August 2014 - WordPress.com · 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008...
Transcript of August 2014 - WordPress.com · 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008...
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AUGUST 2014
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KCM Divided intoThree Sections
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+=
The Question of the Day…
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Put Them Out of Work
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NAR 2014
found their HOMEon the Internet
Percentage of Buyers who…
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70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NAR 2014
Percentage of Buyers who…
used an AGENT
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“The industry is becoming more transparent in an effort to help
homebuyers become informed about changes that may affect their process.
The sheer amount of information can lead to confusion and stress.”
Cameron FindlayChief Economist at Discover Home Loans
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Inundated with Information
65%76%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
All Respondents Those Under the Age of 30
% that feels overwhelmed by the amount of information available on home financing
Discover Financial 2014
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“Access to all this information isn’t always a positive force. Sometimes, it can stall a buyer or make them question whether or not they want to be a buyer.”
- Fox Business News
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75%
88%
83%
88%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Buyers Sellers
% of Buyers & Sellers who used an Agent
NAR 2014
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Be their ‘Expert’This is a person to whom people will turn for advice on difficult or complex real estate decisions.
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Altos Research 7/2014
Altos “Bullish” on the Real Estate Market
“The real-time data paints a much more robust environment than the
headlines would indicate.Demand remains high, transactions
happen very quickly. Home prices are up another
9% year over last year.
We’ve had a strong run and the American consumer is anxious to again buy real estate.”
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“Demographics should be more of a positive catalyst. More of those younger adults who have been living at home should find jobs and these 25–35-year-olds should provide some incremental elevation to the rental and starter home markets.”
Fitch expects accelerated upturn in housing
HousingWire 7/2014
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MILLENNIALS
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32%
21%
6% 7%5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Ages 18-34 Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55-64 Ages 65+
BMO Harris Bank 6/2014
% of Each Age Groupplanning to buy a home
in the next 12 months?
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BMO Harris Bank 6/2014
74%
62%
35%31%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ages 18-34 Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55-64 Ages 65+
% of Each Age Groupplanning to buy a home
in the next 5 years?
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33.6% 35.0%38.8% 40.5%
34.3%
0.0%
15.0%
30.0%
45.0%
Ages 45-49 Ages 40-44 Ages 35-39 Ages 30-34 Ages 25-29
Homeownership Rates by Age Group when they were 25-29 Years Old
Ages reported are ages in 2012 John Burns Consulting 2014
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“From 2012 to 2013, population growth for Millennials was highest outside big cities.
The differences aren’t huge, but there’s clearly no
mad rush to the cities.”
Jed KolkoTrulia
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6.00 $ 600 $ 585 $ 570 $ 555 $ 540
5.75 $ 584 $ 569 $ 554 $ 540 $ 525
5.50 $ 568 $ 554 $ 539 $ 525 $ 511
5.25 $ 552 $ 538 $ 525 $ 510 $ 497
5.00 $ 537 $ 523 $ 510 $ 497 $ 483
4.75 $ 522 $ 509 $ 496 $ 482 $ 469
4.50 $ 507 $ 495 $ 481 $ 467 $ 456
$ 100,000 $ 97,500 $ 95,000 $ 92,500 $ 90,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
Buyer’s Purchasing PowerR
ATE
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
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6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079
5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050
5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022
5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994
5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966
4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939
4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912
$ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
Buyer’s Purchasing PowerR
ATE
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
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6.00 $ 2,398 $ 2,338 $ 2,278 $ 2,218 $ 2,158
5.75 $ 2,334 $ 2,276 $ 2,218 $ 2,160 $ 2,100
5.50 $ 2,272 $ 2,214 $ 2,158 $ 2,100 $ 2,044
5.25 $ 2,208 $ 2,154 $ 2,098 $ 2,044 $ 1,988
5.00 $ 2,148 $ 2,094 $ 2,040 $ 1,986 $ 1,932
4.75 $ 2,086 $ 2,034 $ 1,982 $ 1,930 $ 1,878
4.50 $ 2,026 $ 1,976 $ 1,926 $ 1,874 $ 1,824
$ 400,000 $ 390,000 $ 380,000 $ 370,000 $ 360,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
RAT
E
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
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6.00 $ 3,597 $ 3,507 $ 3,417 $ 3,328 $ 3,237
5.75 $ 3,501 $ 3,414 $ 3,326 $ 3,239 $ 3,151
5.50 $ 3,407 $ 3,322 $ 3,236 $ 3,151 $ 3,066
5.25 $ 3,313 $ 3,230 $ 3,148 $ 3,065 $ 2,982
5.00 $ 3,221 $ 3,140 $ 3,060 $ 2,979 $ 2,899
4.75 $ 3,130 $ 3,052 $ 2,973 $ 2,895 $ 2,817
4.50 $ 3,040 $ 2,964 $ 2,888 $ 2,812 $ 2,736
$ 600,000 $ 585,000 $ 570,000 $ 555,000 $ 540,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
RAT
E
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
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6.00 $ 4,796 $ 4,676 $ 4,557 $ 4,437 $ 4,317
5.75 $ 4,669 $ 4,552 $ 4,435 $ 4,318 $ 4,201
5.50 $ 4,542 $ 4,429 $ 4,315 $ 4,202 $ 4,088
5.25 $ 4,418 $ 4,307 $ 4,197 $ 4,086 $ 3,976
5.00 $ 4,295 $ 4,187 $ 4,080 $ 3,972 $ 3,865
4.75 $ 4,173 $ 4,069 $ 3,965 $ 3,860 $ 3,756
4.50 $ 4,053 $ 3,952 $ 3,851 $ 3,749 $ 3,648
$ 800,000 $ 780,000 $ 760,000 $ 740,000 $ 720,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
RAT
E
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
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6.00 $ 5,996 $ 5,846 $ 5,696 $ 5,546 $ 5,396
5.75 $ 5,836 $ 5,690 $ 5,544 $ 5,398 $ 5,252
5.50 $ 5,678 $ 5,536 $ 5,394 $ 5,252 $ 5,110
5.25 $ 5,522 $ 5,384 $ 5,246 $ 5,108 $ 4,970
5.00 $ 5,368 $ 5,234 $ 5,100 $ 4,966 $ 4,831
4.75 $ 5,216 $ 5,086 $ 4,956 $ 4,825 $ 4,695
4.50 $ 5,067 $ 4,940 $ 4,814 $ 4,687 $ 4,560
$ 1,000,000 $ 975,000 $ 950,000 $ 925,000 $ 900,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
RAT
E
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
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PRICES
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 7/2014
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Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
CaseShiller
S&P Case Shiller 7/2014
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-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014App/Dep 4.2% 4.5% 3.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.9% -1.6% -8.9% -7.0% 0.4% -1.8% 1.9% 6.8% 3.0%
Annual Home Price Gains
Wall Street Journal
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1.9%
6.8%
3.0%
2012 2013 2014 YTD
Annual Home Price Gains
Wall Street Journal
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4.6
4.95.0
5.2
5.75.5 5.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 7/2014
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RATE LockoutReports reveal that 19% of current homeowners either purchased or refinanced homes between 2011 and 2013 -- when rates were historically low.
