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wb394321Typewritten Text63413

ATLAS OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

,....: Collins THE WORLD BANK

Washington, D.C.

2007 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org

All rights reserved.

Design HarperCollins Publishers

Published for the World Bank by Collins. An imprint ofHarper Collins Publishers Westerhill Road Bishopbriggs Glasgow G64 2QT

Collins Do More www.collins.co.uk

First Published 2007

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe Executive Directors ofthe International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part ofThe World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions ofthe work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.

ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6856-5 E-ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6857-2 DOl: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6857-2

CIP data Printed and bound by Imago, Singapore

Contents 4 Acknowledgements

5 Foreword

6 Classification ofeconomies

8 Rich and poor

Measuring income IGrowth and opportunity IHow poor is poor?

24 People The world's growing population IDemographic transitions People on the move

38 Education Education opens doors IGender and development

46 Health Children under five-struggling to survive

Improving the health ofmothers

Communicable diseases-too little progress

58 Economy Structure ofthe world's economy I Infrastructure for development Investment for growth I Improving the investment climate Governance IThe integrating world Aid for development IExternal debt

92 Environment The urban environment Feeding a growing world IA thirsty planet gets thirstier Forests IEnergy use and a warmer world

122 Statistics Key indicators ofdevelopment Ranking ofeconomies by GNI per capita The need for statistics Millennium Development Goals, targets and indicators Definitions, sources, notes, and abbreviations

143 Index

Acknowledgements

The text and data of the Atlas of Global Development were prepared by the Development Data Group of the World Bank under the management of Shaida Badiee. The team consisted ofMehdi Akhlaghi, Uranbileg Baljargal, David Cieslikowski, Mahyar Eshragh-Tabary, Richard Fix, Amy Heyman, Masako Hiraga, Raymond Muhula, Sulekha Patel, William Prince, Changqing Sun, Eric Swanson, and K. M. Vijayalakshmi. Sebastien Dessus, Shahrokh Fardoust, Jeff Lecksell, Jeff Lewis, M. H. Saeed Ordoubadi, and Giovanni Ruta made valuable contributions. Denise Bergeron, Valentina Kalk, Stephen McGroarty, and Santiago Pombo from the World Bank's Office of the Publisher oversaw publication and dissemination of the book.

The Publishing, Design, Editorial, Creative Services, and Database teams at Collins Reference, HarperCollins Publishers, provided overall design direction, editorial control, mapping, and DTP origination.

Picture credits Curt Carnemark/World Bank 10, 14, 20, 22, 30, 68, 84, 106, 108, 117, 118; Kevin CoombsjReuters/ Corbis 86; Francis Dobbs/World Bank 80; Douglas Engle/Corbis 111 (top); J. Emilio Flores/Corbis 36; Alan Ginoux/World Bank 82; Masuru Goto/World Bank 56; Louise Gubb/Corbis 102; YosefHadar/ World Bank 18; Collart Herve/Corbis Sygma 93; Tran Thi Hoa/World Bank 52; Arne Hoel/World Bank 71; Anvar nyasov/World Bank 100; Ed Kasbi/Corbis 76; Kazuyoshi/Corbis 114; Bob Krist/ Corbis 24; Frans LantingfCorbis 112; Bill Lyons/World Bank 64; Stephanie Maze/Corbis 96; Gideon Mende1/Corbis 59 (bottom); Eric Miller/World Bank 63,72,89 (top); Viviane Moos/Corbis 89 (bottom), 94; Stephen Morrison/epa/Corbis 74; Shehzad Noorani/World Bank 54; Charles O'Rear/Corbis 75; Anatoliy Rakhimbayev/World Bank 99, 105; Gennadiy RatushenkojWorld Bank 44; Reuters/Corbis 33; Trevor SamsonjWorld Bank 13, 40; Dominic Sansoni/World Bank 79; Alfredo Srur/World Bank 48; Shannon StapletonjReuters/Corbis 34; Eberhard Streichan/Zefa/Corbis 120; Wendy Stone/Corbis 26; William Taufic/Corbis 59 (top); UNEP 111 (bottom); Ami Vitale/World Bank 39; Scott Wallace/World Bank 60; Ray WitlinjWorld Bank 47, 51; Adam Woolfitt/Corbis 90.

Foreword

Development is a multidimensional process characterized by economic growth, investment and technological progress, transformation ofnatural resources, demographic change, advances in health and education, and evolution of social and political institutions. The results of development should be measurable by increases in output, improvements in the welfare ofpeople, greater efficiency in the use of scarce resources, and a balance between human needs and the capacity of the environment to provide for those needs.

Because development is a complex process, it cannot be measured by a single yardstick. Simply measuring the size ofan economy or its rate ofgrowth tells us little about who benefited from growth, whether they are better educated and healthier, or if the air, water, and land around them have been degraded. Furthermore, there is no simple or unique path to development. Countries have different endowments and different opportunities. Some have first developed their agricultural sectors and then industrialized; others with great mineral wealth have remained primary commodity producers; and some are rapidly developing their service sectors. Export-led growth is a recent prescription for development, but small countries have always needed to trade for the goods and services they need, while large countries with large hinterlands can remain more self-sufficient.

Development is a process that never ends. We speak loosely ofdeveloped and developing countries, but no country or society ever stops developing. Rich countries as well as poor countries face the challenge ofmeeting their current needs

while ensuring that future generations inherit a better and more productive world. Statistics, it has been said, are the eyes of the policy maker. They are also the eyes of citizens. Through them we can see development in action. We can identifY places ofgreat need, we can set goals for improvement, and we can measure success or take stock offailures. Statistics, therefore, are an important means of enforcing accountability on governments, businesses, and other actors.

To be useful, statistics must be reliable. And to help us understand the global process of development, they must be comparable across countries and over time. This book seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of the world's development at the beginning ofthe 21st century. It draws on the large set of statistical indicators that have been collected by the World Bank to guide its development programs. These indicators come from many sources. Most have been collected by agencies of the United Nations and shared by them as part oftheir mandate to increase knowledge and understanding. But all have their origins in work carried out in countries, usually by statistical offices or other public agencies, sometimes under very adverse conditions, in order to provide the basic information needed to manage their economies and provide services to their citizens.

We hope that readers ofthis book will find it informative, that it will expand their view ofthe world. And that they will recognize both the formidable challenges and the great successes that have been achieved in creating a better world for all.

FTan~ois BOUTBui,gnon Senior Vice President and Chief Economist World Bank

Classification of economies

" U n i t ed S t ate s

\'> .

Low- and middle-income economies

East Asia &: Pacific Europe &: Central Asia Latin America &. the Caribbean Middle East 8( North AfrlCd South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

High-income economie( OEeD

Other

no data

The World Bank classifies economies as low economies in the group are experiencing income, middle income (subdivided into lower similar development or that other economies middle and upper middle), or high income have reached a preferred or final stage of based on gross national income (GNI) per development. capita. Low- and middle-income economies are sometimes referred to as developing The regions used in this atlas are based on economies. It is not intended to imply that all the regions defined by the World Bank for

A u S 1 r i1 I i a lr-~'

. ..... - .....

N~w~.'" (olttfon(o y IF,)

I

b' Following its referendum on independence in May 2006, Montenegro declared its independence from the union of Serbia and Montenegro,

resulting in both states becoming separate nations

analytical and operational purposes. These regions may differ from common geographic usage or from the regions defined by other organizations. Regional groupings and the aggregate measures for regions include only low- and middle-income economies.

/

Data are shown for economies as they were constituted in 2005. Additional information about the data is provided in World Development Indicators 2006 or on the World Bank website (www.worldbank.orgfdata).

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

,--

-

,--

,--

- -

,--

--

--

,--

--

- --

- - - - -

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

High.income High-i ncome countries countries 54% 79"';'

Life expectancy at birth (years) 2004 100

80 C I:b DeB Dca 00 _1U~~qlitJ5Sb ~ 0 dlJllbI3 cP 0 o ~ - - - 0 - - - - - - - - - - - -S~b-Saha;a~ ~o~~trie~ ~ithhigh pr~~le-n~e-of ~

[J CC C HIV/AIOS: Botswana, Equatorial Guinea, GClbon ,1 ~ ~ _ _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _~ ____ ~s..?~~ ~~~i~a..: ~o~t~ ~f~c~I:~d_S~~i~a~~ ~

o o oUnited Stat es

200~----~~~~~~1 ~------------~~~~----------~~--------------~~--------------~ 10,000 20,000 40,000 50,000

Under-five mortality rate (deaths per i ,OOO children) 2004 300

DEquatorial Guinea

o

o

o

100

80

60

Tajikistan / .. ,..

.(1 II.! ~. . ;.,........

..

20 r!I Y 40

C-Mozambique

~ .

.#

., ..

,

Norway

50000

Each square represents one country

Iceland

Net enrollment rate for secondary school (%) 2004

Income GNI per capita, World Bank Atlas method, 2005

Low-income countries ($875 or less) Lower-middle-income countries (S876--S3,46S) -J... Upper-middle-income countries ($3,466-$l0,7~) High-income countries (SlO,726 or more) no data

Un I t ed

Latin America 8{ Caribbean $4,010

GNI per capita 2005

/

Rich and poor ~

Europe 8t Central Asia $4,110

-East Asia 8t Pacific $1,630

' ,'. Nrw ,~ . CalrdoniQ . (F'i

J!. 1 N~ ZeOlf~nd ...

," +

-- --------

High-income countries

Developing countries

1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1 990 1990-~OOO 2000-~OOS

Source: World Development Indicators database

- -- - -- -~~---------

I I ' I

12 ,------------------------ ----------- A growth incidence curve Growth incidence curve, China, 1993-1996 shows how fast income

grew at each income level.

