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The current state of agricultural R&D investment and capacity: A valuable benchmark to gauge future S3A progress
Gert-Jan Stads and Nienke BeintemaInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Presentation at the Science Agenda parallel session at the 10th CAADP PPDurban | March 19, 2014
S3A Context
• “S3A is based on the belief that science is too important to be continually outsourced to international investors”
• “African countries must make domestic investments in science for agriculture”
• “Every country requires a basic science capacity as an essential part of an agricultural led social and economic transformation”
Knowledge on the current status of agricultural R&D investment and capacity is needed to monitor S3A progress in the future
Good news: public spending and capacity increased
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Total number of FTE researchers
Mill
ion
2005
PPP
dol
lars
Spending
Researchers
2000 2011 Increase
Spending (million PPP$)
1,208 1,692 +40%
Researchers (FTEs)
9,470 14,230 +50%
2 9 21 27 41 43 45 63 66 82 89 98104112115117123124131132134151156162177180193218233274307314354
424607
746815
9391151
18772688
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Seyc
helle
sGu
inea
-Biss
auCa
pe V
erde
Swaz
iland
Leso
tho
Gabo
nLib
eria
Mau
ritan
iaGa
mbi
a, T
heSi
erra
Leon
eNa
mib
iaNi
ger
Cong
o, R
ep.
Sene
gal
Togo
Eritr
eaCh
adBo
tsw
ana
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Buru
ndi
Cent
ral A
frica
n…M
auriti
usBe
nin
Mal
awi
Zim
babw
eRw
anda
Mad
agas
car
Burk
ina
Faso
Zam
bia
Guin
eaM
ali
Moz
ambi
que
Ugan
daCo
ngo,
Dem
. Rep
.Gh
ana
Sout
h Af
rica
Tanz
ania
Suda
nKe
nya
Ethi
opia
Nige
ria
Tota
l FTE
rese
arch
ers
Big NARS, small NARS
2011 (40-country sample)
< 100 FTEs: 12 countries > 500 FTEs: 7 countries
Increase in researcher quantity, not quality
• Recent capacity growth mostly driven by increasing numbers of MSc and BSc researchers
• 10 out of 24 countries reported declines in the absolute number of PhD holders during 2008–2011
26-country sample
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tota
l FTE
rese
arch
ers
PhD MSc BSc
MSc holders
PhD holders
BSc holders
PhDs approaching retirement age in many countries
• In 17 of 36 countries, more than half the PhD holders are older than 50; problem more pronounced in West Africa
• In contrast, growing numbers of young scientists elsewhere
• Urgent need to recruit and train next generation of scientists
2011 (36-country sample)
Cape
Ver
de (1
9)
Gui
neaB
issa
u (0
)
Buru
ndi (
24)
Mau
ritan
ia (1
6)
Moz
ambi
que
(26)
Rwan
da (2
2)
Zim
babw
e (2
2)
Burk
ina
Faso
(105
)
Mal
awi (
32)
Gab
on (9
)
Sene
gal (
79)
Ethi
opia
(170
)
Uga
nda
(110
)
Mau
ritius
(21)
Bots
wan
a (2
4)
Gam
bia(
6)
Suda
n (3
30)
Tanz
ania
(164
)
CAR
(2)
Nig
eria
-NA
RIs
(287
)
Keny
a (3
68)
Chad
(21)
Beni
n (8
4)
Gha
na (2
28)
Nam
ibia
(12)
Cong
o D
R (5
6)
Mad
agas
car (
78)
Togo
(36)
Libe
ria (5
)
Cong
oRep
(33)
Sier
raLe
one
(14)
Eritr
ea (1
3)
Swaz
iland
(12)
Leso
tho
(4)
Mal
i (10
0)
Gui
nea
(42)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Shar
e of
PH
D h
olde
rs (%
)
0.20.30.71.21.82.12.74.34.74.85.15.55.75.76.67.67.78.48.99.6
13.016.217.520.724.825.426.026.227.2
33.634.335.937.843.1
68.169.6
81.4106.8
188.1237.2
393.9
0
100
200
300
400
Guin
ea-B
issau
Seyc
helle
sGa
bon
Eritr
eaLe
soth
oCa
pe V
erde
Cent
ral A
frica
n…Gu
inea
Swaz
iland
Liber
iaCo
ngo,
Rep
.Ga
mbi
a, T
heSie
rra
Leon
eZi
mba
bwe
Nige
rTo
goM
adag
asca
rBu
rund
iM
aurit
ania
Zam
bia
Chad
Cong
o, D
em. R
ep.
