Australia Hotels Q2 2016 Asian tourist growth boosting ... · AUSTRALIA HOTELS Chart 9: Visitor...
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MARKETVIEW Asian tourist growth boosting hotel performance Australia Hotels Q2 2016 Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 1 $184 *Arrows indicate change from previous year. Chart 1: Asian Visitor Growth $139 75.7% Key Points Annual RevPAR growth for the year ending June 2016 was 3.0% reaching $139 ADR increased 1.7% to reach $184 for the year ending June 2016 National occupancy jumped to 75.7% recording a growth of 1.3% Top performers were Cairns and Hobart who are registering 11.1% and 10.7% increases in RevPAR for the year ending June 2016 Visitor arrivals reached record highs of 7.1m, an increase of 9% on 2015 and domestic overnight trips were up 8% to 89m Spending by international visitors in the year to March 2016 reached a record high of $25.4bn, up 18% on 2015, whilst overnight spend on domestic trips increased 5% to $58bn Sales volumes so far this year are just shy of $1.3 billion 7.1 million +8% CONTINUED STRONG GROWTH FROM THE ASIAN TOURIST MARKET Source: TRA, CBRE Research 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 China Singapore Malaysia Korea India Hong Kong Taiwan Visitors 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Transcript of Australia Hotels Q2 2016 Asian tourist growth boosting ... · AUSTRALIA HOTELS Chart 9: Visitor...
MARKETVIEW
Asian tourist growth boosting
hotel performance
Australia Hotels Q2 2016
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 1
$184
*Arrows indicate change from previous year.
Chart 1: Asian Visitor Growth
$139 75.7%
Key Points
Annual RevPAR growth for the year ending June
2016 was 3.0% reaching $139
ADR increased 1.7% to reach $184 for the year
ending June 2016
National occupancy jumped to 75.7% recording
a growth of 1.3%
Top performers were Cairns and Hobart who are
registering 11.1% and 10.7% increases in
RevPAR for the year ending June 2016
Visitor arrivals reached record highs of 7.1m, an
increase of 9% on 2015 and domestic overnight
trips were up 8% to 89m
Spending by international visitors in the year to
March 2016 reached a record high of $25.4bn,
up 18% on 2015, whilst overnight spend on
domestic trips increased 5% to $58bn
Sales volumes so far this year are just shy of $1.3
billion
7.1 million +8%
CONTINUED STRONG GROWTH FROM THE
ASIAN TOURIST MARKET
Source: TRA, CBRE Research
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
China Singapore Malaysia Korea India Hong Kong Taiwan
Vis
itors
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MARKETVIEW
NATIONAL HOTEL PERFORMANCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE
Q1 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 2
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
OUTLOOK POSITIVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF 2016
Chart 3: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Chart 2: Occupancy and ADR Change – Q2 2016 vs Q2 2015
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research
RevPAR growth
RevPAR decline
Adelaide
Brisbane
Cairns
Canberra/
ACT
Darwin
Gold Coast
Hobart
Melbourne
Perth
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
%∆
AD
R v
s L
ast Year
%∆ OCC vs Last Year
GROWTH
DECLINE
IN TRANSITION
IN TRANSITION
Sydney
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
S
MARKETVIEW
FIRST HALF OF 2016 RELATIVELY QUIET
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 3
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Chart 6: National Supply Pipeline – opening before January 2019
Source: CBRE Research
Source: CBRE Research
Table 1: Key Transactions YTD 2016
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Adelaide Brisbane City Cairns Canberra /
ACT
Darwin Gold Coast Hobart Melbourne City Perth City Sydney City
Num
ber of keys
Under Construction Likely to Proceed Permanent Withdrawal
HOTEL LOCATION
SALE
DATE PRICE (m) KEYS
Clifton Suites Canberra Apr-16 $65 153
Hotel Grand Chancellor Surfers Paradise May-16 $80 408
The Ribbon Darling Harbour Sydney Jun-16 $700 561
Mercure Parramatta Sydney Jun-16 $40 165
Source: CBRE Research
Chart 7:Total Hotel Sales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
2016
Tota
l H
ote
l Sale
s (
$m
)
Sales Volume ($m) Number of Hotels Sold
MARKETVIEW
26%
9%
7%
6%4%4%
4%
4%
36%
China
United Kingdom
New Zealand
USA
Singapore
Malaysia
Korea
Hong Kong
All Other
8%
15%
10%
9%
4%3%7%3%
40%
HOTEL VISITOR NIGHTS CONTINUE TO
RISE
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 4
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
CHINESE TOURISTS NOW ACCOUNT FOR
26% OF INTERNATIONAL VISITOR
SPEND
Chart 4: Share of International Spend – YE March 2009 vs YE March 2016
Source: TRA, CBRE Research
Source: TRA, CBRE Research Q2 2016
Chart 5: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced
Apartments (rolling annual)
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
Vis
itors
nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
2007 2016
MARKETVIEW
INCREASE IN HOTEL PERFORMANCE
UPTICK IN TOURIST NUMBERS FOR 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 5
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Chart 9: Visitor Nights in Hotels , Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Chart 8: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 2: Supply Pipeline
Property Development
Type
Quality Number of
Keys
Current
Status
Opening
Date
Peppers Adelaide
HotelRebrand
5
Star202
Recently
Opened
September
2015
Holiday Inn
ExpressNew Build
4
Star245
Likely to
Proceed
April
2017
Aloft Adelaide New Build4.5
Star200
Likely to
Proceed
January
2018
Lester Hotel New Build4.5
Star244
Likely to
Proceed
January
2018
MINIMAL SUPPLY INCREASES
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
$151 $115 76.3%Adelaide
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
FURTHER DECREASES IN PERFORMANCE
SLIGHT GROWTH IN TOURIST VOLUMES
FOR 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 6
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Chart 11: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Chart 10: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 3: Supply Pipeline
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
$168 $121 72.4%
Brisbane
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Property Development
