Austin Residential Sales Report | September 2011

12
Residential Sales Report A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE AUSTIN BOARD OF REALTORS® September 2011 Quick Facts  Market Overview 2 New Listings 3 Pending Sales 4 Closed Sales 5 Days On Market Until Sale 6 Median Sales Price 7  Average Sales Price 8 9 Housing Affordability Index 10 Inventory of Homes for Sale 11 Months Supply of Inventory 12 Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported.Current as of October 10, 2011. All data from ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. - 1.4% Change in Median Sales Price Click on desired metric to jump to that page. People talk about the national housing market like it’s some static thing, like a toaster. The thing is, there is no national housing market. Just like there is no national weather forecast. That doesn't mean national averages don't have their place, but you don’t grab a raincoat and an umbrella in Miami based on the weather in Seattle. Like the weather, all real estate is local. As we embark on the fourth and final quarter of 2011, let’s take a look at our local forecast. New Listings in the Austin region decreased 7.5 percent to 2,482. Pending Sales were up 32.1 percent to 1,845. Inventory levels shrank 24.8 percent to 9,959 units, a positive supply-side trend that should bring additional stability. Prices were fairly stable. The Median Sales Price decreased 1.4 percent to $186,000. Days on Market decreased 0.3 percent to 77 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 28.2 percent to 5.6 months.  A dash of uplifting economic news was overshadowed by debt clouds from the ongoing turmoil in Greece and the threat of bank contagion. Manufacturing activity, construction spending and overall job growth all picked up in September, temporarily calming fears of the dreaded double-dip storm. As for the lending climate, the Fed's recent "Operation Twist" helped push mortgage rates to record lows – under 4.0 percent for the first time ever. Despite the cheap money, "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!" should still be the battle cry. - 24.8% Change in Inventory + 19.6% Change in Closed Sales Percent of List Price Received

Transcript of Austin Residential Sales Report | September 2011

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Residential Sales ReportA RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE AUSTIN BOARD OF REALTORS®

September 2011 Quick Facts

 

Market Overview 2

New Listings 3

Pending Sales 4

Closed Sales 5

Days On Market Until Sale 6

Median Sales Price 7 Average Sales Price 8

9

Housing Affordability Index 10

Inventory of Homes for Sale 11

Months Supply of Inventory 12

Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported.Current as of October 10, 2011. All data from ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.

- 1.4%

Change in

Median Sales Price

Click on desired metric to jump to that page.

People talk about the national housing market like it’s some static thing, like a

toaster. The thing is, there is no national housing market. Just like there is no

national weather forecast. That doesn't mean national averages don't have their

place, but you don’t grab a raincoat and an umbrella in Miami based on the

weather in Seattle. Like the weather, all real estate is local. As we embark on the

fourth and final quarter of 2011, let’s take a look at our local forecast.

New Listings in the Austin region decreased 7.5 percent to 2,482. Pending

Sales were up 32.1 percent to 1,845. Inventory levels shrank 24.8 percent to

9,959 units, a positive supply-side trend that should bring additional stability.

Prices were fairly stable. The Median Sales Price decreased 1.4 percent to

$186,000. Days on Market decreased 0.3 percent to 77 days. Absorption rates

improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 28.2 percent to 5.6 months.

 A dash of uplifting economic news was overshadowed by debt clouds from the

ongoing turmoil in Greece and the threat of bank contagion. Manufacturing

activity, construction spending and overall job growth all picked up in

September, temporarily calming fears of the dreaded double-dip storm. As for

the lending climate, the Fed's recent "Operation Twist" helped push mortgage

rates to record lows – under 4.0 percent for the first time ever. Despite the

cheap money, "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!" should still be the battle cry.

- 24.8%

Change in

Inventory

+ 19.6%

Change in

Closed Sales

Percent of List Price Received

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Market OverviewKey market metrics for the current month and year-to-date.

