August 2009 Charleston Market Report

8/9/2019 August 2009 Charleston Market Report

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www.charlestonmarketreport.com


The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.William Arthur Ward

Freedom, choice, transparency, constitutional rights, budgets are all aspects of life that we the people must live by oa day to day basis but our fearless leaders in Washington, DC seem to want to dismiss. The American citizen is up from being lied to, stolen from and bamboozled by certain individuals in the public and private sector. There is grassroots revolution that is striking back against what is right versus what is wrong and we are witnessing in certaitown hall meetings and other social outlets. Probably the best aspect regarding the recent financial meltdown is thamost Americans are getting a crash course in the economy and how important it is to their daily lives. Now we justhave to get those searching for the truth away from the media outlets that promote smoke and mirrors.

In the economic world we hear inflation, deflation, housing bottom, housing recovery, V recovery, W recovery, bumarket, bear market, etc, etc. You turn on the TV on and watch the State Run Media and you will get a differentview from all the experts. What is ironic to me is that if you dig into the past calls of many of these experts youwill see that their forecasting is not so good. We also have to be very careful to not allow the crazy fundamentaleconomic information that is rather scary get in the way of our investing strategies.

One of the best aspects of writing this newsletter each month is that it forces me to research tons and tons of markerelated material. Putting the puzzle together and trying to forecast what will happen is fun but a real challenge. Thmore you do it the easier it gets but we all get humbled along the way because at the end of the day all this stuff canget rather complicated.

I look forward to offering more economic and investing tools in the future to help many of you get access to certaintools that include strategies with robust risk management strategies.

So lets jump into the August edition of the CMR and see if we can figure out what the heck is going on in this crazworld we live in.


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August 2009 Edition

In This Issue:

Cartoons

Were You Aware?

The U.S. Consumer

CTAR Data

Banking Outlook

Potential Black Swans

U.S. HousingTen Year Yield (TNX)

Stock Market

Charleston Data

Cartoons


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Were You Aware?

Guess how many jobs the US private sector has added over the last 10 years?

Answer: Almost none. Private sector employment is back to levels of 1999. There are more jobs in restaurants andhealth care...but many fewer in manufacturing. Net gain: zero.

The only job gains have been in the parasite sector government. SHOCKER! On the evidence, this trend is goingcontinue. Now, the feds have a new post called "pay czar." As near as I can tell this is a busybody who undertakes tcontrol salaries in the industries that the feds have bailed out. There will be a lot more jobs running theregulatory/bailout apparatus. Then, too, there are all the make-work jobs of the shovel ready boondoggles the feds

began in an effort to replace private spending.


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The U.S. Consumer

Most of you have been reading my stuff long enough to know I am fascinated by trends. I really enjoy spotting amajor trend change and then try to figure out how to take advantage of it. One of the biggest trend changes oureconomy has ever faced is the fact that the U.S. consumer has switched from a 25 year borrowing and spending sprto a savings mindset. This has major ramifications on the domestic and global economy. The Frugal Economy amany of the pundits call it is at the core of the real estate and economic crash that is leading us down the road of

deleveraging.


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The deleveraging process will probably force over a thousand banks to fail because $155 billion in securitizations a$525 in commercial loans are coming due in 2012. The response to deleveraging by our fearless leaders in DC ismore regulation since these political clowns think they have the answer to all the worlds problems. Most of youknow I think the free market should solve the problems in the economy NOT the government. Unfortunately, that wishful thinking so we have to all deal with the cards that have been dealt. The US consumer switching from bigspenders to savers is a double edge sword to an economy addicted to credit and used to higher growth each year. TUS consumer pullback is a major shock to the system which has resulted in a deflationary environment and increasunemployment. This is the nasty part of the cycle when the consumer finally gives in and pulls back. However, inthe end we are all better off saving instead of living beyond our means but the change in this trend is very painful.

Between 2003 and 2007 prime years of the housing boom the net worth of an American household expandeto about $540,000, from about $400,000, according to an analysis of federal data by Moodys Economy.com.

