Assessment on Disaster Risks and Post Disaster Impact

BANGLADESH SESSION 2

ASSESSMENT OF DISASTER RISKS AND POST-DISASTER IMPACT

September 25, 2014, China

Presented by:

Satyabrata Saha Joint Secretary (DM) Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh

Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)

Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is positioned at the juncture of several active tectonic plate boundaries. Moreover, it lies on the world’s largest river delta at close to sea level, facing both the risk posed by a quake and secondary risks of tsunamis and flooding in the quake’s aftermath.

TECTONIC SETTING OF BANGLADESH

RECENT EARTHQUAKES 1997, May 8: Sylhet EQ (Mb = 5.6)

1997, November 21: Bandarban EQ (Mb = 6.1)

1999, July 22: Moheshkhali EQ (Mb = 5.1)

2001, December 19: Dhaka EQ ( Mb= 4.2)

2003, July 27: Rangamati (Barkal) EQ (Ms=5.5)

2005, October: Jessore (Narial) EQ (Ms=4.3)

2008, July 5: Rajshahi (Tanore) EQ (Ms=4.1)

2008, July 27: Mymensingh (Haluaghat) EQ (Ms=4.9)

2009 - 2014: country frequently experiences earthquake having epicentre in and around.



Different magnitude levels of historical Earthquake occurrences in Bangladesh (1885-1990)

>

Year Total event within 600 km Within Bangladesh

2007 27 13

2008 51 30

2009 32 16

Total Event 110 59

DAMAGES OF SOME EARTHQUAKES



Building collapsed, Chittagong, 1999

BDR Camp, Barkal fault, Rangamati 2007

Mud House Damage, Barkal, Rangamati 2007

Buildings toppled, Rajshahi 2008

Side-wall Collapse, Mymensingh

http://www.thedailystar.net/2005/01/28/d501281901112p.htm



Seismic Hazard

Building Stock Lifeline Systems

Geological Data

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 30 60 90 120 150

PGV (cm/s)

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Collapse

Extensive Damage

Moderate Damage Small Damage

Damge

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT (APPROACH)

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT



Major Research and Studies since 2009

Active Fault Mapping and Modeling in Bangladesh by Dr. Michio Morino (2009)

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Area by ADPC (2009)

Time-Predictable Fault Modeling for Seismic Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Area by ADPC and OYO International Corporation (2009)

Quaternary Geological Mapping of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet Cities by Dr. Md. Hussain Monsur

Engineering geological map for seismic hazard and vulnerability assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet city corporation area

Active fault mapping in Bangladesh: Paleo-seismological study of the Dauki fault and the Indian-Burman plate boundary fault by Dr. Michio Morino and Dr. A. S. M. Maksud Kamal (2013)

Development of Geo Dynamic Model of Bangladesh by ADPC (2014)

Development of Building Inventory Modeling in 50 Wards of Dhaka and Chittagong City by ADPC (2014)

Seismic risk assessment completed in six EQ vulnerable cities by ADPC (2014)

6 City level and 50 ward level spatial contingency plans completed by ADPC (2014)

Risk incorporated land use plan developed for Mymensing City by Urban Development Directorate (2014)

Urban Community Risk Assessment Guideline (2014)

RISK ASSESSMENT SOCIO ECONOMIC AND PHYSICAL

CDMP II has facilitated Urban Risk Assessment (URA) in 3 wards of Dhaka North City Corporation and also developed Risk Reduction Action Plan (RRAP) in collaboration with ActionAid Bangladesh.

Developed a Facilitators Guidebook on conduction of URA

Is in the process of Scaling up to conduct this URA in 22 more wards of 12 City Corporations/Municipalities in 11 Major Districts



Risk Reduction Interventions

• Preparedness and mitigation

• Response

• Recovery/rehabilitation

Risk Assessment

• URA

• FTRA

• RRAP

EQ IMPACT: PREDICTION BASED



Seismic Vulnerability Assessment (2009)

Dhaka City Corporation (7.5 Mw): Building damage: 326,000 Damage beyond repair: 72,316 Economic loss: $16,740 million

GIS-based Building Inventory Using Satellite Images (Quick bird) and Field Investigations

Chittagong City Corp. (8.5 Mw): Building damage: 182,000 Damage beyond repair: 142,856 Economic loss: $3,378 million

Sylhet City Corp. (8.0 Mw): Building damage: 52,000 Building beyond repair: 24,944 Economic loss: $926 million

EQ IMPACT: DAMAGE ESTIMATION



Scenario Based

City Corporation Fault Name Exten.-modern Building Damage

Com. Building Damage

Dhaka

Madhupur Fault (Mw 7.5)

86,000 72,000

Plate Boundary Fault 2 (Mw 8.0)

47,000 45,000

Chittagong


25,000 142,000


40,000 18,000

Sylhet

Dauki Fault 16,000 25,000


10,000 2,000

EQ IMPACT: OTHERS



Scenario Based: GENERATION OF DEBRIS

City Corporation Scenario Earthquake Amount of Debris (million of tons)

Truckloads (@25 tons/truck)

Dhaka Madhupur Fault 30 1,200,000

Chittagong Plate Boundary Fault 1 17 700,000

Sylhet Dauki Fault 2 80,000

Scenario Based: DAMAGE TO LIFELINE SERVICES (DHAKA CITY)

Services Poles/Line Length Damages of Poles Number of breaks

Electricity 55,000 16,000 -

Gas 834 km - 191 km

Potable water 1,118 km - 272 km

Sewage line 630 km - 360 km

EQ IMPACT: ESSENTIAL FACILITIES



Scenario Based 7.5 Mw : Dhaka City Corporation Area Facilities Number Moderate

damages Complete damages

50% operational on Day 1

Hospitals 600 197 10 280

Schools 2,737 857 90 1,241

Police Stations 62 21 0 23

Fire Stations 10 4 1 5

LESSON LEARNT AND WAY FORWARD



Lessons LEARNED Key point installation and heavy structure should be constructed following the intensity given in

Micro-zonation maps

Micro-zonation maps should be integrated with the detailed area plan to develop risk integrated Land use plan

Proper geotechnical/engineering geological, structural, architectural and monitoring knowledge should be applied during the construction of a buildings

Way FORWARD

Include more cities to for URA.

Revision and promoting the application /enforcement of Bangladesh National Building Code, ongoing effort to develop a national guidelines on Disaster Response Mechanism; advocacy of safer construction of public infrastructure; support to the Earthquake Preparedness and Awareness Committee (EPAC)

Raising individual, family and community level awareness to develop risk reduction culture.

Working with the City Development Authority/ Municipality to incorporate the Risk Assessment Results into existing City Master Plans

Thank you

For more information contact:

Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief

Bangladesh Secretariat , Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

E-mail: [email protected], Website: www.modmr.gov.bd

mailto:[email protected]

Assessment on Disaster Risks and Post Disaster Impact

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