Assessment of externalities from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains ( Work Package 5)
59
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003 Assessment of externalities from major Assessment of externalities from major accidents accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains in non-nuclear fuel chains ( ( Work Work Package 5) Package 5) Stefan Hirschberg & Peter Burgherr Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland Alistair Hunt, University of Bath EESD Energy Project NewExt: Mid-term Assessment Meeting Villigen/Würenlingen, 26/27 May 2003
description
Assessment of externalities from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains ( Work Package 5). Stefan Hirschberg & Peter Burgherr Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland Alistair Hunt, University of Bath. EESD Energy Project NewExt: Mid-term Assessment Meeting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Assessment of externalities from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains ( Work Package 5)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Assessment of externalities from major accidentsAssessment of externalities from major accidents
in non-nuclear fuel chainsin non-nuclear fuel chains((WorkWork Package 5) Package 5)
Stefan Hirschberg & Peter Burgherr
Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
Alistair Hunt, University of Bath
EESD Energy Project NewExt: Mid-term Assessment Meeting
Villigen/Würenlingen, 26/27 May 2003
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
ContentContent
1. Work Performed
2. Final Database and Selected Energy Chain-Specific Results
3. Aggregated Indicators and External Costs
- Impacts
- Valuation
- Estimated Damage Costs
- Remaining (Valuation) Issues
4. Conclusions
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Progress since Paris meeting (Oct 2002)Progress since Paris meeting (Oct 2002)
• Full implementation of database extension to the end of year 2000
• Evaluations based on extended database
• Resolution of valuation issues
• Report in progress
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Resolved issuesResolved issues
• Separation of occupational and public accidents
• Value of statistical life to be used for estimation of accident-related external costs
• Allocation of accidents (some sensitivities examined)
• Importance of smaller accidents (addressed to extent feasible in view of reporting completeness)
• Evaluation of trends (some indications)
• Probabilistic analysis for hydropower (concept and example results)
• Economic valuation (awaiting final results of WP 2; degree of internalization established)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Severe accident definitionSevere accident definition(as used in ENSAD)(as used in ENSAD)
One or several of the following consequences:
•At least 5 fatalities
• At least 10 injured
• At least 200 evacuees
• Extensive ban on consumption of food
• Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10‘000 tonnes
• Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2
• Economic loss of at least 5 million USD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of accidents in ENSADNumber of accidents in ENSAD
7 48
1744
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before 1900 1900-1968 1969-2000 2001-2002 TOTAL
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural disasters vs. man-made accidentsNatural disasters vs. man-made accidents
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Natural Disasters Man-made, Non-energy-related Man-made, Energy-related
Coal Accidents China:1995: 2401997: 268
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural disasters vs. man-made accidentsNatural disasters vs. man-made accidents
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Natural Disaster Man-made, Non-energy-related Man-made, Energy-related
Hydro:Banqiao/Shimantan26000 fatalities
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Overview of accidents by typeOverview of accidents by type
A B C D E H
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A: No consequence thresholdB: C or D or E or HC: at least 5 fatalitiesD: at least 10 injuredE: at least 200 evacueesH: at least 5 Mio USD (2000) of economic loss
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Accidents by continent (>= 5 fatalities)Accidents by continent (>= 5 fatalities)
50.5
49.4
16.0 56.7
20.8
18.7
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Natural Disasters
Non-Energy-Related
Energy-Related
Asia America Africa Europe Oceania
Coal Chain China
Ma
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Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Major accident databases used by ENSADMajor accident databases used by ENSAD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Source composition of natural disastersSource composition of natural disasters
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Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Source composition of man-made Source composition of man-made non-energy-relatednon-energy-related accidents accidents
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Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Source composition of man-made Source composition of man-made energy-relatedenergy-related accidents accidents
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Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
(a) First line: Coal non-OECD w/o China; second line: Coal China (b) Banqiao and Shimantan dam failures together caused 26 000 fatalities
OECD EU-15 Non-OECD
Energy chain Accidents Fatalities Accidents Fatalities Accidents Fatalities
Coal 75 2259 11 234102
1044(a)
483118'017
(a)
Oil 165 3790 58 1141 234 16'523
Natural Gas 80 978 24 229 45 1000
LPG 59 1905 19 515 46 2016
Hydro 1 14 0 0 10 29924 (b)
Severe accidents with at least 5 fatalitiesSevere accidents with at least 5 fatalities
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Energy-related accidents for four gravity indicesEnergy-related accidents for four gravity indices
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>100 fatalities
51 to 100 fatalities
21 to 50 fatalities
5 to 20 fatalities
Data fromCCIY available
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Energy-related accidents for four gravity indicesEnergy-related accidents for four gravity indices
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>100 fatalities
51 to 100 fatalities
21 to 50 fatalities
5 to 20 fatalitiesData from
CCIY available
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Actual vs. reported accidentsActual vs. reported accidents
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Actual Accidents
• There is a discrepancy between the number of accidents that actually occur and those that are published.
