Ateneo Alumni 11-24-18ateneo.edu/sites/default/files/attached-files/Cielito...Underemployment (%)...
Transcript of Ateneo Alumni 11-24-18ateneo.edu/sites/default/files/attached-files/Cielito...Underemployment (%)...
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Presentation for Eagle Watch IAteneo Rockwell Campus, Makati City
31 January 2019
Sustaining Steam:
The DutertenomicsChallenge
Cielito F. Habito
Professor of EconomicsAteneo de Manila University
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Overview1. The year that was: worsening trends
• PiTiK update• A closer look
2. The year ahead: more of the same?
• Inflation, Jobs and Growth Outlook
3. Moving forward: Tailwinds & headwinds
• Strengths and opportunities• Weaknesses and threats
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1. The Year That WasSpeeding prices, slowing growth
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‘PiTiK’ Update, 2018Now More Blue than Green
Presyo: Inflation now on a decline – 5.1% in Dec after hitting 6.7%
Trabaho: 826,000 new jobs in 2018; unemployment down – 5.3% FY average vs. 5.7% in 2017
Kita: GDP growth slowed down, but still among world’s fastest – 6.2% full year 2018 vs. 6.7% in 2017
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-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
J08
MS J09
MS J10
MS J11
MS J12
MS J13
M S J14
MS J15
M S J16
M S J17
MS J18
MS
Inflation: Finally Slowing DownAfter almost year-long acceleration
9.3%
3.2%
3.8%4.4%
3.2% 2.9%4.2%
1.4%
1.8%
3.2%
5.2%
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3.43.8 4.3
4.5 4.6
5.2
5.7
6.46.7 6.7
6.0
5.1
2.53.1 3.1 3.2 2.9
2.5 2.4 2.63.0
3.13.0 2.9
0.9 0.70.5 0.5
0.00.6 0.5
0.9 0.9
0.3-0.2
-0.6
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
J F M A M J J A S O N
2018 (M-O-M)
2017 (Y-O-Y)
2018 (Y-O-Y)
…but had mostly been slowing in real time, until rice prices messed things up
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Jobs Creation: 2017 Decline ReversesBut slowed down thru 2018
EmploymentDataJan2018
Unemployment(%) 5.3
NetNewJobs('000) 2,408Agriculture 841Industry 719Services 847
Underemployment(%) 18.0
Apr2018
July2018
5.5 5.4
625 488-723 -737605 172742 1,053
17.0 17.2
Oct2018
Oct2017
2018 2017
5.1 5.0 5.3 5.7
-218 -134 826 -663-419 -1,428 -260 -803405 374 475 212-204 920 610 -72
13 15.9 16.4 16.1
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Income/Output Slows DownAgriculture lags behind
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Inflation is hurting the poor more…
• While overall inflation rate is 5.1%,
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages – 6.7%(Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco – 21.7%)
• Food takes a much higher share of poor families’ budgets
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…and the countryside more.
• Inflation rate in Metro Manila (NCR) – 4.8%
• Inflation rate outside NCR – 5.3%
• 70% of Filipino poor reside in the rural areas
Nov Dec Nov DecNov Dec
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Better Quality JobsWage employment is expanding
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Rising Entrepreneurship(Based on July Data)
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A New Growth Track
0 2 4 6 8
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2010
2011-2017
1.8
2.9
4.8
6.2
AverageGDPGrowthRate
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Industry: Now Fastest Growing Sector
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Manufacturing and Construction Drive Industry
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Manufacturing, 2018:
Winners• Petroleum/Fuel (22.1%)
• Non-met Minerals (14.4%)
• Paper/Paper Prods (13%)
• Rubber, Plastic Prods (11.7%)
• Radio/TV/Comm Eqpt (11.3%)
• Electrical Machinery
• Wood Etc Prods
• Fab. Metal Prods.
• Non-elec Machinery
• Office Equipment
• Publishing/Printing
Losers• Tobacco Mfg (-18.2%)• Textiles• Chemical Products• Basic Metal Prods• Wearing Apparel
• Furniture & Fixtures• Food Manufactures• Footwear/Leather• Misc Manufactures• Beverages (2.9%)• Transport Equipt (0.9%)
.
