Auto component industry prospects

Russian Automotive Market Research

Auto component industry prospects

Russian Automotive Market Research 21

Auto component market: trends and opportunities

Appendix


Automotive clusters in Russia

Source : Russian Automotive Market Research

Vehicle sales in 2013: 2 774.35

Vehicle production in 2013: 2 186.80

Capacity in 2014: 3 497.00

Capacity in 2020: 4 417.00

Vehicle sales in 2021: 1 914 – 2 340

Vehicle production in 2021: 1 622 – 2 032

Export potential in 2021: 200.00 – 300.00


Localization


51

OEM Start of production Capacity Models Localization level

Nissan (St. Petersburg)

2009 50 000

2015-100 000

Nisan Pathfinder Nissan X-Trail Nissan Qashqai – November 2015 Nissan Murano – June 2016

34%

Nissan (Togliatti)

End of 2012 Nissan Almera - 2012

Nissan (Renault plant in Moscow)

Nissan Terrano - 2014

Nissan (IzhAuto, Udmurtia Republic)

August 2014 2015

Nissan Sentra Nissan Tiida - 2015

Datsun (Togliatti)

2014 Up to 100 000 Datsun on-DO Datsun mi-DO

Renault (Moscow)

1999

190 000

Renault Logan Renault Sandero Renault Fluence – up to March, 2016 Renault Duster Renault Kaptur – April 2016

Renault Logan – 75% Renault Sandero – CKD Renault Fluence – CKD Renault Duster-CKD

Renault (Togliatti)

2014 B0 line – 350 000 Renault Logan Renault Sandero

Renault Logan – 75%

Hyundai-KIA (St. Petersburg)

2011 220 000 Hyundai Solaris Kia Rio Hyundai Creta Crossover – August, 2016

Hyundai Solaris – 47% Hyundai Creta Crossover: 2016 – 30%, 2017 – 50%

Hyundai-KIA (Kaliningrad)

1997 100 000

KIA Sorento, KIA Cee’d, KIA Mohave, KIA Soul, KIA Sportage, KIA Venga, KIA Quoris, KIA Optima, KIA Cerato, Hyundai i40, Hyundai Equus, Hyundai Elantra KIA Venga

KIA Sorento CKD – November 2013 KIA Cerato – November 2014

Volkswagen (Kaluga)

2007

270 000, including CKD: 225 000 SKD 45 000 vehicles

Volkswagen Polo Sedan Volkswagen Tiguan Skoda Rapid - 2014

Volkswagen Polo - 40% Volkswagen Tiguan - 22%

Volkswagen (Nizhniy Novgorod)

November 2011 132 000 Skoda Yeti - November 2011 - 20 000 Volkswagen Jetta – April 2013 - 40 000 Skoda Octavia – June 2013 - 50 000

Skoda Yeti – CKD 2012


Localization


OEM Start of production Capacity Models Localization level

GM (Togliatti) 2002 100 000 Chevrolet Niva 95%

PSA Peugeot Citroen (PSMA RUS) (Kaluga)

2010

125 000 – for PSA and MMC, PSA – 85 000

Peugeot 408 Citroen C4 Sedan

Peugeot 408 CKD, localization level- 35% Citroen C4 - CKD, localization level- 35% Projected localization level-50%

Mitsubishi Motor Corporation (PSMA RUS) (Kaluga) 2010

125 000 – for PSA and MMC MMC – 40 000

Mitsubishi Outlander Mitsubishi Outlander- CKD 2014– 20% End of 2015 – 30%

Ford (Leningrad region) 2002 125 000

Ford Focus Ford Mondeo Ford Focus - 30%

Ford-Sollers (Tatarstan Republic)

Elabuga - 2012

Naberezhnye Chelny - 2014

85 000 115 000

Ford Transit Ford Explorer Ford Kuga Ford-S Max Ford Galaxy Ford Tourneo Custom - June 2013 Ford EcoSport – 2014 Ford Fiesta - June 2015

Ford Transit – CKD April 2015 Ford Explorer – CKD April 2013 Ford Kuga - CKD October 2013 40%-2014 45%-2015 50% - 2016 60%-2018

Toyota (St. Petersburg) 2007 50 000 Possible in 2016 – 100 000

Toyota Camry Toyota RAV 4 - 2016

CKD - 15% 2014 - 30%

Mazda (Far East) October 2012 1 stage – 50 000 2 stage – 70 000

Mazda CX-5 Mazda 6 - April 2013

SKD

Great Wall (Lipetsk region) March 2014 Great Wall H6 Planned welding and painting

