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Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes A Multi-Year Study Supported by the Great Lakes...
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Transcript of Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes A Multi-Year Study Supported by the Great Lakes...
Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great LakesA Multi-Year Study Supported by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative
Principal Investigator: Dr. Mark Cohen, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
FY10 GLRI funding: Baseline analysis for 2005 Used “EDAS” meteorological data
One set of model parameters and emissions data
Summary: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_Atmos_Mercury_Summary.pdf
Final Report: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_FY2010_Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2011_Dec_16.pdf
Recent Presentations: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/Cohen_ARL_Seminar_Feb_7_2013.pptxhttp://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/ICMGP_2013_Edinburgh_Cohen_Presentation.pptx
FY11 GLRI funding: Sensitivity analysis Used “NARR” meteorological data
Numerous variations of model parameters and emissions data
Overall results – even for largest variations found – not changed dramatically
Conclusion: results are robust
Final Report: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_FY2011_Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2013_June_30.pdf
FY12 GLRI funding: Analysis of alternative future emissions scenarios Work is beginning on this policy-relevant analysis
FY13 GLRI funding (and beyond): Updates to more recent years
Natural23%
Ocean Re-emission
14%
U.S.32%
China14%
Canada3%
India2%
Other Countries12%
Sources of Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes Basin2005 Baseline Analysis
Total = 11,300 kg/yr
Natural16%
Ocean Re-emission
10%
U.S.49%
China10%
Canada4%
India1%
Other Countries9%
Sources of Mercury Deposition to the Lake Erie Basin
2005 Baseline Analysis
Total = 2,300 kg/yr
2
Comparison of precipitation measured by rain gauges at Mercury Deposition Network sites with that in the EDAS and NARR
meteorological datasets used to drive the HYSPLIT-Hg model
EDAS used in Phase 1 baseline analysis
NARR used in Phase 2 sensitivity analysis
3
U.S, 45%
China, 11%
Canada, 4%
Mexico, 1%
India, 1%
other countries,
9%
ocean re-emit, 11%
natural, 18%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to Lake Erie
(EDAS met data)
U.S, 39%
China, 13%
Canada, 3%Mexico, 1%
India, 2%
other countries,
10%
ocean re-emit, 12%
natural, 20%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to Lake Erie
(NARR met data)
U.S, 34%
China, 16%
Canada, 3%Mexico, 1%India, 2%
other countries,
12%
ocean re-emit, 16%
natural, 16%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to Lake Erie
(NARR met data + "high-range" re-emissions)
U.S, 32%
China, 14%
Canada, 3%Mexico, 1%India, 2%
other countries,
11%
ocean re-emit, 14%
natural, 23%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes Basin
(EDAS met data)
U.S, 23%
China, 17%
Canada, 2%
Mexico, 1%India, 2%
other countries,
13%
ocean re-emit, 16%
natural, 26%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes Basin
(NARR met data)
Overall source attribution results not changed dramatically for Lake Erie (top) or the Great Lakes Basin (bottom) for largest variations in modeling
methodology; 2005 baseline (left); variations (center & right)
U.S, 19%
China, 20%
Canada, 1%Mexico, 1%
India, 3%
other countries,
16%
ocean re-emit, 20%
natural, 20%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes Basin
(NARR met data + "high range" re-emissions)
U.S, 45%
China, 11%
Canada, 4%
Mexico, 1%
India, 1%
other countries,
9%
ocean re-emit, 11%
natural, 18%
Contributions to 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to Lake Erie
(EDAS met data)
4
2005 Atmospheric Mercury Emissions from Large Point Sources
Type of Emissions Sourcecoal-fired power plantsother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgicalmanufacturing & other
Emissions (kg/yr)
10-50
50-100
100–300
5-10
300–500
500–1000
1000–3000
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory 5
2005 Atmospheric Mercury Emissions (Direct Anthropogenic + Re-emit + Natural)
Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory 6
7
Geographical Distribution of 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Contributions to Lake Erie
Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis
Here’s where the mercury came from that was deposited to Lake Erie
8
-500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
< 50
0 km
500
-1,0
00 k
m
1,00
0 -3
,000
km
3,00
0 -1
0,00
0 km
10,0
00 -
20,0
00 km
Mer
cury
Em
issi
ons
(Mg/
yr)
Distance of Emissions Source from the Center of Lake Erie
Emissions from Natural Sources
Emissions from Re-Emissions
Emissions from Anthropogenic Sources
A tiny fraction of 2005 global mercury emissions within 500 km of Lake Erie
-
50
100
150
200
250
< 50
0 km
500
-1,0
00 k
m
1,00
0 -3,
000
km
3,00
0 -10
,000
km
10,0
00 -
20,0
00 k
m
Dep
ositi
on C
ontr
ibuti
on (
kg/y
r)
Distance of Emissions Source from the Center of Lake Erie
Contributions from Natural Sources
Contributions from Re-Emissions
Contributions from Anthropogenic Sources
Modeling results show that these “regional” emissions are responsible for a large fraction of the modeled 2005 atmospheric deposition
Important policy implications!
Results can be shown in many ways…
9
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Rank of Source's Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Contribution to Lake Erie
Top 50 Atmospheric Deposition Contributors to Lake Erie
coal fired power plants
other fuel combustion
waste incineration
metallurgical
manufacturing and other
Based on estimated 2005 mercury emissions, e.g., from the 2005 USEPA National Emissions Inventory, and atmospheric fate and transport simulations with the NOAA HYSPLIT-Hg model