Atlantic Voices Vol 5, No. 01 (January 2015)
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Transcript of Atlantic Voices Vol 5, No. 01 (January 2015)
ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 1
- Flora Pidoux
Since Obama’s election in 2009, Asia
has been put at the center of America’s
foreign policy, as illustrated by the
American President’s recent visit to India.
Determined to withdraw from
Afghanistan and Iraq, Washington wished
to shift its focus on a region where
alliances needed to be reasserted as China
was slowly regaining its historical
influence.
In Asia, the United States is faced with
counter strategies aimed at deterring its
engagement in China’s backyard. Beijing,
following the principles of Sun Tzu and
the Game of Go, is trying to defend their
interests by building alliances with its
immediate neighbors and exploiting the
West’s tense relations with Russia.
This issue aims to addressing the role
of Asia in today’s world order and the
implication of the new American pivot to
Asia for NATO. While this rebalancing
strategy seems to loosen the Euro-Atlantic
ties, it also appears to have brought China
and Russia closer, and fueled the
competition between the first and second
economic powers.
Political leaders present at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum (Source: AP/Press Association Images )
Looking Far East: Pivoting Global
Security To Asia-Pacific
Volume 5 - Issue 1 January 2015
Contents:
Rebalancing Towards Long Term Challenges To U.S. Security
Phillip Ulrich provides interesting insight into the challenges that the U.S is currently
facing after the 2009 Obama administration’s refocusing of U.S foreign policy.
China’s Anti-Access Challenge and America’s Air-Sea Battle
Response
Eirik Torsvoll analyzes both China’s and the United States’ current military and eco-
nomic goals, strategies, and capabilities to predict the future threats and obstacles that
may arise between these two nations in the near future.
Sino-Russian Ties And The Emerging Role Of The Asia-Pacific Region Christopher Weidacher Hsiung examines the role that the Asia-Pacific region plays in
global finance and the recent interest that Russia, the U.S, and the EU has in furthering relations due to the region’s economic growth.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 2
extricate American forces and resources. The problems
include extensive budget cuts, aggressive Russian be-
havior in Ukraine and the rise of the Islamic State in
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). These events mean that
NATO and European Allies seem to return to past
prominence and relevance for the United States.
The Moment For A Rebalance
The need for a rebalance of U.S. foreign policy to-
wards the Asia-Pacific was based on several factors.
Firstly, the United States has large economic interests
in the region, with some of its largest trading partners
situated in that area. Secondly, the United States had
been absent from the region since 2001 when U.S. for-
eign policy focused on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In that time, China’s influence has risen, and the re-
balance is an effort to counter the mounting Chinese
dominance towards neighboring countries. Thirdly, the
United States had to reaffirm its commitment to its
allies in the region. For example Japan and Korea who
have found themselves increasingly under Chinese pres-
sure, due to the absence of the United States since
2001.
The opportunity for making a rebalance of U.S. for-
eign policy has presented itself, as the United States
was finally able to move attention and resources away
from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. These resources
could then be diverted to the Asia-Pacific.
Additionally the Strategic Guidance asserted that the
U.S. engagement in Europe could be downsized, as:
Most European countries are now producers of security
rather than consumers of it. Combined with the drawdown in
By Philip Christian Ulrich
A s the Obama administration took office in
2009, it wanted to redefine and refocus
U.S. foreign policy. The objective was to
disengage from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in
order to focus on other international challenges, do-
mestic reforms, and reconstruction. Even as President
Obama announced an increase of 30,000 troops for
Afghanistan he proclaimed: “the nation that I’m most
interested in building is our own”1 To many, this signaled
a more withdrawn U.S. foreign policy under Presi-
dent Obama.
In January 2012, the Obama administration pub-
lished a new “Strategic Guidance” to steer U.S. for-
eign policy. The new document presented a new pri-
ority for the United States:
U.S. economic and security interests are inextricably
linked to developments in the arc extending from the Western
Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and
South Asia, creating a mix of evolving challenges and oppor-
tunities. Accordingly, while the U.S. military will continue
to contribute to security globally, we will of necessity re-
balance toward the Asia-Pacific region.2
With this statement the official policy of the Unit-
ed States became to conduct a rebalance of its foreign
policy to the Asia-Pacific region, comparative to its
strategic importance.
However, the rebalance is currently failing, due to
both domestic and international circumstances, which
have forced the United States to return to regions
from which the Obama administration had hoped to
Rebalancing Towards Long Term Challenges To U.S. Security
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 3
Iraq and Afghanistan, this has created a strategic opportunity to
rebalance the U.S. military investment in Europe, moving from a
focus on current conflicts toward a focus on future capabilities.3
These factors made it possible to rebalance U.S. for-
eign policy to allocate resources and strategic attention to
the Asia-Pacific region, in correlation with the region’s
importance to the United States.
U.S. Efforts To Rebalance
In order to conduct the rebalance towards the Asia-
Pacific region, the United States has followed a strategy
based on three pillars: economic, diplomatic and military.
Economic: The United States has worked on closer
economic cooperation in the region, through the Trans-
Pacific Partnership (TTP). While the TTP is not meant to
exclude China from economic cooperation in the region4,
it is meant to harness Chinese influence by creating an
international network with clearly defined rules. Present-
ly China has expressed interest in joining the TTP, but is
not yet a member. Even if China does not join the TTP,
some sort of regional economic cooperation will be
something which the United States will pursue.
Diplomatic: The United States increased its diplomatic
efforts in the region while Hillary Clinton was Secretary
of State, an effort which has decreased somewhat while
John Kerry has been Secretary of State.