Great Wall (Lipetsk region) 2016-2017 Haval

Great Wall (Tula region) 2017 150 000 Haval H2 Haval H6 Coupe Haval H9

CKD Planned welding, painting, assembling Suppliers park

Brilliance (Derways, Karachay-Cherkessia Republic) March 2014 2014 -3500-4000 Brilliance V5

Chery (Derways, Karachay-Cherkessia Republic) Autumn 2014 10 000-20 000 Chery A 19

Chery T21 JAC (Derways, Karachay-Cherkessia Republic) February 2014 JAC S5

Dongfeng Tatarstan Republic January 2015 120-170 000 CKD - 2017 Lifan (Lipetsk region) Summer 2017 60 000 CKD

Hawtai (Partnership with KAMAZ, Tatarstan Republic)

50 000 Hawtai, 4 models: crossovers and sedans

Stamping, welding, painting, assembling Projected localization level – 60%

Foton Motors September 2016 Foton Tunland – pick-up Foton Sauvana - SUV


Localization


OEM Start of production Capacity Models Localizati

on level Autocomponents for localization

IVECO-AMT (Chelyabinsk region)

1994 1 000 TRAKKER - -

VOLVO TRUCKS (Kaluga region)

19, January, 2009 10 000 (by

2015)

Volvo FH-12 Volvo FM-12 Volvo FM-64 Volvo FM-42 Volvo FM-84 Volvo FMX

End of 2014 – 15%

Projected level - 33%

Different types of bodies, tyres, springs, cabins, chassis components, automatic transmission Possible assembly of axles, gear boxes in 2020

RENAULT TRUCKS (Kaluga region)

19, January, 2009 5 000 Renault Route Renault Lander Renault Kerax

20-50% Different types of bodies, tyres, cabins

SCANIA (St. Petersburg)

2010 5 000

Increase up to 7 500 in 2 shifts

Griffin P 380

28% Chassis assembly + body structure

Cable harnesses, fuel tanks, tyres, wheels, leaf and parabolic springs, frames, plastics and rubber, castings, forgings, machining, batteries, air surge tanks, torque rods, pressed parts, including surface treatment

MERCEDES-BENZ (Tatarstan Republic)

2010 2013 - 4 500 2018 -10 000

Mercedes-Benz Actros (Euro V) Mercedes-Benz Atego (Euro V) Mercedes-Benz Axor (Euro V) Mercedes-Benz Unimog (Euro V)

- KAMAZ is the main Partner Cabins, engines, axles, tires, fuel filter separator

FUSO (Tatarstan Republic)

April, 2010 7 000 Mitsubishi Fuso Canter - KAMAZ is the main Partner Batteries, tires

MERCEDES-BENZ (Nizhny Novgorod region)

July 2013 25 000 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter CKD licensed production of the engine at YaMZ plant Body part stamping at GAZ plant

MAN (Leningrad region)

2013 6 000 MAN TGS MAN TGX

- Different body types ZF Gearbox (KAMAZ JV -ZF KAMA)

ISUZU (Ulyanovsk region)

2006 5 000

Isuzu NLR85A Isuzu NMR85H Isuzu NPR75 Isuzu NQR90 Isuzu FSR90 Isuzu FVR34 Isuzu N1 Isuzu Forward 2017 – trucks, carrying capacity over 24 t

30-50% CKD brginning April 2014 Different body types

BAW (Ulyanovsk region)

19, July, 2011 40 000/ 60 000

(by 2015)

BAW Tonik 33463 BAW Fenix 3346 BAW Fenix 33462 Baw Fenix with gas-petrol engine

Projected level - 70%

Exhaust system, radiators, sound insulation, shock absorbers, starters, alternator, wheels, tyres

HYUNDAI (Kaliningrad region)

September 2012 2015 – 10 000 2018 – 25 000

HD 78 from September 2012, HD-170 , HD 120 from 2013 HD - 35

SKD, Since 2015 - CKD

FUSO (Tatarstan Republic)

April, 2010 7 000 Mitsubishi Fuso Canter - KAMAZ is the main Partner Batteries, tires

Tata Daewoo (Kaliningrad region)

October 2014 2 000,

Increase up to 15 000

Tata Daewoo Prima Tata Daewoo Novus MDT

Planned stamping, welding

Ford Otosan (Kaliningrad region)

