AUTO SALES PACE SLOWING AS DEALERSHIPS RUN DRY

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www.spotsndots.com Subscriptions: $350 per year. This publication cannot be distributed beyond the office of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or [email protected] Copyright 2021. The Daily News of TV Sales Thursday, July 1, 2021 ANALYSTS SEE DECLINING VOLUME ON HORIZON U.S. light-vehicle sales slowed in June from the booming pace of April and May, as shortages of many popular vehicles kept consumers on the sidelines, Automotive News reports. Q2 sales are still expected to reach the highest level since at least 2018, but analysts anticipate declining volume in the months ahead. Cox Automotive expects total sales of 4.5 million in Q2, up 1.2% from 2019 and up 51% from the same period of 2020, in the early months of the pandemic. For June, Cox estimates that the seasonally adjusted, annualized light-vehicle selling rate fell to 16.4 million from 17.1 million in May and more than 18 million in April. LMC Automotive and J.D. Power project a SAAR of 15.8 million. Most automakers plan to report June and Q2 sales today. “It is unlikely the industry can maintain the sales pace any longer because inventory is getting extremely tight. If shoppers can’t find the product they want, a sale can’t be made,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox. “A green spring is going to be followed by a summer drought.” Cox forecasts full-year volume of 16.5 million, up from 14.6 million in 2020 but short of the 17 million vehicles sold in 2019. Sales for the first half of the year are expected to be flat with the first half of 2019, but the global microchip shortage that’s disrupted production at many assembly plants is expected to keep 2021 below the pace of 2019 in the second half, Chesbrough said. Chip-related assembly line shutdowns and slowdowns have cut production by about 4.6 million vehicles globally, according to AutoForecast Solutions, which projects the crisis to result in a total loss of 5.8 million vehicles. “The market could be stronger if not for the lack of available supply,” Chesbrough said. “Concern about the supply situation really cannot be overstated, as we are in untested territory for the market.” Q2 sales were off to a strong start in April as COVID-19 vaccines became widely available, said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights. “Unfortunately, the chipset and inventory shortages really came to a head and outstripped supply in June,” she said. “This isn’t a problem that’s going away anytime soon, but the silver lining for automakers and dealers in the meantime is that consumer demand continues to run high and shoppers are clearly willing to pay inflated prices for the vehicles that they want.” Today, dealers have 1.3 million fewer vehicles on their lots than in the middle of 2020 and more than 2 million fewer than in mid-2019, according to Cox. Average days’ supply has plummeted more than 60% from January through May. The lack of inventory pushed the industry’s average new-vehicle transation price to a record $40,206 in June, according to J.D. Power. That’s nearly $1,700 more than the previous record set only a month ago. AUTO SALES PACE SLOWING AS DEALERSHIPS RUN DRY ADVERTISER NEWS United Airlines has unveiled its largest-ever aircraft or- der: 270 narrow-body jetliners from Boeing and Airbus as the carrier charts its post-pandemic growth. CNBC says the fleet plan is central to United’s goal of capturing more travel- ers, particularly high-paying ones in major coastal hubs like San Francisco and Newark, N.J. The Max 10 and A321neo planes are the largest models in their families and United will use them to grow in those markets, which have capac- ity constraints, said Andrew Nocella, United’s chief com- mercial officer… Bed Bath & Beyond reported that Q1 net sales increased 49.5% year over year to nearly $2 billion but decreased 24% from 2019. The retailer also said its compa- rable sales grew 86% over 2020 figures and 3% compared to 2019, driven by digital sales growth of 84%... A franchisee of more than 400 quick-serve restaurants and convenience stores has assumed the role of franchisor for the first time in its 16-year history. Ampex Brands, a franchisee of Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell, Long John Silver’s and 7-Eleven stores, has acquired Au Bon Pain from ABP Corporation, a subsidiary of Panera Bread. Au Bon Pain’s 171 locations will increase Ampex’s footprint to nearly 600 units and its annual revenue by about 10% annually, the company said... Meanwhile, Fat Brands’ newest acquisition will more than double its footprint. The owner of Fat- burger, Johnny Rockets and seven other restaurant banners has agreed to acquire Global Franchise Group from Serruya Private Equity and Lion Capital for $442.5 million in cash and stock. GFG operates 1,400 fran- chised and corporate stores under five quick-serve banners: Round Table Pizza, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Marble Slab Creamery and PretzelmakerBlack + Decker has debuted a collection of goVia wearables and a subscription monitoring service to provide added safety and peace of mind for older adults. The three devices — go- Via Mini, goVia Move and goVia Home Classic — were launched under the company’s new Black + Decker Health brand and can summon emergency responders if users need assistance… Honda is developing an electric vehicle architecture and plans to begin producing EVs later this de- cade, using technology it has developed on hydrogen fuel cells and EVs through a General Motors partnership. Hon- da’s EV shift will take effect after GM makes electric Acura and Honda SUVs, which are slated to go on sale in 2024 in North America… Ford Motor will close several U.S. fac- tories through much of July and cut output at others as the computer-chip shortage spills into the second half of 2021. Ford said yesterday that its pickup truck factories in Michi- gan, Kentucky and Missouri will reduce or stop production for much of July, while an Explorer plant in Chicago will be idled for the entire month. Other models that will see produc- tion cut or scrapped in July include the Lincoln Nautilus and Ford Escape SUVs and the Ford Mustang sports car.

