,
is the most central cadre in the purged network. The two vice-state-level leaders, Ling Jihua and
Su Rong, score the second and third highest PageRank. Vice-provincial-level cadres without
Central Committee membership, in contrast, are clustered in the bottom of centrality ranking.
We put the variables into four linear models. The dependent variable is an elite’s centrality
in the purged network. The independent variable of interest is political prosecution. It measures
the emphasis on political prosecution against an elite. We use the variable of graft to control the
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
27
monetary value of bribe and embezzlement. This variable provides the main competing
explanation that we consider in this paper. Other control variables include career length, political
mobility and political seniority. The length of an elite’s public service tells us how many years
an elite has worked. Mobility is the number of party or state institutions where an elite has served.
Lastly, we use political seniority to indicate the peak of an elite’s administrative rank level. Base
Model only includes control variables of career length, mobility and political seniority. The other
three are prosecution models. Graft Model and Political Model take in graft and political
prosecution, respectively, in addition to the three control variables. Full Model is the full model
that has all the five independent and control variables.
Table 4: Graft and Political Prosecution Upon Centrality
Dependent Variable: Log(Centrality) Civilian Cadres
Base Model Graft Model Political Model Full Model
Career Length: years of service
−0.005 (0.013)
−0.004 (0.013)
−0.005 (0.013)
−0.004 (0.013)
Mobility: number of institutions
−0.014 (0.041)
−0.012 (0.041)
−0.014 (0.041)
−0.013 (0.042)
Political Seniority Full-Provincial Level 0.469**
(0.219) 0.444* (0.226)
0.457** (0.225)
0.429* (0.233)
State Level 1.318*** (0.321)
1.258*** (0.345)
1.307*** (0.327)
1.242*** (0.352)
Log(Graft): million RMB
0.030 (0.059)
0.032 (0.060)
Political Prosecution relative duration
0.054 (0.191)
0.063 (0.194)
Observations 50 50 50 50 R-squared 0.330 0.334 0.331 0.335 *significant at 10%; **significant at 5%; ***significant at 1%
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
28
It is to be noted that testing statistical significance does not provide much analytical
leverage in this research. The dependent variable, centrality, is a network attribute derived from
the interrelations of nodes, and so its value is not independent and identically distributed.
Therefore, the test for statistical significance, which is based on the assumption that the random
variables are independent and identically distributed, cannot be used in this research. What we
are interested in, instead, is the direction of coefficients of graft and political prosecution in Graft
Model and Political Model, and the comparison of their effects on centrality in Full Model. In all
the four models, the values of centrality and graft are logged in order to normalize their
right-skewed distributions.
Table 4 presents the results. In the Base Model, we only use career length, mobility and
political seniority to predict centrality. As discussed previously, the longer an elite has worked,
the more institutions he has worked in, and the higher-ranking he is, the more central he is
expected to be in network. These variables should have positive effects on centrality. However,
neither career length nor mobility positively affects centrality. The only variable that falls in line
with our expectation is political seniority. It is also the only variable with statistically significant
effects. In all the four models, both dummies of full-provincial level and state level are positively
correlated with PageRank. For example, in Full Model, a state-level leader and a
full-provincial-level cadre, ceteris paribus, respectively scores 246.3% and 53.6% more in
PageRank than a cadre at vice-provincial level. The incremental advancement from provincial
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
29
level to state level has an even larger effect on centrality than the advancement from
vice-provincial level to full-provincial level.
We have three prosecution models to examine the effects of different investigation
emphasis. Graft Model includes graft, Political Model includes political prosecution, and Full
Model includes both. Full Model allows us to compare the effects of graft and political
prosecution on centrality. If investigation focuses on economic graft, it will trace from an elite to
his colleagues by the collusion of economic graft, and thus the variable of graft should have a
larger effect than political prosecution. If the anticorruption agencies emphasize on political
threat of an elite to the autocrat, the network should grow from this elite to his colleagues
following relations of political alliance. Therefore, the variable of political prosecution will have
a larger effect on centrality than graft does.
