Assessment of important SPECIATE profiles in EPA's ... · Age of profile Appropriateness ......

ASSESSMENT OF IMPORTANT SPECIATE PROFILES IN EPA’S EMISSIONS MODELING PLATFORM

CASEY D. BRAY, MADELEINE STRUM, HEATHER SIMON, LEE RIDDICK, MIKE KOSUSKO, VENKATESH RAO

OVERVIEW ▪ What is SPECIATE?

▪ Why do we care?

▪ Project goals

▪ Steps so far

▪ Results

▪ Conclusions

▪ Future work

2

SPECIATE▪ Database containing the speciation profiles from specific emissions source types for

both volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as well as particulate matter (PM) emission sources. Includes fields specifying:

▪ Emission source category

▪ Weight fractions of PM/VOC chemical species

▪ Test methods

▪ Test year

▪ Reference

▪ etc

▪ Used for policy planning and research purposes

3

SPECIATE AS PART OF EMISSIONS MODELING

4

Base Inventories

(annual, monthly, daily, hourly)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1

21

41

61

81

10

1

12

1

14

1

16

1

18

1

20

1

22

1

24

1

26

1

28

1

30

1

32

1

34

1

36

1

PM

2.5

(to

ns)

Final product: gridded, hourly, speciated emissions in a format for an air quality model

Speciation Profiles

SMOKESMOKE software system performs temporal allocation, speciation, and spatial allocation to create…

• Total VOC and PM2.5 need to be speciated into chemical components for photochemical modeling

• Each speciation profile is cross-referenced to an inventory source by SCC, pollutant, and potentially by region

• SCC-to-profile mapping is specific to the EPA modeling platform and is separate from the SPECIATE database itself

• Thousands of SCCS in the NEI are mapped to a few hundred profiles

• Onroad mobile source emissions species come directly from the EPA MOVES model

WHY WE CARE

PM2.5

▪ Health impacts

▪ Decreased lung function, asthma, irregular heart beat, heart attacks and even death in people with heart or lung disease

▪ Environmental impacts

▪ Reduced visibility, acidification, depleting nutrients in soil, corrosion of metal, erosion of buildings/sculptures, etc.

▪ SPECIATE helps estimate black carbon – short term climate forcer

VOCS

▪ Health impacts

▪ Irritation of the eyes, nose and throat, headaches, loss of coordination, nausea, damage to the liver, kidneys and central nervous system, visual disorders, visual impairment and some VOCs can even cause cancer

▪ Precursor for ozone

▪ Ozone associated with number of health and environmental impacts

5

GOALS OF PROJECT▪ Objective: Needs assessment to determine where the greatest need for new and/or

improved emission profiles is

▪ 3 major goals:

▪ 1. To determine the key profiles that are being used within the EPA 2014 modeling platform

▪ 2. To prioritize the running list of papers and reports that have been identified but not yet added to SPECIATE

▪ 3. To identify gaps in the current literature in order to direct research groups, both within the EPA and external groups, to measure speciation from sources that will be the most beneficial to the US EPA’s modeling and policy efforts.

6

STEPS SO FAR▪ Step 1: Identify most used profiles

▪ Ranked profiles by total mass assigned in EPA’s most recent 2014 modeling platform

▪ Step 2: Conduct in depth evaluation

▪ Profile analysis criteria: Top 90% of PM emissions (by mass) and top 65% of VOC emissions (by mass)

▪ Further examinations:

▪ Quality of profile

▪ Age of profile

▪ Appropriateness of profile

▪ Region

▪ Step 3: Identify high priority profile gaps

Step 3

Identify high priority profile gaps

Step 2

Conduct in depth

evaluation

Step 1 Identify most used profiles

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REGIONS

Source: NOAA

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

South Southeast Southwest West West NorthCentral

Central East NorthCentral

Northeast Northwest

rail dust nonpoint agfire

nonroad commercial marine vessels ptfire egu

other point sources oilgas residential wood combustion onroad

MAJOR PM2.5 SECTORS

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MAJOR PM2.5 PROFILES (% OF MASS ASSIGNED IN 2014 EPA MODELING PLATFORM)*