Transcript of AUTO SALES PACE SLOWING AS DEALERSHIPS RUN DRY

Page 1: AUTO SALES PACE SLOWING AS DEALERSHIPS RUN DRY

www.spotsndots.comSubscriptions: $350 per year.

This publication cannot bedistributed beyond the office

of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or

[email protected] Copyright 2021.The Daily News of TV Sales Thursday, July 1, 2021

ANALYSTS SEE DECLINING VOLUME ON HORIZON U.S. light-vehicle sales slowed in June from the booming pace of April and May, as shortages of many popular vehicles kept consumers on the sidelines, Automotive News reports. Q2 sales are still expected to reach the highest level since at least 2018, but analysts anticipate declining volume in the months ahead. Cox Automotive expects total sales of 4.5 million in Q2, up 1.2% from 2019 and up 51% from the same period of 2020, in the early months of the pandemic. For June, Cox estimates that the seasonally adjusted, annualized light-vehicle selling rate fell to 16.4 million from 17.1 million in May and more than 18 million in April. LMC Automotive and J.D. Power project a SAAR of 15.8 million. Most automakers plan to report June and Q2 sales today. “It is unlikely the industry can maintain the sales pace any longer because inventory is getting extremely tight. If shoppers can’t find the product they want, a sale can’t be made,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox. “A green spring is going to be followed by a summer drought.” Cox forecasts full-year volume of 16.5 million, up from 14.6 million in 2020 but short of the 17 million vehicles sold in 2019. Sales for the first half of the year are expected to be flat with the first half of 2019, but the global microchip shortage that’s disrupted production at many assembly plants is expected to keep 2021 below the pace of 2019 in the second half, Chesbrough said. Chip-related assembly line shutdowns and slowdowns have cut production by about 4.6 million vehicles globally, according to AutoForecast Solutions, which projects the crisis to result in a total loss of 5.8 million vehicles. “The market could be stronger if not for the lack of available supply,” Chesbrough said. “Concern about the supply situation really cannot be overstated, as we are in untested territory for the market.” Q2 sales were off to a strong start in April as COVID-19 vaccines became widely available, said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights. “Unfortunately, the chipset and inventory shortages really came to a head and outstripped supply in June,” she said. “This isn’t a problem that’s going away anytime soon, but the silver lining for automakers and dealers in the meantime is that consumer demand continues to run high and shoppers are clearly willing to pay inflated prices for the vehicles that they want.” Today, dealers have 1.3 million fewer vehicles on their lots than in the middle of 2020 and more than 2 million fewer than in mid-2019, according to Cox. Average days’ supply has plummeted more than 60% from January through May. The lack of inventory pushed the industry’s average new-vehicle transation price to a record $40,206 in June, according to J.D. Power. That’s nearly $1,700 more than the previous record set only a month ago.