As Table 4 shows, the effects on centrality of the two variables of interest, graft and
political prosecution, are both positive as expected. In Graft Model, every 10% increase of graft
leads to a 0.29% increase of centrality. In Political Model, every one-tenth-unit increase of
political prosecution results in 0.54% increase of centrality. At the mean value of political
prosecution, a 10% increase makes centrality increase by 0.30%. In Full Model, both variables
are positively correlated with centrality too. An increase of graft by 10% is expected to bring
0.31% increase of PageRank. A one-tenth-unit increase of political prosecution expectedly leads
to a 0.63% increase of PageRank. When political prosecution is at its mean value at 0.55, a 10%
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
30
increase of relative duration makes centrality increase by 0.35%. In Full Model, therefore, we
can conclude that the effect of political prosecution on centrality is no less, if not larger, than that
of economic graft.
To sum up the empirical results, political seniority is the only variable with a statistically
significant positive effect on centrality. The state-level leaders and full-provincial-level cadres
are more central in the purged network than vice-provincial-level cadres in all models. As for the
variables of interest, both graft and political prosecution are positively correlated with centrality
in prosecution models. In Full Model that includes all independent and control variables, the
positive effect of political prosecution on centrality is as much as that of the monetary value of
bribe and embezzlement.
Conclusion and limitations
This paper finds that political prosecution drives Xi Jinping’s anticorruption campaign as
much as cleansing corruption does. The two-stage prosecution procedure in China provides us
with the analytical leverage to measure the varying emphasis on political prosecution across
corruption cases. We measure political prosecution by relative duration, i.e. the duration ratio of
intraparty inspection to procuratorial investigation. The “tigers” hunted down in Xi’s early reign
are analyzed in the network of purged elites, where colleague relations are ties that connect
prosecuted cadres as nodes. We use the network attribute of centrality to observe the general
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
31
structure of Xi’s campaign. Empirical results show that political prosecution explains network
positions of purged elites as much as the magnitude of their economic graft does.
These findings suggest that the Chinese autocrat is indeed breaking down the institutional
constraints on his power and taking advantage of anticorruption to unseat his rivals. Contrary to
the prediction of some literature on limited autocracy, even in a highly institutionalized
authoritarian regime like CCP, an autocrat can still prioritize his personal agenda when he wields
the power of the party-state. Committed power-sharing arrangements, the alleged key to political
survival of autocrats and autocracies, are in fact fragile.
This study has two notable limitations. First, it only reveals the positioning mechanisms that
determine the network positions of elites in the purged network. It does not discuss why these
elites are purged in the first place, which may bear equal theoretical and empirical importance for
our understanding of anticorruption in autocracies. Future studies can construct a network of all
relevant elites and explain the purging mechanisms that decide which elites are picked by the
autocrat to prosecute.
Second, this study uses cross-section data that cut in March 2015. This choice of empirical
strategy is based on the assumption that March 2015, the end time of Xi’s early reign, concludes
a distinct stage of his anticorruption campaign. Much as this assumption makes good political
sense, it may be relaxed in future research to extend the time scope. Moreover, time-series data
can be used in order to capture the temporal dynamics of Xi’s anticorruption campaign.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
32
Bibliography
Boix, C. & Svolik, M. (2013). The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government:
Institutions, Commitment, and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships. The Journal of Politics,
75(2), 300–316.
Borgatti, S. P., Everett, M. G. & Johnson, J. C. (2013). Analyzing Social Networks. Thousand
Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Brin, S. & Page, L. (1998, April). The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search
Engine. Paper presented at the Seventh International World-Wide Web Conference (WWW),
Brisbane, Australia.
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M. & Morrow, D. J. (2003). The Logic of
Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
CCDI. (1994, March 25). Zhongguo Gongchandang Jilv Jiancha Jiguan Anjian Jiancha Gongzuo
Tiaoli (中國共產黨紀律檢察機關案件檢查工作條例, Regulations on Case Inspection
Work of Disciplinary Inspection Organs of the Communist Party of China). Zhongguo
gongchandang xinwen (中國共產黨新聞, News of the Communist Party of China).
Retrieved from http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/33838/2539632.html
Chan, W. (2014, February 11). China’s leader cozies up to Russia in Sochi TV interview. CNN.
Retrieved from
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
33
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/10/world/asia/xi-jinping-sochi-olympics-russia-interview/ind
ex.html
de Nooy, W., Mrvar, A. & Batagelj, V. (2005). Exploratory Social Network Analysis with Pajek.
New York: Cambridge University Press.
Fabre, G. (2001). State, Corruption, and Criminalisation in China. International Social Science
Journal, 53(169), 459-466.