2015 Ford 1846 T (tractor) cargo trucks 4X2,6X2, construction trucks 6X4, 8X4

CKD, frame production and body superstructure in Russia

Donfeng Motor (Saratov region)

500 City bus

HOWO (Far East) 2016 – Start of construction work


Auto component manufacturers: density by region



Foreign suppliers in Russia



Production of foreign suppliers in Russia



1

KAMAZ

Source : KAMAZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research

Purchasing of materials and components

16%

84%

2013

Imported

Purchased in Russia

19%

81%

2014

Imported

Purchased in Russia

22%

78%

2015

Imported

Purchased in Russia

25%

75%

2016, QII

Imported

Purchased in Russia


1

KAMAZ


16% growth in costs per 1 vehicle set, 2015/2014:

● Component price growth - 24%

● Material price growth – 43%

● Metal price growth – 2%

16% growth in costs per 1 vehicle set, 2016 QII / 2015 QII:

● Component price growth - 18%

● Material price decrease – 3%

● Metal price growth – 9%


1

AVTOVAZ

Source : AVTOVAZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research

Purchasing of materials and components

32%

68%

2014

Imported

Purchased in Russia

32%

68%

2015

Imported

Purchased in Russia

40% 60%

2016, I-st HY

Imported

Purchased in Russia


1

AVTOVAZ


Inventory price indices, 2015

● Components - 1.1220

● Materials – 1.1480

● Metal – 1.1860

● Total: 1.1270

Inventory price indices, 2016 I-st HY

● Components - 1.0166

● Materials – 1.0190

● Metal – 0.9691

● Total: 1.0120


1

Localization problems

Source : ARNPO

AVTOVAZ-RENAULT-NISSAN: suppliers from the Volga region caused 93% of INCOMPLETE

vehicles and 98% of IDLE TIME (10 months 0f 2015)

Incomplete vehicles

[thousand units] Idle time

[thousand minutes]

0,5

[2%]

29,8

[98%]

1,5

[7%]

18,6

[93%]

10,5

[10%]

96,1

[90%]

3,0

[7%]

40,3

[93%]

Volga Region

106.7

43.3

FY 2014 10M 2015

30.3

2014

Volga Region

10M 2015

20.1

Other Other


1

Auto component industry profile


Foreign suppliers Russian holdings Russian independent

suppliers

100% of foreign capital prevails Cooperation with foreign companies Poor cooperation with foreign

companies, Limited resources

Supplies to OEM prevail.

A few suppliers working in the

aftermarket

Supplies to OEMs and to the

aftermarket

Decline in supplies to OEMs

Competition with South-East Asian

suppliers in the aftermarket

2-3 key accounts A big share of internal supplies Decline in the market share

Supplies to the Russian market

prevail


prevail


prevail

Problems with localization: raw and

other materials, subcomponents

Problems: raw and other

materials, subcomponents

Problems: raw and other materials,

subcomponents


1


Challenges ● To cut production costs

● To develop supplier panel

● To develop operations base

● To develop R&D

● To develop logistics

● To identify the place of Russia in the global automotive industry


1

Identifying the place of Russia in the global automotive industry


«Supplier of technologies/ major exporter/supplier of

components»?

Worldwide overcapacity

Production relocation to countries with low costs/high market potential

Competition in R&D


1

Competition in R&D (1)

Source : Frost & Sullivan

Electric vehicle manufacturers in China (including hybrid)


1

Competition in R&D (2)

Source : Frost & Sullivan

Battery manufacturers in China


1


Russia – the Free Trade Zone center

Lower production cost

Qualified staff available – not always important

Raw materials available – not always important

Supplier chain available – not always important



1



Russia on the domestic market:

Keeping production of local and localized automotive brands

Dominance of local and localized component and spare parts

manufacturers

Further development of localization

Russia on foreign markets:

Niche player

Finding a niche


1

Forecast until 2021


26

,4%

27

,8%

23

,5%

26

,5%

73

,6%

72

,2%

76

,5%

73

,5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Russian brands Foreign brands

Car production composition by Russian and foreign brands


1

New vehicle import and export, 2014-2016 (January-June), units


Cars Trucks

LCV Buses

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016

Import, units Export, units

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016



1

Spare parts import and export


Spare parts import and export* Import of spare parts for and not for industrial assembly