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SE PM2.5 NE PM2.5 SW PM2.5 National

Perc

ent

of

PM

2.5

Em

issi

on

s

Wildfires-Composite Unpaved Road Dust-CompositeAgricultural Soil-Composite Agricultural Burning-CompositeResidential Wood Combustion-Composite HDDV Exhaust-CompositeConstruction Dust-Composite Paved Road Dust-CompositePrescribed Burning-Composite Sub-Bituminous Combustion-CompositeSand & Gravel-Composite Natural Gas Combustion-CompositeNonroad Gasoline Exhaust-Composite Wood Fired Boiler-CompositeDistillate Oil Combustion-Composite Charbroiling - Composite

Prescribed Burning

Wood fired Boiler

Charbroiling

Residential Wood

WildfiresAG Burning

10

*excludes emissions from the onroad mobile sector


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Perc

ent

of

PM

2.5

Em

issi

on

s

Wildfires-Composite Unpaved Road Dust-Composite Agricultural Soil-CompositeAgricultural Burning-Composite Residential Wood Combustion-Composite HDDV Exhaust-CompositeConstruction Dust-Composite Paved Road Dust-Composite Prescribed Burning-CompositeSub-Bituminous Combustion-Composite Sand & Gravel-Composite Natural Gas Combustion-CompositeNonroad Gasoline Exhaust-Composite Wood Fired Boiler-Composite Distillate Oil Combustion-CompositeCharbroiling - Composite Mineral Products-Avg-Composite Meat Frying-CompositePetroleum Industry-Avg-Composite Other

Prescribed Burning

Wood fired Boiler

Charbroiling

Residential WoodCombustion

WildfiresAG Burning

11



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Perc

ent

of

PM

2.5

Em

issi

on

s


Prescribed Burning

Wood fired Boiler

Charbroiling


WildfiresAG Burning

12



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Perc

ent

of

PM

2.5

Em

issi

on

s


Prescribed Burning

Wood fired Boiler

Charbroiling


WildfiresAG Burning

13


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

South Southeast Southwest West West NorthCentral

Central East NorthCentral

Northeast Northwest

rail nonpoint agfire nonroad

commercial marine vessels ptfire egu other point sources

oilgas residential wood combustion onroad

MAJOR VOC SECTORS

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SE VOC PROFILES*

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*excludes emissions from the onroad and nonroad mobile sectors

Prescribed fire southeast conifer forest

36%

Wildfire boreal forest5%

Architectural Coatings: Solvent Borne and water

borne4%

Gasoline Headspace Vapor - 0% Ethanol

4%Household Products

4%

Personal Care Products4%

Graphic Arts - (Printing)4%

Pesticides/FIFRA-Regulated Products

3%

Pesticides3%

Other33%

(1,493,173 tons/year)

SW VOC PROFILES*

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Composite of 7 Emission Profiles from Crude Oil Storage Tanks - 1993

12%Composite Profile -

Prescribed fire southwest conifer forest

11%Oil and Gas Production -Composite

Profile -Untreated

Natural Gas, Uinta Basin

7%

Oil and Gas -South San Juan Basin Produced Gas

Composition from Non-CBM Gas Wells

6%Oil and Gas -Denver-

Julesburg Basin Produced Gas Composition from

Non-CBM Gas Wells6%

Oil and Gas Production -Composite Profile - Oil

Tank Vent Gas, Uinta Basin6%

Composite Profile - Oil and Natural Gas Production -

Condensate Tanks5%

Oil and Gas -Permian Basin Produced Gas

Composition for Non-CBM Wells

4%

Oil and Gas Production -Composite Profile - Glycol Dehydrator, Uinta Basin

3%

Composite Profile -Prescribed fire northwest

conifer forest3%

Other37%

(953,352 tons/year)

NE VOC PROFILES*

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Natural Gas Production11%

Fireplace wood combustion - pine wood

10%

Architectural Coatings: Solvent Borne and water

borne7%

Graphic Arts - (Printing)7%

Solvents And Coating Related Products

5%

Gasoline Headspace Vapor - 0% Ethanol (E0)

