Asset Management Lecture Three. Outline for today Index model Index model Single-factor index model...
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Transcript of Asset Management Lecture Three. Outline for today Index model Index model Single-factor index model...
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Asset ManagementAsset Management
Lecture ThreeLecture Three
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Outline for todayOutline for today
Index modelIndex modelSingle-factor index modelSingle-factor index modelAlpha and security analysisAlpha and security analysis
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Drawbacks of MarkowitzDrawbacks of Markowitz
The model requires a huge number of The model requires a huge number of estimates estimates E.g. 50 stocksE.g. 50 stocks
50 estimates of E(r)50 estimates of E(r)50 estimates of var(r)50 estimates of var(r)1225 estimates of cov(ri, rj)1225 estimates of cov(ri, rj)
The model does not provide guideline to The model does not provide guideline to the forecasting of E(r)-rfthe forecasting of E(r)-rf
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Assumption: a broad market index like the Assumption: a broad market index like the S&P 500 is the common factor.S&P 500 is the common factor.
ßßii = index of a securities’ particular return = index of a securities’ particular return
to the factorto the factor m m = Unanticipated movement in common = Unanticipated movement in common
factor that drives security returnsfactor that drives security returns eeii = firm-specific surprise = firm-specific surprise
Single Factor ModelSingle Factor Model
( )i i i ir E r m e
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Single-Index ModelSingle-Index Model
Regression Equation:Regression Equation:
Expected return-beta relationship:Expected return-beta relationship:
( ) ( ) ( )t i t M iR t R t e t
( ) ( )i i i ME R E R Systematic risk Systematic risk
premiumpremiumNon-market Non-market
premiumpremium
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Single-Index Model ContinuedSingle-Index Model ContinuedRisk and covariance:Risk and covariance:
Total risk = Systematic risk + Firm-specific Total risk = Systematic risk + Firm-specific risk:risk:
Covariance = product of betas x market index Covariance = product of betas x market index risk:risk:
Correlation = product of correlations with the Correlation = product of correlations with the market indexmarket index
2 2 2 2 ( )i i M ie
2( , )i j i j MCov r r
2 2 2
( , ) ( , ) ( , )i j M i M j Mi j i M j M
i j i M j M
Corr r r Corr r r xCorr r r
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Index Model and DiversificationIndex Model and Diversification Portfolio’s variance:Portfolio’s variance:
Variance of the equally weighted portfolio of Variance of the equally weighted portfolio of firm-specific components:firm-specific components:
When When nn gets large, becomes gets large, becomes negligible negligible
222 2
1
1 1( ) ( ) ( )
n
P ii
e e en n
2 2 2 2 ( )P P M Pe
2 ( )Pe
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Figure 8.1 The Variance of an Equally Figure 8.1 The Variance of an Equally Weighted Portfolio with Risk Coefficient Weighted Portfolio with Risk Coefficient
ββpp in the Single-Factor Economy in the Single-Factor Economy
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Example: HP and the S&P 500Example: HP and the S&P 500
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Example: HP and the S&P 500Example: HP and the S&P 500
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Table 8.1 Excel Output: Regression Table 8.1 Excel Output: Regression Statistics for the SCL of Hewlett-PackardStatistics for the SCL of Hewlett-Packard
2500&
2PSHP
3817.01211.0
11.0
012.059/7162.059/2
SDannualized
SDmonthly
SSTotalmonthly HP
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Figure 8.4 Excess Returns on Portfolio Figure 8.4 Excess Returns on Portfolio AssetsAssets
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Alpha and Security AnalysisAlpha and Security Analysis
Macroeconomic analysis is used to estimate Macroeconomic analysis is used to estimate the risk premium and risk of the market indexthe risk premium and risk of the market index
Statistical analysis is used to estimate the Statistical analysis is used to estimate the beta coefficients of all securities and their beta coefficients of all securities and their residual variances, residual variances, σσ2 2 ( ( e i )e i )
Developed from security analysisDeveloped from security analysis
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Alpha and Security AnalysisAlpha and Security Analysis The market-driven expected return is The market-driven expected return is
conditional on information common to all conditional on information common to all securitiessecurities
Security-specific expected return forecasts Security-specific expected return forecasts are derived from various security-valuation are derived from various security-valuation models models The alpha value distills the incremental risk The alpha value distills the incremental risk
premium attributable to private informationpremium attributable to private information Helps determine whether security is a good Helps determine whether security is a good
or bad buyor bad buy