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Group Photo at ECCS!11 [Photo by Claudia Sinatra]

Reporting the ECCS’11 Satellite Meetings

elcome to the October 2011 edition of the

ASSYST/CSS newsletter. After our community

annual meeting, this year at the ECCS!11 held

in Vienna (http://eccs2011.eu), a very successful

conference with almost 700 (!) participants, we report the

discussions occurred in the many different ECCS!11

Satellite Meetings. In this number you will find the

conclusions of “EPNACS - - Emergent Properties in

Natural and Artificial Complex Systems”, “Social Energy:

a useful concept for analyzing complex social systems?”,

“Policy Modelling”, “Urban social dynamics: segregation

and criminality”, “Frontiers in the Theory of Evolution”,

and “XNet - Complexity & Networks”. But this is not all.

Other very interesting ECCS!11 Satellite Meetings will be

reported on the next issue of the newsletter, so stay

attentive! For now we also present the essential “Reading

snippets”, forthcoming conferences and workshops, jobs

and other information regarding the complex systems research. Enjoy!

-- The ASSYST Team

W

Number 23, October 2011 | www.assystcomplexity.eu | www.cssociety.org

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EPNACS - Emergent Properties in Natural and Artificial Complex Systems

by Arnaud Banos

he aim of this 4th event from EPNACS series

(http://litis.univ-lehavre.fr/~bertelle/epnacs2011/),

organised as a satellite meeting of ECCS 2011, was

to study emergent properties arising in natural and

artificial dynamic networks. The meeting was concerned

with multidisciplinary approaches aimed at exploring,

visualizing, modeling and simulating large scale dynamic

networks, in order to detect their emergent communities,

to analyse self-organizing processes and to characterize

their evolution. Linking the morpho-dynamics of complex

networks with the dynamic processes they convey was,

for example, one of the target questions this meeting

addressed. Another key issue concerned the identification

of general properties of these dynamic complex networks

in various natural and artificial systems (urban networks, ecosystems, neuronal networks, etc).

This satellite meeting was composed of 4 sessions plus a

tutorial. The first session was dedicated to dynamical

systems and chaos, the second one to dynamic networks

and graphs, while the third session focused on social

systems and the fourth one on specific methods to

analyse complex systems. Finally, the tutorial introduced

GraphStream, a Java Library for Dynamical Complex

Networks designed and maintained in Le Havre University

(http://graphstream-project.org/). Full proceedings of this

EPNACS conference are available from http://assystcomplexity.eu/short/?id=136

Policy Modelling

by Petra Ahrweiler

his satellite workshop was about policy modelling

with a focus on innovation policy. Policy modelling

means to identify areas, which need intervention, to

specify the desired state of the target system, to find the

regulating mechanisms, policy formation and

implementation, and to control and evaluate the

robustness of interventions. The methodological difficulty

hereby is to bridge the gap between policy practice often

expressed in qualitative and narrative terms and the

scientific realm of formal models. Furthermore,

policymaking in complex social systems is no clear-cut

cause-effect process but characterised by contingency

and uncertainty. To take into account technological,

social, economic, political, cultural, ecological and other

relevant parameters, policy modelling has to be enhanced

and supported by new ICT-oriented research initiatives.

Reviewing the current state-of-the-art of policy context

analysis such as forecasting, foresight, backcasting,

impact assessment, scenarios, early warning systems,

and technology roadmapping, the need for policy

intelligence dealing with complexity becomes more and more obvious.

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Both days were opened by invited keynote speakers. On

the first day, John Casti, showed in his keynote

“Computational modelling and the complexity of policy”

how what he termed complexity overload acts as the root

cause of extreme events in all social environments, how

social mood theory and agent-based modelling can help

us develop tools to anticipate such events, and how this

approach worked in case studies for the Finnish and

Scottish policy sponsors within the Game Changers

project of the IIASA Xevents activity. This opened the floor

for a day on the relation of complexity-based policy

domains and ICT. We had presentations reporting

concrete experiences with computational requirements

and tools for policy modelling (Jose " Javier Alba Sa "nchez,

Luca Minghini and Gianluca Misuraca), and more

exploratory studies about the possibility to create a

general computational framework which uses evidence-

based policy making to encapsulate socio-economic

principles for creating enduring institutions for smart

infrastructure management (Jeremy Pitt). Existing

simulation models of technological evolution, knowledge

dynamics and the emergence of innovation networks were

introduced and discussed for validation potential to be

relevant or stakeholders (Christopher Watts). There has

been methodological progress in interpreting models!