• The relatively rare major accidents have a much greater probability of being publicised than the much more frequent accidents that cause less severe damage or danger.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Smaller vs. severe accidentsSmaller vs. severe accidents11
210
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39
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OECD
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China
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Co
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ilN
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GH
ydro
Number of accidents
1to4 fat, other small
1to4 fat, other severe
0 fat, other small
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Smaller vs. severe accidentsSmaller vs. severe accidents25
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32
1
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ilN
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Number of fatalities
1to4 fat, other small
1to4 fat, other severe
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2001)Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2001)
Analysis based on MSHA statistics
** Including one large accident with 13 fatalities
45
38
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30 29
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Accidents Fatalities
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal chain – number of severe accidentsCoal chain – number of severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECD w/o ChinaOECD vs. non-OECD w/o China
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101
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Acc
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OECD non-OECD w/o China
Number of accidents:OECD: 75 (EU15: 11)non-OECD w/o China: 102
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsCoal Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECD w/o ChinaOECD vs. non-OECD w/o China
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6001
96
9
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No
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OECD non-OECD w/o China
Number of fatalities:OECD: 2259 (EU15: 234)non-OECD w/o China: 4831
Kozlu (TUR): 272 fat.Barotean(MEX): 180 fat.
Bulwayo (ZWE): 434 fat.
Dbanbad (Ind): 372 fat.
NA (IND):300 fat.
Cuenca (ECU): 200 fat.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidentsNumber of fatalities in severe accidentsby coal chain stages (1969-2000)by coal chain stages (1969-2000)
0.0
97.5
1.5 1.0 0.00.2
99.2
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24.1
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Dis
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OECD non-OECD w/o China China
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal chain – number of severe accidents in ChinaCoal chain – number of severe accidents in China
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Number of accidents:Total: 10441994-1999: 819
China CoalIndustry Yearbook
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents in ChinaCoal Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents in China
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Number of fatalities:Total: 18'0171994-1999: 11'334
China CoalIndustry Yearbook
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil Chain – number of severe accidentsOil Chain – number of severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECDOECD vs. non-OECD
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OECD non-OECD
Number of accidents:OECD: 165 (EU15: 58)non-OECD: 234
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsOil Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECDOECD vs. non-OECD
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OECD non-OECD
Number of fatalities:OECD: 3790 (EU15: 1141)non-OECD: 16523
Seoul (KOR): 577 fat.
Guadalajara (MEX): 252 fat.
off coast Mindoro (PHL): 4375 fat.
Salang Pass (AFG): 2700 fat. Warri (NIG): 900 fat.
Dronka (EGY): 580 fat.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidentsNumber of fatalities in severe accidentsby oil chain stages (1969-2000)by oil chain stages (1969-2000)
1.2
15.8
29.7
6.0
43.2
0.4 0.23.62.9 1.6
40.7
2.2
49.2
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Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Input of oil to the seaInput of oil to the sea
Source: modified from Committee on Oil in the Sea, 2003
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Pipeline spills
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Operational discharges (vessels >= 100 GT)
Others
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Average annual release (in thousands of tonnes)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Distribution of oil spill accidentsDistribution of oil spill accidents
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
>100'000 t
25'000 - 99'999 t
10'000 -24'999 t
5000 - 9999 t
1000 - 4999 t
Number of accidents
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil spills facts (1969-2000)Oil spills facts (1969-2000)
• 118 offshore and 38 onshore oil spills >10’000 tonnes between 1969
and 2000.
• The biggest spill ever occurred during Gulf War II in 1991 when
between 768’000 and 1’472’000 tonnes spilled from oil terminals and
tankers.
• The second biggest spill occurred over a ten-month period (June
1979 - February 1980) when 480’000 tonnes spilled at the Ixtoc I well
blowout in the Gulf of Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.
• In comparison, the largest tanker spill had a size of about 290’000
tonnes (Sea Empress / Aegean Captain; 1979)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil spills facts (1969-2000) cont.Oil spills facts (1969-2000) cont.
• Overall, few very large spills were responsible for a high percentage
of the total oil spilled in tanker accidents in the period 1969-2000.
• But the magnitude of the impact is primarily depending on distance
to the coast, weather and current conditions, whereas the amount
and type of oil spilled may often be of secondary importance.
