ASX Code: OZL Price: $10.31 12 Mth Target Price: …...Western Australia and includes the Nebo-Babel...

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Business Summary OZ Minerals Limited (OZL) is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. OZL owns and operates the Prominent copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold mines in South Australia. Prominent Hill Project: The project is located 650km NW of Adelaide and 130km SE of Coober Pedy, SA. The project comprises three main resources areas namely Ankata, Kalaya and Malu. The project is both an open pit and an underground mine. The mine contains Copper concentrate (containing gold and silver). The Ankata underground mine is expected to be operational till the year 2023. Till 30 September 2017 , the Prominent Hill operation produced 82,122 tonnes of copper and 87,535 ounces of gold. Carrapateena Project: The project is located 250km SE of Prominent Hill, 160km north of Port Augusta in SA. The project is on the eastern margin of the Gawler Craton, consisting of Iron Oxide Copper-Gold deposit. The project comprises of four exploration licences covering an area of 1,070sqkm. Construction of Carrapateena is underway and commissioning is scheduled for Q4 2019 after which the project will ramp up to steady state production. West Musgrave Project: The project is located in the Musgrave Province of Western Australia and includes the Nebo-Babel nickel-copper and Succoth copper deposits. OZ Minerals is hoping to establish the West Musgrave project as a scaleable, low cost, long life, open pit mining operation. In November 2017 OZ Minerals and Cassini announced that the West Musgrave project would progress to a Pre-Feasibility Study. Latest Research Good start to 2020 OZL announced March 2020 quarterly production of 20.2kt copper and 55.6koz gold at a C1 cash cost of US$0.09/lb (BPe 19.4kt Cu and 49.1koz Au at US$0.05/lb). Copper production was in-line with our forecast and gold ~13% ahead of our forecast. The March quarter saw the planned prioritisation of the processing of gold ore stockpiles at Prominent Hill, where C1 costs dropped to –US26.8c/lb on increased by-product credits. During the quarter OZL implemented a comprehensive response to the COVID-19 pandemic, enabling it to keep operating with no material production disruptions. OZL has, however, suspended non-critical exploration and development activities and lowered formal CY20 CAPEX guidance by ~$100-$120m. At end March OZL held cash of $61m, down from $134m at end December. During the quarter OZL drew down $150m from its revolving credit facility for a net debt position of $89m. It expects to be net cash positive by the end of the current quarter. For more information see research 23 Apr 2020. GICS - Materials OZ Minerals Limited ASX Code: OZL Price: $13.70 12 Mth Target Price: $10.58 Rating: Buy Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 14 August 2020 $4,448m 324.7m $14.39 $5.83 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Buy $10.58 -22.8% 2.3% -20.5% Investment Fundamentals FYE 31 Dec 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Profit $m 163.9 105.2 261.4 239.3 Profit (norm)* $m 163.9 105.2 261.4 239.3 EPS* ¢ 50.7 32.3 80.3 73.5 EPS Growth % -29.1 -36.2 148.4 -8.4 P/E* x 27.0 42.4 17.1 18.6 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 23.0 12.0 22.0 22.0 Yield % 1.7 0.9 1.6 1.6 Franking % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Bell Potter estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Transcript of ASX Code: OZL Price: $10.31 12 Mth Target Price: …...Western Australia and includes the Nebo-Babel...

Page 1: ASX Code: OZL Price: $10.31 12 Mth Target Price: …...Western Australia and includes the Nebo-Babel nickel-copper and Succoth copper deposits. OZ Minerals is hoping to establish the

Business SummaryOZ Minerals Limited (OZL) is an Australian based mining company with afocus on copper. OZL owns and operates the Prominent copper-gold mineand the Carrapateena copper-gold mines in South Australia.

Prominent Hill Project: The project is located 650km NW of Adelaide and130km SE of Coober Pedy, SA. The project comprises three main resourcesareas namely Ankata, Kalaya and Malu. The project is both an open pit andan underground mine. The mine contains Copper concentrate (containinggold and silver). The Ankata underground mine is expected to be operationaltill the year 2023. Till 30 September 2017 , the Prominent Hill operationproduced 82,122 tonnes of copper and 87,535 ounces of gold.

Carrapateena Project: The project is located 250km SE of Prominent Hill,160km north of Port Augusta in SA. The project is on the eastern margin ofthe Gawler Craton, consisting of Iron Oxide Copper-Gold deposit. The projectcomprises of four exploration licences covering an area of 1,070sqkm.Construction of Carrapateena is underway and commissioning is scheduledfor Q4 2019 after which the project will ramp up to steady state production.

West Musgrave Project: The project is located in the Musgrave Province ofWestern Australia and includes the Nebo-Babel nickel-copper and Succothcopper deposits. OZ Minerals is hoping to establish the West Musgraveproject as a scaleable, low cost, long life, open pit mining operation. InNovember 2017 OZ Minerals and Cassini announced that the WestMusgrave project would progress to a Pre-Feasibility Study.