-~~ 10 r --............. In China, between 1990 and ~ ~ ",,::===~=====~~~===~, ..c..r:! ~ 1999, the incomes of the

~-o. wealthiest people grew e~ \

Oll t 4 __ Growth incidence curve, China, 1990-1999 fastest. ~ "- ,c:: But for a brief period, c:: between 1993 and 1996,

OL-_~L__~___L___L__~__~__L__~L__~____" poor people's income grew o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 faster (yellow line).

Population ranked by income per capita (%) Source: Ravallion and Chen, Measuring pro-poor growth, Economics letters (2003)

School participation rate (%), age 6-11, by wealth quintile 120 ,-------------------------------------

DVietnam

l00 ~----------_===~--_.===o----_=~----~==~

80

60

40

20

Poorest quintjl~

Second quintil~

Third quintile

Fourth quintil~

Source: Demograph ic and He.lth Survey. Benin 2001 ;md Vietnam 200 1

Riches! quintile

~ ~ ~ Q. ~

.1:i.s 00e: e:

..c:.. "

8

~

" -2

~~ -4 g~ -6

e:

-8

-10

0Zambi., 1991-1998

-4 -2

-"Romania, 1996-2002

1996-2002

Bol via, 1989-2002 ~

Brazil,1993-2001""... Ghana, 1992-1999

o Indonesia

~'99

Burkina Folso, ~94-2003

// /"to!

Seneg, I,1994--

Banglade

~ ~

001

h,1992-2000

. India, 1994-2000

[I ~~~~8

""'""Tunisi Ug.nd

, 199()"-2000 ,1992-2002

_.JlJVi nam, 1993-2002

Annual growth in gross domestic product (%) Source:World B.lnk. Pro -poor growth in the J990s-I~sons and insightsfrom 14 countries, 2005

average annual growth of GDP per capita, 2000-2005 less than 0.0%

0.G-1.9%

2.0--3.9%

4.0-5.9%

6.0% or more

no data

r F"","PoIy""",!") )

Chile 3.1%-----~

____Argentina 1.2%

Economic growth

Federation

--i ",I. l"ID~bmbiqUe

South Africa 3.2%

8.9% Vietnam 6.3%

( N. MaritlllrzlsJDnds (US)),("-(US)) ~

., /

/

~ \~ < .....\

~

:--~S~(Ul ~i

'..

Nt''''

Crzlnioll/a

(h)

N~Z"" od)r.

World Bank - Global Economic www.worldbank.org/prospectsProspects

I> OECD statistics www.oecd.org/statistics

Rich and poor ~

I> All six developing regions grew faster in 2005 than their average growth rate between 1990 and 2004.

I> Nearly 60 percent of all developing economies grew faster in 2005 than their average growth rate between 1990 and 2004.

I> 95 percent of Europe and Central Asian economies and 75 percent of Sub-Saharan African economies grew faster in 2005 than their previous average performance.

I> The last 15 years saw a surge of growth, especially among countries that opened their economies to trade and investment, maintained sound monetary and fiscal policies, and strengthened the rule of law.

IMF World Economic Outlook www.imf.org/weo

Inequality share of income or consumption going to the poorest quintile 1983-2004, most recent year available

less than 3.0%

3.0--4.9%

5.0-6.9%

7.()...l!.9% 9.00..6 or more

no data

One commonly used measure of income inequality is the inequality ratio, calculated as the ratio of income or consumption shares of the richest 20 percent to the poorest 20 percent of the population. A ratio of 10 means that the top 20 percent of the population earns (or spends) ten times as much as the bottom 20 percent of the population. Generally the higher this ratio, the more unequal the income distribution. Countries with high inequality ratios are mostly in Latin America and Africa . The highest inequality ratio among Asian countries is 12.

~ Income inequality between countries increased until the onset of rapid economic growth in China and India in the past two decades.

~ Inequality within countries has increased in many parts of the world, including Bangladesh, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

~ Inequality in access to schooling has fallen as school participation rates have risen inmost cou ntries.

~ Different groups of citizens within an economy, defined by such characteristics as race or gender. often face quite different opportunities for economic and social mobility.

~ World Development Report 2006

;,'

~ Human Developme"nt Report

- . ~ @3 \ (SOlo"""' ......) ~ ~~ (--N5I j (v'"-ri '-J. E

t News"t,.;.'

COlrrlOf1lD . (f1

www.worldbank.orgfwdr

hdr.undp.org

~ World Development Indicators www.worldbank.orgfdata

Rich and poor [1LJ

People living on more than $1 a day and less than $2 a day _ All developing regions

People living on less than $1 a day Other developing country regions

South Asia,

D East Asia &: Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa

2002

Lack of physical, human, social, and environmental assets, which leaves poor people at risk, vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters

Limited or no access to basic infrastructure-particularly roads (in rural areas), transport, and water and sanitation

~ Inadequate access to services such as health care and education

.. Lack of voice, power, and independence, which subjects poor people to exploitation

Inability to maintain cultural identity and fully participate in community life

Share of population living on less than $1 a day (%) 50,----------------------------------------------

40f------------------f~'--------------

30f-~~-------1~ ~r--,---------

1.00 ,----------------

Sub-Saharan Africa

Other developing countries

0.80 f--.----

35

r Proportion of deaths associated with being underweight

30

25

-

-,

20

15

10 r- r-

r 1-

' 'n~r-1

- -------- --- --

Poverty share of population living on less than SI a day, 1989-2004, most recent year available

40.0% or more

20.0-39.9"/0

10.0-19.9%

5.0-9.9%

less than 5.0%

no data

'/

Latin America 8( Caribbean 47 million

Europe 8/. Central Asia 10 million

R u ss ian Federa t I on

. _.......

East Asia 8/. Pacific 214 million

(~

. . ,

N~ .

Australia Calt:donia . (Fr)

New Ze~ l.JIn d

Population lilliny on less than $1 a day

/

~ Africa has more high poverty countries than any other developing country region, but Asia has the most people living in extreme poverty.

~ World Bank: PovcalNet

I iresearch.worldbank.org/ PovcaINet/jsp/index.jsp

~ Although extreme poverty occurs mostly in rural areas, urban slum populations can also have a high poverty ratio.

~ World Bank: Country poverty estimates

Iwww.worldbank.org/data

~ If economic growth rates in developing countries are sustained, global extreme poverty will fall to 10 percent by 2015.

~ World Bank: Millennium Development Goals

Iwww.developmentgoals.org ~ Many developing countries are not on track to achieve the poverty

reduction target of the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015.

~ United Nations Millennium Project Iwww.unmillenniumproject.org

Rich and poor CID

recent year available

Malnouri'shed children proportion of children under five who are underweight,l995-2004, most

30% or more

20-29%

10-19%

5-9%

less than 5%

no data

.. '" -~-lA.;...-----China

7 million Pakistan 8 mil/ion Ban91adesh 7 million

Vietnam 2 mil/ion

Philippines 3 mil/ion

Indonesia 6 mil/ion

N~~~ C(1/~dQn;a (Fr)A u s t r a I i a

Oem. Rep. ofCon90 3 mil/ion

. , [7 Countries with most underwei9ht children

~ UNICEF Monitoring the

rural children and between children in rich households and poor

~ Large disparities exist for underweight prevalence between urban and

Situation of Children and Iwww.childinfo.org

households in the developing world. Women

~ Around 146 million children in developing countries are I ~ World Health Organization Iwww.who.intfnutgrowthdbfenunderweight, based on the most recent estimates. ~ Between the periods 1995-1997 and 2000-2002, the rate of increase ~ Food and Agriculture in the number of undernourished people slowed from 5 million per Iwww.fao.orgOrganizationyear to 1 million per year in SubSaharan Africa.

~ During the same period , the proportion of undernourished people in Sub-Saharan Africa fell from 36 percent, where it had hovered ~ World Bank Iwww.worldbank.orgfdata

since 1990-1992, to 33 percent.

Rich and poor OIJ

The 20th century saw rapid population growth. It began with 1.6 billion, and ended with 6.1 billion living in the world. The largest increase came after 1950. The momentum created by this growth could carry the world's population beyond 7 billion by 2015, and to over 9 billion by 2050.

This population growth was the result of rapidly plummeting death rates, followed by more gradual declines in birth rates, first in the more developed, then, since 1950, in developing countries. Nearly all the population growth occurred in developing countries, but because ofdifferent demographic situations, there were large regional variations.

Asia, with over half the world's population in 1965, added over 1.7 billion people to its population over the next 40 years. But SubSaharan Mrica, whose population nearly tripled in the same time period, had the highest growth rate. The populations ofrich countries

grew much more slowly. As a result, their share ofthe world population fell from 22 percent in 1965 to 16 percent in 2005.

Even as world population grew, the pace ofgrowth decreased. Between 1965 and 1980, population grew by 1.9 percent a year; between 1980 and 2005 it grew by 1.5 percent. Every region experienced a slowdown during this period, but SubSaharan Africa still grew fastest, at 2.6 percent a year. By contrast, the growth rates in high-income economies and Europe and Central Asia fell sharply, to well below 1 percent a year.

