Aussie Housing Market

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    Rismark International Funds Management Ltd ABN 15 114 530 139, AFS licence number 293881This presentation is strictly private and confidential and should not be distributed or duplicated under any circumstances

    Pr esentation toMacquarie Corporate Dayin Singapore & Hong K ong

    Christopher R.E. Joye

    Managing DirectorRismark International

    September 2010Strictly Private & Confidential

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    Agenda

    1. About Rismark

    2. Introduction

    3. Have Australian House Prices Risen Too Rapidly?

    4. International Comparisons

    5. Were the Real Bubbles in Equities (shhh!)?

    6. What is Happening to the Aussie Housing Market Now?

    7. Solid Underlying Fundamentals

    8. How Vulnerable are Australian Borrowers?9. Investment Solutions for those that want to Hedge or Go Long

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    1. About Rismar k

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    1. About Rismar k

    Partnered with Australias leading data company, RP Data Ltd (ASX: RPX)

    Australias leading residential real estate research & investment business

    Awarded 15x patents in Australia, US and Singapore Hedonic house price indices

    Automated property valuation models

    A range of investment solutions

    Listed and OTC house price index hedge/shorts

    Listed and OTC house price index longs

    Direct longs

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    2. Introdu ction

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    2. Why is Aussie Housing Mar ket Important?

    At $3.5 trillion, housing is Australias most valuable asset-class

    2.5x size of Aussie equities market ($1.4 trillion)

    Biggest source of household wealth (c. 61%) Most important bank balance-sheet asset

    $1 trillion of residential mortgages on bank b/s

    62% of bank assets are residential loans

    Australia has very concentrated banking system

    Four majors control c.83% of bank residential credit

    Four majors currently AA rated (only 16 AA rated (S&P) or better banks in world)

    Australian banks heavily reliant on wholesale funding

    Very high 120% loan-to-deposit ratio

    Housing is Australias biggest potential source of financial stability risk

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    2. Popular Trade: Short Aussie Banks & Aussie House Pr ices

    The Economist newspaper:

    2010: Australian housing 61.1% over-valued

    2010: Australian property is the most overvalued of any of the 20 countries we track Jeremy Grantham , GMO:

    2010: Australian housing is a time bomb

    2010:You are at near 7.5 times family income which suggests you are 2x size you should be

    Gerard M inack, Morgan Stanley:

    2010: Australias debt-fuelled housing market remains a major macro risk

    2010:House prices are around 40% above fair valuehousing is a bubble

    Assoc. Prof. Steve Keen, Aussie Rou bini-wan nabe:

    2008: Price of housing is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years

    2010: Expects to see an an accelerating rate of decline in [Australian] house prices now

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    3. Have Australian House Pr ices Risen Too Rapidly?

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    3. Dwelling Pr ices Tracked Disposable Incom es 1:1 Last 7 Year s

    Australian Disposable Hou sehold Incomes vs.Capital City and Rest of State H ousing Costs

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    Dec-03

    Mar-04

    Jun-04

    Sep-04

    Dec-04

    Mar-05

    Jun-05

    Sep-05

    Dec-05

    Mar-06

    Jun-06

    Sep-06

    Dec-06

    Mar-07

    Jun-07

    Sep-07

    Dec-07

    Mar-08

    Jun-08

    Sep-08

    Dec-08

    Mar-09

    Jun-09

    Sep-09

    Dec-09

    Mar-10

    RP Data-Rismark Capital City Hedonic Dwelling Prices

    RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic House Prices

    ABS Disposable Household Incomes (per h/hold)

    Source: RP Data-Rismark

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    Risma rk Aus tralian All Regions Dw elling Price-to-Incom e Ratio Index:

    0x

    1x

    2x

    3x

    4x

    5x

    6x

    7x

    8x

    Mar-93

    Sep-93

    Mar-94

    Sep-94

    Mar-95

    Sep-95

    Mar-96

    Sep-96

    Mar-97

    Sep-97

    Mar-98

    Sep-98

    Mar-99

    Sep-99

    Mar-00

    Sep-00

    Mar-01

    Sep-01

    Mar-02

    Sep-02

    Mar-03

    Sep-03

    Mar-04

    Sep-04

    Mar-05

    Sep-05

    Mar-06

    Sep-06

    Mar-07

    Sep-07

    Mar-08

    Sep-08

    Mar-09

    Sep-09

    Mar-10

    Rismark All Regions Trimmed Mean Dwelling Price-to-Income RatioRismark All Regions Median Dwelling Price-to-Income Ratio

