ATEM NSWACT Workshop 17 July 09
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Transcript of ATEM NSWACT Workshop 17 July 09
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Strategic Thinking: what it is and how to do it
Strategic Thinking and Planning for Tertiary Education
ATEM NSW/ACT
Maree Conway
July 2009
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1990-2004 (i) Faculty Assistant Registrar Business, (ii) Divisional Manager, Arts, Humanities & Soc. Sci. (iii) Divisional Manager, Policy and Planning, (iv) Director, Foresight and Planning, and (v) Director, Foresight, Planning and Review
1978-1980 casual jobs as a student, Graduate ClerkSchool of Humanities
1981-84 Student Records Officer,Footscray College of TAFE
1986-1989 Student Admin Services Officer at Chisholm Institute of Technology, then Student Administration Manager,Monash, Caulfield AND Secondment as School Executive Officer, School of Physics at La Trobe 1988
2005-2007 General Manager, Quality, Information and Planning
1984-1986 Volunteer at University YWCA, Berkeley
1980-1981•La Trobe AcademicBoard Secretariat•Government Information Unit,Commonwealth Govt
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2007….integrating long term thinking into strategy development, using futures approaches
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Reflective Practice
Leadership
Good Ancestory
Interior Exterior
Individual
Collective
Strategic Thinking
Integral Leadership Framework
Based on the work of Ken Wilber
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Strategic ThinkingGenerating Options
What might happen?
Strategic Decision MakingMaking choices
What will we do?
Strategic PlanningTaking Action
How will we do it?
Options
Decisions
Actions
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Long term
Uncertain
Divergent
Incomplete
Beyond linear
Disrupting alignment
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Short term
Logical
Convergent
Pragmatic
Deductive
Alignment
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• Integrating the future into your decision making processes today by thinking big, deep and long.
Strategic Thinking
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• Big – do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment, both local and global?
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• Deep – how deeply are we questioning our ways of operating?
• Do we operate from our interpretation of the past, or our anticipation of the future?
• Are our assumptions today valid into the future?
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• Long – how far into the future are we looking? Do we understand the shape of alternative futures for our organisation?
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Thinking Big: Thinking in Systems
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• Leaders need to learn to see the larger systems of which they are a part.
• Shifts focus from optimising their piece of the puzzle to building shared understanding and larger vision.
Thinking Big: Systems Thinking
Peter Senge, The Necessary Revolution, 2008
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• Forces your attention on:– the external environment to understand the
impact of change,– connections and interdependencies,– aligning internal capacity with reality of a
constantly changing external environment,– identifying strategy that will ensure viability of
your organisations into the future.
Thinking Big: Systems Thinking
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Thinking Deep
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• What might seem real to you probably won’t seem as real to the next person.– not right, not wrong, just is.
• How you filter information (your lens) to create meaning is critical to understand.
• Underpins our assumptions about what is real and what is not.
Worldview
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Our assumptions encase us in the past.
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Assumption 1: It’s impossible.
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Assumption 2: I’m too busy.
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Assumption 3: It’s irrelevant.
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You will know when to test assumptions when the pain of continuing with ‘business-as-usual’ is greater than the fear of challenging yourself and others.
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Thinking Long: Environmental Scanning
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• Creating graduates for jobs that don’t exist, using technology that hasn’t been invented, to solve problems that we don’t know about yet.
• Must understand the shape of this world to be able to lead towards it.
In education…
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OrganisationOrganisation
Global
Industry
Technology
Lifestyle
Values
Politics
Economy
Environment
Demographics &generational change
Learning
Educational Gaming
Funding
Engagement
Online
Sustainability
VocationalImperative
The External Environment
GlobalisationWildcard
Wildcard
Wildcard
Wildcard
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Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
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Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
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Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
And…don’t forget the wildcard…
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Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking…
Trends
Emerging Issues
The weird and unimaginable
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• Scan actively
• Scan in strange places
• Scan for diversity of perspectives (not right, not wrong, just is)
Scan: know earlier
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• Look for connections, collisions
and intersections.