Population growth rates are highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. followed by the Middle East and North Africa

Population growth, annual % 3.5,--- - ----------------------- - - - - --- -

3.0 ~---------____:::;__=;:IIl"""c:a.c::::::::::~~~-o;;;,;;j~----------

2.5~~~~=_~~~===_

2.0 ~~1--------~,-----~::::~=:::::=:"~c:::=::5:;z:' 1.5 r-r......,~::;;::::_---------==-~=-"'----------'~,=_--=="""--;;;;;;;;;;:;:;;::;;:::~

0.5 I---t:-+----------------------~-----------

- Latin Ameria 8{ c

Patterns for absolute population Increase and annual growth rates differ b . d th i d hi ' fy regions an e r emograpl c situa Ions

1965 Number (millions)

1980 2005 Growth rates (%)

1965-1980 1980-2005 East Asia &. Pacific Europe &. Central Asia Latin Am~ric3 Be: Caribbean Middle East &. North Africa South Asia SubSaharan Africa High Income World

980.6 364.6 247.1 111.4 631.5 254.3 727.7

3,317.2

1,359.0 425.6 357.2 168.2 898.0 385.0 839.8

4,432.7

1,885.3 472.9 551.4 305.4

1,470.0 741.4

1,011.3 6,437.8

2.18 1.03 2.46 2.74 2.35 2.77 0.95 1.93

1.31 0.42 1.74 2.39 1.97 2.62 0.74 1.49

Source: World Bank estimates

The next billion

These trends not only shaped the current demographic profile ofcountries, but will influence their demographic futures. Between 2000 and 2015, an additional 1 billion people will be added to the world's population. More than halfof them will be in Asia, with South Asia projected to increase by over 350 million people, and East Asia and Pacific by 230 million people. Europe and Central Asia will add a scant 3 million people. During this period, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow rapidly, with fertility rates remaining at over 3.5 births per woman, producing a youthful age structure. It is almost certain that the fastest population growth will be in poor countries, among the poorest population groups within these countries, and that urban areas in these regions will absorb most ofthe additional people. In these countries a "youth bulge" will ensure that births will continue to rise even as couples have fewer children.

The next billion people: where will they be?

Increase in population between 2000 and 2015 (millions)

72.2

D East Asia 8( Pacific Europe &: Central Asia

Latin America 8{ Caribbean 3.0

Middle East &. North Africa 98.1

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

High income

Source: World Bank. estimates

Absolute population Increase by country. Most of the projected rncrease 1n the coming years will be in the poorest countries. Top 10 population increase countries, change in millions, 2000-2015

250 ,------------------------------

200

ISO

100

SO

-2

-4

-6

-8

10 ,--------------------------Source: World B.nk estimates

People 25

Source: World Bank estimates

Top 10 population decrease countries, change in millions, 2000-2015

annual average growth rate, 2000-2005 3.0% or more

2.()-2.9% 1.5-1.9% 1.0--1.4%

less than 1.0%

no data

/r---4__

Population growth

~- - -- -

.. In most countries fertility rates, rather than mortality rates, will determine future population size.

-----------------

,. It took human history up to the early 1800s to reach 1 billion people; today the world gains 1 billion people every 12-14 years.

,. The gap between countries with rapid and slow population growths is linked to disparities in wealth and opportunities. .

... Sub-Saharan Africa will experience the largest proportional increase in population, from 13 percent of the world's population today to 20 percent by 2050.

N. __

.. UN Population Information Network

- '

. :..--

Nt';' ' . ,

CaledMJa (Fr)

.. UN Population Fund Iwww.unfpa.org -------------1

... Demographic and Health Iwww.measuredhs.com Surveys

,. Population Reference Bureau Iwww.prb.org

,. World Bank I www.worldbank.org (Click on Topics then on Health, Nutrition and Population)

People 27

Life expecta ncy, yea rs - East Asia &: Pacific - Latin America 8{ Caribbean - South Asia - Europe &: Central Asia - Middle East 8{ North Africa - Sub-Saharan AfriCiii

75,----------------------------------------------------

65

60 --55 -50 ,,--70~~~~

45 i40 35r---------------- ------------------------------------------

30,~-L~~-L~~~-L~~-L~~~-L~~-L~~~-L~~-L~~~-L~~~dbd-~ 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

World Bank estimates

Afailing birth rate, but II steady death rate in high-inc:ome countries

Crude rate, per 1,000 people - Crude birth rate - Crude death rate45.----------------------------------------------------------------------

0'Ll~96~0~-L~19~65~~~-19~70~~-Ll~97~5~~-Ll~98~0~-L~19~8-5~-L~19L90~~~-19~95~~-L2~00-0~~~2005 World Bank estimates

Falling birth and death rates in developing countries

Crude rate, per 1,000 people - Crude birth rate - Crude death rate

45.----------------------------------------------------------------------..

30.t==~~--------~~

......... 151~--...........~~;;;;;;;;;;;~:::::+=:;::~_=;:::=;::;;::=:;:::;:=;::::;:;~

O~-L~~-L~~~_L~~-L~~~-L~~-L~~~-L~~-L~~~-L~~-L~~~

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

worfd Bank estimates

Demography will shape the world ofour children and grandchildren. Failure to slow population growth in the poorest countries is likely to mean a lower quality oflife for millions ofpeople. The key determinants ofpopulation size and structure are fertility, mortality, and migration.

Most people in developing countries are living longer

The world experienced a population explosion in the middle ofthe 20th century, most of it in developing countries, when two demographic trends converged-high birth rates and rapidly declining death rates. In the 1960s a preference for large families kept fertility rates high, especially in low-income countries. Children were seen as an investment-working during childhood and supporting aging parents as

28

Young (ages 0-14) 0.8 1- ---o Old (ages 65+) 0.6 1---------

1970 1980

Source: World B.ank estimates

adults. When mortality rates declined, so did desired family size, but in many countries, failures in health, education, and reproductive health services kept fertility rates higher for much longer.

Fertility and mortality trends have shaped the current population profiles ofcountries and will influence their demographic futures. In the high-income countries, increasing life expectancy has coincided with income growth and healthier lifestyles. But with a fertility rate of1.7 births per woman, well below replacement level, the average age of the population will rise (currently 15 percent are over the age of65) and population size may fall in the absence ofimmigration. In fact, large increases in migration will be needed to stabilize the labor force and maintain current levels ofwelfare.

In developing countries fertility rates have also declined, but at 2.8 births per woman, they remain well above those in high-income countries. The rates vary considerably by region, but remain very high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Life expectancy at birth increased steadily for the developing regions as a whole, from 41 years in 1950 to 65 years in 2004. But in Sub-Saharan Africa the HIV/AIDS epidemic has caused life expectancy to fall from 49 years to 46 years since 1990.

Decreases in life expectancy in SubSaharan Africa are offset by stubbornly high fertility. With over 40 percent ofthe population below age 15, the working-age population will bear the burden ofdependent youth for some time.

Although fertility and mortality are the largest factors affecting demographic

change, migration is also important. A majority of international migrants are from developing countries. They make up a significant part of population growth in industrialized countries where fertility is so low that annual deaths exceed annual births. The departure ofhighly-skilled workers has affected some smaller economies but the total number ofemigrants is too small to have much impact on population growth in most developing countries.

In h1aMncome countries, the depe~ burden is

Inc::rea$lIlIW that oftheelderly popl$.lation II bIf'th

rates decline

Dependency ratio (as a proportion of working-age population)

1.0 .------ --------

In contrast. the worIdng-;ap population in d~ countries will continue to support~ng childr.en:(6i some time to come

Dependency ratio (as a proportion of working-age population)

1.0 .--------------

Source: World Bank estimates

People 29

0.8 1-------

0.4

0.1

Life expectancy life expectancy at birth, 2004

less than SS years 55-64 years

65--69 years

70-74 years

7S ye;Jr"S or more

no data

I co U n i t ed S t .tes

Achild in Botswana can only expect to reach, on average, the age of 35

Central African Republic

Zambia

Zimbabwe

and lowest life

36

-------

( N. MtJritfllffl lsltHHis ~

("""'(US))

A u s l r a I j a

-

Over 190 million people are international migrants who live in a country other than the country of their birth.

.. The world's population currently grows by over 200,000 people each day.

Population growth over the next few decades will be determined by two factors that are difficult to predict: the pace of fertility decline in some developing countries and the course of the AIDS epidemic.

.. In 11 countries population grew by three percent or more between 1990 and 2004; at this rate, a population will double in size every 23 years.

UN Population Information Iwww.un.org/popin

Network

~------------------~-- ---------. I UN Population Fund www.unfpa.org

Demographic and Health Iwww.measuredhs.com

Surveys

----I .. Population Reference Bureau Iwww.prb.org The World Bank Iwww.worldbank.org/data

People I 31

200 - Remittances, received (US$) -Aid

150 1------+--- ---,,"'"-

100 1------7"~----_____=7'_~--

Alarger share of all remittance flows are now going to developing countries

$68.6 billion

High income 54% M iddle East &. North AfriGl

17%

$248.9 billion

Europe 8{ Central Asia 10%

Middle East &. North AfriGl 10%

Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received

Source: International Monetary Fund B.I.ncc ofP. yments databa_se_________________________

The movement ofpeople across national borders is a visible and increasingly important aspect of global integration. Three percent ofthe world's population-more than 190 million people-are now living in countries in which they were not born. The forces driving the flow ofmigrants from poor countries to rich countries are likely to grow stronger in the future. RemittancC!$ to developing countries continue to increase

Current US$, billions 250 ,-----------:------

- Foreign Direct Investment, net infl ows

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Source: Intern;l tion.illl Monetary Fund B.iII l4I nce of P. yments, OECD, World B.mk Debt Reporter System

Migration is on the rise, especially from poor countries to rich countries. One reason is the large wage gap between developed and developing countries. Also increasing is the flow ofremittancescurrency transfers plus wages and salaries earned abroad-from migrants back to their country of origin, which has become an important source of foreign exchange for many developing countries.

Remittances have tripled since 1990, reaching ahnost $249 billion in 2004, with $179 billion going to developing countries. Already more than twice the size of foreign aid, remittances are expected to continue growing. Empirical studies have found that remittances can raise income levels, especially among, but not limited to, the poor. Remittances may have reduced the number ofpoor people in the population by 11 percent in Uganda, 6 percent in Bangladesh, and 5 percent in Ghana. In addition to benefiting households through higher levels of educational attainment, better health outcomes, and increased investment, they can also lead to improvements in the overall economy.