* Hereinafter: 87 HS code

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2013 2014 2015 2016

Import, mln USD Export, mln USD

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2013 2014 2015 2016

For industrial assembly, mln USD

Not for industrial assembly, mln USD


1

Export: difficulties


• Limited potential of export markets

• Competition with local and global brands

• Dependence of some export markets on petroleum prices

• Political instability in some export markets

• Strong impact of foreign relations between Russia and export markets

• Customs barriers

• Costs related to participation in local events

• Certification/ homologation costs

• Logistics costs

• Distribution development costs


1

New vehicle market in Kazakhstan


0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

2014 (Jan-Dec), units


2016 (Jan-Dec)*, units

2015 (Jan-Jun), units


Car

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000






Truck

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000






LCV

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400






Bus

* Forecast


1

Auto component industry trends


Major trends:

● Limited production volume

● Growth in the spare parts market

● Fierce competition in the spare parts market: Russia vs South-East Asia

● Fierce competition between component manufacturers

● Some manufacturers are quitting the automotive industry

● Component manufacturers diversify their business

● Demand for components for gas engines and infrastructure

● Import substitution strategy


1

Car spare parts market capacity in Russia in 2015, mln USD


Tyres

Suspension

Oils

Filters

Brake system

Transmission

Steering system

Body parts

Electrical equipment

Batteries

Clutch

Exhaust system

Ignition system

Fuel system

Seat belts

Coolant system

Engine parts

2 880

2 416

1 991

1 310

1 180

987

869

785

764

720

715

565

522

363

315

200

163


1

Auto component industry trends


Key advantages of production in Russia: ● Russian market potential

● Currency risk mitigation

● Participation in public procurement

● Enhanced export opportunities


1

Forecast until 2021

Appendix

Appendix


1 734,75

1 261,88 1 118,26

1 586,31

1 143,99

1 769,86

1 092,15

1 413,61

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Car production, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenarioForecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario

31

1

Forecast until 2021


New car sales: 1 697.76 – 2 082.02 thousand units by 2021

Car production: 1 413.61 – 1 769.86 thousand units by 2021

2 460,08 2 268,76

1 157,45

1 890,96

1 282,74 1 175,38

2 082,02

1 139,53

1 697,67

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Car sales, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenarioForecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario


68,07

50,02 49,08

69,19 49,83

77,07

48,33

62,01

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Truck production, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenarioForecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario

Forecast until 2021


51

New track sales: 71.85 – 87.20 thousand units by 2021

Track production: 62.01 – 77.07 thousand units by 2021

104,54

81,46

44,91

79,40

48,26

45,79

87,20

44,03

71,85

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Truck sales, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenario

Forecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario


124,14

105,39

152,16

108,07

170,53

102,72

135,25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021LCV production, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenarioForecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario

33

1

Forecast until 2021


New LCV sales: 131.55 – 155.58 thousand units by 2021

.

LCV production: 135.25 – 170.53 thousand units by 2021

193,65

167,81

93,68

143,07

94,99

155,58

101,79

92,38

131,55

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021LCV sales, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenarioForecast: optimistic scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario


10,76 8,39

14,24

7,97 8,23

12,86

8,07

11,42

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Bus production, thousand units Forecast: optimistic scenarioForecast: baseline scenario Forecast: pessimistic scenario

New bus sales: 12.65 – 15.17 thousand units by 2021

Bus production: 11.42 – 14.24 thousand units by 2021

34

1

Forecast until 2021


14,70

10,45

8,22

8,35

13,87

8,47

15,17

8,23

12,65

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Bus sales, thousand units Forecast: baseline scenario


1

Import-export

Appendix

Appendix


1

New vehicle import and export, 2014-2016 (January-June), units


Cars Trucks

LCV Buses

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016



1


Used vehicle import and export, 2014-2016 (January-June), units

Cars Trucks

LCV Buses

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2014 2015 2016



1


New vehicle export, ТОР-15 recipient countries, 2014-2016 (January-June), units

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2014 (January-December), units 2015 (January-December), units 2015 (January-June), units 2016 (January-June), units

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014 (January-December), units 2015 (January-December), units 2015 (January-June), units 2016 (January-June), units