processes and results, but relevance is still largely

theoretical and reliability of validation procedures is

incipient (Pablo Lucas). Case studies using specific

models for innovation policy modelling were then

presented such as two studies adapting and developing

the SKIN model (Simulating Knowledge Dynamics in

Innovation Networks; http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/SKIN/),

a study for DG INFSO on ex-ante evaluation of the FP7

successor programme Horizon 2020 (Petra Ahrweiler,

Michel Schilperoord, Nigel Gilbert and Andreas Pyka), and

a simulation of the Vienna biotech cluster and its socio-

economic dynamics, with a special focus on the influence

of public research funding on its innovation performance

(Manuela Korber and Manfred Paier). To assist

policymakers with simulation results (e.g. Ozge Kalkan on

waste resources markets), specific attention was drawn to modelling decision making processes (Diane Payne).

In Policy Modelling there is an uneasy relationship

between two different worlds: the "hard" "scientific" world

of measurement, data, and analytic/computer modelling,

mostly occupied by academics who see themselves as

aiming for the truth behind complex socio-political systems

and the "soft" world of "policy practice", where human

understanding, communication and pragmatic decision

making predominate, mostly occupied by pressure groups,

advisers, politicians and consultants whose aim is to make

acceptably good decisions. This depth of this divide

seems to be due to the complexity of human socio-political

phenomena. It results in a distinction between two

communities who are thinking about the same problems of

policy making, and makes effective combination of these

approaches difficult. Those in the field have sometimes

downplayed this divide, but it makes for a real and

substantial obstacle. From the "scientific" point of view

the policy side can seem to deliberately ignore the

complexity of the phenomena, to not care about the truth

and with a tendency to look for justifications for decisions

that have already been made. From the "policy" side the

scientific approach can seem to be politically naive,

remote, inarticulate, and useless in the sense that they

almost never will give straight recommendations but rather

just abstract explanation in ways that are often difficult to

understand. However both sides are often motivated to try

and bridge this divide, sensing that better decisions might be facilitated as a result.

The second day of the workshop focussed on the issues,

ways and approaches for bridging this gap. This is timely

since complexity science could be a bridging stone in this

exercise, for the first time allowing the possibility of

building such bridges in a well-founded manner. The

papers and discussion at the workshop showed that the

topics are very relevant and topical in today!s world, but

still largely unresolved. Overcoming these difficulties calls

for a deeper attention to human specific features, such as:

immediacy, cognition, language, understanding, and

interpretation, but it also showed that complexity science

might be able to help and thus accommodate these

features and, ultimately, to support effecting improvements

in everyday policy practices. The papers presented also

showed that the dramatic progress of ICT can help with

this project, by facilitating the acquisition and immediate

use of stakeholder narratives, allowing their “situated

experiences” to directly feedback into the policy process.

Dave Snowden!s keynote presentation showed how

implicit ground-level feedback techniques, by-passing the

traditional slow modelling process, can be used to improve

the guidance of policy by feeing the flow of information

from those involved to the policy makes in a more direct

manner. This was echoed in Bruce Edmonds! analogy

between how the control problem in AI/robotics mirrors

that of active policy formation. Sylvie Occelli pointed out

that modelling might be used as both an activity as well as

an artefact, that modelling could be a mediator engaging a

wider selection of experts and stakeholders in the policy

making process. As an activity it can aid the integration

between the humanistic world of understanding, and that

of the scientific world of data. As an artefact it can be an

element in the policy debate alongside other means of

expression. Two of the speakers: Giovanni Rabino, and

also Magdalena Bielenia-Grajewska chose to examine the

important role of language in the policy making process,

whilst John Sutcliffe-Braithwaite argued for a meta-

modelling language for specifying and talking about policy

and social issues. However, the debate also showed that

this potential is still underexploited in current policy

practice. In this respect, much further research was

indicated, in particular how policy modelling might be used

as a way to build different mixes of argumentative and

syntactic approaches and so improve the production of policies over the long run.