32

100

wr-----------~~--------

Myanmar refugee children at their camp in Thailand

Immigrants in DECO countries are better educated

Demographic trends in both highincome and developing countries may encourage migration. In many developed countries the population is aging fast, while in many developing countries the population is young and growing rapidly. This imbalance is likely to create strong demand in high-income labor markets for developing-country workers, especially to provide services that can be supplied only locally. The share of immigrants in the total population ofhigh-income countries increased to 11 percent in 2005, up from 7 percent two decades before.

Migration may also have negative effects. Among international migrants are millions ofhighly educated people who have moved to developed countries from developing

Working-age immigrants by level of education, 1990 and 2000 (millions)

Sourc(!: Ozd(!n -"lnd Schiff, 2005

Immigrant populations have been growing in high-income countries since 1960 but very little in developing countries

International migration stock (total. millions) 120,--------------------

High income Middle income

-- Low income wr--------------~~-----

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source:: World Bank staff estimates based on United Nations Population Division data

countries. By migrating they improve their own prospects and provide valuable services in high-income economies, but the loss of human capital, the so-called "brain drain", from developing countries may increase the concentration ofpoverty and reduce the social benefits ofmigration. The regions most affected by the brain drain are SubSaharan Africa and small island economies. For example, 87 percent ofGuyanese and 85 percent ofJamaicans with degrees live outside oftheir country.

Refugees are an important component of the migrant stock. At the end of2005, the number of refugees stood at 8.4 million -the lowest level since 1980-accounting for 4.4 percent ofthe migrants in the world. In 2005, Pakistan and Iran hosted the largest number ofrefugees. Other major countries ofasylum included Germany, Tanzania, and the United States.

People 33

13 percent of the ---population of the

United States was born in another country

~.. Ene dor .'

Migration migrants as share of population, 2005

less than 1.0%

1.0--2.9%

3.0--5.9%

6. 0--14.9%

15.0% or more

no ddtOl

,

Bra z i I (\

0I::::1

Only 0.2 percent of East Asia 81. Pacific's population is made up of migrants

Vietnam has the smallest ----------,immigrant population as a

share of its total population

(6OPercent ofthe world's migrants

live in high-income countries ;,'

Facts Internet links In the 1960s, the majority of migrants lived in developing countries. Today,

the largest number resides in high-income countries. .. United Nations www.un.orgjesaj

Population Division populationjunpop.htm78 million migrants are living in developing countries (about 1.4 percent of their population), compared to 112 million in high-income countries

I--,--____ l _ perc--"__ of ___-'populat ion). -I .. I nternational Organ ization (a bout _ l -,--__ ent __their _-'-_____-'..__-,---___________ www.iom.intThe number of migrants in the world grew from about 70 million in 1960 for Migration

to more than 190 million in 2005. But this remained about 3 percent of the

world's population.

.. United Nations Refugee Of the immigrants in the world, 95 million are female, and 96 million are male. I www.unhcr.orgAgency

Five countries have immigrant populations that make up more than half of

their total population: Andorra, Kuwait, Monaco, Qatar, and United Arab

Emirates. www.oecd.org

.. OECD Click on department, then ELSL-'~__-::-"'-""""_-::-_---'-~:-:-:--:-_-::--:-:--,:"_____"-:--_--I

There were 8.4 million refugees in 2005, down from 14.9 million in 1995.

People CIT]

36 J

Remittances remittances received as share of GOP, 2004

6.0% o r more

3.0-5. 9%

1.0-2.9% 0.5-0.9",6

Jess than 0.5%

no data

/

(5emittances r~ceived in 2605 in the United States-~- " U n it e d .only totaled 0.03 percent

of the fountry 's GDP

Latin America tq Caribbean receives the largest amount of remittances ($46 billion)

\'.

Immigrant workers gather strawberries on a farm in California, United States

$ billions

Eu.rope 8l. Central Asia remittances are about 1 percent of the region's GDP

(~

'. N~w "- ' C

Primary gross enrollment rates, 1991 and 2004 (%) Primary completion rates, circa 1991 and most recent year, 2000-2005 (%)

120

100 f- f

80 f 1- -

60 f- f -

40 f- f -

Out of school children of primary school age (millions) 2001-2002

JO r---------------------~----~~~-------1 ~ ~ 25 ~------------------~--__~------20 ~----------------~

15~----------------~

Secondary gross enrollment ratios, 1991 and 2004 (%)

100

80 -

60 - - f-=

40

~ g ~ 1~- ~ 20

Tertiary gross enrollment ratios, 1991 and 2004 (%)

~=t =:Qg:Fl _8~J.l r;~1 ~ .~ El l I ;'n

primary completion, 2000-2005, most recent year available Education for all

less than 50%

50--74%

75-84%

85-94%

95% or more

no data

Mexico 9996----------~' ~ ~--

S tilt e s

Honduras 79%----'=~1I

/ Argf:ntill:l '> \

-

%

Federation

Africa 96%

' -,:" -_."

/ /

Almost one in five (18 percent) of all primary school-age children UNESCO I nstitute for Statistics www.uis.unesco.orgin the world are not in school.

Globally, 62 million girls of primary school age are not in school,

Iwww.worldbank.orgfaccounting for 53 percent of the total number of children out of World Bank's EdStats educationfedstatsschool. Demographic and Health Women are less literate than men: worldwide, only 88 adult women Iwww.measuredhs.comSurveys (DHS)are considered literate for every 100 men.

132 million of the 771 million people without literacy skills are ages DHS data on education Idevdata.worldbank.orgf indicators edstatsftd16.asp15-24 years. 19 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have primary completion rates Organisation for Economic 1www.oecd.org

Co-operation and Development of 50 percent or less.

Education

20L-----~========================================== 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200S

120.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7S

ltlll 2004

200 ,..- --- - . No education

ISO 1-1. - ---- 0 Some primary

~~ '11-

Gender equity ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education, 2000-2005, most recent year available

less than 90%

90-94%

95--99%

100-104%

105% or more:

no data

'j.

-

Latin America 8{ Caribbean 100%

Women Center, Dushanbe, Tajlkistan.Women empowerment project.

----------------~ Countries with the lowest ratios of

female to male enrollment. 2OOO-2OOS

Europe If{ Central Asia 96%

(- - Wj ~ ~

Sub-Sana ran Africa 83%

' ~ -~'

East Asia If{ Pacific 99%

",.

N~ , Ca/#drm ia (F'J

Organization

.. Mothers' education has a bigger impact on children's malnutrition .. World Bank I hUp:/Igenderstats.worldbank.orgfhome.asp than access to safe water. Gender Stats

.. Nearly half of the 39 million adults liv ing with HIV are women. .. Demographic and Iwww.measuredhs.com

Health Surveys

.. Girls in both Asia and Latin America take on more child and elderly .. UNESCO Institute Iwww.uis.unesco.org

for Statistics care responsibilities than boys, resulting in increased household chores and lower levels of schooling. .. Inter Parliamentary Iwww.ipu.org Union

,. In three Sub-Saharan African countries, women spend between 300 and 800 hours a year collecting fuel wood; in contrast, men spend less than 50 hours.

,. International Labour Iwww.ilo.org

Education ~

80

60

40

20

GJ

E

.s

~

....8r

~

1 t

5

~ '= t3 100~--------------------~~__~----------~~~,___--------------C-----=-~-~~~~~

Under-five mortality rate, per 1,000

250 fJIIt-__

300.-------~--~-------------------------------------------------------------

East Asia &: Pacific - - Latin America Be Caribbean - - South Asia ,-------'--=:...>L-...-:::-=--------

__ .. .. ... ... - - Europe 8( Central Asia - - Middle East Il( North Africa - - - Sub-Saharan Africa

--.200~,-------------~~- -.

~--~~------~-~~~~~~-------------------------------......... 0 _ ........ _ .- ... ___ ..~:: ------- ----.-----.----------1 50~~~_~_~_~~,~---------------~-~~------~-~~~Ch~~-----------------------------

----- .:!- ~.... .... -- .....- D ~ --... __]0<

"qb" "qb'> "q1" "q1'> Source : Harmonized estimates ofWHO, UNICEF, and World Bank

Child immunization, measles (% of children aged 12-23 months) 100,-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Source : WHO and UNI CEF estimates of n:ltion:ll immunization coverage

Each year, more than 10 million children die before their fifth birthday, the vast majority from causes preventable through a combination ofgood care, nutrition, and simple medical treatment. Child mortality is thus closely linked to poverty, with child malnutrition implicated in more than halfthe deaths worldwide.

Child mortality has declined in ev~ region since 1960, when 1 in 5 childreD diecl before the age ofs. By 1990, this rate bad fiillen to 1 in 10 children. Since then, progress has slowed, and a few countri actually experienced increases in child mortality. In 2004, 47 countries had underfive mortality rates greater than 100 per 1,000. meven countries-all ofthem in Sub-Saharan Africa-had under-five mortality rates greater than 200. In low-income countries today, 1 child in 8 dies before its fifth birthday, compared with 1 in 143 in high-income countries.

Just five diseases-pneumonia, diarrhea, malaria, measles and AIDS-account for halfofall deaths in children under five. Children in Sub-Saharan Africa are hardest hit by AIDS, and in countries such as Botswana, Swaziland, and South Africa, it is estimated that child mortality more than doubled as a result ofAIDS. Malnutrition is implicated in more than halfofall child deaths worldwide. It weakens children and reduces their resistance to disease. It often begins at birth, when poorly nourished mothers give birth to underweight babies. Improper feeding and child care practices also contribute to worsen malnutrition.

Low-cost treatments such as antibiotics for respiratory infections, oral re-hydration for diarrhea, immunization for measles, and the use oftreated bed nets in malarial regions have contributed to reducing deaths ofchildren. In 2004, almost 75 percent ofchildren in developing countries were immunized against measles, and deaths from measles declined by nearly two thirds in the last decade. Studies show that children from wealthier households and those living in urban areas have better access to health services and immunization, are better nourished, and so are less likely to die.