Used vehicle export, ТОР-15 recipient countries, 2014-2016 (January-June), units


1

New vehicle export, units


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

LADA VOLKSWAGEN HYUNDAI CHEVROLET UAZ

New car export, TOP-5 brands

2014 (January-December), units 2015 (January-December), units

2015 (January-June), units 2016 (January-June), units

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

KAMAZ URAL GAZ

New truck export, ТОР-3 brands



0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

GAZ UAZ LADA

New LCV export, TOP-3 brands



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

PAZ UAZ GAZ

New bus export, TOP-3 brands




1

Spare parts import and export


Spare parts import and export* Import of spare parts for and not for industrial assembly

* Hereinafter: 87 HS code

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2013 2014 2015 2016

Import, mln USD Export, mln USD

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q

2013 2014 2015 2016

For industrial assembly, mln USD

Not for industrial assembly, mln USD


1

Spare parts import, ТОР-15 countries of origin, 2013-2016 (January-June)


Country

2013

(January-

December),

mln USD

2014

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

June), mln

USD

2016

(January-

June), mln

USD

Change, %

Japan 2 315,2 1 899,3 -18,0 1 049,9 -44,7 588,7 438,3 -25,5

Korea 2 551,3 1 983,8 -22,2 835,8 -57,9 399,8 378,6 -5,3

Germany 2 226,8 1 464,2 -34,2 661,9 -54,8 340,0 372,7 9,6

China 1 295,8 1 104,4 -14,8 663,5 -39,9 338,8 329,8 -2,7

USA 727,0 569,0 -21,7 319,7 -43,8 150,6 171,2 13,7

Slovakia 1 123,7 886,2 -21,1 504,4 -43,1 266,9 160,2 -40,0

Czech Republic 342,3 318,3 -7,0 167,4 -47,4 88,1 89,8 1,9

Turkey 392,5 316,7 -19,3 169,4 -46,5 91,1 76,0 -16,6

Spain 292,3 191,8 -34,4 119,5 -37,7 65,8 71,4 8,5

France 274,5 191,3 -30,3 114,8 -40,0 57,1 60,9 6,7

Poland 185,9 125,8 -32,3 87,2 -30,7 42,1 54,7 29,9

Mexico 128,8 121,9 -5,4 94,9 -22,1 62,2 53,5 -14,0

Italy 241,2 158,0 -34,5 95,6 -39,5 47,6 36,5 -23,3

United Kingdom 100,7 77,4 -23,1 64,4 -16,8 28,3 34,6 22,3

India 85,6 92,2 7,7 70,4 -23,6 34,7 33,7 -2,9

Other 2 874,7 2 069,2 -28,0 1 082,3 -47,7 602,0 526,4 -12,6

Total 15 158,3 11 569,5 -23,7 6 101,1 -47,3 3 203,8 2 888,3 -9,8

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Japan Korea Germany China USA Slovakia CzechRepublic

Turkey Spain France Poland Mexico Italy UnitedKingdom

India

2013 (January-December), % 2014 (January-December), % 2015 (January-December), % 2015 (January-June), % 2016 (January-June), %


1

Component and spare parts import, 2013-2016 (January-June)


Группы компонентов

2013

(January-

December),

mln USD

2014 (January-December), mln USD Change, %

2015

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

June), mln

USD

2016

(January-

June), mln

USD

Change, %

Body parts and accessories

(including cabs), other than

bumpers and seat belts

2 502,4 1 998,9 -20,1 1 087,9 -45,6 589,5 496,7 -15,7

Bodies (including cabs) 4 031,9 2 697,9 -33,1 1 070,2 -60,3 625,3 447,9 -28,4

Transmission and its parts 1 699,0 1 334,0 -21,5 773,7 -42,0 393,7 386,2 -1,9

Suspension and its parts 1 175,5 915,1 -22,2 522,0 -43,0 252,3 271,8 7,7

Brakes and their parts 807,6 697,2 -13,7 496,5 -28,8 243,8 256,2 5,1

Wheels and their parts 1 241,2 959,3 -22,7 498,0 -48,1 253,4 226,0 -10,8

Steering wheels and their

parts 570,3 470,8 -17,4 308,7 -34,4 160,2 149,4 -6,7

Drive axles and dead axles

and their parts 715,1 554,1 -22,5 237,2 -57,2 117,1 117,4 0,3

Bumpers and their parts 364,1 289,6 -20,5 149,4 -48,4 80,6 63,7 -21,0

Clutch and its parts 195,7 166,5 -14,9 116,6 -30,0 53,1 56,2 5,8

Mufflers and their parts 275,3 218,7 -20,6 105,9 -51,6 55,1 51,0 -7,4

Radiators and their parts 247,6 184,9 -25,3 107,2 -42,0 57,7 45,8 -20,6

Air bags and their parts 156,1 127,6 -18,3 62,1 -51,3 35,9 33,9 -5,6

Seat belts 79,8 59,3 -25,7 37,8 -36,3 20,4 16,8 -17,6

Other parts and accessories 1 096,7 895,6 -18,3 527,9 -41,1 265,7 269,3 1,4

Total 15 158,3 11 569,5 -23,7 6 101,1 -47,3 3 203,8 2 888,3 -9,8


1

Component and spare parts import for industrial assembly, ТОР-15 countries of origin,

