Aug 02 Erste Group Technician

8/9/2019 Aug 02 Erste Group Technician

1/15

Erste Group Technician

Page 1

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Recommendations and opinions in this material are based solely on technical analysis. You can findfundamentally based recommendations in our FI & FX CEE Insights.

Current recommendations:1) Copper long, open @ 329.3, target @ 400, stop-loss @ 319. Lock in levels: 365/340, 380/370. Speculation on

continuation of uptrend. Time horizon: 8 weeks2) Brent short, open @ 82.02, target @ 76, stop-loss @ 83.5. Lock in levels: 80.3/81, 77.5/78.5. Speculation on

rebound from 82 resistance. Time horizon: 1 week3) Lead long, open @ 2110.7, target @ 2380, stop-loss @ 2045. Lock in levels: 2200/2160, 2280/2250.

Speculation on continuation of uptrend. Time horizon: 8 weeks

Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) CommentGold short 1188.55 26.7.2010 1140 1205 +0.91% 5 weeks remainingPlatinum long 1545 26.7.2010 1700 1515 +2.20% 7 weeks remaining

Copper long 329.3 2.8.2010 400 319 8 weeks remainingBrent short 82.02 2.8.2010 76 83.5 1 week remainingLead long 2110.7 2.8.2010 2380 2045 8 weeks remaining

Summary

EUR/CZKPullback to 25.00 level is likely because of strongly oversold conditions. Second possibility is prolonged consolidationin 25.65 25.80 range.

EUR/PLN3.973 level and almost oversold conditions may trigger correction or consolidation. Breakthrough of 3.973 should open

room for another decline towards 3.863, but this does not seem likely in near future.

EUR/HUFStrengthening to 279 level is likely because of downward momentum accumulation.

EUR/RONMost likely short-term technical scenario is consolidation in range defined by 20- and 60-day moving averages.

EUR/TRYConsolidation should continue for some time. Later on, decline is likely, because of development of momentum.

EUR/USDBreakthrough of psychological 1.30 level and 200-day moving average significantly increase risk of continuation of

uptrend to 1.3488 level. However, almost overbought conditions may cause near-term consolidation above mentionedlevels.

EUR/JPYConsolidation should continue for some time. Testing of 113.5 should eventually be successful.

EUR/CHFTesting of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-day moving average is likely. Upward momentum is still strong, albeitweakening.

CopperShort correction is increasingly likely, but trend should continue to 400 level.

Analyst: Lubo [email protected]

Overview of technical recommendations

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research August 2, 2010


2/15


Page 2


EUR/CZK Main trend: decline

Short-term trend: decline

R6: 26.00 psychological, top, bottom

R5: 25.80 consolidations

R4: 25.45 consolidation


R2: 25.00 psychological, bottom


S1: 24.65 bottoms

Koruna broke through psychologically important 25.00level and then strengthened rapidly.

MACD is in declining trend below zero level. It is stronglyoversold.

Both ROCs declined sharply and are showing signs ofrebound. Both are below zero level and are oversold.

RSI is oversold. Pullback to 25.00 level is likely because of strongly

oversold conditions. Second possibility is prolongedconsolidation in 25.65 25.80 range.

Daily QEURCZK= 24.12.2009 - 11.8.2010 (GMT)

26,4007

26,0012

25,7988

25,4584

25,1973

25,0044

24,8137

24,6519

SMA;; 25,1841

EMA;; 25,4019

Cndl;; 24,7220

EMA;; 25,5295

Price

CZK

.1234

24,8

25

25,2

25,4

25,6

25,8

26

26,2

28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURCZK= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

CZK

.1234

-0,2

-0,1

0

Value

CZK

.123

-4

-2

0

2

Value

CZK

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


3/15


Page 3


EUR/PLN Main trend: consolidation


R3: 4.19 top

R2: 4.15 top, consolidation

R1: 4.07 bottoms, Fibonacci level

S1: 3.973 bottom, consolidation

S2: 3.93tops

S3: 3.863 bottom, bottom of consolidation, Fibonacci level

S4: 3.83 top, top of consolidation

Zloty broke through 4.07 level and strengthened to3.973 level. MACD is in volatile downward trend. It declinedbelow zero level. Both ROCs generally declined, but are showing

some signs of rebound. Both are below zero level. RSI declined close to oversold level. 3.973 level and almost oversold conditions maytrigger correction or consolidation. Breakthrough of 3.973 levelshould open room for another decline towards 3.863 level, butthis does not seem likely in near future.