Estimated impact ofAIDS on under-~ve mortality rates, 2002-2005, selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

I IBotswana 1= 1 . withAIDS Kenya

DwithoutAIDS Lesotho

Namibia F===l South Africa F===l

Swaziland

Z ~\,,\.(\')~

Children ages 12-23 months who have received measles vacci nation (%)

poorest By wealth/asset quintiles o richest

100

80

60

40

20

o \.').r;;t;fl , ').r;;r;;r;; \. ').r;;r;;r;; .'').r;;r;;.... ').t;flr;; ').r;;r;;r;; 'I-

~"'-"(h)j

-

Child mortality under-five mortality rate per 1,000,2004

100 or more

50-99

20--49

10-19

less than 10

no data /

/ -'

'-.

Kazalchstan

Prellalence ofchild malnutrition

. .:..-~

LaoU- -t

Complications from pregnancy and cbndbirth are a leading cause of death and disability among women ofreproductive age in developing countries. Every year more than 500,000 women die during pregnancy or cbndbirth, and at least 10 million women suffer injuries, infection, and disabilities. A majority ofdeaths occur in Asia and AfDca, which account for 95 percent oftotal deaths.

200

100

High-income countries Materna l mortality rate

(per 100 000 li ve births) 500

total fertility rate

maternal mortality rate

.--~---~--.----~--~

-

....

400

300

200

100

-- .... _---..

-

)-___-;300 maternal mo rtality rate

Women in high-fertility countries in Africa have a 1 in 20 lifetime risk ofdying from pregnancy or childbirth, compared with women in low-fertility countries in Europe, who have a 1 in 2,000 risk ofdying, and in North America, who have a 1 in 3,500 risk. And risks to women from the poorest families are still greater.

High mortality rates for mothers in many countries are the result ofinadequate health care during pregnancy and delivery. Only 70 percent ofpregnant women in developing countries had at least one prenatal care visit during pregnancy. The rate is even lower in South Asia, where only halfofthe pregnant women get prenatal care. Access to skilled care is lower still, with only 60 percent ofbirths in developing countries being attended by skilled health staff, compared to 98 percent in high-income countries. Only about 40 percent ofbirths are assisted in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Compounding the risks that high fertility poses to maternal health are poorly timed and inadequately spaced births, which expose women to frequent pregnancies in short intervals. Greater access to family planning can help reduce these risks to maternal health.

. ~~ e~ . ')~ \~ 'r~\' \(\c,' (0t. ~')~\ ~~c."\c. ~v.(o~ "...'"::0\')\l'-'e;~~e~~o.\e'(..'~(\C.'\,Ou.\~ (~{\ .,.:: . ~;\(\(.~\(\e"

e{\\( \\('. c.'(\ ~\ o.~ S'~' y.\~ cPu

C \.? ~

Teeuage mothers

About 15 million babies are born to young women ages 15 to 19 each year. When girls have children early, they usually cannot continue their education and so cannot join the productive workforce. The result-they have more children than women who start families later. Teenage pregnancies are high-risk for both mother and child and lead to other problems including sexually transmitted diseases, unsafe abortion, and maternal death. In some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 40 percent ofteenage girls have at least one child before the age of18. Teenage girls in developing countries have twice as many children as girls in high-income countries.

Pregnant women receiving prenatal care, 2000-2004 (%), most recent year 100 ,----------------------------------------------------

80

60

40

20 K IIIII----I

Source: Demographic Olnd He.,lth Surveys

Adolescent fertility rate, 2004

births per 1,000 women ages 15-19

East Asia 8c Pacific

Europe 8c Central Asia

latin America 8c Caribbean

Middle East 8( North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

High-income countries

o 30 60 90 120 ISO

Source: World Bank estimates

Women ages 20--24 who gave birth by age 18, various years (%)

Niger ~,!!!!!!~~!!!!!!,~.~., Nicaragua ~~!!!!!!,.,.,~~,

Kenya _'!!!!!!1I.,.,., Bolivia ~~~!I".'

Source: UNFPA. Stote

poorest quintile

o richest quintile 30 40 SO 60 70 80

Total ferHlity rate births per woman, 2004

4.5 or more

35-4.4

25-3.4

1.5-2.4

less than lo S

no data

/

--/

.....

A mother and child receive free vitamin Aat a government health clinic, Hanoi

--

Croatia Sweden Russia 2

Lao P.D.R. ~~_--rr-~~::~650 C"' -""'''''' (!JS) ),

Ethiopia 850

'.NhII .' ColdQnio (F,!

( Maternal mortality rates for year 2000 (maternal deaths per 100,000 live births)

Every minute of the day, a woman dies from complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, most often in a developing country. .. UNICEF www.childinfo.org/index2.htm

For every woman who dies in childbirth , 30 to SO women suffer injury, 1---------------'-------- ------1 infection, or disease,

r-------------------------I .. World Health Organization www.who.intfen Women's lifetime risk of maternal death is almost 40 times as high in the developing than the developed world.

.. Inter-agency Group on www.safemotherhood.org Severe bleeding is the leading cause of maternal deaths, Safe Motherhood

Health CJIJ

Communic:able diseases take a em"hle ton in developing countries. The spread ofHIV/AIDS, the resurgence oftuberculosis, and increasing morbidity and mortality from malaria (mostly due to drug and insecticide resistant parasites), have had their greatest impact on poor countries and poor people, shortening life spans and curtailing economic growth. An estimated 99 percent ofall deaths

from AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria occur in developing countries. Worldwide there are 39 million people currently living with HN/AIDS. In many countries the disease is undoing the development achievements ofthe past 50 years by disproportionately infecting young people and killing adults in their prime. Adolescent girls and young women are especially vulnerable to HN and account for 60 percent ofthe 10 million HN-positive youths ages 15-24. More recently, however,

Adults Il{ children living with HIV (thousands)

. .

,

..

~ ,

. ft ", ' .' . : and Central Europe 720

.'.

,

. : . ...

'

.. . p .. ....",\

n America 1,600

South and '

: ... Southeast Asia 7,600

. . .. ' Sour~~ ; UNAIOS and WHO

countries such as Kenya and Uganda have shown a decline ofHN prevalence among young, pregnant women attending prenatal clinics.

Tuberculosis is the main cause ofdeath from a single infectious agent among adults 1545 years old. More than 80 percent ofall tuberculosis patients live in Africa and Asia, but the epidemic is worsening in Europe and Central Asia. Poor people are especially vulnerable because oftheir underlying health problems and limited access to treatment.

HIV prevalence rate, adults ages 15-49,2003 and 2005 (%)

Sour'" : UNAIDS .nd WHO 54

Inc idence of tuberculosis by reg ion , 1990 and 2004 (per 100,000 people) 400,--------------------------------------------------------------------------

350 ~------~--~--------------------------------------------~

300 ~--------------------------------------------------------~

250 r-----------------------------------~--~----------------~ 200~----------~--------------------------------------------~ 150

100

50

Source : WH O

And people with weak immune systems are at greater riskin some Sub-Saharan African countries up to 60 percent of tuberculosis patients are HIV-positive.

Malaria is endemic in more than 100 countries in tropical and subtropical regions, killing more than 1 million people each year. Most deaths from malaria are among children younger than 5 years old, accounting for about 9 percent ofall childhood deaths. Studies have shown that sleeping under an insecticide-treated mosquito net is an effective prevention strategy. However, the use oftreated bed nets among children under five is extremely low-in Sub Saharan Africa it is only 3 percent. EcoDomic impact ofdiseases Estimates suggest that tuberculosis can cost up to

30 percent ofannual household income in lost wages.

Workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020, selected African countries, (%) 40,----------------------------------------

20

10

30~~_.--------------------------------~~

Source: UNAIOS

Children sleeping under treated bed nets, most recent year available, 2000-2005 (%)

35

30

25

20

15

10

mll n ~ ~ ~ Malaria slows economic growth in Africa by some L3 percent a year. Compounded over 35 years in countries where malaria is endemic, this means that gross domestic product is about a third lower than it might have been. And when HlV/AIDS prevalence reaches 8 percent-about where it is for 11 African countries today-the cost in economic growth is estimated at about 1 percent a year.

Health

HIV/AIDS adult HIV prevalence, 2005

20.0% or more 10.{}-19.9""; 1.{}-9.9% 0.5-0.9"";

less th;m 0.5%

no dOlttl

t-.

HIV/AIDS has a devastating effect on families and on the economies of tne developing world

---. '

(~ -_(VSI~ (","",(usI)

/ /

filii......." '

/

(SoIomon'_ ) ~ ~\\ (-~(US)l ~ Fiji ---:\. .s

..>.

IY",,~, CokdotriQ . ("1

New ZCOJ lln,d 1./ ~

~ Over 90 percent of all children living with HIV, and about 80 percent of all the children orphaned by AIDS, live in Sub-Saharan Africa. ~ World Health Organization www.who.int/topics/en

About half of all new HIV infections are in young people ages 15-24.

1------------------- ----1 UNAIDS www.unaids.org/en ~ Approximately 60 percent of all deaths from malaria occur among

the poorest 20 percent of the world 's population.

~ Demographic and Health www.measuredhs.com ~ 95 percent of tuberculos is cases and 98 percent of deaths occur in Surveysthe developing world.

Health CJ[]

....ndil4~~ goods. However, agrildll1tare cODtinueto incomefor _.ftV economies.

mitdag soa:rces:of

oping

Value added in services (% of GDP)

80

..

60 .. II -:::Jill

- ...

