Auto Sector Monthly Update-040411

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Automakers maintained their strong volume momentum in March 2011,

    recording double-digit sales growth. Despite expectations of a slowdown in

    demand due to higher interest rates and product price increases, volume growth

    remained buoyant on the back of positive consumer sentiment and heavy

    discounts offered by OEMs and dealers to clear their year-end inventory. Among

    the majors, Maruti, Hero Honda, TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland reported

    better-than-expected numbers for the month. Going ahead, however, hikes in

    product prices, increased fuel price along with higher interest rates would be the

    major headwinds that could impact performance of the players.

    Tata Motors(TML) reported 10.9% yoy (7.5% mom) growth in total volumes, ledby better-than-expected numbers in the commercial vehicles (CV) segment.

    Growth in the CV segment was led by a bounce back in M&HCV and LCV sales,

    which registered strong growth of 11.8% (30.6% mom) and 23.1% yoy (15.7%

    mom), respectively. In the PV segment, TML reported a 0.4% yoy (12.9% mom)

    drop in offtake, largely due to a 40.3% yoy (30.9% mom) decline in Indica

    dispatches. Nano volumes remained strong, posting 84.9% yoy growth.

    Ashok Leyland (ALL) posted better-than-expected numbers during the month,registering a strong 20.9% yoy (24.2% mom) increase in volumes to 12,168 units.

    Volume growth during the month was aided by strong performance from theM&HCV goods segment. Overall domestic M&HCV vehicle volumes grew by

    20.5% yoy, while exports posted healthy 11.5% yoy growth.

    Maruti reported better-than-expected 28.2% yoy (strong 9.2% mom) volumegrowth to 121,952 units, backed by strong performance in domestic markets.

    Domestic volumes increased by impressive 38.8% yoy (8.7% mom), while exports

    continued to witness sluggish growth, declining 26.1% yoy. Domestic performance

    was led by robust volume growth in the A2, A3 and C segments, registering

    43.3%, 33.1% and 32.6% yoy growth, respectively.

    M&M reported 19.9% yoy (9.4% mom) growth in total sales to 57,370 units, inline with our expectations. Growth was aided by strong 22.8% yoy growth in

    tractor sales and healthy 18.4% yoy growth in automotive sales. In the tractors

    space, domestic sales remained upbeat (up 24.5% yoy), posting the highest-ever

    monthly sales, while exports growth remained flat. Within the automotive

    segment, the four-wheeler pick-up segment grew by strong 15.4% yoy, sales of

    Logan stayed impressive and three-wheelers posted 32% yoy growth.

    Two-wheelers and three-wheelers:Bajaj Auto (BAL) posted marginally lower-than-expected overall sales growth of 12.2% yoy (down 5.9% mom), with motorcycle

    sales and three-wheeler sales reporting growth of 12.1% and 13.6% yoy,

    respectively. HH reported above-expectation 24.4% yoy (9.3% mom) growth in

    monthly volumes to 515,852 units, led by robust performance across all productsegments. TVS reported better-than-expected 28.2% yoy (7.8% mom) growth in

    total volumes to 191,208 units, led by strong growth across all its segments and

    backed by sustained momentum in domestic sales.

    Automobile SectorSteady growth

    Monthly Update | March 2011

    April 4, 2011

    Yaresh Kothari+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844

    [email protected]

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    Auto Sector Update | March 2011

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    Tata Motors

    TML reported 10.9% yoy (7.5% mom) growth in total volumes, led bybetter-than-expected numbers in the CV segment; however, PV sales came in

    slightly below expectations.

    Within the CV space, total volumes stood at 55,358 units, up 17.7% yoy(22% mom), as the M&HCV and LCV segments registered strong growth of

    11.8% (30.6% mom) and 23.1% yoy (15.7% mom), respectively.

    In the PV segment, TML reported a 0.4% yoy (12.9% mom) decline in offtake,mainly because of a 40.3% yoy (30.9% mom) fall in Indicas dispatches

    to 6,937 units.

    Nano volumes remained strong, reporting an 84.9% yoy (5.4% mom)jump, while the Indigo range of vehicles registered 4.5% yoy (19.7% mom)

    drop in sales.

    During the month, TML introduced the new Indica eV2, the most fuel-efficientcar in India with a mileage of 25kmpl.