    3. Jerem y Grantham is W ron g: the Pr ice-to-Income Ratio is just 4.6x

    RBA: the ratio of house prices to income is not that different from most other countries

    Jeremy Grantham (GMO)

    Source: Rismark; ABS; HIA

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    3. Inflation-Targeting Regime Dr ove Dow nw ard Sh ift in Nomina l Rates

    Australian Hea dline Mor tgage Rates

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    Jan-80

    Jan-81

    Jan-82

    Jan-83

    Jan-84

    Jan-85

    Jan-86

    Jan-87

    Jan-88

    Jan-89

    Jan-90

    Jan-91

    Jan-92

    Jan-93

    Jan-94

    Jan-95

    Jan-96

    Jan-97

    Jan-98

    Jan-99

    Jan-00

    Jan-01

    Jan-02

    Jan-03

    Jan-04

    Jan-05

    Jan-06

    Jan-07

    Jan-08

    Jan-09

    Jan-10

    12.6%

    7.3%

    RBA formally agrees 2-3%inflation target

    Source: Rismark; RBA

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    4. International Com parisons

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    Dwelling Pr ice Grow th since Janu ary 2000

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Jan-00

    Jul-00

    Jan-01

    Jul-01

    Jan-02

    Jul-02

    Jan-03

    Jul-03

    Jan-04

    Jul-04

    Jan-05

    Jul-05

    Jan-06

    Jul-06

    Jan-07

    Jul-07

    Jan-08

    Jul-08

    Jan-09

    Jul-09

    Jan-10

    Jul-10

    Australia NZ UK US Canada

    4. Australia Under perform ed Between 2003 and 2006

    8.9%

    7.8%

    7.4%

    6.9%

    3.4%

    CAGRs

    Source: RP Data-Rismark; NZ REI; Case-Shiller; Acadametrics; Teranet

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    4. Australia has Mu ch Higher Urban Concentrations

    Population Living in Urban Ar eas of Gr eater than 750,000 Person s

    61%

    48%47%

    43%

    29% 29%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    55%

    60%

    65%

    Australia Japan United States Canada New Zealand UnitedKingdom

    Source: PRB

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    4. Australia has Much Higher Projected Population Grow th Rate

    Japan

    Pr ojected Population Change 2009-2050

    55%

    43%

    27%24% 24%

    -25%-30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Australia United States New Zealand Canada United

    Kingdom

    Japan

    Source: PRB

    Japan

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    Jap.

    4. Australian Popu lation Grow th Amo ngst Highest in Developed W orld

    Population Grow th Rates over the Last 11 Years (to end 2008)

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

    Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States Japan

    Aust.

    Source: Rismark; IMF

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    4. Substantially Stronger than US and UK

    Annu al Population Chang e (1999 to 2009)

    0.0%

    0.5%

    1.0%

    1.5%

    2.0%

    2.5%

    Sep-99

    Mar-00

    Sep-00

    Mar-01

    Sep-01

    Mar-02

    Sep-02

    Mar-03

    Sep-03

    Mar-04

    Sep-04

    Mar-05

    Sep-05

    Mar-06

    Sep-06

    Mar-07

    Sep-07

    Mar-08

    Sep-08

    Mar-09

    Sep-09

    Australia US UK

    Source: Rismark; US Census Bureau; Statistics UK

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    5. Wer e the Real Bubbles in Equities (shhh!)?