40 - U '

20

0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004

High income - Low income -.- Middle income Source: World Development Indicators database

Value added in services 1990-2005 (199Q=,lOO)

350,--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

50 ~-------------------------------------------------------------------------

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

D East Asia 8{ Pacific _ Middle East &. North Africa _ Sub-Saharan Africa o South Asia -... latin America &: Caribbe.1n ___ Europe 8{ Central Asia

Source: World Development Indicators database

Agricultural employment as share of total employment 2000--2003 (%)

Tanzania Madagascar

Papua New Guinea Cambodia

Uganda

Bangladesh

Vietnam Ghana

Georgia

Indonesia

Thailand Armenia

China

Morocco

Kyrgyz Republic

Moldova

Pakistan

Mongolia

20 40 60 80 100 Sourc~: International labor i i

A1thcmgh the smice c:tor' growiDg ~ _ltQU~umafusofgreat~ce to cleveloping e lJl200S, vatu added in agriculture aJ a ,...,~! ofGDP was over 40 percen in eli!m1 ~- come.

~~nine ofthan inAfiica. ApiCUltme is alSo an i'DJ'i~:aD..tSoutCe ofemployment. It employs over 40 percent JabOrfOtce in 18 countries, over CiO percent in seven

._lts,:md.as much as 82 percent fu '])nzmja. Ot only __OJtUfe~~~~.es"1 'but also somemiddle-incoJne

~i);Oli_~dcpendenton agri EvcniD ChiDa. api(uljt'-. accountsmr44pm:ent of total ~lo.ym~

~~emp1oymentaccountedror 4 of .,loymenUnthe United tatei aDd

.G.fm~, anden1y 1 pm.:ent in the UrdtCd xmg:dOm

Agricultural output share of value added in agriculture in GOP, 2000-2005, most recent year available

25% or more

15-24%

8-14%

3-7% .'

less than 3% ,-no data

/

" ,

'" Urrl t ed

Latin America 8{ Caribbean 8%

Agriculture is still a major part of the economy of Sub-Saharan countries such as Senegal

-.

%ofGDP

Europe 8( Central Asia 8%

17%

The world agricultural sector grew by 1.9 percent from 1990 to 2005. The service sector grew by 3.1 percent and the industrial sector by 2.3 percent over the same period.

The highest rate of growth in agriculture from 1990 to 2005, of 3.5 percent, was registered by the Sub-Saharan African countries, where the service sector grew by 3.1 percent and the industrial sector by 2.6 percent.

In the East Asia and Pacific region, industry was the fastest growing sector with 9.7 percent growth for the period 1990 to 2005. Services were second with 7.9 percent, and agriculture grew by 3.3 percent.

In South Asia, the fastest growing sector was services, with 7.2 percent growth, followed by 6 percent in industry, and 2.7 percent in agriculture for the same period.

".

/

/

.. World Bank

.. International Labour Organization Key Indicators of the Labour Market

~ International Monetary Fund Data and statistics

~ United Nations

East Asia 8( Pacific 13%

.... "

,,~ .

CtNtdoniQrrr)

I www.worldbank.org www.ilo.org

www.imf.org

www.un.org/external/ data.htm

--

Economy [ill

euergy~water IDfi do aQd to~ODS tedmology--aJe the hackboite ofa fanc:ti0DiDg econ~ tadJjtatfng growth and 1rincB.... coDUlNDitieS together, SOJ:be iDfiaIttoctare is built and maiutained by governments; some is prtvately owned; and some comes about through pubUc-private partnerShips.

% of rural population, average of latest available data from 1994 to 2004 for each regio'n

Sub Saharan Africa

Middle East &. N. Africa

Latin America &. Caribbean

South Asia

Europe &.

Central Asia

East Asia

20 40 60

Source: Transport 8{ Urban Development Department, World Bank

80 100

~ Improved water supply reduces diarrhea morbidity by 25 percent if severe outcomes (such as cholera) are included ~ Improved sanitation reduces diarrhea morbidity by

32 percent .. Hygiene interventions including hygiene education

and promotion of hand washing leads to a reduction of diarrheal cases by 45 percent

Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Progrdmme for Water Supply and Sanitation. 2005. Water Jor Life: Making it

m:mllfii~ c;aDD() ~)D::~~$; marlc.ds; amlh~aticm and ~~~~~, tions are entia1 in miDt~. 'WDI'IIL,

~ surices playakej m1etii mostimpOrtmtdev~ reducmg p01etty andhrinp,81!W UnpJ'Ovenwtts in th lives ~of people in developmg countri Physical isolatioD is a strong c:cmtribtlt*

to poverty. People liVUlg in TeJilOte P have less access to ht:altb and educatioa services. employment-and ~Problems are particularly severe in nu:al are8$. An estimated900 ~ rural dwellerS in developmg countries, most ofthem pc;mj are without reliable-access to aftimtable means oftraMpottation. They also have less reliable elec:tridty supplieJ md.:in many cas ,laclc access to clean water md basic sm.itation.

Public and private investment in developing countries in which the private sector has the operating risk,2000-2004, $ billions

200

150

100

50

So urce: World B:l nk's Private i i in I n{rastructure datab. se

Access to an improved water source, % of population, 2004

-

- -

-- r-

- - I-

-- I-

'-

I--

- -

-

ofclean water and basic sanitation the main reason ft\1!I1'W!ldtlerbome bacterial infections such as cholera ate so

c~m deve1o.ping countries. More than 2.5 billion pepple. thewor1c;llack safe water anel samtation senices.

~ts in abou 2 million deaths per year and undreds Cif'DiilUQDS ofcases ofintestina1 i.n1ection, Which con.trib\lte IiIlDificantly to malnutrition mostly among children. Despite global ~ improvements inwater and sanitation infra

~have barelykept pace with population inaease and tmgration in the developing world. 'lhe challenge in leduring diSeue transmission is not only in providing better water and tanHation &cilities, but also in promoting good hygiene p~ such as band washing. lDJi>rmation and communic:ation eclmology bas vast .~~Il1f~growth in deve1op~ countries. Mobile ~_keep&mi1ies and communities in contact and

et il2fbrmation for farmers and buSiness people. ~ temet deJiVm information to schools and hospitals, aitd tomtnrtm'l improve public and private services and ~ productivityand participation.

globalsupply ofinftastructure services is not ab1 to :ftti!tf!t:thfl'DeedS of~, and the cha11enge oftomorrow. With

_~a tumcm. p ople in the n 25 years. wm be even ~_~.'Ib meet this chalIcmge.investmeJlt in~ "'~I~l~'~~~s~H~~ ;lWImaI~.~~ imp!Ovh&peopIe lives.

100

80

60

40

20

o

-

r-

I-

I-

'-

Access to improved sanitation facilities, % of population, 2004

lOO

80

60 - I-

40 , - . 1---,-

;

20 - - -

- I- t

~'- -

Source: WHO i1nd UNICEF's Mf!ding th l! MOG Drinking Water and SDnitDtNm

Internet access, per 1,000 people, 2004

ISO ,--------------

120

90

60

30

Source.: InternaUc nJ.l T~~mrrwnbtlon Union.

/'

'" Unll ed SI, le<

Latin America 8{ Caribbean 499

Telephones fixed-line and mobile phone subscribers per 1,000 people, 2004 or latest available data

less than 50

S()-199 200--499

SO()-999 1,000 or more

no data

Europe 8{ Central Asia 536 (2003)

World 471

(.v: _-IV$J, (~East Asia 8{ Pacific 431

Nn4' - ' , CI1/edonl(1 (h)

, ,

""7

.-

Low-income 71 Middle-income 482 High-income 1.309

/

Access to telephone networks (fixed-line and mobile) increased more ~ International Iwww.itu.intthan 10-fold between 1990 and 2004. Telecommunication Union

2004. all developing country regions had greater access to mobile than fixed-line phones.

1.6 billion people lack access to modern energy services.

In Sub-Saharan Africa. four times as many people have access to mobile phones than to fixed-line phones.

Among developing countries. Europe and Central Asia has the highest percentage of paved roads (74 percent). followed by the Middle East and North Africa (66 percent). South Asia (54 percent). East Asia and Pacific (32 percent). Latin America and the Caribbean (27 percent). and Sub-Saharan Africa (13 percent).

~ International Road Federation Iwww.irfnet.org ~ World Resources Institute Iearthtrends.wri.org Earth Trends (click on Energy and Resources)

Iwww.worldbank.org ~ World Bank (click on Topics, then In(ormation and Communication Technologies) ~ Organisation for Economic Iwww.oecd.org

. (click on By Topic, then Information and Co-operation and Development Communications Technologies)

World Health Organization

Economy

WithoutimestrDeDt there would not be ecGQOmic IP.OW& On

Physical investment takes many fOrmsbuild. IQafoinery and equipnmt, improvemems t() ~perty, and additions to inventoties.lnvesbnent JS financed out ofsa~.1 or 01itp whkh allOt consumed or ..,ortecl Gomitries that have high ~ indinvestmentrates are likelytohaVehighmes ofeconomic growth. Growtb.it alio Spur:red by improved dficiGcy as a result of tecJuu,1ogical a~es and investments in people, throughbetter edw:ation and health care.

