Austin Ctea Expo
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Solar Industry Market Projections and Lessons Learned Austin CTEA Expo Iga Hallberg - Vice President Business Development
description
I recently presented on The Growing Competitiveness of Solar Power
Transcript of Austin Ctea Expo
Solar Industry Market Projections and Lessons Learned
Austin CTEA Expo
Iga Hallberg -Vice President Business Development
Energy Generation and the Terawatt (TW) Challenge• Humanity uses 12 TW of power today
– 1 TW = 1,000 GW (Gigawatts)
• World will need 15 TW by 2012
• Only 5 known sources of energy are available on a TW scale*– Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, gas
– Nuclear fuels
– Solar• Only inherently distributed solution
• No fuel cost
*Prof. Nathan Lewis, http://nsl.caltech.edu/
Global solar resources
3
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
E
2011
E
2012
E
32%45% 35% 29% 25%
42%
6% 9%
17%
22%
26%
Inst
alla
tion
s (M
W)
Germany Spain Italy ROE Japan S. Korea China ROW US
Policy Driven DemandUS % growth
Source: Barclays, IEA, Navigant
Historical Trends• 49% growth • 45% growth ex-Spain 2008
0%
50%
100%
150%
YOY Global Demand Growth
German FITSpanish
RDC
Recession
US ITC
Growing Competitiveness of Solar
Source: McKinsey.(1) kWh = kilowatt hour; kWp = kilowatt peak; TWh = terawatt hour; Wp = watt peak; the annual solar yield is the amount of electricity
generated by a south-facing 1 kW peak-rated module in 1 year, or the equivalent number of hours that the module operates at peak rating.(2) Tier 4 and 5 are names of regulated forms of electricity generation and usage.(3) Unsubsidized cost to end users of solar energy equals cost of conventional electricity.
Annual solar energy yield (kWh/kWp(1))
Grid Parity as of(3)
Today
Size of electricity market TWh a year(1)
Aver
age
pow
er p
rice
per h
ouse
hold
($/k
Wh(
1))
1,000 1,500 2,000500
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
Cos
t per
wat
t at p
eak
hour
s ($
/Wp(
1))
China
India
Greece
Texas
Australia
SpainNew YorkFranceFinland
Japan
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
Denmark
California Tier 4(2)
2020
California Tier 5(2)
Hawaii
Italy
California
$8.0
$6.0
$4.0
$2.0
Norway
United Kingdom
South Korea
Northern Suburb of Tokyo
Source: Christopher O’Brien of Sharp Solar at EESI climate change meeting 2005
Example of successful long term solar incentives
In deregulated regions, fuel price depends on the marginal fuel
Marginal Fuel Type for Electricity Production
RMP
Source: Energy Velocity, NERC ES&D
Hydro
Coal
Natural Gas
Primary Fuel Type
Petro
Discussion
Prices of the fuel type that sets the marginal price of electricity most impact electricity price
Natural gas sets the price for electricity in the Northeast, California, and Texas
This coincides with the regions with the highest average electricity prices and regions with deregulated markets
Deregulated Regions
Solar Systems Around the WorldUtility Scale Commercial Roof Top Systems
Google HQ - CaliforniaSolar farm - Germany
Austin City HallResidential roof - California
Building Integrated
Hong Kong Science Center
11
Atlantic City Convention Center, NJ2.3MW Largest rooftop solar PV project in North America
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Example: Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain
24h-Energy Profile
0:00
6:00
12:0
0
18:0
0
24:0
0
Elec
tric
al E
nerg
y [a
rb. u
nits
]
Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff
Electricity supplied by Utility
Fed-InEnergy
Solar Energy
Energy consumption of building
Electricity supplied by Utility
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH
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Opportunities for a More Efficient Products and Value Chain
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Customer
Installer
Power Purchase Agreement
Financing
If buy power
LLC
Financing
If own system
Integrator/ System Designer
Future Integrated Products
Opportunity for Integration & System
Cost Reduction
Opportunity forPre-engineered
SolutionsPV Module
Mfgr
Mounting & Wiring
System Mfgr
Inverter Mfgr
Solar Product Availability• Crystalline Silicon ~ 18% conversion efficiency
• Multi-crystalline Silicon ~ 14%
• Amorphous Silicon ~ 6-8%– Flexible and rigid
• Cadmium Telluride ~ 9-10%– First Solar capturing significant market share for
central power applications
• CIS/CIGS ~10-12%– New commercial availability entering the market
in 2010
85% of current market
15% of current marketbut fastest growing segment
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Chronology of Polysilicon Dynamics –2006-2009
Source: Barclays
Competitive Manufacturing Cost Potential is Key!
Source: Greentech Media and Prometheus Institute.
$1.2
6
$0.9
8
$0.8
9
$0.8
0
$61
$174
$100
$54$76
$105
$52
$65
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2008E 2010E 2012E 2015E
Asia Multi-Si Euro Multi-Si Integ. Multi-Si Super Mono Si a-Si CdTe CIGS
Asia Poly($/kg)
Euro Poly($/kg)
HelioVolt Confidential and Proprietary 18
Thin Film Process vs. AlternativesHelioVolt Process
Glass In Module Out
GlassPreparation
FASST® CIGSProcess
ModuleFormation
Final Assembly& Test
Competitors’ CIGS Cell-Based Processes
Substrate In Module Out
SubstratePreparation
CIGSProcess
Contact & GridFormation
Cell Cut & Sort Cell Stringing
Silicon Process
Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Module
Final Assembly& Test
Source: Wall Street research.
Final Assembly& Test
ModuleFormation
FASST® CIGSProcess
GlassPreparation
HelioVolt Module Production Process
Glass In
Module Out
Polysilicon
Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel SystemIngotPolysilicon
Value Chain Cost Distribution
Raw material, processing
Cell, assembly, framing
Labor, WiringMountingInverters
30%20%
50%
Typical US Solar System Cost Allocation by Category
Chinese Tier 1 Module ASPs, 2007 – 2010 ($/W)
Source: Barclays
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Module Manufacturers’ Shipment Trends
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1Q09A 2Q09A 3Q09A 4Q09A 1Q10E 2Q10E 3Q10E 4Q10E
Chinese Total
US Total Modules
Barclays Capital Research
• Only Sharp was in the top 5 just 3 years ago
THE NEXT 5 YEARS…
Trend to watch - Outsourcing
• iSuppli predicts over 1GW of modules will be produced by contract manufacturers
• Flextronics recently announced a number of major deals:– Q Cells – 200MW contract for production in Malaysia
– SunPower – 75MW contract for production in Milpitas
– Enphase – additional manufacturing contract added to existing relationship to build micro-inverters in Canada
• For mature technology:– Can reduce cost and CapEx
– Meets local manufacturing content guidelines • required for Ontario feed-in-tariff
Current Module ASP Forecast to 2012
Source: Greentech/ Prometheus
When one constraint goes away, equilibrium can radically shift
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Source: Greentech Media
Today, large markets at grid parity
• NREL study looked at 1000 cities nationwide
• Meaningful population centers at or near grid parity
2015 with 0.5% annual rate hike
• Includes:– ITC only
– Falling system prices
• Almost half of market below grid parity
• 98% within 5 cents/ kWh
2015 with 1% annual rate hike
Includes:ITC only
Falling system prices
Two-thirds of market below grid parity
99% within 5 cents/ kWh
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