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    5. US Peak-to-Trou gh: Shar es Fell by 52.6% vs. 32.6% for Ho use P rices

    Collapse of US Credit Creation System with Fannie, Freddie & FHA Funding c. 90% of Hom eLoans

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    Jan-06

    Mar-06

    May-06

    Jul-06

    Sep-06

    Nov-06

    Jan-07

    Mar-07

    May-07

    Jul-07

    Sep-07

    Nov-07

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Jul-08

    Sep-08

    Nov-08

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Sep-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    S&P500 Case-Shiller 20 City Composite

    Source: Rismark; S&P

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    5. UK Peak -to-Trou gh: Shar es Fell by 43.0% vs. 13.6% for H ouse Pr ices

    Partial Nationalisation of the UK Ba nking System w ith Extreme Residential Credit Rationing

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    Sep-07

    Nov-07

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Jul-08

    Sep-08

    Nov-08

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Sep-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    FTSE 100 UK Academetrics House Prices

    Source: Rismark; FTSE; Academetrics

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    5. Australia Peak -to-Trou gh: Shar es Fell by 50.5% vs. 3.8% for Hou se Pr ices

    Australian B anking System Rem ains Secure with Positive Residential Credit Grow th

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    Sep-07

    Nov-07

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Jul-08

    Sep-08

    Nov-08

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Sep-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    S&P/ASX 200 RP Data-Rismark Dwelling Prices

    Source: RP Data-Rismark; S&P

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    6. Wha t is Happening to Aussie Housing Mar ket Now?

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    6. After 6x Ra te Increases, Vendor s are Discounting Prices More

    Vendo r Discounting from List Prices for Hou ses

    -10%

    -9%

    -8%

    -7%

    -6%

    -5%

    -4%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0% M

    ay-05

    Aug-05

    Nov-05

    Fe

    b-06

    M

    ay-06

    Aug-06

    Nov-06

    Fe

    b-07

    M

    ay-07

    Aug-07

    Nov-07

    Fe

    b-08

    M

    ay-08

    Aug-08

    Nov-08

    Fe

    b-09

    M

    ay-09

    Aug-09

    Nov-09

    Fe

    b-10

    M

    ay-10

    Sydney Houses Melbourne Houses Brisbane Houses

    Source: RP Data; Rismark

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    6. Auction Clearance Ra tes have Declined but Now Stabilised

    RP Data Austr alian Capital City Auction Clearan ce Rates

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    Jun-08

    Jul-08

    Aug-08

    Sep-08

    Oct-08

    Nov-08

    Dec-08

    Jan-09

    Feb-09

    Mar-09

    Apr-09

    May-09

    Jun-09

    Jul-09

    Aug-09

    Sep-09

    Oct-09

    Nov-09

    Dec-09

    Jan-10

    Feb-10

    Mar-10

    Apr-10

    May-10

    Jun-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    Source: RP Data; Rismark

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    6. Inven tories Acr oss Austr alia have Risen a Little Higher

    Australia-wide New Listings and Relistings of Dw ellings

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    140,000

    160,000

    180,000

    200,000

    03/01/07

    21/02/07

    11/04/07

    30/05/07

    18/07/07

    05/09/07

    24/10/07

    12/12/07

    30/01/08

    19/03/08

    07/05/08

    25/06/08

    13/08/08

    01/10/08

    19/11/08

    04/01/09

    22/02/09

    12/04/09

    31/05/09

    19/07/09

    06/09/09

    25/10/09

    13/12/09

    31/01/10

    21/03/10

    09/05/10

    27/06/10

    15/08/10

    Relistings New Listings

    Source: RP Data; Rismark

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    6. Inven tories Acr oss Capital Cities W ell Below 200 8 Levels

    Austr alia-wide New Listings and R elistings of Capital City Dw ellings

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    80,000

    90,000

    100,000

    03/01/07

    28/02/07

    25/04/07

    20/06/07

    15/08/07

    10/10/07

    05/12/07

    30/01/08

    26/03/08

    21/05/08

    16/07/08

    10/09/08

    05/11/08

    31/12/08

    22/02/09

    19/04/09

    14/06/09

    09/08/09

    04/10/09

    29/11/09

    24/01/10

    21/03/10

    16/05/10

    11/07/10

    Relistings New Listings

    Source: RP Data; Rismark

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    6. Capital City and Re st of State Dwe lling Pr ices have Taper ed (Sho ck!)