The lM1 Of'investiDent in the EastAm and Pati1icreatcm:was tightlybel tlud: of the Latin Atneric:a and the Quibbem t'e8l in 1990.but: tlO'tf t invests more tbata. as xa.udL Stmil;tJ'1y, uth Asia _d .l\1.1G~. East ~NorlhA&1cabaQ: about_ level ofinvestlnent . 1990,but now: South Asia invpts 31 pelWlt ~tha.D. Middle EastiUlcl orth Afiia regl0.n. Investmentneed notbe fin:mreCtpy

c1.omestie savJn8S atone. Pordp-&ed: mvestDi~ t1iroD8h loanS and equity investment has ~ an impMaJit iOUtte of funding fOr many loW- and middle-4nc:ome economies. Along with financial resources, foreign direct invesbnent often briDp with . access 0 newtedmologies and ~ ment skills. But to attract fOreign direct in: estm co1JDtrlcs need to create a filvotable investment climate. Countrles

Gross capital formation ($ billions) 1,000 ,----------------------------

.......0

800 I--_O_ _ _ i' I!{ _,ci_ _____ e E"t---,_ _rth_A_ _____ _ _ _ _ _ _____---=~nE'st AS_ _ P "C _ Middl_ _ I!{ No friQ _ Sub-S'h,"n Afric' - u--_

South Asia - - latin America 8{ Caribbean Europe &c Central Asia ? 600 I--___________________~_cr:::::-----

o ~.~-----~~_O""--IO]---I -- - ~ I~-e~~==~~~--l ~=~~ ~~~==~~ ~O~ -- ~- ~-400 --.. - ......- . -- .,...~ --- ... i!!iI200 ~ - ~

,GG

Foreign direct investment ($ billions) 250 ~~------~----~----------------------------------------------~

o East Asia &. Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa 200 Europe &. Central Asia 0 South Asia ----------------------------------------

Latin America &. Caribbean 150 1---------------------------------,

100 I-------------------~

50 1-------

Source: World Development Indic;:!tors d;;ltOlb;;lse

~'1leitberahigh &a~ rate nor the a'biliq-to :_let fbJ:ei&n direct investmmt iac1:'.~r:asel.

mmted oppcntmiitiu for giowtho ~~biDion wasinvested~~

aeatrtwo-thiriU1M','S4U biDion gomg l1iaJi~ economies.Deveto';" economies

bi1Iioi1 ~dbect m eatDient

2OG4; and their share has been climbing stead..

Between'l99Ocand 2004t fOreign dire invest

mtht developmg~'lUlt'riI$ mcreased

tcmlblct fi:om $21 billion to S2l1billion (in ~cloDats~

Amtmtthe developu. ~s .East Asia and Pa~_been tile benc60ny oO.rge ~QUXlts

oE~direct investmentmnce the 199Os. The tatmAmerlea.a the Caribbean region was the Jaes)%leGipimt between 1997 aild2000 But

~md cent:ralAsia' growiDghi tmportaDc:e, douhJing its share ~een 2003 and 2004;md cl.imbing to second place .2004.

~ Chinaand some oftheOtber~~1t . tUEaitAsia and Pacific regiQJl have obttined iP~i:taC1~ 'pc)wth rate high levels finVestment do 2lOtguarantee high growth rates.Inwstment pmdUcesgrowth butinvestil1ent also thaSa ..,~ l\ilo':re inv.estment is1iblyinp1ites Where

hW~iU'iJjuepossibleOVer perlbd1990

GDP growth rate (%), average of 1995-2004 8

East Asia 8( Pacific 07 South Asia

V

SubSaharan Africa .Middle E>st 8{ North Africa

~Europe 8{ Central Asia ~High income

1-- - Latin America 8{ Caribbean

o !O 15 20 25 30 35 40

Gross capital (ormation ofGDP). average of 1990--1999

Investment for growth gross capital formation as share of GOP, 2005 or latest available data

less than 15%

15-19",6

20-24%

25-29%

30% or more

no data

-..

China's rapidly growing economy has benefited from foreign investment

-- ..:

(

/ World Low income Middle income Low 8{ middle income High income

21% 27% 26% 26% 20% /

. - ~ - ~

N~" 'I, Cakdoni(J (hi

Capital formation has been the fastest in the East Asia and Pacific .. World Bank-

region. Between 2000 and 2005 it increased at an average rate Iwww.worldbank.org/dataData and Statisticsof 13 percent a year.

Capital formation has been the slowest in the Latin America and the

Caribbean region, growing at less than 1 percent a year between .. Organisation for Economic www.oecd.org

(clic k on Stat istics) Co-operation and Development 2000 and 2005. About 30 countries saw their investment levels decline between

2000 and 2005 .

.. United Nations Conference on Iwww.unctad.org/statisticsr----v-e-st-m- e-n-t-g-r-ew- a-t -a n- av-e-r-ag-e- 4-g-p-er-c-e-nt- a- y-e-a-r-b-et-w-e-e-n-2-o-o-o-a-n-d- --I Trade a nd DevelopmentIn

2005 in Azerbaijan.

.. International Monetary Fund Iwww.imf.org/external/data.htmIn China investment grew at an average of 15 percent a year Statisticsbetween 2000 and 2005.

Economy [:E:J

create an invesbnent clbnate that lJenefits society as a .hole.

Managers who lack confidence in the courts to uphold property rights, 2000-2005 (%)

Bangladesh

Guatemala

Moldova

Czech Republic

Kenya

Kyrgyz Republi c

Brazil

Zambi a

Algeria

Malaysia

20 40 60 80 100

Source: Enterprise: Surveys, Wo rld Bank

'11te quality ofthe mvestmmt~ contributes strollgly to growth, prpc1ud:i and employmm creatiOn--4U ofWliUli_ essentiaJ fOr sustainable reductions income poverty. Government poliei5 mel behaYiOn pay &

key role insbaping the investment c1im;m., They iDfluence the securityofpropert'f rights, approaclles to regulatienand taxatiODt the provision of~the tUncti.oDiug offinmdal and 1abormarlt~ and broader governance features such as corruption. hDproving govmunentpolid'es and behaviors that shape the mvestmalt climate an growth and reduces pOVerty. In the past several years. the World Bank

and other multilateral deve1.Qpment banks have increased collection ofdata on the investment climate through the Brit~e Surveys and Doing Business surveys. Together, these survey programs help countries to idetttUY major bottlenecks to private sector growth and to concentrate reforms to improve the busmess enmtmment

In Enterprise Surveys senior managers ranked pollcy uncertainty as the main business constraint,but every country. is different. For example, in Bang1ad~ the top business constraint' lack ofte1iable electricity, whereaS in Hungary the main business i:mstraint reported is lUgh tu rates. In Guatemala, the main problem is crime. theft, and disorder. These surveys tell us that, compated With

other developing country regions. SUb.. SaharanAfrica is a high-cost, high-riSkplace to do business resulting in less investment, less employment. lower incomes, less

powthand competitiveness, and higher poverty. But datafor 2OOS4OO6 alIo showtbat the pace ofreform in ub-Sabatan

~has acwerated. moving the region from last to third place

COUnt1i.es dUfer signific:antly in how they ~e the entry ew businesses. According to the mo cent Doing

Bua:inetI.s survey oDlytwo countrl made:' more difficult to start a busines in 2006. During the same time, 43 countries mtroduc:ed reforms to make it easi start a business. Some COlDltdei, like Rwanda, are finding that refOrms in the bliSiDess environment are paying of[ Beginning in 2001 l\w2Dda introducednew company and bbot Jaws. fOllowed by laJid titling reforms in2002. streamlined custOms procedure bnproved credit registries, and simplifiedjudid.al ~ures. inee initiating reform, Rwanda has bad economic growth a eraging 3.6 percent a year-among the highest fOr non-oil-producing tates in Africa.

Time to start a business (days) 80

60

40

20

o

Source: Doin9 BUSintss 2006

-

- low and middle income average e-

~

;--

.- ~ - - -

i--

-

r=-- - I

... I'- r. - :tiiI'ii I~~2D84

-

iOCI& .20116 20iIl Burkina Faso China Czech RepubliCBelarus

.-

~,

- iii ,-

~ r-: -- -EI Salvador MeXICO

Countries that made at least one reform in 2005-2006 by region (%)

Eastern Europe ~ Central Asia

OEeD high income

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East &. North Africa

utin America 8t Caribbean

East Asia &. Pacific

South Asia

20 40 60 80 100

Source: Doing Busintss database.

---

. a business Starting b siness April 2006 time required to start a new u

100 days or more

7(}"99 d,ys .~~ S(}"69 d,ys

- ;P,;2()...49 d,ys less thOin 10 days -~ no datil

/'

;..,.......__

Jl. Caribbean73 da s to.

. h-income countries Hig 21 days

Latin America "I.

Europe If{ Central Asia 32 days

R.~.s,.~ Fe-der.lloo

East Asia If{ Pacific 46 days

(~

Sub-Saharan Africa 62 days

Au , tr .ll .

b' In Canada, it takes only three days to start a business and requires two procedureS..

In Republic of Korea there are 12 procedures needed to start a business, a process that takes 22 days to complete.

In EI Salvador, business start-up time now takes 14 fewer days than in 2004.

Suriname's business start-up time is the highest-694 days to complete the required procedures.

~ Doing Business Project World Bank

~ Enterprise Surveys World Bank

~ Private Participation in Infrastructu re Database

Iwww.doingbusiness.org Irru.worldbank.org/ EnterpriseSurveys/ Ippi.worldbank.org

usiness rms ~ Privatization database Irru.worldbank.org/Privatizationsave their entrepreneurs time, and fewer applications are rejected

for flawed or insufficient paperwork.

Economy DO

Gotelllmc:e cle!lCt.lbes. states Ie aDd exe:.dse authority. and how they praride and manage pub ~ and semces. diDjJ e delivery of basicserri~ iDfiast:ructttr and a soancl iDvestmeD dlma Good governance is associated with citizen participadoD, and 0 eraII improved accountabDity ofpubJic ofBdalsbydtizeos. lt fimdament;i1 to development and economic powth.