Daily QEURPLN= 22.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

4,068250,0%

3,86361,8%

4,1917

3,9732

Cndl;; 3,9810

3MA;; 4,0586; 4,0594; 4,0611

Price

PLN

.1234

3,84

3,88

3,92

3,96

4

4,04

4,08

4,12

4,16

4,2

28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURPLN= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

PLN

.1234

-0,03

0

0,03

Value

PLN

.123

-5

0

5

Value

PLN

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


4/15


Page 4


EUR/HUF Main trend: growth


R1: 290 tops

S1: 283 top

S2: 279 tops

S3: 273 top, Fibonacci level

S4: 266 tops

S5: 264.5 bottoms

S6: 261.85 Fibonacci level, bottom level of consolidation

range

S7: 258 tops, bottom level of consolidation

Forint is testing 283 level. MACD returned to declining trend. It is above zero level Both ROCs declined. ROC60 is above zero level, ROC20is below zero level. RSI is in sideways trend above neutral level.

Strengthening to 279 level is likely because of downwardmomentum accumulation.

Daily QEURHUF= 22.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

279,02

266

290,03

282,9538,2%

272,450,0%

261,8561,8%

SMA;; 282,83

EMA;; 280,33

Cndl;; 281,53

EMA;; 276,96

Price

HUF

.12

264

267

270

273

276

279

282

285

288

28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURHUF= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

HUF

.12

-1

0

1

2

Value

HUF

.123

0

5

Value

HUF

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


5/15


Page 5


EUR/RON Main trend: growth

Short-term trend: consolidation

R2: 4.385 top

R1: 4.2934 consolidation, top

S1: 4.23 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation

S2: 4.19 bottoms

S3: 4.11 bottoms, Fibonacci level

S4: 4.07 Fibonacci projection, bottoms

S5: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top

S6: 3.80 top

Lei is in consolidation above 4.23 level. MACD is in declining trend above zero level. ROC60 is in consolidation above zero level. ROC60rebounded towards zero level. RSI is in sideways trend slightly above neutral level.

Most likely short-term technical scenario isconsolidation in range defined by 20- and 60-day movingaverages.

Daily QEURRON= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

4,1911

4,0794

4,3848

4,29540,0%

4,108523,6%

SMA;; 4,2485

EMA;; 4,2293

Cndl;; 4,2400

EMA;; 4,2041

Price

RON

.1234

4,08

4,12

4,16

4,2

4,24

4,28

4,32

4,36

18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURRON= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

MACD;; -0,0001; 0,0030

MACDF;; -0,0032Value

RON

.1234

-0,02

0

0,02

ROC;; -0,341

ROC;; 1,850EMA;; 2,588

Value

RON

.123

-4

0

4

RSI;; 46,580

MARSI;; 50,520Value

RON

.123

20

40

60

80

18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


6/15


Page 6


EUR/TRY Main trend: decline

Short-term trend: consolidation

R7: 2.1871 top of consolidation

R6: 2.1447bottom of consolidation

R5: 2.115 Fibonacci level, consolidations

R4: 2.075 bottoms

R3: 2.04 Fibonacci level, bottoms

R1: 2.00 bottom, psychological

S1: 1.967 Fibonacci level, top of consolidation range bottom

S2: 1.8825 bottom of consolidation range

Lira is in consolidation around combination of 20-and 60-day moving averages/1.967 level. MACD is in declining trend. It is above zero level. Both ROCs are close to zero level and in sidewaystrend.

