Atlanta Fire Rescue Department James L. Day, Manager Assessment & Planning Section Matt Hinds-Aldrich Public Safety Headquarters Ebony Henderson 226 Peachtree Street, SW Lechi Bui Atlanta, GA 30303 Garrick Brim 404.546.7213 (office) Date: 25 July 2014 (Revised 20 August 2014)

From: Matt Hinds-Aldrich, Ph.D. Management Analyst – Sr.

To: Janet L. Ward, Public Information Officer Atlanta Fire Rescue Department

Cc: Kelvin J. Cochran, Fire Chief Wilmont Meadows, Deputy Fire Chief – Support Services Randall Slaughter, Deputy Fire Chief – Field Operations Michael Simmons, Deputy Fire Chief – Technical Services James Oliver, Captain – Fire Investigations

Re: Fire Incident Analysis for J.E. Boone Blvd and J.E. Lowery Blvd.

Executive Summary:

In response to a request from Janet Ward the AFRD Assessment and Planning Section [A & P] reviewed fire incident data for the area surrounding the intersection of Joseph E. Boone Blvd. NW and Joseph E. Lowery Blvd. NW to determine if there has been a spike in fires in this area. On 11 July 2014 (revised 24 July 2014) AFRD A & P produced a preliminary GIS map identifying the location and type of fire calls within the area for calendar year 2014 (see Figure 1). As a result of subsequent fires in this area the A & P was tasked with providing a more detailed analysis of fire incidents in this area over a longer period of time and relative to other parts of the city. A & P worked collaboratively with Fire Investigation Unit supervisor Capt. Oliver to query the identified calls within the area in question and look for any trends in the origin and cause determination and other potentially relevant factors that may be indicative of unlawful burning.

There were 27 fires in the area that were either currently undetermined or incendiary in the first half of the 2014 calendar year. Of these 2014 fires, 15 were in vacant structures 6 were in occupied structures, 6 fires were classified as trash or outside grass fires, and the final fire was a vehicle fire. The majority (16) of the fires occurred in the overnight hours between the hours of 21:00 (9pm) and 06:00 (6am) (See Table 1). There was an average of 3.6 fires per month for the first 6 months, however there has been a moderate increase in the month of July (8) (See Table 2). There appears to be some clustering along Joseph E. Lowery Blvd (see Figure 1); however, this could be based upon the distribution and type of buildings. Furthermore, Capt. Oliver advised that his team had not identified any obvious trends in the fires in that area based on their fire investigation experience. Based upon this quantitative and qualitative analysis the only noticeable trend is a moderate increase in fires in the first half of July and fires occurring in vacant structures. It is not clear if this is the beginning of a “spike” as it is ill-advised to make long-term trending projections based on a brief increase in calls. However, as an area of high call volume it is useful to periodically revisit the number and distribution of calls in this area to identify any emerging trends and fire prevention opportunities.

Detailed Analysis:

On the week of 7 July 2014 the AFRD Assessment & Planning Section was asked by Ms. Janet Ward to review the fire incident data for the area surrounding the intersection of Joseph E. Boone Blvd. NW and Joseph E. Lowery Blvd. NW to determine if there has been a spike in fires in this area. The area in question was bounded on the north by Donald Lee Hollowell Pkwy NW, on the east by Northside Drive NW, on the south by Fair St. SW and on the west by Chappell Rd. NW. This area is primarily covered by Engine Co. 16 located at 1048 Joseph E. Boone Blvd, NW.

The Assessment and Planning Section [A & P] queried the fire incident data for the area in question for the previous six months (01/01/2014 through 07/07/2014). All EMS and Alarm Activation calls were excluded from the dataset so as to only focus on actual fires. These fire locations were geocoded so these incidents could be analyzed geographically. On 11 July 2014 (revised 24 July 2014) the A & P Section produced a GIS map (See Figure 1 below) that included the AFRD fire station locations, major streets, Neighborhood Planning Units, City Council Districts, and the 2014 fire incidents within the focus area.

Figure 1: Station 1&16_FireIncident_Hotspot Analysis_24July2014

As a result of subsequent fires in this area, on 16 July 2014 the A & P was tasked with providing a more detailed analysis of fire incidents in this area over a longer period of time and relative to other parts of the city. The purpose of this more detailed analysis is to identify possible trends and commonalities among these data.

Figure 2: Fire Incidents 2012 – 2014 in Boone & Lowery Area

This area has consistently experienced a number of fires over the past few years. As Figure 2 above illustrates when looking at the past few years this area has experienced a number of fires annually. Moreover, the fire engine covering this area, Engine 16, is among the busiest engines in the city. The corresponding Reporting Districts (1603 and 1604) had the highest fire incident counts across the city during the last AFRD Risk Assessment (See Figure 3 below).