CNN Money 2014
19%
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“Watch out for the lock-in effect on new rates. People
don't want to give up their 3.5 percent mortgage rates unless
they really need to move.”
Lawrence YunChief Economist of NAR
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3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
Freddie Mac 8/2014
Freddie Mac Actual Rates
January 2013 – July 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
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EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 7/2014
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-8.6%
2.3%
7.2%
4.0%
6.8%
8.5%
-9.0%
-6.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+% Sales +/- -8.6% 2.3% 7.2% 4.0% 6.8% 8.5%
% Change in Sales from last year
by Price Range
NAR 7/22/2014
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90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Sales
NAR 7/2014
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50.6 51.2 50 50.647.8
27.7
19.3
26.2
43.946.1
44.542.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
July 2013 August2013
Septembet2013
October2013
November2013
December2013
January2014
February2014
March2014
April 2014 May 2014 June 2014
reator.org
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
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4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 7/2014
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4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 7/2014
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-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%-13%
-7.6%
-5%-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
5.3%
3.2%
6.5% 6% 5.5%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.50%
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 7/2014
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RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – August 2014
Yahoo & Case Shiller
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Foreclosures by Stateas a percentage of all homes with a mortgage
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Percentage of Distressed Property
Sales
35%
11%
15%
NAR 7/2014
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Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
7, 8, 15
% of Buyers Who: Found Home on Internet, Used an Agent, Buyers & Seller who used Agents
http://www.realtor.org/reports/highlights-from-the-2013-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers
11,12 Cameron Findlay Quote, Inundated with Information http://investorrelations.discoverfinancial.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=204177&p=RssLanding&cat=news&id=1949658
14 Fox Business News Quote http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2014/07/18/5-tips-for-millennial-home-buyer/
20 Altos Research Quote http://blog.altosresearch.com/the-2015-housing-market-forecast/
21 Fitch Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/30745-fitch-housing-market-getting-ready-to-grow
23, 24% of Age Groups Planning in 12 months, % of Age Groups Planning in 5 years
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/majority-millennials-plan-purchase-home-next-five-years-bmo-harris-bank-study-1921714.htm
25 Housing Wire Article http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30775-hey-cnbc-shut-up-about-millennials-already
26 Homeownership Rates http://www.realestateconsulting.com/blog/chris-porter/subprime-generation
27 Jed Kolko Quote http://www.trulia.com/trends/category/baby-boomers/
35, 36 S&P Case Shiller https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/103542_cshomeprice-release-0729.pdf
37, 38 Annual Home Price Gains https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BttrHkxCcAEREHB.jpg
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Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
39, 42, 45-47, 49-51
Months Inventory, Lawrence Yun Quote, Existing Home Sales, By Price, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory, Year-Over-Year
http://www.realtor.org/
40 Calculated Risk Chart http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/07/weekly-update-housing-tracker-existing.html
41 Rate Lockout http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/17/real_estate/homeowner-landlords/
44 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
48 Foot Traffic https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2318478-foot-traffic-june-2014
52 Return on Investment http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerhttp://finance.yahoo.com/
53 Foreclosures By State http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2014.pdf
54 % of Distressed Homes http://www.realtor.org/
58 Marc Davidson Quote http://1000watt.net/2014/07/zillow-trulia-and-you/
68 Millennials and Student Debt: We Knew They Were Wrong! http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2014/06/30/millennials-and-student-debt-we-knew-they-were-wrong/
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"Focus on brand marketing, content marketing and other more intelligent means of engaging
homebuyers and sellers."
Marc DavisonCo-Founder 1000WATT Consulting
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Tamara Inzunza
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http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2014/06/30/millennials-and-student-debt-we-knew-they-were-wrong/
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Natalie Southwick, Owner/Broker
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Natalie Southwick, Owner/Brokercell: (801) 558 0364www.aspencreekrealty.com
“We use your resources on a weekly basis for our blog and Facebook.
Utah Business Magazine contacted Aspen Creek Realty about doing an
interview concerning Millennials.
We come up as the #1 search in Google for ‘Utah Real Estate Millennials’.
We love your information and all that you provide.
Jennifer Horner will be interviewed today for Utah Business Magazine.”
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Jennifer HornerBuyer Specialist
Cell: 801.884.2314www.aspencreekrealty.com
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/GROUPS/KCMMEMBERS
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