Bots
wan
aM
ozam
biqu
eSe
nega
lBu
rkin
a Fa
soM
auriti
usBe
nin
Rwan
da Mal
iM
alaw
iSu
dan
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Nam
ibia
Ghan
aEt
hiop
iaTa
nzan
iaUg
anda
Keny
aSo
uth
Afric
aNi
geria
Milli
on 2
005
PPP
dolla
rsA few big spenders, many small ones
2011 (40-country sample)
< 10 million PPP $: 20 countries > 100 million PPP $: 4 countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
Gui
nea-
Biss
auG
abon CA
RCo
ngo,
DR
Nig
erM
adag
asca
rG
uine
aSi
erra
Leo
neEt
hiop
iaSu
dan
Zam
bia
Eritr
eaN
iger
iaM
ozam
biqu
eBu
rkin
a Fa
soTo
goLi
beria
Côte
d'Iv
oire
Tanz
ania
Buru
ndi
Mal
iBe
nin
Leso
tho
Rwan
daG
hana
Mau
ritan
iaSe
nega
lCh
adCo
ngo,
Rep
.G
ambi
a, T
heM
alaw
iCa
pe V
erde
Keny
aU
gand
aSw
azila
ndSo
uth
Afric
aBo
tsw
ana
Nam
ibia
Mau
ritius
Aver
age
Shar
e (%
)
Most countries fail to meet investment targets
Target (UN/NEPAD): Allocation of at least 1% of GDP to R&D
• On average, 0.51% of AgGDP in SSA was spent on public agricultural R&D in 2011
• SSA’s intensity ratio has declined since 2008 due to relatively stronger growth in AgGDP than in agricultural R&D spending
• Caution when analyzing intensity ratios!
2011
Spending growth: not everywhere and not fast enough
Target (UN expert group): 5% annual spending growth over the next decade
• 2000–2011 marked by spending decline or stagnation in about half of the 30 countries with time series data
• Since 2008, however, more and more countries have experienced positive growth.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Eritr
ea
Gui
nea
Gab
on
Togo
Zam
bia
Gam
bia,
The
Sout
h Af
rica
Burk
ina
Faso
Côte
d'Iv
oire
Mad
agas
car
Ethi
opia
Mau
ritius
Mal
i
Sene
gal
Bots
wan
a
Mau
ritan
ia
Mal
awi
Nam
ibia
Keny
a
Suda
n
Gha
na
Nig
eria
Buru
ndi
Beni
n
Cong
o, R
ep.
Uga
nda
Tanz
ania
Aver
age
Annu
al g
row
th ra
te (%
)
Main drivers of region-wide growth in spending, 2000–2011
+2.7%
Governments fund salaries, donors the rest
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ghana
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Uganda
Mali
Burkina Faso
SalariesOperating and program costsCapital investments
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ghana
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Uganda
Mali
Burkina Faso
GovernmentDonors and development banksCommodity leviesOwn resourcesOther
Cost categories Funding sources
2011
Donors are a major source of funding volatility
• Annual agricultural R&D spending in SSA has been considerably more volatile than in other developing regions
• Donor/development bank funding is generally short-term and ad-hoc (and 3 times more volatile than government funding)
• Therefore, volatility is more pronounced in donor-dependent low-income countries
Tanzania
Burkina Faso
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
20
40
60
80
100
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
0
10
20
30
40
Concluding remarks
• Encouraging signs that many African countries are moving in the right direction (albeit slowly):– Increasing government and donor funding– Recruitment bans being lifted; improved salaries and
benefit packages; retirement age increases– Importance of agricultural R&D is increasingly recognized
(S3A, CAADP, G8, G20, UN post-2015 Development Agenda, WAAPP/EAAPP)
• Nonetheless, much more is needed to tackle the various challenges facing African agricultural R&D
• ASTI indicators provide a valuable benchmark for monitoring future S3A progress
Thank you