Web: http://casl.ucd.ie/iru/index.php/eccs-2011-satellite

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Urban social dynamics: segregation and criminality

by Jean-Pierre Nadal

he aim of this one-day workshop has been to bring

together researchers from different backgrounds on

topics of major interest for the analysis and

understanding of urban economics and social dynamics.

Empirical as well as theoretical approaches (mathematical

models and agent-based approaches) have been

presented; methodological aspects discussed. This wide

diversity, both in terms of topics and methodology, has

provoked lively discussions among the speakers and the participants.

The urban segregation models presented at this

workshop go far beyond the original model by Schelling,

and include the interplay between racial and socioeconomic factors.

A. Kirman (keynote speaker) presented a theoretical

model of the role of race and income in the housing

market, showing how the formation of clusters is related to

the individual utility functions. He then discussed some

empirical evidence from a number of American cities. Both

theoretical and empirical results were discussed by L.

Gauvin who studied the Paris real-estate transactions, and

by L. Ozaydin on urban growth in the suburbs of Istanbul.

R. A. Dodson presented a formalisation of Schelling's

Bounded Neighbourhood Model which allows to identify

and resolve ambiguities in the original model and serves the exploration of various model variants.

The topic of criminality included empirical and

theoretical studies of criminal activity and crime repression.

R. Waldeck introduced an application of the Nash

bargaining equilibrium to the modeling of criminal behavior

integrating both cognitive and emotional principles. With a

formulation based on partial differential equations, S.

Barontini discussed a model of evolution of a population in

which age and social structure are taken into account, with

a special emphasis on the link between crime and poverty.

M.B. Gordon tackled the question of the over-

representation of stigmatized minorities in crime. Based

on the analysis of empirical data concerning French

juvenile offenders, she shows that when one compares

populations of similar age and socioeconomic level, there

is no evidence of such over-representation. C. Bruni

presented a game theoretical approach of crime dynamics

to analyze the consequences of different resource

allocation strategies to fight against more than one type of

crime. A. Tseloni (keynote speaker), presented a joint

hierarchical logit model of household burglary victimization

and protection measures. Based on empirical data she

concludes that the efficacy of high quality security

measures strongly depends on the characteristics of the

household while their introduction is strongly associated

with area crime levels rather than individual household risk.

In his keynote talk, J.C. Nuño presented a model to study

the socio-economical burden due to tax evaders, including

spatial effects. There is a trade off between expenditure

needed for repression and the social loss of leaving some

cheaters unpunished. The spatial effects are discussed

with regard to countries that share economy but

implement different policies, with a special focus on the

Spanish system. P. Baudains talked about his ongoing

work on a model of urban violence and riots that takes into

account the spatial environment and the purposive

movement of protesters and police. He furnished

interesting analyses and data on the recent events in

Great Britain. P. Cotelle (the selected junior contribution)

overviewed the consequences of Katrina on urban

insecurity and crime in New Orleans. Her study is based

on an important and original work of data collection. The

criminality session ended with a critique by F. Caccavale

who described the expectations and puzzles of a

traditional criminologist on the complex systems approaches of crime.

Finally the workshop touched upon computational legal

studies: R. Espinosa presented a game theoretical

approach to explain cyclical variations that exist in

American and England legal systems, where the individuals choose either to go for litigation or settlement.

Organizers: Mirta B. Gordon (LIG, Grenoble); Jean-

Pierre Nadal (CAMS, EHESS & LPS, ENS Paris;

Andromachi Tseloni (Nottingham Trent University);

Annick Vignes (ERMES, Univ. Panthéon Sorbonnes/Paris II).

Support: This event was part of the project "DyXi"

supported by the Program SYSCOMM of the French

National Research Agency, the ANR (grant ANR-08-SYSC-008).

Web: http://www.lps.ens.fr/~risc/eccs2011/

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Frontiers in the Theory of Evolution

by Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns

prototype of complex systems in the theory of

evolution is the living cell. Asked by the audience

whether THE cell will be fully understood in the near

future, the answer of one of the speakers was a clear NO:

To describe the cell in all its many facets at the same time

and in a natural environment is scientifically not

accessible, neither currently nor in the near future.