Fan, C. S. & Grossman, H. I. (2001). Incentives and Corruption in Chinese Economic Reform.
Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 4(3), 195-206.
Freeman, L. C. (1979). Centrality in Social Networks: Conceptual Clarification. Social Networks,
1, 215-239.
Fruchterman, T. M. J. & Reingold, E. M. (1991). Graph Drawing by Force-directed Placement.
Software – Practice and Experience, 21(11), 1129-1164.
Gandhi, J. & Przeworski, A. (2007). Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats.
Comparative Political Studies 40(11), 1279-1301.
Gong, T. (1994). The Politics of Corruption in Contemporary China: an Analysis of Policy
Outcomes. Westport, CT: Praeger.
Guo, X. (2014). Controlling Corruption in the Party: China’s Central Discipline Inspection
Commission. The China Quarterly 219, 597-624.
Holmes, L. (1993). The End of Communist Power: Anti-Corruption Campaigns and Legitimation
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
34
Crisis. Cambridge (UK): Polity Press; Oxford (UK): Blackwell.
Hu, A. (胡鞍鋼) (2012, July 3). Huihuang shinian, zhongguo chenggong zhi dao zai nali (輝煌
十年,中國成功之道在哪裡, A decade of glory: what is china’s path to success). Renmin
ribao haiwai ban (人民日報海外版, People’s Daily Oversea Edition). Retrieved from
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb/html/2012-07/03/content_1075214.htm
Hu, A. (2014a). China’s Collective Presidency. Berlin; Heidelberg: Springer.
Hu, A. (胡鞍鋼) (2014b). Minzhu juece: zhongguo jiti lingdao tizhi (民主決策--中國集體領
導體制, Democratic decision making: China’s system of collective leadership). Beijing:
Zhongguo renmin daxue chubanshe (中國人民大學出版社, China Renmin University
Press).
Huang, C. (2014, July 30). Xi Jinping strengthens his grip with Zhou Yongkang takedown… but
what next? South China Morning Post. Retrieved from
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1561990/xi-jinping-boosts-clout-zhou-yongkang-t
akedown-what-next?page=all
Human Rights Watch. (2016). “Special Measures”: Detention and Torture in the Chinese
Communist Party’s Shuanggui System. Retrieved from
https://www.hrw.org/report/2016/12/06/special-measures/detention-and-torture-chinese-com
munist-partys-shuanggui-system
Kou, C. W. (寇健文) (2006). Zhonggong yu sugong gaoceng zhengzhi de yanbian: guiji, dongli
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
35
yu yingxiang (中共與蘇共高層政治的演變:軌跡、動力與影響, The Evolution of the
Communist Leadership in China and the Former Soviet Union: Trajectory, Dynamics and
Impact). Wenti yu yanjiu (問題與研究, Issues and Studies), 45(3), 39-75.
Kou, C. W. (寇健文) (2010). Zhonggong jingying zhengzhi de yanbian: zhiduhua yu quanli
zhuanyi 1978-2010 (中共菁英政治的演變——制度化與權力轉移 1978-2010, The
Evolution of Chinese Elite Politics: Institutionalization and Power Transition 1978-2010).
Taipei: Wu-nan (五南).
Li, J. (2014). “Xi Jinping’s Tiger Hunt: Fighting Corruption or Fighting Enemies?” Paper
presented at Annual Conference of Chinese Association of Political Science, Taipei, Taiwan
(ROC), November 9, 2014.
Lieberthal, K. & Oksenberg, M. (1988). Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and
Processes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Magaloni, B. (2008a). Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule.
Comparative Political Studies, 41(4/5), 715-741.
Magaloni, B. (2008b). Enforcing the Autocratic Political Order and the Role of Courts: The Case
of Mexico. In T. Ginsburg & T. Moustafa (Eds.), Rule by Law: The Politics of Courts in
Authoritarian Regimes (pp. 180-206). Cambridge (UK); New York: Cambridge University
Press.
Manion, M. (1998). Issues in Corruption Control in Post-Mao China. Issues and Studies, 34(9),
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
36
1-21.
Manion, M. (2004). Corruption by Design: Building Clean Government in Mainland China and
Hong Kong. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Nathan, A. J. (1973). A Factionalism Model for CCP Politics. China Quarterly, 53, 33-66.