RSI is in sideways slightly above neutral level. Consolidation should continue for some time.Later on, decline is likely because of development ofmomentum.

Daily QEURTRY= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

2,051

1,8988

SMA;; 1,9636

EMA;; 1,9607

Cndl;; 1,9530

EMA;; 1,9912

Price

TRY

.1234

1,92

1,95

1,98

2,010

2,04

2,07

2,1

2,13

18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURTRY= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

TRY

.1234

-0,02

-0,01

0

Value

TRY

.123

-5

0

Value

TRY

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


7/15


Page 7


EUR/USD Main trend: decline

Short-term trend: growth

R3: 1.38 Fibonacci level, top

R2: 1.3488 Fibonacci level

R1: 1.327 local low

S1: 1.300 psychological

S2: 1.290 local low

S3: 1.250 important local low

S4: 1.217 bottom of consolidation

S5: 1.200 psychological

S6: 1.190 bottom

Dollar broke through 1.30 level and 200-day movingaverage. MACD is in slowing upward trend. It is above zerolevel and overbought. Both ROCs are above zero level. ROC20 is in

sideways trend and ROC60 is in rising trend. RSI is slightly below overbought level. Breakthrough of psychological 1.30 level and 200-daymoving average significantly increase risk of continuation ofuptrend to 1.3488 level. However, almost overboughtconditions may cause near-term consolidation abovementioned levels.

Daily QEUR= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

1,45123,6%

1,411938,2%

1,380450,0%

1,348861,8%

1,2466100,0%

1,1907

SMA;1,2852

EMA;1,2740

Cndl;1,3064

EMA;1,2990

Price

USD

.1234

1,2

1,23

1,26

1,29

1,32

1,35

1,38

1,41

1,44

18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEUR= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

USD

.1234

-0,02

-0,01

0

Value

USD

.123

-10

-5

0

Value

USD

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


8/15


Page 8


EUR/JPY Main trend: decline Short-term trend: consolidation

R7: 132.5 Fibonacci level

R6: 129.0 tops of consolidations, Fibonacci level

R5: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops, Fibonacci level

R4: 123.0 Fibonacci levelR3: 120.74 Fibonacci level, bottom

R2: 117.0 bottoms

R1: 113.5 bottom

S1: 110 psychological

S2: 108.7 bottom

EURJPY is testing 113.5 level. MACD is in rising trend above zero level. Both ROCs first sharply rose, then sharply declined.ROC20 is above zero level, ROC60 is below zero level. RSI is in slow rising trend above neutral level.

Consolidation should continue for some time. Testingof 113.5 level should eventually be successful.

Daily QEURJPY= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

120,74

108,72

132,5423,6%

128,9138,2%

125,9750,0%

123,0461,8%

113,54100,0%

SMA;; 112,45

EMA;; 113 ,61

Cndl;; 113,27

EMA;; 117 ,13

Price

JPY

.12

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURJPY= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

JPY

.12

-3

-2

-1

0

ValueJPY

.123

-10

-5

0

Value

JPY

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


9/15


Page 9


EUR/CHF Main trend: decline


R4: 1.435 top of consolidation

R3: 1.4257 bottom

R2: 1.4000 psychological

R1: 1.3758 low

S1: 1.318 low

EURCHF is testing 1.3758 level. MACD is sharply rising. It is just above zero level. Both ROCs are rising. ROC20 is above zero level,ROC60 remains below zero level. RSI is in volatile upward trend above neutral level.

Testing of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-daymoving average is likely. Upward momentum is still strong, albeitweakening.