Now, the wealth effect is working in reverse: by the first three months of this year, household net worth had droppeto $421,000 . . .

As recently as the middle of 2007, Americans saved less than 2 percent of their income, according to the Bureau ofEconomic Analysis. In recent months, the rate has exceeded 4 percent

The U.S. recovery is a tale of two economies. At one extreme of Corporate America is a cadre of companies and

banks, mostly big, united by an enviable access to credit. At the other end are firms, chiefly small, with slumpingsales that cant borrow or are facing stiff terms to do so.On Main Street, there are consumers with rock-solid jobs but also legions of debt-strapped individuals strugglinto keep their noses above water.

This split helps explain the patchiness of the recovery that appears to be taking hold after the worst recession in ahalf-century,

Sources:A Reluctance to Spend May Be a Legacy of the RecessionPETER S. GOODMAN

NYT, August 28, 2009http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/29/business/economy/29consumer.htmlHalting Recovery Divides America in TwoCARI TUNA, LIZ RAPPAPORT and JULIE JARGONWSJ, August 29, 2009http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125150649639668499.html


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Typically in every recession the lower and middle class get hurt the worst. What is worrisome about the currentsituation is the high deficit lack of fiscal responsibility and fact that the Democrats who are in control appear gearinup to raise everyones taxes, even the middle class. Due to this strong possibility of increasing taxes and deficits weall have to adjust our investing and spending habits. This becomes a vicious cycle of slow growth, defaulting debtsincreasing unemployment and more government regulation.

CTAR DataI have had a SC real estate license for a number of years. I obtained my license in 2005 while I was an appraiser.From 2005 through November 2008 my firm or I paid dues to have access to the MLS database. On November 200I placed my SC Real Estate license on referral status because I was moving into a different direction from real estatconsulting due to a lack of demand. What essentially happened was my real estate consulting services were not anecessity after the financial meltdown in the fall of 2008. The story of caution and risk management with regards tthe local and national real estate market and economy became old news after discussing it for 2 years prior to thatfateful September 2008 credit meltdown. Nobody in their right mind was planning any large developments or coulget access to money after the credit market collapsed. When I placed my real estate license into referral status I qupaying dues to CTAR (Charleston Trident Association of Realtors). I did not realize that it was against CTAR polibased on my real estate arrangement that I could not use the MLS data. Last week I had a meeting with CTAR togain an understanding of my options with regards to using the Charleston MLS data.

According to CTAR I will have to pay $500 per year in order to access their data. I have decided not to pay this fe

because my business does not warrant it and CTAR refuses to give me access to a specific data download that woulallow me to provide consulting and research to local and national institutions. I do not need to use the MLS to buyand list homes for clients because I am not a real estate agent.

What this means is that future CMR newsletters are not going to have any Charleston MLS data in them. I have othsources I can provide data and analysis of the local Charleston real estate market without paying CTAR $500 peryear. If the structure of my business changes in the future I may decide to become a member of CTAR again but rignow it is not in the cards. The last CMR issue you received did not have any CTAR MLS data in the newsletter incase you were wondering.


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CTAR is a unique organization where the members are considered stockholders and control their sales and listingdata. They have very strict guidelines on who can access and use the data. I disagree with the way they try tointernally control the data for transparency purposes because there is not anyone that I know of who is using the MLdata for risk management purposes to the private and public sector except a few appraisers. I mentioned this to theemployees of CTAR but they have to abide by the rules and regs set forth by the CTAR members (CharlestonRealtors) so I am not upset with them. If you are reading this and are a CTAR member I would encourage you to ginvolved with the board and restructure these rules.