2013-2016 (January-June)


Country

2013

(January-

December),

mln USD

2014

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

June), mln

USD

2016

(January-

June), mln

USD

Change, %

Korea 1 212,2 852,3 -29,7 414,9 -51,3 223,8 158,0 -29,4

Germany 765,4 484,3 -36,7 274,2 -43,4 158,6 148,7 -6,2

China 275,4 269,0 -2,3 287,6 6,9 143,0 134,0 -6,3

Japan 1 852,1 1 485,1 -19,8 550,9 -62,9 393,7 79,4 -79,8

Czech Republic 257,6 250,1 -2,9 129,1 -48,4 71,5 68,1 -4,8

Turkey 182,0 157,9 -13,2 89,2 -43,5 50,7 49,9 -1,6

Mexico 65,0 106,5 63,8 82,0 -23,0 56,1 46,8 -16,6

Spain 218,1 124,3 -43,0 69,5 -44,1 43,6 36,2 -17,0

Poland 91,1 60,4 -33,7 47,3 -21,7 22,9 33,5 46,3

India 31,0 52,1 68,1 53,5 2,7 27,6 24,8 -10,1

France 148,3 91,5 -38,3 47,7 -47,9 28,1 24,6 -12,5

USA 110,6 155,8 40,9 80,8 -48,1 63,3 19,5 -69,2

United Kingdom 26,8 20,5 -23,5 26,8 30,7 9,6 15,3 59,4

Slovakia 43,1 30,5 -29,2 11,7 -61,6 6,7 6,9 3,0

Romania 124,9 17,6 -85,9 8,9 -49,4 5,0 6,2 24,0

Other 1 835,1 1 416,9 -22,8 567,3 -60,0 328,5 294,2 -10,4

Total 7 238,7 5 574,8 -23,0 2 741,4 -50,8 1 632,7 1 146,1 -29,8

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

Korea Germany China Japan CzechRepublic

Turkey Mexico Spain Poland India France USA UnitedKingdom

Slovakia Romania



1

Component and spare parts import for industrial assembly,

2013-2016 (January-June)


Components

2013

(January-

December),

mln USD

2014

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

June), mln

USD

2016

(January-

June), mln

USD

Change, %




1 589,1 1 214,5 -23,6 669,7 -44,9 385,8 291,0 -24,6

Transmission and its parts 1 053,3 825,6 -21,6 538,1 -34,8 285,0 249,3 -12,5

Steering wheels and their parts 354,3 281,3 -20,6 189,8 -32,5 104,9 94,6 -9,8

Suspension and its parts 395,4 290,9 -26,4 150,2 -48,4 79,0 89,4 13,2

Wheels and their parts 397,1 316,6 -20,3 201,9 -36,2 115,6 87,9 -24,0

Brakes and their parts 321,7 251,2 -21,9 177,4 -29,4 98,4 86,0 -12,6

Drive axles and dead axles and

their parts 243,3 199,1 -18,2 76,0 -61,8 43,1 26,4 -38,7

Mufflers and their parts 128,2 103,6 -19,2 52,0 -49,8 30,4 22,4 -26,3

Air bags and their parts 100,7 79,4 -21,2 45,4 -42,8 28,2 21,8 -22,7


Seat belts 54,5 40,9 -25,0 26,7 -34,7 14,7 11,6 -21,1


Radiators and their parts 82,5 64,2 -22,2 29,9 -53,4 20,8 6,6 -68,3

Bodies (including cabs) 1 743,4 1 308,2 -25,0 222,9 -83,0 222,9 0,0 -100,0

Other parts and accessories 667,7 505,4 -24,3 309,0 -38,9 173,3 134,8 -22,2

Total 7 238,7 5 574,8 -23,0 2 741,4 -50,8 1 632,7 1 146,1 -29,8


1

Component and spare parts export, ТОР-15 recipient countries, 2013-2016 (January-June)