The diplomatic efforts have led to an opening in rela-
tions between the United States and Vietnam as well as
with Myanmar. These diplomatic efforts meant that the
United States gained support among a number of coun-
tries in the region, who had not previously had good dip-
lomatic relations with the U.S. The many travels by Sec-
retaries Clinton and Panetta and later Secretaries Kerry
and Hagel, was a clear signal to the regional allies, as well
as new partners, that the United States was serious about
the rebalance, and intended to increase its efforts in the
region. This reassured regional allies and partners, that
the United States would support them in their territo-
rial disputes with China or at least act as a counter-
weight to Chinese influence in the region.
Military: Besides the economic and diplomatic ef-
forts, the United States has pursued closer cooperation
with nations in the region, including closer military-to-
military cooperation as well as rotational deployments
of U.S. military personnel5.
These cooperation and deployments are supple-
mented by the fact that it is the intention of the U.S.
Navy to deploy 60 percent of its fleet to the Asia-
Pacific region in 2020, compared to a 50/50 division
today between the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific6.
If one looks at the efforts by the United States, the
diplomatic and military efforts look like a modern ver-
sion of “Containment” known from the Cold War.
Closer military-to-military cooperation and rotational
deployments of military forces combined with diplo-
matic efforts in China’s neighboring countries, give a
distinct look of containment of China, in order to
counter its increased influence in the region over the
past decade.
However, the increased efforts seen from the Unit-
ed States following the publication of the 2012 Strate-
gic Guidance has decreased in the past year due to chal-
lenges arising in regions from which the Obama-
administration had hoped to disengage the United
States.
“Leading From Behind” To Focus
One of the major foreign policy priorities for the
Obama administration was to end U.S. commitment in
Iraq, and begin the process of drawing down the U.S.
and NATO missions in Afghanistan. The objective was
to end the state of constant conflict in which the Unit-
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 4
ISIL in Syria on the 22nd of September 20147.
The aim of this policy of non-intervention was to
make sure that the United States would not have to
commit resources, either economic, diplomatic or mil-
itary, to a new long term conflict which was not essen-
tial to their national security. Instead, the United States
was to focus its foreign policy attention increasingly
towards the Asia-Pacific, and its resources towards eco-
nomic reconstruction within the United States.
Implications For NATO
A U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific
would mean a less prominent role for
the European allies in U.S. foreign poli-
cy. Instead, Asian allies would more
likely be the center of attention for U.S.
diplomatic and military efforts. The de-
creased emphasis would be a result of
both the geographical distance between
the European powers to the Asia-Pacific,
and to the consequent small role, that NATO as an alli-
ance plays in the Asia-Pacific region. Because there are
no ongoing or immediate crises in the Asia-Pacific re-
gion which would warrant NATO intervention, the
Alliance would not be able to argue for a continual
presence in the region, on a scale, which would make it
useful for the United States in its efforts to rebalance.
The individual members of NATO have great interests
in the Asia-Pacific region. However, the Alliance as a
whole has a limited role to play in the region due to the
purpose and scale of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance. The
purpose of the Alliance is to protect its member states,
as well as act as the foundation for military contingency
operations, such as in Libya. It would not be possible to
extend this to a more or less permanent presence in the
Asia-Pacific in order to support a U.S. rebalance.
ed States had found itself since the terrorist attacks on
9/11 2001.
Over the following years, the Obama administra-
tion pursued a policy of keeping the United States
away from engagement in new conflicts. Particularly
the Arab Spring in early 2011 presented challenges for
the administration to uphold its policy of non-
intervention in new conflicts, as U.S. interests were
potentially threatened by unrest in the Middle East.
The policy was followed with regards to the public
uprising in Tunisia and Egypt
as well as uprisings in the
Gulf states. The United
States chose not to intervene
or to make noticeable public
statements against the rulers
in these countries. In the
case of Egypt, this ended
when President Obama
called for the resignation of
President Mubarak, however no further U.S. efforts
were made. Thereby the administration kept a dis-
tance to events in the Middle East and avoided possi-
ble U.S. engagement.
However, the Obama administration was pres-
sured to intervene in Libya in order to prevent the
killing of civilians. The U.S. commitment to the Libya
campaign was characterized by what became known
as “leading from behind”. In order to keep a low U.S.
engagement, the United States quickly transferred
responsibility to NATO.
After the engagement in Libya, the Obama admin-
istration returned to its policy of limited engagement
with regards to the civil war in Syria. This policy of
non-intervention persisted until U.S. planes attacked
U.S. President Barack Obama joined Leaders of the Asso-
ciation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and leaders
of Southeast Asia 2012. (Source: Agence France-Presse)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 5
attack against them all.” This is a binding, treaty obliga-
tion. It is non-negotiable. And here in Wales, we’ve left ab-
solutely no doubt -- we will defend every Ally.
Second, we agreed to be resolute in reassuring our Al-
lies in Eastern Europe. Increased NATO air patrols over the
Baltics will continue. Rotations of additional forces through-
out Eastern Europe for training and exercises will contin-
ue. Naval patrols in the Black Sea will continue. And all 28
NATO nations agreed to contribute to all of these measures --
for as long as necessary.”10
The redeployment of forces to Europe is a sign that
European countries are not able to be “producers of
security” to such a degree that the United States can
limit its commitment to the region such as the Obama-
administration had hoped.
2014 also saw the emergence of another contingen-
cy, which limits the ability of the Obama-
administration to carry through its rebalance to Asia-
Pacific.
The rise of ISIL and its conquest of territory in both
Syria and Iraq has forced the United States to recommit
military forces to Iraq in order to bolster the govern-
ment in Baghdad.
U.S. air operations began in early August 2014, in
order to protect U.S. personnel in the city of Erbil as
well as protect Yezidi civilians trapped on Mount Sin-
jar11. Since then, air operations expanded to include
operations against ISIL inside Syria. These air opera-
tions against ISIL have been supplemented by the de-
ployment of advisors to train and assist Iraqi forces in
their struggle against ISIL forces on the ground.
The recommitment of U.S. forces to the Middle
East, in line with the deployment of forces to Europe,
limits the ability of the United States to follow through
on the rebalance to Asia-Pacific.