Regardless, I think it is a shame that the CTAR members have structured their organization where they want me topay for the data but not give me the data I need to really do my job so I can justify the dues expense. This decisionshould not affect the CMR because I have decided to close out the CMR report in July 2010. Based on the issue wCTAR and the desire to make this a national newsletter I am going to move towards just analyzing the nationalmarkets where I do not have problems or high costs to access data and I can attempt to draw on a larger audience. do not have to pay for stock market data or economic data in order to perform analysis and forecasting of the markeMaybe one day the members of CTAR who made these rules and regulations will take a step into the 21st century amake their data more transparent to people like me who are trying to add value through risk management to theirindustry.

Banking OutlookOver the past year we have had around 70-80 banks fail. There are new reports from various analysts who arepredicting 350-1000 banks will fail. There are over 14,000 banks and credit unions around the country who mustreport to the FDIC. Typically around this time each year many of them get audited by the FDIC. I very much in tuwith what is happening in the bank and credit union world because I work with a firm that provides risk managemesolutions to banking institutions all over the country. I can tell you that we will probably see over 1000 banks fail ithe next year or two.

This is a crisis of solvency, not just liquidity, but true deleveraging has not begun yet because the losses of financiinstitutions have been socialized and put on government balance sheets. This limits the ability of banks to lend,households to spend and companies to invest... Nouriel Roubini

The releveraging of the public sector through its build-up of large fiscal deficits risks crowding out a recovery inprivate sector spending.

This does not mean we are going to have an episode similar to the Great Depression but these future failures willplace tremendous pressure on the real estate market and economy. Since I speak with many of these small andmedium sized banks ($200mil to $10 billion in assets) on a daily basis I can tell you many of them deserve to fail ashould be taken over by the banks who know how to manage risk and properly evaluate borrowers. There are somereally well run banks in this country that are small, medium and large in size that you never hear about that are gointo get stronger while the weak banks fail. This folks is the way the free market is supposed to work so dont let thebank failure numbers scare you. Not all banks are bad in the U.S. but many of them lost focus of where and what

their loans were concentrated in and they were simply too aggressive in their lending operations. If 1200 out of14,000 banks were to fail in the next couple of years that would make sense according to what we discussed lastmonth regarding this economy growing by 30% too much due to a loose monetary policy influenced by our friendsover at The Fed.

In order to get an idea of what is happening in this bank sector I like to look at the chart and relative strength of theKBW Regional Bank Index (KRX), since it does not contain the mega crap banks such as Citigroup, Bank of Amerand Wells Fargo. The fact that this index just went on a relative strength sell signal versus the S&P 500 is a decentsignal that many of the banks who are members of this index are in trouble. I have no positions in this stock.


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KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX)

Chart Source: Dorsey Wright

Another sign of trouble for banks are the foreclosures. According to First American Core Logic nearly one-third oall mortgages in the U.S. are underwater.

More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages or 32.2% of all mortgaged properties were in a negative equityposition as of June 30, 2009.

The aggregate property value for loans in a negative equity position was $3.4 trillion. (Yikes! That is morethan Obama just increased the U.S. deficit)

Half of the negative equity mortgages reside in 5 states which include Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan aCalifornia.

The situation could get much worse if the Case-Shiller were to drop slightly then we could possible witnessover 50% of all mortgage holders in a negative equity predicament.

Based on my knowledge of the real estate market I believe there is a very good chance we will see over 50% of allmortgage holders in the U.S. go upside down or underwater. Many states besides the five mentioned above still


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have not had the entire foreclosure wave hit because not all mortgages have reset, many people still have not beenfired and many banks have not released their distressed real estate on the market in order to keep their stock prices

The Congressional Oversight Panel (CBO) recently released their August Report which expressed concern for manof the small and medium size banks ($600 million to $100 billion group). The report discusses how many of theseinstitutions will need to raise significant capital as losses mount in their lending portfolios due to the strain on theeconomy. Another excellent point mentioned in the report is that Level 3 Asset exposure which has an approximatvalue of over $650 billion (and are valued at this figure because of the FASB) are actually worth approximately 50if the banks were forced to mark these assets to market or fair market value which would be $300-325 billion.