Daily QEURCHF= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

1,42570,0%

1,474423,6%

1,504438,2%

1,435

1,3758

1,3184

SMA;1,3514

EMA;1,3741

Cndl;1,3675

EMA;1,4020

Price

CHF

.1234

1,32

1,34

1,36

1,38

1,4

1,42

1,44

1,46

1,48

18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURCHF= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

CHF

.1234

-0,02

-0,015

-0,01

-0,005

0

Value

CHF

.123

-4

0

Value

CHF

.123

20

40

60

80

04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


10/15


Page 10


Copper Main trend: consolidation


R4: 400 psychological, top

R3: 380 consolidation

R2: 360 top, bottoms

R1: 330 top, bottom

S1: 315 bottoms

S2: 300 psychological, top, bottom

S3: 280 bottoms

Copper is in sharp rising trend. MACD is in rising trend above zero level. It isoverbought. Both ROCs are in sharp rising trend. Both are abovezero level.

RSI is touching overbought level. Short correction is increasingly likely, but trend shouldcontinue to 400 level.

Daily QCU-NYC 27.12.2009 - 3.8.2010 (GMT)

SMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last) ; 20;

30.7.2010; 312,07

EMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last) ; 60;

30.7.2010; 313,32

Line; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Las t);

30.7.2010; 335,90

EMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last) ; 120;

30.7.2010; 316,15

Price

USc

Lbs

.12

284

288

292

296

300

304

308

312

316

320

324

328

332

336

340

344

348

352

356

28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QCU-NYC 7.1.2010 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

Value

USc

Lbs

.12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

Value

USc

Lbs

.123

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Value

USc

Lbs

.123

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02

I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10


11/15


Page 11


Closed trading ideasInstrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) CommentEURRON long 3.529 18.8.2008 3.660 3.40 +0.45% closed on timeEURHUF short 233.86 25.8.2008 229.00 236.00 -1.13% closed stop-loss

EURUSD long 1.4788 25.8.2008 1.5600 1.4580 -1.41% closed stop-lossCopper long 357.23 25.8.2008 398.00 355.00 -0.62% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.4605 1.9.2008 1.5600 1.4480 -0.86% closed stop lossGold long 774.2 15.9.2008 860 745 +11.11%closed on targetEURCZK long 24.128 15.9.2008 24.90 23.90 -0.9% closed stop lossEURPLN short 3.343 15.9.2008 3.22 3.365 -0.65% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.418 15.9.2008 1.56 1.44 +1.55% closed lock inEURJPY long 156.23 22.9.2008 168.0 153.8 -1.56% closed stop lossOil Brent long 101.7 22.9.2008 118 98 -3.64% closed stop lossCopper long 314.33 29.9.2008 330 309 -1.7% closed stop lossLead short 1858 29.9.2008 1770 1895 +4.97% closed on targetGold short 896.4 29.9.2008 870 910 -1.49% closed stop lossPlatinum long 1087,5 29.9.2008 1230 1060 -2.53% closed stop loss

Brent long 85.2 6.10.2008 80 87 +6.5% closed on targetEURHUF long 251.2 6.10.2008 258 248 -1.27% closed stop lossOil Brent long 76 13.10.2008 90 74.5 +2.56% closed lock inBrent long 69.6 20.10.2008 90.0 68.0 -2.30% closed stop lossEURJPY long 136.7 13.10.2008 156.0 133.0 -2.71% closed stop lossEURPLN short 3.55 13.10.2008 3.28 3.63 -2.20% closed stop lossEURHUF short 268.38 20.10.2008 245.0 274.0 -2.05% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.3428 20.10.2008 1.4300 1.3220 -1.94% closed stop lossCopper short 223.85 20.10.2008 145.0 190.0 +17.82% closed lock inGold long 730 27.10.2008 830 740.0 +1.37% closed lock inEURCHF short 1.4412 27.10.2008 1.3620 1.4650 -1.62 closed stop lossPlatinum short 751 27.10.2008 600 775 -3.1% closed stop lossEURUSD short 1.2462 27.10.2008 1.1830 1.2650 -1.49% closed stop loss

