Assumptions & Risks Exercise Last updated Oct 2013

Introduction The purpose of this exercise is to help you think through your belief system for your big idea. By understanding your assumptions and identifying the risky ones, you will know what you need to go learn and test. The answers to the questions should be very concise and as specific as possible. Don’t list all the possible answers, but rather share what you currently believe is the most likely answer. Remember: it is ok to be wrong if you find out the truth quickly.

My target customer will be: ____________________________________

Customer Assumption

Tip: How would you describe your primary target customer?

The problem my customer wants to solve is: ____________________________________

Problem Assumption

Tip: What does your customer struggle with or what need do they want to fulfill?

My customer’s need can be solved with: ____________________________________

Solution Assumption

Tip: Provide a very concise description (elevator pitch) of your product

The measurable outcome my customer wants to achieve is: ____________________________________

Customer Outcome Assumption

Tip: What measurable change happens in your customer’s life that makes them love your product?

The measurable outcome my business wants to achieve by creating this product is: ____________________________________

Business Outcome Assumption

Tip: Is there a particular outcome that your business is seeking?

My primary customer acquisition tactic will be: ____________________________________

Customer Acquisition Assumption

Tip: You will have multiple marketing channels, but there is often one, at most two, that dominates your customer acquisition. What is your current guess?

My earliest adopter will be: ____________________________________

Early Adopter Assumption

Tip: You cannot get to your mainstream customer without getting early adopters first! Who are they?

I will make money (revenue) by: ____________________________________

Monetization Assumption

Tip: Does revenue come from subscriptions? advertising? Don’t list all the ideas for making money. Pick your primary one and share it here.

My primary competition will be: ____________________________________

Competition Assumption

Tip: This is one topic where it is ok to list more than one or two. Who is your direct competition? indirect competition?

I will beat my competitors primarily because of: ____________________________________

Differentiation Assumption

Tip: What will truly differentiate you from competitors?

My biggest risk to financial viability is: ____________________________________

Financial Assumption

Tip: what could prevent you from getting to breakeven? is there something baked into your revenue or cost model that you can de-risk?

My biggest technical or engineering risk is: ____________________________________

Engineering Assumption

Tip: Is there a major technical challenge that could get in the way of actually building your product?

What assumptions do we have that, if proven wrong, would cause this to fail?

Risks to failure

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Of everything you just filled out, what are your biggest concerns?

Risks to failure

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Tip: Think about the beliefs that, if you really are honest, have a lot of uncertainty baked into them and could seriously impact your business.

Next Steps: Experiments

Given your big concerns, how can you gather evidence that you are on the right path in the next 2 days? The next week or two? What experiment can you run? Who can you interview? Don’t lose sight of your vision, but focus on speed of learning and pay that risk down!

About Us Headquartered in San Francisco, Neo Innovation, Inc. (www.neo.com) is a global product innovation company. We partner with our clients to make digital products that people need, want and love. Like a startup, we understand that a digital product is a continuous process that requires ongoing iterations to meet evolving goals. Like a global company, we understand that products must ultimately deliver business value. Neo’s clients cover the spectrum from startups to large enterprises and governments and include world-recognized organizations like Time, American Express, PayPal, Sunlight Foundation, GE, AT&T, ICANN and Turnstone.

contact@neo.com Credits Exercise: @giffco Slide 15: @clevergirl