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Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change

A Key Tool for Adaptation Planning

Bruce A. Stein, Ph.D.

Associate Director,

Wildlife Conservation and Global Warming

NWF-FWS Climate Change and Wildlife

Webinar Series

January 28, 2010

What’s at Stake

• United States is a global center of

diversity for many organisms

• World leader for salamanders,

freshwater mussels, crayfish,

among others

• Temperate leader for fish diversity

• Second only to China for

gymnosperm plants (conifers, etc.)

• More than 200,000 documented

species

– Many more yet to be discovered

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Conservation Status of US Species

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Birds

Mammals

Butterflies/ Skippers

Reptiles

Dragonflies/ Damselflies

Tiger Beetles

Ferns/Fern Allies

Gymnosperms

Flowering Plants

Freshwater Fishes

Amphibians

Crayfish

Freshwater Mussels

Vulnerable (G3)

Imperiled (G2)

Critically Imperiled (G1)

Presumed/Possibly Extinct

(GX/GH)

Source: Stein et al. 2000 based on NatureServe data.

Analysis includes 20,897 species.

State Patterns of Diversity and Risk

Diversity

Risk(% GX-G3)

ExtinctionSource: Stein 2002,

based on NatureServe data

State Patterns of Diversity and Risk

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Hot Spots of Restricted Range Species

Federal Lands and At-Risk Species

Source: Stein et al. 2008

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Key Threats to Biodiversity

• Habitat Loss

• Invasive species

• Altered ecosystem

functions

– fire regimes

– hydrologic flows

• Emerging diseases

• Climate change

Photo: Larry Master

Arctic summer sea ice, Sept. 2007. Source: NASA

Climate Change Impacts:

Loss of Sea Ice

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Mountain Pine Beetle Damage, ColoradoPhoto: Allen L. Thornton

Old Growth Tree Mortalityvan Mantgem et al. (2009)

Ecosystem Disruptions

Shifting plant hardiness zones

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Decreasing Snowpack

Rising Sea Levels

Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge

Source: NWF SLAMM Projections

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More Extreme Weather Events

Hurricane Katrina

Human Responses to Global Warming

• Mitigation– Addresses causes of global warming

– Focus on reducing greenhouse gas

emissions

• Adaptation– Addresses impacts of global warming

pollution on people and ecosystems

– Focus on safeguards or coping strategies

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Adaptation – What Is It?

• Resilience and Resistance

• Anticipatory and Reactive Measures

• Human and Natural Systems

• Facilitating Change, Embracing

Uncertainty

Initiatives and measures designed to

reduce the vulnerability of natural

and human systems against actual

or expected climate changes

Creating “Climate-Smart” Conservation

• Science and practice of adaptation still in early

stages of development

• Essential to be able to answer :

– “What should we be doing differently?”

• Need to guard against relabeling/justifying all

existing projects as adaptation

– Must go through climate-specific analyses

• Vulnerability assessments key to determining

what is “climate-smart”

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What is Vulnerability?

The likelihood that

climate-induced shifts

will have an adverse

impact on a given

species, habitat, or

ecosystem. Louisiana coastal wetland, Photo NRCS

American pika, Photo Alan Wilson

Why Carry Out Vulnerability Assessments?

• Identify species and systems most in need of

conservation actions due to climate change

• Develop adaptation strategies tailored for managing

species and habitats in greatest need

• Foster collaboration by providing a shared

understanding of impacts and management options

• Efficient allocation of scarce resources for wildlife

adaptation

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Developing Guidance on Vulnerability Assessment

Experts Working Group

Quick Guide

Vulnerability Assessment Workgroup

Members

• Naomi Edelson (NWF) -- chair

• Rocky Beach (Wash Fish & Game)

• Arpita Choudhury (AFWA)

• Molly Cross (WCS)

• Carolyn Enquist (TNC)

• Deborah Finch (USFS)

• Hector Galbraith (Manomet)

• Evan Girvetz (TNC)

• Patty Glick (NWF)

• Nancy Green (FWS)

• John Gross (NPS)

• Katherine Hayhoe (TX Tech)

• Jennie Hoffman (EcoAdapt)

• Doug Inkley (NWF)

• Bruce Jones (USGS)

• Linda Joyce (USFS)

• Josh Lawler (Univ Wash)

• Dennis Ojima (Heinz Center)

• John O’Leary (Mass Fish &

Wildlife)

• Bruce Stein (NWF)

• Bruce Young (NatureServe)

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Components of Vulnerability

• Sensitivity

• Exposure

• Capacity to Adapt

Sensitivity

• Measure of whether

and how a species or

system is likely to be

affected by a given

change in climate.