A less prominent U.S. presence in Europe would in
turn require the European allies to take on a greater part
of burden sharing within the NATO Alliance, as well as
in international missions. The need for greater European
participation would arise as American resources increas-
ingly transferred to the United States or the Asia-Pacific.
This increased burden sharing was to be part of the ability
of the European allies to be “producers of security”
meaning greater role in international missions and within
the NATO Alliance.
In all, the U.S. rebalance is seen by many as a threat
to the central role of Europe in U.S. foreign policy. This
means that the Alliance has had to consider the more
withdrawn U.S. attitude during the considerations on the
future of NATO following the end of the International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan.
A Failing Rebalance - International Challenges
Presently the Obama administration’s rebalance to
Asia-Pacific is threatened by factors on two fronts: inter-
national and domestic.
Internationally, the Russian annexation of the Crime-
an Peninsula in the spring of 2014 meant that the United
States has had to reengage in Europe, in order to show
support for the Eastern European allies in NATO. In ad-
dition to returning battle tanks to Europe, the U.S. Army
expects to send an additional 3,000 soldiers to Europe
complimenting the 67,000 American soldiers already in
the European theater 8 9.
Following the NATO Summit in Wales in September
2014, President Obama emphasized the United States’
commitment to the NATO Alliance:
“First and foremost, we have reaffirmed the central mis-
sion of the Alliance. Article 5 enshrines our solemn duty to each
other -- “an armed attack against one…shall be considered an
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 6
A Failing Rebalance – Domestic Challenges
Domestically the rebalance to Asia-Pacific is
under pressure from the strained financial situation
of the American Department of Defense. In order
to get the deficit in U.S. finances under control, in
2011 Congress agreed on the Budget Control Act,
which set up an automatic solution to deficit re-
duction in case Congress failed to reach a political
agreement. The automatic solut ion,
“Sequestration”, called for automatic budget cuts
across all federal budgets.
For the Department of Defense this meant a
$500 billion reduction over a ten year period. This
would supplement the already planned $485 bil-
lion proposed by the Obama-administration for the
same period.
The passing of the Budget Control Act in 2011
and its enactment in the 2012 and 2013 defense
budgets meant a great challenge to the Department
of Defense. In budget years 2014 and 2015, se-
questration has been put on hold and this has lim-
ited its impact. However, if Congress is unable to
find a solution, sequestration will return from Oc-
tober 2015. This will mean further heavy reduc-
tions in defense budgets, and thus also in the ability
of the United States to deploy forces to contingen-
cies like the ones in Ukraine and Iraq.
These extensive budgetary problems have
caused major issues for the Department of De-
fense. Firstly, it has limited its options for adapting
to the changing security situation in which the
United States finds itself, with Russia asserting it-
self in Eastern Europe, campaign against ISIL and
the continued rise of China as a future peer-
competitor. Secondly, sequestration and continu-
ing resolutions has limited the department’s ability
to implement budgetary cuts while also maintaining
readiness and investments in modernizing existing
weapons systems as well as in new systems.
Budget cuts mean that the strained resources are
unable to match the demands of following through on
expanding U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific as well
maintaining a presence in Europe and conducting the
campaign in Iraq and Syria.
Consequences Of A Failing Rebalance
The foreign policy context in which the rebalance
was to take place was one of transitioning from a peri-
od of constant conflict since 2001 to a new period of
focusing on long-term challenges to the United States.
A precondition for the realization of this situation was
for the United States to keep out of new conflicts,
which did not involve central U.S. national interests.
As was seen with the Arab Spring uprisings, the
Obama-administration tried to pursue a more with-
drawn policy, in order to fulfill this precondition for
the rebalance.
The increased U.S. presence in Europe and the
creation of a coalition against ISIL, meant that by ne-
cessity the relationship and need for cooperation be-
tween the United States and its European Allies will
remain closer than the Obama administration had
wanted in 2012.
Although it was never the intention of the Obama
administration to end cooperation with its European
Allies, it was the intention that as the need for U.S.,
presence in Europe decreased, diplomatic and mili-
tary focus could be shifted to the Asia-Pacific. This
would in turn mean less focus on Europe than on the
Asia-Pacific. This would particularly be the case since
the NATO Alliance does not have a central role in
U.S. efforts in Asia-Pacific, and therefore the im-
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 7
portance of European allies would wane. This situa-
tion has not materialized.
The relevance of and commitment to the NATO
Alliance for the United States has, in turn, risen in the
past year, by events in Eastern Europe and the Middle
East. This in turn means a more central and relevant
role for the European allies.
The United States again needs NATO to bolster its
stance against Russia, something which the Obama
administration had hoped would not be necessary fol-
lowing the end of the Cold War. The implication for
NATO of the Russian behavior in Eastern Europe,
and the failing rebalance to Asia, is a return to promi-
nence in U.S. foreign policy. Rather than the U.S.
rebalance making Asian allies more central to U.S.
foreign policy, NATO is again the central forum for
cooperation, dialogue and coalition building for the
United States.
For the United States, it means that another
chance for focusing increasingly on the Asia-Pacific
region is limited by unforeseen contingencies12. These
contingencies mean that the precondition of a transi-
tional period from perpetual conflict to peace is no
longer possible. Rather, the U.S. rebalance will con-
tinue in a decreased fashion, primarily focused on
more limited diplomatic and economic factors. How-
ever, the military show of support which several allies
in the region has sought after, will be less forthcoming
given the economic strains on the U.S. Department of
Defense as well as the pull back to regions from which
the United States had hoped to increasingly disengage.
Philip Chr. Ulrich holds an M.A. in American
Studies from the University of Southern Denmark. He
analyzes American foreign and defense policy for the
Danish website Kongressen.com. He has previously
worked as head of section at the Royal Danish De-
fence College, where he published several briefs on
U.S. defense and foreign policy. He has also complet-
ed an internship at the Lessons Learned / Develop-
ment Section at the Civil-Military Cooperation Cen-
tre of Excellence.
1Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the Way For-
ward in Afghanistan and Pakistan (1st December 2009)
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-
address-nation-way-forward-afghanistan-and-pakistan
2 Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (Washington D.C., January 2012), p. 2
3 Ibid, p. 3
4 Mireya Solis: The Containment Fallacy: China and the TTP http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2013/05/24-china-transpacific-partnership-solis
5 Marine Rotational Force – Darwin http://www.marforpac.marines.mil/Units/MarineRotationalForceDarwin.aspx
6 Jim Garamone: Panetta Describes U.S. Shift in Asia-Pacific, American Forces Press Service http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=116591
7 Remarks by the President on airstrikes in Syria (23rd September 2014) http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/23/statement-president-airstrikes-syria
8 Kristina Wong: Army plans to shift 3,000 troops to Europe http://thehill.com/policy/defense/229105-army-plans-to-shift-3000-troops-to-europe
9 Alexander A. Burnett: Command assists departure of battle tanks from Europe http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=119695
10 Remarks by President Obama at NATO Summit Press Conference (5th September 2014 http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/05/remarks-president-obama-nato-summit-press-conference
1 Statement by the President (7th August 2014) http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/08/07/statement-president
2 The United States has attempted twice since the end of the Cold War to shift focus to the Asia-Pacific: Philip Chr. Ulrich: The U.S. Pivot To-wards Asia-Pacific. Third Time’s the Charm?, (Copenhagen, Royal Danish Defence College, 2013)
About the author
Bibliography
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 8
By Eirik Torsvoll
T he privileged position Washington has enjoyed in
the Asia-Pacific since 1945 is under pressure. Chi-
na’s rise, or return, depending on how you look at
it historically, is challenging the hegemonic presence of the
United States. The American position has been underpinned by
the country’s superior military power, which has acted as the
ultimate guarantor of Washington’s ability to influence region-
al developments. However, U.S. military power is dependent
upon projecting power through bases as well as access to the
theater of operations. This fact is currently being exploited by
Beijing. For several years now, China has been expanding its
missile capabilities, building a
large and complex missile net-
work capable of credibly threat-
ening U.S. forces deployed in
China’s maritime periphery.
These capabilities form the foun-
dation for what are popularly
referred to as anti-access and
area-denial (A2/AD) capabili-
ties.
Defeating such measures has
been at the top of the agenda for
Pentagon planners in recent
years, particularly as the United States has begun its long-term
strategic rebalance to the Asia-Pacific. The American response
has been a military war-fighting concept known as the Air-Sea
Battle concept, which proposes to break through the A2/AD
systems by creating a networked, integrated force, that has the
ability to attack targets in-depth, even in a prohibitive anti-
access environment.
This article will argue that China’s A2/AD capabilities will
be a major factor in numerous security issues faced by the
United States and China in the Asia-Pacific. It will start by
defining the conflicting regional goals of Beijing and Wash-
ington by way of their grand strategies. Thereafter, it will
describe China’s A2/AD capabilities and their implication
for these strategies, as well as two worrying variables that
could increase China’s propensity for bellicosity in the fu-
ture. Finally, it will review the U.S. Air-Sea Battle con-
cept, which has been presented as a way to counter A2/AD
capabilities.
Competing Grand Strategies In The Asia-Pacific
A grand strategy can be defined, in the words of John
Lewis Gaddis of Yale University, as “the calculated rela-
tionship of means to large
ends”. Put differently, it is the
answers to the questions:
“where are you”, “where do you
want to go”, and “how do you
get there?” For China and the
United States the answers to
these queries will be at odds
with one another in Asia-Pacific
security affairs. This is because
America’s interests are defined
by being an established (and
therefore status quo) power,
while being a rising (and therefore likely revisionist) power
marks China’s concerns.
The U.S. Grand Strategy
With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the pre-
eminent U.S. position in the Asia-Pacific became even
more pronounced. Now acting as the sole superpower in a
unipolar system, Washington developed in the 1990s a
grand strategy for its international relations that can be
China’s Anti-Access Challenge And America’s Air-Sea Battle Response
Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert speaks to mod-
erator Michael O' Hanlon at the Brookings Institute about the Air-Sea
Battle concept. (Source: Photo credit: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Commu-
nication Specialist 1st Class Peter D. Lawlor)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 9
characterized as “primacy.” This approach is built on the
logic that a preponderance of U.S. power is the best way
to assure stability and peace, in addition to buttressing
U.S. political and economic interests. Washington there-
fore should strive to maintain its lead, particularly in mili-
tary capabilities.
The developments in the power configuration of the
world have changed the appropriateness and ability of
Washington to follow a global grand strategy of primacy,
but the basic approach of pursuing military dominance still
remains. With this aspiration in mind, it is no surprise that
Washington is concerned with China’s A2/AD challenge,
as this threatens to neutralize America’s established mili-
tary superiority and access to the maritime commons. The
fear of the consequences of Chinese capabilities has been
expressed in several official documents, such as the Pen-
tagon’s 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance and the Joint
Operational Access document.
The Chinese Grand Strategy
China’s grand strategy is harder to establish than the
American one, as Beijing does not release official white
documents describing its national security strategy. As
such, much ink has been spilled trying to discern what Chi-
na wants and how it will go about getting it, and, if in fact
it will pursue its goals in a strategic way or go after its in-
terest in a more ad hoc approach. Assuming China does
indeed follow a grand strategic rationale of its own, the
range of suggested strategies of Beijing runs a wide spec-
trum.