    Exhibit 1:Tata Motors Sales trendSegment March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 83,363 75,151 10.9 803,265 642,685 25.0M&HCV 24,972 22,333 11.8 212,278 167,828 26.5

    LCV 30,386 24,687 23.1 284,647 233,697 21.8

    Total CV 55,358 47,020 17.7 496,925 401,525 23.8Utility vehicles 4,875 3,937 23.8 43,076 34,124 26.2

    Cars 23,130 24,194 (4.4) 263,264 207,036 27.2

    Total PV 28,005 28,131 (0.4) 306,340 241,160 27.0Export (Included above) 5,932 4,105 44.5 58,044 34,140 70.0

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:CV segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    TML posted above-expectation numbers

    on the CV front, the highest-ever

    M&HCV and LCV sales in a month

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    Exhibit 3:PV segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Ashok Leyland

    ALL reported better-than-expected numbers, registering a strong 20.9% yoy(24.2% mom) increase in volumes to 12,168 units. Growth was led by strong

    performance by the M&HCV goods segment.

    M&HCV passenger vehicles reported 7.2% yoy growth (27.7% mom),while M&HCV goods vehicles registered a substantial 25% yoy increase

    (22.3% mom) in volumes. Overall domestic M&HCV vehicle volumes grew

    by 20.5% yoy.

    Exports during the month posted healthy 11.5% yoy growth. Ashok Leyland-Nissan JV unveiled its first vehicle, Dost-1.25 tonne LCV, in

    March 2011. The product will be launched in 2QFY2012.

    Exhibit 4:Ashok Leyland Sales trendSegment March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 12,168 10,067 20.9 94,106 63,926 47.2M&HCV Passenger 2,728 2,544 7.2 25,226 18,481 36.5

    M&HCV Goods 9,296 7,434 25.0 68,010 44,348 53.4LCV 144 89 61.8 870 1,097 (20.7)

    Exports (Included above) 856 768 11.5 10,306 5,979 72.4

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    LL reported strong 20.9% yoy growth;

    Order backlog of 2,0003,000 vehicles

    was executed during March 2011

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    Exhibit 5:M&HCV passenger segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:M&HCV goods segment - Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Maruti

    Maruti reported better-than-expected 28.2% yoy (strong 9.2% mom) volumegrowth in March 2011 to 121,952 units. Growth was led by strong

    momentum in domestic markets. Domestic volumes increased by impressive

    38.8% yoy (8.7% mom) to 110,424 units.

    However, Maruti continued to witness sluggish growth in exports markets andreported a 26.1% yoy decline to 11,528 units. According to management, this

    was due to the removal of scrappage incentives in European markets.

    Growth in domestic markets came on the back of robust volume growth in theA2, A3 and C segments, registering 43.3% (8.8% mom), 33.1% (6.8% mom)

    and 32.6% yoy (6.5% mom) growth, respectively. Maruti reported itshighest-ever monthly sales during March 2011.

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    Maruti reported better-than-expected

    28.2% yoy and 9.2% mom growth in

    volumes, registering the highest-ever

    monthly sales in March 2011

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    Exhibit 7:Maruti Sales trendSegment March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 121,952 95,123 28.2 1,271,015 1,018,365 24.8

    A1 M800 2,915 2,762 5.5 26,485 33,028 (19.8)

    C Omni, Versa, Eeco 14,416 10,875 32.6 160,626 101,325 58.5

    A2 Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A-Star, Ritz 78,460 54,763 43.3 808,552 633,190 27.7

    A3 SX4, Dzire 13,910 10,453 33.1 131,282 99,315 32.2

    A4 Kizashi 103 138

    Total domestic passenger cars 109,804 78,853 39.3 1,127,083 866,858 30.0B: MUVs Gypsy, Grand Vitara 620 677 (8.4) 5,666 3,932 44.1

    Total domestic PV 110,424 79,530 38.8 1,132,749 870,790 30.1Exports 11,528 15,593 (26.1) 138,266 147,575 (6.3)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 8:PV segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Mahindra & Mahindra

    M&M reported 19.9% yoy (9.4% mom) growth in volumes to 57,370 units, inline with our expectations. Growth was aided by strong 22.8% yoy growth in

    tractor sales (19,848 units) and healthy 18.4% yoy growth in automotive sales(37,522 units) during the month.

    In the tractors space, domestic sales remained upbeat, posting a strongincrease of 24.5% yoy (3.3% mom) in volumes to 18,729 units, while exports

    volumes remained flat at 1,119 units. The tractor segment posted its

    highest-ever domestic sales in March 2011.

    Within the automotive segment, the four-wheeler pick-up segment grew bystrong 15.4% yoy, sales Logan continues to remain impressive with 190% yoy

    growth. Three-wheelers registered 32% yoy growth.