Country

2013

(January-

December),

mln USD

2014

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

June), mln

USD

2016

(January-

June), mln

USD

Change, %

Germany 12,3 11,3 -8,1 21,8 92,9 4,1 13,9 239,0

Ukraine 123,8 38,1 -69,2 25,0 -34,4 7,8 11,2 43,6

Cuba 22,9 9,0 -60,7 15,3 70,0 3,7 6,0 62,2

Azerbaijan 49,1 19,5 -60,3 11,7 -40,0 5,2 3,0 -42,3

Venezuela 1,5 0,8 -46,7 2,9 262,5 0,0 2,7 -

USA 5,1 4,0 -21,6 3,4 -15,0 1,7 2,5 47,1

France 3,8 2,9 -23,7 2,4 -17,2 1,2 2,2 83,3

Czech Republic 5,8 1,8 -69,0 1,7 -5,6 0,6 2,1 250,0

Turkey 1,4 2,7 92,9 2,7 0,0 0,8 1,9 137,5

Lithuania 5,8 3,4 -41,4 2,6 -23,5 1,1 1,6 45,5

Turkmenistan 15,1 6,3 -58,3 4,1 -34,9 1,4 1,4 0,0

Latvia 2,8 3,3 17,9 3,4 3,0 1,6 1,2 -25,0

Egypt 6,8 8,0 17,6 11,5 43,8 1,7 1,0 -41,2

Uzbekistan 9,5 9,1 -4,2 4,6 -49,5 2,8 0,9 -67,9

United Kingdom 0,4 0,2 -50,0 0,1 -50,0 0,0 0,8 -

Other 62,3 53,0 -14,9 27,8 -47,5 13,3 8,5 -36,1

Total 328,4 173,4 -47,2 141,0 -18,7 47,0 60,9 29,6

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%



1

Component and spare parts export, 2013-2016 (January-June)


Components

2013

(January-

December),

mln USD

2014

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

December),

mln USD

Change, %

2015

(January-

June), mln

USD

2016

(January-

June), mln

USD

Change, %




53,0 23,0 -56,6 16,1 -30,0 6,9 9,4 36,8

Wheels and their parts 31,2 31,4 0,6 16,0 -48,9 8,9 9,0 1,7

Bodies (including cabs) 9,2 4,3 -53,3 21,6 401,3 4,0 8,6 114,1

Radiators and their parts 17,5 10,7 -38,9 8,1 -24,0 3,1 4,8 52,1

Brakes and their parts 30,5 14,0 -54,1 10,9 -21,8 4,3 4,2 -2,6

Suspension and its parts 31,0 14,4 -53,5 11,6 -19,4 3,8 4,1 8,8

Drive axles and dead axles and

their parts 30,5 13,0 -57,4 7,5 -42,5 2,5 3,5 39,4


Transmission and its parts 21,0 10,0 -52,4 10,3 2,6 2,1 1,7 -16,6

Mufflers and their parts 7,7 4,3 -44,2 2,6 -39,4 0,9 1,4 60,3

Steering wheels and their parts 15,0 4,5 -70,0 3,5 -22,3 0,8 1,1 45,9


Air bags and their parts 0,005 0,020 300,0 0,019 -5,0 0,007 0,017 155,5

Seat belts 0,020 0,028 40,0 0,036 29,2 0,012 0,013 3,9

Other parts and accessories 56,1 30,6 -45,5 22,1 -27,9 6,2 8,9 44,7

Total 328,4 173,4 -47,2 141,0 -18,7 47,0 60,9 29,4


1

Engine production

Appendix

Appendix


1

Engine Production

Production capacity

Name Capacity

8-valve ICE

16-valve ICE

Classical ICE

К4 ICE

JH/JR Gearbox

380 000

280 000

170 000

300 000

300 000

Production

Name 2013, units 2014, units Forecast for 2015

8-valve ICE 226 125 178 262 247 775

16-valve ICE 154 389 100 777 138 812

Classical ICE 141 972 105 534 104 606

К4M ICE - 23 268 101 863

H4M ICE - - 14 000

JH/JR Gearbox - 65 658 161 394

AVTOVAZ



1

AVTOVAZ – new projects


Region: Samara region

Petrol engine: 1.8 liters, 122 h.p., 16-valve

Production capacity: 60 000 per annum

SOP: March 2016

Application: Lada XRAY, Lada Largus, Lada Vesta, Chevrolet Niva (new

generation)