Instead, the art in the game is to break down the

complexity and focus on well defined aspects which allow

a scientific approach. In our satellite we had versatile

examples for such successful analyses: an explanation of

biodiversity of cells and the evolution of their cooperation

in the framework of evolutionary game theory, reproduced

in experiments of microbiology under well controlled

conditions in vitro. Also progress in a detailed

understanding of self-organization within the cell from

simple cytoskeletal elements, or microtubule

reorganization driving cellular morphogenesis has been achieved.

Zooming into the molecular level, the mapping between

sequence space, structure, and function was reported, in

particular it was addressed which evolutionary

mechanisms determine the architecture of metabolic

networks. Based on a model of algebraic chemistry,

metabolism can be selected along with a genetic system

that expresses the catalysts and provides a map from

sequence and structure of the catalysts to their function within the metabolic network.

At the core of basic mechanisms of evolution is selection.

The influence of selection was analyzed on the level of

RNA secondary structure, with complex dynamical

behavior of quasispecies on neutral networks. On a more

abstract level it was shown how radical changes are

induced in the ancestor tree if a simple selection scheme

is at work. Meanwhile many parallels in the organization of

cells, societies and cultural evolution are known. So

selection mechanisms are also needed to explain the

observed trajectories of change in sociohistorical

linguistics, as we learned from a contribution on cultural evolution.

After all, one may wonder about the status of nowadays

attempts to produce protocells in the framework of artificial

life, to produce these cells from “scratch”, that is, from

non-living ingredients. We heard about an attempt to

reconstruct the events that initiate bacterial division in the

test tube, since the very process of cell division is at the

core of living cells. In a different approach, protocells were

designed as thermodynamic "engines", driving a

metabolism which allows the acquisition of information.

Subsystems of the overall engine are working both in

silico and in vitro, but a functioning composition of these

building blocks still remains a challenge for future work.

Even if researchers would soon succeed in constructing

fully functioning protocells, such cells would correspond to

an early stage of evolution, being no serious competitors of our cells, the truly complex units we are made of.

The program of our satellite and speakers with abstracts of their talks can be found under

http://www.jacobs-university.de/ses/frontiersofevolution

As reference we refer to

[1] Principles of Evolution: From the Planck Epoch to Complex Multicellular Life,

eds. H. Meyer-Ortmanns and S. Thurner, Frontiers Collection (Springer, Heidelberg, 2011).

XNet - Complexity & Networks

by Renaud Lambiotte

he mathematical and empirical study of networks

has emerged in the last decade as one of the

fundamental building blocks in the wider study of

complex systems. A network viewpoint emphasizes that

the behaviour of a complex system is shaped by the

interactions among its constituents and offers the

possibility to analyze systems of a very different nature

within a unifying mathematical framework. Complex

networks theory gives the means to identify generic

organization principles across social, biological and

technological systems

and provides key

mathematical tools for

cross-disciplinary research.

The purpose of the

meeting was to bring together researchers and

practitioners working on complex networks and related

areas, with a healthy mix of established and well-reputed,

as well as high-aiming young scientists in the field. We

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especially intended to emphasize the deep connections

between networks and complex systems, and to promote

"hot topics", including time-varying graphs, interplay

between structure and dynamics on networks, spatial and

geo-tagged networks, characterisation of coupled and

multiplex networks, game-theoretical framework,

connections with information theory, etc. The audience

was very diverse, with participants coming from Physics,

Psychology, Applied Mathematics, Biology, Computer

Science, Neuroscience and Economy, and the talks

covered a broad range of topics, e.g. word association

networks, human brain networks, trade networks, online

social networks, etc., as a sign of the multi-disciplinary nature of the field.

Our aim was also to attract participants of ECCS who

might not be familiar with network theory. To achieve this

goal, an introductory course on networks was organized

during the morning of the first day, in order to provide the

keys to understand what complex network theory has

achieved so far, what the current challenges are, and what it can bring to complex systems science.