Padgett, J. F. (2012). The Politics of Communist Economic Reform: Soviet Union and China. In
J. F. Padgett & W. W. Powell (Eds.), The Emergence of Organizations and Markets (pp.
271-315). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Padgett, J. F. & Ansell, C. (1993). Robust Action and the Rise of the Medici. American Journal
of Sociology, 98(6), 1259-1319.
Quade, E. A. (2007). The Logic of Anticorruption Enforcement Campaigns in Contemporary
China. Journal of Contemporary China, 16(50), 65-77.
Renmin ribao wu lun xietiao tuijin “sige quanmian” (人民日報五論協調推進「四個全面」, Five
editorials by People’s Daily on coordinated implementation of the “Four Comprehensives”).
(2015, March 2). Zhongguo gongchandang xinwen wang (中國共產黨新聞網,
CPCNews.cn). Retrieved from
http://cpc.people.com.cn/pinglun/n/2015/0302/c78779-26620196.html
Shirk, S. L. (1993). The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China. Berkeley, CA: University
of California Press.
Sternberg, J. (2014, July 23). Beijing’s Real Anticorruption Goal. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved
from
http://online.wsj.com/articles/joseph-sternberg-beijings-real-anticorruption-goal-140613410
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
37
6
Svensson, J. (2005). Eight Questions about Corruption. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(3),
19-42.
Svolik, M. W. (2012). The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York: Cambridge University
Press.
Tiezz, S. (2014, April 17). What’s Behind Xi’s Anticorruption Campaign? The Diplomat.
Retrieved from http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/whats-behind-xis-anticorruption-campaign/
Wang, X. (2014, August 11). Xi Jinping’s wider ambitions in rooting out graft. South China
Morning Post. Retrieved from
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1570872/xi-jinpings-wider-ambitions-rooting-out-
graft
Wedeman, A. (2005). Anticorruption Campaigns and the Intensification of Corruption in China.
Journal of Contemporary China, 14(42), 93-116.
Wedeman, A. (2012). Double Paradox: Rapid Growth and Rising Corruption in China. Ithaca,
NY: Cornell University Press.
Zhai, K. (2014, July 31). President Xi Jinping seeks his place in history – among the party greats.
South China Morning Post. Retrieved from
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1563061/president-xi-jinping-seeks-place-history-
alongside-deng-xiaoping-say?page=all
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
38
Zhu, L. (2015). Punishing Corrupt Officials in China. The China Quarterly, 223, 595-617.
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
39
Appendix: Cadres Prosecuted for Corruption in Xi Jinping’s Early Reign
Pinyin Name Last Institution of Service Rank Date 1 Li Chuncheng 李春城 Sichuan Province VP (AM) 2012/12/5 2 Wu Yongwen 吳永文 Hubei Province VP 2013/1/5 3 Yi Junqing 衣俊卿 Central Compilation and
Translation Bureau VP 2013/1/17
4 Liu Tienan 劉鐵男 National Development and Reform Commission
VP 2013/5/12
5 Ni Fake 倪發科 Anhui Province VP 2013/6/4 6 Guo Yongxiang 郭永祥 Sichuan Province VP 2013/6/23 7 Wang Suyi 王素毅 Inner Mongolia Autonomous
Region VP 2013/6/30
8 Li Daqiu 李達球 Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
VP 2013/7/6
9 Wang Yongchun
王永春 China National Petroleum Corporation
VP (AM) 2013/8/26
10 Jiang Jiemin 蔣潔敏 State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission
FP (FM) 2013/9/1