Potential Black Swans

The U.S. loses its AAA credit rating. (How do we still have it????) The Congress votes on the Fed to be audited or Bloomberg LP wins its case vs. The Clearing House

Association (aka Big Banks)

http://tinyurl.com/mjedu9

Another stock market correction worse than the last one. The dollar crashes. The U.S. Deficit (The Obama Administration admits it could double from the current $11 trillion in the nex

10 years.)

Long term interest rates rise.*** The key thing to remember about Black Swans is that we will see them coming before they hit by doi

extensive research and always monitoring fundamental + technical data.

Ten Year Yield (TNX)This is a real important subject that we have discussed in the past which deals with the TNX or 10 year yield. If mydiscussion last month regarding more deflation in the near term is accurate we should see the TNX rise. Over the pyear, the bond market via the TNX has gone up along with the S&P 500 which is a rather conflicting signal. Eitherthe bond market or the stock market is going to be wrong about the future.

Some of the fundamental headwinds for higher yields include: 1) rising unemployment; 2) a deflationary environmas reflected in 50 plus year low in CPI; 3) an economy that has "leveled out" but that has yet to demonstrate any reagrowth.

The TNX could move sideways for a while until more data comes in for the bond market to make up its mind whetit believes this is just a bear market rally or a true economic recovery. It is really hard to forecast the TNX when it manipulated by the Fed, which has been purchasing our own debt to keep rates artificially low. If the Fed were notmanipulating rates right now I believe they would be over 7%. Just my opinion.


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U.S. HousingDriving forces for last 5 months.

1. Tax credit.2. A reported 40-50,000 in REO homes not yet placed for sale.3. Moratorium on REO's.4. Mortgage adjustments.5. Prices may have bottomed out on the low end.6. Most active sales season is now completed.

My concern is what happens when lenders place the shadow inventory for sale?


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Important Notes1) The hottest markets are where foreclosures have driven prices down 50% or greater;2) Inventory remains significantly elevated its closer to 10 months than historic averages of 5-6 months;3) Mortgage rates are at unusually low levels despite this, sales remain generally soft.4) Prices remain elevated by historic norms;5) Big increase on the low end Starter homes and Condos are moving units; The middle and larger (jumbomortgages) are a vast wasteland; But for the 16k increase in condo sales in the Northeast, monthly sales would havbeen negative;6) Indeed, on a NON-seasonally - adjusted basis, National existing home sales were up a mere 12k units.

7) Lots of shadow inventory is waiting to come on the market once prices improve, These were specs, vacationproperty, etc that got caught when the market collapsed they are renting them out or they are vacant.

First-time buyers purchased 30% of all homes in July; Distressed homes accounted for 31% of transactions; The month-to month gain was aberrational, marking was the single biggest gain since 1999; Total housing inventory rose 7.3% to 4.09 million existing homes a 9.4-month supply; National median existing-home price fell 15.1% from July 2008 to $178,400; Single-family home sales increased 6.5% from June, and are 5.0%higher than July 2008. Median existing single-family home price fell 14.6% to $178,300; Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped12.5%.

The seasonal strength peaks each summer around August, so this is the penultimate high point for the years housimarket. Look for the high when August is reported, than a fall for the rest of the year.

The chart below shows the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City CompositeHome Price Indices.

Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index fell Year over year 14.9% in Q2 of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 20This substantial negative annual rate of returns represents an improvement over the record decline of 19.1% reportein Q1. The 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual declines of 15.1% and 15.4%, respectively, animprovement over recent respective record losses of -19.4% and -19.1%.


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Stock Market

Long-timer Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) said:Some of the smartest and most successful men and women in the world disagree as to whether we are dealing withcorrection in an ongoing bear market - or whether we are dealing with a new bull market. Nobody on the planet

possesses the final, ultimate answer. I happen to believe were dealing with an upward correction in an ongoing be

market, and that opinion is what keeps me on the edge of my seat. Im worried about the economy, Im worried abothe future, and Im worried about the market itself.