Beijing’s hardball approach to its territorial claims in
the South China Sea and East China Sea, its unilateral es-
tablishment of an air defense identification zone in the East
China Sea, and its continued military build-up, particularly
with the energetic pursuit of A2/AD capabilities, suggests
a desire to carve out a sphere of influence for itself in its
neighborhood. The intended end state seems to be a “zone
of exceptionalism,” where the regional norms, as well as
facts on the ground, would be bent towards China’s na-
tional interest.
China seems to be pursing this goal by advancing incre-
mentally, i.e. by employing a gradualist model of expan-
sion. This is displayed by its behavior in the South China
Sea, where it slowly but surely advances its assertions by
both challenging and openly defying the territorial claims
of its neighbors. Beijing’s current grand strategy therefore
appears to be geared toward creating a de facto sphere of
influence in the Asia-Pacific, casting doubt about Washing-
ton’s ability and will to intervene militarily during a hypo-
thetical conflict, and thereby “winning without fighting.”
It is within this context of clashing grand strategies that
the implications of China’s A2/AD capabilities become
apparent.
China’s A2/AD Capabilities
The idea behind anti-access and area-denial, to prevent
an enemy from accessing, as well as maneuvering within, a
theater of operation is not a new one. This is, in fact, a
timeless goal in military planning. Punji stick traps have,
for example, been used by various militaries throughout
history to slow down or prohibit the movement of enemy
infantry units, such as during the Vietnam War when the
Viet Cong used them to great effect against U.S. forces.
Interestingly, A2/AD means are traditionally employed by
a weaker party, in an attempt to offset the military superi-
ority of an adversary. It thus usually relies on exploiting
the cost-benefit ratio of a more powerful state by putting
their more capital-intensive assets at risk through, ideally,
relatively inexpensive means.
The novelty of today’s A2/AD measures, however, is
in the power of technology, which has made missile capa-
bilities much more potent and accessible. China now has
the ability to target U.S. bases and forces beyond ranges of
a thousand nautical miles. Its missile capabilities include
advanced cruise, ballistic, air-to-air, and surface-to-air
missiles, with greater precision and range than previously
possible. When this capability is coupled with existing and
expanding military power, such as modern submarines,
fighter jets, and minelayers, it becomes a dangerous pic-
ture for any U.S. commander attempting to operate near
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 10
or within China’s maritime periphery. The development
has turned the offense-defense balance decidedly in the
favor of the latter.
The reach and effectiveness of China’s missiles is signif-
icant, because much of the U.S. force projection in the
region is reliant on bases and access to the maritime com-
mons. When this is put at risk, decision-makers in Wash-
ington must make a much tougher call on whether to de-
ploy U.S. forces in a given situation. The calculus is wors-
ened further by the fact that U.S. forces are operating far
from home, being reliant on a long logistical chain, while
China would be operating in its own backyard. Beijing is
thus exploiting a “home field advantage” as well as the cost-
effectiveness of missile attacks against capital-intensive
U.S. military assets.
What is at stake is America’s ability to deter China
from using, or threatening to use, force against its neigh-
bors in the region. A response to China’s A2/AD capabili-
ties has therefore been deemed crucial in Washington.
Additionally, by being able to cast doubt over the United
States’ resolve and ability to intervene in a given situation,
Beijing is strengthening its overall regional power. This
allows China greater flexibility in pursuing favorable out-
comes to its strategic interests, including territorial dis-
putes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, as well as
changing the status of Taiwan. It could also lead decision-
makers in Beijing into thinking that it had the upper hand
in any conflict against the United States, and open up for
adventurism in new areas of China’s neighborhood.
Factors That Could Increase The Likelihood Of
Chinese Aggression
While it is not unreasonable to claim that China is not
likely to pursue any type of aggressive military actions in
its neighborhood, military planners need to be able to pro-
pose viable alternatives during worst-case scenarios, in
order to deter the adversary. Regarding Chinese
aggression, two factors that could increase the likelihood
of bellicosity are worth mentioning. These add to the need
for the United States to develop responses to potential
belligerence from Beijing, such as the proposed Air-Sea
Battle concept.
China’s First-Mover Advantage
The current unresolved maritime disputes in China’s
neighborhood has led some to worry that conflict between
the United States and China, for example over the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, might break
out due to a mistake or misunderstanding. However, oth-
ers worry not about miscalculation, but deliberate calcula-
tion based on offensive military doctrines on the part of
China. The latter could be one of the biggest threats to the
stability of the Asia-Pacific today.
Such a doctrine could be based on China’s so-called
“first-mover advantage.” Building on the logic of strategic
offense combined with tactical defense, this would entail
Beijing deciding to pre-empt its opponents by taking, for
example, the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and then daring oth-
er powers to reclaim it. If China’s seizure were successful,
its antagonists would face impediments to taking the is-
lands back, such as mounting a costly offensive, risking
further instability, and being potentially seen as an aggres-
sor. A comparison to Vladimir Putin’s hasty annexation of
Crimea and the somewhat tepid, at least militarily,
response from the West, seems apt to exemplify the
power of the first-mover advantage. Such an incentive
could combine with China’s potential short-term dilemma
to provoke hostile actions from Beijing.
China’s Short-Term Dilemma
Analysts have in recent years begun to see a slowdown
in the Chinese economy, and speculation has started over
whether Beijing’s astounding growth model has reached its
limits. This issue is compounded by other structural prob-
lems haunting China, such as environmental degradation,
water and farmland management issues, an aging popula-
tion, weak government, and rising food prices. Adding to
this, these problems are piling up simultaneously, and have
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 11
a dangerous potential of reinforcing each other. Thus, Beijing
could in the near-future face difficult tradeoffs between focus-
ing on its domestic economic security or continued expansion
of its regional security influence. A population that continues
to grow in age, nationalistic-inclinations, and expectations for
the future will exacerbate this predicament.
