Contributions of climate change and groundwater extraction ...
Assessment of contributions to climate change Results of phase II
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Assessment of contributions to climate change Results of phase II Bracknell 25 September 2002 Niklas Höhne ECOFYS energy & environment
description
Assessment of contributions to climate change Results of phase II. Bracknell 25 September 2002 Niklas Höhne ECO FYS energy & environment. Questions:. What is the effect of taking non-linearities into account? Which indicators should be used to describe contributions to climate change?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Assessment of contributions to climate change Results of phase II
Assessment of contributions to climate change
Results of phase II
Bracknell25 September 2002
Niklas Höhne ECOFYS energy & environment
Questions:
What is the effect of taking non-linearities into account?
Which indicators should be used to describe contributions to climate change?
Simplified cause-effect chainfrom emissions to climate change
Emissions N2O
Concentrations N2O
Emissions CH4
Concentrations CH4
Emissions CO2
Concentrations CO2
Radiative forcing
Temperature change
Damages
...
...
Effect of peak emissions
Radiative forcing
Global CO2 emissions
Concentrations
Temperature increase
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
1
2
3x 10
8
Gg
Pulse emissions of 2E7 Gg CO2
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
1000
2000
ppm
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
10
20
W/m
2
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
5
10
°C
Years
Effect of peak emissions
Radiative forcing
Global CO2 emissions
Concentrations
Temperature increase
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
1
2x 10
7
Gg
Pulse emissions of 2E7 Gg CO2
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
2
4
ppm
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
0.05
W/m
2
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
0.01
0.02
°C
Years
ConclusionsNon-linearities
Including non-linearities • Realistic representation of the climate system• Counting ‘late’ emissions substantially less
Not including non-linearities• Unrealistic representation of the climate system• Counting all emissions independent of emissions
of others - ‘all emissions are equal’
Simplified cause-effect chainfrom emissions to climate change
Emissions N2O
Concentrations N2O
Emissions CH4
Concentrations CH4
Emissions CO2
Concentrations CO2
Radiative forcing
Temperature change
Damages
...
...
Characteristics of indicators
• Certain and simple -> Near top of cause-effect chain• Close to impacts -> Near bottom of cause-effect
chain
• ‘Backward looking’: Taking into account the path of historical emissions
• ‘Backward discounting’: Weighing less what was emitted longer ago
• ‘Forward looking’: Accounting for the effects that occur in the years after emission
• Comparable for all greenhouse gases
Indicators for historical responsibility
Time
Radiative forcing
Time
Emissions
Time
Time
A B
CEF
Time Time
Concentrations
Comparison
Backward Backward Forwardlooking discounting looking
Current radiative forcing - - -
Current GWP-weighted - - Xemissions
Radiative forcing from X X -increased concentrations
Cumulative GWP-weighted X - Xemissions
Weighted concentrations X X X
Temperature increase X X - also discounting most
recent emissions
Time
A
Time
B
C
D
E
F
ConclusionsIndicators
• Several for historical responsibility for climate change are available
• Of those considered only one (weighted concentrations) is ‘backward looking’, ‘backward discounting’ and ‘forward looking’
• Use a simple indicators ????Time
A
Time
BC
D E F
Current radiative forcing of current emissions
Time
A
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
Wy/
m2
N2OCH4Forest CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
Wy/
m2
ALM (8.4% in 1995)ASIA (30% in 1995)REF (17% in 1995)OECD90 (45% in 1995)
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04W
/m2
ALM (16% in 1995)ASIA (35% in 1995)REF (15% in 1995)OECD90 (34% in 1995)
Fossil and industrial CO2
All gases
GWP-weighted emissions
Time
B
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Wy/
m2
N2OCH4Forest CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Wy/
m2
ALM (8.4% in 1995)ASIA (30% in 1995)REF (17% in 1995)OECD90 (45% in 1995)
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
W/m
2
ALM (15% in 1995)ASIA (33% in 1995)REF (15% in 1995)OECD90 (38% in 1995)
Fossil and industrial CO2
All gases
Radiative forcing due to increased concentrations
C
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.5
1
1.5
2
Wy/
m2
N2OCH4Forest CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Wy/
m2
ALM (6.6% in 1995)ASIA (18% in 1995)REF (19% in 1995)OECD90 (57% in 1995)
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
W/m
2
ALM (18% in 1995)ASIA (24% in 1995)REF (16% in 1995)OECD90 (42% in 1995)
Fossil and industrial CO2
All gases
Cumulative GWP-weighted emissions
D
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
50
100
150
200
Wy/
m2
N2OCH4Forest CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
10
20
30
40
50
60
Wy/
m2
ALM (6.1% in 1995)ASIA (15% in 1995)REF (18% in 1995)OECD90 (61% in 1995)
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
W/m
2ALM (18% in 1995)ASIA (24% in 1995)REF (13% in 1995)OECD90 (44% in 1995)
Fossil and industrial CO2
All gases
Weighted concentrations
E
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Wy/
m2
N2OCH4Forest CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
5
10
15
20
25
30
Wy/
m2
ALM (6.6% in 1995)ASIA (18% in 1995)REF (19% in 1995)OECD90 (57% in 1995)
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
W/m
2
ALM (19% in 1995)ASIA (22% in 1995)REF (15% in 1995)OECD90 (44% in 1995)
Fossil and industrial CO2
All gases
Temperature increaseBrazilian Proposal
F
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
°C
N2OCH4Forest CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
°C
ALM (6.2% in 1995)ASIA (15% in 1995)REF (19% in 1995)OECD90 (60% in 1995)
1900 1920 1940 1960 19800
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
°C
ALM (19% in 1995)ASIA (23% in 1995)REF (15% in 1995)OECD90 (43% in 1995)
Fossil and industrial CO2
All gases