Because this correction, so far, has been impressive, many analysts are calling it a cyclical bull market instead oa bear market rally.I dont care what you call it, if Im correct, if, indeed, we are in a rally in a bear market, I w

to be on my guard. I went through a number of these cyclical bull markets during the 1966 to 1980 bear marke

and I saw a lot of investors lose their shirts when those various bear market rallies unexpectedly topped out.

Doug Kass (TheStreet.com), who accurately called the March bottom, is now outright bearish, saying:The market optimism we are now experiencing in the expectation of a clean hand-over of the baton of stimulation

from the consumer (2000-2006) to the government (2008-??) might be more short-lived than many believe, as theprice of stimulation, regardless of whether its source is the private or public sector, holds the promise of being mor

of a growth retardant. With the debt supercycle continuing apace (but in a public sector context), the fragility an

inherently unstable balance of financial terror argue for a not-so-benign and extremely volatile stock market

future.

the margin of safety is becoming ever more thin as the enemy of the rational buyer, namely optimism, reachesnew heights. since a self-sustaining economic recovery appears doubtful, I do not believe we have started a new

bull market. Rather, it is more than likely that economic growth will disappoint in late 2009/early 2010 as the

domestic economy confronts many of the emerging secular challenges.

The stock market is up 47% since the March 2009 lows. Wow! The equally weighted S&P 500 is up over 60% anthe emerging market fund is up over 70% since the March low of 666 (The sign of the devil Just kidding). Can ysay double WOW! I really believe those of you who are looking to put money to work are going to have to focusmore on a tactical investment approach via the stock market to make your money work over the next 10 years and r

estate is going to be much more difficult. I would stick with REITs instead of physical real estate for future realestate investing because liquidity will be easier when you need cash.

The 2000 to 2002 market was a killer for the broad market averages and particularly the technology market. Thatbubble burst or more appropriately, imploded with the NASDAQ Composite down over 70% from March 2000 toOctober 2002. The ensuing recovery was quite impressive to say the least. While the NASDAQ has yet to better its2000 highs, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average did. It took from March 2003 to Fall of 2007 to do so what happened in the intervening four years under the surface of these broad indices was quite interesting. The firstobservation from this period was that the first rally off the bottom was extremely explosive carrying everything witit. In 2003, the S&P 500 was up 26.4% but the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index was up 12% more, up 38.71%. Thiscarried the NYSE Bullish Percent up to the 86% level by January 2004. That was the highest level the BPNYSE ha

seen since 1982, also a period when the market exploded off the bottom to begin a bull market rally. While the S&P500 continued to move higher, the NYSE Bullish Percent never exceeded that level. This rally is extremely broad athe most important thing is to be long the market. From the 2004 point forward over the next three years, sectorsslowly began to peel off as the number of sectors carrying the market higher narrowed.

Another observation about the 2003-2007 market is that the S&P 500 never corrected more than 10%. It wasnt untthe June to August 2007 correction that the S&P 500 was down more than 10%.

How will this market play out? I dont have a crystal ball but the offensive team is on the field and when theoutlook/technicals change I just adjust the sails.


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The NYSE BP is exhibiting a trend that started last November (after the credit meltdown) of producing higher topsand higher bottoms during the market cycles. We witnessed similar rallies after the Great Depression even though economic fundamentals were horrible. An example of crazy fundamentals at work and why you do not want to relyon fundamental analysis but rather combine fundamental and technical analysis in real estate and the stock market cbe expressed below. The chart on the left is a technical chart of the NYSE Bullish Percent and the chart on the righis a fundamental chart displaying the Price to Earnings ratio of the S&P 500. Clearly the PE ratio of the S&P 500 icompletely out of whack when you look at data going back to the 1930s but at the end of the day if you look at thetechnicals this market has been up from 40-75% since the March lows.

This is why I recommend a tactical approach to investing in the stock market in order to allow your money to workfor you in the best manner possible.