Figure 3: Fire Incident Counts by Reporting District

There were 27 fires in the area that were either currently undetermined or incendiary in the 2014 calendar year. Of these 2014 fires, 15 were in vacant structures 6 were in occupied structures, 6 fires were classified as trash or

outside grass fires, and the final fire was a vehicle fire. 12 of the 15 fires in vacant buildings were classified as “undetermined”. The majority (16) of the fires occurred in the overnight hours between the hours of 21:00 (9pm) and 06:00 (6am) (See Table 1). There was an average of 3.6 fires per month, however, there has been a moderate increase in the month of July (8) (See Table 2).

There does appear to be some clustering along Joseph E. Lowery Blvd (see Figure 1); however, this could be based upon the distribution and type of buildings. Looking at the historical distribution of fire incidents in the area (See Figure 2) the area along Joseph E. Lowery Blvd. has consistently had a high density of fire incidents.

Ongoing Fire Investigation Activity:

The AFRD Fire Investigation Unit completes fire origin and cause investigations for all serious fires and at other fire incidents at the request of the Officer in Charge (OIC) of the fire incident. A & P worked collaboratively with Fire Investigation Unit supervisor Capt. Oliver to query the identified calls within the area in question and identify trends in the origin and cause investigations. The Fire Investigation Unit also independently reviewed their case files for the focus area over the same time frame to identify any potentially previously overlooked patterns (See Table 3 and Table 4 in Appendix for a breakdown of FIU investigations in the focus area).

Many of the fires in this area are still under investigation as it often takes several weeks or even several months to complete the follow-up investigative analysis (lab results, interviews, and other investigative strategies) to meet industry best-practice standards outlined by NFPA 921. While some of the investigations are still being conducted, five of the fires identified as incendiary (arson) were solved with the arrest of an individual who has been jailed pending trial. There are active investigations on-going on the other fires to determine if they were the result of deliberate or negligent human action. Capt. Oliver advised that at present his team had not identified any obvious trends in the fires in that area based on their fire investigation and serial arson investigation experience.

Vacant Structures:

Vacant structures in the City of Atlanta remain a significant concern for the safety and welfare of citizens and firefighters alike. This problem is unfortunately not confined to the City of Atlanta. Nationwide, according to a National Fire Protection Association study, there is an average of 31,000 structure fires in vacant buildings

Time Number of Incidents

00:00 – 05:59 9 06:00 – 11:59 4 12:00 – 17:59 6 18:00 – 23:59 9

Table 1: Fires by Time of Day

Month Number of Incidents

January 3 February 6

March 2 April 3 May 5 June 3 July 8

Table 2: Fires by Month

resulting in an estimated $642 million in direct property damage per year. In Atlanta there were nearly 8,000 vacant residential structures identified in a recent Strategic Community Investment (SCI) report, these vacant structures account for 6.4% of residential structures in the city. The area covered by this analysis was classified as “Transitional” and “Vulnerable” in the SCI report and is surrounded by a number of “Declining” communities—these types of communities are notable for the high vacancy rates and other signs of economic divestment. The fires in these communities may be useful indices of the persistent fragile economic and social environment in these communities. Vacant and previously burned structures are a sign of blight that may invite further fires, squatters, and associated challenges.

To determine the impact of vacant buildings on the fire problem in this community the fires were identified by occupancy status, occupied or vacant, in Figure 4 below. When looking at structure fires alone (thereby excluding trash, grass, vehicle and other types of fires that do not involve structures) over 71% of the structure fires occurred in vacant structures—some of the fires occurred in previously burned but still standing vacant structures.

Figure 4: Occupancy Status of Fire Incident Locations

AFRD will continue to work collaboratively with its partners across COA to identify, demarcate, and address the vacant structures in this area and across the city. Vacant properties also pose a continued threat to firefighters as Firefighter Stephen Solomon’s tragic line of duty death and subsequent firefighter line of duty injuries remind

us, vacant structures are not only a visible blight affecting the communities vacant structures pose a significant threat to the people who occasionally reside in them and the firefighters who may be called to rescue them.