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Foreign Direct Investment:Sluggish Growth
Jan-Oct Inflows Up 1.8%
Significant Slowdown from 2017 Growth
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But Domestic Investment is Brisk
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1.8
-1.8
6.2
12.0
15.8
10.5
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
2010-2017
2004-2009
Source: PSA
Investment Spending: An 8-Year Roll
Private
Construction
Durable
Equipment
Fixed
Investment
Growth Rate (%)
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Agriculture in 2018Staples, Exportables Take a Beating
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Exports Had Been Dropping
Source: PSA
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-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NC
R
CA
R
I
II
III
IV-A
IV-B
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
XIII
AR
MM
All regions are contributing to growth
Mindanao regions are strong growth contributors
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Poverty had seen biggest drop in recent memory…
Source: PSA
26.626.3
25.2
21.6
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
2006 2009 2012 2015
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…but appears to have risen in the past year due to rice crisis
Source: PSA
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2. The Year AheadMore of the same?
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Short Term Outlook (2019)
Inflation Rate: 3-4% likely
Jobs: Employment Rate of 94.0-95.0% (Unemployment Rate 5.0-5.5%)
GDP Growth: 6.0-6.5% (election year); downside risks
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IMF World Economic Outlook Global economy is expected to slow down
in 2019 (3.5% GDP growth)
Graphic: IMF
PH will do even better at 6-7+%!
OECD now expects only 3.2%
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Managing Inflation
• Moderate our (self-fulfilling) expectations
• Adjust budgets toward less inflationary substitutes
• BSP: Monetary policy can only do so much against cost-push inflation
• Longer term: liberalize food trade, but give rice farmers more focused support (even cash)
• Exports need focused attention (bring P/$ down)
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Moving ForwardDraw on strengths and opportunities, overcome weaknesses and threats
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Highly adaptable and resilient
Relatively better educated (vs. other Asian peers)
Hardworking and diligent
Excellent personal hygiene
Extremely hospitable
Etc.
Our Greatest Strength:Human Resources
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PH Population Age Profile, 2050
Philippines
Demographic Sweet Spot
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Opportunities:ASEAN Economic Community
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ASEAN is now our largest trading partner.
Sources: PSA, BSP
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…However,
PH trade with ASEAN appears to have
leveled off
PH Trade growth in last 6 years has more
been with non-ASEAN Asian partners:
• Japan – PH exports grew 15.4% from 2010 to 2014; due to PJEPA (2008)
• China – PH exports to China grew 23% from 2010 to 2013; due to ASEAN-China FTA (2010)
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China Presence: Widely Felt in PH
PH-China bilateral trade grew 2.7% in 2015 ($45.6B) when China-ASEAN trade fell 1.7%
China’s growing presence in the PH consumer market is palpable (Novo, New Star, etc.)
FDI statistics show Chinese FDI insignificant, yet 27 Chinese mining firms are in PH
New relations unleashing new trade, tourism, investment, ODA
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China is coming – and coming big. We must plan for an economy closely linked to China (and beyond).
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China’s New Directions
• Growth has tempered at 6-7% range
• Saddled with overcapacity (steel, cement, solar panels, etc.)
• China’s Strategy:
– Redirect capital abroad
– Diffuse excess domestic industrial capacity
– Reap improved financial returns
– Build goodwill with neighbors, Europe, Africa
– Take the lead in higher level knowledge-based industries and renewable energy
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China’s Economic Trends Are Widely Felt
IMF: World economic growth to lose 1.5 percentage points if China stops growing
China economy slowdown is ‘exported’ to “resource economies” (Australia, Canada, Brazil, PH, Indonesia)
China needs to do something different, and do something fast…
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Belt & Road Initiative
Silk Road Economic Belt
Maritime Silk Road
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Belt & Road Initiative
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BRI: Scope & Coverage
Price tag: $2-3 Trillion (12x bigger than Europe’s Marshall Plan
Will encompass 4.4 billion people (2/3 of humanity)
Accounts for well over half of global GDP
Covers 75% of known energy reserves
Integrates Asia, Africa and Europe through closer diplomatic, commercial and financial cooperation
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Upgrading of Piraeus port (Greece)
Bullet train from Belgrade to Budapest
Network of rails, roads and pipelines from Central China stretching all the way to Belgium
8,000-mile cargo rail route between Yiwu and Madrid
$46 billion economic corridor (pipeline, rail, roads, bridges++) through Pakistan connecting NW China to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea
BRI: Some Elements (1)
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• High-speed rail system connecting China with Southeast Asia