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• Collective wisdom.
• Record and share scanning ‘hits.
• Gather regularly to explore.
• Get your whole organisation thinking.
• Do it often, not once.
Scan: know together
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• Strategic thinking is identifying, imagining and understanding possible and plausible future operating environments for your organisation…
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…and using that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential future options…
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…about how to position your organisation effectively in the external environment,
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…in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today.
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Putting it all together:What might be… and what can
we do about it today?
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There are no future facts
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Types of Futures
Time
Today
Possible
Plausible
Probable
Preferable
Scenario
“Wildcard”
Futures Cone developed by Clem Bezold
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• What will be the shape of the future?
• What will be important?
• What will be peripheral?
• What does it mean for us?
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• The future might be unknowable, but you can understand a lot about what will influence the future.
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The impact of global trends...
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…and of government policy
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Competing for talent
Skilling, re-skilling, up-skilling
Flexibility
Relationships
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http://darmano.typepad.com/logic_emotion/2007/08/are-you-a-synth.html
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Demographics
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Genetic Engineering
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Consumer Trends
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Global 2.0 is here…understanding and engaging with an array of cultures…
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Diversity of workforce and student population increasing
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...student choice and time, place and pace of learning
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…how will we learn?
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SNACK CULTURE
Deconstructing products - smaller, faster, cheaper
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Photo: http://www.cyberpunkreview.com
Is the singularity real?
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How will automation affect our work?
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3D PRINTING
Moving to personalised production www.ponoko.comwww.shapeways.com
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The way we do business is changing.
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…and we need to demonstrate our ‘green’ credentials
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Implications• Students – how will they learn, what will their
experience look like? What will they expect?• Staff – how will you work, what will a day look like
for you? What will you expect of your employer?• The organisation – how will it have changed?
How will it have stayed the same?• Learning – what will it mean (structure, delivery,
assessment, recognition)?• Industry – what will it look like? How will people
work? What skills might be needed?
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• Focus: critical issue/decision today• Scan: two trends likely to affect your decision into
the future (think uncertainty not predictability)• Interpret: think about how these trends might play
out over the next 10 years• Imagine: how your organisation look like in 10
years – image/metaphor/book or movie title• Decision: – implications/options for your decision
today. What will be the same, what might you do differently?
Your turn…
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• Beyond the short-term
• Beyond busy
• “We want to be proactive…”
• But, you can’t be proactive unless you have spent time thinking about how you might react to events that have not yet happened.
Why do it this way?
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Unless you take the time to think strategically, you will always be in crisis management mode and always putting out bushfires.
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Reactive Futures
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Proactive Futures
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Reactive Futures – assumes linear future
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Proactive futures – assumes uncertainty
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• Let’s think about how to focus our organisations on the future.
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Reactive Futures Proactive Futures
What has happened? What is happening?
What caused it to happen? What is driving the trends that will influence our future?
What are our alternative futures?
How do we respond? What ought we do today?
What would be the long term consequences of our actions today?
What will we do now? What will we do now?
After the event Anticipating the event
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• Mental filters (patterned responses)
• Overconfidence (far too certain)
• Penchant for confirming rather than disconfirming evidence (we miss things)
• Dislike for ambiguity (want certainty)
• Group think (Abilene effect)
Recognise the blinders
PJH Schoemaker and GS Day Driving through the Fog, Long Range Planning 37 (2003): 127-142
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• Moving beyond pattern response and habitual thinking that no longer works well when uncertainty is dominant.
• Re-training our brains to make new connections and generate new ideas.
• Moving our brains from automatic pilot to manual steering.
It’s about changing the way you think…
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We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.
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• What assumptions that underpin how you think about your work now will need to change?
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A Challenge: Beyond Busy
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• The pressures of his job drive the manager to be superficial in his actions - to overload himself with work, encourage interruption, respond quickly to every stimulus, seek the tangible and avoid the abstract, makes decisions in small increments, and do everything abruptly.