EURRON long 3.744 10.11.2008 3.970 3.650 +0.96% closed lock inEURJPY long 116.41 27.10.2008 140.0 120.0 +3.08% closed lock inPlatinum short 859 10.11.2008 595 905 +2.44% closed on timeLead long 1225 24.11.2008 1475 1175 -4.08% closed stop lossBrent long 47.64 24.11.2008 65 44.8 -6.02% closed stop lossCopper long 175 10.11.2008 300 145 -17.14% closed stop lossEURRON short 3.80 24.11.2008 3.60 3.88 -2.06% closed stop lossEURROL short 4.3145 12.1.2009 4.070 4.420 +1.28% closed lock inEURUSD short 1.3355 12.1.2009 1.275 1.365 +3.1% closed on timeEURCHF long 1.4883 12.1.2009 1.570 1.46 +1.01% closed on timeEURJPY long 118.57 19.1.2009 133.0 116.0 -2.17% closed stop lossPlatinum short 947.5 19.1.2009 880 975 -2.27% closed on timeLead short 1159 26.1.2009 1055 1220 +3.95% closed on timeEURRON short 4.2465 26.1.2009 4.0700 4.32 -1.7% closed stop lossEURCHF long 1.5032 26.1.2009 1.57 1.483 -1.34% closed stop lossCopper long 149.6 19.1.2009 240.0 155.0 +3.61% %closed lock inEURPLN short 4.818 16.2.2009 4.42 4.87 -1.07% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.2588 2.3.2009 1.2980 1.2450 -0.18% closed on timeEURCZK long 28.18 2.3.2009 29.80 28.00 -0.64% closed stop lossGold long 932.7 2.3.2009 985.0 920.0 -1.36% closed stop lossEURJPY long 117.15 16.2.2009 128.0 121.0 +6.10% closed on timeGold long 914.65 9.3.2009 985 920 +0.58% closed lock inEURPLN short 4.4458 16.3.2009 3.95 4.55 -2.29% closed stop lossEURJPY short 128 16.3.2009 117 129.5 -1.16% closed stop lossEURUSD long 1.3005 16.3.2009 1.43 1.35 +3.81% closed lock inEURJPY long 131.58 23.3.2009 150 128 -2.40% closed stop lossLead long 1286 16.3.2009 1500 1180 +3.42% closed on timeOil Brent long 51.45 23.3.2009 70 47 -8.65% closed stop loss


12/15


Page 12

Technician Macro/Fixed Income ResearchEURCZK long 27.45 30.3.2009 28.70 26.90 -2.32% closed stop lossEURUSD short 1.3194 30.3.2009 1.28 1.3325 -0.98% closed stop lossEURPLN short 4.4351 6.4.2009 4.15 4.55 +2.29% closed on timeEURCZK long 26.591 6.4.2009 27.90 26.30 -0.94% closed on timeCopper long 147.15 23.2.2009 240.0 200.0 +35.92% closed lock inEURPLN short 4.382 11.5.2009 4.12 4.42 -0.86% closed stop loss

EURUSD long 1.351 18.5.2009 1.280 1.365 -1.03% closed stop lossGold long 929.4 18.5.2009 980 918 +5.44% closed profit targetEUR/PLN short 4.409 25.5.2009 4.16 4.46 -1.1% closed stop lossBrent short 70.51 15.6.2009 49.5 70.0 +0.73% closed lock inEURUSD short 1.386 22.6.2009 1.3617 1.395 -0.65% closed stop lossEURCZK short 26.03 22.6.2009 24.80 26.45 +0.5% closed on timePlatinum short 1183.5 29.6.2009 1120 1210 +3.54% closed on timeEURJPY short 132.67 22.6.2009 115.5 136.5 -2.81% closed stop lossGold short 953.25 10.8.2009 910 973 +1.61% closed on timePlatinum short 1242 10.8.2009 1110 1330 -1.00% closed on timeEURJPY short 132.87 17.8.2009 128 135.3 -1.80% stop lossEURPLN short 4.1105 24.8.2009 3.98 4.155 +0.26% closed on timeCopper short 288.12 17.8.2009 255 295 -2.33% closed stop loss