• Series of transport grids consisting of railroads (2,233 km), bridges and paved highways (3,350 km) linking 54 African countries (>1,000 projects)
• Freight train from eastern China to Tehran, Iran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan takes 14 days, less than 1/3 the time if by sea
BRI: Some Elements (2)
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• Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ($100 Billion initial capital, with 57 members including PH)
• China’s $40 billion Silk Road Fund (to support private investments)
• BRICS’s New Development Bank ($100 B)
• Export-Import Bank of China ($80B loans in 2015)
• Singapore with China Construction Bank ($22B for BRI projects)
• International pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, private equity funds
BRI: Financing
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Opportunity:Move Even Beyond ASEAN
Shed defensive posture in favor of a proactive and aggressive one
Leverage AEC regional integration to address food security, advance strategic economic interests
Tap BRI opportunities via ASEAN business partnerships
Mango, coconut with Myanmar
JV in rice production, processing
Manufacturing (GVCs)
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Source of Data: BSP
Weakness:We trail even farther behind in exports…
Export Earnings, 2017 ($ Billion)
We’re now last, with a wider gap
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Weakness:We trail even farther behind in exports…
Source of Data: BSP
We’re now last, with a wider gap
Export Earnings, 2017 ($ Billion)
0
50
100
150
200
250
SIN MAL THA INO PHI VIE
230
141110
86
41 32
Exports ($M), 2005
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…and lag behind in FDI
Source of Data: BSP
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
SIN THA INO MAL VIE PHL
15.7
4.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.2
FDI Inflows, Q1-2018 ($ Billion)
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Our trade is in deep deficit amidst our neighbors’ surpluses.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
SIN MAL THA INO VIE PHI
45.5
22.713.9 11.8
2.7
-27.4
Trade Balance, 2017 ($ Billion)
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0
1
2
3
4
5
SIN THA MAL INO VIE PHI
0.2
1.31.8
3.33.8
4.8Inflation Rate, Q2-2018 (%)
We have the highest inflation among our peers (and pulling farther away)…
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…and the highest unemployment too.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
THA SIN VIE MAL INO PHI
1.2
2.2 2.2
3.4
5.6 5.7Unemployment
Rate, 2017 (%)
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The Peso has been “worst performing”…
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Trade Balance (Exports-Imports)Slipping Deeper In Deficit
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Threat:
OFW Remittances Slowing Down
7.26.3
7.47.2
4.0
5.04.3
2.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2011 2012201320142015201620172018
Growth Rate, %)
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Threat:Industry 4.0: The Age of Disruption
• Artificial intelligence threatens our best asset; BPOs days are numbered
• Average age of farmers now around 60 – need successor generation of food producers
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Momentum Breakers
Persistent Infra Shortcomings – Transport, Telecoms, Internet woes
Build, Build, Bust? – Shift away from PPP; implementation weaknesses at DPWH, DOTr
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Momentum Breakers
Persistent Infra Shortcomings – Transport, Telecoms, Internet woes
Build, Build, Bust? – Shift away from PPP; implementation weaknesses of DPWH, DOTr
2017 COA Reports:
• DPWH budget grew from P110.6 billion in 2011 to P650.9 billion in 2018
• Managed to spend only 34.1%of its budget allocation in 2017
• DOTr only disbursed P18 billion, or 25.6% of the total P71.2 billion
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Momentum Breakers
Persistent Infra Shortcomings – Transport, Telecoms, Internet woes
Build, Build, Bust? – Shift away from PPP; implementation weaknesses at DPWH, DOTr
Politics: Our Biggest Block –Rent-seeking politicians; populist but business unfriendly policies; shift to federalism
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Fact: One in every three (33.5%) Filipino children < 5 years old is stunted (hence will
never reach full brain and physical development potential)
Our Biggest Threat
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Formation of white matter in the
brain is severely restricted in
stunted young children
Stunting means lifelong damage.
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Restricted rice trade (NFA monopoly) in the name of rice self-sufficiency pushed domestic rice prices up to 2x world price
Rice takes 20-25% of daily budget of the poorest Filipinos; expensive rice leaves no money left for “ulam”
Opening rice trade (tariffication/removal of NFA monopoly & control) will lower prices closer to the world price, subject to tariff applied (35% for ASEAN)
Need to provide focused help for 2 million rice farmers without causing collateral damage on 101M (and 22M poor) consumers
Stunting is linked to our flawed age-old rice policy.
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Lowest average intelligence in ASEAN?
https://new-iq-test.com/iq-by-country/
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Philippines
Population Age Profiles, 2050
Stunted Generation
or Demographic Time Bomb?
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The compelling need:
Make food affordable, feed the young children