Key Metrics Historical Sparklines 9-2010 9-2011 + / – YTD 2010 YTD 2011 + / –

 All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2

7.8

180 + 12.1%

- 24.8%

- 28.2%

9,959

5.6

161

--

-- --

--

--Months Supply

of Homes for Sale

Inventory of Homes for Sale

- 1.4% $188,900 $190,000

- 0.7%

- 0.3% 69 80 + 14.9%

+ 0.6%

+ 1.2% 93.7% 93.1%

- 13.4%

1,397 1,845 + 32.1% 16,243 17,549 + 8.0%

28,6102,683 2,482 - 7.5% 33,045

1,425 1,705 + 19.6% 15,803

New Listings

Pending Sales

Closed Sales

91.9% 92.9%

Housing Affordability Index

Days on Market Until Sale

Median Sales Price

 Average Sales Price

Percent of Original

List Price Received

$241,609

16,400 + 3.8%

161

13,237

77 77

177 + 10.2%

--

$244,950 $252,268 + 3.0%

$188,731 $186,000

$246,668 + 2.1%

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

9-2008 9-2009 9-2010 9-2011

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New ListingsA count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 3,015 2,543 -15.7%

November 2,483 2,083 -16.1%

December 1,969 1,795 -8.8%

January 3,318 2,784 -16.1%

February 3,493 2,668 -23.6%

March 4,679 3,968 -15.2%

 April 4,960 3,753 -24.3%

May 3,464 3,542 +2.3%

June 3,796 3,550 -6.5%

July 3,674 3,162 -13.9% August 2,978 2,701 -9.3%

September 2,683 2,482 -7.5%

12-Month Avg 3,376 2,919 -13.5%

 All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3

3,015

2,6832,482

2009 2010 2011

September

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical New Listing Activity

30,60033,045

28,610

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

-13.4%-11.0% -7.5% +8.0%

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Pending SalesA count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 1,839 1,424 -22.6%

November 1,251 1,293 +3.4%

December 1,108 1,164 +5.1%

January 1,479 1,450 -2.0%

February 1,795 1,570 -12.5%

March 2,429 2,042 -15.9%

 April 2,872 2,106 -26.7%

May 1,444 2,258 +56.4%

June 1,659 2,205 +32.9%

July 1,640 2,134 +30.1% August 1,528 1,939 +26.9%

September 1,397 1,845 +32.1%

12-Month Avg 1,703 1,786 +4.8%

 All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4

1,922

1,397

1,845

2009 2010 2011

September

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Pending Sales Activity

16,93116,243

17,549

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

+8.0%-27.3% +32.1% -4.1%

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Closed SalesA count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 1,969 1,346 -31.6%

November 1,745 1,340 -23.2%

December 1,519 1,573 +3.6%

January 993 1,059 +6.6%

February 1,264 1,225 -3.1%

March 2,011 1,781 -11.4%

 April 2,252 1,857 -17.5%

May 2,307 2,082 -9.8%

June 2,211 2,354 +6.5%

July 1,654 2,167 +31.0% August 1,686 2,170 +28.7%

September 1,425 1,705 +19.6%

12-Month Avg 1,753 1,722 -0.1%

 All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5

1,959

1,425

1,705

2009 2010 2011

September

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Closed Sales Activity

15,678 15,80316,400

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

+3.8%-27.3% +19.6% +0.8%

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Days on Market Until SaleAverage number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 72 88 +22.8%

November 75 86 +15.0%

December 79 92 +15.6%

January 79 88 +11.9%

February 72 93 +28.6%

March 69 92 +32.9%

 April 66 81 +22.2%

May 62 76 +22.1%

June 67 72 +8.4%

July 70 74 +5.8% August 72 76 +6.1%

September 77 77 -0.3%

12-Month Avg 71 82 +15.3%

 All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6

69

77 77

2009 2010 2011

September

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Days on Market Until Sale

7669

80

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

+14.9%+12.3% -0.3% -8.4%

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Median Sales PriceMedian price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October $179,000 $190,000 +6.1%

November $174,000 $179,500 +3.2%

December $186,000 $189,000 +1.6%

January $175,000 $184,500 +5.4%

February $180,745 $185,000 +2.4%

March $178,000 $182,000 +2.2%

 April $185,000 $189,900 +2.6%

May $186,000 $192,000 +3.2%

June $198,000 $198,000 0.0%

July $211,555 $190,000 -10.2% August $194,000 $191,500 -1.3%

September $188,731 $186,000 -1.4%

12-Mo. Median $185,195 $189,900 +2.5%

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$183,000$188,731 $186,000

2009 2010 2011

September

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Median Sales Price

$186,000 $188,900 $190,000

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

+0.6%+3.1% -1.4% +1.6%

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Average Sales PriceAverage sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October $232,209 $255,409 +10.0%