Type
Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening Date
Richmont Hotel by
MantraNew Build
4
Star108
Recently
Opened
May
2016
Holiday Inn
ExpressNew Build
4
Star226
Under
Construction
September
2016
W Brisbane New Build5
Star305
Under
Construction
April
2018
Westin Brisbane New Build5
Star286
Under
Construction
November
2018
DEVELOPMENT CYCLE NEARING PEAK
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 7
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
$134 $111 83.3%Cairns
CONTINUED PERFORMANCE GROWTH
OVERSEAS VISITORS UP FOR 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 13: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
NO NEW SUPPLY ON THE HORIZON
Chart 12: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 8
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 4: Supply Pipeline
Property Development Type Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening Date
Little National
HotelNew Build
4
Star120
Recently
Opened
September
2015
Adobe
NarrabundahNew Build
4
Star86
Recently
Opened
September
2015
Vibe Hotel
CanberraNew Build
4.5
Star191
Recently
Opened
November
2015
Mantra Canberra Redevelopment4
Star176
Under
Construction
February
2017
$164 $119 72.8%
Canberra/ACT
MIXED RESULTS FOR HOTELS
SUBSTANTIAL TOURIST INCREASES
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 15: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
LIMITED NEW SUPPLY IN SHORT TERM
Chart 14: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 9
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 5: Supply Pipeline
Property Development Type Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening Date
Novotel Darwin Rebrand4
Star136
Recently
Opened
March
2016
Mecure Darwin
AirportRebrand
4
Star181
Recently
Opened
March
2016
Mercure Darwin
AirportExtension
4
Star105
Recently
Opened
March
2016
85 Mitchell Street New Build TBA 85Likely to
Proceed
January
2017
$158 $104 66.1%Darwin
DOWNTURN CONTINUES FOR HOTELS
DECLINE IN VISITOR NIGHTS FOR 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 17: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
OVERSUPPLY IN THE MARKET
Chart 16: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 10
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Property Development
Type
Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening Date
Jupiter’s Casino
HotelExtension
5
Star80
Under
Construction
November
2017
Jewel Luxury
ResortNew Build
5
Star153
Under
Construction
December
2018
$178 $131 73.4%Gold Coast
STRONG PERFORMANCE GROWTH
OVERSEAS VISITORS UP FOR 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 19: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
LIMITED SUPPLY IN PIPELINE
Chart 18: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Table 6: Supply Pipeline
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 11
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 7: Supply Pipeline
Property Development Type Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening Date
Macquarie Wharf
Shed HotelNew Build
4.5
Star114
Under
Construction
December
2016
Crowne Plaza
HobartRedevelopment
4.5
Star187
Under
Construction
October
2017
HOMO at MONA New Build4
Star160 Mooted
May
2017
Vibe Hotel
HobartNew Build
4
Star120
Likely to
Proceed
May
2018
$168 $138 82.3%Hobart
OPERATING IN PEAK CONDITIONS
SLIGHT DECREASES IN TOURISM 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 21: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
NEW SUPPLY TO PUT PRESSURE ON RATES
Chart 20: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 12
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 8: Supply Pipeline
Property Development Type Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening Date
QT Hotel
MelbourneNew Build
4
Star188
Under
Construction
September
2016
Aloft Melbourne New Build4.5
Star312
Likely to
Proceed
August
2017
Parkroyal
DocklandsNew Build
5
Star281
Likely to
Proceed
July
2018
Four Points
DocklandsNew Build
4
Star320
Likely to
Proceed
August
2018
$186 $155 83.3%Melbourne
OVERALL POSITIVE RESULTS
MINOR DECREASES IN TOURISM IN 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 23: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
NEW SUPPLY ON THE WAY
Chart 22: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 13
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 9: Supply Pipeline
Property Development
Type
Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening
Date
Sage Hotel West
PerthRedevelopment
4
Star94
Recently
Opened
May
2016
Quest Fremantle New Build4
Star73
Recently
Opened
June
2016
Quest Harbour
VillageExtension
4
Star42
Recently
Opened
June
2016
Crown Towers
BurswoodNew Build
5
Star500
Under
Construction
Feb
2017
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN SUPPLY
$192 $155 81.0%Perth
MARKET SLIDE CONTINUES
DOMESTIC VISITORS RETURN IN 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 25: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced Apartments
(rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Chart 24: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Q2 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 14
AUSTRALIA HOTELS
Source: STR Global, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
Table 10: Supply Pipeline
Property Development Type Quality Number of
Keys
Current Status Opening
Date
Pullman Sydney
AirportNew Build
5
Star229
Recently
Opened
June
2016
Altitude
ParramattaNew Build TBA 266
Recently
Opened
June
2016
Park Royal
ParramattaExtension
5
Star90
Recently
Opened
June
2016
Alpha Hotel Eastern
CreekExtension
4.5
Star60
Recently
Opened
July
2016
$217 $185 85.4%Sydney
CONTINUED PERFORMANCE GROWTH
VISITOR LEVELS UP FOR 2016
•
•
•
•
•
Chart 27: Visitor Nights in Hotels, Motels & Serviced
Apartments (rolling annual)
Source: TRA, CBRE Research, Q2 2016
LIMITED IMPACT OF NEW SUPPLY
Chart 26: Hotel Performance KPIs y-o-y Change
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Vis
itor nig
hts
(0
00
s)
International Domestic Total
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
% C
hange
Occupancy Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
SS
MARKETVIEW
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness.
This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior
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