Assessing the Potenrial Impacts of Climate Chance on Belize's Water Resources
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Transcript of Assessing the Potenrial Impacts of Climate Chance on Belize's Water Resources
UB Environmental Research Institute & CATHALAC
Dr. Elma Kay & Emil Cherrington
23.07.14
Guate
mala
• Determine current demand for and supply of water in Belize’s major and minor watersheds
• Assess future supply and
demand against the range of future land use scenarios and future CC scenarios
Guate
mala
• Examine how water quality might change as a result of CC and land use change scenarios
• Develop sustained capacity
within Belizean institutions to iteratively model / assess climate change impacts on water resources and in other sectors
Capacity-building workshops for UB ERI and stakeholders
Technical and scientific paper
Policy paper/Decision-maker Summary for Belize National Climate Change Committee
Short video for dissemination to the wider public
ALL 3 AR4 models show declines in precipitation for 2050s, relative to current rates ◦ By 2050s, only Hadley Centre model shows
substantial declines in precipitation (A2,B2)
All 5 AR5 models evaluated are generally negative in terms of rainfall outlook for Belize, across RCPs
1. Business as usual,
no PAs
2. Business as usual,
with PAs
3. Deforestation
rate halved
4. Deforestation
rate doubled
2050
Estimates of change in availability of surface water quantity as assessed by runoff (m3) vary
In general, a linear relationship: in scenarios with ↓ rainfall, ↓ in runoff
But ↑ deforestation also leads to ↑ runoff
Estimates of change in water quality as assessed by sediment concentration (kg/L) vary
But while rainfall ↓, higher sediment due to ↑ deforestation
Present results at local and regional conferences
Make all outputs available online through UB ERI and partner websites and FB pages, and distribute electronically by target group
Champion Policy Paper to Belize National Climate Change Committee (BNCCC) for integration of results into the new Climate Change Policy