    Australian Res idential Pr ice since Jan uary 2007

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    125

    130

    Jan-07

    Mar-07

    May-07

    Jul-07

    Sep-07

    Nov-07

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Jul-08

    Sep-08

    Nov-08

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Sep-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    RP Data-Rismark Capital Cities Hedonic All Dwellings RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic Houses

    Source: RP Data-Rismark

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    6. Price Tapering Clear Across All Subur bs During Second Quarter

    Per forman ce of Australian Capital City Subur bs(All Dw ellings) Ranked b y Price since Decem ber 2009

    97

    98

    99

    100

    101

    102

    103

    104

    105

    106

    107

    108

    109

    Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10

    Bottom 20% of Suburbs Middle 60% of Suburbs Top 20% of Suburbs

    Source: RP Data-Rismark

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    Australian Residential Prices since Januar y 200 7

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    Jan-07

    Mar-07

    May-07

    Jul-07

    Sep-07

    Nov-07

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Jul-08

    Sep-08

    Nov-08

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Sep-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    RP Data-Rismark Capital Cities Hedonic All Dwellings RP Data-Rismark Rest of State Hedonic Houses

    6. But Put it in Con textCapital Cities and Rest of State with Prope r Scaling

    Source: RP Data-Rismark

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    6. Same for Cheap, Middle and Expensive Suburbs

    Per form ance of Austr alian Capital City Subu rbs(All Dwellings) Ranked b y Price since Decem ber 2008

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Jul-08

    Sep-08

    Nov-08

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Sep-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    Bottom 20% of Suburbs Middle 60% of Suburbs Top 20% of Suburbs

    Source: RP Data-Rismark

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    6. Good News: Markets Think No More R ate Hikes (But is Market W ron g?)

    SFE Interban k Futures Implied Cash R ate

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    Sep-10

    Oct-10

    Nov-10

    Dec-10

    Jan-11

    Feb-11

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-11

    Jun-11

    Jul-11

    Aug-11

    Sep-11

    Oct-11

    Nov-11

    Dec-11

    Jan-12

    Source: Rismark; ASX

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    7. Solid Underlying Fundam entals

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    7. Big Divergence betwee n Grow th in Population and Grow th in New SupplyNew B uilding Appr ovals vs. Increase in Aus tralia's Resident Population:

    Quarterly Moving Ann ual Change

    0

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    350,000

    400,000

    450,000

    500,000

    Sep-84

    Mar-85

    Sep-85

    Mar-86

    Sep-86

    Mar-87

    Sep-87

    Mar-88

    Sep-88

    Mar-89

    Sep-89

    Mar-90

    Sep-90

    Mar-91

    Sep-91

    Mar-92

    Sep-92

    Mar-93

    Sep-93

    Mar-94

    Sep-94

    Mar-95

    Sep-95

    Mar-96

    Sep-96

    Mar-97

    Sep-97

    Mar-98

    Sep-98

    Mar-99

    Sep-99

    Mar-00

    Sep-00

    Mar-01

    Sep-01

    Mar-02

    Sep-02

    Mar-03

    Sep-03

    Mar-04

    Sep-04

    Mar-05

    Sep-05

    Mar-06

    Sep-06

    Mar-07

    Sep-07

    Mar-08

    Sep-08

    Mar-09

    Sep-09

    New Building Approvals Increase in Resident Population

    Source: Rismark; ABS

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    Chan ge in ABS Po pulation Pro jection s

    20,000,000

    25,000,000

    30,000,000

    35,000,000

    40,000,000

    45,000,000

    50,000,000

    2006

    2010

    2014

    2018

    2022

    2026

    2030

    2034

    2038

    2042

    2046

    2050

    2054

    2058

    2062

    2066

    2070

    2074

    2078

    2082

    2086

    2090

    2094

    2098

    Series B (2008) Series B (2004)

    7. Treas ur y Expects c. 60% Increa se in Resident Popu lation by 2050

    Treasury IGR: 36m

    Source: Rismark; ABS

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    7. Dem and-Supply Disconn ect Drive Under lying Hou sing Shortage

    ANZ Estimates for Australian Housing Dema nd an d Housing Supply

    -100,000

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    1986

    1988

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    NumberofDwellings

    Demand less Supply Underlying Supply Underlying Demand

    Source: ANZ

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    8. How Vulnerable are Australian Borrow ers?