Decision-makers in Beijing may therefore be faced with a
short-term dilemma of acting on foreign policy goals now
while in a position of relative strength, or postponing any bold
actions for the future, but then with a potentially weaker hand
to play. This “window of opportunity” for China correspond-
ingly represents a “window of vulnerability” for the United
States. As such, the short-term period in U.S.-Sino relations
could represent the most critical period where Washington
needs to establish a firm deterrence against Chinese aggression.
America’s Air-Sea Battle Concept
The U.S. developed the current iteration of the Air-Sea
Battle (ASB) concept as a response to the rising A2/AD capa-
bilities of actors such as China. However, its conceptual ante-
cedent was introduced much earlier. The name is inspired by
the AirLand Battle concept, launched in 1981, which called for
closer cooperation between U.S. Land and Air forces to coun-
ter the numerical advantage of the Soviet Union’s forces in
Europe. In a similar fashion, the ASB, coined in the early
1990s, then refashioned and reintroduced in 2010 to fit newly
forming A2/AD challenges, is at heart an enterprise to create a
closer integrated and networked U.S. Sea and Air forces. This
is then supposed to be used to counter challenges to access in
the global commons, including air, sea, space, and cyberspace.
So how exactly does ASB envision defeating an adversary’s
A2/AD capabilities? It aims at creating pockets and corridors
under Washington’s control via a variety of means, including
air and sea operations, but also, importantly, potential actions
in space and cyberspace. These could be used sequentially or
concurrently, depending on the intensity needed. ASB thus
relies on a combination of current U.S. military assets, while
also requiring new technological investments. The latter in-
cludes acquiring penetrating strike assets, such as long-range
stealth bombers and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
An ASB-directed campaign would be aimed at affecting
an adversary’s A2/AD systems, attempting to disrupt their
abilities of command and control, as well defeating their
weapons platforms and missile launchers. An operation
against China would most likely initially rely heavily on U.S.
cyber and space capabilities to incapacitate and confuse their
computer networks. ASB also opens up for conventional
strikes on China’s mainland to take out their systems
through force, however this is an aspect of the concept that
has received widespread interest and criticism.
The criticism leveled against ASB has partly been be-
cause of a lack of understanding of the concept. Such confu-
sion is as good as inevitable when discussing a concept
whose actual war plan remains classified. Nevertheless, the
Pentagon did not do itself any favors when revealing ASB in
2010, and then waiting until 2013 to release an official un-
classified document with more details on its content. In the
meantime others were left to define ASB, sometimes badly.
One sticking point has been the proposed plan for strik-
ing China’s mainland. Some have presented this as the defin-
ing, and basically only, feature of ASB. This is not the case.
ASB is certainly more than mainland strikes, and envisions
giving U.S. decision-makers and military commanders the
freedom to choose how to respond during a crisis. This can
range, for example, from low-intensity shows of force, me-
dium-intensity cyber attacks, or high-intensity combined
operations of mainland strikes and attacks in other domains.
In other words, a mainland strike would probably only be
initiated in the most extreme of crisis situations.
Lastly, the question of timing is important to note. ASB
assumes that an actor like China would be the one to move
aggressively first, and thus it is only meant as a response, not
as a tool for a first strike. ASB is therefore, ideally, only
intended for its deterrent effect. It would create
disincentives to aggressive behavior where China's A2/AD
means, its first-mover advantage, and short-term dilemma
could influence Beijing to act differently.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 12
If You Want Peace, Prepare For War
Thinking about conflict between the United States and
China in the Asia-Pacific is indeed a grim exercise. It is
nonetheless a useful one, for that old saying still holds true:
if you want peace, prepare for war. From Washington’s
perspective, strengthening deterrence by proposing plausi-
ble ways of counteracting aggressive behavior from China
in an A2/AD environment is crucial. The question re-
mains, however, whether the ASB is the right approach for
the task or if there are other, more credible and convincing
ways, of countering China’s A2/AD challenge.
Eirik Torsvoll is the Vice President of YATA Norway.
He holds an M.A. in Law and Diplomacy from the Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, where
he studied U.S. foreign policy, security studies, and the
Asia-Pacific. He tweets at: @eiriktorsvoll.
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About the author
Bibliography
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 13
By Christopher Weidacher Hsiung
T his essay analyses recent developments of
Sino-Russia relations in the context of a
changing Asia-Pacific region. It is argued
that while China-Russia ties have been bolstered due
to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, for instance with an
unprecedented natural gas deal in May 2014 , steps to
forge closer bilateral relations have in fact been un-
derway ever since the end of the cold war, emanating
from both a response to jointly counterbalance the
U.S. to factors inherent to the bilateral relationship as
such.
All Eyes On The Asia-Pacific Region
Spurred by decades of robust economic perfor-
mance compared to that of the rest of the world, the
importance of the Asia-Pacific region, and especially
China, is growing fast. With the 2008 global financial
crisis, which hit the U.S and Europe hard, this devel-
opment has only been exacerbated in recent years.
According to the IMF, GDP growth for the Asia-
Pacific region in 2013 was 5.2%. The East Asia re-
gion, the fastest growing economic region within the
Asia-Pacific as such, grew by 6.7%. Since the global
financial crisis, China alone is responsible for 35% of
the world’s economic growth. On the other hand, the
economically troubled European Union was only able
to muster a meager 0.1% GDP growth in 2013. The
U.S economy, on path to recovery, did better with a
2.2% GDP growth in 2013.
The emerging role of the Asia-Pacific region as
engine and driver of global economic growth and dy-
namism has prompted the outside world to look in-
creasingly to the Asia-Pacific region. The EU has al-
ready close trade links with the region as it is one of
the leading trading partner of many Asian countries, a
position Europe seeks to sustain and enhance. The
U.S. has announced its strong interest in the region,
evident by a policy of rebalancing to Asia, or popular-
ly named “the U.S. pivot to Asia”. The policy, an-
nounced by the Obama administration in 2011, aims
to move American attention and resources away from
the Middle East and Europe to the Asia-Pacific region
through a series of diplomatic, economic and military
policies by forging closer cooperation with existing
alliances and engaging with emerging powers, espe-
cially China. The emerging role of the Asia-Pacific
region has also caught the interest of Russia. Moscow,
recognizing the growing economic role the Asia-
Pacific region can play for its economy and political
standing in world affairs, has thus initiated its own
“Asia pivot” seeking close ties with Asian countries
such as India, South Korea and Japan. For Moscow,
engaging with the East has mainly meant forging clos-
er ties with China.
