Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia
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Transcript of Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia
Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia
Case studies from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan
Bogachan Benli, Aziz Nurbekov, Tulkun Yuldashev and Ram SharmaInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Cent
ral A
sia
Clim
ate
Smar
t Agr
icul
ture
Wor
ksho
p, 1
2-14
July
201
6, B
ishk
ek, K
yrgy
zsta
n
Global food security
Thomas Robert Malthus Principle of population (1806)
Global food security70% of more food 974 more calories
Wheat agriculture in Central Asia
Source: FAO, 20141992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
0
5
10
15
20
25 KazakhstanKyrgzystanTajikistanTurkmensitanUzbekistan
Mt
Wheat Yields in Central Asia
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan
kg/h
a
Source: FAO STATS, 2014
Questions
1. What are the improved soil, crop and water management practices to sustainably meet the increasing demand?
2. What are the yield gaps of wheat crop in Central Asia
Methodology - Agro-climatic zonesA-C-VW Arid, cool winter, very warm summerA-C-W Arid, cool winter, warm summerA-K-C Arid, cold winter, cool summerA-K-M Arid, cold winter, mild summer A-K-VW Arid, cold winter, very warm summer A-K-W Arid, cold winter, warm summerH-K-C Humid, cold winter, cool summerH-K-M Humid, cold winter, mild summer H-K-W Humid, cold winter, warm summer PH-K-K Per-humid, cold winter, cold summerPH-K-M Per-humid, cold winter, mild summerPH-K-W Per-humid, cold winter, warm summerSA-C-W Semi-arid, cool winter, warm summer SA-K-C Semi-arid, cold winter, cool summer SA-K-M Semi-arid, cold winter, mild summerSA-K-W Semi-arid, cold winter, warm summerSH-C-W Sub-humid, cold winter, warm summerSH-K-C Sub-humid, cold winter, cool summerSH-K-M Sub-humid, cold winter, mild summerSH-K-W Sub-humid, cold winter, warm summer
Irrigated-High Salinity
Irrigated -Low salinity
Irrigated-Medium Salinity
Rainfed-Low salinity
Rainfed-Medium Salinity
Rainfed-High Salinity
Methodology - Selected sitesCountry Province SiteKazakhstan Kyzylordinskaya ShieliKazakhstan Kustanayskaya KustanayKazakhstan Sever-Kazakhstanskay AstanaKazakhstan North Kazakhstan PetropavlovskKazakhstan Atyrauskaya MakatKazakhstan Jambylslkaya SarysuKazakhstan Yujno-kazachstanskaya SuzakKazakhstan Vostochno-kazachstanskaya ZaysanKazakhstan Zapadno-kazachstanskaya ZelyenovKazakhstan Severo-kazachstanskaya BulayevKazakhstan Almatinskaya RaimbekKyrgyzstan Chui valley AlamudunTajikistan Bokhtar Khatlon provinveUzbekistan Syrdarya province AkaltynUzbekistan Khorezm province UrgenchUzbekistan Karakalpakstan Chimbay districtUzbekistan Bukhara Peshku districtUzbekistan Bukhara Karakul district
Methodology – Activities
Farmers Yield Survey, National Agricultural Research Centers (1991-2015)
Research Yield Review of Existing Studies
Potential Yield CropSyst (Crop, soil and irrigation management)
Identification of the causes of gaps
Management options to reduce
the gaps
Model Calibration and validation
0 4000 8000 12000 160000
4000
8000
12000
16000AGB
2005/062006/07
0 2000 4000 6000 80000
2000
4000
6000
8000
Yield
0 50 100 150 2000
50
100
150
200
N-uptake
• CropSyst Model• 2005-2008 (3 years data)• Amir Temur Farmer’s
Association (101m asl), Urgench, Uzbekistan
• Effect of water and nitrogen fertilizer use on winter wheat
Irrigated High Salinity – Kyrgyzstan Bishkek - Daniyar
Farmers Yield (Kg/ha)
Research Results (Kg/ha)
Potential Yield (Kg/ha)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000 2007-08 2008-09
Farmers yield
Research results – 47%
Potential yield – 181%
Yield Gap
Farmers Practices• Planting date: Sep -Dec; Mainly Cotton & Wheat Rotation • Salinity problems• Inefficiency with Irrigation, Fertilizer, Herbicide Rate
Research Results (Sommer et al, 2013)- 115 mm of IRR and N90&P60
Optimum IRR (180 – 270 mm) and N90 application
Irrigated Medium Salinity – Uzbekistan Khorezm
Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha) -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Farmers yield
Research results – 7%
Potential yield – 39%
Yield Gap
Farmers Practices• Planting date: Sep -Dec; Mainly Cotton & Wheat Rotation • No Land levelling• Hydro Module Zone Approach in Irrigation
Research Results (Ibrohimov et al, 2009)- 600 mm of IRR and N240
Optimum IRR (250 – 275 mm. And 240kg N application)
Irrigated Low Salinity – Uzbekistan Bukhara Peshku
Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha) -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Farmers yield
Research results – 44%
Yield Gap
Farmers yield
Research results – 19%
Potential yield – 30%
Farmers Practices• Planting date: Sep -Dec; Mainly Cotton & Wheat Rotation • No Land levelling• Hydro Module Zone Approach in Irrigation
Research Results (Anvar, 2010)- 300 mm of IRR and N300
Optimum IRR (200-340 mm) and N333 application
Rainfed High Salinity – Tajikistan Bokhtar Khatlon
Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha) -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007-08 2008-09
Yield GapFarmers yield
Research results – 110%
Potential yield – 152%
Farmers Practices• Drought and salt tolerant varieties are missing• Low efficiency in fertilizer application• Salinity problems
Research Results (Sommer et al, 2013)- 80 mm IRR at sowing (November)
Early sowing (October) + 50 mm IRR & 50 mm at flower
Rainfed Medium Salinity – Kazakhstan Atyrauskaya MakatFarmers Practices• Wheat – Fallow rotation• Planting date is ranging one month (May-June)• Low fertilizer and herbicide applications• Drought tolerant varieties are missing• Low efficiency in tillage operations
Research Results (Aybatsha and Tsigankov V.I. 2009)-(Planting in May + P150)
Early sowing + 50 mm IRR + Optimum N30 applicationBusy Fallow &Water Harvesting & No till & Crop Residues
Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha)0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1999 2000 2001
Farmers yield
Research results – 53%
Potential yield – 159%
Yield Gap
Rainfed Low Salinity – Kazakhstan Vostochno Zaysan
Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha) -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003
Farmers yield
Research results – 16%
Potential yield – 49%
Farmers Practices• Wheat – Fallow rotation• Drought tolerant varieties are missing• Low efficiency in tillage operations
Research Results (Iorganskiy A.I., 2008)-(Planting in May + Tillage)
Early sowing + 50 mm IRR + N30 applicationBusy Fallow &Water Harvesting & No till & Crop Residues
Farmers yield
Research results – 16%
Potential yield – 100%
Yield Gap
Conclusion
Irrigated Sites1.5 times yield increase Optimum irrigation and
Nitrogen applicationIn salinized areas GW
intrusion is causing the secondary salinization
problem
• Residue retention or mulching • Crop rotation with alfalfa,
second harvest mungbean • Optimum leaching rates• Improved varieties would
increase yields more
Rainfed Sites1.6 times yield increase
Early sowing, supplementary irrigation at sowing (50mm)
and/or flowering & busy fallow & crop residue & water
harvesting. Optimum Nitrogen application
• Improved varieties• Crop rotation• Optimum sowing date• Nitrogen application right after
rainfall