Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl
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Transcript of Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl
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Regional and decadal analysis of climate change induced extreme hydrometeorological stresses informs adaptation and mitigation policies
Auroop R GangulyOak Ridge National Laboratory
Email: [email protected]
21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society
January 15th 2009; Phoenix, AZ, USA
ORNL Co-Authors:Esther S ParishNagendra Singh
Karsten SteinhaeuserDavid J Erickson IIIMarcia BranstetterAnthony W KingErin J Middleton
A Climate Change War Game
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Arizona
A role playing exercise– Four largest emitters discuss climate policy
– UN Secretary General presses for emission target
– Players balance national interests and global goal
A Climate Change War GameDescription
The Players– Diverse backgrounds
Climate scientists Security strategists Environmental policy experts Business leaders
– Forty national delegates United States European Union China India
– UN Team Center for a New American Security John Podesta: UN Secretary General UN Sec. Gen.’s Science Team Rest of the world (observer status)
Coverage– The journal Nature (Blogs, News) – ABC News Documentary– Videocon by IPCC chairman Pachauri– Prominent players from US, EU, Asia
John Podesta (left) of CNAS, the UN secretary general in the game, was Clinton’s White House chief of staff and led Obama’s transition team
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Arizona
Define climate change for national security
Educate players with diverse backgrounds
Observe/understand negotiation process
A Climate Change War GameObjectives
ORNL provided the climate science
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Arizona
The year is 2015… Natural Hazards / Climate Refugees
– Environmental Refugees from Bangladesh– Category 5 Hurricane in Miami
Climate Change is “real”– Impacts on lives and economy – Public calls for action
UN Secretary General calls for action– 2012 Copenhagen provides background– Urgent meeting of four largest emitters– Prelude to major global agreement
A Climate Change War GameThe Premise
Photos from http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/supporting-the-clout-and-climate-change-war-game/
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Arizona
A Climate Change War GamePublicity
Nature Blogs:http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/events/climate_war_game/
“Much as the "hockey stick graph" became an icon for global warming itself, the "Angry Red Chart" became a symbol of the science that was driving negotiations back in the year 2015” (Jeff Tollefson, Nature Blogs)
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Arizona
UN Secretary General charges the country delegates with four tasks
The Four Negotiation Areas– Natural (e.g., water) resources scarcity
– Hazards and humanitarian aid
– Migration and population shifts
– Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
Adaptation & Mitigation– Adaptation: “Manage the Unavoidable”
– Mitigation: “Avoid the Unmanageable”
CNAS Website for Climate Change War Game:http://www.cnas.org/node/149
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Arizona
http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming/
ORNL Climate Change WarGaming Website
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Arizona
Climate Science Support by ORNL
CCSM3 Climate Model: One of the primary climate models used for IPCC AR4
IPCC SRES A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario: Initially considered “extreme”, recent emissions agree with A1FI
Global Projections: 1.4o spatial grids with global coverage; Daily to 6-hourly for 2000–2099; T85 Gaussian Grid
Regional Assessments: Focus on four regions which are the largest emitters for the four sets of players
Decadal Projections: Data analysis for decadal change (e.g., change in decadal averages or extremes)
Climate Extremes: Extreme hydrometeorological stresses or events caused or exacerbated by climate change
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Arizona
Global Assessments: The 'Angry Red Chart'
CourtesyNature Blog (Tollefson)CNAS (John Podesta) Pew Center (Gulledge)CNAS (Sharon Burke)
Nature Blogs
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Arizona
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Arizona
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Arizona
Regional Extreme Events
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Arizona
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Arizona
Regional Extreme Events
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Arizona
Regional Extreme Impacts
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Arizona
Plausible Policy-Relevant Insights
China: Water scarcity and food stress, especially in the East
India: Water stress from de-glaciation & mega-delta floods
US: Midwest heat waves; Water stress in West (dry & warm)
Europe: Regional warming; Water stress in Spain & Portugal
Water emerges as the central issue for impacts
Insights are exemplary rather than exhaustive and rather preliminary. Refer AMS abstract and README in ORNL’s climate wargaming website.
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Arizona
Follow-up A1FI/CCSM3 climate insights
Higher mean, but greater geographic variability and uncertainty, of change and extremes
Statistically significant increase in global temperatures compared to other scenarios in mid to late 21st century
Larger temperature changes and more intense heat waves in most regions of the globe in the 21st century
Significant bias and variance at regional scales even for decadal averaged statistics of change and extremes
Uncertainty computed from recent projections and observations larger (statistically significant) than ensembles
Clearer signal for temperature change and related extremes but uncertainty dominates for hydrology
Manuscripts under preparation
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Arizona
Lessons Learnt
Relevance of the science– Global assessments useful for emissions policy and international
treaties, laws, or norms– Regional assessments useful for adaptation decisions and bilateral
or multilateral agreements– Policy makers may not question climate science, especially at
global scale, but may need justification for local impacts– Climate extremes (both extreme stresses and extreme events) are
among the most relevant for policy negotiations
Importance of uncertainty – Uncertainty information is useful and actionable, especially since
policy makers routinely deal with uncertainty– Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction as delayed action can
cause larger change and more damaging impacts– Quantification of known uncertainty translates to risk assessments
while characterization of unknown uncertainty supports policy– Uncertainty may provide worse case situations for infrastructure
design or most likely / best case for resource allocation
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Arizona
Translating Science to Policy
The “angry red chart” visual motivated much of the global consensus around emissions– Example: The policy-makers from all four regions tried desperately
to agree on some common language to reduce emissions
Adaptation decisions and policies were based on hard realities on the ground– Example: Advanced US capabilities for disaster management
around the globe were a primary consideration that dominated the discussions around hazards and humanitarian aid
Clear depiction of regional extreme stresses or events, including uncertainty, motivated bilateral and trilateral agreements, leading to global consensus– Example: The India team utilized regional maps of hydrologic /
water extremes and stresses to motivate delegates from the US team to extract international norms regarding water treaties, in spite of some resistance from the China team
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Arizona
ORNL Websites and Contributors
Acknowledgments(ORNL: Alphabetical): Budhendra L BhaduriJohn B Drake Gary K Jacobs Aaron Myers Olufemi A OmitaomuBlair RossAlexander SorokineThomas J Wilbanks
For related publications and presentations:Contact Auroop R Ganguly ([email protected])
http://www.geocities.com/auroop_ganguly
ORNL Websites1. Climate Extremeshttp://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/ClimateExtremes
2. Climate Change War Gamehttp://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming
3. Climate Change & National Security http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/NationalSecurity