AUTO SALES PACE SLOWING AS DEALERSHIPS RUN DRYADVERTISER NEWS United Airlines has unveiled its largest-ever aircraft or-der: 270 narrow-body jetliners from Boeing and Airbus as the carrier charts its post-pandemic growth. CNBC says the fleet plan is central to United’s goal of capturing more travel-ers, particularly high-paying ones in major coastal hubs like San Francisco and Newark, N.J. The Max 10 and A321neo planes are the largest models in their families and United will use them to grow in those markets, which have capac-ity constraints, said Andrew Nocella, United’s chief com-mercial officer… Bed Bath & Beyond reported that Q1 net sales increased 49.5% year over year to nearly $2 billion but decreased 24% from 2019. The retailer also said its compa-rable sales grew 86% over 2020 figures and 3% compared to 2019, driven by digital sales growth of 84%... A franchisee of more than 400 quick-serve restaurants and convenience stores has assumed the role of franchisor for the first time in its 16-year history. Ampex Brands, a franchisee of Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell, Long John Silver’s and 7-Eleven

stores, has acquired Au Bon Pain from ABP Corporation, a subsidiary of Panera Bread. Au Bon Pain’s 171 locations will increase Ampex’s footprint to nearly 600 units and its annual revenue by about 10% annually, the company said... Meanwhile, Fat Brands’ newest acquisition will more than double its footprint. The owner of Fat-burger, Johnny Rockets and seven other

restaurant banners has agreed to acquire Global Franchise Group from Serruya Private Equity and Lion Capital for $442.5 million in cash and stock. GFG operates 1,400 fran-chised and corporate stores under five quick-serve banners: Round Table Pizza, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Marble Slab Creamery and Pretzelmaker… Black + Decker has debuted a collection of goVia wearables and a subscription monitoring service to provide added safety and peace of mind for older adults. The three devices — go-Via Mini, goVia Move and goVia Home Classic — were launched under the company’s new Black + Decker Health brand and can summon emergency responders if users need assistance… Honda is developing an electric vehicle architecture and plans to begin producing EVs later this de-cade, using technology it has developed on hydrogen fuel cells and EVs through a General Motors partnership. Hon-da’s EV shift will take effect after GM makes electric Acura and Honda SUVs, which are slated to go on sale in 2024 in North America… Ford Motor will close several U.S. fac-tories through much of July and cut output at others as the computer-chip shortage spills into the second half of 2021. Ford said yesterday that its pickup truck factories in Michi-gan, Kentucky and Missouri will reduce or stop production for much of July, while an Explorer plant in Chicago will be idled for the entire month. Other models that will see produc-tion cut or scrapped in July include the Lincoln Nautilus and Ford Escape SUVs and the Ford Mustang sports car.

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GRAY TV UNVEILS ORIGIN SPORTS NETWORK Gray Television’s Raycom Sports has launched Origin Sports Network, a linear streaming network that will show the stories of All-Stars and Hall of Famers before they became household names. The network’s first TV carriage deals are with Comcast’s Xumo in the U.S. and The Roku Channel in Canada. Origin Sports Network will rely on four decades of sports production by Raycom Sports and show great moments from the early athletic careers of legends like Michael Jordan, Bo Jackson, Shaquille O’Neal and Joe Montana, as well as stars of more recent vintage such as Patrick Mahomes and Zion Williamson. Origin Sports Network’s first original production is The Rise, a series of 30-minute conversations with sports stars.