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    8. Househ old Debt Not Unusu ally High

    RBA: the current household debt ratio in Australia is similar to that in most developed countries

    Source: RBA

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    8. Thr ee-Quar ters of Debt Held by Top 2x Incom e Quintiles

    RBA: The increased debt has mostly been taken on by households which are in the strongestposition to service itthe big increases in household debt over the past decade have been at the highend of the income distribution

    RBA: Households in the top two income quintiles account for 75 per cent of all outstanding

    household debthouseholds in the bottom two income quintiles account for only 10 per cent ofhousehold debt

    Source: RBA

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    8. Australian H ousing Leverage Less than Half US Levels

    RBA: Total gearing in the housing sector is just 29%, which is less than half US leverage

    RBA: Total household debt to household assets ratio is also less than 20%

    Source: RBA

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    8. Chan ge in Debt-to-Assets Ra tios Fun ction of Inflation-Targeting

    Long-Term Australian Debt to Asse ts Ratios

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Jun-77

    Jun-78

    Jun-79

    Jun-80

    Jun-81

    Jun-82

    Jun-83

    Jun-84

    Jun-85

    Jun-86

    Jun-87

    Jun-88

    Jun-89

    Jun-90

    Jun-91

    Jun-92

    Jun-93

    Jun-94

    Jun-95

    Jun-96

    Jun-97

    Jun-98

    Jun-99

    Jun-00

    Jun-01

    Jun-02

    Jun-03

    Jun-04

    Jun-05

    Jun-06

    Jun-07

    Jun-08

    Jun-09

    DebttoAsse

    tsRatio

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    MortgageRates

    Household Debt to Household Assets (LHS)Housing Debt (Only) to Housing Assets (LHS)

    Variable Mortgage Rates (RHS)

    Source: Rismark; RBA

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    Compa r isons of Official Interest Rates

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    Jan-00

    Jul-00

    Jan-01

    Jul-01

    Jan-02

    Jul-02

    Jan-03

    Jul-03

    Jan-04

    Jul-04

    Jan-05

    Jul-05

    Jan-06

    Jul-06

    Jan-07

    Jul-07

    Jan-08

    Jul-08

    Jan-09

    Jul-09

    Jan-10

    Jul-10

    US Japan Euro Area UK Canada Australia

    8. Australia Does h ave High Interest Rates (c. 85% Resi. Borro we rs Var iable)

    Source: Rismark; RBA

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    RBA Estimates of Non-Per form ing Housing Loans

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    Jan-90

    Jan-91

    Jan-92

    Jan-93

    Jan-94

    Jan-95

    Jan-96

    Jan-97

    Jan-98

    Jan-99

    Jan-00

    Jan-01

    Jan-02

    Jan-03

    Jan-04

    Jan-05

    Jan-06

    Jan-07

    Jan-08

    Jan-09

    Jan-10

    Percento

    fLoans

    Australia** US** UK+ Spain Canada**+

    8. But Consistently Very Low Mor tgage Default Rates

    8.7%

    2.9%

    2.4%

    0.68%0.45%

    Source: Rismark; RBA

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    8. System -W ide Househo ld DSCR is StrongHouse hold Interes t Repaym ents to Disposable Incom e

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    Jun-77

    Jun-79

    Jun-81

    Jun-83

    Jun-85

    Jun-87

    Jun-89

    Jun-91

    Jun-93

    Jun-95

    Jun-97

    Jun-99

    Jun-01

    Jun-03

    Jun-05

    Jun-07

    Jun-09

    InterestRepaymentsto

    DisposableIncom

    e

    Ratio

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    Mortg

    ageRates

    Total Interest Repayments to Disposable Household Income (LHS)

    Mortgage Interest Repayments to Disposable Household Income (LHS)

    Variable Mortgage Rates (RHS)

    Source: Rismark; RBA

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    RBA: Only ~2.5% of borrowers have LVR 90% AND repayments 50% disposable income