Region: Samara region

Petrol engine: 1.39 liters, 149.6 h.p., 16-valve turbo

SOP: 2018

Engine Production


1

Source : ZMZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research

ZMZ

Region: Nizhny Novgorod

Petrol engine: 4 - and 8-cylinder, Euro 0 – Euro 4

Diesel engine: 4-cylinder, Euro 2, Euro 4

Application: UAZ, GAZ, PAZ

Coming:

- petrol 4-cylinder ZMZ-40906.10, Euro 5 for UAZ vehicles,

- bi-fuel (gas-petrol) 8-cylinder ZMZ-5245.10 Euro 5 for PAZ buses,

- gas 4-cylinder ZMZ-409061.10, Euro 5 for LCV

Engine Production


1

Source : GAZ Group, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research

UMZ (GAZ Group)

Region: Ulyanovsk region

Petrol engine: UMZ-4216, EvoTech 2.7, 4-cylinder, Euro 0, Euro 3, Euro 4

Gas-petrol engine: UMZ-4216, EvoTech, 4-cylinder, Euro 4, Euro 5

Application: GAZelle, Sobol

Nizhegorodskie Motory (GAZ Group)

Region: Nizhny Novgorod region

Diesel engine: 4-, 6-cylinder, Euro 1 - Euro 4

Application: GAZ

Engine Production


1

Source : GAZ Group, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research

Avtodiesel (GAZ Group)

Region: Yaroslavl region

Diesel engine:

Family: medium in-line 4- and 6-cylinder YaMZ-530 136-350 h.p., Euro 4, Euro 5

Family: heavy in-line 6-cylinder YaMZ-650 311-412 h.p., Euro 4, Euro 5 (under Renault

Trucks licence)

Family: 6-, 8-, 12-cylinder, 150-5800 h.p., Euro 0 – Euro 4 V-engines

Gas engine:

- YaMZ-530 CNG, YaMZ-534 CNG, YaMZ-536 CNG, Euro 5

Application: trucks, buses, special purpose trucks

Contract engine:

- Daimler OM 646, 2.2 liters, 88-150 h.p., Euro 5

- SOP– 2013

Application: Mercedes-Benz Sprinter

Engine Production


1


KAMAZ

Region: Tatarstan

Diesel engine: 8-cylinder, 11.76 liters, 200-500 h.p., Euro 0, Евро 1, Euro 3, Euro 4

V-engines

Gas engine: 8-cylinder, 11.76 liters, 200-400 h.p., Euro 4 V-engines

Application: Trucks, KAMAZ special purpose trucks

Cummins KAMA

Region: Tatarstan

SOP: 2009

Diesel engine: 4.5 liters, 140-210 h.p. and 6.7 liters, 205-300 h.p., Euro 4, Euro 3

Capacity: 40 000

Application: Trucks, KAMAZ special purpose trucks

Operations: crankshaft, cylinder block heads casting

Localization: cylinder heads, crankshaft, flywheel, harness, air compressor

Suppliers: JV «Federal Mogul-Naberezhnye Chelny» («piston-finger» set), JV «ZF Kama»

(9-speed gearbox).

Engine Production


1

Engine localization


Region: Elabuga

Petrol engine: Duratec, 1.6 liters, 85 h.p., 105 h.p., 125 h.p.

Capacity: 105 000, potential: up to 200 000

Start of production: September 2015

Localization: 2015 - 45%

Suppliers: «RosALit» / «ZMZ» (engine block, cylinder head, crankshaft bearing

cap), Kostroma Autocomponent plant, Kostroma region (engine piston),

GAZ Group (crankshaft casting), spark plugs, 2016 – pistons, fittings, wires

Ford-Sollers


1

Engine localization


Volkswagen

Region: Kaluga

Start of production: September 2015

Petrol engine: series ЕА211, 1.6 liters

Annual capacity: 150 000

Operations: machining of engine block, cylinder head, crankshaft and engine assembly.

Localization: 30%

Suppliers: Nemak, Ulyanovsk region, (blanks of engine block and cylinder head),

RUSAL (aluminium), Fujikura, Republic of Chuvashia (cables)


www.napinfo.ru

www.abiz.ru

E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

Phone: +7 831 439 21 82

Fax: +7 831 434 53 94

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