Control of corruption in South Asia, percentile ranking 2005

I Bhutan

Maldives

Sri Lanka

India

Ne pa I

~ lPakistan ~ Ii=""IBan gladesh IIoiii;;I

Afgha nista n I---1

The percentile rank indicates the percentage of countries worldwide that rate below the selected country (subject to a margin of error). Higher values indicate better governance ratings. The statistically likely range of the governance indicator is shown as a thin black line. For instance, a bar extending to 75 percent with thin black lines showing a range of 60 to 85 percent means that an estimated 75 percent of countries rate worse and an estimated 25 percent rate better than that country. At the 90 percent confidence level, only 60 percent of countries rate worse, while 15 percent of countries rate better

. Kra.ly;md M. Mastruui 2006: GovtrflOn,e Matters V: 1996-2005

Governancehas several dtinenli.oDs: prQCe5S bywhich governments are ~ monitored, and replaced; the cap:itJ or government to e&ctive1y formulate implement ~dpolicies; and the~~ ofcitizenS and the state fOr the in'~lfiOJ:t8 that govern inferactionS between Peatures ofgoodgovernance such as fief: and &ir dedions,mpec:t for individual liberties and property rights, a&ee and Wmnt pre open and bnpartialjudiciary, and weIl4.nfbrmedand drectm ~

~ allconttibute to strong and. capable institutions oft:be state.

Corrupti~ abuse ofpu,blic Oftite fOr private gain.-.is only one aspect of aovemam:e. others include poor bumuc:r.itic: capability and irleftktiv checks aDd balances. Cormptioli ~ affectS the prcMsi'01l ofsocia1 serif PUbJi sector programs Ch as e~health. water and sauitationare underminedWbm public 1Und$ earmarked1br their prm)iion are diverted for private use. This CODltdtn:rtcS to low enrollment and graduation ~ and poor health outcomes. Corruption ~ increase the cost ofdoing business: firiDs

0.0

Average score of public sector and institutions cluster for selected countries, 2005

4.0 1-----------------

ij 3.S .r:

~ 3.0 " '".9 2.5 1;; ~ 2.0 3 1.5

~ 1.0 !i '" 0.5

Tanzania India BolivIa Indonesia Nigeria Lao Uzbekistan Central PDR Africa

Rep. Source: World Bank, Resource Aliocation Index

Unofficial payments to the government (% of sales) 2005 3.0 .-----------------

2.S

2.0

1.5

1.0

O.S

Source: World Bank, Enterprise Surveys 2005

have to make unofiidal payments to "set things done" with regard to CUitoJD1l, taxes aJUi licenses, and business m8DaFfS have to spend too much time on ed tape.

~ the quaJityi)fbtitutionsPldgovemance outcomU' clli1icu1t, and often subjectto largemargbl$ of error. nata for one dimension ofgo\UJ18DC~on.trQ of couUptiOll-ce p~ented in the map. The dataue an

~emeasure derived:&om. several sources ofiDfOnnecl w~1iomboth theprivate and public sector.

'11le ~ repres.eDts data on control ofcorruptionJ;y ~ fi:om the best performing ~~) to the pooratperfomnng (low. quatti1e). that some d~"

c:ountdes betterscores em some ___~

than ~ countries.

The World Bank's Country Policy and InstitutioJW Assessmen (CPIA) is an annual exercise by World Bmk staff' to measure the extent to which a country's policy and institutional framework supports sustainable growth and poverty eduction. Note that CPlA indicators examine policies and institutions, not development outcomes, which can depend on forces Outiide a country' control There are 16 Crlterla grouped info four chisterS =one ofthe clusters (sbown.m the chart OD the eft) is th -public seCtor ~ementand institutiOlll cluster.This d et iDclud five aiterla: propeity~ and ru1e-based government, .:Of budget and financial manageal efficiency ofrevenue moblli@tion, quality ofpQlic d transparency. acCOtm~ and corruption in the public sector.

Controlling corruption control of corruption from the Worldwide Governance Indicators, percentile rank, 2005

Best quart il e (75 th ilnd above) Second best quartile (50th and above per~ntile) Th ird best quartile (25th and above percentile) ..... Bottom qu,rtile (below 25th qu'rtile) no d ata

co U nit e d S tat e s

(" .. v.~)

( N.~,*IIitInrh(US)~

("'-'(US))'

Austrilii

~,-" /

N~III (I. C(1/~dQnla (h)

;"'-7' N~' ::'9 v ~'

--

,

Nine Sub-Saharan African countries rank in the second-best quartile in control of corruption,

Countries that tackle corruption and improve rule of law can increase national incomes by as much as 4 times in the long term and child mortality can fall by as much as 75 percent.

World Bank: Governance and Anti-Corruption

.. Tran sparency International

Iwww.govindicators.org

Iwww.transparency.org

Economy []I]

Bconomies have 'beco0le ~r~OD other for goods. sari...Jabor, and capitaL ~ iDCoUPatioD ana cOImnupicadons bdmolQlft expandiag fiDandal mar'ke..,." cheaper transportatioJl ~ have embled easter JDOVement of Iahor and capital between CO'UDtdes, acee1.era11ng BloW intepatiOD,but many bani i'eJrt8iD. The...ts from global mtegratiOD :need to be equitablyshared ~countries as weD as wlthiil a ~

'n.ctit:iotfa1 p~ produ~ ~have~ :a,ew,!~~

~~dkmmd~.~~~ ~ ti~~i~.~~~; countrieS aft~f~camw m~m~in_tit8, With JDslietmums. $killed as we11 as UDskillfdJabor seekingemp1oy:m.ent: fOrdgD cOu2lt1':id:in pursuit ofhighet wages. mp.-mcomt economies are

1o~ atthe developing world to meet e increasec1 demand fol' technoloSf work.er.s,

the global ~n~beco-. ~ integrat~the1'elative ~e mde bas increased. u..aae in~was~to 45~ 0 ~gt0S8 c1omestiePl4uct (GDp)in2004 p fioin 32 ~in~

Merchandise trade (% of GDP) 80 ~------------------------------------------------

60 f--~ 1------/

40

20

East Asia &: Europe &: Latin America 8{ Middle East &: South Asia Sub-Saharan High Income Pacific Central Asia Caribbean North Africa Africa

Source: World Developm ent Indicators database

Overall and agricultural trade restrictive index (%) 2005 40 ~------------------------------------------------

II Overall 30 f-----------I,

D Agriculture 20 f-----------f

10 f----t

Canada European J'p,n United States High income Union

Source-: World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2006

1--,..,--"'--'6- 1

Migrant population (% of total population)

14 ,---------------------------------12 f--

10 f-

High income High income: European OECD Union

Source: World Dcve!opme nl lndicators datab;li~

Foreign direct investment (% of total investment) 20 ,--------------------------------

15 ~------~,-~ ~~-----------------10

1

Source: World Development Indicators database

Over the:same period, trade in Benices incrU$ed from 8 percent to 11 percent ofglobal GDP. But agri and industrial goods still dominate wOrld trade, accounting for 80 percent oftotal trade (exports plus 1lllp0rts) in 2004. While some developing countries, such as China

and. India, are making rapid progress as exporters ofgoods and services, the high-income economies mnaccount for 72 percent ofworld merchandise exports, ofwhich exports to the developjng co\U1tries amounted to 16 percent in2004 Between 1994 and 2004 merchandise exports ofthe highincome countries grew at 1.2 percent a year in nominal terms. Developing country exports grew at u.s percent a year during this period. I\ec1uctiOllS in tariffand non-tarift"barriers have

helped 0 spur trade,1mt many trade barriers rem.atn.'lhese barriers are costly tobOth CODSUm

. ~pecl countries and producers in d~ coUiltries. The poorest countries

impose the most restric:t:ions to protect their producers and raise revenues fur their.governmm But rich countries often impose their highest barriers on the exports ofdeveloping countries, especially agricultural products. Total agric:u1ttmal support in OSCD countries exceeded $385 bilUon in 2005, encouraging greater production inOECD countries and undercutting developing c:

Merchandise trade exports and imports as a share of GDP, 2004

less than 40%

4()-S9% 60-74%

75-99%

100% or more

no data

..:..-

,...

Brazil 207%

% ofGDP 2004

Low income Middle income High income

Russian Federation

37% 61% 42%

;,'

/

'

exports and imports of services as a share of GDP, 2004

less than 10%

10-14%

15-19%

20-34%

35% or more

no data

Trade in computer services is an increasingly important contribution to many countries' economies

Brazil 5%

Trade in services

South Africa 9%

Low income 10% ,i

.~ ~-~ .

(Marshall IslandS)

" N~ Ca''''rmlD (Ft)

Economy QD

Middle income 11%

High income 11%

World exports of services grew from $815 million in 1990 to over $2 billion in 2004.

~ World Bank Iwww.worldbank.orgftrade Developing countries increased their exports of services from $111 million in 1990 to $424 million in 2004.

~ Organisation for Economic Iwww.oecd.o Co-operation and Development rg

Albania increased its trade in services by more than 20 times in nominal terms between 1990 and 2004.

~ International Monetary Fund Iwww.imf.org But 29 countries had a lower ratio of trade in services to GOP in 2004 compared to 1990.

~ World Trade Organization Iwww.wto.org (go to Trade Topics, select Services Gateway) Luxembourg had the highest ratio of trade in services to GOP (169 percent) in 2004.

~ United Nations Conference on Trade and Development www.unctad.org

Source: Org:lnis:ltion for Economic Co~oj>eration iIInd Development, Development Assistillnce Committee

- --

---

Denmark 2,037 0.85 2,185 O.SO 148 7

France 8,473 0.41 H ,IlO 0.61 5,638 67

Germany 7,534 0.28 15,509 0.51 7,975 106

Italy 2,462 0.15 9,262 0.51 6,SOI 276

Luxembourg 236 0.83 328 1.00 93 39

Netherlands 4,204 0.73 5,D70 0.80 867 21

Spain 2,437 0.24 6,925 0.59 4,488 184

Sweden 2,722 0.78 4,025 1.00 1,303 48

United Kingdom 7,883 0.36 14,600 0.59 6,717 85

Other EU membersl 4,899 0.36 9,206 0.60 4,306 88

EU members,