    RBA: Only ~3.5% have LVR 80% AND repayments 50% disposable income

    8. Only Small Share of High Risk Borrow ers

    Source: RBA

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    8. Australia ha s not Experienced Debt-Fuelled Pr operty Boo m since 2007Grow th in Australian Housing Credit Outstanding Very Low

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    30.0%

    Feb-90

    Aug-90

    Feb-91

    Aug-91

    Feb-92

    Aug-92

    Feb-93

    Aug-93

    Feb-94

    Aug-94

    Feb-95

    Aug-95

    Feb-96

    Aug-96

    Feb-97

    Aug-97

    Feb-98

    Aug-98

    Feb-99

    Aug-99

    Feb-00

    Aug-00

    Feb-01

    Aug-01

    Feb-02

    Aug-02

    Feb-03

    Aug-03

    Feb-04

    Aug-04

    Feb-05

    Aug-05

    Feb-06

    Aug-06

    Feb-07

    Aug-07

    Feb-08

    Aug-08

    Feb-09

    Aug-09

    Feb-10

    Quarterly Change in Credit Outstanding Annualised

    Six Monthly Change in Credit Outstanding Annualised

    Source: Rismark; RBA

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    8. Wh at Happened in 1991 Recession with Huge Spike in Unemploym ent?

    Wh at Happened Du ring the 1991 Recession whenUnem ploymen t Rose from 5.6% to 10.9% and M ortgage Rates Averaged 13.7%?

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    Dec-89

    Feb-90

    Apr-90

    Jun-90

    Aug-90

    Oct-90

    Dec-90

    Feb-91

    Apr-91

    Jun-91

    Aug-91

    Oct-91

    Dec-91

    Feb-92

    Apr-92

    Jun-92

    Aug-92

    Oct-92

    Dec-92

    REIA ABS RP Data-Rismark Residex CBA/HIA

    Source: RP Data-Rismark; ABS; Residex; REIA; CBA/HIA

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    9. What about China?

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    Urba nisation vs. Sha re of Labo ur Employed in Farm ing

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    1962

    1964

    1966

    1968

    1970

    1972

    1974

    1976

    1978

    1980

    1982

    1984

    1986

    1988

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    Share of Urban Population Share of Labour Employed in Farming

    9. 40% of Labour Still Employed in Agriculture ; Only 46.6% Urbanised

    Source: UBS

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    9. House Pr ice-to-Incom e Ratios Look High; But also Low !

    Chinese H ouse Pr ice-to-Incom e Ratios

    0x

    2x

    4x

    6x

    8x

    10x

    12x

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    House prices to average urban income House prices to home buyers income

    Source: UBS; Rismark

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    9. Very Low Levels of Household Leverage

    Household Debt as a Sha re of GDP

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    China US Korea

    Source: UBS

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    9. Very Low Levels of Household Leverage

    Household Debt as a Share of Disposable Income

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    China US Korea

    Source: UBS

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    Avera ge Monthly Annual House Price Growth : Janua ry 2000 to Mar ch 2010

    9.0%

    8.3% 8.2%

    6.8%

    5.9%

    4.0%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    10%

    Australia NZ UK Canada China 70 City New

    US

    U

    Source: UK (Academetrics, Composite Indices); US (Case-Shiller 20 City, Repeat-Sales); Canada (Teranet, Repeat-Sales); Australia (RP

    Data-Rismark, Hedonic); NZ (REINZ, Stratified); China (National Bureau of Statistics)

    9. China 70-City New Ho uses Ind ex has U n d e r p e r fo r m e d since 2000

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    Avera ge Monthly Annual House Pr ice Grow th: July 2005 to March 2010

    6.4% 6.3% 6.3%5.6%

    5.4%

    2.5%

    -3.6%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    Canada Australia China 70 City New

    China 70 CityEstablished

    NZ UK USU

    Source: UK (Academetrics, Composite Indices); US (Case-Shiller 20 City, Repeat-Sales); Canada (Teranet, Repeat-Sales); Australia (RP

    Data-Rismark, Hedonic); NZ (REINZ, Stratified); China (National Bureau of Statistics)

    9. China 70-City New/Estab. House s Index have N o t O u t p e r fo r m e d since 2005

    US

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