‘FAMILY FEUD’ AGAIN TOPS SYNDICATION, GAMES Several of the most closely followed talk shows generated plenty of ratings steam in an otherwise slow session ending June 20. Despite declining PUT levels, the top two talkers were among the few shows to leap into positive territory. Leader Live with Kelly and Ryan was relentless, rising 6% to a 1.7 live-plus-same-day national Nielsen rating, and repeats of Dr. Phil forged ahead 7% to a second-place 1.5. Live, which is having a banner year, has snared first place for six straight weeks and is the No. 1 talk show season to date among in the key women 25-54 demo. Elsewhere in daytime, courtroom sensation Judge Judy took a 4% breather but still scored a hefty 5.0. Hot Bench was the second-highest gaveler, growing 7% to a three-week high 1.5. In game shows, Family Feud fell 3% to a 5.7 but continued to lead the games and all of syndication once again. Jeopardy slipped 8% to a 4.7 with Savannah Guthrie at the podium.

WARNERMEDIA: UPFRONT A HISTORIC SUCCESS Like its rivals, WarnerMedia says it has completed all major TV advertising selling for the upcoming TV season, calling it “the most successful upfront marketplace in the company’s history,” Television News Daily reports. While the company did not offer specific details in terms of price and volume, Katrina Cukaj, lead of ad sales and client partnerships at WarnerMedia, said: “We have several new brands jumping in feet-first, alongside our long-term partners, who for several years continue to prioritize trust and the value of delivering on a promise in the most premium of environments.” She added that this includes advertisers buying into premium streamer HBO Max for its new ad-supported option, which launched earlier this month at $9.99 a month, an inexpensive version of its ad-free version priced at $14.99 a month. Recently concluded upfront deals for other major TV network groups — NBCUniversal, Disney, Fox Corp., ViacomCBS, The CW and Univision — have earned sky-high price increases of around 20% for the cost-per-thousand viewers (CPMs), according to executives. TV marketers also shifted a big part of their linear TV advertising budgets — around 20% to 30% — to their growing premium streaming video platforms and other digital assets.

NETWORK NEWS MeTV will premiere the drama Monk on Sunday, July 18. Monk was on USA Network from 2002 to 2009. Tony Shalhoub played Adrian Monk, a grieving husband and private detective consultant for the San Francisco Police Department. His obsessive-compulsive disorder and various phobias often disrupt the lives of his colleagues, but Monk’s heightened attention to detail and sharp mind help him solve crimes. MeTV will feature Columbo, which aired on NBC from 1968 to 1978, at 6 and 7 PM (ET/PT) on Sundays starting July 18, then Monk at 8 and 9 PM... Sofia Hasmik, who recurs as journalist Chrissy Beppo in the CW’s Superman & Lois, has been promoted to series regular for the upcoming second season... L. Scott Caldwell, who was recently featured in CBS’ All Rise, is joining the Fox drama series Our Kind of People. Caldwell will appear alongside Yaya DaCosta, Morris Chestnut and Joe Morgan in the series... Telma Hopkins, Linda Park and Vanessa Marano are set as series regulars opposite Shanola Hampton and Dascha Polanco in the NBC pilot Dangerous Moms. It’s an off-center dark dramedy about four diverse mothers who accidentally kill the queen bee of their school’s PTA during the demonstration of a new high-end food processor... And Robert Sacchi, the actor who so closely resembled Humphrey Bogart that he starred in the 1980 20th Century Fox comedy The Man With Bogart’s Face, died June 23 in Los Angeles after a brief illness, according to a family spokesperson. The Rome-born, Brooklyn-raised actor played Bogart or Bogart look-alikes in several films, TV shows and commercials, including on the series Fantasy Island, Sledge Hammer! and Cybill and Tales From the Crypt, on which he lent his voice. Robert Sacchi was 89 years old.

7/1/2021

FunnyTweeter.com

If I could travel back in time to before the pandemic to give myself one bit of

advice, it would be to steal more stationery from work.

Much more.

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LUMBER PRICES DIVE MORE THAN 40% IN JUNE The great lumber bubble of 2021 has popped. After a big rally this spring, lumber prices have come back down to earth as supply increased, speculative trading action cooled and homebuilding demand eased, CNBC reports. Lumber futures have tanked 42% in June alone, on pace for their worst month on record dating back to 1978. The building commodity is down more than 13% in 2021, headed for the first negative first half since 2015. At their peak on May 7, lumber prices hit an all-time high of $1,670.50 per thousand board feet on a closing basis, which

was more than six times higher than their pandemic low in April 2020. The quick reversal of lumber’s monthslong rally came as Americans started to go on vacations again amid the economic reopening instead of taking on renovation and building projects. Many who are fearful of persistent inflation also took comfort in the drastic decline in prices in the face of cooling demand.