    Automotive exports registered 16% yoy growth during March 2011. Citing a strong outlook for the domestic tractor segment, M&M has decided to

    set up a new tractor plant in Andhra Pradesh with an investment of `300cr.

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    M&M reported 19.9% yoy growth in

    volumes. To set up a new tractor facility

    operational by FY2012

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    The new facility will have a capacity of 100,000 tractors and is expected to be

    operational by FY2012.

    Exhibit 9:Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trendSegment March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 57,370 47,862 19.9 590,716 472,914 24.9Passenger utility vehicles (UV) 16,302 14,258 14.3 169,205 150,726 12.3

    Four-wheel pick up (GIO +Maxximo) 11,520 9,979 15.4 105,588 76,387 38.2

    LCV 879 984 (10.7) 11,077 9,829 12.7

    Logan 1,018 351 190.0 10,009 5,332 87.7

    Three-wheelers 5,769 4,372 32.0 62,142 44,439 39.8

    Exports 2,034 1,754 16.0 19,042 11,567 64.6

    Total automotive sales 37,522 31,698 18.4 377,063 298,280 26.4Tractor sales Domestic 18,729 15,039 24.5 201,785 165,633 21.8

    Tractor sales Exports 1,119 1,125 (0.5) 11,868 9,001 31.9

    Total tractor sales 19,848 16,164 22.8 213,653 174,634 22.3Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 10:UV segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: UV+Four-wheel pick-up combined from September 2010

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    Exhibit 11:Tractor segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Bajaj Auto

    BAL reported marginally lower-than-expected overall sales growth of 12.2%yoy (down 5.9% mom) to 307,738 units.

    Volume growth was led by 12.1% yoy (down 4.3% mom) growth in themotorcycle segment, with Pulsar and Discover accounting for ~71% of overall

    motorcycle sales.

    The three-wheeler segment recorded 13.6% yoy (down 17.1% mom) growth to33,349 units.

    Exports reported slightly muted growth of 7.3% yoy to 69,884 units. This wason account of ~32,000 units in transit and would be reflected in April 2011.

    Going forward, with the addition of 130 new dealers from April 2011,management expects the two-wheeler monthly run-rate to increase to

    ~350,000 units.

    BAL re-launched Discover 125cc during the month with a price tag of `45,500(ex-showroom, New Delhi) for the base variant and `48,000 for the disc

    brake version.

    Exhibit 12:Bajaj Auto Sales trendSegment March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 307,738 274,277 12.2 3,823,929 2,852,676 34.0Motorcycles 274,389 244,870 12.1 3,387,018 2,506,887 35.1

    Scooters - 62 - 27 4,852 (99.4)

    Total two-wheelers 274,389 244,932 12.0 3,387,045 2,511,739 34.8Three-wheelers 33,349 29,345 13.6 436,884 340,937 28.1

    Exports (Included above) 69,884 65,134 7.3 1,203,718 891,098 35.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    BAL reported slightly lower-than-

    expected numbers for March 2011.

    Volumes grew by 12.2% yoy

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    Auto Sector Update | March 2011

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    Exhibit 13:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Hero Honda

    HH reported above-expectation 24.4% yoy (9.3% mom) growth in itsmonthly volumes to 515,852 units, led by robust performance across all

    product segments.

    A refreshed product range, new product launches, innovative branding andmarketing initiatives continued to drive the companys performance on the

    volume front. The new Super Splendor and Splendor Pro launched in

    September 2010 also helped the company in posting better volumes.

    Pleasure reported a monthly run-rate of ~30,000 units in March 2011.Exhibit 15:Hero Honda Sales trend

    March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 515,852 414,638 24.4 5,402,444 4,600,130 17.4

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 16:Two-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    TVS Motor

    TVS reported better-than-expected 28.2% yoy (7.8% mom) growth in totalvolumes to 191,208 units, led by strong growth across all its segments andbacked by sustained momentum in domestic sales. Two-wheeler volumes

    increased by 27.3% yoy (7.8% mom), while three-wheeler sales jumped

    by 82.1% yoy (5.1% mom).

    Volume growth in the two-wheeler segment continued to be driven byimpressive 49.6% yoy (5.8% mom) growth in scooters to 42,655 units and

    24.2% yoy (11.4% mom) growth in motorcycle sales to 79,642 units.

    Jive reported monthly volumes of ~4,000 units, while Wegos monthlyrun-rate was ~14,000 units.

    Exports increased by 34.4% yoy (12.2% mom) to 26,979 units, registering thehighest-ever monthly exports.