– For sunburn, amount of

melanin in skin is key

physiological factor

– Melanin absorbs UV rays,

which cause sunburn

– Skin with lower melanin

levels is more sensitive to

sunburn

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Exposure

• Measure of how much

of a change in climate

or other environmental

factor a species or

system is likely to

experience

– For sunburn, the amount of

UV rays determines exposure

– Strength of rays depends on

latitude, season & weather

– With enough exposure, most

anybody can burn

Adaptive Capacity• Ability to accommodate or

cope with climate change

impacts with minimal

disruption.

– Can be intrinsic (reduce

sensitivity) or extrinsic (reduce

exposure)

– For sunburn, extrinsic

adaptations includes sunblock,

protective clothes, shelter

– Intrinsic adaptations include UV-

induced increase in melanin

production (i.e., tanning )

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Vulnerability Assessment Framework

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential

Impact

Adaptive

Capacity

Vulnerability

Assessing SensitivityFocus on Intrinsic Factors

• Specialized habitat or microhabitat

requirements

• Narrow environmental tolerances

or physiological thresholds

• Dependence on specific

environmental triggers

• Dependence on interactions with

other species

• Poor dispersal ability

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Assessing ExposureFocus on Extrinsic Factors

• Climate models

– shifts in temperature,

precipitation

– Increasing availability of finer

scale data (e.g., downscaling)

Downscaled climate dataClimateWizard

Assessing Exposure

• Ecological Response Models

– e.g., dynamic vegetation change models

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Adaptive Capacity

• IPCC defines as:

– The ability of a system to adjust to climate change, to moderate

potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope

with the consequences.

• If intrinsic, however, often considered under

sensitivity.

• If extrinsic, then can be considered a

management or adaptation response.

• Rate is an important consideration

Overarching Considerations for

Vulnerability Assessment

• User needs, decision processes

• Conservation targets

– Species, habitats, ecosystem, ecosystem service

• Spatial scale, level of specificity required

• Available data and expertise

• Levels of confidence/uncertainty

• Cost and time available

Various approaches available:

No one-size fits all

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Major Approaches

• Expert opinion

– usually based on literature, existing data products, prior

knowledge

– often use delphi-type processes

– can be relatively rapid; often has broad stakeholder

engagement

• Model-based

– computationally and data intensive

– often use climate envelope-type models or other

ecological response models

– often produces spatially explicit outputs

– can require substantial expertise, time, and cost

Massachusetts Manomet Center for Conservation Science

& Mass Fish and Game

Habitat Vulnerability to Climate Change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Spru

ce-f

ir

fore

st

Nort

hern

hard

wood

fore

st

Soth

ern

/centr

al

hard

wood

fore

st

Pitch p

ine-

scru

b o

ak

fore

st

Cold

wate

r

rivers

, str

eam

s

Larg

e c

old

wate

r la

kes

sm

alle

r cold

wate

r la

kes,

ponds

Kett

le p

onds

Warm

wate

r

rivers

, la

kes,

ponds

Connecticut

and M

err

ack

main

ste

ms

Atlantic w

hite

cedar

sw

am

p

Shru

b s

wam

p

Vern

al pools

Bore

al sw

am

p

Hard

wood

sw

am

p

Habitat

Vu

lnera

bil

ity s

co

re

Habitat-focused assessment

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NevadaNatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index

Species-focused assessment

New MexicoNature Conservancy

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Pacific NorthwestUniversity of Washington et al.

• Projected change maps

– Climate

– Vegetation

– Birds and mammals

• Protected Area Analysis

• Modified Wildlife Action Plans

Role in Adaptation Planning

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Strategic Habitat Conservation

Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner?

• Traditional conservation

focus on maintaining/

restoring to historical

condition

• Tendency to focus on what

sites will lose in the face of

climate change

• Will be important to look

towards what ecological

value site may have in future

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Applying Results of Vulnerability Assessments

• Ideally tells you both what things

are most vulnerability and why

– Understanding the why assists in

determining possible management/

adaptation responses

– Ultimately, choice of how to respond will

be based on a combination of values,

feasible options, and cost

– Adaptation choices will need to balance

species and habitats with high likelihood of

long-term survival, and those most

vulnerable

Addressing Confidence

• Three types of uncertainty

– Climate predictions

– Ecological responses

– Management effectiveness

• Uncertainty is common in many things

– Oftentimes too much focus on uncertainty

– Need to distinguish between directionality and

magnitude of change

– Shift frame to expressing in terms of confidence

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Tips for

Conducting Vulnerability Assessments

• Begin with a clear

understanding of user

needs

• Determine the target of

the assessment

• Design assessment

products with stakeholder

input

Tips for Assessments, cont.

• Determine the spatial and/or temporal scale

of the assessment

• Collaborate with regional experts

– opportunity for LCC collaboratives

• Build from existing efforts

– link to state wildlife action plan update efforts

• Weigh budget and time constraints when

selecting tools and methods

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Tips for Assessment, cont.

• Understand, describe, and if possible

quantify uncertainties

• Design the assessment so it can be easily

repeated

• Share the information about your process

and results

The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be