Web: http://www.eccs2011.eu/satellites/xnet/

Social Energy: a useful concept for analyzing complex social systems?

by Sarah Wolf

n climate economics, a shift of society from the current

equilibrium to another one can provide an important

win-win opportunity for climate and the economy: green

growth. The picture of a double-well potential function,

used to illustrate such a shift, has triggered a discussion

about a social energy concept, as a metaphor in analogy

to energy in physics, among a group of people from the

GSDP network (Global Systems Dynamics and Policy). To

further the discussion of whether and how this could be a

useful tool to study complex socio-ecological systems, a

GSDP workshop was organized at ECCS'11 (see

http://www.gsdp.eu/nc/workshops/?event=36). It provided

new inputs by scheduling a broad spectrum of

presentations: from a conceptual overview to cartoon

models inspired by physics, from ``potential landscapes''

that describe social behaviour of animals to an agent-

based model to study barriers to sustainable energy production.

From the presentations one could learn

• that while it is desirable to have one energy concept

which is easy to communicate, and allows for

measurement and for the application of rigorous

mathematical or computational tools, there are various

energy concepts in the social sciences, for example,

the social energy that is created in people's face-to-

face meetings,

• that very simple models inspired at models from

physics can reproduce and illustrate social phenomena

(such as the tragedy of the commons), thus giving hints

as to possible starting points for policy,

• that potential functions can be extracted from data on

animal behaviour to construct their perceptual

landscape, a tool to study the social behaviour of the

animal population and possibly the energy in their

system,

• that social network effects may be far more important

in energy demand than the price, so that efficiency

improvements may ``rebound'' to a larger energy

consumption, giving hints as to where possible policy

problems might exist,

• and many more things.

The discussions considered several aspects of social

energy concepts. Just to mention one, potential functions

and the fact that some systems cannot be represented by

a potential function were considered -- here the question

what exactly could be a ``social energy'' in the potential

landscape model or in a potential game (in game theory)

has yet to be answered. We are looking forward to

continuing the discussion, possibly also with YOU, on the

GSDP blog

(http://www.gsdp.eu/conversation/discussion/2010/11/09/social-energy/?post=588) or in further workshops.

I

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Conferences and workshops

http://assystcomplexity.eu/conferences.jsp

Environment Conference 2011

SCIENCE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT

- environment for society

Denmark (Aarhus)