Figure 5: Atlanta Smoke Alarm Program [ASAP] 2014 YTD

Fire Prevention Activities:

The Atlanta Fire Rescue Department has a robust Community Risk Reduction program that works to prevent fires and reduce the severity of fires when they do occur. The strategies employed are multifaceted and dynamic. The Fire Inspections section works with agency partners across the COA to identify and address fire code compliance concerns in commercial, multi-family residential and other high-risk occupancies across the city. The Community Affairs section conducts a number of public fire education programs across the city, particularly targeting identified high-risk populations, namely school age children, older adults, and people living with various disabilities. The Community Affairs section has actively reached out to the most vulnerable members of our community through the Atlanta Smoke Alarm Program [ASAP] and multi-agency “Community Blitzes” that focus on safety and quality-of-life concerns in identified high-risk and disadvantaged neighborhoods. [See Figure 5 above] The ASAP program also specifically targets neighborhoods that have had recent fires to ensure that the neighbors who have witnessed the devastation of fires are secure in their home and have working smoke alarms fitted.

Conclusions:

The area surrounding Joseph E. Boone Blvd. and Joseph E. Lowery Blvd. has had a number of fire incidents but this is similar to other areas spread across southwest Atlanta. This area also has a large number of vacant properties and other signs of divestment, as identified in a recent SCI report. Many of the fires in this area occurred in and around vacant properties. The vacant properties present an established risk to firefighters and the wider public. AFRD will continue to work with its partners to identify and address these properties across the city. AFRD has an active community risk reduction program to install smoke alarms in the highest risk and most disadvantaged communities.

The AFRD Fire Investigation Unit has been actively investigating the origin and cause of fires within the area. Moreover, with the concern about a potential spike in incidents the fire investigation supervisor reviewed the case files for fires occurring within the area over the past year to identify any potentially missed patterns. Capt. Oliver advised that an individual was arrested and is currently jailed awaiting trial for setting five fires as the result of an apparent domestic dispute. The fire investigators are actively working several other cases in that area but these do not appear to be related.

After analyzing the various qualitative and quantitative data available, the AFRD Assessment and Planning Section was not able to identify any discernable trends of potential human involvement in the fire incidents in the area surrounding Joseph E. Boone Blvd. and Joseph E. Lowery Blvd. (other than the arson arrest noted by the Fire Investigation Unit). The area in question has a consistently high fire call volume. Based upon this quantitative and qualitative analysis there has been a small increase in the number of fires in the month of July; however, it is not clear if this represents a spike. Moreover, it is ill-advised to make long-term trending projections based on a brief increase in calls. As an area of high call volume it is useful to periodically revisit the number and distribution of calls in this area to identify any emerging trends and fire prevention opportunities.

Appendix:

Structure Fires Investigated By Fire Investigation Unit Near Boone and Lowery 2014

Date Address Cause Vacant or Occupied

1/7/14 575 J.P. Brawley Undetermined O

2/11/14 888 T.P. Burruss Incendiary O

2/21/14 888 T.P. Burruss Incendiary O

2/21/14 885 T.P. Burruss Incendiary V

2/21/14 1301 J. E. Boone Incendiary V

2/22/14 57 J.E. Lowery Incendiary O

4/6/14 525 Sunset Ave Undetermined V

6/5/14 946 Division St Undetermined V

6/29/14 900 J.E. Boone Undetermined O

7/5/14 1054 Mayson Turner Undetermined V

7/7/14 217 J.E. Lowery Undetermined V

7/8/14 704 J.E. Boone Undetermined V

7/9/14 247 J.E. Lowery Undetermined V

7/14/14 869 Thurmond St Undetermined V

7/17/14 Holly St @ J.E. Boone Undetermined V

7/17/14 716 Jett St Undetermined O

Table 3: Fires investigated by the AFRD Fire Investigation Unit 2014

Structure Fires Investigated By Fire Investigation Unit Near Boone and Lowery 2013

Date Address Cause Vacant or Occupied

1/4/13 433 J.P. Brawley Incendiary V

1/21/13 84 Stafford St Undetermined V

2/3/13 1319 Mayson Turner Undetermined O

2/4/13 839 J.E. Boone Incendiary V

2/6/13 1157 J.E. Boone Incendiary V

2/16/13 816 Thurmond St Undetermined V

2/17/13 1003 Ashby Terr. Incendiary V

2/18/13 1063 Ashby Grove Undetermined V

3/3/13 421 Griffin St Undetermined V

4/15/13 1155 J.E. Boone Undetermined V

5/3/14 527 Griffin Undetermined V

5/4/13 216 J.P. Brawley Incendiary V

5/15/13 Paynes & J.E. Boone Undetermined V

5/17/14 887 Thurmond St Incendiary V

5/18/14 2097 J.E. Boone Incendiary O

5/29/13 602 Paynes Ave Undetermined V

9/3/13 467 Lindsay St Undetermined V

10/26/13 280 J.P. Brawley Undetermined V

10/28/13 254 J.P. Brawley Undetermined V

12/13/13 614 J.E. Lowery Undetermined V

Table 4: Fires investigated by the AFRD Fire Investigation Unit 2013