• For example, the Exxon Valdez accident (Prince William Sound,
Alaska, USA) in 1989 was relatively small with 37’000 tonnes oil lost,
but it occurred close to the coastline and wind current moved the oil
slick to the beaches leading to an ecological disaster.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Largest tanker spills (1969 – 2000)Largest tanker spills (1969 – 2000)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil spills >10‘000 tonnes (1969 – 2000)Oil spills >10‘000 tonnes (1969 – 2000)
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Offshore Onshore
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil Spills >10‘000 tonnes (1969 – 2000)Oil Spills >10‘000 tonnes (1969 – 2000)
0
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99
20
00
Oil
sp
ille
d i
n t
on
nes
Offshore Onshore Reihe5
Gulf War II: 1'472'000 t
Ixtoc-1: 480'000 tAtlantic Empress/Aegan Captain: 287'000 t
Colombo, StorageDepot: 300'000 t
Vergana Valley,Oil Well: 281'600 t
Kharyaga-UsinskPipeline: 272'800 t
Nowruz 4 Platform:266'700 tCastillo de Bellver:255'500 t
ABT Summer:260'000 t
Amoco Cadiz:228'000 t
w/o Gulf War
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural gas chain – number of severe accidentsNatural gas chain – number of severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECDOECD vs. non-OECD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
81
96
9
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Nu
mb
er o
f ac
cid
ents
OECD non-OECD
Number of accidents:OECD: 80 (EU15: 24)non-OECD: 45
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural gas chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsNatural gas chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECDOECD vs. non-OECD
0
50
100
150
200
2501
96
9
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Nu
mb
er o
f fa
tali
ties
OECD non-OECD
Taegu (KOR): 109 fat.
Osaka (JPN): 92 fat.
Tbilissi (GEO): 100 fat.
Gulf of Thailand (THA): 93 fat.
Tejerias (VEN): 80 fat.Shenzen (CHN): 70 fat.Baohe (CHN): 70 fat.
Number of fatalities:OECD: 978 (EU15: 229)non-OECD: 1000
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidentsNumber of fatalities in severe accidentsby natural gas chain stages (1969-2000)by natural gas chain stages (1969-2000)
0.0
4.4
21.7
39.6
16.6
1.1 0.0
17.9
1.8
11.9
21.0
27.8
0.02.3
16.717.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
Exp
lora
tio
n
Ext
ract
ion
Lo
ng
Dis
tan
ceTr
ansp
ort
Reg
ion
alD
istr
ibu
tio
n
Lo
cal
Dis
trib
uti
on
Hea
tin
g
Po
wer
Pla
nt
NA
Sh
ares
(%
)
OECD non-OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
LPG chain – number of severe accidentsLPG chain – number of severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECDOECD vs. non-OECD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
71
96
9
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Nu
mb
er o
f ac
cid
ents
OECD non-OECD
Number of accidents:OECD: 59 (EU15: 19)non-OECD: 46
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
LPG chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsLPG chain – number of fatalities in severe accidentsOECD vs. non-OECDOECD vs. non-OECD
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
7001
96
9
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Nu
mb
er o
f fa
tali
ties
OECD non-OECD
Seoul (KOR): 169 fat.
Asha-Ufa (RUS): 600 fat.
Nile River /EGY):317 fat.
Los Alfaques (ESP): 216 fat.
Mexico City (MEX): 498 fat.
Number of fatalities:OECD: 1905 (EU15: 515)non-OECD: 2016
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidentsNumber of fatalities in severe accidentsby LPG chain stages (1969-2000)by LPG chain stages (1969-2000)
1.33.5
72.1
0.7
19.1
3.3
9.9
32.6
42.1
2.9
11.8
0.70
20
40
60
80
Processing(Refinery)
LongDistanceTransport
RegionalDistribution
LocalDistribution
Heating NA
Sh
ares
(%
)
OECD non-OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Occupational vs. public accidentsOccupational vs. public accidents
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
OECD
non-OECD w/o China
China
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
Co
alO
ilN
atu
ral
Gas
LP
GH
ydro
Public Occupational
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of severe accidents and aggregated rates (1969-2000)Number of severe accidents and aggregated rates (1969-2000)
Energy Chain
Number of fatalities per GWeyr
Number of severe accidents world-wide with fatalities# accidents / # fatalities
No allocation With allocation
Worldwide OECD Non-OECD
OECD Non-OECD
Coal 1221 / 25'107 0.876 0.157 1.605 0.185 1.576
Oil 399 / 20'313 0.436 0.135 0.898 0.393 0.503
Natural Gas
125 / 1'978 0.093 0.080 0.111 0.091 0.096
LPG 105 / 3'921 3.536 1.957 14.896 3.317 5.112
Hydro (*)
11 / 29'93810 / 3'938
4.2650.561
0.003 10.2851.349
0.003 10.2851.349
Nuclear 1 / 31 6.4·10-3 0 0.048 0 0.048
(*) second line: Banqiao/Shimantan accident with 26‘000 fatalities excluded
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Aggregated fatality rates for severe accidentsAggregated fatality rates for severe accidents