November $231,094 $243,559 +5.4%

December $248,772 $245,024 -1.5%

January $233,052 $241,053 +3.4%

February $233,103 $237,568 +1.9%

March $230,812 $241,053 +4.4%

 April $228,668 $260,093 +13.7%

May $236,487 $260,126 +10.0%

June $265,235 $262,811 -0.9%

July $275,446 $254,955 -7.4% August $257,321 $251,288 -2.3%

September $241,609 $246,668 +2.1%

12-Month Avg $242,885 $251,356 +3.5%

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$234,565 $241,609 $246,668

2009 2010 2011

September

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Average Sales Price

$236,315$244,950 $252,268

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

+ 3.0%+ 3.0% + 2.1% + 3.7%

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Percent of Original List Price Received

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 93.8% 91.2% -2.7%

November 93.9% 91.3% -2.8%

December 93.1% 91.5% -1.8%

January 93.1% 91.6% -1.7%

February 93.5% 92.3% -1.3%

March 94.4% 92.6% -1.9%

 April 94.8% 93.4% -1.4%

May 94.8% 93.4% -1.4%

June 94.1% 93.8% -0.3%

July 93.1% 93.4% +0.4% August 92.4% 93.2% +0.8%

September 91.9% 92.9% +1.2%

12-Month Avg 93.7% 92.7% -1.0%

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Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month,

not accounting for seller concessions.

94.0% 91.9% 92.9%

2009 2010 2011

September

91.0%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

97.0%

98.0%

99.0%

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Percent of Original List Price Received

93.3% 93.7% 93.1%

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

-0.7%-2.2% +1.2% +0.5%

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Housing Affordability Index

 

MonthPrior

 Year

Current

 Year + / –

October 159 161 +1.3%

November 165 170 +2.7%

December 151 160 +6.2%

January 162 168 +4.1%

February 157 167 +6.3%

March 160 171 +7.1%

 April 154 166 +7.7%

May 154 168 +8.9%

June 149 165 +10.4%July 144 170 +18.2%

 August 157 174 +10.7%

September 161 180 +12.1%

12-Month Avg 156 168 +8.0%

This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary

to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

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156 161

180

2009 2010 2011

September

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Housing Affordability Index

154161

177

2009 2010 2011

Year To Date

+10.2%+3.2% +12.1% +4.6%

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Inventory of Homes for SaleThe number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 11,162 12,402 +11.1%

November 10,869 11,333 +4.3%

December 9,870 10,001 +1.3%

January 10,509 10,082 -4.1%

February 11,170 10,267 -8.1%

March 12,198 11,159 -8.5%

 April 13,096 11,830 -9.7%

May 13,775 12,036 -12.6%

June 14,340 12,086 -15.7%

July 14,637 11,779 -19.5% August 13,956 10,970 -21.4%

September 13,237 9,959 -24.8%

12-Month Avg 12,402 11,159 -9.0%

 All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11

11,526

13,237

9,959

2009 2010 2011

September

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale

-24.8%+3.2%

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Months Supply of InventoryThe inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

 Month

Prior

 Year

Current

 Year+ / –

October 6.4 7.4 +16.9%

November 6.2 6.8 +9.8%

December 5.6 6.0 +6.4%

January 5.9 6.0 +1.5%

February 6.2 6.2 +0.2%

March 6.6 6.9 +4.4%

 April 6.8 7.6 +11.8%

May 7.4 7.4 +0.3%

June 7.8 7.2 -7.9%

July 8.2 6.9 -16.0% August 8.0 6.3 -21.5%

September 7.8 5.6 -28.2%

12-Month Avg 6.9 6.7 -3.1%

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6.8

7.8

5.6

2009 2010 2011

September

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011

Historical Months Supply of Inventory

-24.8%+3.2%