Henry Mintzberg The Manager’s Job: Folklore or Fact, HBR, 1975
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• “Managers who get caught in the trap of overwhelming demands become prisoners of routine. They do not have time to notice opportunities. Their habituated work prevents them from taking the first necessary step toward harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to dream an idea into existence and transforming it into a concrete existence.”
Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers Harness Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004
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The Result?
Our organisations will tend to be purposeless wastelands, populated by the perpetually busy and the inherently unhappy.
Stephen Johnson, What do you do for a living?, 2007
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• I’m too busy dealing with today to think about the future…
actually means…
• I can only think short term. I don’t have time to think strategically.
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• A futures thinking approach may mitigate against falling into the trap of being caught reacting to the day to day, where the urgent drives out the important, where the futures goes unexplored and the capacity to act, rather than the capacity to think and imagine, becomes the sole measure for leadership.
Brent Davies
Leading the Strategically Focused School: Success and Sustainability (2006)
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If you succumb to the busyness syndrome, this is how you approach the future.
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To think strategically, you have to move beyond busy.
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Characteristics of Strategic Thinkers
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Open mind…
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Systems thinker…
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Accept diversity…
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Think outside the box…
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Think outrageously at times…
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Curious…
Explore, learn, reflect
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Optimistic about creating the future…
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Challenge assumptions…
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Aware of own worldview…
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Are compassionate…
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…and generous
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…and, seek and foster collective wisdom
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Back to Work
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• Strategic thinking is thinking about the future.
• As leaders in organisations, your responsibility is to influence others to understand the imperative of the future.
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• That a sustainable way of life for us as individuals, for our organisations, our societies and our planet is possible only if we integrate the future into our decision making today.
The imperative of the future
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And, just how do I do this in real life?
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It’s a challenge!
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The gap between reactive and proactive strategy is bridged by making time for
strategic thinking.
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Individual
Foresight
unconscious
implicit
solitary
Strategic
Foresight
conscious
explicit
collective
Individuals recognise and build their foresight capacity
Individuals begin to talk about and use futures approaches in their work
Collective individual capacities generate organisational capacity (structures & processes)
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Leadership
Make a change in your routine when you go back to work.
Good Ancestory
Recognise the impact of decisions today for future
generations
Strategic Thinking
Whenever you have to make a decision, ask: “Am I
thinking, big, deep and long?”
Interior Exterior
Individual
Collective
Based on the work of Ken Wilber
Reflective Practice
Commit to building time to do this daily – stop doing
something else if you have to
YOU
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Leadership
Build a scanning system to inform decision making – and
pay attention to it
Good Ancestory
Create a futures focused decision making culture
Strategic Thinking
Have thinking workshops as well as planning workshops
Interior Exterior
Individual
Collective
Based on the work of Ken Wilber
Reflective Practice
Encourage and support an outward looking staff
YOU AS A LEADER
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Make space to think
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“Strategic thinking can be colloquially defined as "acting in the present with a clear sense of the future"- a sense of what the future environment might be, and a vision of what you want the future organization to be. No aspect of cultural change is more important than focusing organizational values and behavior on the future.”
http://horizon.unc.edu/projects/seminars/futurizing/focusing.html
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• Strategy framework defined by tomorrow’s strategic issues rather than today’s operations.
• Strategic thinking capabilities are widespread in the organisation (not just senior executives).
• Process for negotiating trade-offs is in place.• Performance review system focuses managers
on key strategic issues.• Reward system and values promote and support
the exercise of strategic thinking.
How do you know when?
Adapted from Thinking Strategically, McKinsey Quarterly, June 2000
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• The aim is to understand - as best we can - the long term context of our decisions today, so that we make those decisions as wise and as robust as is possible today.
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Maree ConwayThinking Futures
http://www.thinkingfutures.nethttp://futuresthink.blogspot.com
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