Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association

Adelaide, 16 April 2007

The Future Environment for Energy Business

Jesse H. AusubelProgram for the Human Environment

The Rockefeller University, New York City

http://phe.rockefeller.edu

Acknowledgements:C. Marchetti, N. Victor, P. Waggoner, E. Yantovski

A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

Carbon Atoms per Hydrogen Atom in HydrocarbonsEvolution from Wood to Methane Decarbonizes

Source: Ausubel, 2007

(water removed; charcoal pure C)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

Source: Ausubel 2007, after Ausubel, 1996 and Marchetti, 1985

C:H

DecarbonizationEvolution of C:H Ratio in Global Fuel Mix

Wood C:H = 10:1

Coal C:H = 2:1

Oil C:H = 1:2

Methane C:H = 1:4 Methane Economy

Hydrogen Economy

NonFossil Hydrogen

When viewed as market substitution, decarbonization is a 300-year process for H to rise from 10% to 90% market share, midpoint 1935

Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

Decarbonization of Global Primary EnergyViewed as Declining Carbon Intensity of All Primary Energy

Carbon/Energykg /GJ

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

Fuel Mass per Energy of Hydrocarbonseconomies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density and thus decarbonization

Fuel/Energykg/GJ

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Brown

Coal B

Brown

Coal A

Firewoo

d

Black C

oal D

Black C

oal C

Black C

oal B

Black C

oal A

Crude

Oil L

HV

Crude

Oil H

HVLP

G

Natura

l Gas

Earth Luminosity 1996

Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain versionof the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System(DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans

J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7) Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp

Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004

US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range)M

iles

Year

Cars (+ Buses + Motorcycles)

Walking

Trains

Horses

Air

Total (average per decade)

Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989; US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2006

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000.01

0.1

1

10

100

J. Ausubel, P. Meyer, N. Victor, 2007

A spigot in the lower left might draw offthe carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004

Methane-fueled Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP)Temperature up to 1,500 C, pressure to 400 atm

Bankside Power Station, LondonOpened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000

Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10th the space

“Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares

100m tall

Source: Ausubel 2004

Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER

US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s

Dell laptop, 2004

Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant (date unknown)

Delivery of General Electric 480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000

                    

                                            

                 

J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004

Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland

A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

Shelf break: Continental marginsthe methane frontier?

Shelf break: Continental marginsthe methane frontier?

Gulf of Mexico Census of Marine LifeGulf of Mexico Census of Marine Life Expedition to Deep Slope 2006Expedition to Deep Slope 2006

Ian MacDonaldIan MacDonaldBruce Strickrott Bruce Strickrott AquaPix, Bob CarneyAquaPix, Bob Carney Ian MacDonaldIan MacDonald

First systematic exploration of First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m Source: ChEssdeeper than 1000m Source: ChEss

Storegga, Norway, 120 km offshore, 1000 m deepOrmen Lange gas field, without conventional offshore platformsProduction expected October 2007

Census of Marine Life Arctic Jelliesphotographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft

Census of Marine Life Arctic Jelliesphotographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft

Garbage collected in 4000 m depthin Ierapetra Basin south of Crete Source: CEDAMAR

There are no ocean deserts! Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.

There are no ocean deserts! Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.

USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003semi-log scale

Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ion

s o

f c

ub

ic f

eet

104

105

106

Year

Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003

1

10

10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Annual production, millions of cubic feet

2000

US

$/10

e3 c

ub

ic f

eet

J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005

USA: Fossil Fuel Production Prices and H2 Price Estimates, 1970-2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

'200

0 U

S D

olla

rs p

er G

J

Coal

Gas

Crude Oil

H2

Motor Gasoline

Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.00E+08

fuel mass per energy including nuclear fuelseconomies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density, thus decarbonization

& thus finally nuclear sources 10,000 X more compact than hydrocarbons

Uranium

Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

100

10-1

10-2

10-3

10-4

10-5

10

1Fuel/Energykg/GJ

To produce with solar cells the energy generated in 1 liter of coreof a nuclear reactor, one needs ~ 1 hectare (10,000 square meters) of solar cells!

Renewable Energy Production Intensitiesin watts per square meter, a story of weakness• Hydro:

– Hoover Dam 0.0014

– Hydro: All US dams 0.0049

– Hydro: Ontario 0.012

• Biomass:

– ethanol from corn (net) 0.047

– New England forest 0.12

– Ocean biomass 0.6

– Corn (whole plant) 0.75

– Sugar cane (intensively farmed) 3.7

• Wind 1.2

• Solar thermal (actual) 3.2

Sources: Ausubel, Hayden

Spatial scale: Nuclear and WindCalifornia Coast

10% Wind Equivalent

5 Miles

Diablo Canyon

2200 MWPower Plant

Source: P. Grant

Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007, Nature magazine, Stofan et al.

2017: Australian Methane Production and Exploration Association

Text and figures posted at http://phe.rockefeller.edu