11 Ji Jianye 季建業 Jiangsu Province VP 2013/10/17 12 Liao Shaohua 廖少華 Guizhou Province VP 2013/10/28 13 Wang Minggui 王明貴 PLA General Staff Department VA 2013/11 14 Chen Baihuai 陳柏槐 Hubei Province VP 2013/11/19 15 Guo Youming 郭有明 Hubei Province VP 2013/11/27 16 Chen Anzhong 陳安眾 Jiangxi Province VP 2013/12/6 17 Fu Xiaoguang 付曉光 Heilongjiang Province VP 2013/12/17 18 Tong Mingqian 童名謙 Hunan Province VP 2013/12/18 19 Li Dongsheng 李東生 Ministry of Public Security FP (FM) 2013/12/20 20 Yang Gang 楊剛 General Administration of
Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine
VP 2013/12/27
21 Li Chongxi 李崇禧 Sichuan Province FP 2013/12/29 22 Ji Wenlin 冀文林 Hainan Province VP 2014/2/18 23 Zhu Zuoli 祝作利 Shaanxi Province VP 2014/2/19 24 Jin Daoming 金道銘 Shanxi Province VP 2014/2/27 25 Fang Wenping 方文平 PLA Shaanxi Provincial Military
District FA 2014/3
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
40
Pinyin Name Last Institution of Service Rank Date 26 Shen Peiping 沈培平 Yunnan Province VP 2014/3/9 27 Xu Caihou 徐才厚 Central Military Commission VS 2014/3/15 28 Yao Mugen 姚木根 Jiangxi Province VP 2014/3/22 29 Wei Jin 衛晉 PLA Tibet Military District FA 2014/4 30 Shen Weichen 申維辰 Chinese Associations for
Science and Technology FP (DM) 2014/4/12
31 Song Lin 宋林 China Resources (Holdings) Company Limited
VP 2014/4/17
32 Mao Xiaobing 毛小兵 Qinghai Province VP 2014/4/25 33 Chen Qiang 陳強 PLA Second Artillery Force VA 2014/5 34 Ye Wanyong 葉萬勇 PLA Sichuan Provincial Military
District FA 2014/5
35 Fu Linguo 符林國 PLA General Logistics Department
VA 2014/5
36 Tan Qiwei 譚棲偉 Chongqing Municipality VP 2014/5/3 37 Wang Shuaiting 王帥廷 China National Travel Service
(HK) Group Corporation VP 2014/5/16
38 Yang Baohua 陽寶華 Hunan Province VP 2014/5/26 39 Zhao Zhiyong 趙智勇 Jiangxi Province VP 2014/6/3 40 Su Rong 蘇榮 National Committee of the
Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference
VS 2014/6/14
41 Du Shanxue 杜善學 Shanxi Province VP 2014/6/19 42 Ling Zhengce 令政策 Shanxi Province VP 2014/6/19 43 Wan Qingliang 萬慶良 Guangdong Province VP (AM) 2014/6/27 44 Yang Jinshan 楊金山 PLA Chengdu Military Region VMR
(FM) 2014/7
45 Zhang Gongxian 張貢獻 PLA Jinan Military Region VMR 2014/7 46 Tan Li 譚力 Hainan Province VP 2014/7/8 47 Zhang Tianxin 張田欣 Yunnan Province VP 2014/7/12 48 Han Xiancong 韓先聰 Anhui Province VP 2014/7/12 49 Wu Changshun 武長順 Tianjin Municipality VP 2014/7/20 50 Chen Tiexin 陳鐵新 Liaoning Province VP 2014/7/24 51 Zhou Yongkang 周永康 Standing Committee of
Politburo; Central Politics and Law Commission
FS 2014/7/29
52 Zhang Qibin 張祁斌 PLA Jinan Military Region FA 2014/8 53 Zhu Heping 朱和平 PLA Chengdu Military Region FA 2014/8
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
41
Pinyin Name Last Institution of Service Rank Date 54 Chen Chuanping 陳川平 Shanxi Province VP (AM) 2014/8/23 55 Nie Chunyu 聶春玉 Shanxi Province VP 2014/8/23 56 Bai Yun 白雲 Shanxi Province VP 2014/8/29 57 Bai Enpei 白恩培 Yunnan Province FP 2014/8/29 58 Ren Runhou 任潤厚 Shanxi Province VP 2014/8/29 59 Sun Zhaoxue 孫兆學 Aluminum Corporation of China VP 2014/9/15 60 Pan Yiyang 潘逸陽 Inner Mongolia Autonomous
Region VP (AM) 2014/9/17
61 Qin Yuhai 秦玉海 Henan Province VP 2014/9/22 62 Cai Guangliao 蔡廣遼 Guangdong Province VP 2014/10 63 Yuan Shijun 苑世軍 PLA Hubei Provincial Military
District FA 2014/10
64 He Jiacheng 何家成 Chinese Academy of Governance
FP 2014/10/11
65 Zhao Shaolin 趙少麟 Jiangsu Province VP 2014/10/11 66 Liu Zheng 劉錚 PLA General Logistics
Department VMR 2014/11
67 Dai Weimin 戴維民 PLA General Political Department
VA 2014/11