Russia’s Recent Moves Towards China
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, Moscow
has increasingly tried to integrate itself into Asia-
Pacific, efforts symbolically marked by the fact that
Russia hosted the 2012 APEC meeting in Vladivostok.
However, as Russia foreign policy expert Bobo Lo has
argued, Russia’s “Asia pivot” is less of a comprehen-
Sino-RussianTiesAndTheEmergingRoleOf
TheAsia-Paci�icRegion
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 14
sive Asia policy than a China centered policy. Since Xi
Jinping became China’s new president in 2013 and Vladi-
mir Putin started his third term as Russia’s president in
2012, the two sides have been engaged in numerous high-
level encounters and met for several bilateral state visits
and in numerous multilateral settings, be it for BRICS
summits, at meetings for the China-Russia led Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), or for G-20 and APEC
summits.
China and Russia have tried to boost cooperation in
economy and trade, long lagging behind those of the
more developed political relations. Bilateral trade
amounted to 90 billion USD in 2013 (up from 40 billion
USD six years before) and goals were made to reach tar-
gets of 100 billion USD in
2015 and 200 billion USD
by 2020. Much of the
trade relations are cen-
tered around pursuing
closer energy cooperation,
illustrated by the signature
of the gigantic natural gas
deal in May 2014, worth a
staggering 400 billion USD,
the most significant achieve-
ment in this regard. Alt-
hough it is still too early to assess the commercial gains of
the agreement, the energy deal is, according to Beijing
and Moscow, a milestone in their bilateral energy rela-
tionship, especially considering that China and Russia had
been negotiating a natural gas deal for the last decade.
And in October 2014 when Chinese premier Li Keqiang
met his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, China
and Russia agreed to a 150 billion Yuan currency swap as
a move to further increase trade, but also to lessen Mos-
cow’s dependency on the dollar and promote the Chinese
Yuan as a global trade currency.
China and Russia have also intensified military rela-
tions with arms deals, such as the sale of S-400 surface-
to-air missiles, considered Russia’s most advanced air
and missile defense system. The Chinese purchase will
significantly enhance Beijing’s deterrence capabilities
against advanced air force powers. Plus, China and
Russia have increased bilateral and multilateral military
exercises, both at land and sea: for instance the SCO
“Peace Mission 2014” which was the largest military
exercise so far in the history of the organization.
On regional cooperation, China and Russia have
agreed to let the SCO expand with new members, as
India and Pakistan will
to join the organization
next year. Regarding
international hot spot
issues, China and Rus-
sia continue to coordi-
nate their positions,
for instance regarding
Syria. There are also
signs of increased coop-
eration in the Arctic
region, as Russia has
started to invite China to invest into oil and gas explo-
ration in the Russian Arctic.
Counterbalancing The U.S.
For many observers, particularly in the West, the
China-Russia relationship is often portrayed as nothing
else than a pragmatic and strategic response to the post
-cold war U.S-led international order, where Washing-
ton is perceived to be determined to remain the sole
super power by constraining China and Russia to chal-
lenge its positon. In the eyes of Beijing and Moscow,
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
stand during a signing ceremony at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing,
Nov. 9, 2014 (Source Reuters)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 15
U.S. behavior and policies such as NATO eastward ex-
pansion, the U.S. alliance system in Asia, U.S. support to
Taiwan, American military presence in Central Asia and
U.S criticism of domestic affairs and human rights in Chi-
na and Russia, are all clear examples of U.S. actions di-
rected at containing China and Russia. Since China and
Russia are not currently powerful enough to counterbal-
ance American power independently, Beijing and Mos-
cow have instead tried to do so jointly by developing clos-
er bilateral relations. The Ukraine crisis and the ongoing
standoff between Russia and the West is, according to
this perspective, just following a similar logic.
While the crisis in Ukraine surely has had this effect, it
is important to note that this crisis should be regarded as
reinforcing a larger general trend of improved Sino-
Russian relations underway ever since the end of the Cold
War. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, China
and the newly independent Russia needed to move fast to
consolidate diplomatic relations as both countries faced
new external and domestic challenges in the early post-
cold war years. For Russia this meant domestic turmoil
following the collapse of the Soviet Union and for China,
Tiananmen led to international isolation from 1989.
There had also been a constructive process of Sino-Soviet
normalization underway since the mid-1980s which lead-
ers in both capitals wished to see continue. Several agree-
ments and joint statements were thus made during the
1990s to early 2000s to first guarantee and stabilize bilat-
eral relations in a period of uncertainty, and then slowly
to establish firm foundations and principles to move the
relationship forward. Important milestones in this regard
where the “Strategic Partnership” agreement in 1996, the
2001 “Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Coop-
eration” and the 2010 “Comprehensive Strategic Partner-
ship” agreement. From the early 1990s and up to now,
China and Russia have thus not only formalized and in-
creasingly institutionalized their bilateral relations, but
also incrementally improved cooperation in areas rang-
ing from trade and economics, border relations, and
military, regional and international cooperation.
Inherent Bilateral Factors
While the “U.S factor” surely has been a significant
driver for improved China-Russia relations, an often
overlooked aspect is the inherent value both Beijing
and Moscow see in improving bilateral relations per se.