EURJPY short 133.04 31.8.2009 126.5 134.5 +0.54% closed on timeGold short 999.0 14.9.2009 955.0 1010.000 -1.08% closed stop lossPlatinum long 1349.5 19.10.2009 1440 1335 -1.07% closed stop lossBrent short 78.59 26.10.2009 72.1 80.6 +4.09% closed lock inLead short 2304.852.11.2009 2250 2350 +0.34% closed on timeEURCZK short 26.11 30.11.2009 25.45 26.55 +1.3% closed on timeEURHUF short 273.05 30.11.2009 264 276.5 +1.31% closed on timeEURJPY long 130.4 30.11.2009 135 128.5 -0.61% closed on timeEURHUF short 273.69 14.12.2009 266 276.5 -0.66% closed stop lossEURJPY long 129.6 14.12.2009 134.5 128.0 -1.23% closed stop lossCopper short 316 14.12.2009 285 330 -2.80% closed on timeBrent long 73.21 21.12.2009 78 71 +6.54% closed profit targetEURJPY long 129.94 21.12.2009 138 127.5 +3.36% closed on time

EURUSD long 1.436 21.12.2009 1.53 1.415 +0.08% closed on timeEURCZK short 26.26 4.1.2010 25.55 26.55 +1.54% closed on timeCopper long 339.5 18.1.2010 400 325 -4.27% stop lossLead short 2250.3 25.1.2010 2080 2285 +8.19% closed profit targetEURJPY long 127.66 25.1.2010 138 125 -2.08% stop lossEURCHF long 1.4722 1.2.2010 1.4950 1.4620 -0.69% stop lossPlatinum long 1530 1.2.2010 1640 1475 +1.31% lock inBrent long 72.17 1.2.2010 82 70.5 +3.23% lock inCopper short 308.6 1.2.2010 280 316 +6.53% closed on timeGold short 1122.7522.2.2010 1060 1145 +0.53% closed on timeEURUSD long 1.362 22.2.2010 1.408 1.342 -0.85% closed on timeEURJPY short 120.59 1.3.2010 117 122.3 -1.40% stop lossBrent long 72.17 15.2.2010 82.0 79.5 +10.16%lock in

Lead long 2181 1.3.2010 2350 2240 +2.71% lock inPlatinum long 1550 1.3.2010 1640 1520 +4.13% closed on timeGold short 1125.9 8.3.2010 1064 1145 +2.10% closed on timeCopper short 338.6 22.3.2010 290 345 -1.86% stop lossEURPLN long 3.893 22.3.2010 4.05 3.87 -0.59% stop lossLead long 2186 29.3.2010 2600 2080 +0.87% closed on timeEURRON long 4.1225 12.4.2010 4.23 4.10 +0.76% closed on timePlatinum long 1725.5 12.4.2010 2000 1670 -3.22% stop lossCopper short 353.3 26.4.2010 342 357 +3.3% closed profit targetEURRON short 4.1161 26.4.2010 3.95 4.145 -0.7% stop lossPlatinum long 1744.5 26.4.2010 2200 1640 -5.99% stop lossEURON short 4.126 3.5.2010 3.95 4.165 -0.94% stop lossCopper long 329.6 3.5.2010 362 325 -1.40% stop loss

Gold long 1183 3.5.2010 1215 1165 -1.52% stop lossLead short 2230 3.5.2010 2020 2275 +10.4% closed profit targetEURHUF long 273.7 10.5.2010 269 275.5 -0.65% stop loss


13/15


Page 13

Technician Macro/Fixed Income ResearchLead long 2110 10.5.2010 2200 2070 -1.90% stop lossCopper long 321.45 10.5.2010 335 315 -2.01% stop lossGold short 1193.4 10.5.2010 1080 1215 -1.78% stop lossEURJPY long 114.6 17.5.2010 120 112 -2.27% stop lossBrent long 74.17 17.5.2010 79 73 -1.58% stop lossCopper long 305.25 17.5.2010 325 298 -2.38% stop loss