Latest ResearchGood start to 2020

OZL announced March 2020 quarterly production of 20.2kt copper and55.6koz gold at a C1 cash cost of US$0.09/lb (BPe 19.4kt Cu and 49.1kozAu at US$0.05/lb). Copper production was in-line with our forecast andgold ~13% ahead of our forecast. The March quarter saw the plannedprioritisation of the processing of gold ore stockpiles at Prominent Hill,where C1 costs dropped to –US26.8c/lb on increased by-product credits.During the quarter OZL implemented a comprehensive response to theCOVID-19 pandemic, enabling it to keep operating with no materialproduction

disruptions. OZL has, however, suspended non-critical exploration anddevelopment activities and lowered formal CY20 CAPEX guidance by~$100-$120m. At end March OZL held cash of $61m, down from $134m atend December. During the quarter OZL drew down $150m from itsrevolving credit facility for a net debt position of $89m. It expects to be netcash positive by the end of the current quarter.

For more information see research 23 Apr 2020.

GICS - Materials

OZ Minerals Limited

ASX Code: OZL Price: $13.70 12 Mth Target Price: $10.58 Rating: Buy

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

14 August 2020$4,448m324.7m$14.39$5.83

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Buy$10.58-22.8%2.3%-20.5%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 31 Dec 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Profit $m 163.9 105.2 261.4 239.3Profit (norm)* $m 163.9 105.2 261.4 239.3

EPS* ¢ 50.7 32.3 80.3 73.5EPS Growth % -29.1 -36.2 148.4 -8.4P/E* x 27.0 42.4 17.1 18.6P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 23.0 12.0 22.0 22.0Yield % 1.7 0.9 1.6 1.6Franking % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Bell Potter estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Page 2: ASX Code: OZL Price: $10.31 12 Mth Target Price: …...Western Australia and includes the Nebo-Babel nickel-copper and Succoth copper deposits. OZ Minerals is hoping to establish the

Profit & Loss ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Sales Revenue 879 823 1,023 1,117 1,093Total Revenue ex. Int. 998 1,060 1,218 1,127 1,108EBITDA 480 489 644 460 348Depreciation & Amort. -285 -362 -324 -148 -115Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 194 127 321 312 234Net Interest 3 9 9 7 -5Profit Before Tax 197 136 329 319 229Income Tax -60 -28 -98 -90 -65Outside Equity Int. -- -- -- -- --Profit after Tax 138 108 231 228 164Significant Items after Tax -8 -- -- -6 --Reported Profit after Tax 130 108 231 222 164Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Receipts from Customers 930 874 1,000 1,204 1,140Funds from Operations 467 344 432 654 647Net Operating Cashflow 430 324 343 450 511Capex -251 -125 -197 -426 -764Acquisitions & Investments -- -- -- -183 --Sale of Invest. & Subsid. 126 3 -- -- --Net Investing Cashflow -78 -122 -197 -610 -764Proceeds from Issues -- -- -- -- --Dividends Paid -18 -61 -60 -68 -74Net Financing Cashflow -21 -98 -67 -68 -122Net Increase Cash 331 104 79 -228 -375Cash at Beginning 218 552 656 729 505Exchange Rate Adjust. 3 -1 -5 3 4Cash at End 552 656 729 505 134

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 54.53 59.39 62.97 41.20 31.88EBIT Margin % 22.11 15.46 31.35 27.92 21.37Net Profit Margin % 15.67 13.10 22.59 20.44 15.00Return on Equity % 5.88 4.58 9.18 7.83 5.50Return on Assets % 5.50 4.23 8.27 6.73 4.48

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % -23.57 -27.85 -28.99 -17.33 1.67Interest Cover x -67.03 -14.13 -36.86 -45.20 47.65

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersBlackRock Group 7.8%Dimensional Entities 6.0%The Vanguard Group,Inc 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Cash & Equivalent 552 656 729 505 134Receivables 99 77 152 93 106Inventories 143 197 262 277 238Other Current Assets 5 14 4 29 8Current Assets 799 944 1,148 904 486Prop. Plant & Equipment 1,262 991 1,176 2,078 2,872Intangibles 252 -- -- -- --Other Non-Current Assets 40 42 4 29 8Non-Current Assets 1,767 1,686 1,678 2,539 3,328Total Assets 2,566 2,631 2,826 3,443 3,814Interest Bearing Debt -- -- -- -- 184Other Liabilities 222 276 310 528 650Total Liabilities 222 276 310 528 834Net Assets 2,344 2,354 2,516 2,915 2,980Share Capital 2,058 2,027 2,028 2,279 2,280Reserves -- 4 -4 -2 -22Retained Earnings 286 324 492 638 721Outside Equity Int. -- -- -- -- --Total Shareholders Equity 2,344 2,354 2,516 2,915 2,980

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Ms Michelle Pole

Directors

Mr Richard Phillip Seville(Non-Executive Director)Mr Charlie Sartain(Non-Executive Director)Mr Peter Wasow(Non-Executive Director)Ms Rebecca Joy McGrath(Non-Executive Director,Non-ExecutiveChairman)Ms Tonianne Dwyer(Non-Executive Director)Mr Andrew Cole(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

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OZ Minerals Limited

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