THIS AND THAT Seventy-five percent of brand marketers have resumed live, in-person experiential marketing. That’s according to an analysis by experience relationship management firm AnyRoad, which is based on about 3 million unique experiential records from consumers engaging with more than 400 brands across 90 countries, primarily in the U.S. and the UK... In its continued effort to bring digital and educational equity to North Carolinians at large, PBS North Carolina has set the next phase of its NextGen TV rollout, which will bring the new ATSC 3.0 TV standard to the communities in and around Greenville, N.C. Last March PBS North Carolina launched NextGen TV in the Raleigh-Durham region in a collaborative effort with Capitol Broadcasting... Private payrolls increased by 692,000 in June, well above the 550,000 Dow Jones estimate though it fell short of May’s 886,000, according to ADP. Hiring grew the most in the hospitality sector, which increased by 332,000. The ADP report serves as a walk-up to the nonfarm payrolls count the Labor Department will release today.

7/1/2021

UBS Evidence Lab

Seventy-five percent of U.S. adults say they subscribe to

at least one streaming service. That’s up from 71% last year.

TUESDAY NIELSEN RATINGS - LIVE + SAME DAY

BLACK-OWNED MEDIA COLLECTIVE TAKES FLIGHT Group Black, a collective aimed at deepening the pipeline of Black-owned media companies, launched this week with an ad-spending target of $75 million from ad giant WPP unit GroupM, The Wall Street Journal reports. The new collective and business accelerator seeks to attract ad spending from marketers who are trying to diversify where they advertise. Group Black aims to advise advertisers and agencies on possible media plans with its members, which include Essence Communications, the publisher of Essence magazine; Holler Technologies, which specializes in stickers and GIFs for digital messages and posts; e-sports startup PlayVS and news companies Shade Room and Baller Alert. The new collective also plans to invest a portion of its revenue to buy equity stakes in Black-owned media companies. GroupM, a media-buying company, said it aims to spend $75 million of clients’ budgets through Group Black, a move that it said could help marketers find new media partners and more effectively reach consumers. GroupM has previously called on its clients to spend at least 2% of their ad budgets on diverse-owned media. GroupM clients participating in Group Black include Target, according to the companies.

UBS: STREAMERS FACING BIGGEST CHURN RISK Showtime, Starz and Paramount+ are among the streaming services that could be at greatest risk for subscriber churn, while HBO Max and Netflix may be at least risk, a survey from UBS Evidence Lab indicates. The survey of 2,000 U.S. adults, conducted April 8-26, found 75% of respondents reporting that they subscribe to at least one streaming service. That was up from 71% in a UBS survey conducted the previous year, but unchanged from its survey in December 2020 — suggesting that pandemic-driven heavy streaming may be moderating. Asked about their intent to cancel various services, 39% indicated Showtime, 31% Starz, 24% Paramount+ and 22% ESPN+. Services that fell in the middle were Peacock (17% intent to churn), Disney+ (16%), Discovery+ (15%) and Hulu (14%). Netflix and HBO Max drew the lowest levels of intent to churn: 11% and 12%, respectively.

DONE DEAL Tegna has appointed Christy Moreno president and GM of its NBC affiliate KING Seattle, effective Aug. 2. Moreno will be responsible for overseeing the station’s operations across all platforms as well as defining and ensuring the station’s organizational goals are met. Moreno joins KING from Tegna’s WHAS Louisville, Ky., where she has been president and GM since 2018. Prior to WHAS11, Moreno was news director at Tegna’s NBC affiliate KUSA Denver, where she oversaw daily operations for the newsroom and collaborated with marketing, sales and community relations.