Lead short 1903 17.5.2010 1600 1950 +7.51% lock inCopper long 305.25 17.5.2010 325 298 -2.61% stop lossBrent long 69.63 25.5.2010 79 67 -3.78% stop lossPlatinum long 1526 25.5.2010 1640 1450 +2.39% closed on timeLead short 1830 25.5.2010 1520 1860 +7.65% lock inEURJPY long 111.95 25.5.2010 119 108 -2.82% closed on timeEURPLN short 4.10 25.5.2010 3.86 4.22 +0.61% closed on timeCopper short 307.15 31.5.2010 295 314 +4.12% closed profit targetGold short 1216.2 31.5.2010 1140 1230 -1.12% stop lossEURPLN short 4.0322 21.6.2010 3.87 4.08 -1.17% stop lossEURJPY long 112.98 21.6.2010 126 111 -1.75% stop lossEURCHF long 1.3729 21.6.2010 1.395 1.367 -0.43% stop lossBrent short 77.24 28.6.2010 74.00 78.00 +4.38% closed profit target

Lead long 1840 28.6.2010 2000 1815 -1.36% stop lossPlatinum long 1561.5 31.5.2010 1740 1500 -3.94% stop lossGold long 1202.6 12.7.2010 1240 1195 -0.63% stop lossEURCHF long 1.3371 12.7.2010 1.3758 1.3255 +1.5% closed on time


14/15


Page 14


ContactsGroup ResearchHead of Group ResearchFriedrich Mostbck, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11902 Research Turkey

CEE Equity Research Head: Erkin Sahinoz (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2540Co-Head: Gnther Artner, CFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11523 Ali Cakiroglu (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2536Co-Head: Henning Ekuchen +43 (0)5 0100 - 19634 Sadrettin Bagci (Equity) +90 212 371 2537

Gnter Hohberger (Banks) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17354 Can Oztoprak (Equity) +90 212 371 2539Franz Hrl, CFA (Steel, Construction) +43 (0)5 0100 - 18506 Research, SlovakiaGernot Jany, CFA (Banks, Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11903 Head: Juraj Barta, CFA (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4166Daniel Lion, CIIA (IT) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17420 Michal Musak (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4512Christoph Schultes, CIIA (Insurance, Utility) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16314 Maria Valachyova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4185Thomas Unger; CFA (Oil&Gas) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17344 Research, UkraineVera Sutedja, CFA (Telecom) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11905 Head: Victor Stefanyshyn (Fixed Income) +38 044 593 - 1784Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17343 Svitlana Bazilevich (Equity) +38 044 593 - 9286Gerald Walek, CFA (Machinery) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16360 Maryan Zablotskyy (Fixed income) +38 044 593 - 9188International Equities Fixed Income & Credit Institutional SalesHans Engel (Market strategist) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19835 Group Institutional SalesStephan Lingnau (Europe) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16574 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)50100 - 84254Ronald Stferle (Asia) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11723 Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales G7 Macro/Fixed Income Research Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 - 84323Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Euroland) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11909 Institutional Sales AustriaMildred Hager (SW, Japan) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17331 Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 84323Alihan Karadagoglu (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19633 Martina Fux +43 (0)50100 - 84113Peter Kaufmann (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11183 Michael Konczer +43 (0)50100 - 84121Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19632 Margit Hraschek +43 (0)50100 - 84117

Rainer Singer (US) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11185 Institutional Sales GermanyElena Statelov, CIIA (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19641 Head: Ingo Lusch +43 (0)50100 - 84111Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE Michael Schmotz +43 (0)50100 - 84114Co-Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17357 Institutional Sales LondonCo-Head CEE: Rainer Singer (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 11185 Antony Brown +44 20 7623 - 4159Editor Research CEE Lukas Linsbichler +44 20 7623 - 4159Brett Aarons +420 233 005 904 Simone Pilz +44 20 7263 - 4159Research, Croatia/Serbia Institutional Sales SlovakiaHead: Mladen Dodig +381 11 22 00 866 Head: Peter Kniz +421 2 4862-5624Damir Cukman (Equity) +385 62 37 2812 Sarlota Sipulova +421 2 4862-5629Alen Kovac (Fixed income) +385 62 37 1383 Institutional Sales Czech RepublicDavor Spoljar (Equity) +385 62 37 2825 Head: Ondrej Cech +420 2 2499 - 5577