There are mainly three significant dimensions in this
regard. The first revolves around the weight of history
and ideology in Sino-Russian relations. The long histo-
ry between China and Russia has often been troubled
and deep-rooted mistrust has long characterized the
relationship. During the Cold War, the relationship
seemed to change every decade; going from formal
alliance in the 1950s, to a split in diplomatic relations
in the 1960s and border war in 1969, then to normali-
zation of relations from the start of the mid-1980s to
the current state of strategic partnership. Inflamed ide-
ological confrontation over which country was to lead
world communism was also prevalent. In order to not
repeat the troubled past, leaders on both sides are
committed to prevent ideology and historical memo-
ries to affect their relationship. Beijing and Moscow
often state the lack of ideological tension in current
relations as an important achievement when compared
to the past.
The second factor is geographical proximity. China
and Russia are neighboring great powers and share a
4 300 kilometer long border. For both China and Rus-
sia, upholding a stable border to guarantee and main-
tain a secure external environment is of outmost im-
portance. The Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s and the
subsequent border war in 1969 turned the Sino-Soviet
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 16
border into the most militarized border in the
1970s and 1980s. Not until the normalization
process was initiated in the mid-1980s, which also
included resolving the border conflict and fol-
lowed by a series of border agreements through-
out the 1990s, did the border issue finally come to
an end in 2004. By resolving the border issue the
necessary foundation was laid to move political
relations forward. Moreover, it also allowed Chi-
na and Russia to reallocate resources and attention
elsewhere, where the challenges were more
pressing: in East Asia and South East Asia for Chi-
na, and in the post-Soviet sphere for Russia.
The third factor relates to domestic moderni-
zation and economic development. China and
Russia are currently undergoing major domestic
transformations where both countries play a tangi-
ble material role for each other. For China, Russia
offers an important source for its growing demand
for oil and natural gas imports to fuel its contin-
ued economic development. There is already a
major oil pipeline in place, the Eastern Siberia-
Pacific Ocean (ESPO), which supplies China with
15 million tons of oil annually, and the above
mentioned natural gas deals supplement this
growing area of energy trade. There has also been
a beneficial military-technical cooperation for a
long time. China, still subjected to boycotts from
Western arms providers has turned to Russia for
its military modernization. And Russia, in need of
capital, especially in the financially troubled
1990s, has seen China as an important buyer. Ac-
cording to a SIPRI report, between 1991 and
2010, up to 90% of China’s conventional weapons
where supplied by Russia. Critics have often
pointed out that Russia has withheld much of its
most sophisticated weapons and instead sold these to
India. True as this might be, there is no doubt that
Russia’s arms sales to China have been of significant
importance for China’s military modernization pro-
gram. And as pointed out above, there are signs that
Russia is now willing to sell more advanced weaponry
to China.
A Formal Alliance In The Making?
A common question often raised is whether Bei-
jing and Moscow are in the making of forging a formal
military-political alliance, and if such an alliance could
pose a threat to the current international order as
such. While there are increased signs of more outright
rejection of Western values and ideas in both capitals,
an alliance directed against the West is not likely as
neither Beijing nor Moscow wish for this. Despite all
the frustration with the U.S dominance in world af-
fairs, both China and Russia are still dependent on
constructive and cooperative relations with the Unit-
ed States. Sino-U.S. bilateral trade which in 2013
stood at 521 billion USD, well exceeded Sino-Russian
trade. And although China is now Russia’s largest
trading partner, Russia is only China’s tenth largest.
China and the U.S. also need to have workable rela-
tions to handle many of today’s global issues such as
combating climate change. Moreover, a severe dis-
ruption in Sino-American relations would threaten
China’s need for a stable and secure external environ-
ment, the key precondition for China to continue to
modernize its economy. And although Putin nowa-
days seems willing to jeopardize links with the West,
Russia still needs to have cooperative ties with Europe
and the U.S and cannot in the long run risk to isolate
itself from the West. Finally, it should also be pointed
out that closer Sino-Russian ties do not imply that
there are no challenges or underlying tensions facing
Atlantic Voices, Volume 5, Issue 1 17
the relationship such as a deep-rooted lack of mu-
tual trust, increased competition in Central Asia
and different long-term perspectives on interna-
tional order. These factors can not only limit, but
also severely constrain the relationship in the fu-
ture.
Observers have also pondered over what im-
plications closer China-Russia ties could have for
Europe. One particular issue worth considering is
the closer energy relation between Beijing and
Moscow, which can have certain implications for
Europe-Russia relations. As noted above, the
Western sanctions following Russia’s annexation
of Crimea have not isolated Russia to the extent
intended, as Moscow turned to China instead. For
one, this has shown that Europe needs to diversify
its own gas and oil imports away from Russia for
such measures to have any effect. However, as
both Russia and Europe seek to diversify their
respective energy relations, both sides are locked
in an interdependent energy relation. Russia still
heavily needs the European market for the high
price it pays for Russian gas. And for Europe to
diversifying energy sources, it is easier said than
done. Moreover, the China-Russia May 2014 gas
deal mentioned above is set to supply China with
38 billion cubic meters, still considerably smaller
when compared to the 161.5 bcm that Russia sup-
plied Europe with in 2013. It is thus fair to say
that Russia’s improved energy relation with China
will give Moscow some needed maneuver and
bargaining power vis-à-vis Europe, but that it will
not replace Europe as its main energy partner
with China any time soon.
Christopher Weidacher Hsiung is a researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies and a PhD-candidate at the political science department at Oslo University, specializing in Chinese foreign poli-cy, Sino-Russian relations and China’s Arctic policy. Mr. Weidacher Hsiung has a master’s degree in politi-cal science from Lund University and has previously worked at the Swedish Embassy in Beijing, at the Swedish Trade Council in Taipei and at the European University Centre at Beijing University. In the spring of 2014, he was a visiting scholar at the School of In-ternational Studies at Beking University. Mr. Weidacher Hsiung has also conducted Chinese lan-guage studies at Lund University, Taiwan National University, Beijing Foreign Language University and at Wuhan Huazhong University.
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