5 Oct 2011 to 6 Oct 2011

SocInfo2011

The Third International Conference on

Social Informatics

Singapore

6 Oct 2011 to 8 Oct 2011

EPIA.2011

15th Portuguese Conference on

Artificial Intelligence

Lisbon, Portugal

10 Oct 2011 to 13 Oct 2011

SSS 2011

13th International Symposium on

Stabilization, Safety, and Security of

Distributed Systems

Grenoble, France

10 Oct 2011 to 12 Oct 2011

LAWNP-2011

XII Latin American Workshop on

Nonlinear Phenomena

San Luis Potosi, Mexico

10 Oct 2011 to 14 Oct 2011

Complexity in Business Conference

3rd Annual Complexity in Business

Conference

Washington, DC

14 Oct 2011 to 14 Oct 2011

CloudViews2011

"Cloud Computing & You" - 3rd Cloud

Computing International Conference

Porto, Portugal

17 Oct 2011 to 18 Oct 2011

BizCom2011

2nd International Business Complexity

& the Global Leader Conference

Suffolk University, Sargent Hall, 120

Tremont Street, Boston

17 Oct 2011 to 19 Oct 2011

CASON 2011

Third International Conference on

Computational Aspects of Social

Networks

Salamanca, Spain

19 Oct 2011 to 20 Oct 2011

NaBIC2011

Third World Congress on Nature and

Biologically Inspired Computing

Salamanca University, Spain

19 Oct 2011 to 21 Oct 2011

NICSO 2011

Nature Inspired Cooperative

Strategies for Optimization

Cluj Napoca, Romania

20 Oct 2011 to 22 Oct 2011

SPIM2011

2nd Workshop on Semantic

Personalized Information

Management: Retrieval and

Recommendation

Bonn, Germany

23 Oct 2011 to 24 Oct 2011

SWESE2011

7th International Workshop on

Semantic Web Enabled Software

Engineering

In collaboration with ISWC 2011,

Bonn, Germany

23 Oct 2011 to 24 Oct 2011

SIMUL 2011

The Third International Conference on

Advances in System Simulation

Barcelona, Spain

23 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2011

IJCCI 2011

3rd International Joint Conference on

Computational Intelligence

Paris, France

24 Oct 2011 to 26 Oct 2011

CAS AAAI 2011

AAAI Fall Symposium - Complex

Adaptive Systems: Energy Information

and Intelligence

Arlington, VA, USA

4 Nov 2011 to 6 Nov 2011

WCSCM 2011

Workshop on Complex Systems as

Computing Models

Mexico city, Mexico

9 Nov 2011 to 10 Nov 2011

EUMAS 2011

European Workshop on Multi-agent

Systems

Mastricht, Netherlands

14 Nov 2011 to 15 Nov 2011

BASNA 2011

Business Application of Social

Network Analysis 2011

Bangalore, India

12 Dec 2011 to 12 Dec 2011

HICSSS 2012

Heron Island Complex Systems

Summer School 2012

Heron Island, Australia

16 Jan 2012 to 27 Jan 2012

ICAART 2012

4th International Conference on

Agents and Artificial Intelligence

Vilamoura, Algarve, Portugal

6 Feb 2012 to 8 Feb 2012

ComplexNet 2012

3rd Workshop on Complex Networks

Melbourne, Florida, USA

7 Mar 2012 to 9 Mar 2012

IWSOS 2012

Sixth International Workshop on Self-

Organizing Systems

Delft, The Netherlands

15 Mar 2012 to 16 Mar 2012

INSC 2012

5th International Nonlinear Science

Conference 2012

Barcelona, Spain

15 Mar 2012 to 17 Mar 2012

SESOC2012

4th International Workshop on

Security and Online Social Networks

Lugano, Switzerland

19 Mar 2012 to 19 Mar 2012

CI2012

Collective Intelligence 2012

MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA

18 Apr 2012 to 20 Apr 2012

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8 !

Contributors:

Petra Ahrweiler, Arnaud Banos, Jane Bromley,

Jeff Johnson, Renaud Lambiotte, Jorge Louçã,

Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns, Jean-Pierre Nadal, David MS Rodrigues, and Sarah Wolf

Photo of the ECCS!11 participants by Claudia Sinatra: http://www.eccs2011.eu

.&$%?*4:B9'44'$(*):';"2'("4C**

If you are a Complex System

researcher/practitioner and want to share a

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submit it to newsletter@assystcomplexity.eu.

The story should approximately 500 words (if you

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us) and should be sent in TXT, ODT, RTF or DOC

file formats.

Contacts

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The ASSYST project acknowledges the financial

support of the Future and Emerging

Technologies (FET) programme within the ICT

theme of the Seventh Framework Programme for Research of the European Commission.

Reading Snippets

Twitter Study Tracks When We Are :)

However grumpy people are when they wake up, and whether

they stumble to their feet in Madrid, Mexico City or Minnetonka,

Minn., they tend to brighten by breakfast time and feel their

moods taper gradually to a low in the late afternoon, before

rallying again near bedtime, a large-scale study of posts on the social media site Twitter found.

www.nytimes.com/2011/09/30/science/30twitter.html

Speed-of-light results under scrutiny at Cern "Despite the large [statistical] significance of this measurement

that you have seen and the stability of the analysis, since it has

a potentially great impact on physics, this motivates the

continuation of our studies in order to find still-unknown systematic effects,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15017484

Bacteria Make Hydrogen Fuel From Water

Most of the renewable energy sources that are under

consideration involve an obvious source of energy — light, heat,

or motion. But this is the second time this year there has been a

paper that has focused on a less obvious source: the potential

difference between fresh river water and the salty oceans it

flows into. But this paper doesn!t simply use the difference to

produce some electricity; instead, it adds bacteria to the process and takes out a portable fuel: hydrogen.

www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/09/bacteria-water-hydrogen-fuel/

Why Cities Keep Growing, Corporations and People Always Die, and Life Gets Faster “The great thing about cities, the thing that is amazing about

cities is as they grow, so to speak, their dimensionality

increases. That is, the space of opportunity, the space of

functions, the space of jobs just continually increases. And the

data shows that. If you look at job categories, it continually

increases. I'll use the word "dimensionality." It opens up. And in

fact, one of the great things about cities is that it supports crazy

people. You walk down Fifth Avenue, you see crazy people.

There are always crazy people. Well, that's good. Cities are tolerant of extraordinary diversity. ...”

In Edge: http://edge.org/conversation/geoffrey-west