0.157
0.057
0.597
1.605
2.930
6.169
0.135
0.127
0.898
0.080
0.076
0.111
1.957
1.673
14.896
0.003
10.285
1.349
1.E-3 1.E-2 1.E-1 1.E+0 1.E+1 1.E+2
OECD
EU15
non-OECD w/o China
non-OECD with China
China
China 1994-1999
OECD
EU15
non-OECD
OECD
EU15
non-OECD
OECD
EU15
non-OECD
OECD
EU15
non-OECD
non-OECD w/o Banqiao/Shimantan
Co
alO
ilN
atu
ral
Gas
LP
GH
ydro
Fat/GWeyr
NA
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Severe accidents indicatorsSevere accidents indicatorsOECD, EU-15 and non-OECD countriesOECD, EU-15 and non-OECD countries
(no allocation)(no allocation)
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1.E+1
1.E+2
1.E+3O
EC
D
EU
15
no
n-O
EC
D w
/oC
hin
an
on
-OE
CD
wit
hC
hin
a Ch
ina
Ch
ina
1994
-199
9
OE
CD
EU
15
no
n-O
EC
D
OE
CD
EU
15
no
n-O
EC
D
OE
CD
EU
15
no
n-O
EC
D
OE
CD
EU
15
no
n-O
EC
D
no
n-O
EC
D w
/oB
anq
iao
/Sh
iman
tan
OE
CD
EU
15
no
n-O
EC
D
Coal Oil Natural Gas LPG Hydro Nuclear
Aff
ecte
d p
eop
le /
GW
eyr
Fatalities Injured Evacuees
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsOECDOECD, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
Coal Oil Natural Gas LPG Hydro
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsEU-15EU-15, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
Coal Oil Natural Gas LPG Hydro (OECD)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
non-non-OECDOECD, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
Coal w/o China Coal China Oil Natural Gas LPG Hydro
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsCoal chainCoal chain, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
OECD EU15 non-OECD w/o China China China 94-99
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsOil chainOil chain, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000 10000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
OECD EU15 non-OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsNatural gas chainNatural gas chain, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
OECD EU15 non-OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsLPG chainLPG chain, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
OECD EU15 non-OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsFrequency-consequence curves for severe accidentsHydro chainHydro chain, no allocation, 1969-2000, no allocation, 1969-2000
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Fatalities, X
Fre
qu
ency
of
even
ts c
ausi
ng
X o
rm
ore
fat
alit
ies
per
GW
eyr
OECD non-OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
EU-15, no allocationEU-15, no allocationCoal fuel chain - Pulverized coal plant with FGD, 36% eff.
Gas fuel chain - Gas IGCC plant, 58% eff.
ImpactsFat/Mtoe
DamagesCents / kWhe
External Costs Cents / kWhe
Total 2.64 E-2 2.18E-03 4.80E-04
Occupational 2.46 E-2 2.03E-03 4.05E-04
Public 1.80 E-3 1.49E-04 7.44E-05
ImpactsFat/Mtoe
DamagesCents / kWhe
External Costs Cents / kWhe
Total 3.54E-02 1.81E-03 8.65E-04
Occupational 2.79E-03 1.43E-04 2.85E-05
Public 3.27E-02 1.67E-03 8.36E-04
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
CalculationsCalculations
Expected fatalities from severe accidents – Coal fuel chain (0.28 FAT) (1 MTOE) (1 TOE) ( 1 GJt) (3.6 GJe) = 7.00 x 10-8 FAT( 1 MTOE) (10+6 TOE) (40 GJt) (0.36 GJe) ( 1 Mwhe) MWhe Expected fatalities from severe accidents – Gas fuel chain (0.06 FAT ) (1 MTOE) (1 TOE) ( 1 GJt) (3.6 GJe) = 9.31 x 10-9 FAT( 1 MTOE) (10+6 TOE ) (40 GJt) (0.58 GJe) ( 1 Mwhe) MWhe
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Remaining Valuation (and Other) IssuesRemaining Valuation (and Other) Issues
• Valuation of injuries, evacuees and oil spills
• Degree of internalization in non-OECD countries
• Representation of small accidents (discussion, internalization assumed)
• Nuclear energy not adequately treated in ExternE
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Conclusions (I)Conclusions (I)
• Comprehensive historical experience of energy-related
severe accidents based on PSI's ENSAD.
• Damages associated with severe accidents are rather small
compared to natural disasters.
• Statistical basis for OECD countries is much broader than for
EU-15, and considered representative also for the latter.
• Energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are
distinctly higher than in OECD countries.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Conclusions (II)Conclusions (II)
• Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages
within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone.
• Expected fatality rates are lowest for western hydropower
and nuclear power plants. However, the maximum credible
consequences are very large. The associated risk valuation
is subject to stakeholder value judgements and can be
pursued in multi-criteria decision analysis.
• External costs associated with severe accidents are
generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by
air pollution.
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