68 Gao Xiaoyan 高小燕 PLA General Staff Department VA 2014/11 69 Wang Aiguo 王愛國 PLA Shenyang Military Region FA 2014/11 70 Huang Xianjun 黃獻軍 PLA Shanxi Provincial Military
District VA 2014/11
71 Duan Tianjie 段天杰 PLA National Defense University
FA 2014/11
72 Liang Bin 梁濱 Hebei Province VP (DM) 2014/11/20 73 Sui Fengfu 隋鳳富 Heilongjiang Province VP 2014/11/27 74 Zhu Mingguo 朱明國 Guangdong Province FP (AM) 2014/11/28 75 Ma Xiangdong 馬向東 PLA General Political
Department VA 2014/12
76 Zhang Daixin 張代新 PLA Heilongjiang Provincial Military District
VA 2014/12
77 Fang Changmi 范長秘 PLA Lanzhou Military Region VMR (AM)
2014/12
78 Yu Daqing 于大清 PLA Second Artillery Force VMR 2014/12 79 Wang Min 王敏 Shandong Province VP (AM) 2014/12/19 80 Han Xuejian 韓學鍵 Heilongjiang Province VP 2014/12/22 81 Ling Jihua 令計劃 National Committee of the VS (FM) 2014/12/22
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
42
Pinyin Name Last Institution of Service Rank Date Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference; United Front Department of the Central Committee
82 Sun Hongzhi 孫鴻志 State Administration for Industry and Commerce
VP 2014/12/26
83 Huang Xing 黃星 PLA Academy of Military Science
FA 2015/1
84 Zhang Dongshui 張東水 PLA Second Artillery Force VMR 2015/1 85 Cheng Jie 程杰 PLA Navy VA 2015/1 86 Chen Jianfeng 陳劍鋒 PLA Guangzhou Military
Region VA 2015/1
87 Lan Weijie 蘭偉杰 PLA Hubei Provincial Military District
VA 2015/1
88 Liu Hongjie 劉洪杰 PLA General Staff Department VA 2015/1 89 Fu Yi 傅怡 PLA Zhejiang Provincial
Military District FA 2015/1
90 Yang Weize 楊衛澤 Jiangsu Province VP (AM) 2015/1/4 91 Ma Jian 馬建 Ministry of State Security VP 2015/1/16 92 Lu Wucheng 陸武成 Gansu Province VP 2015/1/23 93 Chen Hongyan 陳紅岩 PLA Air Force VA 2015/2 94 Wang Sheng 王聲 PLA Air Force VA 2015/2 95 Guo Zhenggang 郭正鋼 PLA Zhejiang Provincial
Military District VA 2015/2
96 Si Xinliang 斯鑫良 Zhejiang Province VP 2015/2/16 97 Xu Aimin 許愛民 Jiangxi Province VP 2015/2/17 98 Jing Chunhua 景春華 Hebei Province VP 2015/3/3 99 Li Zhi 栗智 Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous
Region VP 2015/3/11
100 Qiu He 仇和 Yunnan Province VP (AM) 2015/3/15 101 Xu Jianyi 徐建一 China FAW Group Corporation VP 2015/3/15 102 Liao Yongyuan 廖永遠 China National Petroleum
Corporation VP 2015/3/16
103 Xu Gang 徐剛 Fujian Province VP 2015/3/20 104 Zhao Liping 趙黎平 Inner Mongolia Autonomous
Region VP 2015/3/20
Note: Data for civilian cadres from CCDI website at http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/jlsc/, and for military generals from the
website of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at http://www.81.cn/. This list only includes those tigers that were
ISA Hong Kong 2017 Jia Li June 15 [email protected]
43
publicly put under disciplinary inspection after the 18th Party Congress as of March 2015. Those who fell down in
Hu Jintao’s era and received trial under Xi Jinping’s reign are excluded.
Civilian rank levels: FS: full-state level; VS: vice-state level; FP: full-provincial level; VP: vice-provincial
level.
Military rank levels: VS: vice-state level; FMR: full-military-regional level; VMR: vice-military-regional level;
FA: full-army level; VA: vice-army level.
Auxiliary rank levels in parentheses: FM: full membership of the Central Committee; AM: alternative
membership of the Central Committee; DM: membership of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
Date: the day when the cadre was publicly put under disciplinary inspection.