Pavel Zdichynec +420 2 2499 - 5590Research, Czech Republic Milan Bartos +420 2 2499 - 5562Head: David Navratil (Fixed income) +420 224 995 439 Radek Chupik +420 2 2499 - 5565Petr Bartek (Equity) +420 224 995 227 Institutional Sales Croatia, Hungary, RomaniaVaclav Kminek (Media) +420 224 995 289 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)501 00 - 84254Jana Krajcova (Fixed income) +420 224 995 232 Institutional Sales Croatia

Radim Kramule (Oil&Gas) +420 224 995 213 Natalija Petljak +385 (0)6237 - 1638Martin Lobotka (Fixed income) +420 224 995 192 Institutional Sales HungaryLubos Mokras (Fixed income) +420 224 995 456 Istvan Kovacs +36 1 235 5846Research, Hungary Norbert Siklosi +36 1 235 - 5842Head: Jzsef Mir (Equity) +361 235-5131 Institutional Sales RomaniaBernadett Papp (Equity) +361 235-5135 Ruxandra Carlan +40 21 310-4449-612Gergely Gabler (Equity) +361 253-5133 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253Zoltan Arokszallasi (Fixed income) +361 373-2830 International & High End SalesResearch, Poland Head: Zachary Carvell +43 (0)50100 - 83308Head: Artur Iwanski (Equity) +48 22 330 6253 Piotr Zagan +43 (0)50100 - 84256Magda Zabieglik (Equity) +48 22 330 6250 Ulrich Inhofner +43 (0)50100 - 84324Tomasz Kasowicz (Equity) +48 22 330 6251 Darko Horvatin +43 (0)50100 - 84259Piotr Lopaciuk (Equity) +48 22 330 6252 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253Marek Czachor (Equity) +48 22 330 6254Tomasz Kasowicz (Equity) +48 22 330 6251Bianka Madej (Equity) +48 22 330 6260Research, RomaniaHead: Lucian Claudiu Anghel +40 21 312 6773Mihai Caruntu (Equity) +40 21 311 27 54

Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income) +40 21 312 6773 1028Cristian Mladin (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028Eugen Sinca (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028Raluca Ungureanu (Equity) +40 21311 2754

Treasury - Erste Bank ViennaSaving Banks & Sales RetailHead: Thomas Schaufler +43 (0)5 0100 - 84225Equity Retail SalesHead: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 - 84232Fixed Income & Certificate SalesHead: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 - 84239Treasury Domestic SalesHead: Gottfried Huscava +43 (0)5 0100 - 84142Corporate SalesHead: Christian Skopek +43 (0)5 0100 - 84146


15/15



Published by Erste Group Bank AG, Neutorgasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria.

Phone +43 (0)5 0100 17357 or 11185.

Erste Bank Homepage: www.erstegroup.com On Bloomberg please type: ERBK .

This research report was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG (Erste Group) or its affiliate named herein. The information herein has been obtained from, and anyopinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions,forecasts and estimates herein reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The report is not intended to be an offer, or thesolicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time, Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or itsaffiliates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may makea market or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or its affiliatesmay from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of a company being reported on herein. Further information on thesecurities referred to herein may be obtained from Erste Group upon request. Past performance is not necessarily indicative for future results and transactions insecurities, options or futures can be considered risky. Not all transactions are suitable for every investor. Investors should consult their advisor, to make sure that theplanned investment fits into their needs and preferences and that the involved risks are fully understood. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published

without the prior consent of Erste Group. Erste Group Bank AG confirms that it has approved any investment advertisements contained in this material. Erste GroupBank AG is regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.

Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations.

Aug 02 Erste Group Technician

Documents

Transcript of Aug 02 Erste Group Technician