5%

Household Products4%

Other51%

(823,885 tons/year)

NATIONAL VOC PROFILES*

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Prescribed fire southwest conifer

forest12%

Crude Oil Storage Tanks

9%

Prescribed fire southeast

conifer forest9%

Wildfire boreal forest

6%

Natural Gas Production

6%

Wildfire northwest conifer forest

5%

Prescribed fire northwest conifer

forest3%

Graphic Arts -(Printing)

3%

Oil and Gas Production -Fugitives - Valves and

Fittings - Liquid Service3%

Fireplace wood combustion - pine

wood3%

Other41%

(112,324,887 tons/year)

PRIORITIZATION OF PROFILES▪ Need to assess the quality and appropriateness of profiles

▪ Criteria assessed:

▪ Age

▪ Reliability of reference

▪ Study region versus profile region

▪ SCCs to which profile is applied (appropriateness, match in specificity)

▪ Prevalence of profile in the EPA modeling platform

▪ Any notes on the profile

▪ Those criteria were then assigned point values and used to create priority rankings for PM2.5 and VOC source profiles in need of updates

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PROFILE PRIORITIZATION RANKING SYSTEM

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Criteria Points assigned

Age

Old 1

New 0

Reliability of Reference

Low 2

Med 1

High 0

SCC issue?

No 0

Minor 1

Major 2

% Weight

>12% 4

8-12% 3

4-8% 2

<4% 1

Error in data?

No 0

Yes 2

Study region applicable?

Yes 0

No 1

EXAMPLE OF A LOW PRIORITY NEED

▪ Profile: Composite Profile –Prescribed fire southwest conifer forest▪ Species: VOC▪ Year: 2010▪ Test Method: Both in-situ and lab

measurements▪ Control Methods: Uncontrolled▪ QA: Peer reviewed▪ SCCs: OK ▪ Reference: Urbanski et al., 2010▪ Weight: ▪ NE: -%▪ SE: -%▪ SW: 10%▪ NAT: 11%

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Criteria Points assigned

Age

Yes 1

No 0

Reliability of

Reference

Low 2

Med 1

High 0

SCC issue?

No 0

Minor 1

Major 2

% Weight

>12% 4

8-12% 3

4-8% 2

<4% 1

Error in data?

No 0

Yes 2

Study region

applicable?

Yes 0

No 1

This Profile

X

X

X

X

X

X

Total Score: 4

EXAMPLE OF A HIGH PRIORITY NEED▪ Profile: 91113 – Nonroad Gasoline Exhaust –

Composite▪ Species: PM2.5▪ Year: 1998▪ Test Method: Two vehicles were tested (1970

Volkswagen Vancamper, 1969 Chevy Camaro). The vehicles were tested at the California Air Resources Board (CARB) Haagen-Smit Laboratory in El Monte, CA.

▪ Control Methods: Uncontrolled▪ QA: ?▪ SCCs: SCCs EXTREMELY variable – industrial

gasoline boiler, engine testing of internal combustion engines, several off highway vehicle gasoline equipment

▪ Notes: Based on 4559▪ Reference: Reff et al., 2009▪ Weight:

▪ NE: 3%▪ SE: 1%▪ SW: 2%▪ NAT: 7%

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Criteria

Points

assigned

Age

Yes 1

No 0

Reliability of

Reference

Low 2

Med 1

High 0

SCC issue?

No 0

Minor 1

Major 2

% Weight

>12% 4

8-12% 3

4-8% 2

<4% 1

Error in data?

No 0

Yes 2

Study region

applicable?