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Charleston Data

Year-to-Date Date Charleston Residential Tri-County

2009 Total sales % change Median sale price % changeJuly 796 9% $181,889 -6%June 732 8% $192,626 3%May* 678 31% $187,000 3%April 518 -9% $181,303 -2%

March 568 56% $185,000 1%February 363 -2% $183,180 4%January 372 - $176,750 -Source: Charleston Regional Business Journal

Vital Sign Market Momentum Chart

Tri-County Existing Residential Sales

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MarketMomentumReading

Above "0" Line: Favorable market conditions.

Below "0" Line: Unfavorable market conditions.

July 2009 = - 36

Recession

Mar 1990- Feb 1991

Recession

Mar 2001- Feb 2002

and 9/11

NASDAQ Correction

Top of the real estate market.


Source: Post and Courier

The Sales Momentum Trend Chart has increased just a bit in a positive manner. This is a direct result of short saleand the cash for home tax credit pushing sales on the lower end. The implosion of this trend chart is just incredibfrom the point when I publicly called real estate was in a Lending Bubble in September 2006. Let us all hope andpray this chart continues to improve but it will depend on the government keeping the tax credit alive after Novemband interest rates remaining low. We are also now exiting the seasonal time for real estate which is the spring andsummer where sales are usually the strongest.


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Charleston real estate conditions are still soft and the rising unemployment rate is not helping the situation. It will real interesting to see the impact of the whether the government decides to keep the $8k cash for homes tax crediplace.

The positive aspect of high inventory and price declines is that housing affordability for buyers will continue toimprove.

Vital Sign Market Momentum Chart

New Building Permits

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MarketMomentumReading

Above "0" Line: Favorable market conditions.

Below "0" Line: Unfavorable market conditions.

NASDAQ Correction

Recession and 9/11

March 2001-February 2002

July 2009 = -40www.charlestonmarketreport.com

Source: US Census


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The Charleston/North Charleston MSA has just surpassed double digit unemployment to 10.2%. Our local

unemployment rate is currently worse than the U.S. unemployment rate of 9.7%. What is worrisome about

this locally is that unemployment continues to worsen here in Charleston.

Charleston- North Charleston, SC (MSA) Unemployment

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Unemploymen

tRate%

Charleston U.S. 13 per. Mov. Avg. (Charleston) 27 per. Mov. Avg. (Charleston)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Created by: Brad Rundbaken



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Multi Family

Single Family


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Employment Growth

Building Permits


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Homes

Condos


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Above are some excellent charts from Will Jenkinson at Carolina One showing how the lower end of the new homemarket has picked up the pace.Source: Carolina One New Homes

www.carolinaone.com


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College of Charleston Home Value Index

August 10, 2009The College of Charleston Monthly Home Value IndexSM indicates that the value of a typical home in the CharlesTri-County Area increased by 1.87% in July 2009. In comparison, the change in the index value was +2.51% in Jun2009 and +8.61 in May 2009.

Source: Carter Real Estate Center

As always it has been a pleasure providing all of you the CMR. I hope you enjoyed it and I appreciate your

support. Have a great month!


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DisclaimerThe research done to gather the data in The Charleston Market Report involves examining thousands of listings. Wthis much data inaccuracies will occur. Care is taken in gathering and processing the data and information within threport is deemed reliable. IT IS NOT GUARANTEED. The real estate market is cyclical and will have its ups anddowns. Past performance cannot determine future performance. The purpose of the Charleston Market Report is toeducate you on current and consistent market conditions by reporting leading market indicators with the support oftraditional real estate data.

This information is offered with the understanding that the author is not engaged in rendering legal, tax or otherprofessional services. If legal, tax or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional arerecommended. This is a personal newsletter reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of myemployer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself.

Investing in real estate is not a get-rich-quick scheme nor is there any guarantee you will make a profit. Every efforhas been made to make this report as complete and accurate as possible. However, there may be mistakes. Thereforthis report should be used only as a general guide and not as the ultimate source for making money in real estate.

August 2009 Charleston Market Report

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