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    HH reported its highest-ever monthly

    sales in March 2011. Total volumes

    jumped 24.4% yoy

    TVS Motor reported better-than-

    expected 28.2% yoy growth. Scooterand three-wheeler segments continue to

    register strong numbers

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    Exhibit 17:TVS Motor Sales trendSegment March2011 March2010 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal sales 191,208 149,167 28.2 2,046,731 1,536,868 33.2Motorcycles 79,642 64,147 24.2 836,821 640,965 30.6

    Scooters 42,655 28,504 49.6 466,264 309,501 50.7

    Mopeds 64,484 54,085 19.2 703,717 571,536 23.1

    Total two-wheelers 186,781 146,736 27.3 2,006,802 1,522,002 31.9Exports (Included above) 26,979 20,067 34.4 234,411 165,414 41.7

    Three-wheelers 4,427 2,431 82.1 39,929 14,866 168.6Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 18:Scooter segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 19:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Outlook

    We remain positive on the Indian auto sector. Overall, we estimate auto volumes

    to register a CAGR of 11-12% over FY201113E, aided by an improved business

    environment for the sector. Over the long term, comparatively low penetration

    levels, a healthy economic environment and favourable demographics supported

    by higher per-capita income levels are likely to help auto players in sustaining their

    top-line growth. However, higher input costs and rising interest rates are the

    anticipated headwinds that could affect the sectors volume and earnings growth.

    We expect rising input costs to restrict profitability, despite being positive on the

    demand scenario. We prefer stocks where strong and improving fundamentals

    could deliver positive earnings surprises. We continue to prefer companies in thefour-wheeler space to companies in the two-wheeler space, consideringreasonable valuations and volume growth visibility.

    Exhibit 20:Relative valuation and recommendationCompanies Reco. CMP(`) TP(`)

    Sales (`cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY10-12EEPS CAGR(%)Y11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Ashok Leyland Accumulate 58 64 12,376 13,815 12.3 11.0 2.5 2.2 15.0 15.2 8.5 8.2 22.6

    Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,457 1,610 19,564 22,155 15.1 13.6 8.2 6.1 63.2 51.4 10.4 9.1 22.2

    Hero Honda Neutral 1,618 - 21,563 23,881 15.2 14.2 6.9 6.1 48.4 45.5 10.9 9.7 3.1

    Maruti Buy 1,300 1,522 42,559 48,899 14.4 12.8 2.2 1.9 16.3 15.9 7.6 6.2 6.6

    M&M Buy 744 881 27,158 30,300 15.2 14.0 3.8 3.1 27.3 24.4 9.6 8.7 14.1

    Tata Motors Buy 1,254 1,456 141,689 160,042 8.2 7.5 2.8 2.1 39.2 31.4 5.2 4.4 109.5

    TVS Motor Neutral 62 - 7,360 8,253 13.3 11.6 2.7 2.3 21.5 21.1 9.7 8.4 42.3

    Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on April 4, 2011

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    Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement

    Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationshipof the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

    Ashok Leyland No No No No

    Tata Motors No No No No

    Maruti Suzuki No No No No

    Mahindra & Mahindra No No No No

    Bajaj Auto No No No No

    Hero Honda No No No No

    TVS Motor No No No No

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce -5% to 15% Sell < -15%

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    Auto Sector Update | March 2011

    A il 4 2011 13

    6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800

    Research Team

    Fundamental:

    Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

    Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

    Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure [email protected]

    Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping [email protected]

    Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap [email protected]

    Srishti Anand IT, Telecom [email protected]

    Bhavesh Chauhan Metals, Mining [email protected]

    Chitrangda Kapur FMCG, Media [email protected]

    Jai Sharda Mid-cap [email protected]

    Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected]

    Naitik Mody Mid-cap [email protected]

    Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) [email protected]

    V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

    Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) [email protected] Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) [email protected]

    Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) [email protected]

    Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

    Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected]

    Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) [email protected]

    Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected]

    Ankita Somani Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

    Varun Varma Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

    Vasant Lohiya Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

    Poonam Sanghavi Research Associate (Pharmaceutical) [email protected]

    Technicals:

    Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

    Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst [email protected]

    Derivatives:

    Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

    Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst [email protected]

    Institutional Sales Team:

    Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

    Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

    Pranav Modi Sr. Manager [email protected]

    Jay Harsora Manager [email protected]

    Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

    Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]

    Production Team:

    Simran Kaur Research Editor [email protected]

    Bharat Patil Production [email protected]

    Dilip Patel Production [email protected]

    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/ INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / C ORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302