Yes 0

No 1

This Profile

X

X

X

X

X

X

Total Score: 7

PRIORITY RANKING FOR PM2.5 SOURCE PROFILES IN NEED OF UPDATES

Profile Profile Name Score Ranking

91102 Wildfires - Composite 9 1

91103 Agricultural Burning - Composite 9 1

91106 HDDV Exhaust - Composite 8 2

91110 Sub-Bituminous Combustion - Composite 7 3

91113 Nonroad Gasoline Exhaust - Composite 7 3

91109 Prescribed Burning - Composite 7 3

91101 Agricultural Soil - Composite 6 4

91112 Natural Gas Combustion - Composite 5 5

91108 Paved Road Dust - Composite 4 6

91100 Unpaved Road Dust - Composite 4 6

91105 Residential Wood Combustion – Composite 3 7

91116 Charbroiling – Composite 3 7

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• One study included fencepost profiles – not representative of wildfire

• Single profile currently being used for all wildfire and prescribed fire emissions including:• Flaming and smoldering• Fires in all regions of the country

despite varying fuel types















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• Old profiles used in composite

• Only representative of crops in the west – regional profiles may be better for this profile

• SCCs cover more than just agricultural burning (i.e. open burning)

PRIORITY RANKING FOR VOC SOURCE PROFILES IN NEED OF UPDATES

Profile Name Total Rank

121 Open Burning Dump - Landscape/Pruning 6 1

4642 Fireplace wood combustion - pine wood 5 2

2487 Composite of 7 Emission Profiles from Crude Oil Storage Tanks - 1993 5 2

8949 Natural Gas Production 5 2

95421 Composite Profile - Prescribed fire southeast conifer forest 5 2

3145 Consumer Products Composite: Pesticides/FIFRA-Regulated Products 4 3

3146 Consumer Products Composite: Household Products 4 3

3147 Consumer Products Composite: Personal Care Products 4 3

95425 Composite Profile - Wildfire boreal forest 4 3

95422 Composite Profile - Prescribed fire southwest conifer forest 4 3

1191 Graphic Arts - (Printing) 3 4

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• This profile based on open burning of vegetative debris is being used for trash burning and other SCCs

• Old profile (circa 1970s)• Likely an estimated profile –

not based on actual measurements














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• Consumer products profiles are based on a 1997 survey from CARB

• Composition of products in California may not be representative for other regions of the US (California specific regulations)

• Product composition may have changed in the last 20 years (new regulations and technology)














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• Old profile • Specific for pine,

but SCCs not specific for pine

• Measurement region not necessarily a good representation for country

CONCLUSIONS▪ The most used PM2.5 profiles (on a mass basis) include road dust (paved, unpaved),

fires (prescribed, wild), combustion (natural gas, coal, wood), nonroad gasoline exhaust and charbroiling

▪ The most used VOC profiles (on a mass basis) are much more diverse – graphic arts, open burning, gasoline vapor, spark ignition exhaust, consumer care products (i.e. personal care products, pesticides, household products, ect.)

▪ Many of the profiles used for both PM2.5 and VOC are derived from fairly old measurements and are not applied to the appropriate SCCs

▪ Highest priority profiles for PM2.5 are wildfires and agricultural burning

▪ Highest priority profile for VOC is open burning dump – landscape/pruning

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FUTURE DIRECTIONS ▪ Expand study regions to each NOAA Climate region and conduct analysis again

▪ Add VOC reactivity analysis

▪ For each region, continue project:

▪ Step 4: Determining if there are existing SPECIATE profiles added to SPECIATE versions after SPECIATE4.0 that may be better than what is currently being used or if a composite of existing SPECIATE profiles be better

▪ Step 5: Browse the current literature, including the existing reference list, to identify existing profiles that could satisfy needs identified in step 3 and recommend that those receive high priority for inclusion into SPECIATE.

▪ Step 6: Communicate with ORD and external research community (journal article/presentations at conference, etc.) about high-priority sources for which no appropriate profiles exist in the literature.

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[email protected]

CONTACT INFO:

JUST KIDDING – ASK AWAY☺

mailto:[email protected]

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSSPECIATE WORK GROUP, NEI MODELING GROUP, OAQPS MPG, ACE PROGRAM,

NC STATE AIR QUALITY RESEARCH GROUP

Assessment of important SPECIATE profiles in EPA's ... · Age of profile Appropriateness ......

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